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NASA NTRS2015

Predicting the Mineral Composition of Dust Aerosols: Representing Key Processes - Part 1

Soil dust aerosols created by wind erosion are typically assigned globally uniform physical and chemical properties within Earth system models, despite known regional variations in the mineral content of the parent soil. Mineral composition of the aerosol particles is important to their interaction with climate, including shortwave absorption and radiative forcing, nucleation of cloud droplets and ice crystals, heterogeneous formation of sulfates and nitrates, and atmospheric processing of iron into bioavailable forms that increase the productivity of marine phytoplankton. Here, aerosol mineral composition is derived by extending a method that provides the composition of a wet-sieved soil. The extension accounts for measurements showing significant differences between the mineral fractions of the wetsieved soil and the emitted aerosol concentration. For example, some phyllosilicate aerosols are more prevalent at silt sizes, even though they are nearly absent at these diameters in a soil whose aggregates are dispersed by wet sieving. We calculate the emitted mass of each mineral with respect to size by accounting for the disintegration of soil aggregates during wet sieving. These aggregates are emitted during mobilization and fragmentation of the original undispersed soil that is subject to wind erosion. The emitted aggregates are carried far downwind from their parent soil. The soil mineral fractions used to calculate the aggregates also include larger particles that are suspended only in the vicinity of the source. We calculate the emitted size distribution of these particles using a normalized distribution derived from aerosol measurements. In addition, a method is proposed for mixing minerals with small impurities composed of iron oxides. These mixtures are important for transporting iron far from the dust source, because pure iron oxides are more dense and vulnerable to gravitational removal than most minerals comprising dust aerosols. A limited comparison to measurements from North Africa shows that the model extensions result in better agreement, consistent with a more extensive comparison to global observations as well as measurements of elemental composition downwind of the Sahara, as described in companion articles.

aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2016

First Detection of Non-Chlorinated Organic Molecules Indigenous to a Martian Sample

The Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument onboard Curiosity can perform pyrolysis of martian solid samples, and analyze the volatiles by direct mass spectrometry in evolved gas analysis (EGA) mode, or separate the components in the GCMS mode (coupling the gas chromatograph and the mass spectrometer instruments). In addition, SAM has a wet chemistry laboratory designed for the extraction and identification of complex and refractory organic molecules in the solid samples. The chemical derivatization agent used, N-methyl-N-tert-butyldimethylsilyl- trifluoroacetamide (MTBSTFA), was sealed inside seven Inconel metal cups present in SAM. Although none of these foil-capped derivatization cups have been punctured on Mars for a full wet chemistry experiment, an MTBSTFA leak was detected and the resultant MTBSTFA vapor inside the instrument has been used for a multi-sol MTBSTFA derivatization (MD) procedure instead of direct exposure to MTBSTFA liquid by dropping a solid sample directly into a punctured wet chemistry cup. Pyr-EGA, Pyr-GCMS and Der-GCMS experiments each led to the detection and identification of a variety of organic molecules in diverse formations of Gale Crater.

Freissinet, C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Low to Extremely Low Water Abundances Measured in Nominally Anhydrous Minerals in Mafic to Granitic Apollo Rock Clasts

Lunar sample-based volatile studies have focused on assessing the inventory and distribution of water in the Moon. Some have focused on the relatively young mare basalts and pyroclastic glasses, which result from partial melting of the relatively young lunar mantle. Less certain is the water inventory for the oldest materials available, which have the greater potential to record the earliest history of volatiles in the Moon (and thus provide evidence for the "wet" vs. "dry" accretion hypotheses of the Earth-Moon system. Studies of volatiles in ancient lunar rocks have largely focused on apatite. One recent FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared Radiometer) study of plagioclase reported a relatively "wet" (approximately 320 parts per million) magma for primordial ferroan anorthosites (FANs). Another, a NanoSIMS study of alkali feldspar, reported a "wet" (approximately 1 weight percentage) felsic magma, but due to the differentiation processes required for silicic magmatism in the lunar crust, predicted an essentially "dry" (less than 100 parts per million) bulk Moon. Thus, despite evidence that appears to complicate the early "dry" Moon paradigm, there is no apparent unanimity among the measurements, even those on apatite. This disparity is clearly seen by the order of magnitude different water estimates for lunar "alkali-rich suite rocks" (Fig. 1). Some of the apparent differences may be explained by recent improvements in the apatite-based water estimates that better account for relative compatibilities of OH-, Cl, and F. In the present work, we seek to expand our understanding of the volatile abundances in early formed lunar magmas, their source reservoirs, and to address the potential role that felsic magmas play on the lunar hydrogen budget over time by employing NanoSIMS analysis of nominally anhydrous minerals.

Simon, J. I.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Potassium-Argon Laser Experiment (KArLE): Design Concepts

The absolute ages of geologic events are fundamental information for understanding the timing and duration of surface processes on planetary bodies. Absolute ages can place a planet's history in the context of the solar system evolution. For example, "when was Mars warm and wet?" is one of the key questions of planetary science. If Mars was warm and wet until 3.7 billion years ago, for instance, it suggests that Mars was still warm and wet when life appeared on Earth. Mars history has been discussed so far based on crater chronology, but the current constraints for Martian chronology models come from the cratering history of the Moon [1]. Moreover, the lunar chronology model itself is fraught with uncertainty because our understanding of lunar chronology is constrained only in a few time periods and itself needs further investigation relating crater-counting ages to absolute ages [2]. Although sample return missions would provide highly accurate radiometric ages of returned samples, they are very expensive and technically challenging. In situ geochronology is highly valuable because they would have larger number of mission opportunities and the capability of iterative measurements for multiple rocks from multiple geologic units. The capability of flight instruments to perform in situ dating is required in the NASA Planetary Science Decadal Survey and the NASA Technology Roadmap. Beagle 2 is the only mission launched to date with the explicit aim to perform in situ potassium-argon (K-Ar) dating [3], but it did not happen because of the communication failure to the spacecraft. The first in situ K-Ar dating on Mars, using SAM and APXS measurements on the Cumberland mudstone [4], yielded an age of 4.21 +/- 0.35 Ga and validated the idea of K-Ar dating on other planets. However, the Curiosity method is not purposebuilt for dating and requires many assumptions that degrade its accuracy. To obtain more accurate and meaningful ages, multiple groups are developing dedicated in situ dating instruments [5-8].

design↗
NASA NTRS2017

Investigation of Global Particulate Nitrate from the AeroCom Phase III Experiment

An assessment of global particulate nitrate and ammonium aerosol based on simulations from nine models participating in the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) phase III study is presented. A budget analysis was conducted to understand the typical magnitude, distribution, and diversity of the aerosols and their precursors among the models. To gain confidence regarding model performance, the model results were evaluated with various observations globally, including ground station measurements over North America, Europe, and east Asia for tracer concentrations and dry and wet depositions, as well as with aircraft measurements in the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes for tracer vertical distributions. Given the unique chemical and physical features of the nitrate occurrence, we further investigated the similarity and differentiation among the models by examining (1) the pH-dependent NH3 wet deposition; (2) the nitrate formation via heterogeneous chemistry on the surface of dust and sea salt particles or thermodynamic equilibrium calculation including dust and sea salt ions; and (3) the nitrate coarse-mode fraction (i.e., coarse/total). It is found that HNO3, which is simulated explicitly based on full O3-HOx-NOx-aerosol chemistry by all models, differs by up to a factor of 9 among the models in its global tropospheric burden. This partially contributes to a large difference in NO3(-), whose atmospheric burden differs by up to a factor of 13. The atmospheric burdens of NH3 and NHC 4 differ by 17 and 4, respectively. Analyses at the process level show that the large diversity in atmospheric burdens of NO3(-), NH3, and NHC4(+) is also related to deposition processes. Wet deposition seems to be the dominant process in determining the diversity in NH3 and NHC 4 lifetimes. It is critical to correctly account for contributions of heterogeneous chemical production of nitrate on dust and sea salt, because this process overwhelmingly controls atmospheric nitrate production (typically greater than 80 %) and determines the coarse- and fine-mode distribution of nitrate aerosol.

Ammonium aerosol based on simulations↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Antarctic Analogy for Ancient Lakes at Gale Crater, Mars

In place of the dual choice of “warm and wet” versus “cold and dry” Mars, we reconcile in this paper the notion of a cold Mars with the notion of wet Mars. Both the geological evidences at Gale's for the presence of liquid water during the Hesperian (Grotzinger et al., Science, 350 (6257), 2015) and the failure of climate models make Mars warm (Wordsworth, Review of Earth and Planetary Science, 44, 1-31, 2016) suggested that an alternative scenario could be envisioned. The lake Untersee, Antarctica is an inspiring example of how an aqueous environment can survive for an extended period of the time in a place where the day average temperatures never, ever, each 273K. The key process which maintains a liquid, potentially habitable, environment under the ice is the subaqueous melting of a glacial dam in contact with the lake which provides a constant latent heat flux into the lake (McKay et al, in preparation) Our calculations showed that for certain range of pressures, temperatures and ice optical properties, a large body of water at Gale's will not freeze solid even if the surface temperatures are at all times well below freezing. The rather high sublimation rates of ice at Mars', the sunlight penetrating the ice and the geothermal flux contribute to stabilize the solid/liquid interface at a certain depth. We found that for a mean annual temperature of 245K ice thicknesses range from 3-10 meters which are comparable values to the range of those for the Antarctic lakes (2-7m). Thus, the ice potentially gets thin enough to let sediments penetrate the ice (Rivera-Hernandez et al., in preparation) and geological features associated with aqueous environments may still be possible with a perennially-covered lake, on cold, but wet planet. The Antarctic lakes model is engaging as it relaxes the requirement for a long-lived active hydrological cycle.

The lake Untersee↗
NASA NTRS2019

Scaling Evaluation of Ice-Crystal Icing on a Modern Turbofan Engine in PSL Using the COMDES-MELT Code

This paper presents preliminary ice-crystal icing (ICI) altitude scaling evaluation results of a Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine (HURE) that was tested in the NASA Glenn Research Center Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) during January of 2018. This engine geometry features a hidden core design to keep the core less exposed. The engine was fitted with internal video cameras to observe various ice buildup processes at multiple selected locations within the engine core flow path covering the fan stator, the splitter-lip/shroud/strut, and the high pressure compressor (HPC) variable inlet guide vane (IGV) regions. The potential ice accretion risk was pre-determined to occur by using NASA’s in-house 1D Engine Icing Risk assessment code, COMDES-MELT. The code was successful in predicting the risk of ice accretion in adiabatic regions like the fan-stator of the HURE at specific engine operating points. However at several operating points during the test, liquid water was observed running along the shroud toward the variable IGV of the HPC regions with an air temperature well below freezing, thus no particle melting could have occurred due to heating from the air alone. It was reasoned that other sources of heat were present in that region. To account for these heat sources the inlet total temperature was adjusted to give a wet bulb temperature of 24 F below the standard minimum wet bulb temperature of 492 R to allow ice to accrete in the splitter-lip/shroud/strut region, which was determined from a reference case where hard ice was observed in that region. With that adjustment the COMDES-MELT code was successful in providing operating points where there was a risk of ice accretion during the test campaign. In addition to calculating possible conditions at different selected lower altitudes, simulations were run to determine potential inlet conditions that could lead to ice-crystal accretion along the prescribed stations where the cameras were available. From there, scaled test conditions were determined by best matching the following three icing related parameters of the reference condition: (1) the local air total wet bulb temperature, (2) the local ice crystal cloud melt ratio and (3) the engine fan face ice/water to air mass flux ratio of the ice crystal cloud. Instantaneous images taken from the time-lapsed movies of ice buildup were used along with the relevant thermodynamic data of air, water vapor and local icing condition to help evaluate how closely the proposed altitude scaling method could be used in ground based test facility to duplicate selected reference ICI features observed at specific location inside this engine at different scale altitudes. Discussions on observed limitation for engine icing scaling application from this test campaign and needed improvement are provided. A scaling test procedure to help identify potential ICI risk conditions and possible ice accretion locations of a new turbofan engine is evaluated in PSL.

Engine Testing in PSL↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Ancient Martian Climate System

Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable at the surface. But there is evidence that very early in its history, some 3.7-4.1 billion years ago, the climate system supported much warmer conditions including an active hydrological cycle with rainfall and runoff. Given the importance of liquid water to astrobiology and NASA’s Mars Exploration Program, researchers have been trying to understand the ancient martian climate system since the early 1970s when the Mariner 9 spacecraft first detected fluvial features on its oldest terrains. Though the evidence for warm wet conditions is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed the sun’s luminosity was ~25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of ancient Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the “Faint Young Sun Paradox”, as it is commonly known, rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, for Mars there is no solution in sight. Long-lived continuously warm and wet atmospheres are difficult to produce and sustain. And a new and emerging idea - that ancient Mars was fundamentally a cold planet with transient episodes of warm wet conditions brought about by external forcings such as impacts, volcanism, and/or orbital changes – also has issues. In this seminar I will review this fascinating topic and discuss some of the recent ideas on how to solve it, the issues they raise, and what I believe are some promising avenues for future research.

Haberle, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Exploring the Utility of Machine Learning-Based Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Data Assimilation over Terrestrial Snow in High Mountain Asia

This study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) as the observation operator within a passive microwave brightness temperature data assimilation framework (herein SVM-DA) to enhance the characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) over High Mountain Asia (HMA). A series of synthetic twin experiments were conducted with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) at a number of locations across HMA. Overall, the SVM-DA framework is effective at improving SWE estimates (~70% reduction in RMSE relative to the Open Loop) for SWE depths less than 200 mm during dry snowpack conditions. The SVM-DA framework also improves SWE estimates in deep, wet snow (~45% reduction in RMSE) when snow liquid water is well estimated by the land surface model, but can lead to model degradation when snow liquid water estimates diverge from values used during SVM training. In particular, two key challenges of using the SVM-DA framework were observed over deep, wet snowpacks. First, variations in snow liquid water content dominate the brightness temperature spectral difference (TB) signal associated with emission from a wet snowpack, which can lead to abrupt changes in SWE during the analysis update. Second, the ensemble of SVM-based predictions can collapse (i.e., yield a near-zero standard deviation across the ensemble) when prior estimates of snow are outside the range of snow inputs used during the SVM training procedure. Such a scenario can lead to the presence of spurious error correlations between SWE and TB, and as a consequence, can result in degraded SWE estimates from the analysis update. These degraded analysis updates can be largely mitigated by applying rule-based approaches. For example, restricting the SWE update when the standard deviation of the predicted TB is greater than 0.05 K helps prevent the occurrence of filter divergence. Similarly, adding a thin layer (i.e., 5 mm) of SWE when the synthetic TB is larger than 5 K can improve SVM-DA performance in the presence of a precipitation dry bias. The study demonstrates that a carefully constructed SVM-DA framework cognizant of the inherent limitations of passive microwave-based SWE estimation holds promise for snow mass data assimilation.

Kwon, Yonghwan↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates in the Lower Mekong River Basin (Southeast Asia)

Satellite-based precipitation is an essential tool for regional water resource applications that requires frequent observations of meteorological forcing, particularly in areas that have sparse rain gauge networks. To fully realize the utility of remotely sensed precipitation products in watershed modeling and decision-making, a thorough evaluation of the accuracy of satellite-based rainfall and regional gauge network estimates is needed. In this study, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 v.7 and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) daily rainfall estimates were compared with daily rain gauge observations from 2000 to 2014 in the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) in Southeast Asia. Monthly, seasonal, and annual comparisons were performed, which included the calculations of correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, bias, root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Our validation test showed TMPA to correctly detect precipitation or no-precipitation 64.9% of all days and CHIRPS 66.8% of all days, compared to daily in-situ rainfall measurements. The accuracy of the satellite-based products varied greatly between the wet and dry seasons. Both TMPA and CHIRPS showed higher correlation with in-situ data during the wet season (June–September) as compared to the dry season (November–January). Additionally, both performed better on a monthly than an annual time-scale when compared to in-situ data. The satellite-based products showed wet biases during months that received higher cumulative precipitation. Based on a spatial correlation analysis, the average r-value of CHIRPS was much higher than TMPA across the basin. CHIRPS correlated better than TMPA at lower elevations and for monthly rainfall accumulation less than 500 mm. While both satellite-based products performed well, as compared to rain gauge measurements, the present research shows that CHIRPS might be better at representing precipitation over the LMRB than TMPA.

Dandridge, Chelsea↗
NASA NTRS2020

Leveraging Google Earth Engine User Interface for Semiautomated Wetland Classification in the Great Lakes Basin at 10 m With Optical and Radar Geospatial Datasets

As one of the world’s largest freshwater ecosystems,the Great Lakes Basin houses hundreds of thousands of acres of wetlands that support a variety of crucial ecological and environmental functions at the local, regional, and global levels.Monitoring these wetlands is critical to conservation and restoration efforts, however current methods that rely on field monitoring are labor-intensive, costly, and often outdated. In this study, we present a graphical user interface constructed in Google Earth Engine called the Wetland Extent Tool (WET),which allows semi-automatic wetland classification according to a user-input area of interest and date range. WET composites datasets and conducts multi source, moderate resolution processing utilizing Landsat 8 OLI, Sentinel-2 MSI, Sentinel-1 C-SAR, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) datasets to classify wetlands in the entire Great Lakes Basin. We evaluated classification results of wetlands, uplands, and open water from May-September 2019, and tested whether SRTM elevation, slope,or the Dynamic Surface Water Extent produced the most accurate results in each Great Lake Basin in conjunction with optical indices and radar composites. We found that elevation produced the most accurate classification in Lake Erie, Michigan,and Ontario, while slope performed best in Lake Huron and Superior. Lake Erie, Michigan, Ontario, and Huron achieved high overall accuracy and identification of wetlands. WET leverages cloud-computing for multi source processing of moderate resolution remote sensing data, and employs a user interface in Google Earth Engine that wetland managers and conservationists can use to monitor wetland extent in the Great Lakes Basin in near real-time.

Vanessa L Valenti↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Unrealized Potential of Superhydrophobic Substrates in Advanced Life Support Systems

Nearly all water processing equipment aboard spacecraft is to a large extent controlled by capillary forces arising from substrate wetting conditions. Superhydrophobic wetting conditions provide an essentially passive means to keep water away from certain substrates providing a level of no-moving-parts phase separation and control. This work presents a host of non-wetting aqueous microgravity capillary fluidics phenomena arising from interactions with easily fabricated superhydrophobic substrates. The value of such phenomena for potential life support applications aboard spacecraft is clear, especially for substrate properties that are thermally robust, corrosion resistant, and self-cleaning for both long- and short term applications. Large length scale low-g demonstrations of the phenomena are provided in HD video format for the extensive drop tower tests conducted. The broader crosscutting impacts to numerous fluids processing operations for life support are discussed. Current practical applications addressed in light of superhydrophobicity include urine-processing, water recovery, fire safety, and others.

Superhydrophoic↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Updated Human Mars Ascent Vehicle Concept in Support of NASA’s Strategic Analysis Cycle 2021

The NASA Artemis program has brought significant change to the agency’s human exploration strategy over the last several years. The human exploration of Mars remains an ultimate objective of the overall human exploration strategy. However, how the agency intends to execute initial human exploration of Mars has shifted to better align with current policy. These changes find their way into the design of key architecture elements, such as the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV). Of the numerous changes in the conceptual human Mars architecture, two in particular have had significant impact on the design of the human MAV: the desire for minimal surface infrastructure for initial human Mars missions, and technology investment timelines in support of initial human missions to Mars. The first leads to a surface mission architecture targeting a 30-day surface duration with two crewmembers. The second drives out in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) from the initial sortie. As a result, the reference MAV design for initial human Mars missions in the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate’s Strategic Analysis Cycle 2021 (SAC21) is based around supporting the return of 2 crew from the surface of Mars, without surface ISRU. This has led to several design changes since 2019, when details of a reference human MAV were last published. The MAV concept for SAC21 consists of a two-stage vehicle capable of supporting two crew for 84 hours. This duration is derived from a baseline ascent trajectory targeting an apoapsis rendezvous with the habitation element in a nominal 5-sol Mars aggregation orbit. With the goal of minimizing technology investments for the initial surface sortie removing ISRU from the trade space, the MAV must now be landed either fully loaded with propellant, or with some portion of the propellant off-loaded. Landing a partially-fueled MAV will require additional surface assets to perform robotic propellant transfer on the surface of Mars from a pre-emplaced propellant depot. Furthermore, cryogenic fluid management and storage for extended duration with no losses represents additional technology investment that would have to be made to support cryogenic-based propellant concepts that have been the baseline in past architectures. As a result, the SAC21 architecture utilizes a storable propellant-based MAV propulsion system to minimize these potential technology investments incurred by cryogenic-based propulsion systems. Recent efforts also focused on evaluating the sensitivity of key design parameters, such as landing site latitude, elevation, and local atmospheric conditions. All play a large role in determining the predicted propellant requirements of the MAV. Understanding their potential impacts is important because of the rippling effects of changes to the MAV design on other architecture elements, such as entry, descent, landing, and transportation systems. Results indicate up to +2% to -4% wet mass variation due to landing site latitude, with higher latitudes greater than 70 degrees North resulting in greater than 6% wet mass increases. The MAV saw reduced impact due to atmospheric design parameters, which only accounting for -0.6% to +0.4% wet mass variation.

Douglas J. Trent↗
NASA NTRS2021

COVID-19 Lockdowns Drive Decline in Active Fires in Southeastern United States

Fire is a common ecosystem process in forests and grasslands worldwide. Increasingly, ignitions are controlled by human activities either through suppression of wildfires or intentional ignition of prescribed fires. The Southeastern United States leads the nation in prescribed fire, burning ca. 80% of the countries extent annually. The COVID-19 pandemic radically changed human behavior as workplaces implemented social-distancing guidelines and provided an opportunity to evaluate relationships between humans and fire as fire management plans were postponed or cancelled. Using active fire data from satellite-based observations, we found that in the Southeastern United States, COVID-19 led to a 21% reduction in fire activity compared to the 2003-2019 average. The reduction was more pronounced for federally managed lands, up to 41% below average compared to the past 20-years (38% below average compared to the past decade). Declines in fire activity were partly affected by an unusually wet February before the COVID-19 shutdown began in mid-March 2020. Despite the wet spring, the predicted number of active fire detections was still lower than expected, confirming a COVID-19 signal on ignitions. In addition, prescribed fire management statistics, reported by US federal agencies, confirmed the satellite observations, and showed that following the wet February and before the mid-March COVID-19 shutdown, cumulative burned area was approaching record highs across the region. With fire return intervals in the Southeastern United States as frequent as 1-2 years, COVID-19 fire impacts will contribute to an increasing backlog in necessary fire management activities, affecting biodiversity and future fire danger.

Biological Sciences↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Efficacy of Seasonal Terrestrial Water Storage Forecasts for Predicting Vegetation Activity Over Africa

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) provides important information on terrestrial hydroclimate and may have value for seasonal forecasting because of its strong persistence. We use the NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System (NHyFAS) to investigate TWS forecast skill over Africa and assess its value for predicting vegetation activity from satellite estimates of leaf area index (LAI). Forecast skill is high over East and Southern Africa, extending up to 3–6 months in some cases, with more modest skill over West Africa. Highest skill generally occurs during the dry season or beginning of the wet season when TWS anomalies from the previous wet season are most likely to carry forward in time. In East Africa, this occurs prior to and during the transition into the spring “Long Rains” from January–March, while in Southern Africa this period of highest skill starts at the beginning of the dry season in April and extends through to the start of the wet season in October. TWS is highly and positively correlated with LAI, and a logistic regression model shows high cross-validation skill in predicting above or below normal LAI using TWS. Combining the LAI regression model with the NHyFAS forecasts, 1-month lead LAI predictions have high accuracy over East and Southern Africa, with reduced but significant skill at 3-month leads over smaller sub-regions. This highlights the potential value of TWS as an additional source of information for seasonal forecasts over Africa, with direct applications to some of the most vulnerable agricultural regions on the continent.

Terrestrial water shortage↗
NASA NTRS2021

Placing the East-West North American Aridity Gradient in a Multi-Century Context

Instrumental records indicate a century-long trend towards drying over western North America and wetting over eastern North America. A continuation of these trends into the future would have significant hydroclimatic and socioeconomic consequences in both the semi-arid Southwest and humid East. Using tree-ring reconstructions and hydrologic simulations of summer soil moisture, we evaluate and contextualize the modern summer aridity gradient within its natural range of variability established over the past 600 years and evaluate the effects of observed and anthropogenic precipitation, temperature, and humidity trends. The 2001–2020 positive (wet east-dry west) aridity gradient was larger than any 20-year period since 1400 CE, preceded by the most negative (wet west-dry east) aridity gradient during 1976-1995, leading to a strong multi-decade reversal in aridity gradient anomalies that was rivaled only by a similar event in the late-16th century. The 2001-2020 aridity gradient was dominated by long-term summer precipitation increases in the Midwest and Northeast, with smaller contributions from more warming in the West than the East and spring precipitation decreases in the Southwest. Multi-model mean climate simulations from CMIP6 experiments suggest anthropogenic climate trends should not have strongly affected the aridity gradient thus far. However, there is high uncertainty due to inter-model disagreement on anthropogenic precipitation trends. The recent strengthening of the observed aridity gradient, its increasing dependence on precipitation variability, and disagreement in modeled anthropogenic precipitation trends reveal significant uncertainties in how water resource availability will change across North America in the coming decades.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2022

Circumpolar Ocean Stability on Mars 3 Gy Ago

What was the nature of the Late Hesperian climate, warm and wet or cold and dry? Formulated this way the question leads to an apparent paradox since both options seem implausible. A warm and wet climate would have produced extensive fluvial erosion but few valley networks have been observed at the age of the Late Hesperian. A too cold climate would have kept any northern ocean frozen most of the time. A moderate cold climate would have transferred the water from the ocean to the land in the form of snow and ice. But this would prevent tsunami formation, for which there is some evidence. Here, we provide insights from numerical climate simulations in agreement with surface geological features to demonstrate that the Martian climate could have been both cold and wet. Using an advanced general circulation model (GCM), we demonstrate that an ocean can be stable, even if the Martian mean surface temperature is lower than 0 ∘C. Rainfall is moderate near the shorelines and in the ocean. The southern plateau is mostly covered by ice with a mean temperature below 0 ∘C and a glacier return flow back to the ocean. This climate is achieved with a 1-bar CO2-dominated atmosphere with 10% H2. Under this scenario of 3 Ga, the geologic evidence of a shoreline and tsunami deposits along the ocean/land dichotomy are compatible with ice sheets and glacial valleys in the southern highlands.

Mars↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Plant Water Management Experiments: Soil

A simple means of watering plants in the low-g environment aboard orbiting spacecraft is not obvious. Since the beginning of spaceflight, numerous approaches have been pursued to water plants that seek to maximize plant viability and system reliability, while minimizing crew time and system complexity. We are not there yet. The Plant Water Management (PWM) Soil experiments seek to apply recent advances in low-g capillary fluidics phenomena to the challenges faced by plant growth operations aboard spacecraft. The primary challenge is to establish earth-like flows minimizing low-g specific adaptations required of the plants. This is difficult due to the ever-present fluid physics challenges of poorly-wetting multiphase inertial-visco-capillary flows in geometrically complex conduits and containers. In this paper, we present recent flight results for the PWM Soil experiments where arcillite ‘soil reservoirs’ are arranged in a non-wetting host soil that serves as an O2-breathing wetting barrier. In this way, a largely terrestrial water-soil environment is mimicked where, as liquid is evapo-transpired through the growing plant foliage, the effective water table passively ‘falls’ reducing viscous lengths and increasing water uptake for the plant. We present data from 6 days of 24-7 experiments on the ISS testing 3 different plant root models. We also present and correlate a capillary flow model which captures the primary features of the flow. Our summary is valued for the assessment of current and future low-g plant watering systems employing soil media.

microgravity↗