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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error

Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design Space Exploration of Emerging Memory Technologies for Machine Learning Applications

Memory design space exploration methods study memory systems’ performances and limitations before implementation. The computer memory design space has grown exponentially because of the enormous growth of memory types, memory controllers, and application software. Computer simulators are commonly used for memory design space exploration. However, complex memory simulations take an enormous amount of time. Hence, in this paper, we proposed a machine learning-based design space exploration method for dynamic random-access memory and non-volatile memory systems. We applied our method to the CosmoGAN and LeNet applications to predict the following six memory response parameters: (i) bandwidth, (ii) power, (iii) average latency, (iv) average total latency, (v) memory reads, and (vi) memory writes. Our experimental results show that machine learning models can predict memory response parameter values faster than simulations. We used support vector machine, random forest, and gradient boosting machine learning models. We observed that the support vector machine provides better performance for bandwidth, average latency, and average total latency. The random forest model works better for memory reads and writes. The gradient boosting model provides superior prediction performance for power. We provide a detailed discussion on learning curve characteristics, error analysis, and memory type recommendation.

Hasan, S M Shamimul↗

DOE OSTI2021

Moving target defense for a serial communications system

A moving target defense scheme for a serial communications system is disclosed herein. A bus controller generates and broadcasts a nonce to remote terminals over a bus. The bus controller and the remote terminals generate a randomized sequence based upon the nonce and a shared secret that is shared between the bus controller and the remote terminals. The bus controller broadcasts first messages over the bus on first addresses that are derived from first portions of the randomized sequence. The remote terminals listen for the first messages that are broadcast over the bus on the first addresses. The bus controller broadcasts a shift message that causes the remote terminals to listen for second messages that are broadcast over the bus on second addresses that are derived from second portions of the randomized sequence.

Jenkins, Christipher D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optical authentication of images

Systems and methods performed for generating authentication information for an image using optical computing are provided. When a user takes a photo of an object, an optical authentication system receives light reflected and/or emitted from the object. The system also receives a random key from an authentication server. The system converts the received light to plenoptic data and uploads it to the authentication server. In addition, the system generates an optical hash of the received light using the random key, converts the generated optical hash to a digital optical hash, and uploads the digital optical hash to the authentication server. When the authentication server receives the upload, it verifies whether the time of the upload is within a certain threshold time from the sending of the random key and whether the digital optical hash was generated from the same light as the plenoptic data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optical authentication of images

Murialdo, Maxwell R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Artificial generation of representative single Li-ion electrode particle architectures from microscopy data

Accurately capturing the architecture of single lithium-ion electrode particles is necessary for understanding their performance limitations and degradation mechanisms through multi-physics modeling. Information is drawn from multimodal microscopy techniques to artificially generate LiNi 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 O 2 particles with full sub-particle grain detail. Statistical representations of particle architectures are derived from X-ray nano-computed tomography data supporting an ‘outer shell’ model, and sub-particle grain representations are derived from focused-ion beam electron backscatter diffraction data supporting a ‘grain’ model. A random field model used to characterize and generate the outer shells, and a random tessellation model used to characterize and generate grain architectures, are combined to form a multi-scale model for the generation of virtual electrode particles with full-grain detail. This work demonstrates the possibility of generating representative single electrode particle architectures for modeling and characterization that can guide synthesis approaches of particle architectures with enhanced performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Introducing Low-Cost Pyrazine Unit into Terpolymer Enables High-Performance Polymer Solar Cells with Efficiency of 18.23%

Recently, a random ternary copolymerization strategy has become a promising and efficient approach to develop high-performance polymer donors for polymer solar cells (PSCs). Here, in this study, a low-cost electron-withdrawing unit, 2,5-bis(4-(2-ethylhexyl)thiophen-2-yl)pyrazine (PZ-T), is incorporated into the polymer backbone of PM6 as the third component, and three D-A 1 -D-A 2 type terpolymers PMZ-10, PMZ-20, and PMZ-30 are synthesized by the random copolymerization strategy, with the PZ-T proportion of 10%, 20%, and 30%, respectively. The terpolymers exhibit downshifted highest occupied molecular orbital energy levels than PM6, which is beneficial for obtaining higher open-circuit voltage (V oc ) of the PSCs with the polymer as a donor. Importantly, the PSCs based on PMZ-10:Y6 demonstrate efficient exciton dissociation, higher and balanced electron/hole mobilities, desirable aggregation, and high power conversion efficiency of 18.23%, which is the highest efficiency among the terpolymer-based PSCs so far. The results indicate that the ternary copolymerization strategy with PZ-T as the second A-unit is an efficient approach to further improve the photovoltaic performance and reduce the synthetic cost of the D-A copolymer donors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Synergistic Enzyme Mixtures to Realize Near-Complete Depolymerization in Biodegradable Polymer/Additive Blends

Embedding catalysts inside of plastics affords accelerated chemical modification with programmable latency and pathways. Nanoscopically embedded enzymes can lead to near-complete degradation of polyesters via chain-end mediated processive depolymerization. The overall degradation rate and pathways have a strong dependence on the morphology of semicrystalline polyesters. Yet, most studies to date focus on pristine polymers instead of mixtures that contain additives and other components despite their nearly universal use in plastic production. Here, for this study, additives are introduced to purposely change the morphology of polycaprolactone (PCL) by increasing the bending and twisting of crystalline lamellae. These morphological changes immobilize chain ends preferentially at the crystalline/amorphous interfaces and limit chain-end accessibility by the embedded processive enzyme. This chain-end redistribution reduces the polymer-to-monomer conversion from >95% to less than 50%, causing formation of highly crystalline plastic pieces, including microplastics. By synergizing both random chain scission and processive depolymerization, it is feasible to navigate morphological changes in polymer/additive blends and to achieve near-complete depolymerization. The random scission enzymes in the amorphous domains create new chain ends that are subsequently bound and depolymerized by processive enzymes. Present studies further highlight the importance to consider how the host polymer's morphologies affect the reactions catalyzed by embedded catalytic species.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Novel pore size-controlled, susceptibility matched, 3D-printed MRI phantoms

We report the design concept and fabrication of MRI phantoms, containing blocks of aligned microcapillaires that can be stacked into larger arrays to construct diameter distribution phantoms or fractured, to create a “powder-averaged” emulsion of randomly oriented blocks for vetting or calibrating advanced MRI methods, that is, diffusion tensor imaging, AxCaliber MRI, MAP-MRI, and multiple pulsed field gradient or double diffusion-encoded microstructure imaging methods. The goal was to create a susceptibility-matched microscopically anisotropic but macroscopically isotropic phantom with a ground truth diameter that could be used to vet advanced diffusion methods for diameter determination in fibrous tissues. Two-photon polymerization, a novel three-dimensional printing method is used to fabricate blocks of capillaries. Double diffusion encoding methods were employed and analyzed to estimate the expected MRI diameter. Susceptibility-matched microcapillary blocks or modules that can be assembled into large-scale MRI phantoms have been fabricated and measured using advanced diffusion methods, resulting in microscopic anisotropy and random orientation. This phantom can vet and calibrate various advanced MRI methods and multiple pulsed field gradient or diffusion-encoded microstructure imaging methods. We demonstrated that two double diffusion encoding methods underestimated the ground truth diameter.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

A principle of maximum ignorance for semiclassical gravity

The principle of maximum ignorance posits that the coarse-grained description of a system is maximally agnostic about its underlying microscopic structure. We briefly review this principle for random matrix theory and for the eigenstate thermalization hypothesis. We then apply this principle in holography to construct ensembles of random mixed states. This leads to an ensemble of microstates which models our microscopic ignorance, and which on average reproduces the effective semiclassical physics of a given bulk state. We call this ensemble the state-averaging ansatz. The output of our model is a prediction for semiclassical contributions to variances and higher statistical moments over the ensemble of microstates. The statistical moments provide coarse-grained — yet gravitationally non-perturbative — information about the microstructure of the individual states of the ensemble. We show that these contributions exactly match the on-shell action of known wormhole configurations of the gravitational path integral. These results strengthen the view that wormholes simply parametrize the ignorance of the microstructure of a fundamental state, given a fixed semiclassical bulk description.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Linear growth of circuit complexity from Brownian dynamics

How rapidly can a many-body quantum system generate randomness? Using path integral methods, we demonstrate that Brownian quantum systems have circuit complexity that grows linearly with time. In particular, we study Brownian clusters of N spins or fermions with time-dependent all-to-all interactions, and calculate the Frame Potential to characterize complexity growth in these models. In both cases the problem can be mapped to an effective statistical mechanics problem which we study using path integral methods. Within this framework it is straightforward to show that the kth Frame Potential comes within ϵ of the Haar value after a time of order t ~ kN + k log k + log ϵ –1 . Using a bound on the diamond norm, this implies that such circuits are capable of coming very close to a unitary k-design after a time of order t ~ kN. We also consider the same question for systems with a time-independent Hamiltonian and argue that a small amount of time-dependent randomness is sufficient to generate a k-design in linear time provided the underlying Hamiltonian is quantum chaotic. These models provide explicit examples of linear complexity growth that are analytically tractable and are directly applicable to practical applications calling for unitary k-designs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spectral form factor of a quantum spin glass

It is widely expected that systems which fully thermalize are chaotic in the sense of exhibiting random-matrix statistics of their energy level spacings, whereas integrable systems exhibit Poissonian statistics. In this paper, we investigate a third class: spin glasses. These systems are partially chaotic but do not achieve full thermalization due to large free energy barriers. We examine the level spacing statistics of a canonical infinite-range quantum spin glass, the quantum p-spherical model, using an analytic path integral approach. We find statistics consistent with a direct sum of independent random matrices, and show that the number of such matrices is equal to the number of distinct metastable configurations — the exponential of the spin glass “complexity” as obtained from the quantum Thouless-Anderson-Palmer equations. We also consider the statistical properties of the complexity itself and identify a set of contributions to the path integral which suggest a Poissonian distribution for the number of metastable configurations. Our results show that level spacing statistics can probe the ergodicity-breaking in quantum spin glasses and provide a way to generalize the notion of spin glass complexity beyond models with a semi-classical limit.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Statistical analysis of spatial distribution of pores in metal additive manufacturing

We report mechanical properties of additively manufactured parts are sensitive to the presence of pores form during the manufacturing process. The impact of pores on the mechanical performance has been investigated extensively with respect to different parameters, such as pore volume fraction, shape, and size. However, statistical investigations focusing on the relationships between the spatial distribution of pores and process parameters; and consequently, the performance of the manufactured parts are scattered and limited. Also, these sparse investigations usually suffer from an ambiguous definition of terminologies. For instance, the required criteria to consider a point pattern as complete spatial randomness (CSR) are generally not clarified. Moreover, no numerical formalism is yet developed to show how much the observed spatial results are statistically significant. To address these shortcomings, the statistical definition of CSR in a point pattern and the procedure to quantitatively determine the deviation of a pattern from CSR were discussed. The explained statistical approach was used to investigate the effect of scanning speed parameter on the spatial distribution of gas pores in laser powder bed fusion manufactured stainless steel parts. Furthermore, and to highlight the impact of the spatial distribution of pores on mechanical properties, fatigue performances of parts with clustered and randomly distributed pores were simulated by finite element analysis. It is shown that by reducing the scanning speed, the spatial distribution of gas pores deviated more from CSR, and correspondingly fatigue performance deteriorated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intrepid MCMC: Metropolis-Hastings with exploration

In engineering examples, one often encounters the need to sample from unnormalized distributions with complex shapes that may also be implicitly defined through a physical or numerical simulation model, making it computationally expensive to evaluate the associated density function. For such cases, MCMC has proven to be an invaluable tool. Random-walk Metropolis Methods (also known as Metropolis-Hastings (MH)), in particular, are highly popular for their simplicity, flexibility, and ease of implementation. However, most MH algorithms suffer from significant limitations when attempting to sample from distributions with multiple modes (particularly disconnected ones). Here, in this paper, we present Intrepid MCMC - a novel MH scheme that utilizes a simple coordinate transformation to significantly improve the mode-finding ability and convergence rate to the target distribution of random-walk Markov chains while retaining most of the simplicity of the vanilla MH paradigm. Through multiple examples, we showcase the improvement in the performance of Intrepid MCMC over vanilla MH for a wide variety of target distribution shapes. We also provide an analysis of the mixing behavior of the Intrepid Markov chain, as well as the efficiency of our algorithm for increasing dimensions. A thorough discussion is presented on the practical implementation of the Intrepid MCMC algorithm. Finally, its utility is highlighted through a Bayesian parameter inference problem for a two-degree-of-freedom oscillator under free vibration.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A unifying modeling abstraction for infinite-dimensional optimization

Infinite-dimensional optimization (InfiniteOpt) problems involve modeling components (variables, objectives, and constraints) that are functions defined over infinite-dimensional domains. Examples include continuous-time dynamic optimization (time is an infinite domain and components are functions of time), PDE optimization problems (space and time are infinite domains and components are functions of space-time), as well as stochastic and semi-infinite optimization (random space is an infinite domain and components are a function of such random space). InfiniteOpt problems also arise from combinations of these problem classes (e.g., stochastic PDE optimization). Given the infinite-dimensional nature of objectives and constraints, one often needs to define appropriate quantities (measures) to properly pose the problem. Moreover, InfiniteOpt problems often need to be transformed into a finite dimensional representation so that they can be solved numerically. Here in this work, we present a unifying abstraction that facilitates the modeling, analysis, and solution of InfiniteOpt problems. The proposed abstraction enables a general treatment of infinite-dimensional domains and provides a measure-centric paradigm to handle associated variables, objectives, and constraints. This abstraction allows us to transfer techniques across disciplines and with this identify new, interesting, and useful modeling paradigms (e.g., event constraints and risk measures defined over time domains). Our abstraction serves as the backbone of an intuitive Julia-based modeling package that we call InfiniteOpt.jl. We demonstrate the developments using diverse case studies arising in engineering.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble methods for quantification of potassium oxide in ChemCam Mars and laboratory spectra

In this paper we test new approaches for predicting the amount of element oxides in rock samples from the ChemCam instrument suite onboard the NASA Curiosity rover by focusing on K 2 O. Using the expanded dataset compiled by Gasda et al. (2021) with and without the Earth to Mars (E2M and NoE2M) transformation discussed in Clegg et al. (2017) we trained blended submodels using the “double blending” technique and compared these to ensemble methods (Random Forest, ExtraTrees, and Gradient Boosting Regression). We found that ensemble methods performed similar to blended submodels when looking at RMSE-P on the laboratory spectra and provided significant advantages when looking at spectra coming from Mars. For the full model, blended submodels achieved an RMSE-P of 0.62 and 0.60 (E2M and NoE2M respectively) while Gradient Boosting Regression resulted in a slightly improved RMSE-P of 0.59 and 0.60. More importantly, by employing a local RMSE-P estimation technique where model performance is evaluated based on nearby test samples we found that using ensemble methods can lower the quantification limit for K 2 O from the current value of ≈0.6 wt% to ≈0.08 wt% using Extra Trees and Random Forest. This would allow for a much larger range of K 2 O values to be quantified on Mars with greater certainty given that most targets seen on Mars tend to have <1 wt% K2O. Finally, we used both Mean Decrease in Impurity (MDI) and permutation importance techniques to investigate the wavelengths used by the ensemble methods and found that they correspond to known potassium emission lines. This suggests that ensemble methods can provide an easier to train and improved alternative to blended submodels for predicting potassium compositions from Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Generation of Tunable Stochastic Sequences Using the Insulator–Metal Transition

Probabilistic computing is a paradigm in which data are not represented by stable bits, but rather by the probability of a metastable bit to be in a particular state. The development of this technology has been hindered by the availability of hardware capable of generating stochastic and tunable sequences of “1s” and “0s”. The options are currently limited to complex CMOS circuitry and, recently, magnetic tunnel junctions. Here, we demonstrate that metal–insulator transitions can also be used for this purpose. We use an electrical pump/probe protocol and take advantage of the stochastic relaxation dynamics in VO 2 to induce random metallization events. A simple latch circuit converts the metallization sequence into a random stream of 1s and 0s. The resetting pulse in between probes decorrelates successive events, providing a true stochastic digital sequence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗