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The NASA Continuous Risk Management Process

As an intern this summer in the GRC Risk Management Office, I have become familiar with the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process. In this process, risk is considered in terms of the probability that an undesired event will occur and the impact of the event, should it occur (ref., NASA-NPG: 7120.5). Risk management belongs in every part of every project and should be ongoing from start to finish. Another key point is that a risk is not a problem until it has happened. With that in mind, there is a six step cycle for continuous risk management that prevents risks from becoming problems. The steps are: identify, analyze, plan, track, control, and communicate & document. Incorporated in the first step are several methods to identify risks such as brainstorming and using lessons learned. Once a risk is identified, a risk statement is made on a risk information sheet consisting of a single condition and one or more consequences. There can also be a context section where the risk is explained in more detail. Additionally there are three main goals of analyzing a risk, which are evaluate, classify, and prioritize. Here is where a value is given to the attributes of a risk &e., probability, impact, and timeframe) based on a multi-level classification system (e.g., low, medium, high). It is important to keep in mind that the definitions of these levels are probably different for each project. Furthermore the risks can be combined into groups. Then, the risks are prioritized to see what risk is necessary to mitigate first. After the risks are analyzed, a plan is made to mitigate as many risks as feasible. Each risk should be assigned to someone in the project with knowledge in the area of the risk. Then the possible approaches to choose from are: research, accept, watch, or mitigate. Next, all risks, mitigated or not, are tracked either individually or in groups. As the plan is executed, risks are re-evaluated, and the attribute values are adjusted as necessary. Metrics are established and monitored as tools for risk tracking. Also a trigger or threshold should be set on the metric data that indicates when an action is needed. Results of this tracking are usually evaluated and reported in a relevant format at weekly or monthly meetings. Choosing controls is the subsequent step, which involves the effects of the tracking. The three basic controls are: close, continue tracking, and re- plan. Finally communicate & document is the last step, but occurs throughout the process. It is vital that main risks, plans, changes, and progress are known by everyone in the project. A good way to keep everyone updated and inform other projects of common issues is by thoroughly documenting project risks. NASA sees value in risk management and believes that projects have greater probability or success by using the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process.

Pokorny, Frank M.↗

Models Extracted from Text for System-Software Safety Analyses

This presentation describes extraction and integration of requirements information and safety information in visualizations to support early review of completeness, correctness, and consistency of lengthy and diverse system safety analyses. Software tools have been developed and extended to perform the following tasks: 1) extract model parts and safety information from text in interface requirements documents, failure modes and effects analyses and hazard reports; 2) map and integrate the information to develop system architecture models and visualizations for safety analysts; and 3) provide model output to support virtual system integration testing. This presentation illustrates the methods and products with a rocket motor initiation case.

Malin, Jane T.↗

Feasibility of Earthbound Motion in Lunar Gravity

BACKGROUND: Marginal stability of astronaut movement while performing lunar surface tasks has been well documented, and is clearly demonstrated in videos of falls, and near falls, during Apollo Lunar Extravehicular Activities. Referencing mission reports from Apollo 15 and 16 [1, 2], suspected causes for falls include: surface conditions, visibility, and gravitational effects (hypogravity). In this preliminary test, we employ the open-source biomechanical tool OpenSim [3, 4] to analyze the impact of lunar gravity (Lg) on two object-pickup motions performed by a single shirt-sleeved subject. Specifically, we attempt to answer the following questions based on an estimation of the Center of Mass Projection (CoMP) and ground reaction force Center of Pressure (COP) as it relates to the astronaut Base of Support (BOS) for 1g and Lg conditions: 1. Is the task motion, as performed in 1g, dynamically feasible in 1g and Lg? 2. Can we make the motion dynamically feasible in Lg by slowing it down? 3. Is the Lg COP equal to the 1g COP at a theoretically predicted reduction in motion speed? METHODS AND RESULTS: To answer the first question, the gravitational acceleration in the OpenSim model is modified from a nominal 9.81 m/s2 to 1.64 m/s2, and the 1g joint trajectory is input to an OpenSim based method [5] for estimating ground reaction forces and moments. From this method, the position of the CoMP and COP can be estimated and checked to see if they remain within a simulated BOS formed from the footprint of the OpenSim model to determine whether the motion is dynamically feasible. As expected, both of the motions were estimated to be feasible in a 1g environment, however, both motions had periods of infeasibility in Lg. It is well known that crew members make adjustments to motion trajectories in altered gravity fields to maintain balance. As a first step, we considered the simple adjustment of slowing the motion in Lg by a constant factor. This was accomplished by scaling the time stamps in the motion trajectory file by that factor. For the two motions considered, it was found that scale factors of 1.3 and 1.4 kept the COP just within the subject BOS. The CoMP is unchanged by the gravity field. Simple analysis of an inverted pendulum in the Lg environment, which generalizes to a general multibody system, leads to a theoretical prediction that a reduction in speed factor of √1g/Lg, or 2.445, will make the COP trajectory in Lg equivalent to that in 1g. When the above procedure was performed with a factor of 2.445, the estimated COP in Lg, was observed to be very close to that in 1g. In summary, we have developed a method for estimating the CoMP and COP in Lg, for subject motion collected in 1g. We believe this method can prove to be a valuable check and balance for simulated Lg training and testing by exposing potential simulator-induced artifacts that make the simulated task motion seem possible, when in fact, it would violate the above criteria. We also note that a reduction in task speed should tend the task motion towards stability, with a theoretical slowdown factor of √1g/Lg making the motion stability equal to that in 1g according to the CoMP and COP criteria.

R K Huffman↗

Are Soybean Models Ready for Climate Change Food Impact Assessments?

An accurate estimation of crop yield under climate change scenarios is essential to quantify our ability to feed a growing population and develop agronomic adaptations to meet future food demand. A coordinated evaluation of yield simulations from process-based eco-physiological models for climate change impact assessment is still missing for soybean, the most widely grown grain legume and the main source of protein in our food chain. In this first soybean multi-model study, we used ten prominent models capable of simulating soybean yield under varying temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration [CO 2 ] to quantify the uncertainty in soybean yield simulations in response to these factors. Models were first parametrized with high quality measured data from five contrasting environments. We found considerable variability among models in simulated yield responses to increasing temperature and [CO 2 ]. For example, under a + 3 °C temperature rise in our coolest location in Argentina, some models simulated that yield would reduce as much as 24%, while others simulated yield increases up to 29%. In our warmest location in Brazil, the models simulated a yield reduction ranging from a 38% decrease under + 3 °C temperature rise to no effect on yield. Similarly, when increasing [CO 2 ] from 360 to 540 ppm, the models simulated a yield increase that ranged from 6% to 31%. Model calibration did not reduce variability across models but had an unexpected effect on modifying yield responses to temperature for some of the models. The high uncertainty in model responses indicates the limited applicability of individual models for climate change food projections. However, the ensemble mean of simulations across models was an effective tool to reduce the high uncertainty in soybean yield simulations associated with individual models and their parametrization. Ensemble, ensemble mean yield responses to temperature and [CO 2 ] were similar to those reported from the literature. Our study is the first demonstration of the benefits achieved from using an ensemble of grain legume models for climate change food projections, and highlights that further soybean model development with experiments under elevated [CO 2 ] and temperature is needed to reduce the uncertainty from the individual models.

Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvemen↗

Global Failure Modes in Composite Structures for High Altitudes

This report summarizes the accomplishments under the referenced grant. The work described was started under the guidance and supervision of the late Dr. James Stames as the technical contact. It was aimed at investigating the development of analysis tools to deal with the problem of rupture in reinforced structural skin of future composites-based aircraft. It was of particular interest to assess methods by which failure features reminiscent of cracks in metallic structures would develop and propagate in fiber reinforced structures in interaction with the reinforcing frame. To eventually achieve that goal it was necessary to first understand the stress or strain distribution at the front of such features so that interactions between such features and reinforcing agents could be assessed computationally. Thus the major emphasis here was on the assessment of damage front and methods on how to assess or characterize it. During the conduct of this research program Dr. Stames changed to a different NASA- internal assignment, which divorced him of the direct supervision of this grant. A student who was approximately % into the completion of his Ph.D. research needed to finish this work, and NASA funds were made available under Dr. Damodar Ambur, the successor Branch Manager for Dr. James Starnes, for the completion of this work. The current grant was the thus a new and fmal support increment for completion of the started research. Final reports for previous funding have been completed and submitted. Because of the interconnection of this last phase of the investigation with previous work it is deemed useful to make the Ph.D. thesis by Luis Gonzales the body of this report.

Knauss, W. G.↗

Development and Application of Computational/In Vitro Toxicological Methods for Chemical Hazard Risk Reduction of New Materials for Advanced Weapon Systems

The development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) is essential for reducing the chemical hazards of new weapon systems. The current collaboration between HEST (toxicology research and testing), MLPJ (computational chemistry) and PRS (computational chemistry, new propellant synthesis) is focusing R&D efforts on basic research goals that will rapidly transition to useful products for propellant development. Computational methods are being investigated that will assist in forecasting cellular toxicological end-points. Models developed from these chemical structure-toxicity relationships are useful for the prediction of the toxicological endpoints of new related compounds. Research is focusing on the evaluation tools to be used for the discovery of such relationships and the development of models of the mechanisms of action. Combinations of computational chemistry techniques, in vitro toxicity methods, and statistical correlations, will be employed to develop and explore potential predictive relationships; results for series of molecular systems that demonstrate the viability of this approach are reported. A number of hydrazine salts have been synthesized for evaluation. Computational chemistry methods are being used to elucidate the mechanism of action of these salts. Toxicity endpoints such as viability (LDH) and changes in enzyme activity (glutahoione peroxidase and catalase) are being experimentally measured as indicators of cellular damage. Extrapolation from computational/in vitro studies to human toxicity, is the ultimate goal. The product of this program will be a predictive tool to assist in the development of new, less toxic propellants.

Frazier, John M.↗

Investigation of Spiral Bevel Gear Condition Indicator Validation Via AC-29-2C Using Damage Progression Tests

This report documents the results of spiral bevel gear rig tests performed under a NASA Space Act Agreement with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to support validation and demonstration of rotorcraft Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) for maintenance credits via FAA Advisory Circular (AC) 29-2C, Section MG-15, Airworthiness Approval of Rotorcraft (HUMS) (Ref. 1). The overarching goal of this work was to determine a method to validate condition indicators in the lab that better represent their response to faults in the field. Using existing in-service helicopter HUMS flight data from faulted spiral bevel gears as a "Case Study," to better understand the differences between both systems, and the availability of the NASA Glenn Spiral Bevel Gear Fatigue Rig, a plan was put in place to design, fabricate and test comparable gear sets with comparable failure modes within the constraints of the test rig. The research objectives of the rig tests were to evaluate the capability of detecting gear surface pitting fatigue and other generated failure modes on spiral bevel gear teeth using gear condition indicators currently used in fielded HUMS. Nineteen final design gear sets were tested. Tables were generated for each test, summarizing the failure modes observed on the gear teeth for each test during each inspection interval and color coded based on damage mode per inspection photos. Gear condition indicators (CI) Figure of Merit 4 (FM4), Root Mean Square (RMS), +/- 1 Sideband Index (SI1) and +/- 3 Sideband Index (SI3) were plotted along with rig operational parameters. Statistical tables of the means and standard deviations were calculated within inspection intervals for each CI. As testing progressed, it became clear that certain condition indicators were more sensitive to a specific component and failure mode. These tests were clustered together for further analysis. Maintenance actions during testing were also documented. Correlation coefficients were calculated between each CI, component, damage state and torque. Results found test rig and gear design, type of fault and data acquisition can affect CI performance. Results found FM4, SI1 and SI3 can be used to detect macro pitting on two more gear or pinion teeth as long as it is detected prior to progressing to other components or transitioning to another failure mode. The sensitivity of RMS to system and operational conditions limit its reliability for systems that are not maintained at steady state. Failure modes that occurred due to scuffing or fretting were challenging to detect with current gear diagnostic tools, since the damage is distributed across all the gear and pinion teeth, smearing the impacting signatures typically used to differentiate between a healthy and damaged tooth contact. This is one of three final reports published on the results of this project. In the second report, damage modes experienced in the field will be mapped to the failure modes created in the test rig. The helicopter CI data will then be re-processed with the same analysis techniques applied to spiral bevel rig test data. In the third report, results from the rig and helicopter data analysis will be correlated. Observations, findings and lessons learned using sub-scale rig failure progression tests to validate helicopter gear condition indicators will be presented.

gears↗

Using CASE to Exploit Process Modeling in Technology Transfer

A successful business will be one that has processes in place to run that business. Creating processes, reengineering processes, and continually improving processes can be accomplished through extensive modeling. Casewise(R) Corporate Modeler(TM) CASE is a computer aided software engineering tool that will enable the Technology Transfer Department (TT) at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to capture these abilities. After successful implementation of CASE, it could then go on to be applied in other departments at MSFC and other centers at NASA. The success of a business process is dependent upon the players working as a team and continuously improving the process. A good process fosters customer satisfaction as well as internal satisfaction in the organizational infrastructure. CASE provides a method for business process success through functions consisting of systems and processes business models; specialized diagrams; matrix management; simulation; report generation and publishing; and, linking, importing, and exporting documents and files. The software has an underlying repository or database to support these functions. The Casewise. manual informs us that dynamics modeling is a technique used in business design and analysis. Feedback is used as a tool for the end users and generates different ways of dealing with the process. Feedback on this project resulted from collection of issues through a systems analyst interface approach of interviews with process coordinators and Technical Points of Contact (TPOCs).

Renz-Olar, Cheryl↗

Knowledge Preservation for Design of Rocket Systems

An engineer at NASA Lewis RC presented a challenge to us at Southern University. Our response to that challenge, stated circa 1993, has evolved into the Knowledge Preservation Project which is here reported. The stated problem was to capture some of the knowledge of retiring NASA engineers and make it useful to younger engineers via computers. We evolved that initial challenge to this - design a system of tools such that, with this system, people might efficiently capture and make available via commonplace computers, deep knowledge of retiring NASA engineers. In the process of proving some of the concepts of this system, we would (and did) capture knowledge from some specific engineers and, so, meet the original challenge along the way to meeting the new. Some of the specific knowledge acquired, particularly that on the RL- 10 engine, was directly relevant to design of rocket engines. We considered and rejected some of the techniques popular in the days we began - specifically "expert systems" and "oral histories". We judged that these old methods had too high a cost per sentence preserved. That cost could be measured in hours of labor of a "knowledge professional". We did spend, particularly in the grant preceding this one, some time creating a couple of "concept maps", one of the latest ideas of the day, but judged this also to be costly in time of a specially trained knowledge-professional. We reasoned that the cost in specialized labor could be lowered if less time were spent being selective about sentences from the engineers and in crafting replacements for those sentences. The trade-off would seem to be that our set of sentences would be less dense in information, but we found a computer-based way around this seeming defect. Our plan, details of which we have been carrying out, was to find methods of extracting information from experts which would be capable of gaining cooperation, and interest, of senior engineers and using their time in a way they would find worthy (and, so, they would give more of their time and recruit time of other engineers as well). We studied these four ways of creating text: 1) the old way, via interviews and discussions - one of our team working with one expert, 2) a group-discussion led by one of the experts themselves and on a topic which inspires interaction of the experts, 3) a spoken dissertation by one expert practiced in giving talks, 4) expropriating, and modifying for our system, some existing reports (such as "oral histories" from the Smithsonian Institution).

Moreman, Douglas↗

Investigations of laser pumped gas cell atomic frequency standard

The performance characteristics of a rubidium gas cell atomic frequency standard might be improved by replacing the standard rubidium discharge lamp with a single mode laser diode. Aspects of the laser pumped gas cell atomic clock studied include effects due to laser intensity, laser detuning, and the choice of the particular atomic absorption line. Results indicate that the performance of the gas cell clock may be improved by judicious choice of the operating parameters of the laser diode. The laser diode also proved to be a valuable tool in investigating the operation of the conventional gas cell clock. Results concerning linewidths, the light shift effect and the effect of isotopic spin exchange in the conventional gas cell clock are reported.

Volk, C. H.↗

Advanced experimental techniques for transonic wind tunnels - Final lecture

A philosophy of experimental techniques is presented, suggesting that in order to be successful, one should like what one does, have the right tools, stick to the job, avoid diversions, work hard, interact with people, be informed, keep it simple, be self sufficient, and strive for perfection. Sources of information, such as bibliographies, newsletters, technical reports, and technical contacts and meetings are recommended. It is pointed out that adaptive-wall test sections eliminate or reduce wall interference effects, and magnetic suspension and balance systems eliminate support-interference effects, while the problem of flow quality remains with all wind tunnels. It is predicted that in the future it will be possible to obtain wind tunnel results at the proper Reynolds number, and the effects of flow unsteadiness, wall interference, and support interference will be eliminated or greatly reduced.

Kilgore, Robert A.↗

Recommendations for an Executive Information System (EIS) for the NASA Accounting and Financial Information System (NAFIS)

The objectives were to: (1) survey state-of-the-art computing architectures, tools, and technologies for implementing an Executive Information System (EIS); (2) review MSFC capabilities and efforts in developing an EIS for Shuttle Projects Office and the Payloads Project Office; (3) review management reporting requirements for the NASA Accounting and Financial Information System (NAFIS) Project in the areas of cost, schedule, and technical performance, and insure that the EIS fully supports these requirements; and (4) develop and implement a pilot concept for a NAFIS EIS. A summary of the findings of this work is presented.

Goss, Ernest Preston↗

Third International Symposium on Space Mission Operations and Ground Data Systems, part 2

Under the theme of 'Opportunities in Ground Data Systems for High Efficiency Operations of Space Missions,' the SpaceOps '94 symposium included presentations of more than 150 technical papers spanning five topic areas: Mission Management, Operations, Data Management, System Development, and Systems Engineering. The symposium papers focus on improvements in the efficiency, effectiveness, and quality of data acquisition, ground systems, and mission operations. New technology, methods, and human systems are discussed. Accomplishments are also reported in the application of information systems to improve data retrieval, reporting, and archiving; the management of human factors; the use of telescience and teleoperations; and the design and implementation of logistics support for mission operations. This volume covers expert systems, systems development tools and approaches, and systems engineering issues.

Rash, James L.↗

New Approaches to HSCT Multidisciplinary Design and Optimization

New approaches to MDO have been developed and demonstrated during this project on a particularly challenging aeronautics problem- HSCT Aeroelastic Wing Design. To tackle this problem required the integration of resources and collaboration from three Georgia Tech laboratories: ASDL, SDL, and PPRL, along with close coordination and participation from industry. Its success can also be contributed to the close interaction and involvement of fellows from the NASA Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization (MAO) program, which was going on in parallel, and provided additional resources to work the very complex, multidisciplinary problem, along with the methods being developed. The development of the Integrated Design Engineering Simulator (IDES) and its initial demonstration is a necessary first step in transitioning the methods and tools developed to larger industrial sized problems of interest. It also provides a framework for the implementation and demonstration of the methodology. Attachment: Appendix A - List of publications. Appendix B - Year 1 report. Appendix C - Year 2 report. Appendix D - Year 3 report. Appendix E - accompanying CDROM.

Schrage, Daniel P.↗

The Human Space Life Sciences Critical Path Roadmap Project: A Strategy for Human Space Flight through Exploration-Class Missions

The product of the critical path roadmap project is an integrated strategy for mitigating the risks associated with human exploration class missions. It is an evolving process that will assure the ability to communicate the integrated critical path roadmap. Unlike previous reports, this one will not sit on a shelf - it has the full support of the JSC Space and Life Sciences Directorate (SA) and is already being used as a decision making tool (e.g., budget and investigation planning for Shuttle and Space Station mission). Utility of this product depends on many efforts, namely: providing the required information (completed risk data sheets, critical question information, technology data). It is essential to communicate the results of the critical path roadmap to the scientific community - this meeting is a good opportunity to do so. The web site envisioned for the critical path roadmap will provide the capability to communicate to a broader community and to track and update the system routinely.

Sawin, Charles F.↗

Characterization of Rhenium Oxides Using ESCA

High melting point and inherent ductility (toughness) over a wide range of temperature has made Rhenium an engineering material of choice for several thrust chambers in propulsion systems. Although the material remains tough at high temperatures, it still can readily transform to several oxides. As many as eight different oxides have been reported in literature. When characterized using ESCA (Electron Spectroscopy for Chemical Analyses) these oxides show large shifts in the Re 4f line positions. While this unique property could be used as a tool for oxide characterization, literature indicates that only a few of these oxides have been characterized. Current work focuses on characterizing oxides of Rhenium using ESCA. Spectral line Re 4f have been measured for various oxides and the results have been compared with the Re 4f line positions of real-time oxidation products from space hardware.

Panda, Binayak↗

Research in Computational Astrobiology

We report on several projects in the field of computational astrobiology, which is devoted to advancing our understanding of the origin, evolution and distribution of life in the Universe using theoretical and computational tools. Research projects included modifying existing computer simulation codes to use efficient, multiple time step algorithms, statistical methods for analysis of astrophysical data via optimal partitioning methods, electronic structure calculations on water-nuclei acid complexes, incorporation of structural information into genomic sequence analysis methods and calculations of shock-induced formation of polycylic aromatic hydrocarbon compounds.

Chaban, Galina↗

Restoration of gravitropic sensitivity in starch-deficient mutants of Arabidopsis by hypergravity

Despite the extensive study of plant gravitropism, there have been few experiments which have utilized hypergravity as a tool to investigate gravisensitivity in flowering plants. Previous studies have shown that starch-deficient mutants of Arabidopsis are less sensitive to gravity compared to the wild-type (WT). In this report, the question addressed was whether hypergravity could restore the sensitivity of starch-deficient mutants of Arabidopsis. The strains examined include a WT, a starchless mutant and a reduced-starch mutant. Vertical orientation studies with dark-grown seedlings indicate that increased centrifugal acceleration improves orientation relative to the acceleration vector for all strains, even the WT. For starchless roots, growth of seedlings under constant 5 g acceleration was required to restore orientation to the level of the WT at 1 g. In contrast, approximately 10 g was required to restore the orientation of the starchless mutant hypocotyls to a WT level at 1 g. Examination of plastid position in root cap columella cells of the starchless mutant revealed that the restoration of gravitropic sensitivity was correlated with the sedimentation of plastids toward the distal cell wall. Even in WT plants, hypergravity caused greater sedimentation of plastids and improved gravitropic capability. Collectively, these experiments support the hypothesis of a statolith-based system of gravity perception in plants. As far as is known, this is the first report to use hypergravity to study the mechanisms of gravitropism in Arabidopsis.

Non-NASA Center↗