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Quantitative modeling of the accuracy in registering preoperative patient-specific anatomic models into left atrial cardiac ablation procedures

Purpose: In cardiac ablation therapy, accurate anatomic guidance is necessary to create effective tissue lesions for elimination of left atrial fibrillation. While fluoroscopy, ultrasound, and electroanatomic maps are important guidance tools, they lack information regarding detailed patient anatomy which can be obtained from high resolution imaging techniques. For this reason, there has been significant effort in incorporating detailed, patient-specific models generated from preoperative imaging datasets into the procedure. Both clinical and animal studies have investigated registration and targeting accuracy when using preoperative models; however, the effect of various error sources on registration accuracy has not been quantitatively evaluated. Methods: Data from phantom, canine, and patient studies are used to model and evaluate registration accuracy. In the phantom studies, data are collected using a magnetically tracked catheter on a static phantom model. Monte Carlo simulation studies were run to evaluate both baseline errors as well as the effect of different sources of error that would be present in a dynamicin vivo setting. Error is simulated by varying the variance parameters on the landmark fiducial, physical target, and surface point locations in the phantom simulation studies. In vivo validation studies were undertaken in six canines in which metal clips were placed in the left atrium to serve as ground truth points. A small clinical evaluation was completed in three patients. Landmark-based and combined landmark and surface-based registration algorithms were evaluated in all studies. In the phantom and canine studies, both target registration error and point-to-surface error are used to assess accuracy. In the patient studies, no ground truth is available and registration accuracy is quantified using point-to-surface error only. Results: The phantom simulation studies demonstrated that combined landmark and surface-based registration improved landmark-only registration provided the noise in the surface points is not excessively high. Increased variability on the landmark fiducials resulted in increased registration errors; however, refinement of the initial landmark registration by the surface-based algorithm can compensate for small initial misalignments. The surface-based registration algorithm is quite robust to noise on the surface points and continues to improve landmark registration even at high levels of noise on the surface points. Both the canine and patient studies also demonstrate that combined landmark and surface registration has lower errors than landmark registration alone. Conclusions: In this work, we describe a model for evaluating the impact of noise variability on the input parameters of a registration algorithm in the context of cardiac ablation therapy. The model can be used to predict both registration error as well as assess which inputs have the largest effect on registration accuracy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Quality control procedures for dynamic treatment delivery techniques involving couch motion

In this study, the authors introduce and demonstrate quality control procedures for evaluating the geometric and dosimetric fidelity of dynamic treatment delivery techniques involving treatment couch motion synchronous with gantry and multileaf collimator (MLC). Tests were designed to evaluate positional accuracy, velocity constancy and accuracy for dynamic couch motion under a realistic weight load. A test evaluating the geometric accuracy of the system in delivering treatments over complex dynamic trajectories was also devised. Custom XML scripts that control the Varian TrueBeam™ STx (Serial #3) axes in Developer Mode were written to implement the delivery sequences for the tests. Delivered dose patterns were captured with radiographic film or the electronic portal imaging device. The couch translational accuracy in dynamic treatment mode was 0.01 cm. Rotational accuracy was within 0.3°, with 0.04 cm displacement of the rotational axis. Dose intensity profiles capturing the velocity constancy and accuracy for translations and rotation exhibited standard deviation and maximum deviations below 3%. For complex delivery involving MLC and couch motions, the overall translational accuracy for reproducing programmed patterns was within 0.06 cm. The authors conclude that in Developer Mode, TrueBeam™ is capable of delivering dynamic treatment delivery techniques involving couch motion with good geometric and dosimetric fidelity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-CAMPUS-J-01: TG142 Complied Comprehensive Commissioning and Quality Assurance Procedure for Respiratory Gating

Purpose: To develop and establish a comprehensive gating commissioning and quality assurance procedure in compliance with TG142. Methods: Quality assurance tests on three Varian LINACs included beam output and energy constancy, calibration of surrogate, as well as phase and amplitude gating temporal accuracy. A diode array (MapCHECK 2) and film (Gafchromic EBT2) were used to measure the temporal accuracy of phase and amplitude gating windows. A motion simulation device (MotionSim) was used to simulate respiratory motion for both detectors. An end-to-end test was also performed on all three machines. The overall accuracy and uncertainty was analyzed and compared. Results: The end-to-end test using an anthropomorphic lung phantom (CIRS) results in an OSL dose difference reading within 5% (within measurement uncertainty) for both phase and amplitude gated treatment. Film results showed < 1% agreement between profiles for gated delivery and predicted dose. The diode array demonstrated an 80% passing rate for gamma criteria of 2%/0.2 mm, which results in a 111 msec temporal accuracy. However, the diode array is limited by its spatial resolution of measurements, due to its 7.07 mm diode spacing. Film provided higher measuring resolution, thus demonstrated a temporal accuracy of <100 msec. Conclusion: Results showed consistent respiratory gating stability and accuracy. MapCHECK 2 may not be sufficient for the temporal accuracy test in the respiratory gating treatment in order to meet the corresponding tolerance in TG142. One would need to decrease respiratory motion speed from the surrogate or tighten the gating window in order to be within tolerance of 100 msec temporal accuracy per TG-142. The end-to-end test offers insight to the overall accuracy and uncertainties with a gated protocol. Compared to static delivery, respiratory motion increases the overall uncertainty of treatment delivery from 3% to 5% dose difference.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

MO-A-16A-01: QA Procedures and Metrics: In Search of QA Usability

Radiation therapy has undergone considerable changes in the past two decades with a surge of new technology and treatment delivery methods. The complexity of radiation therapy treatments has increased and there has been increased awareness and publicity about the associated risks. In response, there has been proliferation of guidelines for medical physicists to adopt to ensure that treatments are delivered safely. Task Group recommendations are copious, and clinical physicists' hours are longer, stretched to various degrees between site planning and management, IT support, physics QA, and treatment planning responsibilities.Radiation oncology has many quality control practices in place to ensure the delivery of high-quality, safe treatments. Incident reporting systems have been developed to collect statistics about near miss events at many radiation oncology centers. However, tools are lacking to assess the impact of these various control measures. A recent effort to address this shortcoming is the work of Ford et al (2012) who recently published a methodology enumerating quality control quantification for measuring the effectiveness of safety barriers. Over 4000 near-miss incidents reported from 2 academic radiation oncology clinics were analyzed using quality control quantification, and a profile of the most effective quality control measures (metrics) was identified.There is a critical need to identify a QA metric to help the busy clinical physicists to focus their limited time and resources most effectively in order to minimize or eliminate errors in the radiation treatment delivery processes. In this symposium the usefulness of workflows and QA metrics to assure safe and high quality patient care will be explored.Two presentations will be given:Quality Metrics and Risk Management with High Risk Radiation Oncology ProceduresStrategies and metrics for quality management in the TG-100 Era Learning Objectives: Provide an overview and the need for QA usability metrics: Different cultures/practices affecting the effectiveness of methods and metrics. Show examples of quality assurance workflows, Statistical process control, that monitor the treatment planning and delivery process to identify errors. To learn to identify and prioritize risks and QA procedures in radiation oncology. Try to answer the question: Can a quality assurance program aided by quality assurance metrics help minimize errors and ensure safe treatment delivery. Should such metrics be institution specific.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Robust electromagnetically guided endoscopic procedure using enhanced particle swarm optimization for multimodal information fusion

Purpose: Electromagnetically guided endoscopic procedure, which aims at accurately and robustly localizing the endoscope, involves multimodal sensory information during interventions. However, it still remains challenging in how to integrate these information for precise and stable endoscopic guidance. To tackle such a challenge, this paper proposes a new framework on the basis of an enhanced particle swarm optimization method to effectively fuse these information for accurate and continuous endoscope localization. Methods: The authors use the particle swarm optimization method, which is one of stochastic evolutionary computation algorithms, to effectively fuse the multimodal information including preoperative information (i.e., computed tomography images) as a frame of reference, endoscopic camera videos, and positional sensor measurements (i.e., electromagnetic sensor outputs). Since the evolutionary computation method usually limits its possible premature convergence and evolutionary factors, the authors introduce the current (endoscopic camera and electromagnetic sensor’s) observation to boost the particle swarm optimization and also adaptively update evolutionary parameters in accordance with spatial constraints and the current observation, resulting in advantageous performance in the enhanced algorithm. Results: The experimental results demonstrate that the authors’ proposed method provides a more accurate and robust endoscopic guidance framework than state-of-the-art methods. The average guidance accuracy of the authors’ framework was about 3.0 mm and 5.6° while the previous methods show at least 3.9 mm and 7.0°. The average position and orientation smoothness of their method was 1.0 mm and 1.6°, which is significantly better than the other methods at least with (2.0 mm and 2.6°). Additionally, the average visual quality of the endoscopic guidance was improved to 0.29. Conclusions: A robust electromagnetically guided endoscopy framework was proposed on the basis of an enhanced particle swarm optimization method with using the current observation information and adaptive evolutionary factors. The authors proposed framework greatly reduced the guidance errors from (4.3, 7.8) to (3.0 mm, 5.6°), compared to state-of-the-art methods.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-J-08: Comparison of Unintended Radiation Doses to Organs at Risk Resulting From the Out-Of-Field Therapeutic Beams and From Image-Guidance X-Ray Procedures

Purpose: The unintended radiation dose to organs at risk (OAR) can be contributed from imaging guidance procedures as well as from leakage and scatter of therapeutic beams. This study compares the imaging dose with the unintended out-of-field therapeutic dose to patient sensitive organs. Methods: The Monte Carlo EGSnrc user codes, BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc, were used to simulate kV X-ray sources from imaging devices as well as the therapeutic IMRT/VMAT beams and to calculate doses to target and OARs on patient treatment planning CT images. The accuracy of the Monte Carlo simulations was benchmarked against measurements in phantoms. The dose-volume histogram was utilized in analyzing the patient organ doses. Results: The dose resulting from Standard Head kV-CBCT scans to bone and soft tissues ranges from 0.7 to 1.1 cGy and from 0.03 to 0.3 cGy, respectively. The dose resulting from Thorax scans on the chest to bone and soft tissues ranges from 1.1 to 1.8 cGy and from 0.3 to 0.6 cGy, respectively. The dose resulting from Pelvis scans on the abdomen to bone and soft tissues range from 3.2 to 4.2 cGy and from 1.2 to 2.2 cGy, respectively. The out-of-field doses to OAR are sensitive to the distance between the treated target and the OAR. For a typical Head-and-Neck IMRT/VMAT treatment the out-of-field doses to eyes are 1–3% of the target dose, or 2–6 cGy per fraction. Conclusion: The imaging doses to OAR are predictable based on the imaging protocols used when OARs are within the imaged volume and can be estimated and accounted for by using tabulated values. The unintended out-of-field doses are proportional to the target dose, strongly depend on the distance between the treated target and OAR, and are generally higher comparing to the imaging dose. This work was partially supported by Varian research grant VUMC40590.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-J-23: Characteristics of X-Rays From ExacTrac and Patient Dose From Imaging Procedures

Purpose: The purpose of this investigation is 1) provide the beam characteristics of x-rays produced by a Novalis TX ExacTrac system; 2) present a method to commission such beams, 3) present radiation dose to patients resulting from the imaging procedures. Methods: The Monte Carlo simulations were used to obtain the characteristics of kV beams and validated by measurements. The calculated beam HVLs, profiles and depth-dose curves were benchmarked against measurements. Twelve different image acquisition protocols were studied. The x-ray tube voltage ranges from 70 - 145 kV and milliampere-second (mAs) ranges from 8 - 80 mAs depending on the selection of Cranium, Head & Neck, Thorax or Abdomen imaging protocols. The beam output of each image acquisition protocol was determined by using an ionization chamber. The air kerma calibration factors of the ion chamber were obtained from an Accredited Dosimetry Calibration Laboratory for specified HVLs. Results: The agreements between measured and simulated results were within the uncertainties for HVLs, dose profiles and depth-dose curves. When %dd was normalized at 1 cm depth, its values at depth of 5 cm ranged from 45% to 66% of in water for kV beams range from 70 kVp to 145 kVp respectively. For head images, a typical dose to eye resulting from single projection ranged from 0.008 cGy to 0.025 cGy depending on the cranial image protocols selected. For a single pelvic image the skin dose could reach up to 0.1 cGy from an abdominal protocol. Conclusion: Although multiple pairs of x-ray images are commonly acquired during a daily patient treatment, the imaging doses to patients resulting from the sum of these projected x-rays are generally much less than 0.5 cGy. The knowledge obtained from this investigation can be used to estimate the image dose and optimize the used of the system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-T-118: Analysis of Variability and Stability Between Two Water Tank Phantoms Utilizing Water Tank Commissioning Procedures

Purpose: The commissioning criteria of water tank phantoms are essential for proper accuracy and reproducibility in a clinical setting. This study outlines the results of mechanical and dosimetric testing between PTW MP3-M water tank system and the Standard Imaging Doseview 3D water tank system. Methods: Measurements were taken of each axis of movement on the tank using 30 cm calipers at 1, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 200 mm for accuracy and reproducibility of tank movement. Dosimetric quantities such as percent depth dose and dose profiles were compared between tanks using a 6 MV beam from a Varian 23EX LINAC. Properties such as scanning speed effects, central axis depth dose agreement with static measurements, reproducibility of measurements, symmetry and flatness, and scan time between tanks were also investigated. Results: Results showed high geometric accuracy within 0.2 mm. Central axis PDD and in-field profiles agreed within 0.75% between the tanks. These outcomes test many possible discrepancies in dose measurements across the two tanks and form a basis for comparison on a broader range of tanks in the future. Conclusion: Both 3D water scanning phantoms possess a high degree of spatial accuracy, allowing for equivalence in measurements regardless of the phantom used. A commissioning procedure when changing water tanks or upon receipt of a new tank is nevertheless critical to ensure consistent operation before and after the arrival of new hardware.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-T-575: Novel Quality Assurance Procedure for the Small Animal Radiation Research Platform Using Commercial OSLDs

Purpose: To support radiobiological research with the Xstrahl small animal radiation research platform (SARRP) by developing a simple and effective method using commercially available optically stimulated luminescent dosimeters (OSLDs) that ensures dose output consistency. Methods: The SARRP output is calibrated according to the vendor standards and TG-61 protocol utilizing an ADCL calibrated ion chamber and electrometer at 2 cm depth of solid water. A cross calibration is performed by replacing the ion chamber with five OSLDs at the 2 cm depth. The OSLDs are irradiated to 500 cGy with 220 keV at 13 mA (78s delivery time) with a copper filter for an uncollimated 17×17 cm{sup 2} aperture. Instead of the absolute dose, the total amount of raw counts are collected from the OSLD reader and used for analysis. This constancy procedure was performed two more times over the course of three weeks with two OLSDs for validity. Results: The average reading for all OSLDs is 494939 with a 1-sigma standard deviation of the 5.8%. With an acceptable dose output range of ±10%, the OSLD readings have a counts range of [445445, 544433]. Conclusion: This method of using nanoDot™ OSLDs to perform output constancy checks for the SARRP ensures the output of the device is within 10% from the time of calibration and is convenient as well as time efficient. Because this, the frequency of output checks can be increased, which can improve the output stability for research with this device. The output trend of the SARRP will continue to be monitored in the future to establish a timeline for constancy checks and recalibration.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-F-BRA-01: A Procedure for the Fast Semi-Automatic Localization of Catheters Using An Electromagnetic Tracker (EMT) for Image-Guided Brachytherapy

Purpose: To evaluate the feasibility of brachytherapy catheter localization through use of an EMT and 3D image set. Methods: A 15-catheter phantom mimicking an interstitial implantation was built and CT-scanned. Baseline catheter reconstruction was performed manually. An EMT was used to acquire the catheter coordinates in the EMT frame of reference. N user-identified catheter tips, without catheter number associations, were used to establish registration with the CT frame of reference. Two algorithms were investigated: brute-force registration (BFR), in which all possible permutation of N identified tips with the EMT tips were evaluated; and signature-based registration (SBR), in which a distance matrix was used to generate a list of matching signatures describing possible N-point matches with the registration points. Digitization error (average of the distance between corresponding EMT and baseline dwell positions; average, standard deviation, and worst-case scenario over all possible registration-point selections) and algorithm inefficiency (maximum number of rigid registrations required to find the matching fusion for all possible selections of registration points) were calculated. Results: Digitization errors on average <2 mm were observed for N ≥5, with standard deviation <2 mm for N ≥6, and worst-case scenario error <2 mm for N ≥11. Algorithm inefficiencies were: N = 5, 32,760 (BFR) and 9900 (SBR); N = 6, 360,360 (BFR) and 21,660 (SBR); N = 11, 5.45*1010 (BFR) and 12 (SBR). Conclusion: A procedure was proposed for catheter reconstruction using EMT and only requiring user identification of catheter tips without catheter localization. Digitization errors <2 mm were observed on average with 5 or more registration points, and in any scenario with 11 or more points. Inefficiency for N = 11 was 9 orders of magnitude lower for SBR than for BFR. Funding: Kaye Family Award.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

MO-F-304-01: Applying PDSA to a Practical Clinical Problem: Variation in Procedural Doses Among Interventional Radiologists

With the current Maintenance of Certification (MOC) requirement for a practice quality improvement (PQI) project every 3 years, we all (well, most of us) find ourselves searching for projects that are both manageable and likely to have a positive impact on our clinical practice. In this session we will walk through the use of the Plan, Do, Study, Act (PDSA) cycle to address a common finding in practices where fluoroscopically guided interventions (FGI) are performed: variation in procedural doses among physicians. We will also examine strategies to secure physician support using carrots, not sticks. Learning Objectives: Review the PDSA cycle and its application to PQI. Discuss strategies for action in the example presented. Examine strategies for successful group PQI projects. A. Kyle Jones: Owner, FluoroSafety Joseph R. Steele: Consultant, FluoroSafety.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

WE-AB-BRA-04: Evaluation of the Tumor Registration Error in Biopsy Procedures Performed Under Real Time PET/CT Guidance

Purpose: PET/CT guidance is used for biopsies of metabolically active lesions, which are not well seen on CT alone or to target the metabolically active tissue in tumor ablations. It has also been shown that PET/CT guided biopsies provide an opportunity to verify the location of the lesion border at the place of needle insertion. However the error in needle placement with respect to the metabolically active region may be affected by motion between the PET/CT scan performed at the start of the procedure and the CT scan performed with the needle in place and this error has not been previously quantified. Methods: Specimens from 31 PET/CT guided biopsies were investigated and correlated to the intraoperative PET scan under an IRB approved HIPAA compliant protocol. For 4 of the cases in which larger motion was suspected a second PET scan was obtained with the needle in place. The CT and the PET images obtained before and after the needle insertion were used to calculate the displacement of the voxels along the needle path. CTpost was registered to CTpre using a free form deformable registration and then fused with PETpre. The shifts between the PET image contours (42% of SUVmax) for PETpre and PETpost were obtained at the needle position. Results: For these extreme cases the displacement of the CT voxels along the needle path ranged from 2.9 to 8 mm with a mean of 5 mm. The shift of the PET image segmentation contours (42% of SUVmax) at the needle position ranged from 2.3 to 7 mm between the two scans. Conclusion: Evaluation of the mis-registration between the CT with the needle in place and the pre-biopsy PET can be obtained using deformable registration of the respective CT scans and can be used to indicate the need of a second PET in real-time. This work is supported in part by a grant from Biospace Lab, S.A.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-F-T-647: Linac-Based Stereotactic Radiosurgery (SRS) in the Treatment of Trigeminal Neuralgia: Detailed Description of SRS Procedural Technique and Reported Clinical Outcomes

Purpose: SRS is an effective non-invasive alternative treatment modality with minimal-toxicity used to treat patients with medically/surgically refractory trigeminal neuralgia root(TNR) or those who may not tolerate surgical intervention. We present our linac-based SRS procedure for TNR treatment and simultaneously report our clinical outcomes. Methods: Twenty-eight TNR-patients treated with frame-based SRS at our institution (2009–2015) with a single-fraction point-dose of 60-80Gy to TNR were included in this IRB-approved study. Experienced neurosurgeon and radiation oncologist delineated the TNR on 1.0mm thin 3D-FIESTA-MRI that was co-registered with 0.7mm thin planning-CT. Treatment plans were generated in iPlan (BrainLAB) with a 4-mm diameter cone using 79 arcs with differential-weighting for Novalis-TX 6MV-SRS(1000MU/min) beam and optimized to minimize brainstem dose. Winston-Lutz test was performed before each treatment delivery with sub-millimeter isocenter accuracy. Quality assurance of frame placement was maintained by helmet-bobble-measurement before simulation-CT and before patient setup at treatment couch. OBI-CBCT scan was performed for patient setup verification without applying shifts. On clinical follow up, treatment response was assessed using Barrow Neurological Institute Pain Intensity Score(BNI-score:I–V). Results: 26/28 TNR-patients (16-males/10-females) who were treated with following single-fraction point-dose to isocenter: 80Gy(n=22),75Gy(n=1),70Gy(n=2) and 60Gy(n=1, re-treatment) were followed up. Median follow-up interval was 8.5-months (ranged:1–48.5months). Median age was 70-yr (ranged:43–93-yr). Right/left TNR ratio was 15/11. Delivered total # of average MUs was 19034±1204. Average beam-on-time: 19.0±1.3min. Brainstem max-dose and dose to 0.5cc were 13.3±2.4Gy (ranged:8.1–16.5Gy) and 3.6±0.4Gy (ranged:3.0–4.9Gy). On average, max-dose to optic-apparatus was ≤1.2Gy. Mean value of max-dose to eyes/lens was 0.26Gy/0.11Gy. Overall, 20-patients (77%) responded to treatment: 5(19%) achieved complete pain relief without medication (BNI score: I); 5(19%) had no-pain, decreased medication (BNI-score:II); 2(7.7%) had no-pain, but, continued medication (BNI-score:IIIA), and 8(30.8%) had pain that was well controlled by medication (BNI-score: IIIB). Six-patients (23.0%) did not respond to treatment (BNI-score:IV–V). Neither cranial nerve deficit nor radio-necrosis of temporal lobe was clinically observed. Conclusion: Linac-based SRS for medically/surgically refractory TNR provided an effective treatment option for pain resolution/control with very minimal if any normal tissue toxicity. Longer follow up of these patients is anticipated/needed to confirm our observations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Procedure of recovery of pin-by-pin fields of energy release in the core of VVER-type reactor for the BIPR-8 code

The procedure of recovery of pin-by-pin energy-release fields for the BIPR-8 code and the algorithm of the BIPR-8 code which is used in nodal computation of the reactor core and on which the recovery of pin-by-pin fields of energy release is based are briefly described. The description and results of the verification using the module of recovery of pin-by-pin energy-release fields and the TVS-M program are given.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Experimental calibration procedures for rotating Lorentz-force flowmeters

Rotating Lorentz-force flowmeters are a novel and useful technology with a range ofapplications in a variety of different industries. However, calibrating these flowmeters canbe challenging, time-consuming, and expensive. In this paper, simple calibration proceduresfor rotating Lorentz-force flowmeters are presented. These procedures eliminate the need forexpensive equipment, numerical modeling, redundant flowmeters, and system down-time.The calibration processes are explained in a step-by-step manner and compared to experimental results.

Lorentz force↗

How Would the Twenty-First-Century Warming Influence Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Connection to North American Rainfall: Assessment Based on a Revised Procedure for the IPO/PDO

Decadal climate variability of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Pacific Ocean can be characterized by interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) or Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Although the procedures to derive the IPO and PDO indices differ in their regional focuses and filtering methods to remove interannual variability, the IPO and PDO are highly correlated in time and are often used interchangeably. Studies have shown that the IPO and PDO conjointly (IPO/PDO for conciseness) play a vital role in modulating the pace of global warming. It is less clear, however, how externally forced global warming may, in turn, affect the IPO/PDO. One obstacle to revealing this effect is that the conventional definitions of the IPO/PDO fail to account for the spatial heterogeneity of the background warming trend, which causes the IPO/PDO to be conflated with the warming trend, especially for the twenty-first-century simulation when the forced change is likely to be more dominant. Using a large-ensemble simulation in the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), it is shown here that a better practice of detrending prior to EOF analysis is to remove the local and nonlinear trend, defined as the ensemble-mean time series at each grid box (or simply as the quadratic fit of the local time series if such an ensemble is not available). The revised IPO/PDO index is purely indicative of internal decadal variability. In the twenty-first-century warmer climate, the IPO/PDO has a weaker amplitude in space, a higher frequency in time, and a muted impact on global and North American temperature and rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Building and using dynamic risk-informed diagnosis procedures for complex system accidents

Accidents pose unique challenges for operating crews in complex systems such as nuclear power plants, presenting limitations in plant status information and lack of detailed monitoring, diagnosis, and response planning support. Advances in severe accident simulation and dynamic probabilistic risk assessment provide an opportunity to garner detailed insight into accident scenarios. In this article, we demonstrate how to build and use a framework which leverages dynamic probabilistic risk assessment, simulation, and dynamic Bayesian networks to provide real-time monitoring and diagnostic support for severe accidents in a nuclear power plant. We use general purpose modeling technology, the dynamic Bayesian network, and adapt it for risk management of complex engineering systems. This article presents a prototype model for monitoring and diagnosing system states associated with loss of flow and transient overpower accidents in a generic sodium fast reactor. We discuss using this framework to create a risk-informed accident management framework called Safely Managing Accidental Reactor Transients procedures. This represents a new application of risk assessment, expanding probabilistic risk assessment techniques beyond static decision support into dynamic, real-time models which support accident diagnosis and management.

Groth, Katrina M.↗

Procedure for locating oil and gas wells in the Appalachian Basin

Locating undocumented (or poorly documented) oil and gas wells for environmental assessment is often difficult. Remnant features that confirm the presence of a well (intact casing/wellhead, well bore, etc.) are typically less than a meter in size and often are obscured from direct observation on the ground or from the air (by dense vegetation, for example). To efficiently find such features, it is useful to first systematically compile publicly available digital data at progressively smaller scales prior to embarking on field campaigns. Further, the information presented here describes the procedure developed and used by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory to locate potential oil and gas well sites for follow-up field verification and characterization. Digital data are first compiled from national and state resources such as well location/production databases, historical topographic maps, historical aerial photographs, and LiDAR data. Although each data set is likely to be incomplete or inaccurate to some extent, combining the data resources using geographic information system technology can generate potential well site targets with a higher degree of confidence, which improves the efficiency of fieldwork activities. This workflow was developed in the Appalachian Basin region, and although certain aspects may be unique, the general process would be applicable to locating undocumented wells in other regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗