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At least 901 records · Page 50

Hanging by a thread? Forests and drought

Trees are the living foundations on which most terrestrial biodiversity is built. Central to the success of trees are their woody bodies, which connect their elevated photosynthetic canopies with the essential belowground activities of water and nutrient acquisition. The slow construction of these carbon-dense, woody skeletons leads to a slow generation time, leaving trees and forests highly susceptible to rapid changes in climate. Other long-lived, sessile organisms such as corals appear to be poorly equipped to survive rapid changes, which raises questions about the vulnerability of contemporary forests to future climate change. The emerging view that, similar to corals, tree species have rather inflexible damage thresholds, particularly in terms of water stress, is especially concerning. This Review examines recent progress in our understanding of how the future looks for forests growing in a hotter and drier atmosphere.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Online MCMC Thinning with Kernelized Stein Discrepancy

A fundamental challenge in Bayesian inference is efficient representation of a target distribution. Many nonparametric approaches do so by sampling a large number of points using variants of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Here, we propose an MCMC variant that retains only those posterior samples which exceed a kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD) threshold, which we call KSD thinning. We establish the convergence and complexity trade-offs for several settings of KSD thinning as a function of the KSD threshold parameter, sample size, and other problem parameters. We provide experimental comparisons against other online nonparametric Bayesian methods that generate low-complexity posterior representations. We observe superior consistency/complexity trade-offs across a range of settings including MCMC sampling on two Bayesian inference problems from the biological sciences, and 10 × inference speedup and storage reduction for Bayesian neural networks with no loss of accuracy and no increase in training time. Our code is available at https://github.com/colehawkins/KSD-Thinning.

Bayesian inference↗

Electron collisional excitation cross-section measurements and modeling for select Ni-like to Ge-like gold transitions

We have experimentally determined the electron collisional excitation cross-sections for several 3d→4f and 3d→5f excitations in Ni- to Ge-like Au at energies of ~ 0.4, 1, 2, and 3 keV above threshold energy, E T , for the 3d→4f excitations ( E T ~ 2.5 keV) and ~ 0.2, 1, and 2 keV above threshold energy for the 3d→5f excitations ( E T ~ 3.3 keV). The cross-section measurements are possible by using the GSFC micro-calorimeter to record emission spectra from beam plasmas created in the Livermore EBIT-I electron beam ion trap. The cross-sections are experimentally determined from the ratio of the measured intensities of the collisionally excited lines to the intensities of the radiative recombination lines in monoenergetic electron distribution EBIT-I plasmas. The effects of polarization and Auger processes in the beam plasmas are accounted for in the cross-section determination. Experimentally determined cross-sections are compared with those from HULLAC, DWS, and FAC calculations. Finally, the measurements exhibit significant differences with the calculations of these excitation cross-sections.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

A toolbox for $$q_{T}$$ and 0-jettiness subtractions at $$\hbox {N}^3\hbox {LO}$$

We derive the leading-power singular terms at three loops for both $q_T$ and 0-jettiness, $T_0$, for generic color-singlet processes. Our results provide the complete set of differential subtraction terms for $q_T$ and $T_0$ subtractions at N 3 LO, which are an important ingredient for matching N 3 LO calculations with parton showers. We obtain the full three-loop structure of the relevant beam and soft functions, which are necessary ingredients for the resummation of $q_T$ and $T_0$ at N 3 LL' and N 4 LL order, and which constitute important building blocks in other contexts as well. The nonlogarithmic boundary coefficients of the beam functions, which contribute to the integrated subtraction terms, are not yet fully known at three loops. By exploiting consistency relations between different factorization limits, we derive results for the $q_T$ and $T_0$ beam function coefficients at N 3 LO in the z→1 threshold limit, and we also estimate the size of the unknown terms beyond threshold.

Physics↗

Coupling between Alfven wave and Kelvin-Helmholtz waves in the low latitude boundary layer

The Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability of magnetohydrodynamic surface waves at the low latitude boundary layer is examined using both an eigenfrequency analysis and a time-dependent wave simulation. The analysis includes the effects of sheared flow and Alfven velocity gradient. When the magnetosheath flows are perpendicular to the ambient magnetic field direction, unstable KH waves that propagate obliquely to the sheared flow direction occur at the sheared flow surface when the Alfv\'en Mach number is higher than an instability threshold. Including a shear transition layer between the magnetosphere and magnetosheath leads to secondary KH waves (driven by the sheared flow) that are coupled to the resonant surface Alfven wave. There are remarkable differences between the primary and the secondary KH waves including wave frequency, the growth rate, and the ratio between transverse and the compressional component. The secondary KH wave energy is concentrated near the shear Alfven wave frequency at the magnetosheath with a lower frequency than the primary KH waves. Although the growth rate of the secondary KH waves is lower than the primary KH waves, the threshold condition is lower, so it is expected that these types of waves will dominate at lower Mach number. Because the transverse component of the secondary KH waves is stronger than the primary KH waves, more efficient wave energy transfer from the boundary layer to the inner magnetosphere is also predicted.

Alfven wave↗

Whetstone v.0.9.2

Whetstone is a deep learning software library for spiking/binary threshold neuromorphic hardware. Built to integrate with Keras models, Whetstone provides a collection of layers, callbacks, and utility functions designed to allow the training of integrate-and-fire neurons rather than traditional analog activation functions (e.g. rectified linear units). Generally, training a network for neuromorphic hardware is challenging due to the discontinuity of the activation function. Whetstone overcomes this challenge by using ever-closer continuous approximations of a threshold activation, modified during training time. This allows rapid and consistent training for ultra-low powered neuromorphic hardware.

Severa, William↗

SNL-NJOY-2016

This is a wrapper around the LANL NJOY-2016 code that interfaces with extended code capabilities and minor modification of the LANL NJOY-2016 code that supports modeling radiation damage to materials. The NJOY Nuclear Data Processing System is a modular computer code designed to read evaluated data in ENDF format, transform the data in various ways, and output the results as libraries designed to be used in various applications. The wrapper provided here permits Sandia-specific control parameters to be used in the input data file. The modifications incorporated here enhance the ability of NJOY to address material damage response functions for many materials, e.g. to include the NRT and arc-dpa forms of the damage energy in addition to the default NJOY-2016 implementation of the sharp-threshold Kinchin-Pease threshold energy treatment. All of the modifications provided here are being made available to the GitHub-based NJOY-2016 code. As useful enhancements found here are incorporated into the baseline NJOY-2016 code, they will be eliminated from this version so as to maintain our compatibility with the baseline NJOY-2016 code. SAND2020-13060 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA00035

Griffin, Patrick↗

A Lagrangian Study of Interfaces at the Edges of Cumulus Clouds

Abstract Interfaces at the edge of an idealized, nonprecipitating, warm cloud are studied using direct numerical simulation (DNS) complemented with a Lagrangian particle tracking routine. Once a shell has formed, four zones can be distinguished: the cloud core, visible shell, invisible shell, and the environment. The union of the visible and invisible regions is the shell commonly referred to in literature. The boundary between the invisible shell and the environment is the turbulent–nonturbulent interface (TNTI), which is typically not considered in cloud studies. Three million particles were seeded homogeneously across the domain and properties were recorded along individual trajectories. The results demonstrate that the traditional cloud boundary (separating cloudy and noncloudy regions using thresholds applied on liquid condensate or updraft velocity) are some distance away from the TNTI. Furthermore, there is no dynamic difference between the traditional liquid-condensate boundary and the region extending to the TNTI. However, particles crossing the TNTI exhibit a sharp jump in enstrophy and a smooth increase in buoyancy. The traditional cloud boundary coincides with the location of minimum buoyancy in the shell. The shell premixes the entraining and detraining air and analysis reveals a highly skewed picture of entrainment and detrainment at the traditional cloud boundary. A preferential entrainment of particles with velocity and specific humidity higher than the mean values in the shell is observed. Large-eddy simulation of a more realistic setup detects an interface with similar properties using the same thresholds as in the DNS, indicating that the DNS results extrapolate beyond their idealized conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Raindrop Breakup Parameterizations Using Disdrometer Observations

In this work, an intercomparison of raindrop mean diameter frequency distribution (RDFD) is performed for numerical simulations of precipitating cloud systems using an array of models and microphysics schemes. This includes results from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) double-moment microphysics, the Hebrew University Cloud Model bin microphysics (HUCM) interfaced to the RAMS parent model, and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the Thompson, Morrison, double-moment 6-class (WDM6), and National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) double-moment schemes. Simulations are examined with respect to the raindrop size distribution (DSD) volume-number mean diameter (D m ) and intercept parameter (N w ). When compared to a suite of disdrometer observations, the RDFD resulting from each microphysics scheme exhibits varying degrees of mean drop size constraints and peaks in the frequency distribution of D m . A more detailed investigation of the peaked RDFD from the RAMS simulations suggests that the parameterization of raindrop collisional breakup can impose strong limitations on the evolution of simulated drop growth. As such, a summary and comparison of the drop breakup parameterizations among the aforementioned microphysics schemes is presented. While some drop breakup parameterizations are adjusted toward the observations by modifying the threshold diameter for the onset of breakup, this study explores the use of a modified maximum breakup efficiency. This method permits the parameterization to retain its threshold breakup diameter, while limiting the strength of drop breakup and permitting a broader range of drop sizes. As a result, the simulated mean drop sizes are in better agreement with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the Roles of Convective Trigger Functions in the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in the NCAR CAM5

The wrong diurnal cycle of precipitation is a common weakness of current global climate models (GCMs). To improve the simulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation and understand what physical processes control it, we test a convective trigger function described in Xie et al. (2019) with additional optimizations in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The revised trigger function consists of three modifications: 1) replacing the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) trigger with a dynamic CAPE (dCAPE) trigger, 2) allowing convection to originate above the top of planetary boundary layer (i.e., the unrestricted air parcel launch level - ULL), and 3) optimizing the entrainment rate and threshold value of the dynamic CAPE generation rate for convection onset based on observations. Results from 1°-resolution simulations show that the revised trigger can alleviate the long-standing GCM problem of too early maximum precipitation during the day and missing the nocturnal precipitation peak that is observed in many regions, including the U.S. southern Great Plains (SGP). The revised trigger also improves the simulation of the propagation of precipitation systems downstream of the Rockies and the Amazon region. A further composite analysis over the SGP unravels the mechanisms through which the revised trigger affects convection. Additional sensitivity tests show that both the peak time and the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation are sensitive to the entrainment rate and dCAPE threshold values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Essential Role of Westerly Wind Bursts in ENSO Dynamics and Extreme Events Quantified in Model “Wind Stress Shaving” Experiments

Abstract Westerly wind bursts (WWBs)—brief but strong westerly wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific—are believed to play an important role in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, but quantifying their effects is challenging. Here, we investigate the cumulative effects of WWBs on ENSO characteristics, including the occurrence of extreme El Niño events, via modified coupled model experiments within Community Earth System Model (CESM1) in which we progressively reduce the impacts of wind stress anomalies associated with model-generated WWBs. In these “wind stress shaving” experiments we limit momentum transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean above a preset threshold, thus “shaving off” wind bursts. To reduce the tropical Pacific mean state drift, both westerly and easterly wind bursts are removed, although the changes are dominated by WWB reduction. As we impose progressively stronger thresholds, both ENSO amplitude and the frequency of extreme El Niño decrease, and ENSO becomes less asymmetric. The warming center of El Niño shifts westward, indicating less frequent and weaker eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Removing most wind burst–related wind stress anomalies reduces ENSO mean amplitude by 22%. The essential role of WWBs in the development of extreme El Niño events is highlighted by the suppressed eastward migration of the western Pacific warm pool and hence a weaker Bjerknes feedback under wind shaving. Overall, our results reaffirm the importance of WWBs in shaping the characteristics of ENSO and its extreme events and imply that WWB changes with global warming could influence future ENSO.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Temporal light modulation: A phantom array visibility measure

At temporal light modulation (TLM) frequencies between 80 Hz and 20 000 Hz observers may perceive a series of repeated images called the phantom array effect (PAE) when they move their eyes in large saccades across a modulating light source or across a scene lit by the modulating light source. To date, there is no well-established measure for quantifying PAE visibility, but there is growing awareness of the need for one among design professionals and sensitive populations. This paper documents a new measure, the phantom array visibility measure (PAVM), which is based on the results of recent human factors experiments. The measure follows the mathematical underpinning used by the flicker visibility measure and the stroboscopic visibility measure, where the time-domain TLM waveform is converted into its Fourier frequency components; each component is evaluated through a threshold curve of modulation depth, then summed through an equation employing a Minkowski exponent. This scales the PAVM so that a value of 1 indicates a waveform at a threshold visibility in the conditions of the underlying experiment.

Tan, J.↗

Performance-based earthquake early warning for tall buildings

The ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system aims to issue an advance warning to residents on the West Coast of the United States seconds before the ground shaking arrives, if the expected ground shaking exceeds a certain threshold. However, residents in tall buildings may experience much greater motion due to the dynamic response of the buildings. Therefore, there is an ongoing effort to extend ShakeAlert to include the contribution of building response to provide a more accurate estimation of the expected shaking intensity for tall buildings. Currently, the supposedly ideal solution of analyzing detailed finite element models of buildings under predicted ground-motion time histories is not theoretically or practically feasible. The authors have recently investigated existing simple methods to estimate peak floor acceleration (PFA) and determined these simple formulas are not practically suitable. Instead, this article explores another approach by extending the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) to EEW, considering that every component involved in building response prediction is uncertain in the EEW scenario. Additionally, while this idea is not new and has been proposed by other researchers, it has two shortcomings: (1) the simple beam model used for response prediction is prone to modeling uncertainty, which has not been quantified, and (2) the ground motions used for probabilistic demand models are not suitable for EEW applications. In this article, we address these two issues by incorporating modeling errors into the parameters of the beam model and using a new set of ground motions, respectively. We demonstrate how this approach could practically work using data from a 52-story building in downtown Los Angeles. Using the criteria and thresholds employed by previous researchers, we show that if peak ground acceleration (PGA) is accurately estimated, this approach can predict the expected level of human comfort in tall buildings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DeepDist: real-value inter-residue distance prediction with deep residual convolutional network

Abstract Background Driven by deep learning, inter-residue contact/distance prediction has been significantly improved and substantially enhanced ab initio protein structure prediction. Currently, most of the distance prediction methods classify inter-residue distances into multiple distance intervals instead of directly predicting real-value distances. The output of the former has to be converted into real-value distances to be used in tertiary structure prediction. Results To explore the potentials of predicting real-value inter-residue distances, we develop a multi-task deep learning distance predictor (DeepDist) based on new residual convolutional network architectures to simultaneously predict real-value inter-residue distances and classify them into multiple distance intervals. Tested on 43 CASP13 hard domains, DeepDist achieves comparable performance in real-value distance prediction and multi-class distance prediction. The average mean square error (MSE) of DeepDist’s real-value distance prediction is 0.896 Å 2 when filtering out the predicted distance ≥ 16 Å, which is lower than 1.003 Å 2 of DeepDist’s multi-class distance prediction. When distance predictions are converted into contact predictions at 8 Å threshold (the standard threshold in the field), the precision of top L/5 and L/2 contact predictions of DeepDist’s multi-class distance prediction is 79.3% and 66.1%, respectively, higher than 78.6% and 64.5% of its real-value distance prediction and the best results in the CASP13 experiment. Conclusions DeepDist can predict inter-residue distances well and improve binary contact prediction over the existing state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, the predicted real-value distances can be directly used to reconstruct protein tertiary structures better than multi-class distance predictions due to the lower MSE. Finally, we demonstrate that predicting the real-value distance map and multi-class distance map at the same time performs better than predicting real-value distances alone.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A behavior and physiology-based decision support tool to predict thermal comfort and stress in non-pregnant, mid-gestation, and late-gestation sows

Background: Although thermal indices have been proposed for swine, none to our knowledge differentiate by reproductive stage or predict thermal comfort using behavioral and physiological data. The study objective was to develop a behavior and physiology-based decision support tool to predict thermal comfort and stress in multiparous (3.28 ± 0.81) non-pregnant (n = 11), mid-gestation (n = 13), and late-gestation (n = 12) sows. Results: Regression analyses were performed using PROC MIXED in SAS 9.4 to determine the optimal environmental indicator [dry bulb temperature (T DB ) and dew point] of heat stress (HS) in non-pregnant, mid-gestation, and late-gestation sows with respiration rate (RR) and body temperature (T B ) successively used as the dependent variable in a cubic function. A linear relationship was observed for skin temperature (T S ) indicating that TDB rather than the sow HS response impacted TS and so TS was excluded from further analyses. Reproductive stage was significant for all analyses (P < 0.05). Heat stress thresholds for each reproductive stage were calculated using the inflections points of RR for mild HS and T B for moderate and severe HS. Mild HS inflection points differed for non-pregnant, mid-gestation, and late gestation sows and occurred at 25.5, 25.1, and 24.0 °C, respectively. Moderate HS inflection points differed for non-pregnant, mid-gestation, and late gestation sows and occurred at 28.1, 27.8, and 25.5 °C, respectively. Severe HS inflection points were similar for non-pregnant and mid-gestation sows (32.9 °C) but differed for late-gestation sows (30.8 °C). These data were integrated with previously collected behavioral thermal preference data to estimate the T DB that non-pregnant, mid-gestation, and late-gestation sows found to be cool (T DB < T DB preference range), comfortable (T DB = T DB preference range), and warm (T DB preference range < T DB < mild HS). Conclusions: The results of this study provide valuable information about thermal comfort and thermal stress thresholds in sows at three reproductive stages. The development of a behavior and physiology-based decision support tool to predict thermal comfort and stress in non-pregnant, mid-gestation, and late-gestation sows is expected to provide swine producers with a more accurate means of managing sow environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Roundup causes embryonic development failure and alters metabolic pathways and gut microbiota functionality in non-target species

Background: Research around the weedkiller Roundup is among the most contentious of the twenty-first century. Scientists have provided inconclusive evidence that the weedkiller causes cancer and other life-threatening diseases, while industry-paid research reports that the weedkiller has no adverse effect on humans or animals. Much of the controversial evidence on Roundup is rooted in the approach used to determine safe use of chemicals, defined by outdated toxicity tests. We apply a system biology approach to the biomedical and ecological model species Daphnia to quantify the impact of glyphosate and of its commercial formula, Roundup, on fitness, genome-wide transcription and gut microbiota, taking full advantage of clonal reproduction in Daphnia. We then apply machine learning-based statistical analysis to identify and prioritize correlations between genome-wide transcriptional and microbiota changes. Results: We demonstrate that chronic exposure to ecologically relevant concentrations of glyphosate and Roundup at the approved regulatory threshold for drinking water in the US induce embryonic developmental failure, induce significant DNA damage (genotoxicity), and interfere with signaling. Furthermore, chronic exposure to the weedkiller alters the gut microbiota functionality and composition interfering with carbon and fat metabolism, as well as homeostasis. Using the “Reactome,” we identify conserved pathways across the Tree of Life, which are potential targets for Roundup in other species, including liver metabolism, inflammation pathways, and collagen degradation, responsible for the repair of wounds and tissue remodeling. Conclusions: Our results show that chronic exposure to concentrations of Roundup and glyphosate at the approved regulatory threshold for drinking water causes embryonic development failure and alteration of key metabolic functions via direct effect on the host molecular processes and indirect effect on the gut microbiota. The ecological model species Daphnia occupies a central position in the food web of aquatic ecosystems, being the preferred food of small vertebrates and invertebrates as well as a grazer of algae and bacteria. The impact of the weedkiller on this keystone species has cascading effects on aquatic food webs, affecting their ability to deliver critical ecosystem services.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Remote sensing detection enhancement

Big Data in the area of Remote Sensing has been growing rapidly. Remote sensors are used in surveillance, security, traffic, environmental monitoring, and autonomous sensing. Real-time detection of small moving targets using a remote sensor is an ongoing, challenging problem. Since the object is located far away from the sensor, the object often appears too small. The object’s signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) is often very low. Occurrences such as camera motion, moving backgrounds (e.g., rustling leaves), low contrast and resolution of foreground objects makes it difficult to segment out the targeted moving objects of interest. Due to the limited appearance of the target, it is tough to obtain the target’s characteristics such as its shape and texture. Without these characteristics, filtering out false detections can be a difficult task. Detecting these targets, would often require the detector to operate under a low detection threshold. However, lowering the detection threshold could lead to an increase of false alarms. In this paper, the author will introduce a new method that improves the probability to detect low SNR objects, while decreasing the number of false alarms as compared to using the traditional baseline detection technique.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Phase-field simulations of fission gas bubble growth and interconnection in U-(Pu)-Zr nuclear fuel

Abstract The growth and interconnection of fission gas bubbles in the hotter central regions of U-(Pu)-Zr nuclear fuel has been simulated with a phase-field model. The Cahn-Hilliard equation was used to represent the two-phase microstructure, with a single defect species. The volume fraction of the bubble phase and surface area of the bubble-matrix interface were determined during growth and interconnection. Surface area increased rapidly during the initial stages of growth, then slowed and finally decreased as bubble interconnection began and coarsening acted to reduce surface area. The fraction of the bubbles vented to a simulation domain boundary, f V , was quantified as a measure of the microstructure’s interconnectivity and plotted as a function of porosity p . The defect species diffusivity was varied; although changes in diffusivity significantly affected the microstructure, the plots of f V vs. p did not change significantly. The percolation threshold p c was calculated to be approximately 0.26, depending on the assumed diffusivity and using an initial bubble number density based on experimental observations. This is slightly smaller than the percolation threshold for continuum percolation of overlapping 3D spheres. The simulation results were used to parameterize two different engineering-scale swelling models for U-(Pu)-Zr in the nuclear fuel performance code BISON.

Aagesen, Larry K. (ORCID:000000034936676X)↗