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The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Development, Test, and Validation

Providing reliable probabilistic solar radiation information is needed to improve management of the uncertainty and variability of solar generation. Thus, guidance on how to develop skillful and accurate ensemble forecasts is essential and it will ultimately contribute to integration of high amounts of solar energy on the grid. A team from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research had been collaborating to develop the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS) in the past three years to produce probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts and better predict solar energy by quantifying forecast uncertainty. The WRF-Solar EPS basically generates ensemble members for solar irradiance based on stochastic perturbations to provide intraday and day-ahead probabilistic forecasts. This study will present main research steps in developing the WRF-Solar EPS including: (a) tangent linear analysis for identifying key input variables of six WRF-Solar modules significantly related to predicting of cloud and solar irradiance, (b) combining stochastic perturbation technique with the WRF-Solar model, and (c) ensemble calibration method to decrease error and uncertainty of ensemble-based solar forecasts. The capability of WRF-Solar EPS is now updated to the most recent version of standard WRF model. This presentation will summarize comprehensive results from the evaluation of forecasts against the National Solar Radiation Data Base as well as ground-measured observations. Moreover, we will introduce the user's guide for WRF-Solar EPS (e.g., parameters to configure stochastic perturbations) and future extension of this research.

day-ahead forecast↗

Hot Springs and Geysers: Exploring Historical and Modern Impacts of Geothermal Energy Production on Associated Natural Surface Systems and Standardizing Management Practices

Surface thermal features, most notably hot springs and geysers are increasingly being recognized for their importance to ecosystems, indigenous cultures, and in some cases agriculture, recreation, and tourism. Geothermal project development poses a potential risk to these natural features but current regulatory requirements for assessing and managing these risks during exploration, permitting and monitoring are somewhat inconsistent and unpredictable across different geothermal fields. This has resulted in uncertainty and increases in exploration risk for geothermal energy developers that have led to costly project delays, cancellations, or hesitation to commit. Varying regulatory requirements may also influence public perception, fostering confusion, distrust and ultimately opposition to geothermal projects, further contributing to project delays or cancellations. At a time when there is an increasing urgency for reliable baseload clean energy, geothermal is a net-zero, renewable solution that additionally provides access to more equitable and environmentally just clean power. Continued integration of geothermal energy into the national energy roadmap can be facilitated through consistent and predictable permitting, providing regulators the framework they need, developers a clear path forward, and transparency that the public deserves. This project, currently in its beginning phases, seeks to address this important issue by providing a technical basis from which to build a preliminary protocol for assessing and managing potential impacts from new or existing geothermal energy projects to surface thermal features and their associated ecosystems. Development of this preliminary protocol will be informed by (1) a literature review of well-documented case studies in the western U.S. and New Zealand to understand the range of conditions that exemplify geothermal-surface thermal systems; (2) development of generic illustrative conceptual-numerical models to quantify, understand, and predict the first-order controls (e.g., pressure and permeability) on surface flows; and (3) additional independent and scientifically rigorous evaluations of geothermal-surface thermal system case studies from the Basin and Range Province that incorporate publicly available data as well as data provided by industry through data-sharing agreements. Learning from the successes of the process used to develop the Induced Seismicity Management Protocol (ISMP), we ultimately aim to use these initial efforts as a springboard for establishing a surface thermal feature management working group that will work collaboratively to finalize the protocol as well as co-create recommended best practices for implementation. We envision that the working group will primarily be composed of representatives from regulatory entities, government agencies, Tribes, academia, national laboratories, and industry, and will include early and regular engagement with community organizations and environmental groups. This will help ensure broad acceptance and implementation of the protocol, which will facilitate a more consistent, predictable, and standardized regulatory process, and help to ensure that geothermal energy continues to provide a reliable source of clean energy, and a pathway to achieving greater energy equity in the U.S.

Best Practices↗

Modeling and Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop Validation of Synchronous Wind: An Inverterless Grid-Forming Wind Power Plant: Preprint

Grid-forming (GFM) control of Type-3 and Type-4 wind turbine generators has attracted substantial attention in power systems research; however, the limited over-current capability of power electronics converters continues to deteriorate the grid strength of the evolving power systems. Synchronous wind, also known as Type-5 wind turbine generator (WTG), offers a unique GFM solution to address grid integration and grid strength issues by keeping the grid largely synchronous at very high penetration levels of renewable generation. A Type-5 WTG interfaces to the electric grid via a synchronous generator (SG) driven by a variable-speed hydraulic torque converter; hence, the wind rotor operates in variable-speed mode for maximum power generation and the generator shaft remains synchronous to the grid. This paper developed and tested a high-fidelity model of Type-5 WTG under power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) testing environment. The PHIL demonstration showed that a Type-5 WTGs inherently behaves as a GFM unit and can obtain similar performance in terms of power responses, wind rotor dynamics, and efficiency compared to Type-3 WTG in high wind conditions. The developed model also provides further insight on how Type-5 WTGs can benefit the smooth transition to power systems with high integration level of inverter-based resources.

grid strength↗

Prototype Integrated Hydrogen Fuel Cell Powered Data Center (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report)

Data centers are the backbone of the modern economy-from the server rooms that power small- to medium-sized organizations, to the enterprise-class data centers that support American corporations, and the server farms that run cloud computing services. Rather than a traditional grid-centric data center approach, work under the CRADA will be directed towards implementing a proof-of-concept "hydrogen-based" data center utilizing hydrogen fuel cells, electrolyzers, and solar photovoltaics as key building blocks. This integrated proof-of-concept builds on preliminary work done by HPE and its partners Mercedes-Benz Research & Development North America, Inc. (MBRDNA) and Power Innovations, to dramatically simplify the electrical infrastructure in the data center, leverage the latest automotive-scale hydrogen fuel cell technologies, and tightly couple renewably generated DC power directly to the Information Technology (IT). While some limited aspects of this concept have been demonstrated previously the entire integrated proof of concept proposed here has not yet been realized.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Development of a Modular, Crushed-Rock Thermal Energy Storage Pilot Design

The goal of this project, primarily funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, is to design a next-step pilot to advance near-term energy storage integrated with a fossil plant to provide a facility capable of being viable and effective in a market with growing penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE). Thermal energy storage (TES) represents an ideal technology for this purpose. The current effort will complete a feasibility study to prepare for the Phase II pre-front end engineering design (pre-FEED) for implementing a crushed-rock TES system integrated with a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plant. The crushed rock storage technology, which is being developed by Brenmiller Energy, is a modular TES system termed bGen™, which can accommodate both thermal and electrical inputs and output steam, hot water, or hot air. For this application, the estimated efficiency is 80% thermal to thermal. The TES technology is being designed to operate on a slipstream from NYPA’s Eugene W. Zeltmann Power Project (Zeltmann) natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plant. The projected size of the system will be up to 4 MWe with at least 4 hours of storage duration, or 16 MWh-e total. Final sizing is being determined during the ongoing feasibility study. The next-step pilot being designed as part of the current project will represent a 5-fold increase in scale for this TES technology, and will be used to validate the technology’s ability to provide effective and economical energy storage. This pilot would represent the next-to-last demonstration scale before the technology could be commercial ready at GWh-e scales in the 2030 timeframe. This project is expected to design the critical next-step pilot, which will be undertaken in real-world operating conditions to better determine the crushed rock TES technology’s ability to be integrated with an NGCC plant and assess degradation over transient cycling at rates befitting various marketplaces. The crushed-rock TES pilot design is a technically feasible next step in the development of the technology and is built upon years of prior testing and demonstration. The proposed TES technology was developed by Brenmiller over the last 8 years and has been tested in 3 generations of demonstration units at various sites, globally. During this field testing, different characteristics and performance of the technology were validated, including the following key features: energy storage capacity, energy storage charge/discharge rate, energy storage loses, energy storage mechanical testing. This presentation will provide an update on the results of the conceptual design study for the modular crushed-rock TES system, integrated with a NGCC power plant.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

An Integrated Platform for Wind Plant Operations: From Atmosphere to Electrons to the Grid

Under the Atmosphere to Electrons to Grid project (A2e2g), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is developing an optimization platform for wind plant operations. The platform merges forecasting tools with aerodynamic and economic models in order to identify optimal operating schedules and controller functions that will maximize a wind plant's value streams for energy and other grid services. In this presentation, we will describe functionalities of the platform. We will also discuss the implications the use of the platform might have for understanding and valuing the capabilities of wind resources for power system operations.

A2E2G↗

Integrated Energy Systems White Paper

This analysis compares how the existing critical infrastructure continues to be vulnerable and with smart grid technologies being implemented exposes IES, power systems, the grid, and renewable energy in new ways. Continued work in cybersecurity will thwart efforts against adversaries having an opportunity to penetrate these systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

MULTIMARKET CONTROL AND OPERATION OF AN ADVANCED NUCLEAR REACTOR WITHIN AN INTEGRATED ENERGY PARK

Integrated energy systems (IES) are increasing in popularity and relevance given the heightened penetration of variable renewable energy sources. This variability is causing traditional baseload generators to reconsider their business cases as exclusively electrical generation stations and to instead consider ancillary products (e.g., hydrogen) to remain competitive in the current energy market. This work investigates the coupling, control, and overall viability of IES consisting of an advanced nuclear reactor coupled with a high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) plant and hydrogen storage. The goal of such IES is to produce hydrogen without impacting reactor operations during periods of off-peak electricity demand and then sell electricity to the grid during periods of high demand. To accomplish this, a novel heat exchanger, control scheme, and coupling strategy were needed to ensure that the advanced nuclear power plant could make these transitions. Idaho National Laboratory’s open-source Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) framework was used to develop novel coupling and control schemes that demonstrate the viability of multi-market operation of advanced nuclear reactors to produce both electricity and hydrogen. The results demonstrated the coupled IES could operate without impacting reactor systems while monetizing the electricity market and meeting all contractual hydrogen consumer demands.

08 HYDROGEN↗

An Innovative Circuit Breaker for Renewable Power Grids

A key step towards a carbon-neutral future could be reached through dispersed power grids, featuring networks of local-scale renewable energy and battery storage plants. To prevent these power grids from damaging themselves and their surroundings when electrical faults arise, they must be integrated with ‘circuit breakers’, which temporarily interrupt the current flowing through them. However, currently available circuit breakers cannot handle the medium-voltage direct currents best suited for these grids. Through an innovative new circuit breaker design, Steve Schmalz and his colleagues at Eaton Corporation, the Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT), Virginia Tech and the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), hope that this challenge will soon be overcome.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An evaluation of the demand response potential of integrated dynamic window and HVAC systems

Demand response (DR) increases the flexibility and reliability of the electricity grid as use of intermittent renewable energy sources increases. HVAC and envelope DR measures present the largest aggregate energy and peak demand savings potential of all commercial building end uses because their net demand savings occur during critical peak demand periods. Controllable envelope measures include switchable electrochromic windows, operable window attachments such as outdoor louvers, roller shades, and awnings, as well as other innovative facade technologies that can modulate both solar heat gain and daylight admission over a broad solar-optical range. This study evaluated the technical potential of DR-enabled dynamic windows to reduce critical peak demand for a prototypical medium office building situated in all 16 U.S. climates. Model predictive control (MPC) algorithms were designed to minimize electricity cost in daylit perimeter office zones through control of an electrochromic window with and without HVAC thermostat setpoint control. Conventional and time-of-use rates were used to shape the degree of DR. Median annual peak demand savings with window and thermostat control across all climate zones were 24.3 kW (4.4 W/m 2 ) per building or 15.9 W/m 2 for non-north perimeter zones. Resource adequacy at the whole building level was estimated to be 13.1 to 43.4 $/kW per year over the 30-year life of the installation. Co-benefits were increased energy efficiency, and reduced electricity cost and emissions. Visual and thermal comfort requirements were met at all times. Dynamic facades controlled by MPC have substantial technical potential for DR across all U.S. climates and warrant serious consideration for inclusion in DR portfolios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Synergistic Integration of Multiple Wave Energy Converters with Adaptive Resonance and Offshore Floating Wind Turbines through Bayesian Optimization

We developed a synergistic ocean renewable system where an array of Wave Energy Converters (WEC) with adaptive resonance was collocated with a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine (FOWT) such that the WECs, capturing wave energy through the resonance adapting to varying irregular waves, consequently reduced FOWFT loads and turbine motions. Combining Surface-Riding WECs (SR-WEC) individually designed to feasibly relocate their natural frequency at the peak of the wave excitation spectrum for each sea state, and to obtain the highest capture width ratio at one of the frequent sea states for annual average power in a tens of kilowatts scale with a 15 MW FOWT based on a semi-submersible, Bayesian Optimization is implemented to determine the arrangement of WECs that minimize the annual representation of FOWT’s wave excitation spectra. The time-domain simulation of the system in the optimized arrangement is performed, including two sets of interactions: one set is the wind turbine dynamics, mooring lines, and floating body dynamics for FOWT, and the other set is the nonlinear power-take-off dynamics, linear mooring, and individual WECs’ floating body dynamics. Those two sets of interactions are further coupled through the hydrodynamics of diffraction and radiation. For sea states comprising Annual Energy Production, we investigate the capture width ratio of WECs, wave excitation on FOWT, and nacelle acceleration of the turbine compared to their single unit operations. We find that the optimally arranged SR-WECs reduce the wave excitation spectral area of FOWT by up to 60% and lower the turbine’s peak nacelle acceleration by nearly 44% in highly occurring sea states, while multiple WECs often produce more than the single operation, achieving adaptive resonance with a larger wave excitation spectra for those sea states. The synergistic system improves the total Annual Energy Production (AEP) by 1440 MWh, and we address which costs of Levelized Cost Of Energy (LCOE) can be reduced by the collocation.

Engineering↗

Performance evaluation of a dynamic wall integrated with active insulation and thermal energy storage systems

Thermal energy storage systems in buildings can store cooling/heating energy during non-peak load hours or when renewable energy sources are available for later use when demanded. Using the building envelope as a thermal battery can help to shave the peak load, reduce the burden in electric grids, and enhance the occupant's thermal comfort. Sensible energy storage on wall systems such as thermally activated building systems can provide an active thermal storage strategy. However, most of the stored energy is used through passive means directed by the thermal lag, which can impede the on-demand release of the stored energy. Integrating active insulation systems with building thermal storage systems can increase the flexibility of charging and discharging time and duration. In this study, a wall system equipped with an active insulation system and thermally activated storage system was designed, and its performance on active cooling energy contribution was studied. The performances of energy storage (charging), release (discharging) of the thermal energy storage energy, and the active insulation system were studied separately and together as an integrated system. Results showed that the thermal properties of the thermal energy storage core material and the pipe spacing of both embedded pipes in the thermal energy storage and hydronic pipes used in the active insulation system affected the wall performance the most out of all the tested wall system parameters. During discharging, the heat flux into the wall was as high as 81.92 W/m 2 . This active insulation system's dynamic R-value varied between less than 1ft 2 •°F•h/BTU (0.18 m 2 •K/W) to 98% of the equally thick foam insulation's R-value.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Linking Plant and Microbial Traits to Soil Carbon for Reliable and Resilient Bioenergy Systems

Bioenergy systems in the United States offer a dual opportunity to supply renewable feedstocks while enhancing ecosystem services such as hydrologic regulation, erosion control, and soil carbon (C) storage. National assessments highlight the potential to grow perennial energy crops to improve soil function and ecosystem resilience. Realizing this potential requires understanding the ecological mechanisms that govern how C is added, transformed, and stabilized in soils. Plant traits determine the quantity, depth, and chemistry of organic inputs, while microbial processes—including carbon use efficiency, necromass formation, and trophic interactions—mediate their transformation and partitioning among soil carbon pools. These biological pathways are shaped by soil physical and chemical properties, including aggregation, texture, and mineralogy, and by environmental drivers such as temperature, moisture, and disturbance, leading to context-dependent outcomes across landscapes. Management practices that diversify feedstocks, minimize disturbance, and maintain soil cover can promote both biomass production and C retention, while microbial amendments and rhizosphere engineering offer emerging, but often context-dependent, tools to optimize plant–microbe interactions. Trade-offs between biomass yield and soil carbon storage may arise when systems favor rapid aboveground productivity at the expense of belowground inputs and microbial processing, underscoring the importance of trait combinations that support both functions. Advances in monitoring, reporting, and verification—spanning precision agriculture, remote sensing, and biosensing—are improving predictive capacity through microbial-explicit process models and model–experiment (ModEx) frameworks. By connecting soil, plant, and microbial processes with advances in modeling and biosensing, this review outlines research priorities focused on trait-based parameterization and ModEx integration. These priorities will support the design of bioenergy systems that are both reliable and resilient, enhancing renewable energy production and ecosystem sustainability.

bioenergy systems↗

Additional Capacity Value From Synergy of Variable Renewable Energy and Energy Storage

Current capacity markets often consider capacity credits from each resource independently, irrespective of the portfolio of resources, potentially overvaluing or undervaluing the capacity contribution of variable renewable energy (VRE) and energy storage (ES) in the grid. We propose a method for calculating the standalone and integrated capacity value of an added VRE resource with existing ES resources. The difference between the integrated and standalone value is the portfolio effect. This is the additional capacity value gained by the synergy of VRE and the existing fleet. Using chronological dispatch simulations and two different reliability metrics to estimate firm capacity, we demonstrate on a small test system that the portfolio effect can be substantial.

capacity credit↗

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods for Frequency Nadir Estimation in Power Systems

An increasing penetration level of inverter-based renewable energy resources changes the inertia of power systems, posing challenges for maintaining the desired system frequency stability. An accurate frequency nadir estimation is crucial for power system operators to prepare preventive actions against large frequency excursions. In this paper, five machine learning methods - linear regression, gradient boosting, support vector regression, an artificial neural network, and XGBoost - are applied to two different datasets, i.e., 1) the unit generation dataset and 2) the system total inertia and headroom dataset, for the prediction of the frequency nadir. The training and testing datasets are generated through extensive generation scheduling simulations using Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling (MI-DAS) toolbox on the Western Electricity Coordinating Council 240-bus system with high renewable penetration levels. Numerical results show that all five machine learning methods perform well in predicting the nadir frequency of the system. Among them, the gradient boosting and the XGBoost are clear winners yielding the best prediction accuracy in terms of four evaluation metrics.

data driven↗

Solar Steam on Demand

INTRODUCTION: This Report summarizes the research and development project performed by Sunvapor and the subrecipient National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) during the period of 10/01/2018-9/30/2021. The work was aimed at the economic integration of solar steam with an industrial process, and in particular, the advantages that a novel type of thermal energy storage and collector design could bring to the system. The completed work includes experimental research on the storage material, design of the collector, engineering of a complete solar steam plant, and economic analysis. The plant was, in the end, not constructed, due to COVID-19 impacts to the project host. PURPOSE: The purpose of the project was to test the hypothesis that a levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 2¢/kWh delivered to a steam-consuming process, including energy discharged from storage, could be feasibly achieved. PROJECT OBJECTIVES: For Budget Period 1 our objectives were to engineer a prototype industrial solar steam generation system, and design and test a Latent Heat Energy Storage (LHES) lab-scale system. For Budget Period 2 our objectives were to construct and test the solar steam prototype plant, and to build and factory-test a full LHES module. For Budget Period 3 our objective was to integrate the storage module with the solar steam generator, show successful long duration energy tests of the combined system, and use the results to project the LCOH of delivered steam to a second-generation plant. PROJECT OUTCOMES: Various phase change materials (PCMs) for the LHES were tested for compatibility with industrial steam uses as measured by phase change temperature, stability of latent heat of fusion, and their corrosive effects on steel (the heat exchanger material). Two of these materials (sodium formate and sodium/ potassium) showed potential to meet the technical criteria. The estimated cost of a complete LHES module with these materials did not meet economic targets. The developmental collector design builds from previous work to exploit the potential cost advantages of a spaceframe of lumber construction. Design improvements were achieved in assembly efficiency and structural performance. A complete engineering package was completed for the solar steam system without storage that included the developmental as well as commercial arrays. The plant was permitted for construction. The storage CAPEX for a reference plant was estimate to be greater than $\$ 57$/kWh. The LCOH of the system without storage and with developmental collectors of lumber construction was projected to be 2¢/kWh, assuming a FCR of 8.2% over thirty years. PROJECT MILESTONES: The Milestones fully achieved in the first Budget Period includes obtaining a Letter of Intent from an industrial steam-consuming project host, issuance of a construction permit, and corrosion resistance. The Milestone that was partly achieved was the degradation in the latent heat of fusion. Milestones associated with Budget Periods 2 and 3, related to the construction and operation of the plant were not achieved as a result of the host shutting down the plant due to COVID-19 impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Sunvapor was able to secure an agreement with a host to build a fully engineered and permitted solar steam plant that met the host’s economic goals. As a basis for comparison, the solar field design was comprised of eight commercial collector arrays and one developmental Green Parabolic Trough Collector (GPTC) array. The projected LCOH with a solar field entirely populated with a second generation GPTC met the goal of 2¢/kWh. The experimental program concerning the PCM indicated the feasibility of meeting their technical requirements for industrial steam uses. The cost of the complete LHES exceeded its $\$ 14$/kWh target, and therefore the inclusion of LHES could not be economically justified. Due to COVID-19 impacts on the host, the solar steam plant was not constructed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NOW-23: The 2023 National Offshore Wind Data Set

In this report, we present the latest wind resource data specifically tailored for offshore regions in the United States. The data set, known as the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), has been developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners, and surpasses the previous resource data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was released approximately ten years ago, in its offshore component. The WIND Toolkit has been widely utilized by stakeholders involved in wind resource assessments across the continental United States. However, with significant advancements in numerical weather prediction modeling over the past decade, the NOW-23 data set incorporates the latest research and development progress to provide stakeholders with an updated and cutting-edge resource for offshore wind analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NOW-23: the 2023 National Offshore Wind Data Set

In this report, we present the latest wind resource data specifically tailored for offshore regions in the United States. The data set, known as the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), has been developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners, and surpasses the previous resource data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was released approximately ten years ago, in its offshore component. The WIND Toolkit has been widely utilized by stakeholders involved in wind resource assessments across the continental United States. However, with significant advancements in numerical weather prediction modeling over the past decade, the NOW-23 data set incorporates the latest research and development progress to provide stakeholders with an updated and cutting-edge resource for offshore wind analysis. The NOW-23 data set is created using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its output is available, as for its predecessor, at 5-minute time resolution and 2-kilometer horizontal spatial resolution. However, the NOW-23 data set improves upon the WIND Toolkit through: 1. A modeling period of at least 20 years (and as long as 23 years in selected regions), starting in 2000 (compared to the 7-year 2007–2013 modeling period in the WIND Toolkit). 2. For several offshore regions, a region-specific sensitivity analysis, driven by an ensemble of WRF simulations, to assess the most adequate region-specific WRF setup. 3. An updated WRF model, from Version 3.4 used in the WIND Toolkit to Version 4.2.1 used for the NOW-23 data set, which incorporates significant research advancements. 4. The use of the state-of-the-art reanalysis product ERA5 (which supersedes the older ERA-Interim used in the WIND Toolkit) to provide atmospheric forcing at the WRF domain boundaries. Figure 1 shows the NOW-23 mean wind speed at 160 m above sea level (asl), which we use as proxy for hub-height of a commercial offshore wind turbine in this report across all regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗