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Understanding Biases in Sample Preparation Techniques for Coupled Scanning Electron Microscopy and MAMA PuO 2 Morphological Analysis

In this project, the scanning electron microscopy (SEM) sampling method used during the statistical design study (SDS) was investigated to determine if any sampling biases were present in the analyzed data. Using standard particle size distribution powders from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST 1984 standard reference material) with the origin wet dispersion method, it was determined that a bias to smaller particles was present. This was supported by theoretical calculations using Stokes’ law to determine the settling rate of spherical particles of roughly the same size and mass as those found in the SDS. Based on the theoretical calculations, it was determined that the settling rate for each of the 76 powder sets in the SDS could be unique based on specific particle shape and mass distributions, making a universal correction factor/formula not applicable. Therefore, priority shifted to developing an improved wet dispersion method that significantly reduced the particle settling rate for all particle size and shapes. This was achieved by replacing the original solvent (isopropyl alcohol) with a heavy liquid (lithium heteropolytungstates), which dramatically slowed the settling rate and allowed for the capture of a suitable homogeneous aliquot. SEM imaging and Morphological Analysis for Material Attribution (MAMA) software analysis were conducted on the NIST standard, and the SEM/MAMA data were compared to data captured by a dynamic image analysis particle size analyzer. The resulting data confirmed that the new wet dispersion method does indeed deliver an improved representative aliquot to the SEM stub. For instance, in the NIST certificate, the average particle size is ~17.1 µm ± 2.2 µm with a normal distribution. The initial wet dispersion method resulted in a drastically reduced average particle size of 6.1 µm in addition to a non-representative heavy bi-modal distribution whereas the improved LST wet dispersion method resulting in an average particle size that was much closer to the NIST certificate (12.7 µm) with a similar normal distribution. Although the improved method was still short of the NIST certificate average, atomic force microscopy analysis determined that the resulting ~20-25% reduction in size was due to particles sinking into the carbon sticky tape used for SEM imaging. It is believed that that this bias can be calibrated in a much more predicable manner than the original settling rate bias. In addition, the matching normal distribution curves between the NIST certificate and the heavy liquid method indicate a much-improved representative aliquot has been sampled and imaged. A surrogate CeO 2 powder was used to reflect PuO 2 more accurately and to aid in implementing radiological controls and shielding. The resulting data sets from the SEM/MAMA method and the particle size analyzer give almost identical average particle sizes and particle distribution statistics. Future work will re-analyze several select runs from the SDS to determine if morphological signatures can be found with the improved sampling method.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Experimental and analytical investigation of a monocoque wing model loaded in bending

Bending tests with transverse loads and with pure bending were undertaken on a double-web monocoque wing model in order to establish the relation between the state of stress and the results from the elementary bending theory. The longitudinal stresses in the stiffeners were measured with tensiometers and the shear stresses in the sheet were calculated from them. The measurements were made at both moderate loads with no buckles in the covering and at loads with which the critical stress in the individual panels was exceeded. For the comparison, the wing skin was considered as stiffened sheet according to the shear panel scheme. In this way, the statistically indeterminate calculation was confirmed by the test results.

Schapitz, E↗

Long-term evolution of crustal neutron star magnetic fields

We have derived an analytic solution to the asymptotic behavior of dipolar magnetic fields that are generated in the crusts of neutron stars. We show that if the conductivity is due to impurity scattering, as expected for late stages of evolution, the surface field strength at the magnetic pole declines with the power law B(sub p) approximately = (t/t(sub 0))(exp -2/3). The results are shown to be qualitatively consistent with detailed numerical calculations. These latter results are consistent with some recent analyses of pulsar statistics and the magnetic fields of several binary pulsars with white dwarf companions whose ages have been determined. The dependence of the surface magnetic field on spin period of the pulsar is derived.

Urpin, V. A.↗

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

Neural Networks (Computer)↗

Total Moisture Analysis of Salts by Dissolution

This report discusses recent efforts within TA-48 in developing a robust, defensible, and straightforward procedure for determining the moisture content of alkali and alkaline metal halide salts utilizing a total dissolution Karl-Fischer titration method. Utilizing statistical analysis of blank and dissolved salt samples, we determine a (3 sigma) detection limit of 67 micrograms H 2 O/g salt, and a (10 sigma) quantification limit of 160 micrograms H 2 O/g salt. Several salts are analyzed, and suggestions for future efforts are given.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Big Data Analytics for Long-Term Meteorological Observations at Hanford Site

A growing number of physical objects with embedded sensors with typically high volume and frequently updated data sets has accentuated the need to develop methodologies to extract useful information from big data for supporting decision making. This study applies a suite of data analytics and core principles of data science to characterize near real-time meteorological data with a focus on extreme weather events. To highlight the applicability of this work and make it more accessible from a risk management perspective, a foundation for a software platform with an intuitive Graphical User Interface (GUI) was developed to access and analyze data from a decommissioned nuclear production complex operated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE, Richland, USA). Exploratory data analysis (EDA), involving classical non-parametric statistics, and machine learning (ML) techniques, were used to develop statistical summaries and learn characteristic features of key weather patterns and signatures. The new approach and GUI provide key insights into using big data and ML to assist site operation related to safety management strategies for extreme weather events. Specifically, this work offers a practical guide to analyzing long-term meteorological data and highlights the integration of ML and classical statistics to applied risk and decision science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Guide star targeting success for the HEAO-B observatory

The statistics associated with the successful selection and acquisition of guide stars as attitude benchmarks for use in reorientation maneuvers of the HEAO-B observatory are considered as a function of the maneuver angle, initial attitude uncertainties, and the pertinent celestial region. Success likelihoods in excess of 0.99 are predicted assuming anticipated gyro and star tracker error sources. The maneuver technique and guide star selection constraints are described in detail. The results presented are specialized numerically to the HEAO-B observatory. However, the analytical techniques developed are considered applicable to broader classes of spacecraft requiring celestial targeting.

Farrenkopf, R. L.↗

Chrono-Validation of Near-Real-Time Landslide Susceptibility Models via Plugin Statistical Simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Temporal validation↗

Strategies and Technologies for In Situ Mineralogical Investigations on Mars

Surface landers on Mars (Viking and Pathfinder) have not revealed satisfying answers to the mineralogy and lithology of the planet's surface. In part, this results from their prime directives: Viking focused on exobiology, Pathfinder focused on technology demonstration. The analytical instruments on board the landers made admirable attempts to extract the mineralogy and geology of Mars, as did countless modeling efforts after the missions. Here we suggest a framework for elucidating martian, or any other planetary geology, through an approach that defines (a) type of information required, (b) explorational strategy harmonious with acquisition of these data, (c) interpretation approach to the data, (d) compatible mission architecture, (e) instrumentation for interrogating rocks and soil. (a) Data required: The composition of a planet is ordered at scales ranging from molecules to minerals to rocks, and from geological units to provinces to planetary-scale systems. The largest ordering that in situ compositional instruments can attempt to interrogate is rock type "aggregate" information. This is what the geologist attempts to identify first. From this, mineralogy can be either directly seen or inferred. From mineralogy can be determined elemental abundances and perhaps the state of the compounds as being crystalline or amorphous. Knowledge of rock type and mineralogy is critical for elucidating geologic process. Mars landers acquired extremely valuable elemental data, but attempted to move from elements to aggregates, but this can only be done by making many assumptions and sometimes giant leaps of faith. Data we believe essential are elements, minerals, degree of ordering of compounds, and the aggregate or rock type that these materials compose. (b) Explorational strategy: A lander should function as a surrogate geologist. Of the total landscape, a geologist sees much, but gives detailed attention to an infinitesimally small amount of what is seen. To acquire samples worth detailed scrutiny, as many samples as possible need examining at a cursory or reconnaissance level. A representative, statistically-meaningful sample number cannot be overemphasized. This maxim still applies to geological exploration of our own planet of which we have abundant knowledge. Analysis of many samples mandates low-power consumption per sample. (c) Data interpretation: No single instrument can analyze the full spectrum of the x-axis. An instrument is optimized for detecting certain material characteristics and must therefore affix itself to some point on the x-axis. Any conclusions drawn about data to the left or right of the instrument's position on this axis must necessarily be derived by inference. Hence, it seems logical to include on a mission, instruments that are not closely spaced in their x-axis-position, and if only two analytical methods are used, as shown, they should start at opposite ends of the axis and work towards the center. As examples, we depict a high-resolution camera to evaluate rock type ("aggregate" state) and mineralogy, and an x-ray diffractometer-fluorescence spectrometer (XRD-XRF) to determine elements, minerals, and the degree of order of materials. (d) Mission architecture: No instrument or suite of instruments can be relied upon to always give truly unequivocal analyses. The suite of instruments should therefore permit conclusions of one instrument to be checked against those of another through closed analytical loops. These "loops" can be structured by a combination of orbital imagery, descent imagery, broad-band site viewing/analysis, and data that cover both x and y axes. For example, the detection of a basaltic-looking rock with a microscope should be checked against the elements detected, the appearance of the rock as a lava flow from descent imagery, and so forth. (e) Instrumentation: To satisfy the above criteria, it is necessary to: (i) See the rock or soil with high resolution + magnification, (ii) Examine many samples, (iii) Consume little power per analysis, (iv) Determine elemental species, (v) Determine mineralogy directly (not inferentially) and the degree of ordering of compounds, (vi) Start analyzing from both ends of the x-axis. Every geologist wants to see the hand sample first, and apply a hand lens to its surface. This has not been the starting point for missions to Mars. Thus, our technology satisfies all these criteria . This XRD-XRF-Optical instrument currently being developed, analyses rock or soil surfaces without the need for sample acquisition or preparation; this satisfies the power criterion, and enables many analyses. The device acquires direct mineralogy and determines elemental species. The embedded endoscopic camera satisfies the critical criterion of close inspection of samples; the fiber optic cable can also be used for IR, LTV, or laser sample analysis. Additional information is contained in the original (Figures).

Marshall, J. R.↗

2D-FFTLog: efficient computation of real-space covariance matrices for galaxy clustering and weak lensing

ABSTRACT Accurate covariance matrices for two-point functions are critical for inferring cosmological parameters in likelihood analyses of large-scale structure surveys. Among various approaches to obtaining the covariance, analytic computation is much faster and less noisy than estimation from data or simulations. However, the transform of covariances from Fourier space to real space involves integrals with two Bessel integrals, which are numerically slow and easily affected by numerical uncertainties. Inaccurate covariances may lead to significant errors in the inference of the cosmological parameters. In this paper, we introduce a 2D-FFTLog algorithm for efficient, accurate, and numerically stable computation of non-Gaussian real-space covariances for both 3D and projected statistics. The 2D-FFTLog algorithm is easily extended to perform real-space bin-averaging. We apply the algorithm to the covariances for galaxy clustering and weak lensing for a Dark Energy Survey Year 3-like and a Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time Year 1-like survey, and demonstrate that for both surveys, our algorithm can produce numerically stable angular bin-averaged covariances with the flat sky approximation, which are sufficiently accurate for inferring cosmological parameters. The code CosmoCov for computing the real-space covariances with or without the flat-sky approximation is released along with this paper.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Collaborative: in situ visual analytics technologies for extreme scale combustion simulations

This project aims to drastically enhance the usability of in situ analysis and visualization for extreme-scale scientific simulations. Current exascale computing capabilities promise to offer greater predictive ability of simulations and to further push the frontiers of science and technology. However, to validate the simulation output at extreme scale, examine the modeled phenomena, and discover previously unknowns from the output data, the output must be reduced or transformed in situ as it is being generated during the simulation such that the amount of data to examine and store is kept to a minimum. Such in situ approaches allow us to process and analyze the data and any embedded geometry to an extent that would be prohibitively expensive, if not impossible, to perform as a post hoc task. While in situ processing has been demonstrated to be a feasible and promising approach, its full potential has not yet been leveraged. In this project, we have developed comprehensive enhancements to in situ technology based on probability distributions in data. Our research focuses on jointly developing new ways of interacting with massive statistical samples while creatively utilizing new state-of-the-art computational resources to push the boundaries of in situ exploration. Moreover, we have developed new time-dependent techniques to enable previously unattainable capabilities in areas such as intelligent simulation steering and precise feature identification. We have experimentally studied our design and implementation at NERSC and OLCF, and are able to leverage existing in situ infrastructures whenever possible. While the exemplar in this project is combustion, many other fields for which turbulent transport is important, e.g., fusion, climate, astrophysics among others, encounter similar issues as simulations scale up to the exascale. This project shows its potential to generate high impact on DOE missions since the resulting technology promises to improve scientists’ ability to rapidly and correctly interpret and tune extreme-scale simulations, leading to new scientific understanding and advancements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analytical prediction of the interior noise for cylindrical models of aircraft fuselages for prescribed exterior noise fields. Phase 2: Models for sidewall trim, stiffened structures and cabin acoustics with floor partition

An airplane interior noise prediction model is developed to determine the important parameters associated with sound transmission into the interiors of airplanes, and to identify apropriate noise control methods. Models for stiffened structures, and cabin acoustics with floor partition are developed. Validation studies are undertaken using three test articles: a ring stringer stiffened cylinder, an unstiffened cylinder with floor partition, and ring stringer stiffened cylinder with floor partition and sidewall trim. The noise reductions of the three test articles are computed using the heoretical models and compared to measured values. A statistical analysis of the comparison data indicates that there is no bias in the predictions although a substantial random error exists so that a discrepancy of more than five or six dB can be expected for about one out of three predictions.

Pope, L. D.↗

Statistically Driven Metabolite and Lipid Profiling of Patients from the Undiagnosed Diseases Network

Advancements in molecular separations coupled with mass spectrometry have enabled large-scale metabolome analyses for clinical cohorts. A population of interest for metabolome profiling are patients with rare disease for which abnormal metabolic signatures may yield clues into the genetic bases, as well as mechanistic drivers of the disease and possible treatment options. We undertook the metabolome profiling of a large cohort of patients with mysterious conditions characterized through the Un-diagnosed Diseases Network (UDN). Due to the size and enrollment procedures, collection of the metabolomes for UDN pa-tients took place over three years. We describe the study design to adjust for measurements collected over a long time-scale and how this enabled statistical analyses to summarize the metabolome of individual patients. We demonstrate the removal of time-based batch effects, overall statistical characteristics of the UDN population, and two case-studies of interest that demonstrate the utility of metabolome profiling for rare diseases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Perspectives on Polyolefin Catalysis in Microfluidics for High-Throughput Screening: A Minireview

Polyolefins are the largest produced plastics in the world which traditionally employ continuous stirred tank reactors and fluidized bed reactors for commercial production. The operating condition, reaction kinetics, and molecular interactions inside the reactor strongly affect the polyolefin properties, which require stringent process control in conventional procedures. Understanding the catalytic pathway, behavior of polymer particles and effect of reactor conditions are essential for designing specific polymer properties, namely the molecular weight, chain length, polydispersity, etc. Microfluidics can play a significant role in designing polymers tailored to the user needs. Smaller channel dimensions help obtain uniform reaction conditions over the length of the microfluidic reactor in a controlled environment. With real-time monitoring techniques in microfluidics, even single particle growth of polymer can be studied to understand the parameters affecting the polymer properties. High throughput microfluidics can help catalyst screening in a short duration with less consumption of reagents generating less waste. When supplemented with efficient machine learning algorithms, automated high throughput microfluidics has the potential to rapidly optimize the process and develop new knowledge even with a limited data set. When trained on data sets generated using microfluidic experiments that are designed efficiently with working knowledge of the process, machine learning algorithms can provide the relationship between the multivariable parameters space and polymer properties, which is not possible with the traditional statistical methods and interpolation techniques. Here, the rise in the utilization of microfluidics, with the advancement of machine learning algorithms, for polyolefin catalysis, highlights the importance of microfluidics for catalyst discovery, parameter optimization, and understanding reaction pathway for producing polymers with specific properties for specialized applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Toward a Diverse Next-Generation Energy Workforce: Teaching Artificial Photosynthesis and Electrochemistry in Elementary Schools through Active Learning

Artificial photosynthesis is a promising approach to generate commodity chemicals using abundant chemical feedstocks and renewable energy sources. Despite its importance, affordable and effective hands-on classroom activities that demonstrate artificial photosynthesis and teach key concepts, especially for primary school students, are lacking. Educating young students on this topic is a critical step in the development of the next-generation energy workforce, especially one that is diverse in race and gender. Here, we hypothesize that an effective approach to educate a broad range of young students on the topic of artificial photosynthesis is through the use of an active learning-based lesson plan that employs cheap and accessible materials. This hypothesis is confirmed by evaluating the understanding of fifth grade students with a survey before and after a lesson plan on artificial photosynthesis that uses active-learning techniques and uses safe and highly accessible materials (baking soda, tap water, plastic jars, Ni coil, alligator clips, and a solar cell) to perform solar-powered water splitting. The lesson plan and survey questions are designed to align with the educational outcomes for fifth grade classrooms in California and to address four general learning objectives: (1) Motivations of Artificial Photosynthesis, (2) Applications of Artificial Photosynthesis, (3) Inputs and Outputs of Artificial Photosynthesis, and (4) Engineering Design for Artificial Photosynthesis. The survey data demonstrate a statistically significant improvement in overall student understanding from the lesson plan. Importantly, the data show that the lesson plan presented here is effective at narrowing the performance gap between minority students and overly represented groups.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Map-Based Noise Simulations for DR6

The increasing statistical power of cosmic microwave background (CMB) datasets requires a commensurate effort in understanding their noise properties. The noise in maps from ground-based instruments is dominated by large-scale correlations, which poses a modeling challenge. This paper develops novel models of the complex noise covariance structure in the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 6 (ACT DR6) maps. We first enumerate the noise properties that arise from the combination of the atmosphere and the ACT scan strategy. We then prescribe a class of Gaussian, map-based noise models, including a new wavelet-based approach that uses directional wavelet kernels for modeling correlated instrumental noise. The models are empirical, whose only inputs are a small number of independent realizations of the same region of sky. We evaluate the performance of these models against the ACT DR6 data by drawing ensembles of noise realizations. Applying these simulations to the ACT DR6 power spectrum pipeline reveals a ≥ 20% excess in the covariance matrix diagonal when compared to an analytic expression that assumes noise properties are uniquely described by their power spectrum. Along with our public code, mnms, this work establishes a necessary element in the science pipelines of both ACT DR6 and future ground-based CMB experiments such as the Simons Observatory (SO).

CMBR experiments↗

Bubble Point Measurements of cis-1,1,1,4,4,4-Hexafluorobutene [R-1336mzz(Z)] + trans-1,2-Dichloroethene [R-1130(E)] mixtures

Saturation pressures of pure R-1336mzz(Z) and R-1130(E) and bubble point pressures of three R-1336mzz(Z)/1130(E) blends were measured from 265 K to 360 K. For each pure refrigerant or refrigerant blend, a total of twenty unique saturation pressures or bubble points were measured. In total 100 unique state points were obtained. Presently, no Helmholtz-energy-explicit type equation of state (EoS) is available for R-1130(E). While an extended corresponding states EoS for R-1130(E) is available to estimate the properties of the R-1336mzz(Z)/1130(E) blend, this model does not resolve the azeotropic behavior of the mixture. Therefore, the perturbed-chain statistical-associating fluid theory (PC-SAFT) EoS is used to model the vapor–liquid equilibria of the R-1336mzz(Z)/1130(E) blend. PC-SAFT model parameters are reported, and the overall performance of the model is characterized by deviations from the experimental data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Experimental study of crystallization fouling by calcium carbonate: Effects of surface structure and material

We report mitigation of crystallization fouling on heat transfer surface is crucial for developing highly efficient desalination techniques, because the tenacious and porous crystal layer can drastically deteriorate system efficiency. Surface modification is a potential approach to decrease scale formation and promote crystal removal, but some of the mechanisms between crystallization and substrate properties are still not fully understood. In this study, we use dual-angle microscopic visualization and image processing to quantify three-dimensional crystallization behavior and analyze the impact of surface structure and material. The transition of crystal size and distance with roughness and wettability are identified from statistical analysis. The determination of crystal porosity and effective thermal conductivity is enabled by visualized geometry and measured deposition mass. This study shed lights on potential strategies of surface modification to mitigate scaling in desalination by enhancing scale removal and localizing crystal growth.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗