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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Statistics of highly magnified gravitational images in clusters of galaxies. I - Implications for the clusters. II - Implications for the sources

A study is presently conducted of the probability distribution of observing images of background galaxies that are gravitationally lensed in the form of elongated arcs by clusters of galaxies, as a function of arc width, curvature radius, and the elongation's orientation. An upper limit is obtained on the size of the cores which is smaller than cluster core radii obtained for the gas from the X-ray surface brightness. It is argued that lensing clusters tend to be elongated along the line of sight; projection effects will enhance surface density. In the second part of this work, it is shown that the number of arcs expected in lensing clusters is primarily dependent on the angular size of the sources, since lower magnification is required to generate an arc of fixed length for a larger source.

Miralda-Escude, Jordi↗
NASA NTRS1993

On the apparent insignificance of the randomness of flexible joints on large space truss dynamics

Deployable periodic large space structures have been shown to exhibit high dynamic sensitivity to period-breaking imperfections and uncertainties. These can be brought on by manufacturing or assembly errors, structural imperfections, as well as nonlinear and/or nonconservative joint behavior. In addition, the necessity of precise pointing and position capability can require the consideration of these usually negligible and unknown parametric uncertainties and their effect on the overall dynamic response of large space structures. This work describes the use of a new design approach for the global dynamic solution of beam-like periodic space structures possessing parametric uncertainties. Specifically, the effect of random flexible joints on the free vibrations of simply-supported periodic large space trusses is considered. The formulation is a hybrid approach in terms of an extended Timoshenko beam continuum model, Monte Carlo simulation scheme, and first-order perturbation methods. The mean and mean-square response statistics for a variety of free random vibration problems are derived for various input random joint stiffness probability distributions. The results of this effort show that, although joint flexibility has a substantial effect on the modal dynamic response of periodic large space trusses, the effect of any reasonable uncertainty or randomness associated with these joint flexibilities is insignificant.

Koch, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Derivation and application of hard deadlines for real-time control systems

The computation-time delay in the feedback controller of a real-time control system may cause failure to update the control input during one or more sampling periods. If this delay exceeds a certain limit called a hard deadline, either the necessary conditions for system stability are violated or the system leaves the allowed state-space. In such a case a dynamic failure is said to occur to the system. A method for calculating the hard deadlines in linear time-invariant control systems by considering system stability and the allowed state-space is presented. To derive necessary conditions for (asymptotic) system stability, the state difference equation is modified based on an assumed maximum delay and the probability distribution of delays whose magnitudes are less than, or equal to, the assumed maximum delay. Moreover, the allowed state-space - which is derived from given input and state constraints - is used to calculate the hard deadline as a function of time and the system state. A one-shot delay model in which a single event causes a dynamic failure is also considered. The knowledge of hard deadline is then applied to the design of error recovery in a triple modular redundant (TMR) controller computer.

Shin, Kang G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Gravitational microlensing - Powerful combination of ray-shooting and parametric representation of caustics

We present a combination of two very different methods for numerically calculating the effects of gravitational microlensing: the backward-ray-tracing that results in two-dimensional magnification patterns, and the parametric representation of caustic lines; they are in a way complementary to each other. The combination of these methods is much more powerful than the sum of its parts. It allows to determine the total magnification and the number of microimages as a function of source position. The mean number of microimages is calculated analytically and compared to the numerical results. The peaks in the lightcurves, as obtained from one-dimensional tracks through the magnification pattern, can now be divided into two groups: those which correspond to a source crossing a caustic, and those which are due to sources passing outside cusps. We determine the frequencies of those two types of events as a function of the surface mass density, and the probability distributions of their magnitudes. We find that for low surface mass density as many as 40 percent of all events in a lightcurve are not due to caustic crossings, but rather due to passings outside cusps.

Wambsganss, J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic simulation of fragment dynamics and their surface impacts in the SSME turbopump

Numerical simulations are used to model the dynamics of solid fragments in the high pressure fuel turbopump of the space shuttle main engine (SSME HPFTP). The simulations are conducted in a probabilistic structure in order to simulate the variance in the geometrical configuration, material properties and initial conditions of the solid fragments. The results of the particle dynamics simulations are presented in the form of the probability of surface impacts, and probability distributions of the impacting velocity and impingement angle.

Hamed, A.↗
NASA NTRS1956

A reevaluaion of data on atmospheric turbulence and airplane gust loads for application in spectral calculations

The available information on the spectrum of atmospheric turbulence is first briefly reviewed. On the basis of these results, methods are developed for the conversion of available gust statistics normally given in terms of counts of gusts or acceleration peaks into a form appropriate for use in spectral calculations. The fundamental quantity for this purpose appears to be the probability distribution of the root-mean-square gust velocity. Estimates of this distribution are derived from data for a number of load histories of transport operations; also, estimates of the variation of this distribution with altitude and weather condition are derived from available data and the method of applying these results to the calculation of airplane gust-response histories in operations is also outlined. (author)

Press, Harry↗
NASA NTRS1993

Wave and pseudo-diffusion equations from squeezed states

We show that the probability distributions P(sub n)(q,p;y) := the absolute value squared of (n(p,q;y), which are obtained from squeezed states, obey an interesting partial differential equation, to which we give two intuitive interpretations: as a wave equation in one space dimension; and as a pseudo-diffusion equation. We also study the corresponding Wehrl entropies S(sub n)(y), and we show that they have minima at zero squeezing, y = 0.

Daboul, Jamil↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Scaling, soil moisture and evapotranspiration in runoff models

The effects of small-scale heterogeneity in land surface characteristics on the large-scale fluxes of water and energy in the land-atmosphere system has become a central focus of many of the climatology research experiments. The acquisition of high resolution land surface data through remote sensing and intensive land-climatology field experiments (like HAPEX and FIFE) has provided data to investigate the interactions between microscale land-atmosphere interactions and macroscale models. One essential research question is how to account for the small scale heterogeneities and whether 'effective' parameters can be used in the macroscale models. To address this question of scaling, the probability distribution for evaporation is derived which illustrates the conditions for which scaling should work. A correction algorithm that may appropriate for the land parameterization of a GCM is derived using a 2nd order linearization scheme. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated.

Wood, Eric F.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Illustrated structural application of universal first-order reliability method

The general application of the proposed first-order reliability method was achieved through the universal normalization of engineering probability distribution data. The method superimposes prevailing deterministic techniques and practices on the first-order reliability method to surmount deficiencies of the deterministic method and provide benefits of reliability techniques and predictions. A reliability design factor is derived from the reliability criterion to satisfy a specified reliability and is analogous to the deterministic safety factor. Its application is numerically illustrated on several practical structural design and verification cases with interesting results and insights. Two concepts of reliability selection criteria are suggested. Though the method was developed to support affordable structures for access to space, the method should also be applicable for most high-performance air and surface transportation systems.

Verderaime, V.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Phase properties of multicomponent superposition states in various amplifiers

There have been theoretical studies for generation of optical coherent superposition states. Once the superposition state is generated it is natural to ask if it is possible to amplify it without losing the nonclassical properties of the field state. We consider amplification of the superposition state in various amplifiers such as a sub-Poissonian amplifier, a phase-sensitive amplifier and a classical amplifier. We show the evolution of phase probability distribution functions in the amplifier.

Lee, Kang-Soo↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of transform coding methods with an optimal predictor for the data compression of digital elevation models

Statistical encoding techniques enable the reduction of the number of bits required to encode a set of symbols, and are derived from their probabilities. Huffman encoding is an example of statistical encoding that has been used for error-free data compression. The degree of compression given by Huffman encoding in this application can be improved by the use of prediction methods. These replace the set of elevations by a set of corrections that have a more advantageous probability distribution. In particular, the method of Lagrange Multipliers for minimization of the mean square error has been applied to local geometrical predictors. Using this technique, an 8-point predictor achieved about a 7 percent improvement over an existing simple triangular predictor.

Lewis, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1994

Resolution requirements for velocity gradients in turbulence

Since high resolution numerical simulations of turbulent flows, or experiments at high Reynolds numbers, represent a substantial investment in resources, the estimation of the minimum resolution required for the study of a given property has been the subject of continued interest. Different properties require, in general, different resolutions, and the present paper is dedicated to the requirements for the measurement of the probability distribution functions of the velocity gradients and, in particular, of their low order moments. The deviation of these quantities from the values corresponding to a Gaussian distribution was one of the first indications of the presence of Reynolds number-dependent intermittency and has been the object of recent interest as numerical simulations have become able to explore the distribution of gradients in the low Reynolds number range, while new experiments have extended the range to increasingly high Reynolds numbers. We will use progressive filtering of the results of numerical simulations of isotropic turbulence as a model for the effect of a sensor of finite size. The numerical issues will be addressed first to ensure that the simulations are fully resolved from the point of view of the velocity gradients. This will also give us an estimate for the numerical resolution required for the different quantities.

Jimenez, Javier↗
NASA NTRS1994

Reliability analysis in the Office of Safety, Environmental, and Mission Assurance (OSEMA)

The technical personnel in the SEMA office are working to provide the highest degree of value-added activities to their support of the NASA Langley Research Center mission. Management perceives that reliability analysis tools and an understanding of a comprehensive systems approach to reliability will be a foundation of this change process. Since the office is involved in a broad range of activities supporting space mission projects and operating activities (such as wind tunnels and facilities), it was not clear what reliability tools the office should be familiar with and how these tools could serve as a flexible knowledge base for organizational growth. Interviews and discussions with the office personnel (both technicians and engineers) revealed that job responsibilities ranged from incoming inspection to component or system analysis to safety and risk. It was apparent that a broad base in applied probability and reliability along with tools for practical application was required by the office. A series of ten class sessions with a duration of two hours each was organized and scheduled. Hand-out materials were developed and practical examples based on the type of work performed by the office personnel were included. Topics covered were: Reliability Systems - a broad system oriented approach to reliability; Probability Distributions - discrete and continuous distributions; Sampling and Confidence Intervals - random sampling and sampling plans; Data Analysis and Estimation - Model selection and parameter estimates; and Reliability Tools - block diagrams, fault trees, event trees, FMEA. In the future, this information will be used to review and assess existing equipment and processes from a reliability system perspective. An analysis of incoming materials sampling plans was also completed. This study looked at the issues associated with Mil Std 105 and changes for a zero defect acceptance sampling plan.

Kauffmann, Paul J.↗