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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 919 records · Page 51
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Modeling and Process-Materials Co-Optimization Strategies for Swing Adsorption Based Gas Separations

This project devised a computational framework for simultaneously co-optimizing pressure swing adsorption process designs along with the sorbent materials (specifically, metal-organic frameworks) to be employed in the associated packed bed columns. The materials optimization aspect involved search over a design space that can describe the material’s molecular structure, while the process optimization aspect considered various process degrees of freedom for steps arising in various cycle configurations. This framework was demonstrated on the separation of nitrogen and carbon dioxide, which arises ubiquitously in a multitude of post-combustion carbon capture and “blue” hydrogen production applications. Our results led to metal-organic framework molecular descriptor choices that are predicted to outperform standard structures used in practice, providing guidance for future metal-organic framework synthesis efforts.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Universal Solvent Viscosity Reduction via Hydrogen Bonding Disruptors

Liquid Ion Solutions LLC (DBA RoCo Global) in partnership with Carnegie Mellon University and Carbon Capture Scientific LLC, has performed lab-scale development and evaluation of novel additives that lower the viscosity of water-lean amine solvents for post-combustion carbon dioxide capture. This project focuses on developing additives that minimize the formation of long-range electrostatic and hydrogen bonding (HB) networks, decreasing the solvent viscosity, improving diffusion, and improving the process economics. The project objectives included: 1) performing computer simulation to understand the molecular interactions of the additive molecules in water-lean CO 2 capture solvents, 2) design and synthesis of HB disruptors additives, 3) performance testing with additive molecules on model amine solvents, and 4) demonstration of the effectiveness of the optimized additives in the presence of synthetic flue gas. To meet the abovementioned objectives, the project team utilized a holistic approach that combines molecular simulation, experimental testing, and economic analysis studies. The project team developed ab initio molecular model and then perform computer simulation to develop relationship between hydrogen bonding, viscosity, and performed quantitative analysis of additive on the viscosity of the solvent. The team completed computational comparative study on a range of organic functional groups such as ethers, esters, cyclic carbonates, alkanes, and ammonium salts for their effect on viscosity gaining key insights into molecular interactions and the impact of various functional groups and molecular shapes on viscosity. Assisted with molecular simulation insights, the project team conducted additive synthesis and testing, including a proof-of-concept study, additive screening, optimization, and synthetic flue gas testing. The experimental proof-of-concept study proved that the hydrogen bonding acceptors result in significant decrease of viscosities. Detailed additive screening (exploring various functionalities and molecular structures) has been performed. Several promising additives showed excellent reduction in viscosity (30-41%) at 5% additive loading, and over 50% viscosity reduction at 10% additive loading for the model solvents. The team also performed complex screening studies on additive loadings and mixing effect among additives using the design of experiments. Based on multiple screening experiments, one additive-solvent candidate was down-selected for synthetic flue gas testing. A 100-hour continuous absorption/desorption study was conducted under simulated flue gas using a lab-scale continuous capture and separation system. No degradation (for both solvent and additive) was observed based on the GC results of the solvent samples collected from the continuous study. The team conducted preliminary engineering analyses and cost-benefit analyses to quantify the potential economic benefits of the additive approach for solvent viscosity reduction. Based on the experimental data, CO 2 capture cost savings from the capital and operating cost savings are estimated at $\$$4.7/tonne and $\$$0.3/tonne CO 2 captured, respectively. Considering the additive cost, the net benefit is estimated to be between $\$$4.32~$\$$4.86/tonne CO 2 captured.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computational design of high entropy alloy coating for hydrogen turbine applications

This project aims to develop novel high entropy alloy (HEA)-based coatings to protect critical components in hydrogen-fueled turbine power system. The HEA-coatings will demonstrate superior performance in hydrogen combustion environment to commercial NiCoCrAlY coating in current natural gas turbine system. The HEA coating facilitates the formation of a protective scale of alpha-alumina to slow down the inward diffusion of oxidizing species and the outward diffusion of metal elements, and possesses ultrahigh corrosion and spallation resistance to prolong the service lifetime of critical components in hydrogen turbine power system. Aimed to accelerate the discovery of novel HEA coating compositions, high throughput computational modeling including CALPHAD and density functional theory and machine learning are performed to predict phase stability, oxygen permeability, oxidation rate constant, coefficient of thermal expansion, and mechanical properties. Based on the modeling and machine learning prediction, experimental validation is performed. Preliminary results will be presented and approaches to minimize oxidation will be discussed.

alloy design↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and code from: Multivariate bayesian regression model for predicting disposed ash composition at U.S. coal fired power stations

This dataset contains the code and data files needed for implementation of a Multivariate Bayesian Regression model, described in Jin et al. (2025), for the historical prediction of the chemical composition of disposed coal ash at U.S. coal fired power plants as a function of annualized coal purchase data. The integrated coal supply data file (CoalSupplyDataset.csv) represents a compilation of monthly fuel purchase records for the period 1973-2022 at major U.S. power stations. These records were obtained from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The CSV file also contains, for each coal purchase record, the coal region of the mine as defined by the U.S. Geological Survey. Data entry errors and data gaps in the EIA records were corrected as described in Jin et al. This CSV file represents the integrated coal supply data after corrections were made. The model structure and fitting parameters are encoded in pickle file format (Bayesian.pkl). The model was developed with the coal supply data and coal ash composition data, apportioned according to the Stratified Shuffle Split for training and testing subsets. The model was built using Python and the PyMC library. Reference Publication: Jin, Z.; Huang, J.; Hower, J.C.; Hsu-Kim, H.(2025). Predictive Assessment of the Chemical Composition of Coal Ash in Reserve at U.S. Disposal Sites. Environmental Science & Technology.

Coal ash composition↗
DOE OSTI2020

Patterns of Trace Element Accumulation in Waterfowl Restricted to Impoundments Holding Coal Combustion Waste

Waterfowl are often exposed to and readily accumulate anthropogenic contaminants when foraging in polluted environments. Settling impoundments containing coal combustion waste (CCW) enriched in trace elements such as arsenic (As), selenium (Se), and mercury (Hg) are often used by free-ranging migratory and resident waterfowl and represent potential sources for contaminant uptake. To assess accumulation of CCW contaminants, we experimentally restricted waterfowl to a CCW-contaminated impoundment and quantified trace element burdens in blood, muscle, and liver tissues over known periods of exposure (between 3 and 92 d). From these data we developed models 1) to predict elemental bioaccumulation with increased exposure time, and 2) to predict muscle/liver burdens based on concentrations in blood as a nondestructive sampling method. Although Hg and As did not bioaccumulate in our waterfowl, we observed an increase in Se concentrations in muscle, liver, and blood tissues over the duration of our experiment. Furthermore, we found that blood may be used as an effective nondestructive sampling alternative to predict muscle and liver tissue concentrations in birds contaminated with Se and As through dietary exposure. These data provide unique insights into accumulation rates of contaminants for waterfowl utilizing habitats contaminated with CCW and demonstrate the efficacy of nonlethal sampling of waterfowl to quantify contaminant exposure. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:1052–1059.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Realistic operation of two residential cordwood-fired outdoor hydronic heater appliances—Part 3: Optical properties of black and brown carbon emissions

Residential biomass combustion is a source of carbonaceous aerosol. Inefficient combustion, particularly of solid fuels produces large quantities of black and brown carbon (BC and BrC). These particle types are important as they have noted effects on climate forcing and human health. One method of measuring these quantities is by measurement of aerosol light-absorption and scattering, which can be performed using an aethalometer and nephelometer, respectively. These instruments are widely deployed in the study of ambient air and are frequently used in air quality modeling and source apportionment studies. In this study, we will describe (1) a method for measuring primary BC and BrC emissions from two residential log-fired wood hydronic heaters and (2) the BC and BrC emission from these devices over a wide range of operating conditions, such as cold-starts, warm-starts, four different levels of output ranging from 15% to 100% maximum rated output, and periods of repeated cycling. The range in flue-gas BC concentrations, measured using an aethalometer at the 880 nanometer (nm) wavelength, were between 5.09 × 10 2 and 2.24 × 10 4 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m 3 ) while the scattering coefficient of the flue-gas, measured by a nephelometer at 880 nm, ranged between 2.20 × 10 3 and 8.56 × 10 5 inverse megameters (Mm –1 ). The BrC concentrations, measured using the 370 nm wavelength of an aethalometer, were between 9.10 × 10 1 and 3.56 × 10 4 µg/m 3 . The calculated Angstrom Absorption Exponent (AAE) of the flue-gas aerosol ranged between 1.54 and 3.63. Performing a comparison between the measured BC concentration and an external particulate matter (PM) concentration showed that overall BC makes up roughly a quarter of the PM emitted by either of the two appliances. Further for both appliances, the cold-start and the test phase immediately following it had the highest BC and BrC concentrations, the highest measured scattering coefficient, as well as a low AAE.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative Study for Pressure Gain Combustion-Gas Turbine System Performance in NGCC Configurations

The Department of Energy (DOE) has a goal to increase natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plant efficiency to greater than 70 percent on a lower heating value (LHV) basis. Improvement in gas turbine (GT) efficiency is key achieving this goal. While many of the traditional improvement methods (higher firing temperature, advanced materials, improved cooling methods, etc.) may increase current GT and NGCC efficiencies incrementally, combining these traditional advancements with breakthrough technologies such as pressure gain combustion (PGC) may provide significant system efficiency gains. PGC is a combustion process that results in a net pressure increase across the combustor (up to pressure ratio of 2.2) rather than the traditional (<5%) pressure drop. There are multiple PGC technologies being developed that create the pressure rise phenomena, including resonant pulse combustors (RPCs), pulse detonation engines (PDEs), wave rotor combustor (WRC) engines and rotating detonation engines (RDEs). In this study, scoping analyses of PGC concepts applied to NGCC power plants were performed by combining simplified analytical models for the RPC, PDE, WRC, and RDE types of pressure gain processes with a GT model to evaluate impacts of using each of the PGC technologies on key GT performance parameters. Sensitivity analyses were also performed. Ultimately, the PGC technologies were found to have the potential to increase simple cycle efficiency by 4–6 percent (absolute) and NGCC efficiency by 2–3 percent (absolute) based on the results of the current study.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational Analysis of the Impact of Boundary Conditions on a Particle-Laden Flow: A Case Study in a Pressurized Oxy-Coal Combustor

Designing an effective burner is vital for the development of coal combustion technologies. Because of high pressure, the volumetric fraction of the coal particles in the injected fuel in a pressurized oxy-combustion (POC) burner approaches or even exceeds the limitations allowed by the commercial computational fluid dynamics codes (e.g., Ansys Fluent). Consequently, for such high particle volumetric fractions, the interplay between the particles, the fluid flow, and the burner wall needs to be re-evaluated. The present computational work is a first step in a systematic analysis of the roles of various characteristics involved in the POC process, such as the method of particle release, its location, and the particle size. Specifically, pulverized coal is burned under an elevated pressure of 15 bar in an O 2 /CO 2 environment. A 100 kW, a POC combustor, is modeled with Ansys Fluent using the Reynolds-averaged Navier−Stokes approach. It is revealed that for this pilot-scale, pressurized burner, the gas phase flow velocity in the near-wall region exhibits anomalies. With the major focus on POC, this work aims to eliminate/reduce the impact of high particle loading on the gas-phase flow. To scrutinize the role of particle loading in the near-wall region and eliminate the impact of this velocity on POC downstream, the particle−gas interplay in the boundary layer is investigated by means of the computational simulations incorporating the coupling between the turbulent flow and the particles. It is found that the tuning of the particle release location makes the gas-phase flow velocity in the presence of particles consistent with the pure gas flow velocity profile. The particles size is also found to have a significant impact on the particle trajectory.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid Large Eddy Simulation/Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes Analysis of a Premixed Ethylene-Fueled Dual-Mode Scramjet Combustor

Hydrocarbon fuels offer optimal high energy per volume for scramjet applications for sustained hypersonic flight but require additional residence time due to slower ignition delays (compared with hydrogen fuel). The injection of ethylene at the start of the isolator of a dual-mode scramjet combustor, operating in ramjet mode, allows sufficient mixing to achieve efficient premixed turbulent combustion. A cavity flameholder anchors the flame, supplying sufficient radicals to sustain a stable flame in the high-speed environment. This work investigates flame structure and stabilization limits of a new configuration with a scaled-down cavity embedded in the flow path of the combustor with a strut and insert. The cavity is reduced in size by one-third to enable eventual direct numerical simulations of the flame stabilization process. This work, however, focuses on modeling the full isolator/combustor geometry using a hybrid large eddy simulation/Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulation strategy. Additionally, particle image velocimetry, planar laser-induced fluorescence, coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy, and pressure measurements are compared with numerical predictions to analyze and characterize the conditions within the combustor, including flame structure, flow velocities, species composition, and wall pressure. An adjustable air throttle in the extender is able to control the placement of the shock train in the isolator and maintain a stable flame at various equivalence ratios. The simulations show reasonably good agreement with the experimental scalar and velocity data and predict a flame angle consistent with premixed turbulent flame-speed correlations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lagrangian analysis for turbulent transport in variable-density turbulence

In this report Lagrangian analysis of materially conserved scalars is applied to the problem of turbulent transport in variable-density flows. The consequences of an additional material conserved quantity, the density, is generally not acknowledged and leads to significant and meaningfully different expressions for turbulent transport in the moment equations. The formal Lagrangian analysis produces gradient transport expressions substantially different from those obtained by the physically intuitive “argument by analogy” method used in computational models. Various intuitive arguments, in Favre and Reynolds averaged settings, are contrasted to the formal Lagrangian results. Using expressions from the formal analysis, we derive consistent gradient transport closures for the turbulent transport terms that appear in the first- and second-order Favre moment equations. Results for coupled multispecies turbulent transport are given. The analysis is limited to variable-density turbulence in which the dilatation of the fluctuating velocity is small. The results are applicable to turbulent combustion and to stellar convection problems in which the density fluctuations are on the order of the mean density.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Study of Variable Fuel-Air Ratio and Hydrogen Doping in a Rotating Detonation Engine

Rotating detonation engines (RDEs) hold great promise as a technology for powering aviation engines. The pressure gain that results from continuously traversing detonation waves enables high theoretical performance compared to deflagration-based combustion. However, the harsh operating conditions inside an RDE restrict the availability of suitable experimental diagnostics to study these systems in detail and the range of spatial and temporal scales render numerical simulations of these systems difficult. In this study, we have combined adaptive mesh refinement and a robust shock-capturing approach to study RDE systems computationally using the compressible, reactive solver PeleC. Multi-species transport along with compressible Navier-Stokes equations are solved in the model along with finite-rate chemistry. Complex geometries are represented using an embedded boundary method with second-order spatial accuracy and the system is evolved in time using a second-order Runge-Kutta method. We present studies of a methane-air RDE system that is doped with varying levels of hydrogen. Our analysis focusses on how fuel mixture and doping levels effect the detonation flame structure and the generation of multiple wave modes.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Bond Dissociations of Reactive Machine Learning Potentials through Physics-Constrained Data Augmentation

In the field of computational chemistry, predicting bond dissociation energies (BDEs) presents well-known challenges, particularly due to the multireference character of reactive systems. Many chemical reactions involve configurations where single-reference methods fall short, as the electronic structure can significantly change during bond breaking. As generating training data for partially broken bonds is a challenging task, even state-of-the-art reactive machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) often fail to predict reliable BDEs and smooth dissociation curves. By contrast, simple and inexpensive physics-based models, such as the well-established Morse potential, do not suffer from any such limitations. This work leverages the Morse potential to improve reactive MLIPs by augmenting the training data set with inexpensive Morse data along the dissociation pathways. Further, this physics-constrained data augmentation (PCDA) approach results in MLIPs with smooth bond dissociation curves as well as near coupled-cluster level BDEs, all without requiring any expensive multireference quantum mechanical calculations. A case study for methane combustion demonstrates how the PCDA approach can improve an existing reactive MLIP, namely, ANI-1xnr. In conclusion, not only are the BDEs and bond dissociation curves for all radicals and molecules significantly improved compared to ANI-1xnr but the PCDA-trained MLIP retains the reliability of ANI-1xnr when performing reactive molecular dynamics simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Understanding Transient Combustion Phenomena in Low-NO x Gas Turbines

The goal of this work was to understand, quantify, and eventually predict combustion instability during operational transients in low-NO x gas turbine combustors. Transient operation is defined as a mode where one or more key operating parameters, including equivalence ratio, fuel composition, or fuel splitting between nozzles in a combustor, are varying in time. The timescale over which this variation occurs will be referred to as the transient timescale, the magnitude of the change in the transient parameter will be referred to as the transient amplitude, and the direction of the variation will be referred to as the transient direction. Transients occur regularly in power generation gas turbine operation. For example, load-following gas turbines vary load to meet power demands while accounting for variation in unsteady grid contributors like wind and solar power. Operators achieve this by varying equivalence ratio and fuel splitting inside the combustors to produce more or less power. Another example of transient operation is during fuel-switching operations, a particular issue for turbines operating with syngas fuels in a co-generation facility. In this case, the composition of the fuel stream may vary in time either as a result of fluctuations in the pipeline, or in the case of a co-generation plant, variations in feedstock or gasification processes. This fluctuation in fuel composition can have significant implications for combustion processes, particularly with high-hydrogen fuels. A small number of studies have investigated transient behavior in gas turbine combustors, particularly in the context of flame blow-off; here, investigators have typically focused on issues of transient amplitude, though without the depth and physics-based experimental design that is proposed in this program. To our knowledge, there have been no studies that have quantified the impact of the transient timescale on combustion. The work helped us understand the impact of several types of transients on combustion stability. Both static and dynamic combustion stability will be considered. The transients will be quantified using their amplitude, direction, and timescale, and we will consider transients in equivalence ratio, fuel composition, and fuel splitting. There were two main objectives of this work: 1. Provide a fundamental understanding of combustion stability during transient operation using data obtained from a number of high-speed diagnostic techniques on experimental configurations that capture important gas turbine combustor features and operating conditions. This goal was met in conjunction with our industrial partner, GE Global Research, with whom we worked closely throughout the program. 2. Develop a stability prediction framework that will allow for the prediction, and possible control, of instabilities as a function of the transient amplitude, direction, and timescale. This input/output model should be physics-based and allow for screening of operating conditions and prediction of unstable behavior at the end of a transient by monitoring combustor health and precursor signals during operation.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of fire and fire-induced changes in soil properties on post-burn soil respiration

Boreal forests cover vast areas of land in the northern hemisphere and store large amounts of carbon (C) both aboveground and belowground. Wildfires, which are a primary ecosystem disturbance of boreal forests, affect soil C via combustion and transformation of organic matter during the fire itself and via changes in plant growth and microbial activity post-fire. Wildfire regimes in many areas of the boreal forests of North America are shifting towards more frequent and severe fires driven by changing climate. As wildfire regimes shift and the effects of fire on belowground microbial community composition are becoming clearer, there is a need to link fire-induced changes in soil properties to changes in microbial functions, such as respiration, in order to better predict the impact of future fires on C cycling. We used laboratory burns to simulate boreal crown fires on both organic-rich and sandy soil cores collected from Wood Buffalo National Park, Alberta, Canada, to measure the effects of burning on soil properties including pH, total C, and total nitrogen (N). We used 70-day soil incubations and two-pool exponential decay models to characterize the impacts of burning and its resulting changes in soil properties on soil respiration. Laboratory burns successfully captured a range of soil temperatures that were realistic for natural wildfire events. We found that burning increased pH and caused small decreases in C:N in organic soil. Overall, respiration per gram total (post-burn) C in burned soil cores was 16% lower than in corresponding unburned control cores, indicating that soil C lost during a burn may be partially offset by burn-induced decreases in respiration rates. Simultaneously, burning altered how remaining C cycled, causing an increase in the proportion of C represented in the modeled slow-cycling vs. fast-cycling C pool as well as an increase in fast-cycling C decomposition rates. Together, our findings imply that C storage in boreal forests following wildfires will be driven by the combination of C losses during the fire itself as well as fire-induced changes to the soil C pool that modulate post-fire respiration rates. Moving forward, we will pair these results with soil microbial community data to understand how fire-induced changes in microbial community composition may influence respiration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification of Fatigue Behavior of Rough AM Surfaces and Microstructures to Enable Hydrogen Gas Turbine Combustion

Modification of fossil-fueled industrial gas turbines to accept no/low carbon fuels (Hydrogen, H2/natural gas blends) is a significant undertaking. Successful deployment of this technology sits at the intersection of three design criteria (1) new functional fuel injectors that can burn these fuels, (2) manufacturability to meet cost and time-to-market targets, and (3) durability in the harsh environment of an operating turbine. Additive manufacturing (AM) provides accelerated product development. However, uncertainty remains around the durability of parts with rough AM surfaces. A fully experimental approach towards quantifying fatigue performance of rough AM microstructures is costly and laborious. Instead, Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar) proposes the use of a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) model to quantify the factors that drive AM surface fatigue behavior. Solar will use the CPFE results, along with targeted experimental data, to train a computationally efficient surrogate model that can be incorporated into existing turbine part lifing methods.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Oxidation and pyrolysis of methyl propyl ether

The ignition, oxidation, and pyrolysis chemistry of methyl propyl ether (MPE) was probed experimentally at several different conditions, and a comprehensive chemical kinetic model was constructed to help understand the observations, with many of the key parameters computed using quantum chemistry and transition state theory. Experiments were carried out in a shock tube measuring time variation of CO concentrations, in a flow tube measuring product concentrations, and in a rapid compression machine (RCM) measuring ignition delay times. The detailed reaction mechanism was constructed using the Reaction Mechanism Generator software. Sensitivity and flux analyses were used to identify key rate and thermochemical parameters, which were then computed using quantum chemistry to improve the mechanism. Validation of the final model against the 1-20 bar 600-1500 K experimental data is presented with a discussion of the kinetics. The model is in excellent agreement with most of the shock tube and RCM data. Strong non-monotonic variation in conversion and product distribution is observed in the flow-tube experiments as the temperature is increased, and unusually strong pressure dependence and significant heat release during the compression stroke is observed in the RCM experiments. These observations are largely explained by a close competition between radical decomposition and addition to O2 at different sites in MPE; this causes small shifts in conditions to lead to big shifts in the dominant reaction pathways. The validated mechanism was used to study the chemistry occurring during ignition in a diesel engine, simulated using Ignition Quality Test (IQT) conditions. At the IQT conditions, where the MPE concentration is higher, bimolecular reactions of peroxy radicals are much more important than in the RCM.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Coal-Ash Characterization using Geophysical Methods & Machine Learning

Coal combustion products (CCP) are challenging to delineate in heterogeneous field settings. Conventional methods (test pits, coring, and laboratory analyses) are labor-intensive, slow, invasive, and provide sparse spatial coverage. This study evaluates whether rapid non-invasive geophysical screening methods—induced polarization (IP), magnetic susceptibility, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) —combined with surface colorimetry (RGB_24), can discriminate CCP-soil mixtures and provide reliable estimates of CCP content. Laboratory measurements were collected on five CCP-soil mixtures (series) and modeled using (i) a linear baseline, (ii) a calibrated non-linear (power-mean) model, and (iii) a machine-learning (ML) Random Forest approach, with validation via leave-one-series-out and site-specific tests. Across the five series, individual signals—particularly IP and magnetic susceptibility—were strongly predictive of ash content but were consistently outperformed by combined models. The pooled calibrated non-linear and ML models captured the observed non-linearity and achieved high accuracy and precision, improving on linear fits. Colorimetry showed the weakest direct relationship with ash content for the tested samples but improved performance when included in multi-signal models. At pre-selected 3.5% decision threshold, calibrated and ML approaches yielded near-perfect classification (Matthews correlation coefficient ˜ 1), suggesting strong practical operability for field screening. Additionally, field-analog tests highlighted the role of endmembers—accuracy declined without access to end-member measurements but was largely recovered by collecting a minimal labeled pair for local recalibration. With end members, accuracy remained high. Globally trained models performed well on three operational unknowns; however, series-specific refits provided the most accurate predictions. Overall, these results highlight the potential of combining rapid geophysics and minimal local calibration for improved coal-ash delineation.

Peshtani, Klaudio↗