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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

A Module for Assimilating Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles into the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation System for Unique Forecasting Applications

Hyperspectral infrared sounder radiance data are assimilated into operational modeling systems however the process is computationally expensive and only approximately 1% of available data are assimilated due to data thinning as well as the fact that radiances are restricted to cloud-free fields of view. In contrast, the number of hyperspectral infrared profiles assimilated is much higher since the retrieved profiles can be assimilated in some partly cloudy scenes due to profile coupling other data, such as microwave or neural networks, as first guesses to the retrieval process. As the operational data assimilation community attempts to assimilate cloud-affected radiances, it is possible that the use of retrieved profiles might offer an alternative methodology that is less complex and more computationally efficient to solve this problem. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has assimilated hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles into Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) System. Early research at SPoRT demonstrated improved initial conditions when assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) thermodynamic profiles into WRF (using WRF-Var and assigning more appropriate error weighting to the profiles) to improve regional analysis and heavy precipitation forecasts. Successful early work has led to more recent research utilizing WRF and GSI for applications including the assimilation of AIRS profiles to improve WRF forecasts of atmospheric rivers and assimilation of AIRS, Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) profiles to improve model representation of tropopause folds and associated non-convective wind events. Although more hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles can be assimilated into model forecasts, one disadvantage is the retrieved profiles have traditionally been assigned the same error values as the rawinsonde observations when assimilated with GSI. Typically, satellitederived profile errors are larger and more difficult to quantify than traditional rawinsonde observations (especially in the boundary layer), so it is important to appropriately assign observation errors within GSI to eliminate potential spurious innovations and analysis increments that can sometimes arise when using retrieved profiles. The goal of this study is to describe modifications to the GSI source code to more appropriately assimilate hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles and outline preliminary results that show the differences between a model simulation that assimilated the profiles as rawinsonde observations and one that assimilated the profiles in a module with the appropriate error values.

Berndt, Emily↗
DOE OSTI2025

Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Wind from Reanalysis Data and Application to Ukraine

With a potentially increasing share of the electricity grid relying on wind to provide generating capacity and energy, there is an expanding global need for historically accurate, spatiotemporally continuous, high-resolution wind data. Conventional downscaling methods for generating these data based on numerical weather prediction have a high computational burden and require extensive tuning for historical accuracy. In this work, we present a novel deep learning-based spatiotemporal downscaling method using generative adversarial networks (GANs) for generating historically accurate high-resolution wind resource data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis version 5 data (ERA5). In contrast to previous approaches, which used coarsened high-resolution data as low-resolution training data, we use true low-resolution simulation outputs. We show that by training a GAN model with ERA5 as the low-resolution input and Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit (WTK) data as the high-resolution target, we achieved results comparable in historical accuracy and spatiotemporal variability to conventional dynamical downscaling. This GAN-based downscaling method additionally reduces computational costs over dynamical downscaling by two orders of magnitude. We applied this approach to downscale 30 km, hourly ERA5 data to 2 km, 5 min wind data for January 2000 through December 2023 at multiple hub heights over Ukraine, Moldova, and part of Romania. With WTK coverage limited to North America from 2007–2013, this is a significant spatiotemporal generalization. The geographic extent centered on Ukraine was motivated by stakeholders and energy-planning needs to rebuild the Ukrainian power grid in a decentralized manner. This 24-year data record is the first member of the super-resolution for renewable energy resource data with wind from the reanalysis data dataset (Sup3rWind).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Optimization of Airport Runway Configuration with Forecast-Augmented Offline Reinforcement Learning

Runway configuration Management (RCM) governs the optimal utilization of runways based on variables such as traffic and meteorological conditions, making it a daunting task in air traffic management due to its dependency on volatile operational and environmental factors. This paper improves upon our previous work [1] on using offline model-free reinforcement learning for creating a Runway Configuration Assistance (RCA) decision-support tool. A novel integration of forecast data from LAMP (Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program) and TAF (Terminal Area Forecast) is introduced, enhancing the tool’s accuracy and also its adaptability to quick wind changes. The performance is evaluated using two major US airports, Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) and Denver International Airport (DEN). To counter scalability issues presented by the addition of discrete forecast variables, we transitioned to a continuous state space model, ensuring scalability and inclusion of longer forecast data. The results of our experiments reflect significant improvements in the RCA tool’s prediction accuracy.

Sumanth Nethi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Corrected NOAA HRRR Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications

To address the need for regularly updated wind resource data, NREL has processed the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs for use in grid integration modeling. The HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). Several barriers have prevented the HRRR's widespread proliferation in the wind energy industry: missing timesteps (prior to 2019), challenging file format for wind energy analysis, limited vertical height resolution, and negative bias versus legacy WIND Toolkit data (2007-2013). NREL has applied re-gridding, interpolation, and bias-correction to the native HRRR data to overcome these limitations. This results in the now-publicly-available bias corrected and interpolated HRRR (BC-HRRR) dataset for weather years 2015 to 2023. Bias correction is necessary for wind resource consistency across weather years to be used simultaneously in planning-focused grid integration studies alongside the original WIND Toolkit data. We show that quantile mapping with the WIND Toolkit as a historical baseline is an effective method for bias correcting the interpolated HRRR data: the BC-HRRR has reduced mean bias versus comparable gridded wind resource datasets (+0.12 m/s versus Vortex) and has very low mean bias versus ground measurement stations (+0.01 m/s) (Buster et al., 2024). BC-HRRR's consistency with the legacy WIND Toolkit allows NREL to extend grid integration analysis to 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. As with historical datasets like the WIND Toolkit, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling) both independently and alongside the legacy WIND Toolkit.

Array↗
NASA NTRS2003

Analysis and Forecast of Two Storms Characterized by Extreme Deepening Rates

Between 25 and 27 December 1999 two very intense cyclones, named Lothar and Martin, swept across northern and western France causing substantial life and property loss. In this work, the finite volume general circulation model and data assimilation system (fvDAS) developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA Goddard Space and Flight Center is being used to investigate these storms. In the first part of this article the dynamics of the storms is analyzed, and some important mechanisms are unveiled. The second part describes a set of eleven data assimilation experiments to study the impact of different data types on the automated analyses. Cloud-track winds provided by EUMETSAT and surface winds from QuikSCAT are being used. These data are assimilated with a range of different parameter settings of the forecast error covariance model. The results show that generally the additional wind data set have positive impacts on the analyses: particularly, the analysis of Lothar can be slightly improved by using the Eumetsat winds, and the analysis of Martin can be strongly improved by using the full-resolution QuikSCAT winds with a more localized influence. The third part of this article is focused on the forecast of Lothar which is very well predicted in the 1-5 day range by the fvDAS system.

Reale, Oreste↗
NASA NTRS2003

Mesoscale Assimilation of TMI Rainfall Data with 4DVAR: Sensitivity Studies

Sensitivity studies are performed on the assimilation of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) Microwave Imager (TMI) derived rainfall data into a mesoscale model using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique. A series of numerical experiments is conducted to evaluate the impact of TMI rainfall data on the numerical simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). The results indicate that rainfall data assimilation is sensitive to the error characteristics of the data and the inclusion of physics in the adjoint and forward models. In addition, assimilating the rainfall data alone is helpful for producing a more realistic eye and rain bands in the hurricane but does not ensure improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts. Further study indicated that it is necessary to incorporate TMI rainfall data together with other types of data such as wind data into the model, in which case the inclusion of the rainfall data further improves the intensity forecast of the hurricane. This implies that proper constraints may be needed for rainfall assimilation.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
DOE OSTI2023

NOW-23: the 2023 National Offshore Wind Data Set

In this report, we present the latest wind resource data specifically tailored for offshore regions in the United States. The data set, known as the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), has been developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners, and surpasses the previous resource data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was released approximately ten years ago, in its offshore component. The WIND Toolkit has been widely utilized by stakeholders involved in wind resource assessments across the continental United States. However, with significant advancements in numerical weather prediction modeling over the past decade, the NOW-23 data set incorporates the latest research and development progress to provide stakeholders with an updated and cutting-edge resource for offshore wind analysis. The NOW-23 data set is created using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its output is available, as for its predecessor, at 5-minute time resolution and 2-kilometer horizontal spatial resolution. However, the NOW-23 data set improves upon the WIND Toolkit through: 1. A modeling period of at least 20 years (and as long as 23 years in selected regions), starting in 2000 (compared to the 7-year 2007–2013 modeling period in the WIND Toolkit). 2. For several offshore regions, a region-specific sensitivity analysis, driven by an ensemble of WRF simulations, to assess the most adequate region-specific WRF setup. 3. An updated WRF model, from Version 3.4 used in the WIND Toolkit to Version 4.2.1 used for the NOW-23 data set, which incorporates significant research advancements. 4. The use of the state-of-the-art reanalysis product ERA5 (which supersedes the older ERA-Interim used in the WIND Toolkit) to provide atmospheric forcing at the WRF domain boundaries. Figure 1 shows the NOW-23 mean wind speed at 160 m above sea level (asl), which we use as proxy for hub-height of a commercial offshore wind turbine in this report across all regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Offshore reanalysis wind speed assessment across the wind turbine rotor layer off the United States Pacific coast

Abstract. The California Pacific coast is characterized by considerable wind resource and areas of dense population, propelling interest in offshore wind energy as the United States moves toward a sustainable and decarbonized energy future. Reanalysis models continue to serve the wind energy community in a multitude of ways, and the need for validation in locations where observations have been historically limited, such as offshore environments, is strong. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) owns two lidar buoys that collect wind speed observations across the wind turbine rotor layer along with meteorological and oceanographic data near the surface to characterize the wind resource. Lidar buoy data collected from recent deployments off the northern California coast near Humboldt County and the central California coast near Morro Bay allow for validation of commonly used reanalysis products. In this article, wind speeds from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), and the analysis system of the Rapid Refresh (RAP) are validated at heights within the wind turbine rotor layer ranging from 50 to 100 m. The validation results offer guidance on the performance and uncertainty associated with utilizing reanalyses for offshore wind resource characterization, providing the offshore wind energy community with information on the conditions that lead to reanalysis error. At both California coast locations, the reanalyses tend to underestimate the observed rotor-level wind resource. Occasions of large reanalysis error occur in conjunction with stable atmospheric conditions, wind speeds associated with peak turbine power production (> 10 m s−1), and mischaracterization of the diurnal wind speed cycle in summer months.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1993

Investigation of water vapor motion winds from geostationary satellites

Motions deduced in animated water vapor imagery from geostationary satellites can be used to infer wind fields in cloudless regimes. For the past several years, CIMSS has been exploring this potentially important source of global-scale wind information. Recently, METEOSAT-3 data has become routinely available to both the U.S. operational and research community. Compared with the current GOES satellite, the METEOSAT has a superior resolution (5 km vs. 16 km) in its water vapor channel. Preliminary work: at CIMSS has demonstrated that wind sets derived from METEOSAT water vapor imagery can provide important upper-tropospheric wind information in data void areas, and can positively impact numerical model guidance in meteorological applications. Specifically, hurricane track forecasts can be improved. Currently, we are exploring methods to further improve the derivation and quality of the water vapor wind sets.

Velden, Christopher↗
DOE OSTI2017

Theory and Transport of Nearly Incompressible Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence

The theory of nearly incompressible magnetohydrodynamics (NI MHD) was developed largely in the early 1990s, together with an important extension to inhomogeneous flows in 2010. Much of the focus in the earlier work was to understand the apparent incompressibility of the solar wind and other plasma environments, and the relationship of density fluctuations to apparently incompressible manifestations of turbulence in the solar wind and interstellar medium. Further important predictions about the “dimensionality” of solar wind turbulence and its relationship to the plasma beta were made and subsequently confirmed observationally. However, despite the initial success of NI MHD in describing fluctuations in the solar wind, a detailed application to solar wind turbulence has not been undertaken. Here, we use the equations of NI MHD to describe solar wind turbulence, rewriting the NI MHD system in terms of Elsässer variables. Distinct descriptions of 2D and slab turbulence emerge naturally from the Elsässer formulation, as do the nonlinear couplings between 2D and slab components. For plasma beta order 1 or less regions, predictions for 2D and slab spectra result from the NI MHD description, and predictions for the spectral characteristics of density fluctuations can be made. We conclude by presenting a NI MHD formulation describing the transport of majority 2D and minority slab turbulence throughout the solar wind. A preliminary comparison of theory and observations is presented.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Energy Cascade Rate in Compressible Fast and Slow Solar Wind Turbulence

Estimation of the energy cascade rate in the inertial range of solar wind turbulence has been done so far mostly within incompressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) theory. Here, we go beyond that approximation to include plasma compressibility using a reduced form of a recently derived exact law for compressible, isothermal MHD turbulence. Using in situ data from the THEMIS / ARTEMIS spacecraft in the fast and slow solar wind, we investigate in detail the role of the compressible fluctuations in modifying the energy cascade rate with respect to the prediction of the incompressible MHD model. In particular, we found that the energy cascade rate (1) is amplified particularly in the slow solar wind; (2) exhibits weaker fluctuations in spatial scales, which leads to a broader inertial range than the previous reported ones; (3) has a power-law scaling with the turbulent Mach number; (4) has a lower level of spatial anisotropy. Other features of solar wind turbulence are discussed along with their comparison with previous studies that used incompressible or heuristic (nonexact) compressible MHD models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2010

Adaptive and Efficient Computing for Subsurface Simulation within ParFlow

This project is concerned with the PF.WRF model as a means to enable more accurate predictions of wind fluctuations and subsurface storage. As developed at LLNL, PF.WRF couples a groundwater (subsurface) and surface water flow model (ParFlow) to a mesoscale atmospheric model (WRF, Weather Research and Forecasting Model). It was developed as a unique tool to address coupled water balance and wind energy questions that occur across traditionally separated research regimes of the atmosphere, land surface, and subsurface. PF.WRF is capable of simulating fluid, mass, and energy transport processes in groundwater, vadose zone, root zone, and land surface systems, including overland flow, and allows for the WRF model to both directly drive and respond to surface and subsurface hydrologic processes and conditions. The current PF.WRF model is constrained to have uniform spatial gridding below the land surface and matching areal grids with the WRF model at the land surface. There are often cases where it is advantageous for land surface, overland flow and subsurface models to have finer gridding than their atmospheric counterparts. Finer vertical discretization is also advantageous near the land surface (to properly capture feedbacks) yet many applications have a large vertical extent. However, the surface flow is strongly dependent on topography leading to a need for greater lateral resolution in some regions and the subsurface flow is tightly coupled to the atmospheric model near the surface leading to a need for finer vertical resolution. In addition, the interactions (e.g. rain) will be highly variable in space and time across the problem domain so an adaptive scheme is preferred to a static strategy to efficiently use computing and memory resources. As a result, this project focussed on algorithmic research required for development of an adaptive simulation capability in the PF.WRF system and its subsequent use in an application problem in the Central Valley of California. This report documents schemes of use for a future implementation of an adaptive grid capability within the ParFlow subsurface flow simulator in PF.WRF. The methods describe specific handling of the coarse/fine boundaries within a cell-centered discretization of the nonlinear parabolic Richards equation model for variable saturated flow. In addition, we describe development of a spline fit and table lookup method implemented within ParFlow to enhance computational efficiency of variably saturated flow calculations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamical Downscaling of Earth System Model Data for Energy System Analysis

Assessing energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, and hydro) under future scenarios requires datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to capture variability and extreme events. While global-scale Earth System Model (ESM) projections are widely used, their coarse resolution limits direct application to regional energy system analyses. Dynamical downscaling offers a robust approach to generate physically consistent, fine-scale datasets that better represent local atmospheric processes impacting energy resources. In this work, we present a two-stage approach for producing high-resolution historical and future projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). First, we optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configuration for energy-relevant variables - solar irradiance, wind speed, and precipitation - by conducting ERA5-driven simulations at 8-km and 28-km resolution. Multiple physics schemes and model configurations within the WRF are evaluated against observational datasets including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product for the CONUS domain. Using the best-performing configuration, we dynamically downscale MPI-ESM1-2-HR simulations for 2000-2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 4-km spatial and hourly temporal resolution. This presentation will provide a comprehensive analysis of the results from multiple numerical experiments and high-resolution ESM projections. In addition, we will discuss potential applications of our high-resolution datasets within the energy sector and outline future research avenues dedicated to evaluating how extreme weather events influence system performance and resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forecasting Megaelectron-Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: PreMevE 2.0 Based on Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms

We present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for megaelectron-volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earth's outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, provides improved forecasts, particularly at outer L-shells, by adding upstream solar wind speeds to the model's input parameter list that originally includes precipitating electrons observed at low Earth orbits and MeV electron fluxes in situ measured by a geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial neural networks algorithms, a list of models was constructed, trained, validated, and tested with 42-month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out-of-sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1-day (2-day) forecasts of 1-MeV electron flux distributions with performance efficiency values ~0.87 (~0.82) averaged over the L-shell range of 2.8–6.6, significantly outperforming the previous version of PreMevE particularly at L-shells > ~4.5. Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful when compared to other models, which suggests the relationship between dynamics of trapped 1-MeV electrons and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. Results also show that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably well predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2-day forecasts. PreMevE 2.0 is designed to be driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure to make high-fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2008

Impact of Local Sensors

Forecasters at the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) use observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) wind tower network and the CCAFS (XMR) daily rawinsonde observations (RAOB) to issue and verify wind advisories and warnings for operations. These observations are also used by the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) in Houston, Texas and the NWS Melbourne, Florida (NWS MLB) to initialize their locally-run mesoscale models. In addition, SMG uses these observations to support shuttle landings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF). Due to impending budget cuts, some or all of the KSC/CCAFS wind towers on the east-central Florida mainland and the XMR RAOBs may be eliminated. The locations of the mainland towers and XMR RAOB site are shown in Figure I. The loss of these data may impact the forecast capability of the 45 WS, SMG and NWS MLB. The AMU was tasked to conduct an objective independent modeling study to help determine how important these observations are to the accuracy of the model output used by the forecasters. To accomplish this, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) performed a sensitivity study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized with and without KSC/CCAFS wind tower and XMR RAOB data.

Watson, Leela R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Mesoscale Assimilation of TRMM Data with 4DVAR: Preliminary Results

Surface rainfall data, derived from the TRMM Microwave Image (TMI), are assimilated into the PSU/NCAR MM5 model using a 4DVAR technique. Preliminary experiments are performed to incorporate TRMM rainfall data into a hurricane initialization. It is found that the rainfall data assimilation is sensitive to the error characteristics of the data and the physics in the adjoint model. In addition, assimilating the rainfall data alone produces a more realistic eye and rain bands in the hurricane but cannot ensure improvements of hurricane intensity forecasts. Numerical results indicate that it is necessary to incorporate TRMM rainfall data together with other types of data such as wind data into the model, in which case the inclusion of the rainfall data will further improve the intensity forecast of the hurricane. This fact might imply that some proper constraints will be needed for the rainfall assimilation. Relevant results and issues will be presented.

Pu, Zhoa-Xia↗
DOE OSTI2016

Impacts of Short-Term Solar Power Forecasts in System Operations

Solar generation is experiencing an exponential growth in power systems worldwide and, along with wind power, is posing new challenges to power system operations. Those challenges are characterized by an increase of system variability and uncertainty across many time scales: from days, down to hours, minutes, and seconds. Much of the research in the area has focused on the effect of solar forecasting across hours or days. This paper presents a methodology to capture the effect of short-term forecasting strategies and analyzes the economic and reliability implications of utilizing a simple, yet effective forecasting method for solar PV in intra-day operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

An evaluation of meteorological data prediction over Washington, D.C.: Comparison of DCNet observations and NAM model outputs

This study presents an example of how outputs of operational and readily-available mesoscale numerical models can be adapted to initialize dispersion calculations within the urban surface roughness layer. Three years of urban meteorological observations from central Washington, DC, are compared against forecast outputs of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. NAM wind speed predictions underestimate the observations in light winds and overestimate the measurements in high winds. Average wind directions are consistent. However, an adjustment of the predicted direction of the plume by –20° is needed. The uncertainty associated with this adjustment is large in light NAM wind speed with no evident variation by season. The values of the standard deviation of the wind direction, σθ derived from NAM model outputs underestimate the observations by a small amount (about –1.5 to –2.5°). The results presented here indicate that mesoscale numerical model outputs can provide information adequate for dispersion calculations. However, levels of uncertainty associated with implementation of the suggested procedures increase with decreasing wind speed, causing considerable uncertainty in the implementation of adjustments as low wind speed conditions are approached. Results and recommendations reported here should not be extended to other numerical models or other cities without further testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗