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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Using Concurrent Cardiovascular Information to Augment Survival Time Data for Evaluating Orthostatic Tilt Test Performance

Head-up tilt (HUT) tests often are used in research to measure orthostatic intolerance (OI) (inability to appropriately control blood pressure while upright) in clinical populations and otherwise healthy individuals after interventions. Post-space flight orthostatic intolerance is a well-known phenomenon, and countermeasures to its development has been an active area of research at NASA. In the NASA HUT protocol, subjects lie horizontally on an automatic tilt table for baseline measurements before being raised to 80deg head-up tilt for a defined period of time or until signs or symptoms of presyncope ensues (light-headedness, nausea, dizziness, sweating, weakness or fainting). Multiple measures are collected to evaluate the cardiovascular system's ability to respond appropriately to the orthostatic challenge. However if the intended duration of the HUT is short, the ability to detect changes in OI due to an intervention or its prevention by a countermeasure may be limited by a small number of failures to permit comparisons based on survival time alone. Thus, the time-trajectory of the cardiovascular data becomes an important additional source of information. In particular, we will show how various measures of trajectory variability can effectively augment survival analysis for the assessment of OI in a joint model when high censoring rates are present.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗
NASA NTRS2021

The sensitivity of runoff generation to spatial snowpack uniformity in an alpine watershed: Green Lakes Valley, Niwot Ridge Long-Term Ecological Research station

Seasonal water storage in high-elevation alpine catchments are critical sources of water for mountainous regions like the western U.S. The spatial distribution of snow in these topographically complex catchments is primarily governed by orography, solar radiation, and wind redistribution. While the effect of solar shading is relatively consistent from year-to-year, the redistribution of snow due to wind is more variable–capable of producing snowpacks that have varying degrees of uniformity across these hydrologically-important catchments. A reasonable hypothesis is that a warmer climate will cause snowfall to become more dense (i.e. wetter and heavier), possibly leading to less wind redistribution and thus produce a more uniformly distributed snowpack across the landscape. In this study, we investigate the role of increasingly uniform spatial snowpack distributions on streamflow generation in the Green Lakes Valley Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research station, within the headwaters of the Boulder Creek watershed in Colorado. A set of idealized hydrologic simulation experiments driven by reconstructed snowpacks spanning 2001–2014 show that more a more uniform spatial snowpack distribution leads to an earlier melt-out of31 days on average and tends to produce less total streamflow, with maximum decreases as large as 7.5%. Isolating the role of snowpack heterogeneity from melt-season precipitation, we find that snowpack uniformity reduces total streamflow by as much as 13.2%. Reductions in streamflow are largely explained by greater expo-sure to solar radiation in the uniformly distributed case relative to a more heterogeneous snowpack, with this exposure driving shifts towards earlier snowmelt and changes in soil water storage. Overall, we find that the runoff efficiency from shallower snowpacks is more sensitive to the effects of uniformity than deeper snowpacks, which has potential implications for a warming climate where shallower snowpacks and enhanced sensitivities may be present.

Alpine catchment↗
NASA NTRS2022

Look-up Table Approach for Uncertainty Determination for Operational Vicarious Calibration of Earth Imaging Sensors

Understanding the uncertainty of a vicarious calibration is essential for any application to Earth imaging sensors. The Radiometric Calibration Network provides SI-traceable spectral top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance from a network of ground sites and uses a look-up table (LUT) approach for uncertainty determination. The uncertainty LUT was derived using Monte Carlo techniques applied to the relevant solar geometry, surface, and atmospheric variables. While surface reflectance is typically the dominant uncertainty source, atmospheric contributions do play an important role, depending upon the exact scenario and conditions. This approach allows knowledge of TOA reflectance uncertainty to within 0.5%.

Brian N. Wenny↗
NASA NTRS2022

Volcanic Stratospheric Injections up to 160 Tg(S) Yield a Eurasian Winter Warming Indistinguishable from Internal Variability

Early observational and modeling work suggested that low-latitude volcanic eruptions, comparable to the one of Pinatubo in 1991 or Krakatau in 1883, cause substantial surface warming over the northern continents at mid-latitudes in winter. The proposed mechanism consists of the formation of an anomalously strong Equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the stratosphere due to the presence of volcanic aerosols in the tropics, which are accompanied by an acceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex, which then shifts the Northern Annular Mode into a positive phase, resulting in warming surface temperatures over Eurasia. However, a large body of research in the past decade has shown that, for eruptions such as Pinatubo or Krakatau, no such warming is seen in simulations with more recent climate models which, in general, have much finer vertical and horizontal resolution than the early ones, and which have separated the forced response from the internal variability by using large ensembles of integrations. Since the proposed physical mechanism is sound, it is then possible that eruptions comparable to those of Pinatubo or Krakatau are simply too weak, but even larger ones might indeed be capable of causing Eurasian surface warming in winter. In this study, we explore this possibility using a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving climate model, forced with prescribed aerosols from the Easy Volcanic Aerosol protocol. We consider eruptions with stratospheric sulfur injections of 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, and 160 Tg(S). With 20-member ensembles, we find that with injections of 20 Tg(S) or more – roughly twice the amplitude of the Pinatubo and Krakatau eruptions – our model simulates a winter surface warming over Eurasia, which is statistically significant with a t test given our 20-member ensembles. However, the forced volcanic signal on Eurasian winter surface temperatures is very small, barely exceeding the 1σ range of internal variability for the 160 Tg(S) injection case, and much smaller for smaller eruptions. Most importantly, the number of eruptions needed to establish statistical significance is considerably larger than the number of eruptions known to have occurred in the past 2000 years.

Volcanic eruptions↗
NASA NTRS2021

On the Settling Depth of Meltwater Escaping From Beneath Antarctic Ice Shelves

Antarctic glacial meltwater is thought to play an important role in determining large-scale Southern Ocean climate trends, yet recent modeling efforts have proceeded without a good understanding of how its vertical distribution in the water column is set. To rectify this, here we conduct new large-eddy simulations of the ascent of a buoyant meltwater plume after its escape from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf. We find that the meltwater’s settling depth is primarily a function of the buoyancy forcing per unit width of the source and the ambient stratification, consistent with the classical theory of turbulent buoyant plumes and in contrast to previous work that suggested an important role for centrifugal instability. Our results further highlight the significant role played by localized variability in stratification; this helps explain observed interannual variability in the vertical meltwater distribution near Pine Island Glacier. Because of the vast heterogeneity in mass loss rates and ambient conditions at different Antarctic ice shelves, a dynamic parameterization of meltwater settling depth may be crucial for accurately simulating high-latitude climate in a warming world; we discuss how this may be developed following this work, and where the remaining challenges lie.

Antarctic glacial meltwater↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulations of Cryogenic Line Chilldown with Advanced Sub-Grid Wall Boiling Models

A meso-scale model developed at MIT [2][11] for boiling processes in water was adapted for cryogens and demonstrated for chilldown of propellant transfer lines in both liquid nitrogen and hydrogen. The sub-grid boiling model accurately captures the contributions to heat transfer from the generation of bubble nuclei, growth, and interaction of the bubbles in the microlayer as well as quenching of the boiling surface following bubble departure. It was adapted for cryogenic fluids using thermodynamic scaling concepts taking into account non-dimensional pressures and temperatures that are scaled by the corresponding critical values for the fluid. The boiling model was demonstrated for line chilldown in liquid nitrogen (Darr et al. [6]). The predicted wall temperature at which quenching occurs was close to the test data while the slope of the temperature curve after quenching is initiated, showing a steeper variation than the test data. Simulations were also performed for liquid hydrogen by simulating experiments of Hartwig et al. [7]. Chilldown times in liquid hydrogen are much more rapid due to higher heat transfer in the film boiling regime and accounting for the higher turbulence levels were found to be important. Furthermore, at the much lower fluid temperatures in liquid hydrogen flows, accounting for the variable thermal properties of the solid material is critical and has a dramatic impact on the quench times. The need for additional studies to better understand the evolution of the quench front in liquid hydrogen was noted.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulations of Cryogenic Line Chilldown with Advanced Sub-Grid Wall Boiling Models

A meso-scale model developed at MIT [2][11] for boiling processes in water was adapted for cryogens and demonstrated for chilldown of propellant transfer lines in both liquid nitrogen and hydrogen. The sub-grid boiling model accurately captures the contributions to heat transfer from the generation of bubble nuclei, growth, and interaction of the bubbles in the microlayer as well as quenching of the boiling surface following bubble departure. It was adapted for cryogenic fluids using thermodynamic scaling concepts taking into account non-dimensional pressures and temperatures that are scaled by the corresponding critical values for the fluid. The boiling model was demonstrated for line chilldown in liquid nitrogen (Darr et al. [6]). The predicted wall temperature at which quenching occurs was close to the test data while the slope of the temperature curve after quenching is initiated, showing a steeper variation than the test data. Simulations were also performed for liquid hydrogen by simulating experiments of Hartwig et al. [7]. Chilldown times in liquid hydrogen are much more rapid due to higher heat transfer in the film boiling regime and accounting for the higher turbulence levels were found to be important. Furthermore, at the much lower fluid temperatures in liquid hydrogen flows, accounting for the variable thermal properties of the solid material is critical and has a dramatic impact on the quench times. The need for additional studies to better understand the evolution of the quench front in liquid hydrogen was noted.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗
NASA NTRS1995

Ultraviolet eclipse observations of an accretion disk wind

We present eclipse time series of ultraviolet CIV 1549A and HeII profiles in the spectrum of the nova-like variable UX UMa, obtained using the Goddard High Resolution Spectrometer (GHRS) on board the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). These data provide important new insights into the origin of these mainly wind-formed lines. Specifically, they show that the shallow line eclipses first discovered in International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) observations are due to the occultation of superposed narrow absorption features and provide the first clear evidence that the outflows in high-state cataclysmic variables (CV) are rooted in the inner accretion disk.

Drew, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future

Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

Mankin, Justin S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

On the Behavior of Phosphorus During the Aqueous Alteration of CM2 Carbonaceous Chondrites

During the earliest period of solar system formation, water played an important role in the evolution of primitive dust, both after accretion of planetesimals and possible before accretion within the protoplanetary disk. Many chondrites show evidence of variable degrees of aqueous alteration, the CM2 chondrites being among the most studied [1]. This group of chondrites is characterized by mineral assemblages of both primary and secondary alteration phases. Hence, these meteorites retain a particularly important record of the reactions that occurred between primary high temperature nebular phases and water. Studies of these chondrites can provide information on the conditions and environments of aqueous alteration and the mobility of elements during alteration. This latter question is at the core of a debate concerning the location of aqueous alteration, i.e. whether alteration occurred predominantly within a closed system after accretion (parent body alteration) or whether some degree of alteration occurred within the solar nebula or on ephemeral protoplanetary bodies prior to accretion. At the core of the parent body alteration model is the hypothesis that elemental exchange between different components, principally chondrules and matrix, must have occurred. chondrules and matrix, must have occurred. In this study, we focus on the behavior of the minor element, phosphorus. This study was stimulated by observations of the behavior of P during the earliest stages of alteration in glassy mesostasis in type II chondrules in CR chondrites and extends the preliminary observations of on Y791198 to other CM chondrites.

Brearley, Adrian J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Interannual Variability of Dust and Ice in the Mars Atmosphere: Comparison of MRO Mars Climate Sounder Retrievals with MGS-TES Limb Sounding Retrievals

Dust and ice play important roles in Martian atmospheric dynamics on all time scales. Dust loading in particular exerts an important control on atmospheric temperatures and thereby on the strength of the atmospheric circulation in any given year. We present the first comparisons of MGS-TES aerosol opacity profiles with MRO-MCS aerosol opacity profiles. While the differences in vertical resolution are significant (a factor of 2), we find good agreement at particular seasons between nightside zonal average dust opacity profiles from the two instruments. Derived water ice opacities are likewise similar but show greater variability.

Mars Climate Sounder (MCS)↗
NASA NTRS1991

Precise automatic differential stellar photometry

The factors limiting the precision of differential stellar photometry are reviewed. Errors due to variable atmospheric extinction can be reduced to below 0.001 mag at good sites by utilizing the speed of robotic telescopes. Existing photometric systems produce aliasing errors, which are several millimagnitudes in general but may be reduced to about a millimagnitude in special circumstances. Conventional differential photometry neglects several other important effects, which are discussed in detail. If all of these are properly handled, it appears possible to do differential photometry of variable stars with an overall precision of 0.001 mag with ground based robotic telescopes.

Young, Andrew T.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Interannual Variability and Trends of CH4, CO and OH Using the Computationally-Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOH) Module

Methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). Its 100-year global warming potential (GWP) is 34 times larger than that for carbon dioxide. The 100-year integrated GWPof CH4 is sensitive to changes in hydroxyl radical (OH) levels.Oxidation of CH4 and carbon monoxide (CO) by OH is the main loss process, thus affecting the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and contributing to the global ozone background. Limitations of using archived, monthly OH fields for studies of methane's and COs evolution are that feedbacks of the CH4-CO-OH system on methane, CO and OH are not captured. In this study, we employ the computationally Efficient CH4-CO-OH (ECCOH) module (Elshorbany et al., 2015) to investigate the nonlinear feedbacks of the CH4-CO-OH system on the interannual variability and trends of the CH4, CO, OH system.

Methane↗
NASA NTRS1987

Physical mechanisms of heat, momentum and turbulence fluxes

In a qualitative way, the physical mechanisms which generate fluxes of heat, momentum, and turbulence in the atmosphere are discussed. This material is presented to acquaint people with the Earth science aspects of turbulence as important processes in the atmosphere. To attempt to describe turbulent fluxes of heat, momentum, and moisture in precise mathematical detail becomes an intractable problem. It is burdened by an eighth order set of equations involving more variables than equations. It is a closure problem which requires complicated assumptions that are not necessarily always satisfied, variable boundary conditions, and sparse observational data. Therefore, we must approach the problem in a simplified manner to obtain any kind of solution involving the variables of shear, stress, and heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes. There are other problems, of course, in which the inclusion of the planetary boundary layer is extremely important. Air pollution studies, air-sea exchanges, mesoscale models, and so on, must account for the planetary layer in very specific terms. Some of the physical mechanisms that are involved in generating fluxes are described.

Theon, John S.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Spectroscopic measurements of element abundances in the solar corona: Variations on the FIP theme

Solar wind and solar energetic particle (SEP) data yield systematic differences between elemental abundances in the corona and in the photosphere related to the first ionization potential (FIP) of the elements: low-FIP elements are preferentially enhanced relative to high-FIP elements by about a factor of four. Spectroscopic studies of the inner corona show that such a pattern may apply on average but not in detail for coronal loops: substantial abundance differences occur between different types of coronal structures, and variations have been found from flare to flare, from one active region to another, and over time in the same region; further, in some flares, anomalies such as enhanced Ne:O ratios, distinctly at odds with the FIP pattern, show that a competing element selection mechanism sometimes operates. Details of the observed abundance variability -- such as the magnitude of the variations, the relevant temporal and spatial scales, and correlations with other properties of the given coronal structure -- may give important clues to the processes which supply and heat the corona, or they may reflect the changing physical conditions or locations where those processes take place. However, many such details remain to be established definitively. At present, abundance variability is primarily a major complication to data analysis and interpretation. However, once it is better understood, it may provide a new diagnostic tool for probing the lower layers of the solar atmosphere.

Saba, J. L. R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluating a Priori Ozone Profile Information Used in TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution) Tropospheric Ozone Retrievals

A primary objective for TOLNet is the evaluation and validation of space-based tropospheric O3 retrievals from future systems such as the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) satellite. This study is designed to evaluate the tropopause-based O3 climatology (TB-Clim) dataset which will be used as the a priori profile information in TEMPO O3 retrievals. This study also evaluates model simulated O3 profiles, which could potentially serve as a priori O3 profile information in TEMPO retrievals, from near-real-time (NRT) data assimilation model products (NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Forward Processing (FP) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2)) and full chemical transport model (CTM), GEOS-Chem, simulations. The TB-Clim dataset and model products are evaluated with surface (0-2 km) and tropospheric (0-10 km) TOLNet observations to demonstrate the accuracy of the suggested a priori dataset and information which could potentially be used in TEMPO O3 algorithms. This study also presents the impact of individual a priori profile sources on the accuracy of theoretical TEMPO O3 retrievals in the troposphere and at the surface. Preliminary results indicate that while the TB-Clim climatological dataset can replicate seasonally-averaged tropospheric O3 profiles observed by TOLNet, model-simulated profiles from a full CTM (GEOS-Chem is used as a proxy for CTM O3 predictions) resulted in more accurate tropospheric and surface-level O3 retrievals from TEMPO when compared to hourly (diurnal cycle evaluation) and daily-averaged (daily variability evaluation) TOLNet observations. Furthermore, it was determined that when large daily-averaged surface O3 mixing ratios are observed (65 ppb), which are important for air quality purposes, TEMPO retrieval values at the surface display higher correlations and less bias when applying CTM a priori profile information compared to all other data products. The primary reason for this is that CTM predictions better capture the spatio-temporal variability of the vertical profiles of observed tropospheric O3 compared to the TB-Clim dataset and other NRT data assimilation models evaluated during this study.

Pollution↗
NASA NTRS1987

Lava fountain heights at Pu'u 'O'o, Kilauea, Hawaii - Indicators of amount and variations of exsolved magma volatiles

Factors most important in determining fountain height in Hawaiian-type basaltic eruptions were assessed on the basis of theoretical calculations and observations at Pu'u 'O'o vent, east rift zone of Kilauea, Hawaii. It is shown that fountain height is very sensitive to changes in exsolved gas content (and, thus, can be used to estimate variability in exsolved gas content) and relatively insensitive to large variations in volume flux. Volume flux was found to be the most important parameter determining the equilibrium vent diameter. The results of calculations also indicate that there was a general increase in magma gas content over the first 20 episodes of the Pu'u 'O'o eruption and that gas depletion took place in the conduit beneath the vent during repose periods.

Head, James W., III↗
NASA NTRS2001

Forced and Free Intra-Seasonal Variability Over the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by 10 AGCMs

This study examines intra-seasonal (20-70 day) variability in the South Asian monsoon region during 1997/98 in ensembles of 10 simulations with 10 different atmospheric general circulation models. The 10 ensemble members for each model are forced with the same observed weekly sea surface temperature (SST) but differ from each other in that they are started from different initial atmospheric conditions. The results show considerable differences between the models in the simulated 20-70 day variability, ranging from much weaker to much stronger than the observed. A key result is that the models do produce, to varying degrees, a response to the imposed weekly SST. The forced variability tends to be largest in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans where, for some models, it accounts for more than 1/4 of the 20-70 day intra-seasonal variability in the upper level velocity potential during these two years. A case study of a strong observed MJO (intraseasonal oscillation) event shows that the models produce an ensemble mean eastward propagating signal in the tropical precipitation field over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, similar to that found in the observations. The associated forced 200 mb velocity potential anomalies are strongly phase locked with the precipitation anomalies, propagating slowly to the east (about 5 m/s) with a local zonal wave number two pattern that is generally consistent with the developing observed MJO. The simulated and observed events are, however, approximately in quadrature, with the simulated response 2 leading by 5-10 days. The phase lag occurs because, in the observations, the positive SST anomalies develop upstream of the main convective center in the subsidence region of the MJO, while in the simulations, the forced component is in phase with the SST. For all the models examined here, the intraseasonal variability is dominated by the free (intra-ensemble) component. The results of our case study show that the free variability has a predominately zonal wave number one pattern, and has propagation speeds (10 - 15 m/s) that are more typical of observed MJO behavior away from the convectively active regions. The free variability appears to be synchronized with the forced response, at least, during the strong event examined here. The results of this study support the idea that coupling with SSTs plays an important, though probably not dominant, role in the MJO. The magnitude of the atmospheric response to the SST appears to be in the range of 15% - 30% of the 20-70 day variability over much of the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The results also highlight the need to use caution when interpreting atmospheric model simulations in which the prescribed SST resolve MJO time scales.

Wu, Man Li C.↗