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At least 901 records · Page 50

Future Climate Projections for South Florida: Improving the Accuracy of Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes With a Hybrid Statistical Bias Correction Technique

Projecting future climate variables is essential for comprehending the potential impacts on hydroclimatic hazards like floods and droughts. Evaluating these impacts is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs); therefore, bias correction is widely used. Here, we applied two statistical methods—standard empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and a hybrid approach, EQM with linear correction (EQM-LIN)—to bias correct precipitation and air temperature simulated by nine GCMs. We used historical observations from 20 weather stations across South Florida to project future climate under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Compared to the EQM, the hybrid EQM-LIN method improved R 2 of daily quantiles by up to 30% over the historical period and improved MAE up to 70% in months that contain most extreme values. Projected extreme precipitation at the weather stations showed that, compared to the EQM-LIN, the EQM method underestimates the high quantiles by up to 26% in SSP585. The projected changes in annual maximum precipitation from historical period (1985–2014) to near future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2100) were between 2% and 16% across the study area. Projected future precipitation suggested a slight decrease during summer but an increase in fall. This, along with rising summer temperatures, suggested that South Florida can experience rapid oscillations from warmer summers and increased flooding in fall under future climate. Additionally, our comparative analyses with globally and nationally downscaled studies showed that such coarse scale studies do not represent the climatic extremes well, particularly for high quantile precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Extreme Heat on Emergency Department Admissions for Childhood and Adult Asthma: An Evaluation of Earth Observations and Heat Wave Definitions

Extreme heat has been associated with adverse health outcomes, yet its impact on asthma exacerbations remains understudied. This is, in part, due to data limitations: research that relies on weather station records and aggregated health statistics cannot resolve fine-scale differences in heat impacts. This study investigates the association between heat wave definitions and summertime asthma-related emergency department visits in Baltimore, Maryland from 2016 to 2022, including 819 adult and 695 pediatric exacerbations. Using geocoded electronic health records and air temperature measurements at several spatial resolutions, we applied a case-crossover design with conditional logistic regressions at the census block group and tract levels. We found strong associations between asthma exacerbations and nighttime heat wave definitions based on relative thresholds of minimum temperatures when census block group or tract level temperature estimates were used. These relationships were significant for both age groups and showed elevated risks in socially vulnerable areas. In contrast, heat wave definitions derived from the city's primary National Weather Service synoptic weather station show associations between asthma and daytime heat extremes, suggesting that the character of the heat hazard depends on the scale at which it is defined. The extreme heat event definition used by Baltimore City's Code Red system showed no significant association with exacerbations. These findings highlight the importance of data resolution in shaping health inferences related to extreme heat in urban environments. Further, this study demonstrates that, regardless of spatial scale, extreme heat is associated with asthma exacerbations in both age groups.

Corpuz, B. [Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, M↗

Environmental Factors Associated With Fall Phytoplankton Blooms in the Northern Bering and Chukchi Seas

This study investigates environmental drivers of fall phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic, focusing on the northern Bering and Chukchi seas. Random Forests models were used to analyze covariates of fall phytoplankton blooms from 2013 to 2018, incorporating shipboard, remote sensing, and modeled environmental properties. Four regional models and one comprehensive all-station model considered fall as well as midsummer conditions. Midsummer properties included suspended particulate matter, chlorophyll-a, and the proportion of degraded pheophytin to chlorophyll-a used as a proxy for bloom stage. Open water duration was one of the highest ranked factors in predicting fall blooms. Open water duration also influences the stage of midsummer (July) blooms as indicated by pheophytin proportions, which in turn were the highest-ranked factor for predicting fall bloom events in the Chirikov Basin (northern Bering Sea between St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait) and the Chukchi Sea. Wind direction, specifically easterly winds, was an important predictor in the northern Bering Sea. Maximum wind speed ranked highly at stations located within the nutrient-poor Alaska Coastal Current in the Chukchi Sea. However, stormy days, average and maximum wind speeds generally ranked low in importance as a predictor of fall bloom events. Other parameters, including photosynthetic active radiation, modeled nutrient concentrations, mixed layer depth, and time since sea ice breakup date showed strong but regionally varying relationships with fall blooms. Altogether, results from these Random Forests models suggest that high wind events and storms in the absence of sea ice provide an incomplete narrative for initiating fall bloom events.

Gaffey, C. B. [Clark University, Worcester, MA (Un↗

Widespread detection of chlorine oxyacids in the Arctic atmosphere

Chlorine radicals are strong atmospheric oxidants known to play an important role in the depletion of surface ozone and the degradation of methane in the Arctic troposphere. Initial oxidation processes of chlorine produce chlorine oxides, and it has been speculated that the final oxidation steps lead to the formation of chloric (HClO 3 ) and perchloric (HClO 4 ) acids, although these two species have not been detected in the atmosphere. Here, we present atmospheric observations of gas-phase HClO 3 and HClO 4 . Significant levels of HClO 3 were observed during springtime at Greenland (Villum Research Station), Ny-Ålesund research station and over the central Arctic Ocean, on-board research vessel Polarstern during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of the Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) campaign, with estimated concentrations up to 7 × 10 6 molecule cm -3 . The increase in HClO 3 , concomitantly with that in HClO 4 , was linked to the increase in bromine levels. These observations indicated that bromine chemistry enhances the formation of OClO, which is subsequently oxidized into HClO 3 and HClO 4 by hydroxyl radicals. HClO 3 and HClO 4 are not photoactive and therefore their loss through heterogeneous uptake on aerosol and snow surfaces can function as a previously missing atmospheric sink for reactive chlorine, thereby reducing the chlorine-driven oxidation capacity in the Arctic boundary layer. Our study reveals additional chlorine species in the atmosphere, providing further insights into atmospheric chlorine cycling in the polar environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of biogenic emissions from boreal forests on aerosol–cloud interactions

Boreal forest acts as a carbon sink and contributes to the formation of secondary organic aerosols via emission of aerosol precursor compounds. However, these influences on the climate system are poorly quantified. Here we show direct observational evidence that aerosol emissions from the boreal forest biosphere influence warm cloud microphysics and cloud-aerosol interactions in a scale-dependent and highly dynamic manner. Analyses of in situ and ground-based remote-sensing observations from the SMEAR II station in Finland, conducted over eight months in 2014, reveal substantial increases in aerosol load over the forest one to three days after aerosol-poor marine air enters the forest environment. We find that these changes are consistent with secondary organic aerosol formation and, together with water-vapour emissions from evapotranspiration, are associated with changes in the radiative properties of warm, low-level clouds. Here, the feedbacks between boreal forest emissions and aerosol-cloud interactions and the highly dynamic nature of these interactions in air transported over the forest over timescales of several days suggest boreal forests have the potential to mitigate climate change on a continental scale. Our findings suggest that even small changes in aerosol precursor emissions, whether due to changing climatic or anthropogenic factors, may substantially modify the radiative properties of clouds in moderately polluted environments. Emissions from the boreal forest biosphere can substantially increase aerosol load above the forest and influence the radiative properties of clouds, according to analysis of observations from a monitoring station in Finland.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset

CRU TS (Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series) is a widely used climate dataset on a 0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude grid over all land domains of the world except Antarctica. It is derived by the interpolation of monthly climate anomalies from extensive networks of weather station observations. Here we describe the construction of a major new version, CRU TS v4. It is updated to span 1901–2018 by the inclusion of additional station observations, and it will be updated annually. The interpolation process has been changed to use angular-distance weighting (ADW), and the production of secondary variables has been revised to better suit this approach. This implementation of ADW provides improved traceability between each gridded value and the input observations, and allows more informative diagnostics that dataset users can utilise to assess how dataset quality might vary geographically.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gridded daily weather data for North America with comprehensive uncertainty quantification

Abstract Access to daily high-resolution gridded surface weather data based on direct observations and over long time periods is essential for many studies and applications including vegetation, wildlife, soil health, hydrological modelling, and as driver data in Earth system models. We present Daymet V4, a 40-year daily meteorological dataset on a 1 km grid for North America, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, providing temperature, precipitation, shortwave radiation, vapor pressure, snow water equivalent, and day length. The dataset includes an objective quantification of uncertainty based on strict cross-validation analysis for temperature and precipitation results. The dataset represents several improvements from a previous version, and this data descriptor provides complete documentation for updated methods. Improvements include: reductions in the timing bias of input reporting weather station measurements; improvement to the three-dimensional regression model techniques in the core algorithm; and a novel approach to handling high elevation temperature measurement biases. We show cross-validation analyses with the underlying weather station data to demonstrate the technical validity of new dataset generation methods, and to quantify improved accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Newly reconstructed Arctic surface air temperatures for 1979–2021 with deep learning method

A precise Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) dataset, that is regularly updated, has more complete spatial and temporal coverage, and is based on instrumental observations, is critically important for timely monitoring and improving understanding of the rapid change in the Arctic climate. In this study, a new monthly gridded Arctic SAT dataset dated back to 1979 was reconstructed with a deep learning method by combining surface air temperatures from multiple data sources. The source data include the observations from land station of GHCN (Global Historical Climatology Network), ICOADS (International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set) over the oceans, drifting ice station of Russian NP (North Pole), and buoys of IABP (International Arctic Buoy Programme). The last two are crucial for improving the representation of the in-situ observed temperatures within the Arctic. The newly reconstructed dataset includes monthly Arctic SAT beginning in 1979 and daily Arctic SAT beginning in 2011. This dataset would represent a new improvement in developing observational temperature datasets and can be used for a variety of applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CHUWD-H v1.0: a comprehensive historical hourly weather database for U.S. urban energy system modeling

Reliable and continuous meteorological data are crucial for modeling the responses of energy systems and their components to weather and climate conditions, particularly in densely populated urban areas. However, existing long-term datasets often suffer from spatial and temporal gaps and inconsistencies, posing great challenges for detailed urban energy system modeling and cross-city comparison under realistic weather conditions. Here we introduce the Historical Comprehensive Hourly Urban Weather Database (CHUWD-H) v1.0, a 23-year (1998-2020) gap-free and quality-controlled hourly weather dataset covering 550 weather station locations across all urban areas in the contiguous United States. CHUWD-H v1.0 synthesizes hourly weather observations from stations with outputs from a physics-based solar radiation model and a reanalysis dataset through a multi-step gap filling approach. A 10-fold Monte Carlo cross-validation suggests that the accuracy of this gap filling approach surpasses that of conventional gap filling methods. Designed primarily for urban energy system modeling, CHUWD-H v1.0 should also support historical urban meteorological and climate studies, including the validation and evaluation of urban climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct high-altitude observations of 2-methyltetrols in the gas- and particle phase in air masses from Amazonia

We present direct observations of 2-methyltetrol (C 5 H 12 O 4 ) in the gas- and particle phase from the deployment of a Filter Inlet for Gases and Aerosols coupled to a Time-of-Flight Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer (FIGAERO-CIMS) during the Southern Hemisphere High Altitude Experiment on Particle Nucleation and Growth (SALTENA), which took place between December 2017 and June 2018 at the high-altitude Global Atmosphere Watch station Chacaltaya (CHC) located at 5240 m a s l in the Bolivian Andes. 2-Methyltetrol signals were dominant in a factor resulting from Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) identified as influenced by Amazon emissions. We combine these observations with investigations of isoprene oxidation chemistry and uptake in an isolated deep convective cloud in the Amazon using a photochemical box model with coupled cloud microphysics and show that, likely, 2-methyltetrol is taken up by hydrometeors or formed in situ in the convective cloud, and then transported in the particle phase in the cold environment of the Amazon outflow and to the station, where it partially evaporates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Chemical and morphological evolution of hybrid conversion coatings in low-Earth orbit space environment

Understanding how protective coatings respond to the harsh low-Earth orbit (LEO) environment is essential for ensuring the safety, longevity, and cost-effectiveness of spacecraft. In particular, identifying environmentally friendly, non-chromate alternatives that can maintain performance under such conditions has both technological and regulatory significance. This study investigates the environmental stability of zirconium-based hybrid conversion coatings with Cu additives (Cu10 and Cu20) applied to cold-rolled steel, tested in the Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) outside the International Space Station (ISS). Chemical and morphological analyses were carried out using a combination of electron microscopy and X-ray spectroscopy techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), scanning transmission electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (STEM-EDS), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy. After exposure outside the ISS, all coatings remained structurally intact, with all exhibiting a uniform Zr-rich matrix and embedded Cu-rich clusters, while a thin Si-rich surface layer developed from interaction with space environments. Depth-resolved XPS showed a layered structure with CuO on the surface, Cu 2 O, and partial Zr(IV) reduction near Cu-rich sites, evidence of Atomic Oxygen (AO)-driven surface oxidation. These results demonstrate that Cu–Zr coatings maintain their chemical integrity and microstructure in harsh space environments, offering a non-chromate alternative for long-term aerospace protection. These insights provide valuable guidance for developing next-generation protective coatings that combine environmental sustainability with the reliability required for future aerospace and orbital applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Probing jet base emission of M87* with the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope observations

We investigate the presence and spatial characteristics of the jet base emission in M87* at 230 GHz, enabled by the significantly enhanced (u,v) coverage in the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The integration of the 12−m Kitt Peak Telescope (USA) and NOEMA (France) stations into the array introduces two critical intermediate-length baselines to SMT (USA) and IRAM 30−m (Spain), providing sensitivity to emission structures at spatial scales of ∼250 μas and ∼2500 μas (∼ 0.02 pc and ∼ 0.02 pc). Without these new baselines, previous EHT observations of the source in 2017 and 2018 lacked the capability to constrain emission on large scales, where a “missing flux” of order ∼1 Jy is expected to reside. To probe these scales, we analyzed closure phases–robust against station-based gain calibration errors–and model the jet base emission using a simple Gaussian component offset from the compact ring emission at spatial separations > 100 μas. Our analysis revealed a Gaussian feature centered at (ΔRA ≈ 320 μ as, ΔDec. ≈ 60 μ as), projected separation of ≈ 5500 AU, with an estimated flux density of only ∼60 mJy, implying that most of the missing flux identified in previous EHT studies had to originate from different, larger scales. Brighter emission at the relevant spatial scales is firmly ruled out, and the data do not favor more complex models. This component aligns with the inferred position of the large-scale jet and is therefore physically consistent with the emission of the jet base. While our findings point to detectable jet base emission at 230 GHz, the limited coverage provided by only two intermediate baselines limits our ability to robustly reconstruct its morphology. Consequently, we treated the recovered Gaussian as an upper limit on the jet base flux density. Future EHT observations with expanded intermediate baseline coverage will be essential to constrain the structure and nature of this component with higher precision.

accretion, accretion disks↗

River Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Using Machine Learning Models and Wireless Sensor Measurements

Simultaneous flooding&heat and droughts&heat events can potentially destabilize hydro-meteorological conditions to deteriorate the water quality of Neches River. Machine learning (ML) models utilizing wireless sensor measurements have been applied to predict water quality and optimize various water management strategies. This study aims to develop ML models to predict dissolved oxygen (DO) prediction under various hydro-meteorological conditions and enhance water management decision-making. Wireless sensor measurements of DO, water temperature, sample depth, conductivity, turbidity, and pH, along with discharge from the United States Geological Survey stations, are collected for model inputs at the Pine Island Bayou C749 station (PIB-C749) and Neches River Saltwater Barrier (SWB). Multilayer perceptron neural networks, recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) with and without attention mechanism (AT) are tested to determine the best model, which is applied the rolling forecast method to predict 14-day DO. Traditional and recurrent transfer learning (TL and RTL) methods are adopted to overcome insufficient data at the SWB. The input feature importance analysis using the integrated gradients (IG) algorithm is applied to determine dominant inputs. The results show LSTM-based models are capable handling long sequential data. AT-BiLSTM and RTL-LSTM demonstrate the best performance at the PIB-C749 (RMSE=0.054) and the SWB (RMSE=0.028), respectively. TL and RTL methods significantly improve model performance at the SWB. DO, temperature, and pH show higher importance, consistent with hydrodynamics and water chemistry. Both best models are applied to predict 14-day DO and demonstrate reasonable performance for decision-making. Hydro-meteorological conditions of 2017 flood and 2012 drought events are simulated and reveal that possible hypoxia occurs after flooding due to increasing temperature and turbidity, and DO concentration decreases significantly under heat and drought conditions. In conclusion, LSTM-based models utilizing wireless sensor data can be a timely and effective approach to make appropriate decisions on water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Compatibility of Natural Gas Pipeline Materials with Hydrogen, CO 2 , and Ammonia

Here, in this study, we examine the efficacy of repurposing natural gas (NG) pipelines for transporting hydrogen blends (with NG), ammonia, and CO 2 (gaseous and supercritical) from the standpoint of materials compatibility. Some information pertaining to component performance is also included, especially those components critical for pressurization and monitoring of flow. A listing of critical pipeline components and materials was developed, and their compatibilities was assessed for each fluid or gas type based on known compatibilities. Results indicate that pipeline materials should be suitable for gaseous CO 2 and anhydrous ammonia, but hydrogen blends greater than 12% may be problematic. Current compressor/regulator stations will not be suitable for use with either supercritical CO 2 or ammonia. Important knowledge gaps were identified, including (1) polymer performance with hydrogen/NG blends at low pressures, (2) compressor/regulator station polymers and epoxy coating materials with supercritical CO 2 , and (3) metal performances of hydrogen/NG blends at low pressures.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Installation and commissioning of the ion source systems for the new spallation neutron source 2.5 MeV injector

The U.S. Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) is a state-of-the-art neutron scattering facility delivering the world’s most intense pulsed neutron beams to a wide array of instruments, which are used to conduct investigations in many fields of engineering, physics, chemistry, material science, and biology. Neutrons are produced by spallation of liquid Hg by the bombardment of short (∼1 µs), intense (∼35 A) pulses of protons delivered at 60 Hz by an accumulator ring which is fed by a high-intensity, 1 GeV, H− LINAC (linear accelerator). This facility has operated nearly continuously since 2006 but has recently undergone a 4-month maintenance period, which featured a complete replacement of the 2.5 MeV injector feeding the LINAC. The new injector was developed at ORNL in an off-line beam test facility and consists of an ion source, low energy beam transport, and a Radio Frequency Quadrupole (RFQ). This report first describes the installed configuration of the new injector detailing the ion source system. The first beam current, RFQ transmission, emittance, and energy measurements from the injector installed on the SNS are reported. These data not only show a significant performance improvement for our existing facility but will also make accessible the higher beam current requirements for future SNS upgrade projects: the proton power upgrade and second target station.

Welton, R. F.↗

Neutron radiation hardness of aluminum gallium nitride UV LEDs at various wavelengths

Radiation hard diagnostics are critical to the success of nuclear fusion at National Ignition Facility, Z, ITER, and prolonged space explorations. We have first demonstrated the exceptional proton radiation hardness of initial GaN devices and qualified their space flight and deployment for missions such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna and International Space Station. We have further conducted neutron radiation hardness experiments at Los Alamos Neutron Science Center by opening a new high fluence beam station. During 2014–2016, we irradiated multiple Aluminum Gallium Nitride (AlGaN) LEDs with a maximum fluence of 2.4 × 1013 neutrons/cm2 in 3 years and generated 54 161 current–voltage (I–V) scan traces. Our data processing program analyzes each and all I–V traces. In addition, we retrieved local temperature records to analyze and remove temperature effects in the outdoor environment. The I–V curve families of AlGaN UV LEDs with emitting wavelengths of 265, 275, and 310 nm were compared. The I–V curves of 265 nm AlGaN UV LEDs have the smallest deviations from the average value, while the I–V curves for 310 nm AlGaN LEDs showed the largest deviations from the average value. We have reached another important recommendation for the optimal use of multiple AlGaN optoelectronic devices or imaging arrays for inertially confined fusion diagnostics: Shorter wavelength devices at 265 nm exhibit more consistent radiation hardness performance than the 310 nm devices. Higher aluminum content LEDs or AlxGa1–xN devices with higher mole fraction x for generating shorter wavelengths have better radiation hardness for fusion diagnostics.

Sun, K. -X. (ORCID:0000000224659235)↗

The Complex, Unique, and Powerful Imaging Instrument for Dynamics (CUPI 2 D) at the Spallation Neutron Source (invited)

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory is planning to build the Second Target Station (STS) at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS). STS will host a suite of novel instruments that complement the First Target Station’s beamline capabilities by offering an increased flux for cold neutrons and a broader wavelength bandwidth. A novel neutron imaging beamline, named the Complex, Unique, and Powerful Imaging Instrument for Dynamics (CUPI 2 D), is among the first eight instruments that will be commissioned at STS as part of the construction project. CUPI 2 D is designed for a broad range of neutron imaging scientific applications, such as energy storage and conversion (batteries and fuel cells), materials science and engineering (additive manufacturing, superalloys, and archaeometry), nuclear materials (novel cladding materials, nuclear fuel, and moderators), cementitious materials, biology/medical/dental applications (regenerative medicine and cancer), and life sciences (plant–soil interactions and nutrient dynamics). The innovation of this instrument lies in the utilization of a high flux of wavelength-separated cold neutrons to perform real time in situ neutron grating interferometry and Bragg edge imaging—with a wavelength resolution of δλ/λ ≈ 0.3%—simultaneously when required, across a broad range of length and time scales. This manuscript briefly describes the science enabled at CUPI 2 D based on its unique capabilities. The preliminary beamline performance, a design concept, and future development requirements are also presented.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗