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NASA NTRS2003

High End Computing Technologies for Earth Science Applications: Trends, Challenges, and Innovations

Earth science applications of the future will stress the capabilities of even the highest performance supercomputers in the areas of raw compute power, mass storage management, and software environments. These NASA mission critical problems demand usable multi-petaflops and exabyte-scale systems to fully realize their science goals. With an exciting vision of the technologies needed, NASA has established a comprehensive program of advanced research in computer architecture, software tools, and device technology to ensure that, in partnership with US industry, it can meet these demanding requirements with reliable, cost effective, and usable ultra-scale systems. NASA will exploit, explore, and influence emerging high end computing architectures and technologies to accelerate the next generation of engineering, operations, and discovery processes for NASA Enterprises. This article captures this vision and describes the concepts, accomplishments, and the potential payoff of the key thrusts that will help meet the computational challenges in Earth science applications.

Parks, John↗
NASA NTRS2003

Past, Present and Future Trends for NASA's EEE Parts Program

The foundation of NASA's Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) parts program is standardization. Standardization helps to reduce the number of unknown variables present as a project or program progresses; unknown variables equate to unknown risk. NASA spacecraft are usually 'one-offs' or at least part of a very short run, and every new part that is used represents a risk that has to be understood and mitigated as necessary. This equates directly to time and cost. Standardization of component parts is used to provide a foundation of known, dependable, qualified parts upon which a safe, reliable system can be built. In addition, the evaluation and selection of parts for the standard parts list unifies the activity under one group of experts rather than having engineers on each project overlapping and duplicating efforts. Thus, the project support engineers are able to concentrate on understanding and mitigating the risks for the non standard parts required to meet specific requirements of their project. Rapid technology change is producing conditions that make any form of parts-based standardization increasingly difficult, particularly the use of Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) parts and assemblies. There are many complications to COTS-based standardization. COTS parts change rapidly and unpredictably, often have different characteristics fiom manufacturer to manufacturer, frequently are only available through distribution, have no universal specification and have variable and unpredictable radiation characteristics. This presentation will discuss some potential approaches to COTS parts standardization. Further into the future, in three to five years perhaps, the use of COTS boards and boxes will be extensive and standardization at these levels of assembly will be necessary. In five to ten years, most major spacecraft functions will probably be performed by COTS boards. How will this be achieved? What role will the parts engineer play, if any? This presentation will borrow from the lessons of the past to suggest some scenarios for the future.

Sampson, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Plausible Explanations for Trends in Project Programmatic Findings

This paper investigates several published hypotheses to determine which might explain the observed cyclic pattern in programmatic findings by independent review teams over a ten-year period. The data does not neatly support any of the intra-project theories considered; however, something is obviously triggering these findings. A closer examination of the narratives associated with the programmatic findings did reveal consistency. The recurring themes that appeared with more numerous findings were unclear roles and staffing problems. Other explanations, external to the project teams, were also explored and the data supported a distributed political influence on project performance.

Parsons, Vickie S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Assessing the Effectiveness of a Mathematics-Focused, Instructional Technology Program for Grades 6-8: A 5-Year Trend Analysis of NASA CONNECT(tm) Evaluation Data

NASA CONNECT is a research-, inquiry, and standards-based, integrated mathematics, science, and technology series of 30-minute instructional distance learning (television and web-based) programs for students in grades 6 8. Respondents who evaluated the programs in the series over the first five seasons (1998-99 through 2002-03) reported that (1) they used the programs in the series; (2) the goals and objectives for the series were met; (3) the programs were aligned with the national mathematics, science, and technology standards; (4) the program content was developmentally appropriate for the grade level; and (5) the programs in the series enhanced and enriched the teaching of mathematics, science, and technology.

Glassman, Nanci A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Mesosphere-Stratosphere Coupling: Implications for Climate Variability and Trends

A key aspect of this project is the establishment of a causal link from circulation anomalies in the lower mesosphere and stratopause region downward through the stratosphere to the troposphere. The observational link for stratospheric sudden warmings and surface climate is fairly clear. However, our understanding of the dynamics is incomplete. We have been making significant progress in the area of dynamical mechanisms by which circulation anomalies in the stratosphere affect the troposphere. We are trying to understand the details and sequence of events that occur when a middle atmosphere (wind) anomaly propagates downward to near the tropopause. The wind anomaly could be caused by a warming or solar variations in the low-latitude stratopause region, or could have other causes. The observations show a picture that is consistent with a circulation anomaly that descends to the tropopause region, and can be detected as low as the mid-troposphere. Processes near the stratopause in the tropics appear to be important precursors to the wintertime development of the northern polar vortex. This may affect significantly our understanding of the process by which low-latitude wind anomalies in the low mesosphere and upper stratosphere evolve through the winter and affect the polar vortex.

Baldwin, Mark P.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Martian North Polar Impacts and Volcanoes: Feature Discrimination and Comparisons to Global Trends

The recent Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey Missions have greatly improved our available data for the north polar region of Mars. Pre- MGS and MO studies proposed possible volcanic features, and have revealed numerous volcanoes and impact craters in a range of weathering states that were poorly visible or not visible in prior data sets. This new data has helped in the reassessment of the polar deposits. From images or shaded Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) topography grids alone, it has proved to be difficult to differentiate cratered cones of probable volcanic origins from impact craters that appear to have been filled. It is important that the distinction is made if possible, as the relative ages of the polar deposits hinge on small numbers of craters, and the local volcanic regime originally only proposed small numbers of volcanoes. Therefore, we have expanded prior work on detailed topographic parameter measurements and modeling for the polar volcanic landforms and mapped and measured all of the probable volcanic and impact features for the north polar region as well as other midlatitude fields, and suggest that: 1) The polar volcanic edifices are significantly different topographically from midlatitude edifices, and have steeper slopes and larger craters as a group; 2) The impact craters are actually distinct from the volcanoes in terms of the feature volume that is cavity compared to feature volume that is positive relief; 3) There are actually several distinct types of volcanic edifices present; 4) These types tend to be spatially grouped by edifice. This is a contrast to many of the other small volcanic fields around Mars, where small edifices tend to be mixed types within a field.

Sakimoto, E. H.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Higher northern latitude normalized difference vegetation index and growing season trends from 1982 to 1999

Normalized difference vegetation index data from the polar-orbiting National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorological satellites from 1982 to 1999 show significant variations in photosynthetic activity and growing season length at latitudes above 35 degrees N. Two distinct periods of increasing plant growth are apparent: 1982-1991 and 1992-1999, separated by a reduction from 1991 to 1992 associated with global cooling resulting from the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in June 1991. The average May to September normalized difference vegetation index from 45 degrees N to 75 degrees N increased by 9% from 1982 to 1991, decreased by 5% from 1991 to 1992, and increased by 8% from 1992 to 1999. Variations in the normalized difference vegetation index were associated with variations in the start of the growing season of -5.6, +3.9, and -1.7 days respectively, for the three time periods. Our results support surface temperature increases within the same period at higher northern latitudes where temperature limits plant growth.

Ecosystem↗
NASA NTRS1998

Oxygen and evolutionary patterns in the sea: onshore/offshore trends and recent recruitment of deep-sea faunas

Over the last 15 years a striking pattern of diversification has been documented in the fossil record of benthic marine invertebrates. Higher taxa (orders) tend to originate onshore, diversify offshore, and retreat into deep-water environments. Previous studies attribute this macroevolutionary pattern to a variety of causes, foremost among them the role of nearshore disturbance in providing opportunities for the evolution of novel forms accorded ordinal rank. Our analysis of the post-Paleozoic record of ordinal first appearances indicates that the onshore preference of ordinal origination occurred only in the Mesozoic prior to the Turonian stage of the Cretaceous, a period characterized by relatively frequent anoxic/dysoxic bottom conditions in deeper marine environments. Later, in the Cretaceous and Cenozoic, ordinal origination of benthic organisms did not occur exclusively, or even preferentially, in onshore environments. This change in environmental pattern of ordinal origination roughly correlates with Late Cretaceous: (i) decline in anoxia/dysoxia in offshore benthic environments; (ii) extinction of faunas associated with dysoxic conditions; (iii) increase in bioturbation with the expansion of deep burrowing forms into offshore environments; and (iv) offshore expansion of bryozoan diversity. We also advance a separate argument that the Cenomanian/Turonian and latest Paleocene global events eliminated much of the deep-water benthos. This requires a more recent origin of modern vent and deep-sea faunas, from shallower water refugia, than the Paleozoic or early Mesozoic origin of these faunas suggested by other workers.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2000

Circadian rhythms of performance: new trends

This brief review is concerned with how human performance efficiency changes as a function of time of day. It presents an overview of some of the research paradigms and conceptual models that have been used to investigate circadian performance rhythms. The influence of homeostatic and circadian processes on performance regulation is discussed. The review also briefly presents recent mathematical models of alertness that have been used to predict cognitive performance. Related topics such as interindividual differences and the postlunch dip are presented.

Review, Tutorial↗
NASA NTRS2004

Response of Sea Ice and Marine Ecosystems to the Observed Warming Trends in the Arctic

Our third (final) year activities have focused on two elements: 1) Creating and evaluating panarctic weekly climatologies of ocean color products for 1998 through 2002, 2) Interacting to assess image databases, submit and revise publications. Comiso and his programmer have principal responsibility for assembling and archiving the monthly and weekly image database at GSFC. There are now five year's (1998-2002) of climatologies. In addition to email correspondence, the PIs have met to prepare a series of publications ranging from panarctic physical-biological interactions to more focused regional studies.

Cota, Glenn F.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Long-Term Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Variability Trends: 1984-2004

The incoming total solar irradiance (TSI), typically referred to as the solar constant, is being studied to identify long-term TSI changes, which may trigger global climate changes. The TSI is normalized to the mean earth-sun distance. Studies of spacecraft TSI data sets confirmed the existence of 0.1 %, long-term TSI variability component with a period of 10 years. The component varied directly with solar magnetic activity associated with recent 10-year sunspot cycles. The 0.1 % TSI variability component is clearly present in the spacecraft data sets from the 1984-2004, Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) active cavity radiometer (ACR) solar monitor; 1978-1993, Nimbus-7 HF; 1980-1989, Solar Maximum Mission [SMM] ACRIM; 1991-2004, Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) ACRIM; 1996-2003, Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/VIRGO, Space Science (ATLAS), 2000-2004, ACRIMSAT; and 2003-2004 SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) active cavity radiometer (ACR) missions. From October 1984, through March 2004, the ERBS/ERBE solar monitor was used to produce the longest continuous data set of total solar irradiance (TSI) variability measurements. The solar monitor is located on Shuttle Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and the NASA Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS). Maximum TSI values occurred during the 1989-1991, and 1998-2002, time frames; while minimum [quiet sun] TSI levels occurred during 1986 and 1996. Recent ERBS measurements indicate that the TSI is decreasing to forecasted, minimum levels by 2006. Using the discontinuous non-operational Nimbus-7, SMM ACRIM, and UARS ACRIM mission TSI data sets, Wilson and Mordvinor (2003) suggested the existence of an additional long-term TSI variability component, 0.05 %, with a period longer than a decade. Analyses of the ERBS/ERBE data set do not support the Wilson and Mordvinor analyses approach because it used the Nimbus-7 data set which exhibited a significant ACR response shift of 0.7 Wm-2

Lee, Robert Benjamin, III↗
NASA NTRS1990

Trends and individual differences in response to short-haul fight operations

A survey of airline pilots was undertaken to determine normative patterns and individual differences in mood and sleep during short-haul flight operations. The results revealed that over the course of a typical 2-d trip, pilots experience a decline in positive mood, or activity, and an increase in negative mood, or tension. On layovers, pilots report experiencing sleep of shorter duration and poorer quality than at home. These patterns are very similar to those reported by Gander and Graeber and by Gander et al. using high-fidelity sleep and activity monitoring equipment. Examination of the impact of two personality dimensions extracted from the Jenkins Activity Survey measure of the Type A personality, Achievement Striving and Impatience/Irritability, suggested that Impatience/Irritability may serve as a marker of individuals most likely to experience health-related problems on trips. Achievement Striving may serve as a predictor of performance in crew settings.

Aircraft↗
NASA NTRS2005

Trends from the Long-term Data Record and Models: What Do They Tell Us About our Ability to Predict Ozone Recovery?

Our industrial society has performed an experiment on the stratospheric ozone layer over the last several decades. The initial part of this experiment was the rapidly increasing release of halogen-containing compounds that carry chlorine and bromine to the stratosphere where they can cause a loss of ozone. The present part of this experiment is the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, which has led to a leveling off of these halogen compounds and the beginning of their slow removal from the atmosphere. The observation and attribution of ozone response to the halogens has been a particularly important and difficult task because of the impact of solar cycle uv variation, two major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon and Pinatubo), and interannual dynamic variability of the stratosphere. We have run 3 different simulations of the chemistry and transport of ozone and the minor constituents that affect ozone to help evaluate our understanding of the causes of ozone change and to assess our ability to predict ozone recovery with the removal of halogens from the stratosphere. One simulation, using the Goddard chemical transport model (CTM), had interannual variability in the dynamics for the entire 50 years of simulation, which included the past 3 decades (1974-2004) and the next 2 decades to 2022. The other two simulations used the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM with no dynamical variability: one used a the winds and temperatures from a repeating warm Arctic winter and the other used a repeating cold Arctic winter. All simulations included the effects of aerosol surfaces from volcanic eruptions on chemical reactions as well as the variation in UV over the 11-year solar cycle.

Strahan, Susan↗
NASA NTRS2005

Extracting trends from two decades of microgravity macromolecular crystallization history

Since the 1980s hundreds of macromolecular crystal growth experiments have been performed in the reduced acceleration environment of an orbiting spacecraft. Significant enhancements in structural knowledge have resulted from X-ray diffraction of the crystals grown. Similarly, many samples have shown no improvement or degradation in comparison to those grown on the ground. A complex series of interrelated factors affect these experiments and by building a comprehensive archive of the results it was aimed to identify factors that result in success and those that result in failure. Specifically, it was found that dedicated microgravity missions increase the chance of success when compared with those where crystallization took place as a parasitic aspect of the mission. It was also found that the chance of success could not be predicted based on any discernible property of the macromolecule available to us.

Review↗
NASA NTRS2006

Compilation of a Global Emission Inventory from 1980 to 2000 for Global Model Simulations of the Long-term Trend of Tropospheric Aerosols

The approach to create a comprehensive emission inventory for the time period 1980 to 2000 is described in this paper. We have recently compiled an emission database, which we will use for a 21 year simulation of tropospheric aerosols with the GOCART model. Particular attention was paid to the time-dependent SO2, black carbon and organic carbon aerosol emissions. For the emission of SO2 from sporadically erupting volcanoes, we assembled emission data from the Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution, using the VEI to derive the volcanic cloud height and the SO2 amount, and amended this dataset by the SO2 emission data from the TOMS instrument when available. 3-dimensional aircraft emission data was obtained for a number of years from the AEAP project, converted from burned fuel to SO2 and interpolated to each year, taking the sparsity of the flight patterns into account. Other anthropogenic SO2 emissions are based on gridded emissions from the EDGAR 2000 database (excluding sources from aircraft, biomass burning and international ship traffic), which were scaled to individual years with country/regional based emission inventories. Gridded SO2 emissions from international ship traffic for 2000 and the scaling factors for other years are from [Eyring et al., 2005]. We used gridded anthropogenic black and organic carbon emissions for 1996 [Bond et al., 2005], again excluding aircraft, biomass burning and ship sources. These emissions were scaled with regional based emission inventories from 1980 to 2000 to derive gridded emissions for each year. The biomass burning emissions are based on a climatology, which is scaled with regional scaling factors derived from the TOMS aerosol index and the AVHRR/ASTR fire counts to each year [Duncan et al., 2003]. Details on the integration of the information from the various sources will be provided and the distribution patterns and total emissions in the final product will be discussed.

Diehl, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Change in ozone trends at southern high latitudes

Long-term ozone variations at 60-70degS in spring are investigated using ground-based and satellite measurements. Strong positive correlation is shown between year-to-year variations of ozone and temperature in the Antarctic collar region in Septembers and Octobers. Based on this relationship, the effect of year-to-year variations in vortex dynamics has been filtered out. This process results in an ozone time series that shows increasing springtime ozone losses over the Antarctic until the mid-1990s. Since approximately 1997 the ozone losses have leveled off. The analysis confirms that this change is consistent across all instruments and is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. This analysis quantifies the beginning of the recovery of the ozone hole, which is expected from the leveling off of stratospheric halogen loading due to the ban on CFCs and other halocarbons initiated by the Montreal Protocol.

Yang, E.-S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Current Characteristics and Trends of the Tracked Satellite Population in the Human Space Flight Regime

Since the end of the Apollo program in 1972, human space flight has been restricted to altitudes below 600 km above the Earth s surface with most missions restricted to a ceiling below 400 km. An investigation of the tracked satellite population transiting and influencing the human space flight regime during the past 11 years (equivalent to a full solar cycle) has recently been completed. The overall effects of satellite breakups and solar activity are typically less pronounced in the human space flight regime than other regions of low Earth orbit. As of January 2006 nearly 1500 tracked objects resided in or traversed the human space flight regime, although two-thirds of these objects were in orbits of moderate to high eccentricity, significantly reducing their effect on human space flight safety. During the period investigated, the spatial density of tracked objects in the 350-400 km altitude regime of the International Space Station demonstrated a steady decline, actually decreasing by 50% by the end of the period. On the other hand, the region immediately above 600 km experienced a significant increase in its population density. This regime is important for future risk assessments, since this region represents the reservoir of debris which will influence human space flight safety in the future. The paper seeks to put into sharper perspective the risks posed to human space flight by the tracked satellite population, as well as the influences of solar activity and the effects of compliance with orbital debris mitigation guidelines on human space flight missions. Finally, the methods and successes of characterizing the population of smaller debris at human space flight regimes are addressed.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗