Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variability prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 901 records · Page 50

Elliptical accretion disks in active galactic nuclei

We present a calculation of the profiles of emission lines originating in a relativistic, eccentric disk, and show examples of the resulting model profiles. Our calculations are motivated by the fact that in about one-quarter of the double-peaked emission lines observed in radio-loud active galactic nuclei (and in the mildly active nucleus of NGC 1097), the red peak is stronger than the blue peak, which is contrary to the prediction of relativistic, circular disk models. Using the eccentric disk model we fit some of the observed profiles that cannot be fitted with a circular disk model. We propose two possible scenarios for the formation of an eccentric disk in an active galactic nucleus: (a) tidal perturbation of the disk around a supermassive black hole by a smaller binary companion, and (b) formation of an elliptical disk from the debris resulting from the tidal disruption of a star by the central black hole. In the former case we show that the eccentricity can be long-lived because of the presence of the binary companion. In the latter case, although the inner parts of the disk may circularize quickly, we estimate that the outer parts will maintain their eccentricity for times much longer than the local viscous time. We suggest that it may be possible to detect profile variability on much shorter timescales than those ranging from a decade to several centuries by comparing the evolution of the line profile with detailed model predictions. We argue that line-profile variability may also be the most promising discriminant among competing models for the origin of asymmetric, double-peaked emission lines.

Eracleous, Michael↗

Statistical prediction of dynamic distortion of inlet flow using minimum dynamic measurement. An application to the Melick statistical method and inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction without RMS measurements

The Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is outlined. A hypothetic vortex model is used as the basis for the mathematical formulations. The main variables are identified by matching the theoretical total pressure rms ratio with the measured total pressure rms ratio. Data comparisons, using the HiMAT inlet test data set, indicate satisfactory prediction of the dynamic peak distortion for cases with boundary layer control device vortex generators. A method for the dynamic probe selection was developed. Validity of the probe selection criteria is demonstrated by comparing the reduced-probe predictions with the 40-probe predictions. It is indicated that the the number of dynamic probes can be reduced to as few as two and still retain good accuracy.

Schweikhard, W. G.↗

Models of thermal/chemical boundary layer convection: Potential application to Venus

The upper boundary layer of Venus is comprised of at least two distinct chemical components, mantle and crust. Fluid dynamical models of convection within Venus' mantle were primarily of the thermal boundary layer type. Models assessing the ability of convective mantle flows to deform the crust were undertaken, but models exploring the effects of a variable thickness crust on mantle convection were largely lacking. A Venusian crust of variable thickness could couple back into, and alter, the mantle flow patterns that helped create it, leading to deformation mechanisms not predicted by purely thermal boundary layer convection models. This possibility is explored through a finite element model of thermal/chemical boundary layer convection. Model results suggest that a crust of variable thickness can serve as a mantle flow driver by perturbing lateral temperature gradients in the upper mantle. Resulting mantle flow is driven by the combination of free convective and nonuniform crustal distribution. This combination can lead to a flow instability manifest in the occurrence of episodic mantle lithosphere subduction initiated at the periphery of a crustal plateau. The ability of a light, near surface, chemical layer to potentially alter mantle flow patterns suggest that mantle convection and the creation and/or deformation of such a chemical layer may be highly nonseparable problems on time scales of 10(exp 8) years.

Lenardic, A.↗

Coherent Eigenmodes in Homogeneous MHD Turbulence

The statistical mechanics of Fourier models of ideal, homogeneous, incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence is discussed, along with their relevance for dissipative magnetofluids. Although statistical theory predicts that Fourier coefficients of fluid velocity and magnetic field are zero-mean random variables, numerical simulations clearly show that certain coefficients have a non-zero mean value that can be very large compared to the associated standard deviation, i.e., we have coherent structure. We use eigenanalysis of the modal covariance matrices in the probability density function to explain this phenomena in terms of `broken ergodicity', which is defined to occur when dynamical behavior does not match ensemble predictions on very long time-scales. We provide examples from 2-D and 3-D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of homogeneous turbulence, and show new results from long-time simulations of MHD turbulence with and without a mean magnetic field

Shebalin, John V.↗

Comparisons of rational engineering correlations of thermophoretically-augmented particle mass transfer with STAN5-predictions for developing boundary layers

Modification of the code STAN5 to properly include thermophoretic mass transport, and examination of selected test cases developing boundary layers which include variable properties, viscous dissipation, transition to turbulence and transpiration cooling. Under conditions representative of current and projected GT operation, local application of St(M)/St(M),o correlations evidently provides accurate and economical engineering design predictions, especially for suspended particles characterized by Schmidt numbers outside of the heavy vapor range.

Gokoglu, S. A.↗

Comparisons of rational engineering correlations of thermophoretically-augmented particle mass transfer with STAN5-predictions for developing boundary layers

Modification of the code STAN5 to properly include thermophoretic mass transport, and examination of selected test cases developing boundary layers which include variable properties, viscous dissipation, transition to turbulence and transpiration cooling. Under conditions representative of current and projected GT operation, local application of St(M)/St(M),o correlations evidently provides accurate and economical engineering design predictions, especially for suspended particles characterized by Schmidt numbers outside of the heavy vapor range.

Gokoglu, S. A.↗

Cutting out the Middleman: Calibrating and Validating a Dynamic Vegetation Model (ED2-PROSPECT5) Using Remotely Sensed Surface Reflectance

Canopy radiative transfer is the primary mechanism by which models relate vegetation composition and state to the surface energy balance, which is important to light- and temperature-sensitive plant processes as well as understanding land–atmosphere feedbacks. In addition, certain parameters (e.g., specific leaf area, SLA) that have an outsized influence on vegetation model behavior can be constrained by observations of shortwave reflectance, thus reducing model predictive uncertainty. Importantly, calibrating against radiative transfer outputs allows models to directly use remote sensing reflectance products without relying on highly derived products (such as MODIS leaf area index) whose assumptions may be incompatible with the target vegetation model and whose uncertainties are usually not well quantified. Here, we created the EDR model by coupling the two-stream representation of canopy radiative transfer in the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2) with a leaf radiative transfer model (PROSPECT-5) and a simple soil reflectance model to predict full-range, high-spectral-resolution surface reflectance that is dependent on the underlying ED2 model state. We then calibrated this model against estimates of hemispherical reflectance (corrected for directional effects) from the NASA Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and survey data from 54 temperate forest plots in the northeastern United States. The calibration significantly reduced uncertainty in model parameters related to leaf biochemistry and morphology and canopy structure for five plant functional types. Using a single common set of parameters across all sites, the calibrated model was able to accurately reproduce surface reflectance for sites with highly varied forest composition and structure. However, the calibrated model's predictions of leaf area index (LAI) were less robust, capturing only 46 % of the variability in the observations. Comparing the ED2 radiative transfer model with another two-stream soil–leaf–canopy radiative transfer model commonly used in remote sensing studies (PRO4SAIL) illustrated structural errors in the ED2 representation of direct radiation backscatter that resulted in systematic underestimation of reflectance. In addition, we also highlight that, to directly compare with a two-stream radiative transfer model like EDR, we had to perform an additional processing step to convert the directional reflectance estimates of AVIRIS to hemispherical reflectance (also known as “albedo”). In future work, we recommend that vegetation models add the capability to predict directional reflectance, to allow them to more directly assimilate a wide range of airborne and satellite reflectance products. We ultimately conclude that despite these challenges, using dynamic vegetation models to predict surface reflectance is a promising avenue for model calibration and validation using remote sensing data.

Alexey N Shiklomanov↗

On the modelling of scalar and mass transport in combustor flows

Results are presented of a numerical study of swirling and nonswirling combustor flows with and without density variations. Constant-density arguments are used to justify closure assumptions invoked for the transport equations for turbulent momentum and scalar fluxes, which are written in terms of density-weighted variables. Comparisons are carried out with measurements obtained from three different axisymmetric model combustor experiments covering recirculating flow, swirling flow, and variable-density swirling flow inside the model combustors. Results show that the Reynolds stress/flux models do a credible job of predicting constant-density swirling and nonswirling combustor flows with passive scalar transport. However, their improvements over algebraic stress/flux models are marginal. The extension of the constant-density models to variable-density flow calculations shows that the models are equally valid for such flows.

Nikjooy, M.↗

The miniblazar in 3C 273

The compact core of 3C 273 has been studied for over two years using optical photometry and accurate polarimetry. A wealth of polarization behavior, including variable polarization, observed at a level of under 1 percent is described. The results indicate that 3C 273 harbors a weak continuum component having all the characteristic properties of blazars. It is predicted that other compact radio sources with low optical polarization will also be found to harbor miniblazars. The detection of variable polarization in 3C 273 strengthens the link between superluminal motion at radio wavelengths and blazar activity at optical wavelengths.

Impey, C. D.↗

Choked flow effects in the NSI driven pin puller

This paper presents an analysis for pyrotechnic combustion and pin motion in the NASA Standard Initiator (NSI) actuated pin puller. The conservation principles and constitutive relations for a multi-phase system are posed and reduced to a set of eight ordinary differential equations which are solved to predict the system performance. The model tracks the interactions of the unreacted, incompressible solid pyrotechnic, incompressible condensed phase combustion products, and gas phase combustion products. The model accounts for multiple pyrotechnic grains, variable burn surface area, and combustion product mass flow rates through an orifice located within the device. Pressure-time predictions compare favorably with experimental data. Results showing model sensitivity to changes in the cross-sectional area of the orifice are presented.

Gonthier, Keith A.↗

Maintenance cost study of rotary wing aircraft, phase 2

The Navy's maintenance and materials management data base was used in a study to determine the feasibility of predicting unscheduled maintenance costs for the dynamic systems of military rotary wing aircraft. The major operational and design variables were identified and the direct maintenance man hours per flight hour were obtained by step-wise multiple regression analysis. Five nonmilitary helicopter users were contacted to supply data on which variables were important factors in civil applications. These uses included offshore oil exploration and support, police and fire department rescue and enforcement, logging and heavy equipment movement, and U.S. Army military operations. The equations developed were highly effective in predicting unscheduled direct maintenance man hours per flying hours for military aircraft, but less effective for commercial or public service helicopters, probably because of the longer mission durations and the much higher utilization of civil users.

Source record↗

A Study of Nonthermal X-Ray and Radio Emission from the O Star 9 Sgr

The observed X-ray and highly variable nonthermal radio emission from OB stars has eluded explanation for more than 18 years. The most favorable model of X-ray production in these stars (shocks) predicts both nonthermal radio and X-ray emission. The nonthermal X-ray emission should occur above 2 keV and the variability of this X-ray component should also be comparable to the observed radio variability. To test this scenario, we proposed an ASC/VLA monitoring program to observe the OB star, 9 Sgr, a well known nonthermal, variable radio source and a strong X-ray source. We requested 625 ks ASCA observations with a temporal spacing of approximately 4 days which corresponds to the time required for a density disturbance to propagate to the 6 cm radio free-free photosphere. The X-ray observations were coordinated with 5 multi-wavelength VLA observations. These observations represent the first systematic attempt to investigate the relationship between the X-ray and radio emission in OB stars.

Waldron, Wayne L.↗

Do nonlinearities play a significant role in short term, beat-to-beat variability?

Numerous studies of short-term beat-to-beat variability in cardiovascular signals have not resolved the debate about the completeness of linear analysis techniques. This aim of this paper is to evaluate further the role of nonlinearities in short-term, beat-to-beat variability. We compared linear autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and nonlinear neural network (NN) models for predicting instantaneous heart rate (HR) and mean arterial blood pressure (BP) from past HR and BP. To evaluate these models, we used HR and BP time series from the MIMIC database. Experimental results indicate that NN-based nonlinearities do not play a significant role and suggest that ARMA linear analysis techniques provide adequate characterization of the system dynamics responsible for generating short-term, beat-to-beat variability.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences

Systematic applications of nonlinear dynamics to studies of the atmosphere and climate are reviewed for the period 1987-1990. Problems discussed include paleoclimatic applications, low-frequency atmospheric variability, and interannual variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. Emphasis is placed on applications of the successive bifurcation approach and the ergodic theory of dynamical systems to understanding and prediction of intraseasonal, interannual, and Quaternary climate changes.

Ghil, M.↗

Validation of structural analysis methods using the in-house liner cyclic rigs

Test conditions and variables to be considered in each of the test rigs and test configurations, and also used in the validation of the structural predictive theories and tools, include: thermal and mechanical load histories (simulating an engine mission cycle; different boundary conditions; specimens and components of different dimensions and geometries; different materials; various cooling schemes and cooling hole configurations; several advanced burner liner structural design concepts; and the simulation of hot streaks. Based on these test conditions and test variables, the test matrices for each rig and configurations can be established to verify the predictive tools over as wide a range of test conditions as possible using the simplest possible tests. A flow chart for the thermal/structural analysis of a burner liner and how the analysis relates to the tests is shown schematically. The chart shows that several nonlinear constitutive theories are to be evaluated.

Thompson, R. L.↗

Relativity time-delay experiments utilizing 'Mariner' spacecraft

Relativity predicts that the transit time of a signal propagated from the earth to a spacecraft and retransmitted back to earth ought to exhibit an additional, variable time delay. The present work describes some of the analytical techniques employed in experiments using Mariner spacecraft designed to test the accuracy of this prediction. Two types of data are analyzed in these relativity experiments; these include phase-coherent, two-way Doppler shift and round-trip, transit-time measurements. Results of Mariner 6 and 7 relativistic time-delay experiments are in agreement with Einstein's theory of general relativity with an uncertainty of 3%.

Esposito, P. B.↗

Boreal Winter Predictions with the GEOS-2 GCM: The Role of Boundary Forcing and Initial Conditions

Ensembles of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulations (1980-94) are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of the initial conditions. Both the forecasts and simulations are carried out with version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-2) GCM forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). While much of the focus is on the seasonal time scale (January- March) and the Pacific North American (PNA) region, we also present results for other regions, shorter time scales, and other known modes of variability in the northern hemisphere extratropics. Forecasts of indices of some of the key large-scale modes of variability show that there is considerable variability in skill between different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The eastern North Atlantic region has the poorest long lead forecast skill showing no skill beyond about 10 days. Skillful seasonal forecasts are primarily confined to the wave-like ENSO response emanating from the tropical Pacific. In the Northern Hemisphere, this is associated with the well-known Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. Memory of the initial conditions is the major factor leading to skillful extratropical forecasts of lead time less than one month, while SST forcing is the only factor at the seasonal time scale. SST forcing contributes to skillful forecasts at sub- seasonal time scales only over the PNA region. The GEOS-2 GCM produces average (1980-94) signal to noise ratios which are less than one everywhere in the extratropics, except for the subtropical Pacific where they approach 1.5. When confined to the ENSO years, the maximum signal to noise ratios occur in the PNA region where they exceed three. An assessment of the sampling distribution of the forecasts suggests the model's ENSO response is very likely too weak. These results show some sensitivity to the uncertainties in the estimates of the SST forcing fields. In the North Pacific region, the sensitivity to SST forcing manifests itself primarily as changes in the variability of the PNA response, underscoring the need for an ensemble approach to the seasonal prediction problem.

Chang, Yehui↗

Constraints on lithospheric structure from satellite potential field data: Africa and Asia. Analysis and interpretation of MAGSAT anomalies over North Africa

Crustal anomaly detection with MAGSAT data is frustrated by the inherent resolving power of the data and by contamination from the external and core fields. The quality of the data might be tested by modeling specific tectonic features which produce anomalies that fall within the proposed resolution and crustal amplitude capabilities of the MAGSAT fields. To test this hypothesis, the north African hotspots associated with Ahaggar, Tibestia and Darfur have been modeled as magnetic induction anomalies due solely to shallower depth to the Curie isotherm surface beneath these features. The MAGSAT data were reduced by subtracting the external and core fields to isolate the scalar and vertical component crustal signals. The predicted model magnetic signal arising from the surface topography of the uplift and the Curie isotherm surface was calculated at MAGSAT altitudes by the Fourier transform technique modified to allow for variable magnetization. In summary it is suggested that the region beneath Ahaggar is associated with a strong thermal anomaly and the predicted anomaly best fits the associated MAGSAT anomaly if the African plate is moving in a northeasterly direction.

Phillips, R. J.↗