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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Space-Time Reduced-Order Modeling for Uncertainty Quantification

This work focuses on the space-time reduced-order modeling (ROM) method for solving large-scale uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems with multiple random coefficients. In contrast with the traditional space ROM approach, which performs dimension reduction in the spatial dimension, the space-time ROM approach performs dimension reduction on both the spatial and temporal domains, and thus enables accurate approximate solutions at a low cost. We incorporate the space-time ROM strategy with various classical stochastic UQ propagation methods such as stochastic Galerkin and Monte Carlo. Numerical results demonstrate that our methodology has significant computational advantages compared to state-of-the-art ROM approaches. By testing the approximation errors, we show that there is no obvious loss of simulation accuracy for space-time ROM given its high computational efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solar data uncertainty impacts on MCMC methods for r-process nucleosynthesis

In recent work, we developed a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure to predict the ground state masses capable of forming the observed Solar r-process rare-earth abundance peak. By applying this method to nucleosynthesis calculations which make use of distinct astrophysical conditions and comparing our results to the latest precision mass measurements, we are able to shed light on the conditions/masses capable of producing a rare-earth peak which matches Solar data. Here we examine how our mass predictions change when using a few different sets of r-process Solar abundance residuals that have been reported in the literature. We explore how the differing error estimates of these Solar evaluations propagate through the Markov Chain Monte Carlo to our mass predictions. We find that Solar data which reports the rare-earth peak to have its highest abundance at mass number A = 162 can require distinctly different mass predictions from data with the peak centered at A = 164. Nevertheless, we find that two important general conclusions from past work, regarding the inconsistency of ‘cold’ astrophysical outflows with current mass measurements and the need for local stability at N = 104 in ‘hot’ scenarios, remain robust in the face of differing Solar data evaluations. Additionally, we show that the masses our procedure finds capable of producing a peak at A < 164 are not in line with the latest precision mass measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2005

Improvement of Raman lidar algorithm for quantifying aerosol extinction

Aerosols are particles of different composition and origin and influence the formation of clouds which are important in atmospheric radiative balance. At the present there is high uncertainty on the effect of aerosols on climate and this is mainly due to the fact that aerosol presence in the atmosphere can be highly variable in space and time. Monitoring of the aerosols in the atmosphere is necessary to better understanding many of these uncertainties. A lidar (an instrument that uses light to detect the extent of atmospheric aerosol loading) can be particularly useful to monitor aerosols in the atmosphere since it is capable to record the scattered intensity as a function of altitude from molecules and aerosols. One lidar method (the Raman lidar) makes use of the different wavelength changes that occur when light interacts with the varying chemistry and structure of atmospheric aerosols. One quantity that is indicative of aerosol presence is the aerosol extinction which quantifies the amount of attenuation (removal of photons), due to scattering, that light undergoes when propagating in the atmosphere. It can be directly measured with a Raman lidar using the wavelength dependence of the received signal. In order to calculate aerosol extinction from Raman scattering data it is necessary to evaluate the rate of change (derivative) of a Raman signal with respect to altitude. Since derivatives are defined for continuous functions, they cannot be performed directly on the experimental data which are not continuous. The most popular technique to find the functional behavior of experimental data is the least-square fit. This procedure allows finding a polynomial function which better approximate the experimental data. The typical approach in the lidar community is to make an a priori assumption about the functional behavior of the data in order to calculate the derivative. It has been shown in previous work that the use of the chi-square technique to determine the most likely functional behavior of the data prior to actually calculating the derivative eliminates the need for making a priori assumptions. We note that the a priori choice of a model itself can lead to larger uncertainties as compared to the method that is validated here. In this manuscript, the chi-square technique that determines the most likely functional behavior is validated through numerical simulation and by application to a large body of Raman lidar measurements. In general, we show that the chi-square approach to evaluate aerosol extinction yields lower extinction uncertainty than the traditional technique. We also use the technique to study the feasibility of developing a general characterization of the extinction uncertainty that could permit the uncertainty in Raman lidar aerosol extinction measurements to be estimated accurately without the use of the chi-square technique.

Russo, Felicita↗
NASA NTRS2012

In-Situ Nondestructive Evaluation of Kevlar(Registered Trademark)and Carbon Fiber Reinforced Composite Micromechanics for Improved Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel Health Monitoring

NASA has been faced with recertification and life extension issues for epoxy-impregnated Kevlar 49 (K/Ep) and carbon (C/Ep) composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) used in various systems on the Space Shuttle and International Space Station, respectively. Each COPV has varying criticality, damage and repair histories, time at pressure, and pressure cycles. COPVs are of particular concern due to the insidious and catastrophic burst-before-leak failure mode caused by stress rupture (SR) of the composite overwrap. SR life has been defined [1] as the minimum time during which the composite maintains structural integrity considering the combined effects of stress level(s), time at stress level(s), and associated environment. SR has none of the features of predictability associated with metal pressure vessels, such as crack geometry, growth rate and size, or other features that lend themselves to nondestructive evaluation (NDE). In essence, the variability or surprise factor associated with SR cannot be eliminated. C/Ep COPVs are also susceptible to impact damage that can lead to reduced burst pressure even when the amount of damage to the COPV is below the visual detection threshold [2], thus necessitating implementation of a mechanical damage control plan [1]. Last, COPVs can also fail prematurely due to material or design noncompliance. In each case (SR, impact or noncompliance), out-of-family behavior is expected leading to a higher probability of failure at a given stress, hence, greater uncertainty in performance. For these reasons, NASA has been actively engaged in research to develop NDE methods that can be used during post-manufacture qualification, in-service inspection, and in-situ structural health monitoring. Acoustic emission (AE) is one of the more promising NDE techniques for detecting and monitoring, in real-time, the strain energy release and corresponding stress-wave propagation produced by actively growing flaws and defects in composite materials [3,4,5,6,7,8]. To gain further insight into the mechanisms responsible for composite rupture, broadband modal acoustic emission analysis was used. Also, since AE data reduction proved to be very time consuming, specialized data reduction software was written to automate the process.

Waller, Jess↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE): CONTROL SST Simulation

Climate simulations by 16 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are compared on an aqua-planet, a water-covered Earth with prescribed sea surface temperature varying only in latitude. The idealised configuration is designed to expose differences in the circulation simulated by different models. Basic features of the aqua-planet climate are characterised by comparison with Earth. The models display a wide range of behaviour. The balanced component of the tropospheric mean flow, and mid-latitude eddy covariances subject to budget constraints, vary relatively little among the models. In contrast, differences in damping in the dynamical core strongly influence transient eddy amplitudes. Historical uncertainty in modelled lower stratospheric temperatures persists in APE.Aspects of the circulation generated more directly by interactions between the resolved fluid dynamics and parameterized moist processes vary greatly. The tropical Hadley circulation forms either a single or double inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) at the equator, with large variations in mean precipitation. The equatorial wave spectrum shows a wide range of precipitation intensity and propagation characteristics. Kelvin mode-like eastward propagation with remarkably constant phase speed dominates in most models. Westward propagation, less dispersive than the equatorial Rossby modes, dominates in a few models or occurs within an eastward propagating envelope in others. The mean structure of the ITCZ is related to precipitation variability, consistent with previous studies.The aqua-planet global energy balance is unknown but the models produce a surprisingly large range of top of atmosphere global net flux, dominated by differences in shortwave reflection by clouds. A number of newly developed models, not optimised for Earth climate, contribute to this. Possible reasons for differences in the optimised models are discussed.The aqua-planet configuration is intended as one component of an experimental hierarchy used to evaluate AGCMs. This comparison does suggest that the range of model behaviour could be better understood and reduced in conjunction with Earth climate simulations. Controlled experimentation is required to explore individual model behavior and investigate convergence of the aqua-planet climate with increasing resolution.

AGCM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurement of Charged-Pion Production in Deep-Inelastic Scattering off Nuclei with the CLAS Detector

Background: Energetic quarks in nuclear deep-inelastic scattering propagate through the nuclear medium. Processes that are believed to occur inside nuclei include quark energy loss through medium-stimulated gluon bremsstrahlung and intranuclear interactions of forming hadrons. More data are required to gain a more complete understanding of these effects. Purpose: To test the theoretical models of parton transport and hadron formation, we compared their predictions for the nuclear and kinematic dependence of pion production in nuclei. Methods: We have measured charged-pion production in semi-inclusive deep-inelastic scattering off D, C, Fe, and Pb using the CLAS detector and the CEBAF 5.014-GeV electron beam. We report results on the nuclear-to-deuterium multiplicity ratio for π + and π - as a function of energy transfer, four-momentum transfer, and pion energy fraction or transverse momentum—the first three-dimensional study of its kind. Results: The π + multiplicity ratio is found to depend strongly on the pion fractional energy z and reaches minimum values of 0.67 ± 0.03, 0.43 ± 0.02, and 0.27 ± 0.01 for the C, Fe, and Pb targets, respectively. The z dependencies of the multiplicity ratios for π + and π - are equal within uncertainties for C and Fe targets but show differences at the level of 10% for the Pb-target data. The results are qualitatively described by the GIBUU transport model, as well as with a model based on hadron absorption, but are in tension with calculations based on nuclear fragmentation functions. Conclusions: These precise results will strongly constrain the kinematic and flavor dependence of nuclear effects in hadron production, probing an unexplored kinematic region. They will help to reveal how the nucleus reacts to a fast quark, thereby shedding light on its color structure and transport properties and on the mechanisms of the hadronization process.

Moran, S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

​​Hydrogen Transportation and Distributed Energy Systems Seismic Risk Assessment for Cascadia Subduction Zone Airport Facilities​

Portland International Airport in Oregon is exploring operating a fleet of 28 fuel cell electric buses to support airport operations and possibly provide backup power during outages. In this report, we evaluate the risk of hydrogen deployment at an airport considering the potential for seismic activity. We present a seismic risk assessment for pressurized piping for a generic hydrogen refueling station at the airport. Only pressurized piping was considered in the risk analysis because of its vulnerability and availability of fragility information unlike the other components. Seismic capacity of other components should be included as more information becomes available. To characterize the seismic hazard, we considered the initiating event frequency of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake event based on data from the literature. Seismic stressors that translate to the site from an earthquake event are expressed as peak ground acceleration. Site disturbance is characterized as a function of soil conditions, represented by different shear wave velocity values, which affect how seismic waves propagate and impact structures. Pipe fragility curves as a function of seismic capacity were used to correlate ground acceleration and failure probability. These fragility characteristics were combined with site-specific soil conditions to calculate the probability of pipe rupture during a seismic event. It should be noted that multiple simultaneous failures due to an earthquake event as a common cause are not considered. Some epistemic uncertainties such as self-exciting shocks, aftershocks, and the time variant nature of the ground motion are not considered either.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

FAIR Data and Interpretable AI Framework for Architectured Metamaterials (Final Report)

This research program established a transformative framework for the discovery and design of mechanical metamaterials, which are architected structures engineered to control physical phenomena like sound and vibration in ways natural materials cannot. To overcome the traditional reliance on trial-and-error, the project developed an interpretable Artificial Intelligence (AI) framework that moves beyond "black box" models to reveal the specific geometric patterns—such as "unit-cell templates"—that govern a material’s performance. A major breakthrough was the development of a hierarchical design method, which allows a single material to block vibrations across multiple frequency ranges simultaneously by layering patterns at different scales without them interfering with one another. This was further expanded to include irregular, graph-based designs that use spanning tree algorithms to ensure structural connectivity while allowing for customized, direction-dependent properties like stiffness and acoustic impedance. Beyond design, the project addressed the practicalities of real-world production by developing uncertainty quantification techniques that account for manufacturing defects and material variability, reducing the need for expensive physical testing by orders of magnitude. To speed up the discovery process, the team implemented Gaussian Process Regression and other surrogate models that provide accurate performance predictions at a fraction of the traditional computational cost. The AI-generated designs were successfully validated through fabrication of physical samples and wave propagation experiments, confirming their ability to accurately guide or reflect waves as predicted. By contributing these tools and high-quality FAIR benchmark datasets to the wider scientific community, this work provides a scalable foundation for advancing technologies in aerospace vibration control, medical imaging, and noise reduction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1998

Neural Network Control of a Magnetically Suspended Rotor System

Magnetic bearings offer significant advantages because they do not come into contact with other parts during operation, which can reduce maintenance. Higher speeds, no friction, no lubrication, weight reduction, precise position control, and active damping make them far superior to conventional contact bearings. However, there are technical barriers that limit the application of this technology in industry. One of them is the need for a nonlinear controller that can overcome the system nonlinearity and uncertainty inherent in magnetic bearings. At the NASA Lewis Research Center, a neural network was selected as a nonlinear controller because it generates a neural model without any detailed information regarding the internal working of the magnetic bearing system. It can be used even for systems that are too complex for an accurate system model to be derived. A feed-forward architecture with a back-propagation learning algorithm was selected because of its proven performance, accuracy, and relatively easy implementation.

Choi, Benjamin B.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Three-dimensional interaction of interplanetary shock waves with the bow shock and magnetopause - A comparison of theory with ISEE observations

The reported investigation is concerned with the propagation of the interplanetary shock waves in the solar wind and their three-dimensional interaction with the bow shock and magnetosheath. Formulae are deduced to predict the new position and orientation of the bow shock front after the interaction. To test the understanding of the interplanetary portion of the shock propagation, the obtained results are compared with observations on August 18, 1978, when both ISEE 1 and ISEE 3 were in the solar wind. Two examples of an interplanetary shock wave penetrating into the magnetosphere on October 4, 1978, and August 27, 1978, are examined, taking into account a simple model of the magnetosheath. The results agree with the observed values of the ISEE satellite data within experimental uncertainties.

Zhuang, H. C.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Propagation directions of hydromagnetic waves in interplanetary space - Pioneer 10 and 11

The real and imaginary parts of spectral matrices of magnetic field fluctuations near 4 and 5 AU are used separately to generate estimates of hydromagnetic wave normal directions over the frequency range 0.00001 to 0.01 Hz in the spacecraft frame. Both procedures suggest the predominance of the Alfven mode over the fast and slow MHD modes among transverse magnetic field perturbations. Both procedures also show that the Alfven mode is more common among transverse perturbations at 4 AU than at 5 AU. Statistical techniques are for estimating uncertainties in computed wave normal directions and it is concluded that the real parts of the spectral matrices are more useful than the imaginary parts in specifying wave normals at times of magnetic quiet in the solar wind near 4 and 5 AU.

Parker, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Quality Control Algorithms for the Kennedy Space Center 50-Megahertz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler Winds Database

This paper presents the process used by the Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Branch (EV44) to quality control (QC) data from the Kennedy Space Center's 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler for use in vehicle wind loads and steering commands. The database has been built to mitigate limitations of using the currently archived databases from weather balloons. The DRWP database contains wind measurements from approximately 2.7-18.6 km altitude at roughly five minute intervals for the August 1997 to December 2009 period of record, and the extensive QC process was designed to remove spurious data from various forms of atmospheric and non-atmospheric artifacts. The QC process is largely based on DRWP literature, but two new algorithms have been developed to remove data contaminated by convection and excessive first guess propagations from the Median Filter First Guess Algorithm. In addition to describing the automated and manual QC process in detail, this paper describes the extent of the data retained. Roughly 58% of all possible wind observations exist in the database, with approximately 100 times as many complete profile sets existing relative to the EV44 balloon databases. This increased sample of near-continuous wind profile measurements may help increase launch availability by reducing the uncertainty of wind changes during launch countdown

Barbre, Robert E., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probing the Boundary between Classical and Quantum Mechanics by Analyzing the Energy Dependence of Single-Electron Scattering Events at the Nanoscale

The relation between the energy-dependent particle and wave descriptions of electron–matter interactions on the nanoscale was analyzed by measuring the delocalization of an evanescent field from energy-filtered amplitude images of sample/vacuum interfaces with a special aberration-corrected electron microscope. The spatial field extension coincided with the energy-dependent self-coherence length of propagating wave packets that obeyed the time-dependent Schrödinger equation, and underwent a Goos–Hänchen shift. The findings support the view that wave packets are created by self-interferences during coherent–inelastic Coulomb interactions with a decoherence phase close to Δφ = 0.5 rad. Due to a strictly reciprocal dependence on energy, the wave packets shrink below atomic dimensions for electron energy losses beyond 1000 eV, and thus appear particle-like. Consequently, our observations inevitably include pulse-like wave propagations that stimulate structural dynamics in nanomaterials at any electron energy loss, which can be exploited to unravel time-dependent structure–function relationships on the nanoscale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1991

Signal-to-noise considerations for sky-subtracted CCD data

The standard equation for calculating the uncertainty of photometry obtained from CCDs does not correctly consider the random errors, or 'noise', introduced into observations by procedures used in reducing the data. This paper presents a thorough derivation of the theoretical error equation that considers the contributions from all internal noise sources in the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of a sky-subtracted image. A simplified version used for estimating the internal errors from empirical data is also derived. The propagation of noise through the data-reduction process is illustrated through a series of equations for the change in S/N that results from a variety of different operations performed on a CCD frame. Comparing these effects with the results expected for an observation made with an ideal detector suggests a number of ways to improve the precision of photometry through the practices employed in obtaining and reducing the observations.

Newberry, Michael V.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of nEXO to 136 Xe charged-current interactions: Background-free searches for solar neutrinos and fermionic dark matter

We study the sensitivity of nEXO to solar neutrino charged-current interactions, 𝜈 𝑒 + 136 Xe → 136 Cs*+𝑒 − , as well as analogous interactions predicted by models of fermionic dark matter. Due to the recently observed low-lying isomeric states of 136 Cs, these interactions will create a time-delayed coincident signal observable in the scintillation channel. Here we develop a detailed Monte Carlo simulation of scintillation emission, propagation, and detection in the nEXO detector to model these signals under different assumptions about the timing resolution of the photosensor readout. We show this correlated signal can be used to achieve background discrimination on the order of 10 −9 , enabling nEXO to make background-free measurements of solar neutrinos above the reaction threshold of 0.668 MeV. We project that nEXO could measure the flux of neutrinos from the carbon-nitrogen-oxygen cycle with a statistical uncertainty of 25%, thus contributing a novel and competitive measurement toward addressing the solar metallicity problem. Additionally, nEXO could measure the mean energy of the 7 Be neutrinos with a precision of 𝜎 ≤ 1.5 keV and could determine the survival probability of 7 Be and pep solar 𝜈𝑒 with precision comparable to the state of the art. These quantities are sensitive to the Sun’s core temperature and to nonstandard neutrino interactions, respectively. Here, the strong background suppression would allow nEXO to search for charged-current interactions of fermionic dark matter in the mass range 𝑚 𝜒 = 0.668–7 MeV with a sensitivity up to three orders of magnitude better than current limits.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Manufacturability-based optical design optimization for advanced Kirkpatrick–Baez X-ray focusing mirrors

The advanced Kirkpatrick–Baez (AKB) mirror setup is an effective and compelling solution to provide stable X-ray nano-focusing for synchrotron radiation or free-electron laser beamlines. We propose an AKB mirror design optimization approach to mitigate the difficulties associated with mirror fabrication by minimizing the total slope ranges of the four curved mirrors while achieving the expected focusing performance. In the optimization, we have considered geometry constraints to ensure the beam acceptance with the required clear aperture, the diffraction-limited focal size with the adequate numerical aperture, and the desired mirror gaps for adjustment and the necessary working distance for the sample stage. Additionally, practical constraints linked to mirror metrology and fabrication, such as mirror length limits and curvature uncertainty in measurement, are taken into account. Furthermore, progressive objective optimization eliminates the need for any initial guess, fully automating the AKB optimization process. This approach facilitates the development of an elegant Wolter-I or Wolter-III type AKB design solution that satisfies these multiple constraints. In cases where constraints cannot be simultaneously satisfied, the optimization results provide valuable insights into areas where trade-offs need to be considered. Simulations with ray tracing and wavefront propagation validate the optimized AKB design showing high tolerance to the beam incident angle.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗