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Parameterization retrieval of trace gas volume mixing ratios from Airborne MAX-DOAS

We present a parameterization retrieval of volume mixing ratios (VMRs) from differential slant column density (dSCD) measurements by Airborne Multi-AXis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (AMAX-DOAS). The method makes use of the fact that horizontally recorded limb spectra (elevation angle 0°) are strongly sensitive to the atmospheric layer at instrument altitude. These limb spectra are analyzed using reference spectra that largely cancel out column contributions from above and below the instrument, so that the resulting limb dSCDs, i.e., the column integrated concentration with respect to a reference spectrum, are almost exclusively sensitive to the atmospheric layers around instrument altitude. The conversion of limb dSCDs into VMRs is then realized by calculating box air mass factors (Box-AMFs) for a Rayleigh atmosphere and applying a scaling factor constrained by O 4 dSCDs to account for aerosol extinction. An iterative VMR retrieval scheme corrects for trace gas profile shape effects. Benefits of this method are (1) a fast conversion that only requires the computation of Box-AMFs in a Rayleigh atmosphere; (2) neither local aerosol extinction nor the slant column density in the DOAS reference (SCD ref ) needs to be known; and (3) VMRs can be retrieved for every measurement point along a flight track, thus increasing statistics and adding flexibility to capture concentration gradients. Sensitivity studies are performed for bromine monoxide (BrO), iodine monoxide (IO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), using (1) simulated dSCD data for different trace gas and aerosol profiles and (2) field measurements from the Tropical Ocean tRoposphere Exchange of Reactive halogen species and Oxygenated VOC (TORERO) field experiment. For simulated data in a Rayleigh atmosphere, the agreement between the VMR from the parameterization method (VMR para ) and the true VMR (VMR true ) is excellent for all trace gases. Offsets, slopes and R 2 values for the linear fit of VMR para over VMR true are, respectively (0.008 ± 0.001) pptv, 0.988 ± 0.001, 0.987 for BrO; (-0.0066 ± 0.0001) pptv, 1.0021 ± 0.0003, 0.9979 for IO; (-0.17 ± 0.03) pptv, 1.0036 ± 0.0001, 0.9997 for NO 2 . The agreement for atmospheres with aerosol shows comparable R 2 values to the Rayleigh case, but slopes deviate a bit more from one: (0.093 ± 0.002) pptv, 0.933 ± 0.002, 0.907 for BrO; (0.0021 ± 0.0004) pptv, 0.887 ± 0.001, 0.973 for IO; (8.5 ± 0.1) pptv, 0.8302 ± 0.0006, 0.9923 for NO 2 . VMR para from field data are further compared with optimal estimation retrievals (VMR OE ). Least orthogonal distance fit of the data give the following equations: BrO para = (0.1 ± 0.2) pptv + (0.95 ± 0.14) × BrO OE ; IO para = (0.01 ± 0.02) pptv + (1.00 ± 0.12) × IO OE ; NO 2para = (3.9 ± 2.5) pptv + (0.87 ± 0.15) × NO 2OE . Overall, we conclude that the parameterization retrieval is accurate with an uncertainty of 20 % for IO, 30 % for BrO and NO 2 , but not better than 0.05 pptv IO, 0.5 pptv BrO and 10 pptv NO 2 . Finally, the retrieval is applicable over a wide range of atmospheric conditions and measurement geometries and not limited to the interpretation of vertical profile measurements in the remote troposphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP): project goals and experimental design

The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is an international collaborative effort to understand and quantify the uncertainties in atmospheric river (AR) science based on detection algorithm alone. Currently, there are many AR identification and tracking algorithms in the literature with a wide range of techniques and conclusions. ARTMIP strives to provide the community with information on different methodologies and provide guidance on the most appropriate algorithm for a given science question or region of interest. All ARTMIP participants will implement their detection algorithms on a specified common dataset for a defined period of time. The project is divided into two phases: Tier 1 will utilize the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis from January 1980 to June 2017 and will be used as a baseline for all subsequent comparisons. Participation in Tier 1 is required. Tier 2 will be optional and include sensitivity studies designed around specific science questions, such as reanalysis uncertainty and climate change. High-resolution reanalysis and/or model output will be used wherever possible. Proposed metrics include AR frequency, duration, intensity, and precipitation attributable to ARs. Here, we present the ARTMIP experimental design, timeline, project requirements, and a brief description of the variety of methodologies in the current literature. Furthermore, we also present results from our 1-month proof-of-concept trial run designed to illustrate the utility and feasibility of the ARTMIP project.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Development of the tangent linear and adjoint models of the global online chemical transport model MPAS-CO 2 v7.3

We describe the development of the tangent linear (TL) and adjoint models of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-CO 2 transport model, which is a global online chemical transport model developed upon the non-hydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A). The primary goal is to make the model system a valuable research tool for investigating atmospheric carbon transport and inverse modeling. First, we develop the TL code, encompassing all CO 2 transport processes within the MPAS-CO 2 forward model. Then, we construct the adjoint model using a combined strategy involving re-calculation and storage of the essential meteorological variables needed for CO 2 transport. This strategy allows the adjoint model to undertake a long-period integration with moderate memory demands. To ensure accuracy, the TL and adjoint models undergo vigorous verifications through a series of standard tests. The adjoint model, through backward-in-time integration, calculates the sensitivity of atmospheric CO 2 observations to surface CO 2 fluxes and the initial atmospheric CO 2 mixing ratio. To demonstrate the utility of the newly developed adjoint model, we conduct simulations for two types of atmospheric CO 2 observations, namely the tower-based in situ CO 2 mixing ratio and satellite-derived column-averaged CO 2 mixing ratio (X CO 2 ). A comparison between the sensitivity to surface flux calculated by the MPAS-CO 2 adjoint model with its counterpart from CarbonTracker–Lagrange (CT-L) reveals a spatial agreement but notable magnitude differences. These differences, particularly evident for X CO 2 , might be attributed to the two model systems' differences in the simulation configuration, spatial resolution, and treatment of vertical mixing processes. Moreover, this comparison highlights the substantial loss of information in the atmospheric CO 2 observations due to CT-L's spatial domain limitation. Furthermore, the adjoint sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the sensitivities to both surface flux and initial CO 2 conditions spread out throughout the entire Northern Hemisphere within a month. MPAS-CO 2 forward, TL, and adjoint models stand out for their calculation efficiency and variable-resolution capability, making them competitive in computational cost. In conclusion, the successful development of the MPAS-CO 2 TL and adjoint models, and their integration into the MPAS-CO 2 system, establish the possibility of using MPAS's unique features in atmospheric CO 2 transport sensitivity studies and in inverse modeling with advanced methods such as variational data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving thermodynamic nudging in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 2 (EAMv2): strategy and hindcast skills on weather systems

Nudging techniques are commonly employed to constrain atmospheric simulations toward observed states, facilitating model evaluation and sensitivity studies. However, if applied improperly – particularly to thermodynamic variables such as temperature and humidity – nudging can distort physical processes and introduce spurious biases, undermining the credibility of the simulations. This study presents an improved nudging implementation that applies vertically modulated tendencies to reduce adverse impacts on model physics. The framework is tested in version 2 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (EAMv2) using a suite of hindcast simulations nudged toward ERA5 reanalysis. We systematically evaluate the individual and combined effects of nudging wind, temperature, and humidity fields on the model's ability to represent large-scale atmospheric states and high-impact weather systems. Results show that the revised strategy – particularly when nudging temperature and humidity at selected levels – enhances hindcast skill by improving agreement with ERA5 without degrading the hydrological cycle or precipitation processes. Additional improvements in surface temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, and precipitation biases are achieved through targeted nudging of land-surface variables. The proposed approach strengthens the representation of large-scale conditions relevant to tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extratropical cyclones in the low-resolution EAMv2. These findings demonstrate that carefully designed thermodynamic nudging, especially of temperature and humidity, improves the realism of constrained simulations and broadens the utility of nudged EAMv2 for atmospheric modeling, machine learning, and high-impact weather research.

Atmospheric river↗

The sensitivity of the Fitch wind farm parameterization to a three-dimensional planetary boundary layer scheme

Abstract. Wind plant wake impacts can be estimated with a number of simulation methodologies, each with its own fidelity and sensitivity to model inputs. In turbine-free mesoscale simulations, hub-height wind speeds often significantly vary with the choice of a planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. However, the sensitivity of wind plant wakes to a PBL scheme has not been explored because, as of the Weather Research and Forecasting model v4.3.3, wake parameterizations were only compatible with one PBL scheme. We couple the Fitch wind farm parameterization with the new NCAR 3DPBL scheme and compare the resulting wakes to those simulated with a widely used PBL scheme. We simulate a wind plant in pseudo-steady states under idealized stable, neutral, and unstable conditions with matching hub-height wind speeds using two PBL schemes: MYNN and the NCAR 3DPBL. For these idealized scenarios, average hub-height wind speed losses within the plant differ between PBL schemes by between −0.20 and 0.22 m s−1, and correspondingly, capacity factors range between 39.5 %–53.8 %. These simulations suggest that PBL schemes represent a meaningful source of modeled wind resource uncertainty; therefore, we recommend incorporating PBL variability into future wind plant planning sensitivity studies as well as wind forecasting studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Progress in the validation of rotor aerodynamic codes using field data

Within the framework of the fourth phase of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 29, a large comparison exercise between measurements and aeroelastic simulations has been carried out featuring three simulation cases in axial, sheared and yawed inflow conditions. Results were obtained from more than 19 simulation tools originating from 12 institutes, ranging in fidelity from blade element momentum (BEM) to computational fluid dynamics (CFDs) and compared to state-of-the-art field measurements from the 2 MW DanAero turbine. More than 15 different variable types ranging from lifting-line variables to blade surface pressures, loads and velocities have been compared for the different conditions, resulting in over 250 comparison plots. The result is a unique insight into the current status and accuracy of rotor aerodynamic modeling. For axial flow conditions, a good agreement was found between the various code types, where a dedicated grid sensitivity study was necessary for the CFD simulations. However, compared to wind tunnel experiments on rotors featuring controlled conditions, it remains a challenge to achieve good agreement of absolute levels between simulations and measurements in the field. For sheared inflow conditions, uncertainties due to rotational and unsteady effects on airfoil data result in the CFD predictions standing out above the codes that need input of sectional airfoil data. However, it was demonstrated that using CFD-synthesized airfoil data is an effective means to bypass this shortcoming. For yawed flow conditions, it was observed that modeling of the skewed wake effect is still problematic for BEM codes where CFD and free vortex wake codes inherently model the underlying physics correctly. The next step is a comparison in turbulent inflow conditions, which is featured in IEA Wind Task 47. Doing this analysis in cooperation under the auspices of the IEA Wind Technology Collaboration Program (TCP) has led to many mutual benefits for the participants. The large size of the consortium brought ample manpower for the analysis where the learning process by combining several complementary experiences and modeling techniques gave valuable insights that could not be found when the analysis is carried out individually.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modeling Dense Particle Flow in Multistage and Obstructed Flow Receivers Using High Fidelity Simulations

Particles are a leading contender for next-generation, concentrating solar power technologies, and the design of the particle receiver is critical to minimize the levelized cost of electricity. Falling particle receivers (FPRs) are a viable receiver concept, but many new designs feature complex particle obstructions that include dense discrete phase flows. This creates additional challenges for modeling as particle-to-particle interactions (i.e., collisions) and particle drag become more complex. To improve upon existing modeling strategies, a CFD-DEM simulation capability was created by coupling two independent codes: Sierra/Fuego and LAMMPS. A suitable receiver model was then defined using a traditional continuum-based model for the air and a granular model for the particle curtain. A sensitivity study was executed using this model to determine the relevance of different granular model inputs on important quantities of interest in obstructed flow FPRs: the particle velocity and curtain opacity. The study showed that the granular model inputs had little effect on the particle velocity magnitude and curtain opacity after an obstruction.

Mills, Brantley↗

Computational techniques for design optimization of thermal protection systems for the space shuttle vehicle. Volume 1: Final report

Computational techniques were developed and assimilated for the design optimization. The resulting computer program was then used to perform initial optimization and sensitivity studies on a typical thermal protection system (TPS) to demonstrate its application to the space shuttle TPS design. The program was developed in Fortran IV for the CDC 6400 but was subsequently converted to the Fortran V language to be used on the Univac 1108. The program allows for improvement and update of the performance prediction techniques. The program logic involves subroutines which handle the following basic functions: (1) a driver which calls for input, output, and communication between program and user and between the subroutines themselves; (2) thermodynamic analysis; (3) thermal stress analysis; (4) acoustic fatigue analysis; and (5) weights/cost analysis. In addition, a system total cost is predicted based on system weight and historical cost data of similar systems. Two basic types of input are provided, both of which are based on trajectory data. These are vehicle attitude (altitude, velocity, and angles of attack and sideslip), for external heat and pressure loads calculation, and heating rates and pressure loads as a function of time.

Source record↗

Spectral factorization in periodically time-varying systems and application to navigation problems.

Spectral factorization has been used previously to derive the steady-state solution of Kalman filtering equations without iteration for constant coefficient systems. The present work extends the spectral factorization algorithm to time-varying systems having periodic coefficient matrices for cases of both discrete and continuous systems. Time-consuming, expensive iterations of sequential covariance equations are not required to reach the final solution since this is an algebraic algorithm employing existing eigenvalue, eigenvector subroutines. The computer program incorporating the algorithm is suitable for sensitivity studies in formulating navigation and guidance strategies of low-thrust interplanetary missions. The determination of an optimum tracking pattern from an earth station is examined as an example.

Nishimura, T.↗

Optimization of thermal protection systems for the space vehicle. Volume 2: User's manual

The development of the computational techniques for the design optimization of thermal protection systems for the space shuttle vehicle are discussed. The resulting computer program was then used to perform initial optimization and sensitivity studies on a typical thermal protection system (TPS) to demonstrate its application to the space shuttle TPS design. The program was developed in FORTRAN IV for CDC 6400 computer, but it was subsequently converted to the FORTRAN V language to be used on the Univac 1108.

Source record↗

Effects of certain control-system nonlinearities on stability and pointing of an attached double-gimbal experiment package in presence of random crew-motion disturbances

The effects of two types of control-system nonlinearities, sensor deadband and actuator breakout torque, on the pointing capability of a Apollo Telescope Mount (ATM) double-gimbal experiment isolation and control system are investigated. A composite structural model of a flexible experiment package connected through frictionless double gimbals to a flexible carrier vehicle is used for this investigation. Contributions of the primary carrier control system to experiment pointing are neglected. Pointing errors onboard the experiment package due to random crew-motion input into the carrier vehicle are computed. A stability investigation is performed to verify control-system stability with nominal nonlinearities and gains. Indications are that there is no stability problem due to the nonlinearities. A nonlinearity sensitivity study is carried out to determine the effects on pointing accuracy. Its results indicate that nominal ATM control system nonlinearities limit the pointing accuracy to approximately 0.4 arc second in the presence of crew motion. Methods of reducing the error to less than 0.1 arc second are discussed.

Shaughnessy, J. D.↗

An advanced technique for the prediction of decelerator system dynamics.

An advanced two-body six-degree-of-freedom computer model employing an indeterminate structures approach has been developed for the parachute deployment process. The program determines both vehicular and decelerator responses to aerodynamic and physical property inputs. A better insight into the dynamic processes that occur during parachute deployment has been developed. The model is of value in sensitivity studies to isolate important parameters that affect the vehicular response.

Talay, T. A.↗

Implementation of an experimental program to investigate the performance characteristics of OMEGA navigation

A theoretical formulation of differential and composite OMEGA error is presented to establish hypotheses about the functional relationships between various parameters and OMEGA navigational errors. Computer software developed to provide for extensive statistical analysis of the phase data is described. Results from the regression analysis used to conduct parameter sensitivity studies on differential OMEGA error tend to validate the theoretically based hypothesis concerning the relationship between uncorrected differential OMEGA error and receiver separation range and azimuth. Limited results of measurement of receiver repeatability error and line of position measurement error are also presented.

Baxa, E. G., Jr.↗

An assessment of the potential impact of solid-fueled rocket engines in the stratosphere

The effects of shuttle-emitted HCl on stratospheric ozone are reported. A one-dimensional model of the distribution of trace constituents in the stratosphere and mesosphere is described, and chemical reactions and photodissociation rates in the chlorine chemistry are listed. Analysis of mathematical models is presented, and the results show ozone depletion when emissions are considered to be spread uniformly in the horizontal over a hemisphere and an increase in ozone when emissions are considered in a zone 1000 km wide centered at Cape Kennedy. Sensitivity studies to determine the effects of some assumptions in the model and comparisons with nitric oxide reactions are described. The importance of a two-dimensional model for a proper long term study is noted. Lists of reaction rate coefficients and photodissociation rates for the O-H-N system are included.

Whitten, R. C.↗

Worst-error analysis of batch filter and sequential filter in navigation problems

This paper proposes a worst-error analysis for dealing with problems of estimation of spacecraft trajectories in deep space missions. Navigation filters in use assume either constant or stochastic (Markov) models for their estimated parameters. When the actual behavior of these parameters does not follow the pattern of the assumed model, the filters sometimes result in very poor performance. To prepare for such pathological cases, the worst errors of both batch and sequential filters are investigated based on the incremental sensitivity studies of these filters. By finding critical switching instances of non-gravitational accelerations, intensive tracking can be carried out around those instances. Also the worst errors in the target plane provide a measure in assignment of the propellant budget for trajectory corrections. Thus the worst-error study presents useful information as well as practical criteria in establishing the maneuver and tracking strategy of spacecraft's missions.

Nishimura, T.↗

Fuel conservation possibilities for terminal area compatible transport aircraft

Design characteristics that would reduce mission fuel consumption and improve terminal-area operations for advanced transports are discussed. Sensitivity studies of the effects of cruise speed, wing geometry, propulsion cycle, operational procedures, and payload on fuel usage are presented and utilized to arrive at a conceptual configuration which offers mission fuel savings as well as desirable operational characteristics in the terminal area. Technical and economic evaluation is provided in the form of a comparison of the resulting configuration with transports reflecting the current level of technology. The research and technology programs required to realize potential benefits are described.

Hanks, G. W.↗

Twinsat earth gravity field mapping

Results of a sensitivity study on the proposed Lo-Lo (Twinsat) satellite-to-satellite tracking mission are described. The relative range-rate signal due to a local gravitational anomaly is investigated as a function of height and satellite separation. It is shown that the signal strength is weak and that an optimal combination of signal strength and resolution is achieved when the satellites are separated by 3 deg along-track. The signal does not resolve point masses closer than 5 deg apart when the satellites are at 300 km altitude. The influence of other factors on the system is evaluated, including the low frequency gravitation field effect on the orbit and the dependence of the noise of the data type on (electronic) integration time.

Lowrey, B. E.↗

The effects of selected modern technological concepts on the performance and handling characteristics of LTA vehicles

The results of an airship design sensitivity study are presented. A wide variety of airship design concepts, including the classical and high aero-lift augmented-hybrids are examined with regard to specific technological improvements, and consequent gains in performance, stability and control and flying qualities. Variations in size, payload, power required and airspeed are quantitatively analyzed for airships representing aero-to-buoyant lift ratios of zero to 3.0 over a range of technology improvements implying reduced drag, reduced structural weight fractions and lighter, more efficient propulsion systems. Qualitatively, future airships are discussed in terms of stability, control and flying qualities requirements dictated by projected demands for vastly improved operational effectiveness and ease of handling. Such topics include stability augmentation systems, load-alleviation systems and total computer state-sensing and controls management systems. It was shown that, for the most part, highly refined conventional designs offer attractive gains in both performance and ease of handling. Hybrid airships represent a good potential for missions requiring the transport of heavy payloads at higher airspeeds over shorter ranges without the capability for sustained hover and vertical flight.

Mazza, C. J.↗