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At least 919 records · Page 51
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Adaptive Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully Bayesian formulations remain rare—especially with implementations in R. Motivated by the success of adaptive Bayesian machine learning models such as BART, BASS and BPPR, we develop a new fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with an efficient and accessible R implementation: khaos. Our approach includes a novel proposal distribution that enables data-driven interaction selection and supports a modified g-prior tailored to PCE structure. Through simulation studies and real-world UQ applications, we demonstrate that the Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for surrogate modeling, global sensitivity analysis and ordinal regression tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Towards Adaptive Mesh Refinement for the Spectral Element Solver Nek5000

When performing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of complex flows, the a priori knowledge of the flow physics and the location of the dominant flow features are usually unknown. For this reason, the development of adaptive remeshing techniques is crucial for large-scale computational problems. Some work has been made recently to provide Nek5000 with adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) capabilities in order to facilitate the generation of the grid and push forward the limit in terms of problem size and complexity [10]. Nek5000 is an open-source, highly scalable and portable code based on the spectral element method (SEM) [4], which offers minimal dissipation and dispersion, high accuracy and exponential convergence. It is aimed at solving direct and large-eddy simulations of turbulent incompressible or low Mach-number flows with heat transfer and species transport. The approach chosen for adapting the mesh is the h-refinement method, where elements are split locally, which requires the relaxation of the conforming grid constraint currently imposed by Nek5000. Other challenges include the implementation of an efficient management of the grid as refinement is applied, the development of tools to localize the critical flow regions via error estimators and the extension of the current preconditioning strategy to non-conforming grids. In this paper, we present a new procedure to setup an algebraic multigrid solver used as part of the preconditioner for the pressure equation.

Offermans, N.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Porting Adaptive Ensemble Molecular Dynamics Workflows to the Summit Supercomputer

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations must take very small (femtosecond) integration steps in simulation-time to avoid numerical errors. Efficient use of parallel programming models and accelerators in state-of-the art MD programs now is pushing Moore’s limit for time-per-MD step. As a result, directly simulating timescales beyond milliseconds will not be attainable directly, even at exascale. However, concepts from statistical physics can be used to combine many parallel simulations to provide information about longer timescales and to adequately sample the simulation space, while preserving details about the dynamics of the system. Implementing such an approach requires a workflow program that allows adaptable steering of task assignments based on extensive statistical analysis of intermediate results. Here we report the implementation of such an adaptable workflow program to drive simulations on the Summit IBM Power System AC922, a pre-exascale supercomputer at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). We compare to experiences on Titan, Summit’s predecessor, report the performance of the workflow and its components, and describe the porting process. We find that using a workflow program managed by a Mongo database can provide the fault tolerance, scalable performance, task dispatch rate, and reconfigurability required for robust and portable implementation of ensemble simulations such as are used in enhanced-sampling molecular dynamics. This type of workflow generator can also be used to provide adaptive steering of ensemble simulations for other applications in addition to MD.

Ossyra, John R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust Implicit Adaptive Low Rank Time-Stepping Methods for Matrix Differential Equations

In this work, we develop implicit rank-adaptive schemes for time-dependent matrix differential equations. The dynamic low rank approximation (DLRA) is a well-known technique to capture the dynamic low rank structure based on Dirac–Frenkel time-dependent variational principle. In recent years, it has attracted a lot of attention due to its wide applicability. Our schemes are inspired by the three-step procedure used in the rank adaptive version of the unconventional robust integrator (the so called BUG integrator) (Ceruti et al. in BIT Numer Math 62(4):1149–1174, 2022) for DLRA. First, a prediction (basis update) step is made computing the approximate column and row spaces at the next time level. Second, a Galerkin evolution step is invoked using an implicit solves for the small core matrix. Finally, a truncation is made according to a prescribed error threshold. Since the DLRA is evolving the differential equation projected on to the tangent space of the low rank manifold, the error estimate of the BUG integrator contains the tangent projection (modeling) error which cannot be easily controlled by mesh refinement. This can cause convergence issue for equations with cross terms. To address this issue, we propose a simple modification, consisting of merging the row and column spaces from the explicit step truncation method together with the BUG spaces in the prediction step. In addition, we propose an adaptive strategy where the BUG spaces are only computed if the residual for the solution obtained from the prediction space by explicit step truncation method, is too large. Here, we prove stability and estimate the local truncation error of the schemes under assumptions. We benchmark the schemes in several tests, such as anisotropic diffusion, solid body rotation and the combination of the two, to show robust convergence properties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Data Assimilation in the ADAPT Photospheric Flux Transport Model

Global maps of the solar photospheric magnetic flux are fundamental drivers for simulations of the corona and solar wind and therefore are important predictors of geoeffective events. However, observations of the solar photosphere are only made intermittently over approximately half of the solar surface. The Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model uses localized ensemble Kalman filtering techniques to adjust a set of photospheric simulations to agree with the available observations. At the same time, this information is propagated to areas of the simulation that have not been observed. ADAPT implements a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) to accomplish data assimilation, allowing the covariance structure of the flux-transport model to influence assimilation of photosphere observations while eliminating spurious correlations between ensemble members arising from a limited ensemble size. We give a detailed account of the implementation of the LETKF into ADAPT. Advantages of the LETKF scheme over previously implemented assimilation methods are highlighted.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Insight into adaptive remodeling of the rotor ring complex of the bacterial flagellar motor

Highlights: • Adaptive remodeling of the flagellar motor ring is responsible for motor switching. • Helix{sub MC} connecting FliG{sub M} and FliG{sub C} is responsible for the switching. • A CW-locked deletion of FliG suppresses the oligomerization of FliG in solution. • The CW-locked deletion reduces the binding affinity of FliG for FliM. • We provide an insight into structural remodeling of the flagellar motor. The bacterial flagellar motor rotates in both counterclockwise (CCW) and clockwise (CW) directions. FliG, FliM and FliN form the C ring on the cytoplasmic face of the MS ring made of a transmembrane protein, FliF. The C ring acts not only as a rotor but also as a switch of the direction of motor rotation. FliG consists of three domains: FliG{sub N}, FliG{sub M} and FliG{sub C}. FliG{sub N} directly binds to FliF. Intermolecular interactions between FliG{sub M} and FliG{sub C} drive FliG ring formation. FliG{sub M} is responsible for the interaction with FliM. FliG{sub C} is involved in the interaction with the stator protein MotA. Adaptive remodeling of the C ring occurs when the motor switches between the CCW and CW states. However, it remained unknown how. Here, we report the effects of a CW-locked deletion mutation (ΔPEV) in FliG of Thermotaoga maritia (Tm-FliG) on FliG–FliG and FliG–FliM interactions. The PEV deletion stabilized the intramolecular interaction between FliG{sub M} and FliG{sub C}, thereby suppressing the oligomerization of Tm-FliG{sub MC} in solution. This deletion also induced a conformational change of Helix{sub MC} connecting FliG{sub M} and FliG{sub C} to reduce the binding affinity of Tm-FliG{sub MC} for FliM. We will discuss adaptive remodeling of the C ring responsible for flagellar motor switching.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Adaptive simulations enable computational design of electron beam processing of nanomaterials with supersonic micro-jet precursor

Focused Electron Beam Induced Processing (FEBIP) is a powerful tool for the “direct-write” of nanomaterials with the possibility of atomistic control on suspended 2D material substrates. FEBIP capabilities have been significantly expanded by using a localized jet-based delivery of precursors, and especially when a thermally energized supersonic micro-jet enhances the delivery of mass flux along with controlling the far-from-equilibrium thermodynamic state of adsorbed adatoms. The possibilities of growing nanomaterials with “dialed-in” composition with ultra-high growth rates and aspect ratios up to 100:1 have been demonstrated using the supersonic micro-jet-FEBIP. Bringing this scientific discovery to the level of maturity required for practical applications in additive nanomanufacturing requires simulation tools that are capable of capturing the complex flow physics of micro-jet-substrate interactions that bridge a wide range of flow regimes from the high-density gas micro-jet expanding into the vacuum environment of FEBIP. To address this significant computational challenge, a new approach has been developed and described in this work for a multiscale adaptive DSMC (Direct Simulation Monte Carlo) algorithm to predict the micro-jet gas dynamics in an FEBIP environment, spanning the full range of flow regimes from low Knudsen (Kn) number O(0.01) continuum flow to high Kn of O(10) for the molecular flow within a unified computational framework. Here, the fundamental principles of the adaptive DSMC algorithm are described, its viability as a DSMC technique is demonstrated, and computational improvements for the benchmark cases are discussed in the context of advancing 3D nanofabrication with FEBIP. Ultimately, combining the first principle simulations via adaptive DSMC with the complementary experimental data will enable the creation of the powerful CAD tools for in silico design and optimal operation of micro-jet-FEBIP.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Accounting for adaptation and intensity in projecting heat wave-related mortality

Highlights: • We propose novel models for intensity of and adaptation to heat waves in projections of heat wave- mortality. • The modeling used a large national dataset and the projections used a rich set of climate models and scenarios. • Future heat wave-related mortality would be substantially overestimated, if adaptation were ignored. • The time trend of future heat wave-related mortality will vary substantially across climate regions. How adaptation and intensity of heat waves affect heat wave-related mortality is unclear, making health projections difficult.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Limiter-aware adaptive excitation control for hydropower generators with legacy voltage regulation systems

Hydropower units often rely on legacy excitation systems with fixed automatic voltage regulator (AVR) settings, but parameter drift, changing operating conditions, and evolving grid-service demands can degrade terminal-voltage regulation over time. This problem should be addressed because poor voltage regulation affects reactive-power support, system stability, and reliable plant operation, and replacing installed AVR and limiter logic is costly and disruptive in practice. To address this issue, this paper proposes a retrofit-friendly enhancement for hydropower generator excitation systems that combines adaptive tuning of the AVR middle lead–lag branch with a small proportional-integral correction for removing steady bias and slow drift. The adaptive laws are normalized, projection-bounded, and equipped with leakage, while adaptation is enabled only in the middle branch. Thus, the intent of the underexcitation and overexcitation limiters, as well as legacy current and rate limits, remains unchanged. Stability is analyzed under incremental performance assumptions, yielding boundedness and asymptotic tracking in the absence of saturation. The method is evaluated using real operational data from a utility-scale hydropower unit at Rocky Reach Dam, Unit C-8. Compared with the fixed AVR baseline, the proposed method reduces terminal-voltage mean squared error by about 70%, removes long periods of steady-state bias, and improves transient tracking while coexisting with limiter actions. These results show that substantial voltage-control improvement can be achieved on existing hydropower units with minimal integration effort and without replacing the installed AVR structure.

ESST5B model↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dosimetric Evaluation of Incorporating Patient Geometric Variations Into Adaptive Plan Optimization Through Probabilistic Treatment Planning in Head and Neck Cancers

Four-dimensional (4D) adaptive radiation therapy (ART) treatment planning is an alternative to the conventional margin-based treatment planning approach. In 4D ART, interfraction patient geometric variations, gathered from computed tomography (CT) or cone beam CT (CBCT) images acquired during the patient treatment course, are directly incorporated into the adaptive plan optimization using a probabilistic treatment planning method. The goal of the present planning study was to evaluate the dosimetric differences between 4D ART and conventional margin-based adaptive planning strategies for head and neck cancers. In addition, we examined whether the dose differences achieved with 4D ART would translate into clinically relevant toxicity reductions using the existing normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Adaptive surrogate modeling by ANOVA and sparse polynomial dimensional decomposition for global sensitivity analysis in fluid simulation

The Polynomial Dimensional Decomposition (PDD) is employed in this work for the global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (UQ) of stochastic systems subject to a moderate to large number of input random variables. Due to the intimate connection between the PDD and the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approaches, PDD is able to provide a simpler and more direct evaluation of the Sobol' sensitivity indices, when compared to the Polynomial Chaos expansion (PC). Unfortunately, the number of PDD terms grows exponentially with respect to the size of the input random vector, which makes the computational cost of standard methods unaffordable for real engineering applications. In order to address the problem of the curse of dimensionality, this work proposes essentially variance-based adaptive strategies aiming to build a cheap meta-model (i.e. surrogate model) by employing the sparse PDD approach with its coefficients computed by regression. Three levels of adaptivity are carried out in this paper: 1) the truncated dimensionality for ANOVA component functions, 2) the active dimension technique especially for second- and higher-order parameter interactions, and 3) the stepwise regression approach designed to retain only the most influential polynomials in the PDD expansion. During this adaptive procedure featuring stepwise regressions, the surrogate model representation keeps containing few terms, so that the cost to resolve repeatedly the linear systems of the least-squares regression problem is negligible. The size of the finally obtained sparse PDD representation is much smaller than the one of the full expansion, since only significant terms are eventually retained. Consequently, a much smaller number of calls to the deterministic model is required to compute the final PDD coefficients.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

A block-spectral adaptive H-/$p$-refinement strategy for shock-dominated problems

An adaptive H-/p-refinement strategy using a novel sensor is devised and tested in a block-spectral compressible Euler code equipped with adaptive-mesh refinement (AMR) and high-order flux-reconstruction numerics. At each Gauss quadrature point (or solution point) within each spectral block (or mesh element) the discrete velocity jump ΔU = ∂U/∂y 1 Δy 1 + ∂V/∂y 2 Δy 2 + ∂W/∂y 3 Δy 3 is calculated and normalized by the local speed of sound, a. Here, the grid spacing, Δx i , is calculated in each direction as the distance between auxiliary Gauss-Lobatto points, staggered relative to the solution points. The polynomial order is increased from p = 0 to p = p max in regions of weak compression, (ΔU/a) crit < ΔU/a < 0 and kept at p = p max in regions of flow expansion ΔU/a ≥ 0, while staying at the H = 0 base mesh level. Regions experiencing strong compressions, i.e. ΔU/a < (ΔU/a) crit , are H-refined up to H = H max where H max is applied at the location of maximum compression, ΔU/a = min(ΔU/a) in the domain, while keeping p = 0 to guarantee robustness and monotonicity of the solution in the H refined region. The critical value of (ΔU/a) crit = -0.06 is found to effectively separate smooth and non-smooth solution regions, supported by a 1D detonation initiation test case in ideal gas and a shock-to-detonation transition in high explosives. Using this value, the Sod shock tube, Shu-Osher problem, double Mach reflection and a 2D detonation in a high-explosive are simulated with the proposed adaptive H-/p-refinement. In the Sod shock tube case, p-refinement resolves the (weak) contact discontinuity while H-refinement enhances the grid resolution in the shock exploiting the monotonicity of the p = 0 reconstruction. For the Shu-Osher problem, p-refinement captures the small-scale oscillations trailing the shock that would be otherwise attenuated, while H-refinement triggered by the ΔU-sensor appropriately tracks the shock. In the double Mach reflection problem, H-refinement confines the numerical diffusion around the reflected shock while p-refinement recaptures many physical features trailing the shock. Finally, in the 2D high-explosive detonation case, H-refinement follows the leading shock and resolves the curvature of the detonation wave, while p-refinement adds resolution to the trailing reaction zone. Finally, the proposed methodology is tested in a detonation-wave propagation test case in high-explosives with numerical predictions comparing favorably against experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Advances in Patch-Based Adaptive Mesh Refinement Scalability

Patch-based structured adaptive mesh refinement (SAMR) is widely used for high-resolution simu- lations. Combined with modern supercomputers, it could provide simulations of unprecedented size and resolution. A persistent challenge for this com- bination has been managing dynamically adaptive meshes on more and more MPI tasks. The dis- tributed mesh management scheme in SAMRAI has made some progress SAMR scalability, but early al- gorithms still had trouble scaling past the regime of 105 MPI tasks. This work provides two critical SAMR regridding algorithms, which are integrated into that scheme to ensure efficiency of the whole. The clustering algorithm is an extension of the tile- clustering approach, making it more flexible and efficient in both clustering and parallelism. The partitioner is a new algorithm designed to prevent the network congestion experienced by its prede- cessor. We evaluated performance using weak- and strong-scaling benchmarks designed to be difficult for dynamic adaptivity. Results show good scaling on up to 1.5M cores and 2M MPI tasks. Detailed timing diagnostics suggest scaling would continue well past that.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Adaptive model tuning studies for non-invasive diagnostics and feedback control of plasma wakefield acceleration at FACET-II

Beam-driven plasma wakefield acceleration (PWFA) achieves the same energy gain in a single meter, for which conventional accelerators require several kilometers, however much work is still required to match the beam quality of conventional accelerators. The PWFA processes to be studied at the FACET-II facility will utilize extremely short (down to a few fs) high energy (10 GeV), high charge (few nC) electron and eventually positron bunches. The PWFA process is extremely sensitive to the detailed longitudinal current profiles of these bunches and it would be of great benefit to have precise measurement and control of these profiles. We present an adaptive model tuning technique for FACET-II to adaptively tune online models based on real time accelerator and beam data to continuously provide a non-invasive diagnostic which predicts the longitudinal phase space (LPS) of extremely short and highly compressed electron beams, which otherwise require destructive X-band transverse deflecting cavity (XTCAV)-based measurements. Based on simulation studies, our method has the potential for: (1). The development of a non-invasive longitudinal phase space diagnostic by adaptively tuning models based on non-invasive measurements such as energy spread spectra which could be recorded at all of the bunch compressors in the facility. (2). Utilize these diagnostic to perform model-independent feedback-based to achieve desired longitudinal phase space distributions. (3). Utilize the model-independent feedback approach to maximize energy gain while minimizing emittance growth and energy gain variance of the PWFA process by tuning accelerator parameters, while monitoring what longitudinal phase space the algorithm has found, information that will be useful for further analytical and simulation studies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating adaptive and predictive power management strategies for optimizing visualization performance on supercomputers

Power is becoming an increasingly scarce resource on the next generation of supercomputers, and should be used wisely to improve overall performance. One strategy for improving power usage is hardware overprovisioning, i.e., systems with more nodes than can be run at full power simultaneously without exceeding the system-wide power limit. With this study, we compare two strategies for allocating power throughout an overprovisioned system – adaptation and prediction – in the context of visualization workloads. While adaptation has been suitable for workloads with more regular execution behaviors, it may not be as suitable on visualization workloads, since they can have variable execution behaviors. This study considers a total of 104 experiments, which vary the rendering workload, power budget, allocation strategy, and node concurrency, including tests processing data sets up to 1 billion cells and using up to 18,432 cores across 512 nodes. Overall, we find that prediction is a superior strategy for this use case, improving performance up to 27% compared to an adaptive strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Discriminating between adaptive and carcinogenic liver hypertrophy in rat studies using logistic ridge regression analysis of toxicogenomic data: The mode of action and predictive models

Chemical exposure often results in liver hypertrophy in animal tests, characterized by increased liver weight, hepatocellular hypertrophy, and/or cell proliferation. While most of these changes are considered adaptive responses, there is concern that they may be associated with carcinogenesis. In this study, we have employed a toxicogenomic approach using a logistic ridge regression model to identify genes responsible for liver hypertrophy and hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis and to develop a predictive model for assessing hypertrophy-inducing compounds. Logistic regression models have previously been used in the quantification of epidemiological risk factors. DNA microarray data from the Toxicogenomics Project-Genomics Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System were used to identify hypertrophy-related genes that are expressed differently in hypertrophy induced by carcinogens and non-carcinogens. Data were collected for 134 chemicals (72 non-hypertrophy-inducing chemicals, 27 hypertrophy-inducing non-carcinogenic chemicals, and 15 hypertrophy-inducing carcinogenic compounds). After applying logistic ridge regression analysis, 35 genes for liver hypertrophy (e.g., Acot1 and Abcc3) and 13 genes for hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis (e.g., Asns and Gpx2) were selected. The predictive models built using these genes were 94.8% and 82.7% accurate, respectively. Pathway analysis of the genes indicates that, aside from a xenobiotic metabolism-related pathway as an adaptive response for liver hypertrophy, amino acid biosynthesis and oxidative responses appear to be involved in hypertrophic hepatocarcinogenesis. Early detection and toxicogenomic characterization of liver hypertrophy using our models may be useful for predicting carcinogenesis. In addition, the identified genes provide novel insight into discrimination between adverse hypertrophy associated with carcinogenesis and adaptive hypertrophy in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Hypertrophy (H) and hypertrophic carcinogenesis (C) were studied by toxicogenomics. • Important genes for H and C were selected by logistic ridge regression analysis. • Amino acid biosynthesis and oxidative responses may be involved in C. • Predictive models for H and C provided 94.8% and 82.7% accuracy, respectively. • The identified genes could be useful for assessment of liver hypertrophy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Energy metabolic capacities of human adipose-derived mesenchymal stromal cells in vitro and their adaptations in osteogenic and adipogenic differentiation

Highlights: • Mesenchymal differentiation of adMSC causes adaptations of the energy metabolism. • Mesenchymal differentiation of adMSC comes along with changes in cell proliferation. • Osteogenic differentiation entails an increase of all metabolic pathways tested. • Adipogenic differentiation entails a decreasing capacity of carbohydrate metabolism. • Adipogenic differentiation indicates a shift towards lipid metabolism. Mesenchymal stromal/stem cells (MSC) are important in tissue homeostasis and regeneration due to their ability for self-renewal and multipotent differentiation. Differentiation, as well as proliferation, requires adaptations in the cell metabolism. However, only few data exist concerning the energy metabolism of non-differentiating and differentiating MSC. In this study we compared capacities of major energy metabolic pathways of MSC from human adipose tissue (adMSC) in vitro in the non-differentiated state with those of osteogenically or adipogenically differentiating adMSC. To this end we quantified the proliferation and differentiation status of adMSC and analyzed maximum enzyme capacities and several enzyme isoforms of major energy metabolic pathways regarding their activity and gene expression. We could show that non-differentiating and osteogenic cultivation conditions induced proliferation and showed increasing capacities of the glycolytic marker enzyme phosphofructokinase as well as the marker enzyme of the pentose phosphate pathway glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase. Adipogenic stimulation, which was accompanied by the absence of proliferation, reduced the glycolytic capacity (e.g. decreased glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase capacity) and induced an increase in mitochondrial enzyme capacities. These changes in energy metabolism might represent an adaptation of adMSC to the high energy demand during proliferation and to the specific cellular functions during osteogenic or adipogenic differentiation respectively.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Climate-Water Adaptation for Future US Electricity Infrastructure

Future climate-water conditions are anticipated to increase electricity demand, reduce transmission capacity, and limit power production. Yet, typical electricity capacity expansion planning does not consider climate-water constraints. We project four alternative U.S. power system configurations using an iterative modeling and data exchange platform that integrates climate-driven hydrological, thermal power plant, and capacity expansion models. Through a comparison with traditional modeling approaches, we show that this novel approach provides greater confidence in electricity capacity projections by incorporating feasibility checks that adjust infrastructure development to reach grid reliability thresholds under climate-water constraints. Initial projections without climate-water impacts on electricity generation show future power systems become less vulnerable, independent of climate-water adaptation, as economic drivers increase renewable and natural gas-based capacity, while water-intensive coal and nuclear plants retire. However, power systems may face reliability challenges without climate-water adaptation, revealing the significance of incorporating climate-water impacts into power system planning. Climate-adjusted (Iterative approach) projections require a 5.3-12.0% increase in national-level capacity, relative to Initial projections, leading to an additional $125-143 billion (5.0-7.0%) in infrastructure costs. Variable renewable and natural gas technologies account for nearly all the additional capacity and, together with regional trade-offs in electricity generation, enhance grid performance to reach reliability thresholds. These adaptation transitions also lower water use and emissions, contributing to climate change mitigation, and highlight the trade-offs and impacts of both near and long-term electricity generation planning decisions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗