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NASA NTRS2010

Assessing Requirements Volatility and Risk Using Bayesian Networks

There are many factors that affect the level of requirements volatility a system experiences over its lifecycle and the risk that volatility imparts. Improper requirements generation, undocumented user expectations, conflicting design decisions, and anticipated / unanticipated world states are representative of these volatility factors. Combined, these volatility factors can increase programmatic risk and adversely affect successful system development. This paper proposes that a Bayesian Network can be used to support reasonable judgments concerning the most likely sources and types of requirements volatility a developing system will experience prior to starting development and by doing so it is possible to predict the level of requirements volatility the system will experience over its lifecycle. This assessment offers valuable insight to the system's developers, particularly by providing a starting point for risk mitigation planning and execution.

Russell, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Ares V: Enabling Unprecedented Payloads for Space in the 21st Century

Numerous technical and programmatic studies since the U.S. space program began in the 1960s has emphasized the need for a heavy lift capability for exploration beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). The Saturn V once embodied that capability until it was retired. Now the Ares V cargo launch vehicle (CaLV) promises to restore and improve on that capability, providing unprecedented opportunities for human and robotic exploration, science, national security and commercial uses. This paper provides an overview of the capabilities of Ares V, both as an opportunity for payloads of increased mass and/or volume, and as a means of reducing risk in the payload design process. The Ares V is part of NASA s Constellation Program, which also includes the Ares I crew launch vehicle (CLV), Orion crew exploration vehicle (CEV), and Altair lunar lander. This architecture is designed to carry out the national space policy goals of completing the International Space Station (ISS), retiring the Space Shuttle fleet, and expanding human exploration beyond LEO. The Ares V is designed to loft upper stages and/or cargo, such as the Altair lander, into LEO. The Ares I is designed to put Orion into LEO with a crew of up to four for rendezvous with the ISS or with the Ares V Earth departure stage for journeys to the Moon. While retaining the goals of heritage hardware and commonality, the Ares V configuration continues to be refined through a series of internal trades. The current reference configuration was recommended by the Ares Projects and approved by the Constellation Program during the Lunar Capabilities Concept Review (LCCR) June 2008. The reference configuration defines the Ares V as 381 feet (116m) tall with a gross lift-off mass (GLOM) of 8.1 million pounds (3,704.5 mT). Its first stage will generate 11 million pounds of sea-level liftoff thrust. It will be capable of launching 413,800 pounds (187.7 mT) to LEO, 138,500 pounds (63 mT) direct to the Moon or 156,700 pounds (71.1 mT) in its dual-launch architecture role with Ares I. It could also launch 123,100 pounds (55.8 mT) to Sun-Earth L2. Assessment of astronomy payload requirements since Spring 2008 has indicated that Ares V has the potential to support a range of payloads and missions. Some of these missions were impossible in the absence of Ares V s capabilities. Collaborative design/architecture inputs, exchanges, and analyses have already begun between scientists and payload developers. A 2008 study by a National Research Council (NRC) panel, as well as analyses presented by astronomers and planetary scientists at two weekend conferences in 2008, support the position that Ares V has benefit to a broad range of planetary and astronomy missions. This early dialogue with Ares V engineers is permitting the greatest opportunity for payload/transportation/mission synergy and with the least financial impact to Ares V development. In addition, independent analyses suggest that Ares V has the opportunity to enable more cost-effective mission design. 1

Creech, Steve↗

NASA NTRS2010

Metrology Requirements of Future X-Ray Telescopes

Fundamental needs for future x-ray telescopes: a) Sharp images => excellent angular resolution. b) High throughput => large aperture areas. Generation-X optics technical challenges: a) High resolution => precision mirrors & alignment. b) Large apertures => lots of lightweight mirrors. Innovation needed for technical readiness: a) 4 top-level error terms contribute to image size. b) There are approaches to controlling those errors. Innovation needed for manufacturing readiness: Programmatic issues are at least as severe

Gubarev, Mikhail↗

NASA NTRS2006

SIM-PlanetQuest: Progress Report

SIM-PlanetQuest is a NASA astrophysics mission that is implementing the National Research Counsel's recommended Astrometric Interferometry Mission (AIM) to develop the first, in-space, optical, long-baseline Michelson Stellar Interferometer for performing micro-arcsecond-level astrometry. This level of astrometric precision will enable characterization of planetary systems around nearby stars and enable a number of key investigations in astrophysics including calibration of the cosmological distance scale, stellar and galactic structure and evolution, and dark matter/energy distribution. This paper provides an update on the SIM-PlanetQuest Mission covering the results of the 2005 mission redesign and the recent completion of the last in a series of technology "gates." The SIM-PlanetQuest mission redesign was directed by NASA to recover eroded mass and power margins and to meet specific implementation cost targets. The resulting mission redesign met all redesign objectives with minimal impact to mission science performance. This paper provides the mission redesign objectives and describes the resulting mission and system design including changes in science capability. SIM-PlanetQuest also completed the last of eight major technology development gates that were established in 2001 by NASA, completing the enabling technology development. The technology development program, the last gate, and its significance to the project's flight verification and validation (V&V) approach are briefly described (covered in more detail in a separate paper at this conference). An update on project programmatic status and plans is also provided.

astrometry↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA Spacecraft Fault Management Workshop Results

Fault Management is a critical aspect of deep-space missions. For the purposes of this paper, fault management is defined as the ability of a system to detect, isolate, and mitigate events that impact, or have the potential to impact, nominal mission operations. The fault management capabilities are commonly distributed across flight and ground subsystems, impacting hardware, software, and mission operations designs. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that 4 out of the 5 missions studied had significant overruns due to underestimating the complexity and support requirements for fault management. As a result of this and other recent experiences, the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Planetary Science Division (PSD) commissioned a workshop to bring together invited participants across government, industry, academia to assess the state of the art in fault management practice and research, identify current and potential issues, and make recommendations for addressing these issues. The workshop was held in New Orleans in April of 2008. The workshop concluded that fault management is not being limited by technology, but rather by a lack of emphasis and discipline in both the engineering and programmatic dimensions. Some of the areas cited in the findings include different, conflicting, and changing institutional goals and risk postures; unclear ownership of end-to-end fault management engineering; inadequate understanding of the impact of mission-level requirements on fault management complexity; and practices, processes, and tools that have not kept pace with the increasing complexity of mission requirements and spacecraft systems. This paper summarizes the findings and recommendations from that workshop, as well as opportunities identified for future investment in tools, processes, and products to facilitate the development of space flight fault management capabilities.

Newhouse, Marilyn↗

NASA NTRS2010

Results from the NASA Spacecraft Fault Management Workshop: Cost Drivers for Deep Space Missions

Fault Management, the detection of and response to in-flight anomalies, is a critical aspect of deep-space missions. Fault management capabilities are commonly distributed across flight and ground subsystems, impacting hardware, software, and mission operations designs. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for five missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that four out of the five missions studied had significant overruns due to underestimating the complexity and support requirements for fault management. As a result of this and other recent experiences, the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Planetary Science Division (PSD) commissioned a workshop to bring together invited participants across government, industry, and academia to assess the state of the art in fault management practice and research, identify current and potential issues, and make recommendations for addressing these issues. The workshop was held in New Orleans in April of 2008. The workshop concluded that fault management is not being limited by technology, but rather by a lack of emphasis and discipline in both the engineering and programmatic dimensions. Some of the areas cited in the findings include different, conflicting, and changing institutional goals and risk postures; unclear ownership of end-to-end fault management engineering; inadequate understanding of the impact of mission-level requirements on fault management complexity; and practices, processes, and tools that have not kept pace with the increasing complexity of mission requirements and spacecraft systems. This paper summarizes the findings and recommendations from that workshop, particularly as fault management development issues affect operations and the development of operations capabilities.

Newhouse, Marilyn E.↗

NASA NTRS2010

An International Strategy for Human Exploration of the Moon: The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) Reference Architecture for Human Lunar Exploration

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) was established in response to The Global Exploration Strategy: The Framework for Coordination developed by fourteen space agencies and released in May 2007. Several ISECG participating space agencies have been studying concepts for human exploration of the moon that allow individual and collective goals and objectives to be met. This 18 month study activity culminated with the development of the ISECG Reference Architecture for Human Lunar Exploration. The reference architecture is a series of elements delivered over time in a flexible and evolvable campaign. This paper will describe the reference architecture and how it will inform near-term and long-term programmatic planning within interested agencies. The reference architecture is intended to serve as a global point of departure conceptual architecture that enables individual agency investments in technology development and demonstration, International Space Station research and technology demonstration, terrestrial analog studies, and robotic precursor missions to contribute towards the eventual implementation of a human lunar exploration scenario which reflects the concepts and priorities established to date. It also serves to create opportunities for partnerships that will support evolution of this concept and its eventual realization. The ISECG Reference Architecture for Human Lunar Exploration (commonly referred to as the lunar gPoD) reflects the agency commitments to finding an effective balance between conducting important scientific investigations of and from the moon, as well as demonstrating and mastering the technologies and capabilities to send humans farther into the Solar System. The lunar gPoD begins with a robust robotic precursor phase that demonstrates technologies and capabilities considered important for the success of the campaign. Robotic missions will inform the human missions and buy down risks. Human exploration will start with a thorough scientific investigation of the polar region while allowing the ability to demonstrate and validate the systems needed to take humans on more ambitious lunar exploration excursions. The ISECG Reference Architecture for Human Lunar Exploration serves as a model for future cooperation and is documented in a summary report and a comprehensive document that also describes the collaborative international process that led to its development. ISECG plans to continue with architecture studies such as this to examine an open transportation architecture and other destinations, with expanded participation from ISECG agencies, as it works to inform international partnerships and advance the Global Exploration Strategy.

Laurini, Kathleen C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

An Analysis of Rocket Propulsion Testing Costs

The primary mission at NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) is rocket propulsion testing. Such testing is commonly characterized as one of two types: production testing for certification and acceptance of engine hardware, and developmental testing for prototype evaluation or research and development (R&D) purposes. For programmatic reasons there is a continuing need to assess and evaluate the test costs for the various types of test campaigns that involve liquid rocket propellant test articles. Presently, in fact, there is a critical need to provide guidance on what represents a best value for testing and provide some key economic insights for decision-makers within NASA and the test customers outside the Agency. Hence, selected rocket propulsion test databases and references have been evaluated and analyzed with the intent to discover correlations of technical information and test costs that could help produce more reliable and accurate cost projections in the future. The process of searching, collecting, and validating propulsion test cost information presented some unique obstacles which then led to a set of recommendations for improvement in order to facilitate future cost information gathering and analysis. In summary, this historical account and evaluation of rocket propulsion test cost information will enhance understanding of the various kinds of project cost information; identify certain trends of interest to the aerospace testing community.

Ramirez, Carmen↗

NASA NTRS2010

Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

Graber, Robert R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

LCROSS: A High Return, Small Satellite Mission

Early in 2006, the NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) held a competition for NASA Centers to propose innovative ideas for a secondary payload mission to launch with the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) to the Moon. The successful proposal could cost no more than $80 million dollars (less was preferred), would have to be ready to launch with the LRO in 31 months, could weigh no more than 1000 kg (fuelled), and would be designated a risk-tolerant "Class D" mission. In effect, NASA was offering a fixed-price contract to the winning NASA team to stay within a cost and schedule cap by accepting an unusually elevated risk position. To address this Announcement of Opportunity to develop a cost-and-schedule-capped secondary payload mission to fly with LRO, NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) in Moffett Field, CA, USA embarked on a brainstorming effort termed "Blue Ice" in which a small team was asked to explore a number of mission scenarios that might have a good chance for success and still fit within the stated programmatic constraints. From this work, ARC developed and submitted six of the nineteen mission proposals received by ESMD from throughout the Agency, one of which was LCROSS - a collaborative effort between ARC and its industrial partner, Northrop-Grumman (NG) in Redondo Beach, CA, USA.

Andrews, Daniel R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Current Trends in Satellite Laser Ranging

Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) techniques are used to accurately measure the distance from ground stations to retroreflectors on satellites and the moon. SLR is one of the fundamental techniques that define the international Terrestrial Reference Frame (iTRF), which is the basis upon which we measure many aspects of global change over space, time, and evolving technology. It is one of the fundamental techniques that define at a level of precision of a few mm the origin and scale of the ITRF. Laser Ranging provides precision orbit determination and instrument calibration/validation for satellite-borne altimeters for the better understanding of sea level change, ocean dynamics, ice budget, and terrestrial topography. Laser ranging is also a tool to study the dynamics of the Moon and fundamental constants. Many of the GNSS satellites now carry retro-reflectors for improved orbit determination, harmonization of reference frames, and in-orbit co-location and system performance validation. The GNSS Constellations will be the means of making the reference frame available to worldwide users. Data and products from these measurements support key aspects of the GEOSS 10-Year implementation Plan adopted on February 16, 2005, The ITRF has been identified as a key contribution of the JAG to GEOSS and the ILRS makes a major contribution for its development since its foundation. The ILRS delivers weekly additional realizations that are accumulated sequentially to extend the ITRF and the Earth Orientation Parameter (EOP) series with a daily resolution. Additional products are currently under development such as precise orbits of satellites, EOP with daily availability, low-degree gravitational harmonics for studies of Earth dynamics and kinematics, etc. SLR technology continues to evolve toward the next generation laser ranging systems as programmatic requirements become more stringent. Ranging accuracy is improving as higher repetition rate, narrower pulse lasers and faster detectors are implemented. Automation and pass interleaving at some stations is already expanding temporal coverage. Web-based safety keys are allowing the SLR network stations to range to optically vulnerable satellites. Some stations are experimenting with two-wavelength operation as a means of better understanding the atmospheric refraction and with very low power laser to improve eye-safety conditions. New retroreflector designs are improving the signal link and enable daylight ranging. Dramatic improvements have also been made with lunar ranging with the new APOLLO Site in New ?Mexico, USA and the upgraded lunar station "MEO" in Grasse,

Pearlman, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Development of a NASA 2018 Mars Landed Mission Concept

Fundamental to NASA's Mars Exploration Program (MEP) is an ongoing development of an integrated and coordinated set of possible future candidate missions that meet fundamental science and programmatic objectives of NASA and the Mars scientific community. In the current planning horizon of the NASA MEP, a landed mobile surface exploration mission launching in the 2018 Mars launch opportunity exists as a candidate project to meet MEP in situ science and exploration objectives. This paper describes the proposed mission science objectives and the mission implementation concept developed for the 2018 opportunity. As currently envisioned, this mission concept seeks to explore a yet-to-be-selected site with high preservation potential for physical and chemical biosignatures, evaluate paleoenvironmental conditions, characterize the potential for preservation of biosignatures, and access multiple sequences of geological units in a search for evidence of past life and/or prebiotic chemistry at a site on Mars.

Mars Astrobiology Explorer- Cacher (MAX-C)↗

NASA NTRS2010

An Environmental Control and Life Support System Concept for a Pressurized Lunar Rover

Pressurized rovers can add many attractive capabilities to a human lunar exploration campaign, most notably by extending the reach of astronauts far beyond the immediate vicinities of lunar landers and fixed assets such as habitats. Effective campaigns will depend on an efficient allocation of environmental control and life support system (ECLSS) equipment amongst mobile rovers and fixed habitats such that widespread and sustainable exploration can be achieved. This paper will describe some of the key drivers that influence the design of an ECLSS for a pressurized lunar rover and a conceptual design that has been formulated to address those drivers. Opportunities to realize programmatic and operational efficiencies through commonality of rover ECLSS and extravehicular activity (EVA) equipment have also been explored and will be described. Plans for the inclusion of ECLSS functionality in prototype lunar rovers will be summarized

Bagdigian, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Affordability Engineering: Bridging the Gap Between Design and Cost

Affordability is a commonly used term that takes on numerous meanings depending on the context used. Within conceptual design of complex systems, the term generally implies comparisons between expected costs and expected resources. This characterization is largely correct, but does not convey the many nuances and considerations that are frequently misunderstood and underappreciated. In the most fundamental sense, affordability and cost directly relate to engineering and programmatic decisions made throughout development programs. Systems engineering texts point out that there is a temporal aspect to this relationship, for decisions made earlier in a program dictate design implications much more so than those made during latter phases. This paper explores affordability engineering and its many sub-disciplines by discussing how it can be considered an additional engineering discipline to be balanced throughout the systems engineering and systems analysis processes. Example methods of multidisciplinary design analysis with affordability as a key driver will be discussed, as will example methods of data visualization, probabilistic analysis, and other ways of relating design decisions to affordability results.

Reeves, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Weak Stability Boundary, A Gateway for Human Exploration of Space

NASA plans for future human exploration of the Solar System describe only missions to Mars. Before such missions can be initiated, much study remains to be done in technology development, mission operations and human performance. While, for example, technology validation and operational experience could be gained in the context of lunar exploration missions, a NASA lunar program is seen as a competitor to a Mars mission rather than a step towards it. The recently characterized Weak Stability Boundary in the Earth-Moon gravitational field may provide an operational approach to all types of planetary exploration, and infrastructure developed for a gateway to the Solar System may be a programmatic solution for exploration that avoids the fractious bickering between Mars and Moon advocates. This viewpoint proposes utilizing the concept of Greater Earth to educate policy makers, opinion makers and the public about these subtle attributes of our space neighborhood.

Mendell, Wendell W.↗

NASA NTRS2010

High-Resolution X-Ray Telescopes

ODell, Stephen L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Exploration Space Suit Architecture: Destination Environmental-Based Technology Development

This paper picks up where EVA Space Suit Architecture: Low Earth Orbit Vs. Moon Vs. Mars (Hill, Johnson, IEEEAC paper #1209) left off in the development of a space suit architecture that is modular in design and interfaces and could be reconfigured to meet the mission or during any given mission depending on the tasks or destination. This paper will walk though the continued development of a space suit system architecture, and how it should evolve to meeting the future exploration EVA needs of the United States space program. In looking forward to future US space exploration and determining how the work performed to date in the CxP and how this would map to a future space suit architecture with maximum re-use of technology and functionality, a series of thought exercises and analysis have provided a strong indication that the CxP space suit architecture is well postured to provide a viable solution for future exploration missions. Through the destination environmental analysis that is presented in this paper, the modular architecture approach provides the lowest mass, lowest mission cost for the protection of the crew given any human mission outside of low Earth orbit. Some of the studies presented here provide a look and validation of the non-environmental design drivers that will become every-increasingly important the further away from Earth humans venture and the longer they are away. Additionally, the analysis demonstrates a logical clustering of design environments that allows a very focused approach to technology prioritization, development and design that will maximize the return on investment independent of any particular program and provide architecture and design solutions for space suit systems in time or ahead of being required for any particular manned flight program in the future. The new approach to space suit design and interface definition the discussion will show how the architecture is very adaptable to programmatic and funding changes with minimal redesign effort required such that the modular architecture can be quickly and efficiently honed into a specific mission point solution if required.

Hill, Terry R.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Lessons Learned from Mir - A Payload Perspective

Among the principal objectives of the Phase 1 NASA/Mir program were for the United States to gain experience working with an international partner, to gain working experience in long-duration space flight, and to gain working experience in planning for and executing research on a long-duration space platform. The Phase 1 program was to provide to the US early experience prior to the construction and operation of the International Space Station (Phase 2 and 3). While it can be argued that Mir and ISS are different platforms and that programmatically Phase 1 and ISS are organized differently, it is also clear that many aspects of operating a long-duration research program are platform independent. This can be demonstrated by a review of lessons learned from Skylab, a US space station program of the mid-1970's, many of which were again "learned" on Mir and are being "learned" on ISS. Among these are optimum crew training strategies, on-orbit crew operations, ground support, medical operations and crew psychological support, and safety certification processes

Uri, John J.↗