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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

High fidelity multiphysics tightly coupled model for a lead cooled fast reactor concept and application to statistical calculation of hot channel factors

A tightly coupled multiphysics code system is established using the MOOSE framework for hot channel factor (HCF) evaluation on a Lead Fast Reactor (LFR) concept. The coupled system is driven by the Griffin multiphysics coupling capability under which the MOOSE Heat Transfer module and NekRS computational fluid dynamics solver are coupled for conjugate heat transfer using the Cardinal application. The coupled capability is demonstrated on an LFR assembly model based on materials and geometry of a prototypical lead-cooled fast reactor design by Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC. Moreover, the work integrates the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Stochastic Tools Module (STM) to perform calculations for statistical analysis of HCF. Furthermore, the coupling strategy and workflow demonstrated in this paper is not only useful for predicting accurate hot channel factors for different kinds of advanced reactors but also for other engineering applications such as control rod worth assessment, generation of high-fidelity database for Artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) training, design optimization and multi-resolution modeling.

Cardinal↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated Resonance Fitting for Nuclear Data Evaluation

Global and national efforts to deliver high-quality nuclear data to users have a wide-ranging impact, affecting applications in national security, reactor operations, basic science, medicine, and more. Cross section evaluation is a major part of this effort, combining theory and experimentation to produce recommended values and uncertainties for reaction probabilities. Resonance region evaluation is a specialized type of nuclear data evaluation that can require significant manual effort and months of time from expert scientists. In this article, non-convex non-linear optimization methods are combined with concepts of inferential statistics to infer a resonance model from experimental data in an automated manner that is not dependent on prior evaluation(s). This methodology aims to enhance the workflow of a resonance evaluator by minimizing time, effort, and the potential for bias from prior assumptions, while enhancing reproducibility and documentation, thereby addressing well-known challenges in the field.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unstructured clinical notes within the 24 hours since admission predict short, mid & long-term mortality in adult ICU patients

Mortality prediction for intensive care unit (ICU) patients is crucial for improving outcomes and efficient utilization of resources. Accessibility of electronic health records (EHR) has enabled data-driven predictive modeling using machine learning. However, very few studies rely solely on unstructured clinical notes from the EHR for mortality prediction. In this work, we propose a framework to predict short, mid, and long-term mortality in adult ICU patients using unstructured clinical notes from the MIMIC III database, natural language processing (NLP), and machine learning (ML) models. Depending on the statistical description of the patients’ length of stay, we define the short-term as 48-hour and 4-day period, the mid-term as 7-day and 10-day period, and the long-term as 15-day and 30-day period after admission. We found that by only using clinical notes within the 24 hours of admission, our framework can achieve a high area under the receiver operating characteristics (AU-ROC) score for short, mid and long-term mortality prediction tasks. The test AU-ROC scores are 0.87, 0.83, 0.83, 0.82, 0.82, and 0.82 for 48-hour, 4-day, 7-day, 10-day, 15-day, and 30-day period mortality prediction, respectively. We also provide a comparative study among three types of feature extraction techniques from NLP: frequency-based technique, fixed embedding-based technique, and dynamic embedding-based technique. Lastly, we provide an interpretation of the NLP-based predictive models using feature-importance scores.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning and ligand binding predictions: A review of data, methods, and obstacles

We report that computational predictions of ligand binding is a difficult problem, with more accurate methods being extremely computationally expensive. The use of machine learning for drug binding predictions could possibly leverage the use of biomedical big data in exchange for time-intensive simulations. This paper reviews current trends in the use of machine learning for drug binding predictions, data sources to develop machine learning algorithms, and potential problems that may lead to overfitting and ungeneralizable models. A few popular datasets that can be used to develop virtual high-throughput screening models are characterized using spatial statistics to quantify potential biases. We can see from evaluating some common benchmarks that good performance correlates with models with high-predicted bias scores and models with low bias scores do not have much predictive power. A better understanding of the limits of available data sources and how to fix them will lead to more generalizable models that will lead to novel drug discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pore-resolved investigation of turbulent open channel flow over a randomly packed permeable sediment bed

Pore-resolved direct numerical simulations are performed to investigate the interactions between streamflow turbulence and groundwater flow through a randomly packed porous sediment bed for three permeability Reynolds numbers, Re K = 2.56 , 5.17 and 8.94, representative of natural stream or river systems. Time–space averaging is used to quantify the Reynolds stress, form-induced stress, mean flow and shear penetration depths, and mixing length at the sediment–water interface (SWI). Here, the mean flow and shear penetration depths increase with Re K and are found to be nonlinear functions of non-dimensional permeability. The peaks and significant values of the Reynolds stresses, form-induced stresses, and pressure variations are shown to occur in the top layer of the bed, which is also confirmed by conducting simulations of just the top layer as roughness elements over an impermeable wall. The probability distribution functions (p.d.f.s) of normalized local bed stress are found to collapse for all Reynolds numbers, and their root-mean-square fluctuations are assumed to follow logarithmic correlations. The fluctuations in local bed stress and resultant drag and lift forces on sediment grains are mainly a result of the top layer; their p.d.f.s are symmetric with heavy tails, and can be well represented by a non-Gaussian model fit. The bed stress statistics and the pressure data at the SWI potentially can be used in providing better boundary conditions in modelling of incipient motion and reach-scale transport in the hyporheic zone.

turbulence simulation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Remembering the Work of Phillip L. Geissler: A Coda to His Scientific Trajectory

Phillip L. Geissler made important contributions to the statistical mechanics of biological polymers, heterogeneous materials, and chemical dynamics in aqueous environments. He devised analytical and computational methods that revealed the underlying organization of complex systems at the frontiers of biology, chemistry, and materials science. In this retrospective we celebrate his work at these frontiers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian estimation of the $S$ factor and thermonuclear reaction rate for 16 O(p, γ) 17 F

The 16 O(p, γ) 17 F reaction is the slowest hydrogen-burning process in the CNO mass region. Its thermonuclear rate sensitively impacts predictions of oxygen isotopic ratios in a number of astrophysical sites, including AGB stars. The reaction has been measured several times at low bombarding energies using a variety of techniques. The most recent evaluated experimental rates have a reported uncertainty of about 7.5% below 1 GK. However, the previous rate estimate represents a best guess only and was not based on rigorous statistical methods. We apply a Bayesian model to fit all reliable 16 O(p, γ) 17 F cross section data, and take into account independent contributions of statistical and systematic uncertainties. The nuclear reaction model employed is a single-particle potential model involving a Woods-Saxon potential for generating the radial bound state wave function. The model has three physical parameters, the radius and diffuseness of the Woods-Saxon potential, and the asymptotic normalization coefficients (ANCs) of the final bound state in 17 F. Here, we find that performing the Bayesian S -factor fit using ANCs as scaling parameters has a distinct advantage over adopting spectroscopic factors instead. Based on these results, we present the first statistically rigorous estimation of experimental 16 O(p, γ) 17 F reaction rates, with uncertainties (±4.2%) of about half the previously reported values.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
DOE OSTI2022

TAUOLA update for decay channels with e + e – pairs in the final state

With the arrival of high luminosity B-factories like the Belle II experiment, τ decay measurements have become more precise than ever, allowing rarer processes to be explored, and finer details of τ decays to be studied. These are important to understand the spectrum of intermediate particles produced in τ decays. Therefore Monte Carlo generators, like the TAUOLA program, have to facilitate precision analysis as well as confront new models that constantly emerge with the availability of high statistics experimental data. New decay channels and models may lead to large variation of matrix elements size within the available phase space, as in the case when e + e - pairs are present in final state. It requires appropriate presampler of the phase space generator and a proper documentation to help users introduce their own models. While releasing a new update, it is important for the TAUOLA Monte Carlo library to maintain the general structure of the previous versions to preserve backward compatibility. The aim is to minimize changes from the user perspective. Finally, this paper presents a demonstration of new models implementation facilitated by the current update.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-fidelity information fusion with concatenated neural networks

Recently, computational modeling has shifted towards the use of statistical inference, deep learning, and other data-driven modeling frameworks. Although this shift in modeling holds promise in many applications like design optimization and real-time control by lowering the computational burden, training deep learning models needs a huge amount of data. This big data is not always available for scientific problems and leads to poorly generalizable data-driven models. This gap can be furnished by leveraging information from physics-based models. Exploiting prior knowledge about the problem at hand, this study puts forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) approach to build more tailored, effective, and efficient surrogate models. For our analysis, without losing its generalizability and modularity, we focus on the development of predictive models for laminar and turbulent boundary layer flows. In particular, we combine the self-similarity solution and power-law velocity profile (low-fidelity models) with the noisy data obtained either from experiments or computational fluid dynamics simulations (high-fidelity models) through a concatenated neural network. We illustrate how the knowledge from these simplified models results in reducing uncertainties associated with deep learning models applied to boundary layer flow prediction problems. The proposed multi-fidelity information fusion framework produces physically consistent models that attempt to achieve better generalization than data-driven models obtained purely based on data. While we demonstrate our framework for a problem relevant to fluid mechanics, its workflow and principles can be adopted for many scientific problems where empirical, analytical, or simplified models are prevalent. In line with grand demands in novel PGML principles, this work builds a bridge between extensive physics-based theories and data-driven modeling paradigms and paves the way for using hybrid physics and machine learning modeling approaches for next-generation digital twin technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical Inference of the Lensing Convergence from Photometric Catalogs with Bayesian Graph Neural Networks

Abstract We present a Bayesian graph neural network (BGNN) that can estimate the weak lensing convergence ( κ ) from photometric measurements of galaxies along a given line of sight (LOS). The method is of particular interest in strong gravitational time-delay cosmography (TDC), where characterizing the “external convergence” ( κ ext ) from the lens environment and LOS is necessary for precise Hubble constant ( H 0 ) inference. Starting from a large-scale simulation with a κ resolution of ∼1′, we introduce fluctuations on galaxy–galaxy lensing scales of ∼1″ and extract random sight lines to train our BGNN. We then evaluate the model on test sets with varying degrees of overlap with the training distribution. For each test set of 1000 sight lines, the BGNN infers the individual κ posteriors, which we combine in a hierarchical Bayesian model to yield constraints on the hyperparameters governing the population. For a test field well sampled by the training set, the BGNN recovers the population mean of κ precisely and without bias (within the 2 σ credible interval), resulting in a contribution to the H 0 error budget well under 1%. In the tails of the training set with sparse samples, the BGNN, which can ingest all available information about each sight line, extracts a stronger κ signal compared to a simplified version of the traditional method based on matching galaxy number counts, which is limited by sample variance. Our hierarchical inference pipeline using BGNNs promises to improve the κ ext characterization for precision TDC. The code is available as a public Python package, Node to Joy ⏬ .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Micromorphic Length-Scale Coupling Framework for the Determination of Higher-Order Constitutive Models and the Multi-Scale Simulation of Heterogeneous Materials [Thesis]

Heterogeneous materials and materials with complex microstructures pose a unique challenge in the development of accurate models of their response to external stimuli. These difficulties principally arise due to the difficulty in characterizing and modeling the constituents and their interactions. It is usually possible, though non-trivial, to construct an explicit representation of the microstructure (a direct numeric simulation or DNS) but the method by which the complex modes of deformation and other processes can be homogenized to a reduced-order approximation is frequently unclear. Many homogenization approaches are ad-hoc and lack a strong justification beyond ease of computation. Furthermore, the homogenization approach can, in some cases, not utilize the full breadth of information available in the computation of the macro-scale stresses and deformation measures. It is also noteworthy that homogenization, by its very nature, will tend to obfuscate details of processes occurring at the lower length-scale. It is therefore of interest to include as much information as possible in the construction of the reduced-order model so as to be predictive in a variety of loading environments. We here present a length-scale bridging technique based upon the micromorphic continuum mechanics of Eringen which incorporates volume and surface area averages as a part of its construction. This approach enforces the balance equations at the micro-scale and then studies the effect of the spatially varying nature on the macro-scale. This leads, naturally, to further balance equations which are solved at the macro-scale. This work details a homogenization framework which arises naturally from the micromorphic construction of Eringen attempting to introduce no definitions beyond which are justifiable from micro-structural considerations. One of the results of this effort is the so-called “micromorphic filter” which has been developed and applied to several DNS to demonstrate its effectively. In order to determine the macroscopic degrees of freedom we utilize the special case of an overlap coupling technique where the macro-scale is fully constrained to the micro-scale. This enables us to study the resulting material properties as expected but also allows us to further study the boundary conditions on the additional degrees of freedom at the macro-scale.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Controlling morphology in hybrid isotropic/patchy particle assemblies

Brownian dynamics is used to study self-assembly in a hybrid system of isotropic particles (IPs), combined with anisotropic building blocks that represent special “designer particles.” Those are modeled as spherical patchy particles (PPs) with binding only allowed between their patches and IPs. In this study, two types of PPs are considered: Octahedral PPs (Oh-PPs) and Square PPs (Sq-PPs), with octahedral and square arrangements of patches, respectively. The self-assembly is additionally facilitated by the simulated annealing procedure. Here, the resultant structures are characterized by a combination of local correlations in cubatic ordering and a symmetry-specific variation of bond orientation order parameters (SymBOPs). By varying the PP/IP size ratio, we detected a sharp crossover between two distinct morphologies in both types of systems. High symmetry phases, NaCl crystal for Oh-PP and square lattice for Sq-PP, are observed for larger size ratios. For the smaller ones, the dominant morphologies are significantly different, e.g., Oh-PPs form a compact amorphous structure with predominantly face-to-face orientation of neighboring PPs. Unusually, for a morphology without a long-range order, it is still possible to identify well organized coherent clusters of this structure, thanks to the adoption of our SymBOP-based characterization.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Imaging for Intelligence in Highly Scattering Aerosols (Final Report)

Natural and man-made degraded visual environments pose major threats to national security. The random scattering and absorption of light by tiny particles suspended in the air reduces situational awareness and causes unacceptable down-time for critical systems and operations. To improve the situation, we have developed several approaches to interpret the information contained within scattered light to enhance sensing and imaging in scattering media. These approaches were tested at the Sandia National Laboratory Fog Chamber facility and with tabletop fog chambers. Computationally efficient light transport models were developed and leveraged for computational sensing. The models are based on a weak angular dependence approximation to the Boltzmann or radiative transfer equation that appears to be applicable in both the moderate and highly scattering regimes. After the new model was experimentally validated, statistical approaches for detection, localization, and imaging of objects hidden in fog were developed and demonstrated. A binary hypothesis test and the Neyman-Pearson lemma provided the highest theoretically possible probability of detection for a specified false alarm rate and signal-to-noise ratio. Maximum likelihood estimation allowed estimation of the fog optical properties as well as the position, size, and reflection coefficient of an object in fog. A computational dehazing approach was implemented to reduce the effects of scatter on images, making object features more readily discernible. We have developed, characterized, and deployed a new Tabletop Fog Chamber capable of repeatably generating multiple unique fog-analogues for optical testing in degraded visual environments. We characterized this chamber using both optical and microphysical techniques. In doing so we have explored the ability of droplet nucleation theory to describe the aerosols generated within the chamber, as well as Mie scattering theory to describe the attenuation of light by said aerosols, and correlated the aerosol microphysics to optical properties such as transmission and meteorological optical range (MOR). This chamber has proved highly valuable and has supported multiple efforts inclusive to and exclusive of this LDRD project to test optics in degraded visual environments. Circularly polarized light has been found to maintain its polarization state better than linearly polarized light when propagating through fog. This was demonstrated experimentally in both the visible and short-wave infrared (SWIR) by imaging targets made of different commercially available retroreflective films. It was found that active circularly polarized imaging can increase contrast and range compared to linearly polarized imaging. We have completed an initial investigation of the capability for machine learning methods to reduce the effects of light scattering when imaging through fog. Previously acquired experimental long-wave images were used to train an autoencoder denoising architecture. Overfitting was found to be a problem because of lack of variability in the object type in this data set. The lessons learned were used to collect a well labeled dataset with much more variability using the Tabletop Fog Chamber that will be available for future studies. We have developed several new sensing methods using speckle intensity correlations. First, the ability to image moving objects in fog was shown, establishing that our unique speckle imaging method can be implemented in dynamic scattering media. Second, the speckle decorrelation over time was found to be sensitive to fog composition, implying extensions to fog characterization. Third, the ability to distinguish macroscopically identical objects on a far-subwavelength scale was demonstrated, suggesting numerous applications ranging from nanoscale defect detection to security. Fourth, we have shown the capability to simultaneously image and localize hidden objects, allowing the speckle imaging method to be effective without prior object positional information. Finally, an interferometric effect was presented that illustrates a new approach for analyzing speckle intensity correlations that may lead to more effective ways to localize and image moving objects. All of these results represent significant developments that challenge the limits of the application of speckle imaging and open important application spaces. A theory was developed and simulations were performed to assess the potential transverse resolution benefit of relative motion in structured illumination for radar systems. Results for a simplified radar system model indicate that significant resolution benefits are possible using data from scanning a structured beam over the target, with the use of appropriate signal processing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Correlations between thermal history and keyhole porosity in laser powder bed fusion

Additive manufacturing has the potential to revolutionize the production of metallic components as it yields near net shape parts with complex geometries and minimizes waste. At the present day, additively manufactured components face qualification and certification challenges due to the difficulty in controlling defects. This has driven a significant research effort aimed at better understanding and improving processing controls – yielding a plethora of in-situ measurements aimed at correlating defects with material quality metrics of interest. In this work, we develop machine-learning methods to learn correlations between thermal history and subsurface porosity for a variety of print conditions in laser powder bed fusion. Un-normalized surface temperatures (in the form of black-body radiances) are obtained using high-speed infrared imaging and porosity formation is observed in the sample cross-section through synchrotron x-ray imaging. To demonstrate the predictive power of these features, we present four statistical machine-learning models that correlate temperature histories to subsurface porosity formation in laser fused Ti-6Al4V powder.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

A hybrid deep neural operator/finite element method for ice-sheet modeling

One of the most challenging and consequential problems in climate modeling is to provide probabilistic projections of sea level rise. A large part of the uncertainty of sea level projections is due to uncertainty in ice sheet dynamics. At the moment, accurate quantification of the uncertainty is hindered by the cost of ice sheet computational models. In this work we develop a hybrid approach to approximate existing ice sheet models at a fraction of their cost. Our approach consists of replacing the finite element model for the momentum equations for the ice velocity, the most expensive part of an ice sheet model, with a Deep Operator Network, while we retain a classic finite element discretization for the evolution of the ice thickness. We show that the resulting hybrid model is very accurate and it is an order of magnitude faster than the traditional finite element model. Further, a distinctive feature of the proposed model, compared to other neural network approaches, is that it can handle high-dimensional parameter spaces (parameter fields) such as the basal friction at the bed of the glacier and can therefore be used for generating samples for uncertainty quantification. Further, we study the impact of hyper-parameters, number of unknowns and correlation length of the parameter distribution on the training and accuracy of the Deep Operator Network on a synthetic ice sheet model. We then target the evolution of the Humboldt glacier in Greenland and show that our hybrid model can provide accurate statistics of the glacier mass loss and can be effectively used to accelerate the quantification of uncertainty.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗