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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Fast Responses on Pre-Industrial Climate from Present-Day Aerosols in A CMIP6 Multi-Model Study

In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014. In response to the pattern of all aerosols effective radiative forcing (ERF), the fast temperature responses are characterized by cooling over the continental areas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with the largest cooling over East Asia and India, sulfate being the dominant aerosol surface temperature driver for present-day emissions. In the Arctic there is a warming signal for winter in the ensemble mean of fast temperature responses, but the model-to-model variability is large, and it is presumably linked to aerosol-induced circulation changes. The largest fast precipitation responses are seen in the tropical belt regions, generally characterized by a reduction over continental regions and presumably a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. This is a characteristic and robust feature among most models in this study, associated with weakening of the monsoon systems around the globe (Asia, Africa and America) in response to hemispherically asymmetric cooling from a Northern Hemisphere aerosol perturbation, forcing possibly the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical precipitation to shift away from the cooled hemisphere despite that aerosols' effects on temperature and precipitation are only partly realized in these simulations as the sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. An interesting feature in aerosol-induced circulation changes is a characteristic dipole pattern with intensification of the Icelandic Low and an anticyclonic anomaly over southeastern Europe, inducing warm air advection towards the northern polar latitudes in winter.

Pre-industrial climate↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geophysical and Environmental Monitoring Data, Lower Watershed, Teller Road Mile Marker 27, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2017-2019

This data set contains geophysical and environmental monitoring data acquired between September 2017 and 2019 at the lower Teller watershed, Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Geophysical data comprises processed resistivity data, acquired daily between Spring and Fall of 2018 and 2019, and a baseline measurement of Fall 2017. The environmental monitoring data comprises depth resolved, distributed soil moisture and soil temperature data. These measurements were obtained used Decagon 5TE sensors placed at 0.1 m, 0.2 m , 0.3 m, and 0.4 m depth. In addition, temperature data at 0.5 m, 1.0 m, and 1.5 m were acquired using Hobo temperature sensors. Data were collected to improve our understanding of the hydrological response of discontinuous permafrost systems, in particular focusing on multi-annual dynamics and short term disturbances, such as snowmelt or precipitation events. The electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) monitoring data are included as processed resistivity models, with model cells x dimension equal to the distance along the profile, and model z dimension being elevation. The start and end point of the transect are (UTM Zone 3N): E 454881.66 m, N 7178949.45 m, and E 454772.60, N 7178885.81. Locations of the soil moisture and temperature sensors are provided in the data package. This dataset is discussed in detail in the Uhlemann, S. et al 2021 paper listed in the references. This dataset includes one *.pdf user guide and 315 *.csv data files included within four zipped files.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Canonical Repsonse of Precipitation Characteristics to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

In this study, we find from analyses of projections of 14 CMIP5 models a robust, canonical global response in rainfall characteristics to a warming climate. Under a scenario of 1% increase per year of CO2 emission, the model ensemble projects globally more heavy precipitation (+7+/-2.4%/K1), less moderate precipitation (-2.5+/-0.6%/K), more light precipitation (+1.8+/-1.3%/K1), and increased length of dry (no-rain) periods (+4.7+/-2.1%/K). Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy precipitation over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, especially the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Asian monsoon regions, and more dry periods over the land areas of the subtropics and the tropical marginal convective zones. Our results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce a global adjustment in circulation and moisture availability manifested in basic changes in global precipitation characteristics, including increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

CMIP5↗
NASA NTRS2012

Optical Characterisation of Suspended Particles in the Mackenzie River Plume (Canadian Arctic Ocean) and Implications for Ocean Colour Remote Sensing

Climate change significantly impacts Arctic shelf regions in terms of air temperature, ultraviolet radiation, melting of sea ice, precipitation, thawing of permafrost and coastal erosion. Direct consequences have been observed on the increasing Arctic river flow and a large amount of organic carbon sequestered in soils at high latitudes since the last glacial maximum can be expected to be delivered to the Arctic Ocean during the coming decade. Monitoring the fluxes and fate of this terrigenous organic carbon is problematic in such sparsely populated regions unless remote sensing techniques can be developed and proved to be operational. The main objective of this study is to develop an ocean colour algorithm to operationally monitor dynamics of suspended particulate matter (SPM) on the Mackenzie River continental shelf (Canadian Arctic Ocean) using satellite imagery. The water optical properties are documented across the study area and related to concentrations of SPM and particulate organic carbon (POC). Robust SPM and POC : SPM proxies are identified, such as the light backscattering and attenuation coefficients, and relationships are established between these optical and biogeochemical parameters. Following a semi-analytical approach, a regional SPM quantification relationship is obtained for the inversion of the water reflectance signal into SPM concentration. This relationship is reproduced based on independent field optical measurements. It is successfully applied to a selection of MODIS satellite data which allow estimating fluxes at the river mouth and monitoring the extension and dynamics of the Mackenzie River surface plume in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Good agreement is obtained with field observations representative of the whole water column in the river delta zone where terrigenous SPM is mainly constrained (out of short periods of maximum river outflow). Most of the seaward export of SPM is observed to occur within the west side of the river mouth. Future work will require the validation of the developed SPM regional algorithm based on match-ups with field measurements, then the routine application to ocean colour satellite data in order to better estimate the fluxes and fate of SPM and POC delivered by the Mackenzie River to the Arctic Ocean.

Mackenzie River plume↗
DOE OSTI2022

SMART Subsea Cables for Observing the Earth and Ocean, Mitigating Environmental Hazards, and Supporting the Blue Economy

The Joint Task Force, Science Monitoring And Reliable Telecommunications (JTF SMART) Subsea Cables, is working to integrate environmental sensors for ocean bottom temperature, pressure, and seismic acceleration into submarine telecommunications cables. The purpose of SMART Cables is to support climate and ocean observation, sea level monitoring, observations of Earth structure, and tsunami and earthquake early warning and disaster risk reduction, including hazard quantification. Recent advances include regional SMART pilot systems that are the first steps to trans-ocean and global implementation. Examples of pilots include: InSEA wet demonstration project off Sicily at the European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water column Observatory Western Ionian Facility; New Caledonia and Vanuatu; French Polynesia Natitua South system connecting Tahiti to Tubaui to the south; Indonesia starting with short pilot systems working toward systems for the Sumatra-Java megathrust zone; and the CAM-2 ring system connecting Lisbon, Azores, and Madeira. This paper describes observing system simulations for these and other regions. Funding reflects a blend of government, development bank, philanthropic foundation, and commercial contributions. In addition to notable scientific and societal benefits, the telecommunications enterprise’s mission of global connectivity will benefit directly, as environmental awareness improves both the integrity of individual cable systems as well as the resilience of the overall global communications network. SMART cables support the outcomes of a predicted, safe, and transparent ocean as envisioned by the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and the Blue Economy. As a continuation of the OceanObs’19 conference and community white paper (Howe et al., 2019, 10.3389/fmars.2019.00424), an overview of the SMART programme and a description of the status of ongoing projects are given.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission: Continuing a Record of Exploration from Mars Orbit

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) has been on station in its low altitude, sun-synchronous, primary science orbit since September 2006 performing both scientific and Mars programmatic support functions. The spacecraft is a very capable remote sensing science platform carrying six science payloads supporting seven investigations and a UHF telecommunications radio (Electra) for surface relay. Developed to support a mix of nadir mapping and targeted, highresolution surface observations, the spacecraft’s powerful telecommunications and command & data handling (C&DH) subsystems communicate an average of 16 hours a day with the Deep Space Network (DSN). To date, more than 300 TB of scientific data has been returned to Earth. All of the original science payloads are active with standard and new observing modes contributing to the advancement of Mars science through peer-reviewed paper publications and the timely dissemination of their data to the science community as a whole. Results from the science teams have revealed an amazing diversity of ancient aqueous environments and ongoing surface change is evident through gully formation, avalanches, and cratering. Extending the MRO-MGS climate record to a decade of Mars years is contributing to a better understanding of current atmospheric and polar processes. In addition to its fundamental scientific objectives, MRO is a critical element of NASA’s Mars Exploration Program (MEP) providing needed infrastructure support for landed and future missions. Using its Electra telecommunications payload, MRO provides landers and rovers critical event coverage during their entry, descent, and landing (EDL) phases and UHF relay support once they are on the Martian surface. MRO’s high-resolution imagers are used to scout potential landing sites and certify safe zones for landing. As MRO begins its Fourth Extended Mission, the spacecraft remains fully capable of carrying out an ambitious science observing plan and the programmatic tasks assigned to it. In addition to highlighting recent discoveries of the mission, this paper describes recent challenges the spacecraft engineers have faced in flight and the plans for extending spacecraft life well into the 2020’s.

Tamppari, Leslie K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Zeolite Formation and Weathering Processes in Dry Valleys of Antartica: Martian Analogs

Terrestrial weathering processes in cold-desert climates such as the Dry Valleys of Antarctica may provide an excellent analog to chemical weathering and diagenesis of soils on Mars. Detailed studies of soil development and the chemical and mineralogical alterations occurring within soil columns in Wright Valley, Antarctica show incredible complexity in the upper meter of soil. Previous workers noted the ice-free Dry Valleys are the best terrestrial approximations to contemporary Mars. Images returned from the Pathfinder and Spirit landers show similarities to surfaces observed within the Dry Valleys. Similarities to Mars that exist in these valleys are: mean temperatures always below freezing (-20 C), no rainfall, sparse snowfall-rapidly removed by sublimation, desiccating winds, diurnal freeze-thaw cycles (even during daylight hours), low humidity, oxidative environment, relatively high solar radiation and low magnetic fields . The Dry Valley soils contain irregular distributions and low abundances of soil microorganisms that are somewhat unusual on Earth. Physical processes-such as sand abrasion-are dominant mechanisms of rock weathering in Antarctica. However, chemical weathering is also an important process even in such extreme climates. For example, ionic migration occurs even in frozen soils along liquid films on individual soil particles. It has also been shown that water with liquid-like properties is present in soils at temperatures on the order of approx.-80 C and it has been observed that the percentage of oxidized iron increases with increasing soil age and enrichments in oxidized iron occurs toward the surface. The presence of evaporates is evident and appear similar to "evaporite sites" within the Pathfinder and Spirit sites. Evaporites indicate ionic migration and chemical activity even in the permanently frozen zone. The presence of evaporates indicates that chemical weathering of rocks and possibly soils has been active. Authogenic zeolites have been identified within the soil columns because they are fragile; i.e. they are euhedral, unabraded, and unfractured, strongly suggesting in situ formation. Their presence in Antarctic samples is another indication that diagenic processes are active in cold-desert environments. The presence of zeolites, and other clays along with halites, sulfates, carbonates, and hydrates are to be expected within the soil columns on Mars at the Gusev and Isidis Planitia regions. The presence of such water-bearing minerals beneath the surface supplies one of the requirements to support biological activity on Mars.

Gibson, E. K., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Conservative solute transport processes and associated transient storage mechanisms: Comparing streams with contrasting channel morphologies, land use and land cover

Abstract Land use within a watershed impacts stream channel morphology and hydrology and, therefore, in‐stream solute transport processes and associated transient storage mechanisms. This study evaluated transport processes in two contrasting stream sites where channel morphology was influenced by the surrounding land use, land cover, climate and geologic controls: Como Creek, CO, a relatively undisturbed, high gradient, forested stream with a gravel bed and complex channel morphology, and Clear Creek, IA, an incised, low‐gradient stream with low‐permeability substrate draining an agricultural landscape. We performed conservative stream tracer injections at these sites to address the following questions: (1) How does solute transport vary between streams with differing morphologies? and (2) How does solute transport at each stream site change as a function of discharge? We analysed in‐stream tracer time series data and compared results quantifying solute attenuation in surface and subsurface transient storage zones. Significant trends were observed in these metrics with varying discharge conditions at the forested site but not at the agricultural site. There was a broad range of transport mechanisms and evidence of substantial exchange with both surface and hyporheic transient storage in the relatively undisturbed, forested stream. Changing discharge conditions activated or deactivated different solute transport mechanisms in the forested site and greatly impacted advective travel time. Conversely in the simplified agricultural stream, there was a narrow range of solute transport behaviour across flows and predominantly surface transient storage at all measured discharge conditions. These results demonstrate how channel simplification inhibits available solute transport mechanisms across varying discharge conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

"Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring. WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed WP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce a realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

"Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring, WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed NP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce e realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata))were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (1825),convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width(TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies)have a high impact on current TRW (r 0.600.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest steppe)and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities and Challenges for Hydrotreating of Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis Oil to Fuels

Catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) provides a versatile platform for producing fuels to combat climate change and meet decarbonizing targets. In this contribution, we will discuss the hydroprocessing of CFP oils to a variety of fuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), diesel, and marine fuel. Both standalone and co-hydroprocessing with petroleum streams will be covered. Hydrotreating CFP oil at temperatures around 400 Degrees Celsius can produce a highly deoxygenated product with oxygen contents below the detection limit. However, the quality of fuel fractions produced has been a problem, manifesting as low octane numbers for the gasoline-range fraction and low cetane numbers for the diesel-range fraction. Incorporating an initial transition zone for hydrogenation during hydrotreating was shown to dramatically increase the diesel fraction cetane number from 24 to 45. A similar approach enabled the production of a cycloalkane-rich SAF fraction meeting key ASTM 4054 guidelines with respect to density, viscosity, heating value, volatility, freeze and flash point. Over 400 hours of hydrotreating for SAF was demonstrated with no signs of catalyst bed fouling, measured by pressure drop over the catalyst bed. Compared to other fuels, marine fuel is unique in that it does not require complete deoxygenation. We investigated the minimum hydrotreating requirements to produce fuel compatible with very low sulfur fuel oil, and the results suggested 30% reduction in hydrotreating costs for this approach. Co-hydroprocessing offers an opportunity to take advantage of refinery infrastructure and economies of scale although the operation is less flexible with respect to operating conditions. Co-hydroprocessing CFP oil with petroleum streams gave efficient deoxygenation at milder conditions (e.g. at temperatures of 320 Degrees Celsius) than required for standalone hydrotreating. Over 90% incorporation of biogenic carbon in the CFP oil was confirmed by carbon-14 analysis. Hydrotreating of CFP oil, whether by standalone or co-processing, can produce a variety of fuel cuts, whose quality can be tailored by changing process conditions. Challenges remain, including long-term catalyst performance and determining CFP oil quality requirements.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2002

Model Interpretation of Climate Signals: Application to the Asian Monsoon Climate

This is an invited review paper intended to be published as a Chapter in a book entitled "The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes and Teleconnections" Cambridge University Press. The author begins with an introduction followed by a primer of climate models, including a description of various modeling strategies and methodologies used for climate diagnostics and predictability studies. Results from the CLIVAR Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (MMIP) were used to illustrate the application of the strategies to modeling the Asian monsoon. It is shown that state-of-the art atmospheric GCMs have reasonable capability in simulating the seasonal mean large scale monsoon circulation, and response to El Nino. However, most models fail to capture the climatological as well as interannual anomalies of regional scale features of the Asian monsoon. These include in general over-estimating the intensity and/or misplacing the locations of the monsoon convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the zones of heavy rainfall near steep topography of the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, and Indo-China and the Philippines. The intensity of convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean is generally weaker in models compared to observations. Most important, an endemic problem in all models is the weakness and the lack of definition of the Mei-yu rainbelt of the East Asia, in particular the part of the Mei-yu rainbelt over the East China Sea and southern Japan are under-represented. All models seem to possess certain amount of intraseasonal variability, but the monsoon transitions, such as the onset and breaks are less defined compared with the observed. Evidences are provided that a better simulation of the annual cycle and intraseasonal variability is a pre-requisite for better simulation and better prediction of interannual anomalies.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space‐Based Observations for Understanding Changes in the Arctic‐Boreal Zone

A recent, interdisciplinary survey of more than 40 international remote sensing experts reviewed the strengths and limitations of current space-based observational capabilities of the Arctic Boreal Zone (ABZ) and made recommendations for improving upon these current capabilities (Duncan et al., 2019). General recommendations focused on the complementarity of sub-orbital and satellite observations, the need for measurement continuity, and the importance of stakeholder engagement. The development of a comprehensive and robust sub-orbital portion of an ABZ observing network can act to fill some temporal gaps in satellite coverage, provide detail unobtainable from space, and is necessary for validation and interpretation of satellite data. A priority across all types of observations is the continuation, enhancement, and/or creation of long-term, multi-satellite, climate-quality, and self-consistent data records of ABZ components, such as surface temperature, energy fluxes, or sea ice extent and volume, for improved determination of trends. Long-term passive satellite observations currently represent the only feasible option for monitoring change of the ABZ at broad spatial scales required to address pressing science challenges. Active sensors are particularly attractive for the ABZ as they do not depend on reflected sunlight and so join passive microwave sensors in having a significant advantage over passive visible and infrared sensors in the low-light conditions that are typical of the ABZ for several months of the year. Application of consistent retrieval algorithms to multiple data sets, as well as careful characterization of satellite instruments and their temporal evolution, helps to ensure data quality and consistency. Among the needs ranked as “Most Important” are those associated with gaining a process-based understanding of the ABZ carbon cycle and hydrologic cycle (which includes sea level rise) as they have the potential to affect a large portion of Earth’s population.

Remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2001

Some Impacts of Solar Irradiance Variation on Terrestrial Climate

As chairman of the Special Session addressing the above topic, a brief overview of the problem will be offered, after which 20-minute talks will be given on the determination of solar irradiance variations from space observations (Dr. Judit Pap) and from groundbased measurements of solar magnetic fields (Dr. Harrison Jones). The chairman will then introduce four panel members representing different areas of expertise bearing on the topic. Each panel member will offer a brief 5-minute summary of his views. Panel members are: Chick Keller, Los Alamos National Laboratory; Drew Shindell, Goddard Institute for Space Science, Columbia University; Michael Schlesinger, University of Illinois; Sabatino Sofia, Yale University. General Circulation Models of the terrestrial atmosphere, the possible impact on this atmosphere of large percentage changes in the solar EUV over a solar cycle, and the role of strong magnetic field in the solar convection zone on irradiance variation will all be considered in brief summaries. The chairman will conclude the session by facilitating a discussion between the audience, the main speakers, and the panel members.

Jordan, Stuart D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A multiyear tropical Pacific cooling response to recent Australian wildfires in CESM2

The climate response to biomass burning emissions from the 2019–2020 Australian wildfire season is estimated from two 30-member ensembles using CESM2: one of which incorporates observed wildfire emissions and one that does not. In response to the fires, an increase in biomass aerosol burdens across the southern hemisphere is simulated through late 2019 and early 2020, accompanied by an enhancement of cloud albedo, particularly in the southeastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. In turn, the surface cools, the boundary layer dries, and the moist static energy of the low-level flow into the equatorial Pacific is reduced. In response, the intertropical convergence zone migrates northward and sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region cools, with coupled feedbacks amplifying the cooling. A subsequent multiyear ensemble mean cooling of the tropical Pacific is simulated through the end of 2021, suggesting an important contribution to the 2020–2022 strong La Niña events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata)) were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (18 deg to 25 deg), convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width (TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies) have a high impact on current TRW (r = 0.60 to 0.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest- steppe) and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

conifer mortality↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate Warming Alters Nutrient Storage in Seasonally Dry Forests: Insights From a 2,300 m Elevation Gradient

Understanding potential response of forest carbon (C) and nutrient storage to warming is important for climate mitigation policies. Unfortunately, those responses are difficult to predict in seasonally dry forests, in part, because ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to both changes in temperature and precipitation. We investigated how warming might alter stocks of C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in vegetation and the entire regolith (soil + weathered bedrock or “saprock”) using a space-for-time substitution along a bioclimatic gradient in the Sierra Nevada, California. The pine-oak and mixed-conifer forests between 1,160–2,015 m elevation have more optimal climates (not too dry or hot) for ecosystem productivity, soil weathering, and cycling of essential elements than the oak savannah (405 m) and subalpine forest (2,700 m). We found decreases in overstory vegetation nutrient stocks with decreasing elevation because of enhanced water limitation and greater occurrence of disturbances. Stocks of C, N, and P in the entire regolith peaked at the pine-oak and mixed-conifer forests across the bioclimatic gradient, driven by thicker regolith profiles and greater nutrient input rates. These observations suggest long-term warming will decrease ecosystem nutrient storage at the warmer, transitional pine-oak zone, but will increase nutrient storage at the colder, subalpine zone. Assuming steady-state conditions, we found the mean residence time of ecosystem C decreased with projected rising air temperatures and increased following a major drought event across the bioclimatic gradient. Our study emphasizes potentially elevation-dependent changes in nutrient storage and C persistence with warming in seasonally dry forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗