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NASA NTRS1999

GISS Analysis of Surface Temperature Change

We describe the current GISS analysis of surface temperature change for the period 1880-1999 based primarily on meteorological station measurements. The global surface temperature in 1998 was the warmest in the period of instrumental data. The rate of temperature change was higher in the past 25 years than at any previous time in the period of instrumental data. The warmth of 1998 was too large and pervasive to be fully accounted for by the recent El Nino. Despite cooling in the first half of 1999, we suggest that the mean global temperature, averaged over 2-3 years, has moved to a higher level, analogous to the increase that occurred in the late 1970s. Warming in the United States over the past 50 years has been smaller than in most of the world, and over that period there was a slight cooling trend in the Eastern United States and the neighboring Atlantic Ocean. The spatial and temporal patterns of the temperature change suggest that more than one mechanism was involved in this regional cooling. The cooling trend in the United States, which began after the 1930s and is associated with ocean temperature change patterns, began to reverse after 1979. We suggest that further warming in the United States to a level rivaling the 1930s is likely in the next decade, but reliable prediction requires better understanding of decadal oscillations of ocean temperature.

Hansen, J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Characterization of Climate Change and Variability with GPS

We compared zonal mean specific humidity derived from the 21 June-4 July 1995 Global Positioning System (GPS)/MET occultation observations with that derived from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global analyses. The GPS/MET results indicate a drier troposphere, especially near the subtropical tradewind inversion. A small, moist bias in the GPS/MET upper northern-hemisphere troposphere compared to ECMWF may be due to a small radiosonde temperature bias. A diagram shows the difference (g/kg) between the GPS/MET zonal mean specific humidity and that for June-August derived from 1963-1973 radiosondes. Although the observing period is short, GPS and ECMWF results both indicate a significantly wetter boundary layer at most latitudes consistent with decadal trends observed in radiosonde data. GPS/MET results exhibit higher tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE), suggesting a more vigorous tropical Hadley circulation. Drier, free troposphere air in the descending branches of the Hadley circulation is due in part to a moist radiosonde bias but may also reflect some negative moisture feedback. Using 1992-1997 ground GPS observations and recent advancements in GPS technology, we removed an apparent altimetric drift (-1.2 +/- 0.4 mm/yr) due to columnar water vapor from the Topography (Ocean) Experiment (TOPEX) microwave radiometer, which brought the TOPEX mean sea level change estimates into better agreement with historical tide gauge records, suggesting global mean sea level is rising at a rate of 1.5-2.0 mm/yr. We can also discern a statistically significant increase of 0.2 +/- 0.1 kg/square m/yr in mean columnar water vapor over the ocean from 1992-1997. Optimal fingerprinting can be used for the detection and attribution of tropospheric warming due to an anthropogenic greenhouse. Optimal fingerprinting distinguishes between different types of signals according to their spatial and temporal patterns, while minimizing the influence of natural climate variability. S. Leroy concludes that the signal-to-noise ratio of global warming detection increases by unity approximately every 10 years if a single oceanic region is chosen. Less time for detection is likely when many global regions are considered simultaneously. GPS occultation constellations allow the possibility of detecting small changes in upper air temperature with inconsequential calibration errors, making occultation an ideal data type for global warming detection studies. Our initial study of a 22-GHz satellite-satellite occultation system predicts upper troposphere moisture sensitivities of 3-5 ppmv and 1-2 percent in the middle and lower troposphere. Additional information contained in original.

Kursinski, R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

BOREAS AFM-12 1-km AVHRR Seasonal Land Cover Classification

The Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Airborne Fluxes and Meteorology (AFM)-12 team's efforts focused on regional scale Surface Vegetation and Atmosphere (SVAT) modeling to improve parameterization of the heterogeneous BOREAS landscape for use in larger scale Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This regional land cover data set was developed as part of a multitemporal one-kilometer Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) land cover analysis approach that was used as the basis for regional land cover mapping, fire disturbance-regeneration, and multiresolution land cover scaling studies in the boreal forest ecosystem of central Canada. This land cover classification was derived by using regional field observations from ground and low-level aircraft transits to analyze spectral-temporal clusters that were derived from an unsupervised cluster analysis of monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image composites (April-September 1992). This regional data set was developed for use by BOREAS investigators, especially those involved in simulation modeling, remote sensing algorithm development, and aircraft flux studies. Based on regional field data verification, this multitemporal one-kilometer AVHRR land cover mapping approach was effective in characterizing the biome-level land cover structure, embedded spatially heterogeneous landscape patterns, and other types of key land cover information of interest to BOREAS modelers.The land cover mosaics in this classification include: (1) wet conifer mosaic (low, medium, and high tree stand density), (2) mixed coniferous-deciduous forest (80% coniferous, codominant, and 80% deciduous), (3) recent visible bum, vegetation regeneration, or rock outcrops-bare ground-sparsely vegetated slow regeneration bum (four classes), (4) open water and grassland marshes, and (5) general agricultural land use/ grasslands (three classes). This land cover mapping approach did not detect small subpixel-scale landscape features such as fens, bogs, and small water bodies. Field observations and comparisons with Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) suggest a minimum effective resolution of these land cover classes in the range of three to four kilometers, in part, because of the daily to monthly compositing process. In general, potential accuracy limitations are mitigated by the use of conservative parameterization rules such as aggregation of predominant land cover classes within minimum horizontal grid cell sizes of ten kilometers. The AFM-12 one-kilometer AVHRR seasonal land cover classification data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).

Steyaert, Lou↗
NASA NTRS2001

The NOAA-NASA CZCS Reanalysis Effort

Satellite observations of global ocean chlorophyll span over two decades. However, incompatibilities between processing algorithms prevent us from quantifying natural variability. We applied a comprehensive reanalysis to the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) archive, called the NOAA-NASA CZCS Reanalysis (NCR) Effort. NCR consisted of 1) algorithm improvement (AI), where CZCS processing algorithms were improved using modernized atmospheric correction and bio-optical algorithms, and 2) blending, where in situ data were incorporated into the CZCS AI to minimize residual errors. The results indicated major improvement over the previously available CZCS archive. Global spatial and seasonal patterns of NCR chlorophyll indicated remarkable correspondence with modern sensors, suggesting compatibility. The NCR permits quantitative analyses of interannual and interdecadal trends in global ocean chlorophyll.

Gregg, Watson W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evaluation and Improvement of Earth Radiation Budget Data Sets

The tasks performed during this grant are as follows: (1) Advanced scan patterns for enhanced spatial and angular sampling of ground targets; (2) Inter-calibration of polar orbiter in low Earth orbits (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) broadband radiance measurements; (3) Synergism between CERES on TRMM and Terra; (4) Improved surface solar irradiance measurements; (5) SW flux observations from Ultra Long Duration Balloons at 35 km altitude; (6) Nighttime cloud property retrieval algorithm; (7) Retrievals of overlapped and mixed-phase clouds.

Haeffelin, Martial P. A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Remote Sensing Information Science Research

This document is the final report summarizing research conducted by the Remote Sensing Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara under National Aeronautics and Space Administration Research Grant NAG5-10457. This document describes work performed during the period of 1 March 2001 thorough 30 September 2002. This report includes a survey of research proposed and performed within RSRU and the UCSB Geography Department during the past 25 years. A broad suite of RSRU research conducted under NAG5-10457 is also described under themes of Applied Research Activities and Information Science Research. This research includes: 1. NASA ESA Research Grant Performance Metrics Reporting. 2. Global Data Set Thematic Accuracy Analysis. 3. ISCGM/Global Map Project Support. 4. Cooperative International Activities. 5. User Model Study of Global Environmental Data Sets. 6. Global Spatial Data Infrastructure. 7. CIESIN Collaboration. 8. On the Value of Coordinating Landsat Operations. 10. The California Marine Protected Areas Database: Compilation and Accuracy Issues. 11. Assessing Landslide Hazard Over a 130-Year Period for La Conchita, California Remote Sensing and Spatial Metrics for Applied Urban Area Analysis, including: (1) IKONOS Data Processing for Urban Analysis. (2) Image Segmentation and Object Oriented Classification. (3) Spectral Properties of Urban Materials. (4) Spatial Scale in Urban Mapping. (5) Variable Scale Spatial and Temporal Urban Growth Signatures. (6) Interpretation and Verification of SLEUTH Modeling Results. (7) Spatial Land Cover Pattern Analysis for Representing Urban Land Use and Socioeconomic Structures. 12. Colorado River Flood Plain Remote Sensing Study Support. 13. African Rainfall Modeling and Assessment. 14. Remote Sensing and GIS Integration.

Clarke, Keith C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Applications of Sea-Ice Motion and Deformation Derived from Satellite Data

QuikSCAT backscatter, AMSR and DMSP SSM/I radiance data have been used to derive sea ice motion for both the Arctic and Antarctic region using the wavelet analysis tracking method. All results from QuikSCAT, AMSR and SSM5 are compatible with buoys and can then be merged by data fusion method to generate composite sea ice motion maps for more complete coverage. Furthermore, based on this merged data set daily sea-ice deformation (shear, and convergence) maps have been produced and show consistent spatial and temporal patterns. Temporal correlation maps between ice deformation and SSM/II ice concentration show interesting results in the Arctic, especially the coast area. In this study, principal component analysis for both the merged ice tracking result from satellite data and pressure field from buoy have also been examined for the relationship between the principal components and eigenvectors from these two data sets. While the result shows that principal components of modes 1 and 2 from two data sets are highly correlated which confirms that wind forcing is a major factor driving the ice drift, it also reveals that other high energy modes are not highly correlated which maybe caused by coastal effects. Principal component analysis of Arctic sea-ice motion during fall/winter period in different years shows the reverse of dominant modes or patterns is related to the Arctic Oscillation.

Liu, Antony K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Oceanic Tidal Mixing As a Contributor to Milankovitch-scale Climate Change

We propose that changes in the magnitude of oceanic tidal mixing on long time scales is an important, but previously unrecognized, contributor to global climate change. it is well known that Earth's orbital and rotational state changes significantly on 10(exp 4)-10(exp 5) year time scales, and that this influences the spatial and temporal pattern of incident radiation. It is widely supposed that climatic variations on these same time scales are, in large part, a response of the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system to this radiative forcing. Our proposal is that variations in the luni-solar tidal potential, induced by these same orbital and rotational variations, influences oceanic mixing and thus modulates meridional heat transport, by amounts which are competitive with the radiative forcing. There are some obvious differences between tidal potential and insolation. First is that the Sun and Moon both contribute to tides, whereas the radiation is entirely of solar origin. Second is that the Earth is transparent to gravity but opaque to radiation. Clipping associated with this opacity makes the radiation pattern temporal spectrum rather more complex than the tidal spectrum. A third point is that solar radiation directly delivers energy to Earth's surface whereas tidal mixing will only expedite lateral transport of heat in association with oceanic thermohaline circulation. The diurnal average insolation pattern is best parameterized via a Fourier series in time of year and Legendre polynomials in sine of latitude. Our present focus will be on the annual average terms. The Legendre degree n=0 term describes the global average insolation, and is nearly constant. The degree n=l term describes differences between northern and southern hemispheres, and the annual mean is zero. The degree n=2 term is the main contributor to the equator to pole variations, and varies with obliquity and orbital eccentricity, with the obliquity variation dominating. The lowest order decomposition of the tidal potential recognizes 3 constituents: semi-diurnal, diurnal, and long period, with solar and lunar contributions to each. Our present focus will be on long term variations in the mean square amplitude of the semi-diurnal constituent, with averaging over all the short period variations. For the solar tide that includes the day and year. For the lunar tide it includes the day, month, year, and the apsidal (8.85 year) and nodal (18.6 year) periods. We present calculations of the variations in radiative and tidal forcing for the past 3 million years. The two signals are quite similar. Both vary by approximately 1% of their respective mean values, are dominated by obliquity variations, and exhibit only secondary influence from orbital eccentricity.

Munk, Walter↗
NASA NTRS2004

Neural Network for Image-to-Image Control of Optical Tweezers

A method is discussed for using neural networks to control optical tweezers. Neural-net outputs are combined with scaling and tiling to generate 480 by 480-pixel control patterns for a spatial light modulator (SLM). The SLM can be combined in various ways with a microscope to create movable tweezers traps with controllable profiles. The neural nets are intended to respond to scattered light from carbon and silicon carbide nanotube sensors. The nanotube sensors are to be held by the traps for manipulation and calibration. Scaling and tiling allow the 100 by 100-pixel maximum resolution of the neural-net software to be applied in stages to exploit the full 480 by 480-pixel resolution of the SLM. One of these stages is intended to create sensitive null detectors for detecting variations in the scattered light from the nanotube sensors.

Decker, Arthur J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Spaceborne microwave remote sensing of seasonal freeze-thaw processes in theterrestrial high l atitudes : relationships with land-atmosphere CO2 exchange

Landscape transitions between seasonally frozen and thawed conditions occur each year over roughly 50 million square kilometers of Earth's Northern Hemisphere. These relatively abrupt transitions represent the closest analog to a biospheric and hydrologic on/off switch existing in nature, affecting surface meteorological conditions, ecological trace gas dynamics, energy exchange and hydrologic activity profoundly. We utilize time series satellite-borne microwave remote sensing measurements from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) to examine spatial and temporal variability in seasonal freeze/thaw cycles for the pan-Arctic basin and Alaska. Regional measurements of spring thaw timing are derived using daily brightness temperature measurements from the 19 GHz, horizontally polarized channel, separately for overpasses with 6 AM and 6 PM equatorial crossing times. Spatial and temporal patterns in regional freeze/thaw dynamics show distinct differences between North America and Eurasia, and boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes. Annual anomalies in the timing of thawing in spring also correspond closely to seasonal atmospheric CO2 concentration anomalies derived from NOAA CMDL arctic and subarctic monitoring stations. Classification differences between AM and PM overpass data average approximately 5 days for the region, though both appear to be effective surrogates for monitoring annual growing seasons at high latitudes.

Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I)carbon cycle↗
NASA NTRS2004

Spaceborne Microwave Remote Sensing of Seasonal Freeze-Thaw Processes in the Terrestrial High Latitudes: Relationships with Land-Atmosphere CO2 exchange

Landscape transitions between seasonally frozen and thawed conditions occur each year over roughly 50 million square kilometers of Earth's Northern Hemisphere. These relatively abrupt transitions represent the closest analog to a biospheric and hydrologic on/off switch existing in nature, affecting surface meteorological conditions, ecological trace gas dynamics, energy exchange and hydrologic activity profoundly. We utilize time series satellite-borne microwave remote sensing measurements from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) to examine spatial and temporal variability in seasonal freeze/thaw cycles for the pan-Arctic basin and Alaska. Regional measurements of spring thaw timing are derived using daily brightness temperature measurements from the 19 GHz, horizontally polarized channel, separately for overpasses with 6 AM and 6 PM equatorial crossing times. Spatial and temporal patterns in regional freeze/thaw dynamics show distinct differences between North America and Eurasia, and boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes. Annual anomalies in the timing of thawing in spring also correspond closely to seasonal atmospheric CO2 concentration anomalies derived from NOAA CMDL arctic and subarctic monitoring stations. Classification differences between AM and PM overpass data average approximately 5 days for the region, though both appear to be effective surrogates for monitoring annual growing seasons at high latitudes.

net primary products↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Fire Severity in Black Spruce Stands in the Alaskan Boreal Forest Using Spectral and Non-Spectral Geospatial Data

Biomass burning in the Alaskan interior is already a major disturbance and source of carbon emissions, and is likely to increase in response to the warming and drying predicted for the future climate. In addition to quantifying changes to the spatial and temporal patterns of burned areas, observing variations in severity is the key to studying the impact of changes to the fire regime on carbon cycling, energy budgets, and post-fire succession. Remote sensing indices of fire severity have not consistently been well-correlated with in situ observations of important severity characteristics in Alaskan black spruce stands, including depth of burning of the surface organic layer. The incorporation of ancillary data such as in situ observations and GIS layers with spectral data from Landsat TM/ETM+ greatly improved efforts to map the reduction of the organic layer in burned black spruce stands. Using a regression tree approach, the R2 of the organic layer depth reduction models was 0.60 and 0.55 (pb0.01) for relative and absolute depth reduction, respectively. All of the independent variables used by the regression tree to estimate burn depth can be obtained independently of field observations. Implementation of a gradient boosting algorithm improved the R2 to 0.80 and 0.79 (pb0.01) for absolute and relative organic layer depth reduction, respectively. Independent variables used in the regression tree model of burn depth included topographic position, remote sensing indices related to soil and vegetation characteristics, timing of the fire event, and meteorological data. Post-fire organic layer depth characteristics are determined for a large (N200,000 ha) fire to identify areas that are potentially vulnerable to a shift in post-fire succession. This application showed that 12% of this fire event experienced fire severe enough to support a change in post-fire succession. We conclude that non-parametric models and ancillary data are useful in the modeling of the surface organic layer fire depth. Because quantitative differences in post-fire surface characteristics do not directly influence spectral properties, these modeling techniques provide better information than the use of remote sensing data alone.

Barrett, K.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Coordinating an Autonomous Earth-Observing Sensorweb

A system of software has been developed to coordinate the operation of an autonomous Earth-observing sensorweb. Sensorwebs are collections of sensor units scattered over large regions to gather data on spatial and temporal patterns of physical, chemical, or biological phenomena in those regions. Each sensor unit is a node in a data-gathering/ data-communication network that spans a region of interest. In this case, the region is the entire Earth, and the sensorweb includes multiple terrestrial and spaceborne sensor units. In addition to acquiring data for scientific study, the sensorweb is required to give timely notice of volcanic eruptions, floods, and other hazardous natural events. In keeping with the inherently modular nature of the sensory, communication, and data-processing hardware, the software features a flexible, modular architecture that facilitates expansion of the network, customization of conditions that trigger alarms of hazardous natural events, and customization of responses to alarms. The soft8 NASA Tech Briefs, July 2006 ware facilitates access to multiple sources of data on an event of scientific interest, enables coordinated use of multiple sensors in rapid reaction to detection of an event, and facilitates the tracking of spacecraft operations, including tracking of the acquisition, processing, and downlinking of requested data.

Sherwood, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2011

Chlorophyll-a Algorithms for Oligotrophic Oceans: A Novel Approach Based on Three-Band Reflectance Difference

A new empirical algorithm is proposed to estimate surface chlorophyll-a concentrations (Chl) in the global ocean for Chl less than or equal to 0.25 milligrams per cubic meters (approximately 77% of the global ocean area). The algorithm is based on a color index (CI), defined as the difference between remote sensing reflectance (R(sub rs), sr(sup -1) in the green and a reference formed linearly between R(sub rs) in the blue and red. For low Chl waters, in situ data showed a tighter (and therefore better) relationship between CI and Chl than between traditional band-ratios and Chl, which was further validated using global data collected concurrently by ship-borne and SeaWiFS satellite instruments. Model simulations showed that for low Chl waters, compared with the band-ratio algorithm, the CI-based algorithm (CIA) was more tolerant to changes in chlorophyll-specific backscattering coefficient, and performed similarly for different relative contributions of non-phytoplankton absorption. Simulations using existing atmospheric correction approaches further demonstrated that the CIA was much less sensitive than band-ratio algorithms to various errors induced by instrument noise and imperfect atmospheric correction (including sun glint and whitecap corrections). Image and time-series analyses of SeaWiFS and MODIS/Aqua data also showed improved performance in terms of reduced image noise, more coherent spatial and temporal patterns, and consistency between the two sensors. The reduction in noise and other errors is particularly useful to improve the detection of various ocean features such as eddies. Preliminary tests over MERIS and CZCS data indicate that the new approach should be generally applicable to all existing and future ocean color instruments.

Hu, Chuanmin↗
NASA NTRS2012

A New Retrieval Algorithm for OMI NO2: Tropospheric Results and Comparisons with Measurements and Models

Nitrogen oxides (NOx =NO+NO2) are important atmospheric trace constituents that impact tropospheric air pollution chemistry and air quality. We have developed a new NASA algorithm for the retrieval of stratospheric and tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities using measurements from the nadir-viewing Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA's Aura satellite. The new products rely on an improved approach to stratospheric NO2 column estimation and stratosphere-troposphere separation and a new monthly NO2 climatology based on the NASA Global Modeling Initiative chemistry-transport model. The retrieval does not rely on daily model profiles, minimizing the influence of a priori information. We evaluate the retrieved tropospheric NO2 columns using surface in situ (e.g., AQS/EPA), ground-based (e.g., DOAS), and airborne measurements (e.g., DISCOVER-AQ). The new, improved OMI tropospheric NO2 product is available at high spatial resolution for the years 200S-present. We believe that this product is valuable for the evaluation of chemistry-transport models, examining the spatial and temporal patterns of NOx emissions, constraining top-down NOx inventories, and for the estimation of NOx lifetimes.

Swartz, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Clouds Observed by MODIS Onboard the Terra and Aqua Satellites

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was developed by NASA and launched aboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18, 1999 and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002. A comprehensive set of remote sensing algorithms for the retrieval of cloud physical and optical properties have enabled over twelve years of continuous observations of cloud properties from Terra and over nine years from Aqua. The archived products from these algorithms include 1 km pixel-level (Level-2) and global gridded Level-3 products. In addition to an extensive cloud mask, products include cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure, effective emissivity), cloud thermodynamic phase, cloud optical and microphysical parameters (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path), as well as derived statistics. Results include the latitudinal distribution of cloud optical and radiative properties for both liquid water and ice clouds, as well as latitudinal distributions of cloud top pressure and cloud top temperature. MODIS finds the cloud fraction, as derived by the cloud mask, is nearly identical during the day and night, with only modest diurnal variation. Globally, the cloud fraction derived by the MODIS cloud mask is approx.67%, with somewhat more clouds over land during the afternoon and less clouds over ocean in the afternoon, with very little difference in global cloud cover between Terra and Aqua. Overall, cloud fraction over land is approx.55%, with a distinctive seasonal cycle, whereas the ocean cloudiness is much higher, around 72%, with much reduced seasonal variation. Cloud top pressure and temperature have distinct spatial and temporal patterns, and clearly reflect our understanding of the global cloud distribution. High clouds are especially prevalent over the northern hemisphere continents between 30 and 50 . Aqua and Terra have comparable zonal cloud top pressures, with Aqua having somewhat higher clouds (cloud top pressures lower by 100 hPa) over land due to afternoon deep convection. The coldest cloud tops (colder than 230 K) generally occur over Antarctica and the high clouds in the tropics (ITCZ and the deep convective clouds over the western tropical Pacific and Indian sub-continent).

King, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Satellite-based Assessment of Climate Controls on US Burned Area

Climate regulates fire activity through the buildup and drying of fuels and the conditions for fire ignition and spread. Understanding the dynamics of contemporary climate-fire relationships at national and sub-national scales is critical to assess the likelihood of changes in future fire activity and the potential options for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we conducted the first national assessment of climate controls on US fire activity using two satellite-based estimates of monthly burned area (BA), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED, 1997 2010) and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS, 1984 2009) BA products. For each US National Climate Assessment (NCA) region, we analyzed the relationships between monthly BA and potential evaporation (PE) derived from reanalysis climate data at 0.5 resolution. US fire activity increased over the past 25 yr, with statistically significant increases in MTBS BA for entire US and the Southeast and Southwest NCA regions. Monthly PE was strongly correlated with US fire activity, yet the climate driver of PE varied regionally. Fire season temperature and shortwave radiation were the primary controls on PE and fire activity in the Alaska, while water deficit (precipitation PE) was strongly correlated with fire activity in the Plains regions and Northwest US. BA and precipitation anomalies were negatively correlated in all regions, although fuel-limited ecosystems in the Southern Plains and Southwest exhibited positive correlations with longer lead times (6 12 months). Fire season PE in creased from the 1980s 2000s, enhancing climate-driven fire risk in the southern and western US where PE-BA correlations were strongest. Spatial and temporal patterns of increasing fire season PE and BA during the 1990s 2000s highlight the potential sensitivity of US fire activity to climate change in coming decades. However, climatefire relationships at the national scale are complex, based on the diversity of fire types, ecosystems, and ignition sources within each NCA region. Changes in the seasonality or magnitude of climate anomalies are therefore unlikely to result in uniform changes in US fire activity.

Morton, D. C.↗