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Constraining long‐term model predictions for woody growth using tropical tree rings

The strength and persistence of the tropical carbon sink hinges on the long-term responses of woody growth to climatic variations and increasing CO 2 . However, the sensitivity of tropical woody growth to these environmental changes is poorly understood, leading to large uncertainties in growth predictions. Here, we used tree ring records from a Southeast Asian tropical forest to constrain ED2.2-hydro, a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit vegetation demography. Specifically, we assessed individual-level woody growth responses to historical climate variability and increases in atmospheric CO 2 (C a ). When forced with historical C a , ED2.2-hydro reproduced the magnitude of increases in intercellular CO 2 concentration (a major determinant of photosynthesis) estimated from tree ring carbon isotope records. In contrast, simulated growth trends were considerably larger than those obtained from tree rings, suggesting that woody biomass production efficiency (WBPE = woody biomass production:gross primary productivity) was overestimated by the model. The estimated WBPE decline under increasing C a based on model-data discrepancy was comparable to or stronger than (depending on tree species and size) the observed WBPE changes from a multi-year mature-forest CO 2 fertilization experiment. In addition, we found that ED2.2-hydro generally overestimated climatic sensitivity of woody growth, especially for late-successional plant functional types. The model-data discrepancy in growth sensitivity to climate was likely caused by underestimating WBPE in hot and dry years due to commonly used model assumptions on carbon use efficiency and allocation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to constrain model predictions of individual tree-level growth sensitivity to C a and climate against tropical tree-ring data. Our results suggest that improving model processes related to WBPE is crucial to obtain better predictions of tropical forest responses to droughts and increasing C a . Finally, more accurate parameterization of WBPE will likely reduce the stimulation of woody growth by C a rise predicted by biosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Clusters of COVID ‐19 in long‐term care hospitals and facilities in Japan from 16 January to 9 May 2020

Aim To clarify the association of cluster number and size of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) in long‐term care (LTC) hospitals/facilities, general medical/welfare facilities and non‐medical/welfare facilities with morbidity and mortality in 47 prefectures during 16 January to 9 May 2020 in Japan. Methods Information on COVID‐19 clusters ( n ≥2), and morbidity and mortality of COVID‐19 was collected. Results A total of 381 clusters with 3786 infected cases were collected, accounting for 23.9% of 15 852 cumulated cases on 9 May 2020. Although the cluster number (/10 7 subjects) in LTC hospitals/facilities was significantly smaller compared with those in the other two groups, the cluster size in LTC hospitals/facilities was significantly larger than that in non‐medical/welfare facilities. Cluster numbers in general medical/welfare facilities and in non‐medical/welfare facilities were significantly positively correlated with morbidity (/10 5 ), indicating relatively early identification of clusters in these facilities. Unlike in these facilities, cluster size in LTC hospitals/facilities was significantly positively correlated with morbidity, indicating that clusters in LTC hospitals/facilities were finally identified after already having grown to a large size in areas where infection was prevalent. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that both cluster number and cluster size only in LTC hospitals/facilities were independently associated with higher mortality (≥median 0.64/10 5 subjects) after adjustment. Conclusions Preventive efforts against COVID‐19 outbreaks even at the early phase of the epidemic are critically important in LTC hospitals/facilities, as both the larger number and size of clusters only in LTC hospitals/facilities were independently linked to higher mortality in prefectures in Japan. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2020; 20: 715–719 .

Iritani, Osamu↗

Tetraether archaeal lipids promote long‐term survival in extreme conditions

Abstract The sole unifying feature of the incredibly diverse Archaea is their isoprenoid‐based ether‐linked lipid membranes. Unique lipid membrane composition, including an abundance of membrane‐spanning tetraether lipids, impart resistance to extreme conditions. Many questions remain, however, regarding the synthesis and modification of tetraether lipids and how dynamic changes to archaeal lipid membrane composition support hyperthermophily. Tetraether membranes, termed glycerol dibiphytanyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), are generated by tetraether synthase (Tes) by joining the tails of two bilayer lipids known as archaeol. GDGTs are often further specialized through the addition of cyclopentane rings by GDGT ring synthase (Grs). A positive correlation between relative GDGT abundance and entry into stationary phase growth has been observed, but the physiological impact of inhibiting GDGT synthesis has not previously been reported. Here, we demonstrate that the model hyperthermophile Thermococcus kodakarensis remains viable when Tes (TK2145) or Grs (TK0167) are deleted, permitting phenotypic and lipid analyses at different temperatures. The absence of cyclopentane rings in GDGTs does not impact growth in T. kodakarensis , but an overabundance of rings due to ectopic Grs expression is highly fitness negative at supra‐optimal temperatures. In contrast, deletion of Tes resulted in the loss of all GDGTs, cyclization of archaeol, and loss of viability upon transition to the stationary phase in this model archaea. These results demonstrate the critical roles of highly specialized, dynamic, isoprenoid‐based lipid membranes for archaeal survival at high temperatures.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Mycorrhizal effects on crop yield and soil ecosystem functions in a long‐term tillage and fertilization experiment

Summary It is well understood that agricultural management influences arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, but there is controversy about whether farmers should manage for AM symbiosis. We assessed AM fungal communities colonizing wheat roots for three consecutive years in a long‐term (> 14 yr) tillage and fertilization experiment. Relationships among mycorrhizas, crop performance, and soil ecosystem functions were quantified. Tillage, fertilizers and continuous monoculture all reduced AM fungal richness and shifted community composition toward dominance of a few ruderal taxa. Rhizophagus and Dominikia were depressed by tillage and/or fertilization, and their abundances as well as AM fungal richness correlated positively with soil aggregate stability and nutrient cycling functions across all or no‐tilled samples. In the field, wheat yield was unrelated to AM fungal abundance and correlated negatively with AM fungal richness. In a complementary glasshouse study, wheat biomass was enhanced by soil inoculum from unfertilized, no‐till plots while neutral to depressed growth was observed in wheat inoculated with soils from fertilized and conventionally tilled plots. This study demonstrates contrasting impacts of low‐input and conventional agricultural practices on AM symbiosis and highlights the importance of considering both crop yield and soil ecosystem functions when managing mycorrhizas for more sustainable agroecosystems.

Peng, Zhenling↗

Learning the Temporal Effect in Infrared Thermal Videos With Long Short-Term Memory for Quality Prediction in Resistance Spot Welding

With the advances of sensing technology, in-situ infrared thermal videos can be collected from Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) processes. Each video records the formulation process of a weld nugget. The nugget evolution creates a “temporal effect” across the frames, which can be leveraged for real-time, nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of the weld quality. Currently, quality prediction with imaging data mainly focuses on optical feature extraction with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) but does not make the most of such temporal effect. In this study, pixels corresponding to critical locations on the weld nugget surface are extracted from a video to form multivariate time series (MTS). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is used in MTS processing to remove noisy signals related to uninformative frames. A Stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is developed to learn from the processed MTS and then predicts weld nugget size and thickness in real-time NDE. Results from a case study on RSW of Boron steel demonstrates the improvement in prediction accuracy and computational time with the proposed method, as compared to CNN-based weld quality prediction.

Guo, Shenghan↗

Short-Term Stable Isotope Probing of Proteins Reveals Taxa Incorporating Inorganic Carbon in a Hot Spring Microbial Mat

The upper green layer of the chlorophototrophic microbial mats associated with the alkaline siliceous hot springs of Yellowstone National Park consists of oxygenic cyanobacteria ( Synechococcus spp.), anoxygenic Roseiflexus spp., and several other anoxygenic chlorophototrophs. Synechococcus spp. are believed to be the main fixers of inorganic carbon (C i ), but some evidence indicates that Roseiflexus spp. also contribute to inorganic carbon fixation during low-light, anoxic morning periods. Contributions of other phototrophic taxa have not been investigated. In order to follow the pathway of C i incorporation into different taxa, mat samples were incubated with [ 13 C]bicarbonate for 3 h during the early-morning, low-light anoxic period. Extracted proteins were treated with trypsin and analyzed by mass spectrometry, leading to peptide identifications and peptide isotopic profile signatures containing evidence of 13 C label incorporation. A total of 25,483 peptides, corresponding to 7,221 proteins, were identified from spectral features and associated with mat taxa by comparison to metagenomic assembly sequences. A total of 1,417 peptides, derived from 720 proteins, were detectably labeled with 13 C. Most 13 C-labeled peptides were derived from proteins of Synechococcus spp. and Roseiflexus spp. Chaperones and proteins of carbohydrate metabolism were most abundantly labeled. Proteins associated with photosynthesis, C i fixation, and N 2 fixation were also labeled in Synechococcus spp. Importantly, most proteins of the 3-hydroxypropionate bi-cycle for C i fixation in Roseiflexus spp. were labeled, establishing that members of this taxocene contribute to C i fixation. Other taxa showed much lower [ 13 C]bicarbonate incorporation. IMPORTANCE Yellowstone hot spring mats have been studied as natural models for understanding microbial community ecology and as modern analogs of stromatolites, the earliest community fossils on Earth. Stable-isotope probing of proteins (Pro-SIP) permitted short-term interrogation of the taxa that are involved in the important process of light-driven C i fixation in this highly active community and will be useful in linking other metabolic processes to mat taxa. Here, evidence is presented that Roseiflexus spp., which use the 3-hydroxypropionate bi-cycle, are active in C i fixation. Because this pathway imparts a lower degree of selection of isotopically heavy C i than does the Calvin-Benson-Bassham cycle, the results suggest a mechanism to explain why the natural abundance of 13 C in mat biomass is greater than expected if only the latter pathway were involved. Understanding how mat community members influence the 13 C/ 12 C ratios of mat biomass will help geochemists interpret the 13 C/ 12 C ratios of organic carbon in the fossil record.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Shotgun metagenomics analysis indicates Bradyrhizobium spp. as the predominant genera for heavy metal resistance and bioremediation in a long-term heavy metal-contaminated ecosystem

ABSTRACT Ten soil cores were collected from the long-term heavy metal-contaminated Savannah River Site (SRS) and studied using shotgun metagenomics. In-line with our previous reports, Bradyrhizobium spp. dominated the SRS soils, and thus we recommend that SRS bioremediation studies target the Bradyrhizobium genus.

Agashe, Rohan↗

Genome sequences of four novel Endozoicomonas strains associated with a tropical octocoral in a long-term aquarium facility

ABSTRACT We report the genome sequences of four Endozoicomonas sp. strains isolated from the octocoral Litophyton maintained long term at an aquarium facility. Our analysis reveals the coding potential for versatile polysaccharide metabolism; Type II, III, IV, and VI secretion systems; and the biosynthesis of novel ribosomally synthesized and post-translationally modified peptides.

Marques, Matilde (ORCID:0000000194430893)↗

Statistical Treatment of Inverse Problems Constrained by Differential Equations-based Models with Stochastic Terms

This paper introduces a statistical treatment of inverse problems constrained by models with stochastic terms. The solution of the forward problem is given by a distribution represented numerically by an ensemble of simulations. The goal is to formulate the inverse problem, in particular the objective function, to find the closest forward distribution (i.e., the output of the stochastic forward problem) that best explains the distribution of the observations in a certain metric. We use proper scoring rules, a concept employed in statistical forecast verification, namely energy, variogram, and hybrid (i.e., combination of the two) scores. We study the performance of the proposed formulation in the context of two applications: a coefficient field inversion for subsurface flow governed by an elliptic partial differential equation with a stochastic source and a parameter inversion for power grid governed by differential-algebraic equations. In both cases we show that the variogram and the hybrid scores produce better parameter inversion results than does the energy score, whereas the energy score leads to better probabilistic predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Short-term exposure to elevated suspended sediment increases oxygen uptake of gilled larval Eastern Hellbender ( Cryptobranchus alleganiensis ) salamanders

Freshwater ecosystems are increasingly impacted by anthropogenic elevated levels of suspended sediment that may negatively affect aquatic organisms, including salamanders. Although increasing fine sediment in streams has been suggested as a reason for population declines, to date no study has empirically assessed the effect of suspended sediment on gilled larval Eastern Hellbenders (Cryptobranchus alleganiensis (Sonnini de Manoncourt and Latreille, 1801)), a critical life-history stage and a species of conservation concern. We used custom respirometers to elucidate effects of suspended sediments on larval Eastern Hellbender oxygen uptake in trials conducted in situ in Georgia (USA) streams. Mean oxygen uptake increased and was significantly higher in trials when larval salamanders were exposed to suspended sediment (mean = 5.06 mg O 2 /L for 800 mg/L of sediment treatment vs. 2.25 mg O 2 /L for 0.00 mg/L of sediment control). This may indicate elevated physiological stress in response to short-term exposure to suspended sediments. Qualitatively, individuals in both groups exhibited rocking behavior in response to low oxygen (hypoxia), albeit at different frequencies (sediment exposure = 7.6 rocks/min and control = 2.1 rocks/min). Larval salamanders may be able to temporarily compensate for low oxygen through increased rocking behavior when high suspended sediment loads are present, with future respirometry research needed.

hypoxia↗

Long-Term Effects of Humidity on Stainless Steel Pitting in Sea Salt Exposures

Ground 304 stainless steel (SS) samples were exposed to sea salt particles at 35 °C and two relative humidity (RH) levels for durations ranging from 1 week to 2 years. For all exposure times, pit number density and total pit volume at 40% RH were observed to be considerably greater than those at 76% RH. Statistical analysis of distributions of pit populations for both RH conditions showed that pit number density and total pit volume increased rapidly at first but slowed as exposure time increased. Cross-hatched features were observed in the 40% RH pits while ellipsoidal, faceted pits were observed at 76% RH. Optical profilometry indicated that most pits were not hemispherical. X-ray tomography provided evidence of undercutting and fissures. Piecewise curve fitting modeled the 40% RH data closely, predicting that corrosion damage would eventually plateau. However, a similar treatment of the 76% RH data suggested that corrosion damage would continuously increase, which implied that the piecewise power-law fit was limited in its ability to model atmospheric corrosion generally. Based on these observations, the operative mechanisms determining long-term corrosion behavior were hypothesized to be different depending on the RH of exposure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Long-Term Stability of Mullite and Magnesia-encased Ag|Ag + Reference Electrodes in Molten MgCl 2 -KCl-NaCl

In this study, the stability of Ag|Ag + molten chloride reference electrodes was studied using mullite and magnesia tubes as reference electrode membrane materials in molten MgCl 2 -KCl-NaCl for continuous immersion up to 31 d. Two electrochemical methods were used to characterize the long-term performance of the reference electrodes at 500 °C in an inert atmosphere using a Mg rod as the working electrode: open circuit potential (OCP) and onset of Mg(II) reduction as measured by cyclic voltammetry (CV). There was only a 3% difference between the average OCP measured versus the mullite and MgO reference electrodes. Potential drift was higher for mullite (−1.34 mV d −1 ) than MgO (0.22 mV d −1 ). But both drift rates were very low compared to the OCP data standard deviation, indicating that no significant drift was measured for us to 31 d.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Long-Term Stability of Ferri-/Ferrocyanide as an Electroactive Component for Redox Flow Battery Applications: On the Origin of Apparent Capacity Fade

We assess the suitability of potassium ferri-/ferrocyanide as an electroactive species for long-term utilization in aqueous organic redox flow batteries. A series of electrochemical and chemical characterization experiments was performed to distinguish between structural decomposition and apparent capacity fade of ferri-/ferrocyanide solutions used in the capacity-limiting side of a flow battery. Our results indicate that, in contrast with previous reports, no structural decomposition of ferri-/ferrocyanide occurs at tested pH values as high as 14 in the dark or in diffuse indoor light. Instead, an apparent capacity fade takes place due to a chemical reduction of ferricyanide to ferrocyanide, via chemical oxygen evolution reaction. We find that this parasitic process can be further exacerbated by carbon electrodes, with apparent capacity fade rates at pH 14 increasing with an increased ratio of carbon electrode surface area to ferricyanide in solution. Based on these results, we report a set of operating conditions that enables the long-duration cycling of alkaline ferri-/ferrocyanide electrolytes and demonstrate how apparent capacity fade rates can be engineered by the initial system setup. If protected from direct exposure to light, the structural stability of ferri-/ferrocyanide anions allows for their practical deployment as electroactive species in long duration energy storage applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Improving the Long-term Cycle Performance of xLi 2 MnO 3 ·(1-x)LiMeO 2 /Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 Cells via Prelithiation and Electrolyte Engineering

Toward the development of high energy density and long lifetime batteries for behind-the-meter storage (BTMS) applications, Li- and Mn-rich layered oxide cathode (xLi 2 MnO 3 ·(1-x)LiMeO 2 , Me = Ni, Mn, and etc., LMR-NM) and Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 (LTO) anode system was examined. To mitigate the major degradation mechanisms at each electrode (i.e., loss of Li inventory (LLI) at the anode and transition metal dissolution and oxygen release at the cathode), two approaches were taken—prelithiating the LTO electrode and varying the electrolyte solvent compositions. The effect of prelithiation and electrolyte engineering on the long-term cycle performance of LMR-NM/LTO cells were systematically evaluated via electrochemical analyses and post-mortem characterizations. By using a prelithiated LTO anode and supplying additional Li to the system, the capacity retention of LMR-NM/LTO system was improved. The degree of enhancement was dependent on the types of electrolytes used, as their decomposition products determined the level of LLI. With increased capacity retention, however, the cathode was utilized to a greater extent, resulting in more severe loss of the cathode active material. Thus, all degradation mechanisms should be considered comprehensively when designing high performance LMR-NM/LTO cells to account for their complex interplay.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Quantifying Sources of Voltage Decay in Long-Term Durability Testing for PEM Water Electrolysis

Meeting a competitive 1$/kg hydrogen cost target for polymer electrolyte membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) will require advances to significantly reduce capital costs and precious metal catalyst usage, while simultaneously enabling 40,000–80,000 h stack lifetimes under dynamic use conditions. Minimizing cell voltage decay rates is therefore a key goal for PEMWE, although the fundamental processes governing voltage decay are not yet well understood. Here we present a quantitative approach to analyze the contributions to voltage decay in long-term PEMWE testing using polarization curves, impedance spectroscopy, and post-mortem electron microscopy. We apply this approach to analyze a 28 μV h −1 decay rate observed in a 4000 h durability test of a cell using 0.5 mg cm −2 total PGM catalyst loading (0.4 mg Ir cm −2 anode, 0.1 mg Pt cm −2 cathode) and 3 A cm −2 current density. We also analyze a comparative series of 1000 h tests under different conditions. These results provide valuable insights into anode catalyst degradation processes, as well as transferrable methodology for PEMWE durability research.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Quantifying Sources of Long-Term Voltage Decay for Rutile Iridium Oxide Anodes in Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolysis

To achieve aggressive hydrogen cost targets for proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE), it is necessary to develop catalyst systems that reduce precious metal loadings while maintaining performance over extended operation. While amorphous iridium (Ir) -based catalysts exhibit high initial activity, their long-term stability remains a key limitation. In this study, the behavior of a rutile IrO2 catalyst is investigated over 4000 h of durability testing and compared to past efforts evaluating a more amorphous material. This study finds that rutile IrO2 results in a smaller decay rate (4.9 ..mu..V h-1) than an amorphous catalyst (28 ..mu..V h-1); additionally, the rutile IrO2 results in a smaller degree of Ir migration (20% to the membrane and cathode) than an amorphous catalyst (35%). This research emphasizes rutile IrO2 as a promising avenue for the development of durable, low-iridium anodes that can meet lifetime and cost targets for next-generation electrolyzer systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Long-term Multimodal Recording Reveals Epigenetic Adaptation Routes in Dormant Breast Cancer Cells

Patients with estrogen receptor–positive breast cancer receive adjuvant endocrine therapies (ET) that delay relapse by targeting clinically undetectable micrometastatic deposits. Yet, up to 50% of patients relapse even decades after surgery through unknown mechanisms likely involving dormancy. To investigate genetic and transcriptional changes underlying tumor awakening, we analyzed late relapse patients and longitudinally profiled a rare cohort treated with long-term neoadjuvant ETs until progression. Next, we developed an in vitro evolutionary study to record the adaptive strategies of individual lineages in unperturbed parallel experiments. Our data demonstrate that ETs induce nongenetic cell state transitions into dormancy in a stochastic subset of cells via epigenetic reprogramming. Single lineages with divergent phenotypes awaken unpredictably in the absence of recurrent genetic alterations. Targeting the dormant epigenome shows promising activity against adapting cancer cells. Overall, this study uncovers the contribution of epigenetic adaptation to the evolution of resistance to ETs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

On the Correspondence between Seasonal Forecast Biases and Long-Term Climate Biases in Sea Surface Temperature

In this paper, the correspondence between mean sea surface temperature (SST) biases in retrospective seasonal forecasts (hindcasts) and long-term climate simulations from five global climate models is examined to diagnose the degree to which systematic SST biases develop on seasonal time scales. The hindcasts are from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and the climate simulations are from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The analysis suggests that most robust climatological SST biases begin to form within 6 months of a realistically initialized integration, although the growth rate varies with location, time, and model. In regions with large biases, interannual variability and ensemble spread is much smaller than the climatological bias. Additional ensemble hindcasts of the Community Earth System Model with a different initialization method suggest that initial conditions do matter for the initial bias growth, but the overall global bias patterns are similar after 6 months. A hindcast approach is more suitable to study biases over the tropics and sub-tropics than over the extra-tropics because of smaller initial biases and faster bias growth. The rapid emergence of SST biases makes it likely that fast processes with times scales shorter than the seasonal time scales in the atmosphere and upper ocean are responsible for a substantial part of the climatological SST biases. Studying the growth of biases may provide important clues to the causes and ultimately the amelioration of these biases. Further, initialized seasonal hindcasts can profitably be used in the development of high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗