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Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗

Comparisons of Nodal diffusion and whole-core transport methods for multiple cycles of a small Light water reacto

As part of a cooperative research and development agreement between the US department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Holtec International subsidiary SMR LLC, core simulator models of the SMR-160, a light water-cooled and -moderated, natural circulation, small modular reactor, were developed and compared. The model results indicate pin-by-pin power histories, critical boron concentration, and other key performance indicators useful for developing multi-cycle core loading patterns. One model uses industry standard nodal methods with a simple thermal-hydraulics solution, and the other uses an advanced deterministic neutronics solver with a coupled subchannel calculation. The goals of the comparison are to provide the reactor designer with a detailed and coupled core physics reference solution, inform the reactor designer of nodal model best practices based on the code-to-code comparison, and set up a workflow for performing subsequent detailed core simulator calculations. The results of this work will be used in the development of coupled neutronic, thermal hydraulic, and fuel performance models for advanced analysis of the SMR-160. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

ASDFL: An adaptive super‐pixel discriminative feature‐selective learning for vehicle matching

Abstract There are a large number of cameras in modern transportation system that capture numerous vehicle images continuously. Therefore, automatic analysis of these vehicle images is helpful for traffic flow management, criminal investigations and vehicle inspections. Vehicle matching, which aims to determine whether two input images depict an identical vehicle, is one of the core tasks in vehicle analysis. Recent relevant studies have focused on local feature extraction instead of global extraction, since local details can provide crucial cues to distinguish between cars. However, these methods do not select local features; that is, they do not assign weights to local features. Therefore, in this research, we systematically study the vehicle matching task, and present a novel annotation‐free local‐based deep learning method called Adaptive super‐pixel discriminative feature‐selective learning (ASDFL) to address this issue. In ASDFL, vehicle images are segmented into clusters of super‐pixels of similar size by considering the location and colour similarities of pixels without using any component‐level annotation. These super‐pixels are deemed to be the virtual components of vehicles. Moreover, a convolutional neural network is used to extract the deep features of these virtual components. Thereafter, an instance‐specific mask generation module driven by the extracted global features is enhanced to produce a mask to select the most distinctive virtual components of each vehicle image pair in the feature space. Finally, the vehicle matching task is accomplished by classifying the selected virtual component features of each imaged vehicle pair. Extensive experiments on two popular vehicle identification benchmarks demonstrate that our method is 1.57% and 0.8% more accurate than the previous baselines in a vehicle matching task on the VeRi and VehicleID datasets, respectively, which demonstrates the effectiveness of our method.

Qin, Rong↗

2025 Workshop on Envisioning Frontiers in AI and Computing for Biological Research: Position Papers

This workshop aims to identify key research directions for transforming biology using artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML) and computational methods to facilitate the discovery of new behaviors, mechanisms, and designs of biological processes relevant to DOE missions, underpinning a broader U.S. bioeconomy. By developing novel AI/ML technologies to analyze and interpret complex biological data, researchers can organize and simulate biological processes at various scales as well as advance predictive understanding and manipulation of biological systems. This integration of computation, experimentation, and next-generation experimental technologies can lead to discoveries in new biological behaviors and mechanisms relevant to DOE missions. The focus is on how advanced computational and mathematical methods can impact this mission by exploring digital twins, foundation models, automated laboratory experiments, modeling of complex living systems, and data-driven approaches for the biodesign of plants and microbial systems. While data management is important, it is not the primary focus of this workshop, which will assess the current state, trends, and AI/ML challenges at the interface between biology and computational science to identify opportunities for high-impact research at their intersection. The goal is to define research needs and opportunities that align with biological sciences, computational sciences, and applied mathematics research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Meshfree Multiphysics Damage Modeling of Li-ion Battery Materials

Through repeated charging and discharging cycles, the electrodes of a Li-ion battery experience significant swelling and contraction due to the movement of lithium, also known as intercalation. This research focuses specifically on the chemo-mechanical cracking in the cathode. Because cathode particles are comprised of many randomly-oriented grains, which have highly anisotropic material properties, the expansion and contraction is very non-uniform. As a result, stress concentrations tend to form between grains, which necessitates the modeling of crack propagation largely along grain boundaries and material interfaces. Chemo-mechanical damage models are generally simulated by one of two methods: the cohesive zone model (CZM) and the continuous damage model (CDM). The CZM is more accurate at capturing the sharp discontinuities of a crack but is very computationally expensive and intractable for large-scale models as a result. Conversely, the CDM is easily computed but not well-suited to easily allow for discontinuous field variables, which are inherent across a crack. This study aims to improve the CDM's ability to capture discontinuous cracks. Current versions of the CDM use the finite element method (FEM), which is one of the most widely used approaches for spatial discretization. This research investigates the use of the Reproducing Kernel Particle Method (RKPM), a meshfree method, for spatial discretization and aims to achieve a coupled chemo-mechanical crack propagation model that enhances accuracy while maintaining high computational efficiency. This model features a fully coupled, iterative electrochemistry solution, which informs the meshfree damage model of impending crack formation. To gain a better understanding of how the meshfree model compares to the current FEM model in capturing cathode crack propagation, further investigation is needed.

damage modeling↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics Using the Adaptive Wavelet-Collocation Method

Advancements to the adaptive wavelet-collocation method over the last decade have opened up a number of new possible areas for active research. Volume penalization techniques allow complex immersed boundary conditions to be used with high efficiency for both internal and external flows. Anisotropic methods make it possible to use body-fitted meshes while still taking advantage of the dynamic adaptability properties wavelet-based methods provide. The parallelization of the approach has made it possible to perform large high-resolution simulations of detonation initiation and fluid instabilities to uncover new physical insights that would otherwise be difficult to discover. Other developments include space-time adaptive methods and nonreflecting boundary conditions. This article summarizes the work performed using the adaptive wavelet-collocation method developed by Vasilyev and coworkers over the past decade.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Advances in in situ/operando techniques for catalysis research: enhancing insights and discoveries

Abstract Catalysis research has witnessed remarkable progress with the advent of in situ and operando techniques. These methods enable the study of catalysts under actual operating conditions, providing unprecedented insights into catalytic mechanisms and dynamic catalyst behavior. This review discusses key in situ techniques and their applications in catalysis research. Advances in in situ electron microscopy allow direct visualization of catalysts at the atomic scale under reaction conditions. In situ spectroscopy techniques like X-ray absorption spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy can track chemical states and reveal transient intermediates. Synchrotron-based techniques offer enhanced capabilities for in situ studies. The integration of in situ methods with machine learning and computational modeling provides a powerful approach to accelerate catalyst optimization. However, challenges remain regarding radiation damage, instrumentation limitations, and data interpretation. Overall, continued development of multi-modal in situ techniques is pivotal for addressing emerging challenges and opportunities in catalysis research and technology.

Chen, Linfeng↗

Towards the next generation of Geospatial Artificial Intelligence

Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI), as the integration of geospatial studies and AI, has become one of the fastest-developing research directions in spatial data science and geography. This rapid change in the field calls for a deeper understanding of the recent developments and envision where the field is going in the near future. In this work, we provide a quantitative analysis of the GeoAI literature from the spatial, temporal, and semantic aspects. We briefly discuss the history of AI and GeoAI by highlighting some pioneering work. Then we discuss the current landscape of GeoAI by selecting five representative subdomains including remote sensing, urban computing, Earth system science, cartography, and geospatial semantics. Finally, we highlight several unique future research directions of GeoAI which are classified into two groups: GeoAI method development challenges and GeoAI Ethics challenges. Topics include heterogeneity-aware GeoAI, knowledge-guided GeoAI, spatial representation learning, geo-foundation models, fairness-aware GeoAI, privacy-aware GeoAI, as well as interpretable and explainable GeoAI. We hope our review of GeoAI’s past, present, and future is comprehensive and can enlighten the next generation of GeoAI research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

PCAfold 2.0—Novel tools and algorithms for low-dimensional manifold assessment and optimization

We describe an update to our open-source Python package, PCAfold, designed to help researchers generate, analyze and improve low-dimensional data manifolds. In the current version, PCAfold 2.0, we introduce novel tools and algorithms for assessing and optimizing low-dimensional manifolds. This includes a method that generates a “map” of local feature sizes that can help pinpoint researchers to problematic regions on a manifold. We introduce a novel cost function that characterizes the quality of a manifold topology with a single number. We develop two algorithms for feature selection based on principal component analysis (PCA) that use the cost function as an objective function to minimize. We introduce a quantity of interest (QoI)-aware dimensionality reduction strategy where data projections are computed using an artificial neural network and are directly optimized towards representing various projection-independent and projection-dependent QoIs. We also introduce an implementation of partition of unity networks (POUnets) for efficient reconstruction of QoIs from low-dimensional manifolds based on combining neural network classification with localized polynomial regression. Our software can be broadly applicable in all domains of science and engineering that aim to reduce data dimensionality, as well as in the fundamental research on representation learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Bayesian and HRA-Aided Method for the Novel Reliability Analysis of Software

Technological advancements and nuclear power plant modernization has inspired considerable research in the areas of safety and reliability, yet there remains a lack of consensus for the reliability assessment of digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems. Motivated by the lack of consensus for reliability analysis methods, this work employs a novel framework that incorporates Bayesian, human reliability, and common-cause failure (CCF) modeling techniques. The novel framework allows the use of state-of-the-art or classical modeling techniques when accounting for human and CCF effects on system reliability. The Bayesian and HRA-Aided Method for the Reliability Analysis of Software (BAHAMAS) is demonstrated by a case study for the quantification of software hazards found in a previous analysis of a digital reactor trip system. The results demonstrate the ability of BAHAMAS to account for human activities during the software development life cycle and their influence on software reliability. BAHAMAS is a flexible tool for extending the coverage of conventional probabilistic risk assessments to include modernized digital I&C systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Winners are not keepers: Characterizing household engagement, gains, and energy patterns in demand response using machine learning in the United States

Demand-response programs can help utilities manage rapidly evolving electric grids, but these programs are subject to the complexities of human behavior. This paper explores a novel method for uncovering heterogeneity in households. In this work, we use a machine-learning method known as a Conditional Inference Tree (c-tree) algorithm to categorize households based on their energy behavior characteristics collected via smart meters, and explore how this translates through into heterogeneity in their real-world response to a DR program. Using data from randomized controlled trial, we generate estimates of the changes in energy use caused by the program within each household group. Our results show that the c-tree approach differentiates households by their energy-use characteristics in a way that increases the spread in enrollment rates and critical peak reduction among household groups, compared with the spreads achieved via several conventional segmentation methods. Thus, the c-tree analysis enables the most tailored targeting of major potential energy savers and could provide the greatest increase in cost-effectiveness of household recruitment into DR programs. Our results also offer fresh insights into the relationships between household energy behavior characteristics – such as peak energy use and “structural winningness” (the ability to save money under a DR program without changing energy-use behaviors) – and household decisions about enrolling in DR programs and reducing energy use. Our research also demonstrates the potential of smart meter data, combined with machine learning and econometric methods, to provide significant value to utilities, program implementers, researchers, and other stakeholders.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Convective and turbulent motions in non-precipitating Cu. Part 1: Method of separation of convective and turbulent motions

Atmospheric motions in clouds and cloud surroundings have a wide range of scales, from several kilometers to centimeters. These motions have different impacts on cloud dynamics and microphysics. Larger-scale motions (hereafter referred to as convective motions) are responsible for mass transport over distances comparable with cloud scale, while motions of smaller scales (hereafter referred to as turbulent motions) are stochastic and responsible for mixing and cloud dilution. This distinction substantially simplifies the analysis of dynamic and microphysical processes in clouds. The present research is Part I of the study aimed at describing the method for separating the motion scale into a convective component and a turbulent component. An idealized flow is constructed, which is a sum of an initially prescribed field of the convective velocity with updrafts in the cloud core and downdrafts outside the core, and a stochastic turbulent velocity field obeying the turbulent properties, including the -5/3 law and the 2/3 structure function law. A wavelet method is developed allowing separation of the velocity field into the convective and turbulent components, with parameter values being in a good agreement with those prescribed initially. The efficiency of the method is demonstrated by an example of a vertical velocity field of a cumulus cloud simulated using the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) with bin microphysics and resolution of 10 m. It is shown that vertical velocity in clouds indeed can be represented as a sum of convective velocity (forming zone of cloud updrafts and subsiding shell) and a stochastic velocity obeying laws of homogeneous and isotropic turbulence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bifurcation of equilibrium positions for ellipsoidal particles in inertial shear flows between two walls

We conducted a systematic numerical investigation of spherical, prolate and oblate particles in an inertial shear flow between two parallel walls, using smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH). It was previously shown that above a critical Reynolds number, spherical particles experience a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation of the equilibrium position in shear flow between two parallel walls, namely that the central equilibrium position becomes unstable, leading to the emergence of two new off-centre stable positions (Foxet al.,J. Fluid Mech., vol. 915, 2021). This phenomenon was unexpected given the symmetry of the system. In addition to confirming this finding, we found, surprisingly, that ellipsoidal particles can also return to the centre position from the off-centre positions when the particle Reynolds number is further increased, while spherical particles become unstable under this increased Reynolds number. By utilizing both SPH and the finite element method for flow visualization, we explained the underlining mechanism of this reverse of bifurcation by altered streamwise vorticity and symmetry breaking of pressure. Furthermore, we expanded our investigation to include asymmetric particles, a novel aspect that had not been previously modelled, and we observed similar trends in particle dynamics for both symmetric and asymmetric ellipsoidal particles. While further validation through laboratory experiments is necessary, our research paves the road for development of new focusing and separation methods for shaped particles.

Mechanics↗

Methods for ultraviolet excitation microscopy of biological surfaces

Microscopy with Ultraviolet Surface Excitation (MUSE) for use in the classroom to enhance life sciences education and curricula, or for other applications, including without limtiation the operating room, other medical environments, research environments, and low resource environments. MUSE's suitability is based on multiple key factors including its simplicity of use, the incorporation of inexpensive hardware including LED illumination, and very basic tissue preparation. The ultraviolet excitation acts as passive optical sectioning confining the generated fluorescence signal to only a few micrometers below the tissue surface thus eliminating the out of focus signals. This facilitates image capture of tissue microstructure and organization from specimens at the intact or sliced surface arising from varying fluorophore concentration within the different cellular compartments. Although just the tissue auto fluorescence maybe used, image quality is enhanced with brief application of nontoxic fluorescent dyes to selectively highlight cellular compartments. Sample preparation is safe, efficient and familiar to students with basic chemistry or biology lab experience. Mixed-dye powders may be used to simplify translation of this method for educational, medical, research, low resource, and other settings.

Demos, Stavros G.↗

Harnessing Condorcet Methods to Improve Decision-making Based on Ranked Data

Decision-makers must often choose between multiple alternatives based on their relative merits across a variety of criteria. These multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems must be approached in an objective, measurable, and transparent fashion to obtain well-supported outcomes. The challenge of using sets of ranked data to identify the optimal choice is not unlike the challenge of using ranked ballots to identify the winner of an election in a preference voting system. As such, the methods of rank aggregation used in elections can be applied to help resolve MCDM problems. Previous research into the design of elections and ballots has yielded many algorithms with well-understood properties. A subset of these, called Condorcet methods, reliably identify the “Condorcet winner,” if it exists, giving the result that would defeat any other in a pairwise comparison. That, in addition to several other desirable qualities, makes Condorcet methods like the Schulze method, Ranked Pairs, and Copeland’s method, effective and scalable means for tackling MCDM problems. These rank aggregation methods have been implemented in JavaScript functions for incorporation into a web-based MCDM decision tool. These algorithms can be applied in a wide variety of contexts (for example, determining the “best” environmental remediation method or selecting a subcontractor) to facilitate effective decision-making. The performance of the JavaScript Condorcet prototype tool was compared across the implemented algorithms and with both a non-Condorcet rank aggregation method as well as an implementation of the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART) algorithm.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Residential Building Energy Efficiency Field Studies: Low-Rise Multifamily

In recent years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has conducted a series of research studies to validate energy efficient building technologies in the field. Much of the work has focused on single-family construction, and some has also addressed commercial energy codes. The work detailed in this DOE-funded study (EE0007616) focuses on low-rise multifamily buildings (three stories or fewer above grade) in various regions of the United States, and reports on how state-level building codes are being implemented, both in terms of observed characteristics and also in terms of estimated energy impacts. Nearly 100 buildings across four states—Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington—were sampled, which represent a range of climate types from mild temperature to very cold continental. Both common entry and outdoor entry buildings were included, and a parallel research project evaluated envelope air tightness and current still-evolving air tightness testing methods. Finally, a set of structured interviews of building designers and other relevant professionals was carried to out to gain more insight into this market. To the greatest extent possible, the methodology developed under the project for low-rise multifamily buildings mirrored the approach established by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for single-family residential buildings (https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/downloads/residential-building-energy-code-field-study). This included the general approach to sampling, recruitment, and data collection, as well as data analysis and presentation. The range of permitting dates for the sites encompassed two energy code cycles in most regions. All states in the study had adopted a variation of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for the structure of their state code. The low-rise multifamily occupancy presents a hybrid building type: most of the building’s conditioned floor area was covered by the residential chapter of the code while portions of the building (such as corridors and common spaces) fell under the commercial code chapter. The key items assessed in this work were: Building Shell—exterior wall insulation, ceiling insulation, foundation insulation, windows. Common Areas—HVAC and lighting. Living Units—lighting, ventilation. A few items were not assessed in detail, given their relative paucity in this occupancy type; these included duct leakage, pipe insulation, and hot water circulation controls. Building characteristics were collected via a combination of architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing plan reviews and field inspections, and entered into a spreadsheet-based tool that was later queried to build a database. Data went through quality control both upon arrival and via a later semi-automated review and assurance process. Most of the data are presented graphically so that the reader can quickly assess compliance with the applicable energy codes (both by state and by code year). As a final step, EnergyPlus™ simulations were created for all buildings in the study to estimate both the as-found energy use intensity (EUI) and the energy and CO 2 that could be saved if features that were found to not meet code minimums were brought up to code. The savings estimates were tabulated for each of the four states in the study. The research team found that the single-family approach was largely applicable to low-rise multifamily buildings. This applies to both the data collection and the prototype EUI analysis. Most of the occupied space is living units and falls under residential energy codes, and many characteristics use similar envelope construction and relatively straightforward mechanical systems and lighting. One of the most challenging aspects of this work was to build an effective spreadsheet-based data collection instrument that could allow efficient collection of both building plan and field data. The research team is of the view that other methods could be equally effective if the work is done carefully with diligent quality control. The primary findings for the work center around the thermal envelope and mechanical systems and lighting at the sites: For thermal envelope components, the majority of buildings met or were better than the prescriptive code.This suggests that building designers and builders are aware of code requirements. In some cases, surveyed buildings were designed to qualify for energy efficiency certification programs. These buildings made up at least 20% of sampled buildings in each state. Almost all buildings met mechanical system efficiency requirements (for both living units and common areas). In some cases, sites employed systems that were considerably more efficient than required by the applicable energy code. Dwelling units had a majority of high-efficacy lighting, often in excess of the state’s residential code requirements. While high-efficacy fixtures were also typical in common areas (corridors and stairwells), lighting power densities (LPDs) in these areas were sometimes higher than levels dictated by the applicable part of the state commercial energy code. The simulation models run on a series of low-rise multifamily prototypes, informed by a composite of the field data collected, calculated annual EUIs of between 20 and 50 kBtu/ft2-yr, with the range representing the effects of both building characteristics and building location (climate zone). A detailed process (based on simulations of prototype buildings) was used to estimate the amount of avoided energy use that would occur if 100% adherence to energy codes were attained. The results indicated modest savings are attainable for items such as window thermal performance and common area lighting. The result is overall only a modest potential for additional energy savings, averaging about 10% of EUI.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗

High dimensional binary classification under label shift: phase transition and regularization

Label Shift has been widely believed to be harmful to the generalization performance of machine learning models. Researchers have proposed many approaches to mitigate the impact of the label shift, e.g., balancing the training data. However, these methods often consider the underparametrized regime, where the sample size is much larger than the data dimension. The research under the overparametrized regime is very limited. Here, to bridge this gap, we propose a new asymptotic analysis of the Fisher Linear Discriminant classifier for binary classification with label shift. Specifically, we prove that there exists a phase transition phenomenon: Under certain overparametrized regime, the classifier trained using imbalanced data outperforms the counterpart with reduced balanced data. Moreover, we investigate the impact of regularization to the label shift: The aforementioned phase transition vanishes as the regularization becomes strong.

binary classification↗