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NASA NTRS1991

Mars Elysium Basin - Geologic/volumetric analysis of a young lake and exobiologic implications

Geologic, physiographic, and topographic data on the Elysium Basin on the Martial lowland plains are used to determine the former volume of water in the basin and the sources of this water. The maximum extent of the paleolake was estimated to be about 2,000,000 sq km, with a water volume of 850,000 cu km or more, supplied to the basin from many sources in the highlands via inflow channels. The climatic and biological implications that the Elysium-Basin sea or lake might have had are discussed.

Scott, D. H.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Modeling golden eagle‐vehicle collisions to design mitigation strategies

ABSTRACT The incidental take of golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) as a result of wind energy development requires some form of compensatory mitigation. Although several options have been proposed, only one has been formerly accepted and implemented, and the lack of options can limit the permit process for wind facilities. We developed a model to estimate numbers of golden eagles that die when struck by vehicles when eagles scavenge road kill to evaluate removal of road‐killed carcasses as an additional mitigation option. Our model estimates vehicle collision rates as a function of eagle densities, road traffic volume, and animal carcass abundance at the scale of a Wyoming, USA, county during fall‐winter, and quantifies the effects of different mitigation strategies, including estimates of uncertainty. We evaluated the plausibility of our model estimates by predicting mortality rates for each county in Wyoming and comparing overall state mortality to current estimates of mortality using derived estimates from expert judgment. We also developed a context‐dependent analysis of potential mitigation credits controlling for carcass number, traffic volume, and background carcass removals. We found that mitigation credit should be highest in areas with greatest number of carcasses. Collision mitigation is a potentially useful addition to the mitigation toolbox for wind energy development or other activities that need to offset predicted golden eagle mortality and satisfy incidental take permit requirements. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Wildlife Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Lonsdorf, Eric↗

DOE OSTI2014

Recover Act. Verification of Geothermal Tracer Methods in Highly Constrained Field Experiments

The prediction of the geothermal system efficiency is strong linked to the character of the flow system that connects injector and producer wells. If water flow develops channels or “short circuiting” between injection and extraction wells thermal sweep is poor and much of the reservoir is left untapped. The purpose of this project was to understand how channelized flow develops in fracture geothermal reservoirs and how it can be measured in the field. We explored two methods of assessing channelization: hydraulic connectivity tests and tracer tests. These methods were tested at a field site using two verification methods: ground penetrating radar (GPR) images of saline tracer and heat transfer measurements using distributed temperature sensing (DTS). The field site for these studies was the Altona Flat Fractured Rock Research Site located in northeastern New York State. Altona Flat Rock is an experimental site considered a geologic analog for some geothermal reservoirs given its low matrix porosity. Because soil overburden is thin, it provided unique access to saturated bedrock fractures and the ability image using GPR which does not effectively penetrate most soils. Five boreholes were drilled in a “five spot” pattern covering 100 m2 and hydraulically isolated in a single bedding plane fracture. This simple system allowed a complete characterization of the fracture. Nine small diameter boreholes were drilled from the surface to just above the fracture to allow the measurement of heat transfer between the fracture and the rock matrix. The focus of the hydraulic investigation was periodic hydraulic testing. In such tests, rather than pumping or injection in a well at a constant rate, flow is varied to produce an oscillating pressure signal. This pressure signal is sensed in other wells and the attenuation and phase lag between the source and receptor is an indication of hydraulic connection. We found that these tests were much more effective than constant pumping tests in identifying a poorly connected well. As a result, we were able to predict which well pairs would demonstrate channelized flow. The focus of the tracer investigation was multi-ionic tests. In multi-ionic tests several ionic tracers are injected simultaneously and the detected in a nearby pumping well. The time history of concentration, or breakthrough curve, will show a separation of the tracers. Anionic tracers travel with the water but cationic tracer undergo chemical exchange with cations on the surface of the rock. The degree of separation is indicative of the surface area exposed to the tracer. Consequently, flow channelization will tend to decrease the separation in the breakthrough. Estimation of specific surface area (the ration of fracture surface area to formation volume) is performed through matching the breakthrough curve with a transport model. We found that the tracer estimates of surface area were confirmed the prediction of channelized flow between well pairs produced by the periodic hydraulic tests. To confirm that the hydraulic and tracer tests were correctly predicting channelize flow, we imaged the flow field using surface GPR. Saline water was injected between the well pairs which produced a change in the amplitude and phase of the reflected radar signal. A map was produced of the migration of saline tracer from these tests which qualitatively confirmed the flow channelization predicted by the hydraulic and tracer tests. The resolution of the GPR was insufficient to quantitatively estimate swept surface area, however. Surface GPR is not applicable in typical geothermal fields because the penetration depths do not exceed 10’s of meters. Nevertheless, the method of using of phase to measure electrical conductivity and the assessment of antennae polarization represent a significant advancement in the field of surface GPR. The effect of flow character on fracture / rock thermal exchange was evaluated using heated water as a tracer. Water elevated 30 degrees C above the formation water was circulated between two wells pairs. One well pair had been identified in hydraulic and tracer testing as well connected and the other poorly connected. Temperature rise was measured in the adjacent rock matrix using coiled fiber optic cable interrogated for temperature using a DTS. This experimental design produced over 4000 temperature measurements every hour. We found that heat transfer between the fracture and the rock matrix was highly impacted by the character of the flow field. The strongly connected wells which had demonstrated flow channelization produced heat rise in a much more limited area than the more poorly connected wells. In addition, the heat increase followed the natural permeability of the fracture rather than the induced flow field. The primary findings of this work are (1) even in a single relatively planar fracture, the flow field can be highly heterogeneous and exhibit flow channeling, (2) channeling results from a combination of fracture permeability structure and the induced flow field, and (3) flow channeling leads to reduced heat transfer. Multi-ionic tracers effectively estimate relative surface area but an estimate of ion-exchange coefficients are necessary to provide an absolute measure of specific surface area. Periodic hydraulic tests also proved a relative indicator of connectivity but cannot prove an absolute measure of specific surface area.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

REV-INR: Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation for Uncertainty-Aware Volume Visualization

Applications of Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) have emerged as a promising deep learning approach for compactly representing large volumetric datasets. These models can act as surrogates for volume data, enabling efficient storage and on-demand reconstruction via model predictions. However, conventional deterministic INRs only provide value predictions without insights into the model’s prediction uncertainty or the impact of inherent noisiness in the data. This limitation can lead to unreliable data interpretation and visualization due to prediction inaccuracies in the reconstructed volume. Identifying erroneous results extracted from model-predicted data may be infeasible, as raw data may be unavailable due to its large size. To address this challenge, we introduce REV-INR, Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation, which learns to predict data values accurately along with the associated coordinate-level data uncertainty and model uncertainty using only a single forward pass of the trained REV-INR during inference. By comprehensively comparing and contrasting REV-INR with existing well-established deep uncertainty estimation methods, we show that REV-INR achieves the best volume reconstruction quality with robust data (aleatoric) and model (epistemic) uncertainty estimates using the fastest inference time. Consequently, we demonstrate that REV-INR facilitates assessment of the reliability and trustworthiness of the extracted isosurfaces and volume visualization results, enabling analyses to be solely driven by model-predicted data.

Saklani, Shanu [Indian Institute of Technology, Ka↗

NASA NTRS2011

Thickness of Proximal Ejecta from the Orientale Basin from Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) Data: Implications for Multi-Ring Basin Formation

Quantifying the ejecta distribution around large lunar basins is important to understanding the origin of basin rings, the volume of the transient cavity, the depth of sampling, and the nature of the basin formation processes. We have used newly obtained altimetry data of the Moon from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) instrument to estimate the thickness of ejecta in the region surrounding the Orientale impact basin, the youngest and best preserved large basin on the Moon. Our measurements yield ejecta thicknesses of approx.2900 m near the Cordillera Mountains, the topographic rim of Orientale, decaying to approx.1 km in thickness at a range of 215 km. These measurements imply a volume of ejecta in the region from the Cordillera ring to a radial range of one basin diameter of approx.2.9 x 10(exp 6)cu km and permit the derivation of an ejecta-thickness decay model, which can be compared with estimates for the volume of excavation and the size of the transient cavity. These data are consistent with the Outer Rook Mountains as the approximate location of the transient cavity s rim crest and suggest a volume of approx.4.8 x 10(exp 6)cu km for the total amount of basin ejecta exterior to this location.

Fassett, Caleb I.a↗

DOE OSTI2017

An error reduction algorithm to improve lidar turbulence estimates for wind energy

Abstract. Remote-sensing devices such as lidars are currently being investigated as alternatives to cup anemometers on meteorological towers for the measurement of wind speed and direction. Although lidars can measure mean wind speeds at heights spanning an entire turbine rotor disk and can be easily moved from one location to another, they measure different values of turbulence than an instrument on a tower. Current methods for improving lidar turbulence estimates include the use of analytical turbulence models and expensive scanning lidars. While these methods provide accurate results in a research setting, they cannot be easily applied to smaller, vertically profiling lidars in locations where high-resolution sonic anemometer data are not available. Thus, there is clearly a need for a turbulence error reduction model that is simpler and more easily applicable to lidars that are used in the wind energy industry. In this work, a new turbulence error reduction algorithm for lidars is described. The Lidar Turbulence Error Reduction Algorithm, L-TERRA, can be applied using only data from a stand-alone vertically profiling lidar and requires minimal training with meteorological tower data. The basis of L-TERRA is a series of physics-based corrections that are applied to the lidar data to mitigate errors from instrument noise, volume averaging, and variance contamination. These corrections are applied in conjunction with a trained machine-learning model to improve turbulence estimates from a vertically profiling WINDCUBE v2 lidar. The lessons learned from creating the L-TERRA model for a WINDCUBE v2 lidar can also be applied to other lidar devices. L-TERRA was tested on data from two sites in the Southern Plains region of the United States. The physics-based corrections in L-TERRA brought regression line slopes much closer to 1 at both sites and significantly reduced the sensitivity of lidar turbulence errors to atmospheric stability. The accuracy of machine-learning methods in L-TERRA was highly dependent on the input variables and training dataset used, suggesting that machine learning may not be the best technique for reducing lidar turbulence intensity (TI) error. Future work will include the use of a lidar simulator to better understand how different factors affect lidar turbulence error and to determine how these errors can be reduced using information from a stand-alone lidar.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

The local black hole mass function derived from the M{sub BH}–P and the M{sub BH}–n relations

We present a determination of the supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass function for early- and late-type galaxies in the nearby universe (z < 0.0057), established from a volume-limited sample consisting of a statistically complete collection of the brightest spiral galaxies in the southern hemisphere. The sample is defined by limiting luminosity (redshift-independent) distance, D {sub L} = 25.4 Mpc, and a limiting absolute B-band magnitude, M{sub B}=−19.12. These limits define a sample of 140 spiral, 30 elliptical (E), and 38 lenticular (S0) galaxies. We established the Sérsic index distribution for early-type (E/S0) galaxies in our sample. Davis et al. established the pitch angle distribution for their sample, which is identical to our late-type (spiral) galaxy sample. We then used the pitch angle and the Sérsic index distributions in order to estimate the SMBH mass function for our volume-limited sample. The observational simplicity of our approach relies on the empirical relation between the mass of the central SMBH and the Sérsic index for an early-type galaxy or the logarithmic spiral-arm pitch angle for a spiral galaxy. Our SMBH mass function agrees well at the high-mass end with previous values in the literature. At the low-mass end, although inconsistencies exist in previous works that still need to be resolved, our work is more in line with expectations based on modeling of black hole evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Investigation of ice cloud microphysical properties of DCSs using aircraft in situ measurements during MC3E over the ARM SGP site

In this study, six deep convective systems (DCSs) with a total of 5589 five-second samples and a range of temperatures from -41°C to 0°C during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) were selected to investigate the ice cloud microphysical properties of DCSs over the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The ice cloud measurements of the DCS cases were made by the University of North Dakota Citation II research aircraft, and the ice cloud properties were derived through the following processes. First, the instances of supercooled liquid water in the ice-dominated cloud layers of DCSs have been eliminated using multisensor detection, including the Rosemount Icing Detector, King and Cloud Droplet Probes, as well as 2DC and Cloud Imaging Probe images. Then the Nevzorov-measured ice water contents (IWCs) at maximum diameter D max < 4000 µm are used as the best estimation to determine a new mass-dimensional relationship. Finally, the newly derived mass-dimensional relationship (a = 0.00365, b = 2.1) has been applied to a full spectrum of particle size distributions (PSDs, 120–30,000 µm) constructed from both 2DC and High-Volume Precipitation Spectrometer measurements to calculate the best-estimated IWCs of DCSs during MC3E. The averages of the total number concentrations (N t ), median mass diameter (D m ), maximum diameter (D max ), and IWC from six selected cases are 0.035 cm -3 , 1666 µm, 8841 µm, and 0.45 g m -3 , respectively. The gamma-type-size distributions are then generated matching the observed PSDs (120–30,000 µm), and the fitted gamma parameters are compared with the observed PSDs through multimoment assessments including first moment (D m ), third moment (IWC), and sixth moment (equivalent radar reflectivity, Z e ). Lastly, for application of observed PSDs to the remote sensing community, a series of empirical relationships between fitted parameters and Z e values has been derived, and the bullet rosette ice crystal backscattering relationship has been suggested for ground-based remote sensing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accessing scattering amplitudes using quantum computers

Future quantum computers may serve as a tool to access non-perturbative real-time correlation functions. In this talk, we discuss the prospects of using these to study Compton scattering for arbitrary kinematics. The restriction to a finite-volume spacetime, unavoidable in foreseeable quantum-computer simulations, must be taken into account in the formalism for extracting scattering observables. One approach is to work with a non-zero iϵ-prescription in the Fourier transform to definite momentum and then to estimate an ordered double limit, in which the spacetime volume is sent to infinity before ϵ is sent to 0. For the amplitudes and parameters considered here, we find that significant volume effects arise, making the required limit very challenging. We present a practical solution to this challenge that may allow for future determinations of deeply virtual Compton scattering amplitudes, as well as many other reactions that are presently outside the scope of standard lattice QCD calculations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Combined Mini-Cylex & Disk Acceleration Tests in Type K Copper

In this work, we combined the miniature cylinder expansion test (Mini-Cylex), with the Disk Acceleration Test (DAX) using Type K copper, Picatinny Liquid Explosive, and photonic Doppler velocimetry. We estimated the CJ state using plate reverberation methods at the test cap. We extracted velocities at 2, 7, and 10 volume expansions to fit Jones-Wilkins-Lee Equation of State and estimated Gurney velocity at the tube wall. The test also provides an additional method to estimate reaction products Hugoniot through knowledge of the copper test cap. Our experiments and simulations are within expected uncertainty. Lastly, the test and the analysis effectively reduce costs while keeping or increasing fidelity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Analysis of Fuel Cell Markets in Japan and the US: Experience Curve Development and Cost Reduction Disaggregation

Fuel cells are both a longstanding and emerging technology for stationary and transportation applications, and their future use will likely be critical for the deep decarbonization of global energy systems. As we look into future applications, a key challenge for policy-makers and technology market forecasters who seek to track and/or accelerate their market adoption is the ability to forecast market costs of the fuel cells as technology innovations are incorporated into market products. Specifically, there is a need to estimate technology learning rates, which are rates of cost reduction versus production volume. Unfortunately, no literature exists for forecasting future learning rates for fuel cells. In this paper, we look retrospectively to estimate learning rates for two fuel cell deployment programs: (1) the micro-combined heat and power (CHP) program in Japan, and (2) the Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) in California. These two examples have a relatively broad set of historical market data and thus provide an informative and international comparison of distinct fuel cell technologies and government deployment programs. We develop a generalized procedure for disaggregating experience-curve cost-reductions in order to disaggregate the Japanese fuel cell micro-CHP market into its constituent components, and we derive and present a range of learning rates that may explain observed market trends. Finally, we explore the differences in the technology development ecosystem and market conditions that may have contributed to the observed differences in cost reduction and draw policy observations for the market adoption of future fuel cell technologies. The scientific and policy contributions of this paper are the first comparative experience curve analysis of past fuel cell technologies in two distinct markets, and the first quantitative comparison of a detailed cost model of fuel cell systems with actual market data. The resulting approach is applicable to analyzing other fuel cell markets and other energy-related technologies, and highlights the data needed for cost modeling and quantitative assessment of key cost reduction components.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1990

Carbon dioxide emissions from Deccan volcanism and a K/T boundary greenhouse effect

A greenhouse warming caused by increased emissions of carbon dioxide from the Deccan Traps volcanism has been suggested as the cause of the terminal Cretaceous extinctions on land and in the sea. Total eruptive and noneruptive CO2 output by the Deccan eruptions (from 6 to 20 x 10 to the 16th moles) over a period of several hundred thousand years is estimated based on best estimates of the CO2 weight fraction of the original basalts and basaltic melts, the fraction of CO2 degassed, and the volume of the Deccan Traps eruptions. Results of a model designed to estimate the effects of increased CO2 on climate and ocean chemistry suggest that increases in atmospheric pCO2 due to Deccan Traps CO2 emissions would have been less than 75 ppm, leading to a predicted global warming of less than 1 C over several hundred thousand years. It is concluded that the direct climate effects of CO2 emissions from the Deccan eruptions would have been too weak to be an important factor in the end-Cretaceous mass extinctions.

Caldeira, Ken↗

NASA NTRS2004

Estimation of Length-Scales in Soils by MRI

Soil can be best described as an unconsolidated granular media that forms porous structure. The present macroscopic theory of water transport in porous media rests upon the continuum hypothesis that the physical properties of porous media can be associated with continuous, twice-differentiable field variables whose spatial domain is a set of centroids of Representative Elementary Volume (REV) elements. MRI is an ideal technique to estimate various length-scales in porous media. A 0.267 T permanent magnet at NASA GRC was used for this study. A 2D or 3D spatially-resolved porosity distribution were obtained from the NMR signal strength from each voxel and the spin-lattice relaxation time. A classical spin-warp imaging with Multiple Spin Echos (MSE) was used to evaluate proton density in each voxel. Initial resolution of 256 x 256 was subsequently reduced by averaging neighboring voxels and the porosity convergence was observed. A number of engineered "space candidate" soils such as Isolite(trademark), Zeoponics(trademark), Turface(trademark), and Profile(trademark) were used. Glass beads in the size range between 50 microns to 2 mm were used as well. Initial results with saturated porous samples have shown a good estimate of the average porosity consistent with the gravimetric porosity measurement results. For Profile(trademark) samples with particle sizes ranging between 0.25 to 1 mm and characteristic interparticle pore size of 100 microns the characteristic Darcy scale was estimated to be about delta(sub REV) = 10 mm. Glass beads porosity show clear convergence toward a definite REV which stays constant throughout homogeneous sample. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

N E Daidzic↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimates of lithium mass yields from produced water sourced from the Devonian-aged Marcellus Shale

Abstract Decarbonatization initiatives have rapidly increased the demand for lithium. This study uses public waste compliance reports and Monte Carlo approaches to estimate total lithium mass yields from produced water (PW) sourced from the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania (PA). Statewide, Marcellus Shale PW has substantial extractable lithium, however, concentrations, production volumes and extraction efficiencies vary between the northeast and southwest operating zones. Annual estimates suggest statewide lithium mass yields of approximately 1160 (95% CI 1140–1180) metric tons (mt) per year. Production decline curve analysis on PW volumes reveal cumulative volumetric disparities between the northeast (median = 2.89 X 10 7 L/10-year) and southwest (median = 5.56 × 10 7 L/10-year) regions of the state, influencing lithium yield estimates of individual wells in southwest [2.90 (95% CI 2.80–2.99) mt/10-year] and northeast [1.96 (CI 1.86–2.07) mt/10-year] PA. Moreover, Mg/Li mass ratios vary regionally, where NE PA are low Mg/Li fluids, having a median Mg/Li mass ratio of 5.39 (IQR, 2.66–7.26) and SW PA PW is higher with a median Mg/Li mass ratio of 17.8 (IQR, 14.3–20.7). These estimates indicate substantial lithium yields from Marcellus PW, though regional variability in chemistry and production may impact recovery efficiencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Reactors Spent Fuel & Waste Science and Technology Program

Based on the higher interest in Advanced Reactor (AR) deployment (e.g., ARDP ) for potential new fuel cycles, the Spent Fuel & Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Program has begun to evaluate the possible implications of long-term management and final disposition of potential Advance Reactor spent nuclear fuels (SNF) that would be generated in potential advanced reactors. Safely managing and dispositioning the potential future AR SNF, and any other associated radioactive wastes, is the primary focus of this initial preliminary assessment of those. This paper summarizes three primary tasks the Spent Fuel & Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Program is executing (or collaborating on) related to the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle (BENFC) for potential future advanced reactors: 1. Advanced Reactors Spent Fuel and Waste Streams: Strategies for the BENFC This set of activities define a high-level strategy for how to systematically approach, identify, and close research and development (R&D) gaps/potential issues associated with long-term management and final disposition of AR SNF and other possible AR waste streams. This task involves summarizing advanced reactor concepts, their likely SNF and other waste forms, and identifying previous experience with similar materials, for example from DOE-managed SNF, with closely related characteristics to the potential future AR SNF. Technical R&D gaps between the breadth of detailed understanding for safe storage, transportation and disposal of the existing light water reactor SNF fuel cycle (e.g., see NASEM, 2022) and potential future fuel cycles based on advanced reactors would then be identified. 2. Characterization and Packaging Options of Advanced Reactor SNF These activities evaluate characteristics and packaging options for advanced reactor spent fuel forms. The fuel forms are categorized into three types: (1) tri-structural isotropic (TRISO), (2) metallic, and (3) fuel salt. Emphasis is given to TRISO and metallic SNF and additional waste streams from such AR as driven by the near-term anticipated operation of the Xe-100 and the Natrium reactors as advanced-reactor demonstrations1. Preliminary information for the spent-fuel salt discharged from molten-salt reactors (MSRs) is examined to provide a baseline for future efforts. All calculations and assumptions in this work are based on publicly available information. The following characteristics are calculated or estimated for use in the preliminary assessments: SNF volume and mass, radiation/activity levels through time, thermal conditions through time, potential radionuclide source terms, chemical interactions and evolutions, disposal inventories, and waste-form lifetime. Using those characteristics, calculations to determine the applicability of existing canister designs were performed. These evaluations included geometric (e.g., dimension, volume) and mass/weight considerations, known operational approaches and loading procedures, physical and chemical considerations/conditions for storage environments, as-loaded radiation, thermal, and criticality analyses to identify constraints for storage, transportation, and disposal. 3. Back-End Management of Advanced Reactors (BEMAR) The DOE NE-8 organization has defined an Integrated Project Team to evaluate the Back End Management of Advanced Reactors (BEMAR) (includes DOE staff from a range of organizations (e.g., NE-81, NE-82, OCED) and national laboratory technical staff within the DOE NE-81 and NE-82 programs). This BEMAR group works directly with advance reactors developers to assess for the DOE the technical feasibility of storage, transportation, and disposal of AR SNF based on the characteristics provided by the developers to DOE (much of which is proprietary). The BEMAR is also tasked to develop rough-order-of-magnitude cost estimates to compare the waste management system for individual advanced reactors to existing light-water reactor management practices. To accomplish this, the BEMAR group is implementing a Systems Engineering approach.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Estimates of Glacier Mass Loss and Contribution to Streamflow in the Wind River Range in Wyoming: Case Study

The Wind River Range is a continuous mountain range, approximately 160 km in length, in west-central Wyoming. The presence of glaciers results in meltwater contributions to streamflow during the late summer (July, August, and September: JAS) when snowmelt is decreasing; temperatures are high; precipitation is low; evaporation rates are high; and municipal, industrial, and irrigation water are at peak demands. Therefore, the quantification of glacier meltwater (e.g., volume and mass) contributions to late summer/early fall streamflow is important, given that this resource is dwindling owing to glacier recession. The current research expands upon previous research efforts and identifies two glaciated watersheds, one on the east slope (Bull Lake Creek) and one on the west slope (Green River) of the Wind River Range, in which unimpaired streamflow is available from 1966 to 2006. Glaciers were delineated within each watershed and area estimates (with error) were obtained for the years 1966, 1989, and 2006. Glacier volume (mass) loss (with error) was estimated by using empirically based volume-area scaling relationships. For 1966 to 2006, glacier mass contributions to JAS streamflow on the east slope were approximately 8%, whereas those on the west slope were approximately 2%. Furthermore, the volume-area scaling glacier mass estimates compared favorably with measured (stereo pair remote sensed data) estimates of glacier mass change for three glaciers (Teton, Middle Teton, and Teepe) in the nearby Teton Range and one glacier (Dinwoody) in the Wind River Range.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Effect of induction chemotherapy on estimated risk of radiation pneumonitis in bulky non–small cell lung cancer

Patients with bulky non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) may be at a high risk for radiation pneumonitis (RP) if treated with up-front concurrent chemoradiation. There is limited information about the effect of induction chemotherapy on the volume of normal lung subsequently irradiated. This study aims to estimate the reduction in risk of RP in patients with NSCLC after receiving induction chemotherapy. Between 2004 and 2009, 25 patients with Stage IV NSCLC were treated with chemotherapy alone (no surgery or radiation therapy [RT]) and had computed tomography (CT) scans before and after 2 cycles of chemotherapy. Simulated RT plans were created for the prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans so as to deliver 60 Gy to the thoracic disease in patients who had either a >20% volumetric increase or decrease in gross tumor volume (GTV) from chemotherapy. The prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans were analyzed to compare the percentage of lung volume receiving≥20 Gy (V20), mean lung dose (MLD), and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Eight patients (32%) had a GTV reduction >20%, 2 (8%) had GTV increase >20%, and 15 (60%) had stable GTV. In the 8 responders, there was an absolute median GTV decrease of 88.1 cc (7.3 to 351.6 cc) or a 48% (20% to 62%) relative reduction in tumor burden. One had >20% tumor progression during chemotherapy, yet had an improvement in dosimetric parameters postchemotherapy. Among these 9 patients, the median decrease in V20, MLD, and NTCP was 2.6% (p<0.01), 2.1 Gy (p<0.01), and 5.6% (p<0.01), respectively. Less than one-third of patients with NSCLC obtain >20% volumetric tumor reduction from chemotherapy alone. Even with that amount of volumetric reduction, the 5% reduced risk of RP was only modest and did not convert previously ineligible patients to safely receive definitive thoracic RT.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NASA NTRS2019

Determining the Transport of Magnetic Helicity and Free Energy in the Sun's Atmosphere

The most important factors determining solar coronal activity are believed to be the availability of magnetic free energy and the constraint of magnetic helicity conservation. Direct measurements of the helicity and magnetic free energy in the coronal volume are difficult, but their values may be estimated from measurements of the helicity and free energy transport rates through the photosphere. We examine these transport rates for a topologically open system such as the corona, in which the magnetic fields have a nonzero normal component at the boundaries, and derive a new formula for the helicity transport rate at the boundaries. In addition, we derive new expressions for helicity transport due to flux emergence/submergence versus photospheric horizontal motions. The key feature o four formulas is that they are manifestly gauge invariant. Our results are somewhat counterintuitive in that only the lamellar electric field produced by the surface potential transports helicity across boundaries, and the solenoidal electric field produced by a surface stream function does not contribute to the helicity transport. We discuss the physical interpretation of this result. Furthermore, we derive an expression for the free energy transport rate and show that a necessary condition for free energy transport across a boundary is the presence of a closed magnetic field at the surface, indicating that there are current systems within the volume. We discuss the implications of these results for using photospheric vector magnetic and velocity field measurements to derive the solar coronal helicity and magnetic free energy, which can then be used to constrain and drive models for coronal activity.

Schuck, Peter W.↗