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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 901 records · Page 50

Sensitivity-Driven Experimental Design to Facilitate Control of Dynamical Systems

Control of nonlinear dynamical systems is a complex and multifaceted process. Essential elements of many engineering systems include high-fidelity physics-based modeling, offline trajectory planning, feedback control design, and data acquisition strategies to reduce uncertainties. Here this article proposes an optimization-centric perspective which couples these elements in a cohesive framework. We introduce a novel use of hyper-differential sensitivity analysis to understand the sensitivity of feedback controllers to parametric uncertainty in physics-based models used for trajectory planning. These sensitivities provide a foundation to define an optimal experimental design which seeks to acquire data most relevant in reducing demand on the feedback controller. Our proposed framework is illustrated on the Zermelo navigation problem and a hypersonic trajectory control problem using data from NASA’s X-43 hypersonic flight tests.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Land Processes Can Substantially Impact the Mean Climate State

Terrestrial processes influence the atmosphere by controlling land-to-atmosphere fluxes of energy, water, and carbon. Prior research has demonstrated that parameter uncertainty drives uncertainty in land surface fluxes. However, the influence of land process uncertainty on the climate system remains underexplored. Here, we quantify how assumptions about land processes impact climate using a perturbed parameter ensemble for 18 land parameters in the Community Earth System Model version 2 under preindustrial conditions. We find that an observationally-informed range of land parameters generate biogeophysical feedbacks that significantly influence the mean climate state, largely by modifying evapotranspiration. Global mean land surface temperature ranges by 2.2°C across our ensemble (σ = 0.5°C) and precipitation changes were significant and spatially variable. Our analysis demonstrates that the impacts of land parameter uncertainty on surface fluxes propagate to the entire Earth system, and provides insights into where and how land process uncertainty influences climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: cosmology with moments of weak lensing mass maps – validation on simulations

ABSTRACT We present a simulated cosmology analysis using the second and third moments of the weak lensing mass (convergence) maps. The second moment, or variances, of the convergence as a function of smoothing scale contains information similar to standard shear two-point statistics. The third moment, or the skewness, contains additional non-Gaussian information. The analysis is geared towards the third year (Y3) data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), but the methodology can be applied to other weak lensing data sets. We present the formalism for obtaining the convergence maps from the measured shear and for obtaining the second and third moments of these maps given partial sky coverage. We estimate the covariance matrix from a large suite of numerical simulations. We test our pipeline through a simulated likelihood analyses varying 5 cosmological parameters and 10 nuisance parameters and identify the scales where systematic or modelling uncertainties are not expected to affect the cosmological analysis. Our simulated likelihood analysis shows that the combination of second and third moments provides a 1.5 per cent constraint on S8 ≡ σ8(Ωm/0.3)0.5 for DES Year 3 data. This is 20 per cent better than an analysis using a simulated DES Y3 shear two-point statistics, owing to the non-Gaussian information captured by the inclusion of higher order statistics. This paper validates our methodology for constraining cosmology with DES Year 3 data, which will be presented in a subsequent paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Tank 27 Solids Disturbance Testing Using M-Star for the Impact of CSMP Usage on Blend Tank Mixing Effectiveness

Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC) plans to operate Tank 27as a blend tank for future waste disposal operations. It is desirable to avoid additional worker exposure by using the planned commercial submersible mixing pump (CSMP) installations in Risers B2 and B4 to function as the blend pumps for prolonged blend tank operations. The purpose of this task is to evaluate the impacts to mixing across a range of pump installation heights from 1 to 201 inches above the tank floor. The CSMPs shall maintain adequate blending within a 24 hour maximum timeframe and an adequate nozzle discharge velocity as outlined in U-ESR-G-00030, using the specifications of the planned CSMPs listed in PO SRRA149971 and M-DS-G-00081. Specifications include: maximum pump diameter of D=22.5 in., dual nozzles placed tangentially opposed with nominal inside diameter of 2 in., total flow range (both nozzles combined) of 500 to 1950 GPM and maximum RPM of 1800. Tank 27 is expected to have a fill height maximum of 360". This analysis began by using results from the 2010 testing and applying them to the Tank 27 design to calculate a mixing time as a function of pump flow rate. These results were modified to account for the higher liquid level in Tank 27. Once the liquid level was increased to 360 inches, the results were modified to account for a higher viscosity in Tank 27 than in the testing. Once the viscosity was increased, the effect of changing pump elevation was applied to calculations of the mixing time in Tank 27. Finally, the uncertainty from the testing was included in the analysis to recommend a blend time as a function of pump flow rate and elevation. The conclusion from this study is that the particles in tank 27 will be suspended at both the 600 and 900 gpm flow rates. Only particles above 90 micron will not be suspended in significant amounts when the flow rate is 600 gpm. At 900 gpm even 100 micron particles were thoroughly suspended in the tank. From the series of simulations it has been concluded that it will not be possible to mix tank 27 at the proposed fluid flow rates and not suspend the solid particles at the bottom of the tank.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Uniformly Ordered Binary Decision Algorithm for Benchmark Experiment Correlations in Whisper Validation

When performing a validation exercise for determining the upper subcritical limit of a nuclear criticality safety application, an analyst should select and perform a statistical analysis on a population of benchmark experiments that are neutronically similar to the application. The size of this population should be sufficiently large such that the statistical analysis has a high degree of confidence that the bias plus bias uncertainty (calculational margin) has been accurately quantified. A complication arises because many benchmark experiments share common components, leading to correlations in their measured effective multiplication factors. Correlations between benchmark experiments within the population reduces its predictive power. This motivates the need for methods that consider benchmark experiment correlations and ensure adequate statistical significance of results. The Whisper code is a statistical analysis pack- age that incorporates nuclear data sensitivity coefficients from MCNP to assess benchmark experiment similarity and then performs an extreme-value analysis to estimate the bias plus bias uncertainty. The original methodology in Whisper does not consider the effect of benchmark experiment correlations when making this estimation, and this summary proposes the uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm to address this shortcoming. The original methodology in Whisper computes similarity coefficients ck for an application compared to all benchmark experiments in its library and develops weighting factors for a selected population proportional to the ck values. The methodology can be interpreted as statistically emulating a validation exercise for a particular application where the weighting factors may be viewed as the likelihood that an analyst would include a particular benchmark experiment within the population. The effective sample size of the population is the expected or mean number of benchmark experiments in the population. The uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm identifies clusters of correlated benchmark experiments within the population and then computes adjusted weighting factors based on the magnitude of the correlation coefficients within the cluster to compute a reduced effective sample size accounting for the lower information content because of correlations. Benchmark experiments within the cluster are ordered randomly with equal probability and probabilistic decisions are made as to whether a benchmark. experiment within the cluster should treated as redundant with a previous one; if two redundant benchmark experiments are included, then the conservative worst case bias plus bias uncertainty is used and the pair is counted as a single benchmark experiment in the population. Results are provided for HEU solutions in a research version of the Whisper software using benchmark experiment correlations provided by DICE, the Database for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). These show that there can be a significant increase in the bias plus bias uncertainty because the effective sample size is reduced, and therefore the algorithm, needing to meet sample size requirements, expands the benchmark experiment population by accepting less similar benchmark experiments that would have otherwise not been included.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.

Climate Change↗

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Climate-Relevant Gas Absorption Properties from AWARE and Other ARM Spectral Measurements (Final Report)

The objective of this project has been to use measurements from the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) deployed at ARM sites to improve our knowledge of uncertain infrared spectroscopic parameters of importance to climate, remote sensing, and data assimilation. A primary focus has been the water vapor continuum in the infrared atmospheric window. Radiation codes used to predict climate and weather base their representation of the water vapor continuum in this window on the MT_CKD model, but in this spectral region the MT_CKD water vapor continuum absorption coefficients were derived almost two decades ago by an analysis of AERI measurements for conditions with a limited range of precipitable water vapor (PWV) and temperature values, leading to uncertainty in the derived coefficients. This project has included a new, comprehensive analysis of all aspects of the water vapor continuum in the atmospheric window -- the self continuum, the foreign continuum, and the self continuum temperature dependence, all resolved spectrally. Having a wide range of PWV amounts and temperatures from deployments of the ARM Mobile Facility for GoAmazon as well as the more than a decade of AERI measurements at SGP has provided an appropriate foundation for such a comprehensive analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Driving mode analysis—How uncertain functional inputs propagate to an output

Abstract Driving mode analysis elucidates how correlated features of uncertain functional inputs jointly propagate to produce uncertainty in the output of a computation. Uncertain input functions are decomposed into three terms: the mean functions, a zero‐mean driving mode, and zero‐mean residual. The random driving mode varies along a single direction, having fixed functional shape and random scale. It is uncorrelated with the residual, and under linear error propagation, it produces an output variance equal to that of the full input uncertainty. Finally, the driving mode best represents how input uncertainties propagate to the output because it minimizes expected squared Mahalanobis distance amongst competitors. These characteristics recommend interpretation of the driving mode as the single‐degree‐of‐freedom component of input uncertainty that drives output uncertainty. We derive the functional driving mode, show its superiority to other seemingly sensible definitions, and demonstrate the utility of driving mode analysis in an application. The application is the simulation of neutron transport in criticality experiments. The uncertain input functions are nuclear data that describe how Pu reacts to bombardment by neutrons. Visualization of the driving mode helps scientists understand what aspects of correlated functional uncertainty have effects that either reinforce or cancel one another in propagating to the output of the simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

On the Need to Align Intent and Implementation in Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and estimation across disciplines, and (b) the varying technical requirements for establishing trustworthy uncertainties in diverse problem contexts. In this position paper, we aim to clarify the depth of these challenges by identifying these inconsistencies and articulating how different contexts impose distinct epistemic demands. We examine the current landscape of estimation targets (e.g., prediction, inference, simulation-based inference), uncertainty constructs (e.g., frequentist, Bayesian, fiducial), and the approaches used to map between them. Drawing on the literature, we highlight and explain examples of problematic mappings. To help address these issues, we advocate for standards that promote alignment between the \textit{intent} and \textit{implementation} of uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches. We discuss several axes of trustworthiness that are necessary (if not sufficient) for reliable UQ in ML models, and show how these axes can inform the design and evaluation of uncertainty-aware ML systems. Our practical recommendations focus on scientific ML, offering illustrative cases and use scenarios, particularly in the context of simulation-based inference (SBI).

Trivedi, Shubhendu [MIT] (ORCID:0000000312374301)↗

Measurement of the muon spin precession frequency using the straw tracking detectors at the Fermilab Muon g-2 experiment

The measurement of the anomalous magnetic dipole moment of the muon ($a_{\mu}$) has long stood as an excellent precision test of the Standard Model (SM). The Fermilab Muon g-2 experiment has recently finished data-taking and in July 2023 published its latest determination of $a_\mu$ with a world-leading precision of 0.2\,ppm. In this publication, it surpassed the systematic uncertainty goal defined in the TDR. The analyses of a dataset approximately four times larger than this recent publication is now underway. The principle measurement of the Muon g-2 experiment measures $a_{\mu}$ by taking the ratio of two frequencies; the anomalous precession frequency ($\omega_a$) and the muon-weighted magnetic field of the experiment's storage ring measured from the precession frequency of protons in water using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) probes. In all publications to date, $\omega_a$ has been determined using energy deposits in the 24 calorimeters. However, the Fermilab experiment has t wo straw tracker detectors measuring the time and momentum of charged particles which can in principle also be used to to measure $\omega_a$ and such a measurement can provide an invaluable cross-check of the calorimeter result with different, and reduced, systematic uncertainties. This thesis presents the first (blinded) determination of $\omega_a$ using just charged tracks from the straw tracking detectors as opposed to calorimeter energy deposits. This analysis was undertaken using the Run-2/3 dataset which represents approximately 25\% of the final dataset. A total uncertainty of 2.19\,ppm on $\omega_a$ was obtained which is dominated by the statistical uncertainty of 2.16\,ppm. Additionally two new methodologies important to the analysis of the straw tracking data have been developed: one to better determine the track arrival time ($t_0$) and one to determine the level of pileup in the tracking detectors. The new $t_0$ algorithm which incorporates angular information improves t he resolution on the determination of the $t_0$ by a factor of two and results in 19\% more tracks being successfully reconstructed. The data from the trackers is also used to determine the beam profile that weights the magnetic field in the determination of $a_\mu$ and in determining several of the systematic uncertainties in the calorimeter-based $\omega_a$ analysis. A detailed study of the impact of the internal alignment of the tracker, the $t_0$ and pileup on the determination of the beam position was undertaken and propagated through to an uncertainty in the $\omega_a$ determination. These uncertainties were used in the Fermilab Muon g-2 experiment's recent publication in Phys. Rev. Lett.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Antiproton bounds on dark matter annihilation from a combined analysis using the DRAGON2 code

Abstract Early studies of the AMS-02 antiproton ratio identified a possible excess over the expected astrophysical background that could be fit by the annihilation of a weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP). However, recent efforts have shown that uncertainties in cosmic-ray propagation, the antiproton production cross-section, and correlated systematic uncertainties in the AMS-02 data, may combine to decrease or eliminate the significance of this feature. We produce an advanced analysis using the DRAGON2 code which, for the first time, simultaneously fits the antiproton ratio along with multiple secondary cosmic-ray flux measurements to constrain astrophysical and nuclear uncertainties. Compared to previous work, our analysis benefits from a combination of: (1) recently released AMS-02 antiproton data, (2) updated nuclear fragmentation cross-section fits, (3) a rigorous Bayesian parameter space scan that constrains cosmic-ray propagation parameters.We find no statistically significant preference for a dark matter signal and set strong constraints on WIMP annihilation tobb̅, ruling out annihilation at the thermal cross-section for dark matter masses below ∼ 200 GeV. We do find a positive residual that is consistent with previous work, and can be explained by a ∼ 70 GeV WIMP annihilating below the thermal cross-section. However, our default analysis finds this excess to have a local significance of only 2.8σ, which is decreased to 1.8σwhen the look-elsewhere effect is taken into account.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

The Pantheon+ Analysis: Forward Modeling the Dust and Intrinsic Color Distributions of Type Ia Supernovae, and Quantifying Their Impact on Cosmological Inferences

Abstract Recent studies have shown that the observed color distributions of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) can be well described by a combination of a dust distribution and an intrinsic color distribution. Using the Pantheon+ sample of 1701 SN Ia, we apply a new forward-modeling fitting method (Dust2Dust) to measure the parent dust and color distributions, including their dependence on host-galaxy mass. At each fit step, the SN Ia selection efficiency is determined from a large simulated sample that is reweighted to reflect the proposed distributions. We use five separate metrics to describe the goodness of fit: distribution of fitted light-curve color c , cosmological residual trends with c , cosmological residual scatter with c , fitted color–luminosity relationship β SALT2 , and intrinsic scatter σ int . We present the results and the uncertainty in 12-dimensional space. Furthermore, we measure that the uncertainty on this modeling propagates to an upper threshold uncertainty in the equation of state of dark energy w of 0.014(1) for the Pantheon+ cosmology analysis and contributes negligible uncertainty to the Hubble constant H 0 . The Dust2Dust code is made publicly available at https://github.com/djbrout/dustdriver .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Boosting efficiency and reducing graph reliance: Basis adaptation integration in Bayesian multi-fidelity networks

The computational cost of high-fidelity numerical models makes outer-loop analysis, which requires repeated interrogation of the model such as uncertainty quantification, computationally demanding. Multi-fidelity methods, which construct a surrogate model using data from an ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy, can substantially reduce the cost of outer-loop analysis. However, these methods can be difficult to apply when the model ensemble does not admit a clear hierarchy a priori and the correlations between models are low. Consequently, in this paper, we present a multi-fidelity method that leverages dimension reduction to enhance the correlation between models, thereby reducing the amount of data needed to train a surrogate from an unordered ensemble of models. Our method utilizes basis adaptation to build low-dimensional polynomial chaos expansions of each model and employs Multi-fidelity Networks to encode the relationships among models. We show that the resulting method exhibit two notable advantages over its counterpart: (1) enhanced accuracy (both reduced bias and variance); and (2) reduced dependency on the graph structure encoding relationships among models. We demonstrate the approach on an analytical test problem and a challenging finite element model for a spent nuclear fuel. Our method produces a surrogate model that is significantly more accurate than either a single-fidelity surrogate or a multi-fidelity surrogate constructed without basis adaptation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sample shape and boundary dependence of measured transverse thermal properties

In spite of increased interest in thermal Hall measurements for the analysis of insulating quantum materials, there remains large uncertainty in such measurements due to contact misalignment. In this paper, we propose that sample geometry and uncertain boundary conditions provide an additional source of uncertainty in the measurement of $D_{xy}$ or $κ_{xy}$. By running simple simulations in an open source finite-element solver, we demonstrate that measured $D_{xy}$ can be changed by a non-negligible fraction in samples with similar width and length. This geometric corrective factor depends on the distinction between a uniform heat flow and constant temperature boundary couplings to a bath. Sample geometry and boundary conditions can be accounted for through simulation or by using rectangular samples to make thermal Hall measurements more reliable and reproducible. Finally, we detail a contactless optical method for measuring $D_{xy}$ based on an existing photothermal microscope technique. This method is insensitive to the longitudinal diffusivity pollution caused by contact misalignment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SCALE 6.3 Validation: Reactor Physics

This study was performed to validate the SCALE/Polaris v6.3.0–PARCS v3.4.2 code procedure with the ENDF/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-group library for light-water reactor analysis by comparing the simulated results with the measured data for critical experiments and operating light-water reactors. Uncertainties of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code procedure for light-water reactor physics analysis were evaluated in the validation for key nuclear parameters such as reactivity, control bank work, temperature coefficients, and pin and assembly power peaking factors. In addition, the SCALE/TRITON v6.3.1 procedure with the ENDF/B-VII.1 and VIII.0 252-group and continuous-energy cross sections was validated for non-lightwater reactors including the HTR-10 reactor, the High-Temperature Test Reactor, the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment, and the Experimental Breeder Reactor II.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Efficient Distance-based Global Sensitivity Analysis for Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

Sensitivity analysis in terrestrial ecosystem modeling is important for understanding controlling processes, guiding model development, and targeting new observations to reduce parameter and prediction uncertainty. Complex and computationally expensive terrestrial ecosystem models (TEM) limit the number of ensemble simulations, requiring sophisticated and efficient methods to analyze sensitivities of multiple model responses to different types of parameter uncertainties. In this study, we propose a distance-based global sensitivity analysis (DGSA) method. DGSA first classifies model response samples into a small set of discrete classes and then calculates the distance between parameter frequency distributions in different classes to measure the parameter sensitivity. The principle is that, if the parameter distribution is the same in each class, then the model response is insensitive to the parameter, while a large difference in the distributions indicates the parameter is influential to the response. Built on this idea, DGSA can be applied to analyze sensitivity of a single and a group of responses to different kinds of parameter uncertainties including continuous, discrete and even stochastic. Besides the main-effect sensitivity from a single parameter, DGSA can also quantify the sensitivity from parameter interactions. Additionally, DGSA is computationally efficient which can use a small number of model evaluations to obtain an accurate and statistically significant result. We applied DGSA to two TEMs, one having eight parameters and three kinds of model responses, and the other having 47 parameters and a long-period response. We demonstrated that DGSA can be used for sensitivity problems with multiple responses and high-dimensional parameters efficiently.

Lu, Dan↗