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DOE OSTI2022

A Risk-Driven Probabilistic Approach to Quantify Resilience in Power Distribution Systems

It is of growing concern to ensure resilience in power distribution systems to extreme weather events. However, there are no clear methodologies or metrics available for resilience assessment that allows system planners to assess the impact of appropriate planning measures and new operational procedures for resilience enhancement. In this paper, we propose a resilience metric using parameters that define system attributes and performance. To represent extreme events (tail probability), the conditional value-at-risk of each of the parameters are combined using Choquet Integral to evaluate the overall resilience. The effectiveness of the proposed resilience metric is studied within the simulation-based framework under extreme weather scenarios with the help of a modified IEEE 123-bus system. With the proposed framework, system operators will have additional flexibility to prioritize one investment over the others to enhance the resilience of the grid.

Poudyal, Abodh↗

DOE OSTI2022

Objective Phenotyping of Root System Architecture Using Image Augmentation and Machine Learning in Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)

Active breeding programs specifically for root system architecture (RSA) phenotypes remain rare; however, breeding for branch and taproot types in the perennial crop alfalfa is ongoing. Phenotyping in this and other crops for active RSA breeding has mostly used visual scoring of specific traits or subjective classification into different root types. While image-based methods have been developed, translation to applied breeding is limited. This research is aimed at developing and comparing image-based RSA phenotyping methods using machine and deep learning algorithms for objective classification of 617 root images from mature alfalfa plants collected from the field to support the ongoing breeding efforts. Our results show that unsupervised machine learning tends to incorrectly classify roots into a normal distribution with most lines predicted as the intermediate root type. Encouragingly, random forest and TensorFlow-based neural networks can classify the root types into branch-type, taproot-type, and an intermediate taproot-branch type with 86% accuracy. With image augmentation, the prediction accuracy was improved to 97%. Coupling the predicted root type with its prediction probability will give breeders a confidence level for better decisions to advance the best and exclude the worst lines from their breeding program. This machine and deep learning approach enables accurate classification of the RSA phenotypes for genomic breeding of climate-resilient alfalfa.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting deviations in ex-core detector response in Krsko NPP during an earthquake with Monte-Carlo neutron transport methods

To study the response of ex-core detectors during an earthquake, an approach using Monte Carlo code MCNP was developed. As a first step to predict the response of the ex-core detectors a detailed MCNP model of the Krsko reactor core was created. A detailed MCNP core model was used to calculate 3D power distributions inside the core. Calculated power distributions were verified by comparison to the CORD-2 calculations, which is currently used for core design calculation verification of the Krsko nuclear power plant. Due to the outside the core position of the neutron detectors, the hybrid code ADVANTG is used to generate weight windows to speed up neutron transport outside the reactor core. To be able to use ADVANTG, fixed neutron source had to be reconstructed from the criticality core calculation. It was found that the power range ex-core detector movement has a negligible effect on the value of the thermal neutron flux at the active part of the detector. However, the 5 cm radial movement of the intermediate-range detector leads to 7 % - 8 % change in thermal neutron flux within the active intermediate-range detector region. The analysis continued with the evaluation of the effect of core barrel movement on the ex-core detector response. It was determined that the 2 mm core barrel radial oscillation can lead to ∼ 4% change in thermal neutron flux within the active detector region. It was evaluated that reactor core movement inside the baffle can lead up to ∼ 1.9% and ∼ 1.3% deviation in power-range and intermediate-range detector signal respectively. Analysis showed that the mechanical movement of ex-core neutron detectors could not explain the fluctuations in the ex-core detector signal. However, combined core barrel and reactor core inside baffle oscillations could be a probable reason for the observed fluctuations in the ex-core detector signal during an earthquake. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Gamma-ray spectroscopy using angular distribution of Compton scattering

We present a novel method to perform gamma-ray spectroscopy suitable for extreme pileup situations, wherein traditional pulse-height spectroscopy is infeasible or impractical. One example of such application is spectral characterization of intense laser-based radiation sources that employ laser wakefield acceleration, in which a large number of photons can be produced in a well-collimated beam on a picosecond or shorter timescale. The method relies on the angularly-resolved calorimetric measurement of Compton scattering. The probability for a photon to undergo Compton scattering into a given solid angle is a function of its energy and is described by the Klein–Nishina formula. By first Compton scattering the incident beam and then measuring the total energies deposited in multiple detectors placed at various scattering angles, the incident beam energy spectrum can be reconstructed without resolving the individual events in detectors. Here, we compare the performance of an maximum likelihood expectation maximization algorithm with that of an artificial neural network to measure the energy spectrum of a beam of monoenergetic gamma rays from 137Cs decay. We demonstrate that the method can be used to reconstruct the characteristic inverse Compton scattering spectra.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Leading jets and energy loss

The formation and evolution of leading jets can be described by jet functions which satisfy non-linear DGLAP-type evolution equations. Different than for inclusive jets, the leading jet functions constitute normalized probability densities for the leading jet to carry a longitudinal momentum fraction relative to the initial fragmenting parton. We present a parton shower algorithm which allows for the calculation of leading-jet cross sections where logarithms of the jet radius and threshold logarithms are resummed to next-to-leading logarithmic (NLL') accuracy. By calculating the mean of the leading jet distribution, we are able to quantify the average out-of-jet radiation, the so-called jet energy loss. When an additional reference scale is measured, we are able to determine the energy loss of leading jets at the cross section level which is identical to parton energy loss at leading-logarithmic accuracy. We identify several suitable cross sections for an extraction of the jet energy loss and we present numerical results for leading subjets at the LHC. In addition, we consider hemisphere and event-wide leading jets in electron-positron annihilation similar to measurements performed at LEP. Besides the average energy loss, we also consider its variance and other statistical quantities such as the KL divergence which quantifies the difference between quark and gluon jet energy loss. We expect that our results will be particularly relevant for quantifying the energy loss of quark and gluon jets that propagate through hot or cold nuclear matter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Joint impedance and facies inversion of time-lapse seismic data for improving monitoring of CO 2 incidentally stored from CO 2 EOR

Time-lapse seismic monitoring is an effective and proven technology for mapping the distribution of CO 2 in a subsurface reservoir. When injected CO 2 displaces other reservoir fluids, porous-medium properties are changed and thus the seismic impedance changes, causing time-lapse seismic amplitude differences in the injection zones. The analysis and interpretation of images created from these amplitude differences can provide information about reservoir architecture and the CO 2 migration within the reservoir. Incorporating seismic inversion and rock physics into the interpretation of time-lapse seismic data can considerably improve the modeling and monitoring to detect and assess the location of CO 2 over time. The joint inversion method presented in this paper has an integral representation of the geology in the inversion algorithm using elastic facies, which provides information about the spatial distribution of the geologic heterogeneities controlling the movement of fluids in the reservoir. The method was successfully applied to time-lapse seismic data from a mature oil field undergoing CO 2 enhanced oil recovery. The estimated seismic acoustic impedances and facies reflect the characteristics of individual geologic facies and fluid conditions of the reservoir subject to CO 2 injection. Finally, the probabilities estimated by the joint impedance and facies inversion for the reservoir's litho-fluid facies can be used for forecasting CO 2 saturation and pressure changes within the target reservoir.

4D seismic↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution modeling of indoor radon exposure with uncertainty quantification in Utah

Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.

Wu, Yunhan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178842994)↗

DOE OSTI2025

𝑇-invariance violation in neutrino oscillations and matter effects

We investigate the impact of matter effects on 𝑇 (time-reversal)-odd observables, making use of the quantum-mechanical formalism of neutrino-flavor evolution. We attempt to be comprehensive and pedagogical. Matter-induced 𝑇-invariance violation (TV) is qualitatively different from, and more subtle than, matter-induced 𝐶⁢𝑃 (charge-parity)-invariance violation. If the matter distribution is symmetric relative to the neutrino production and detection points, matter effects will not introduce any new TV. However, if there is intrinsic TV, matter effects can modify the size of the 𝑇-odd observable. On the other hand, if the matter distribution is not symmetric, there is genuine matter-induced TV. For Earth-bound long-baseline oscillation experiments, these effects are small. This remains true for unrealistically-asymmetric matter potentials (for example, we investigate the effects of “hollowing out” 50% of the DUNE neutrino trajectory). More broadly, we explore consequences, or lack thereof, of asymmetric matter potentials on oscillation probabilities. While fascinating in their own right, 𝑇-odd observables are currently of limited practical use, due in no small part to a dearth of intense, well-characterized, high-energy electron-neutrino beams. Further in the future, however, intense, high-energy muon storage rings might become available and allow for realistic studies of 𝑇-invariance in neutrino oscillations.

CP violation↗

DOE OSTI2020

A New Approach to Distributed Hypothesis Testing and Non-Bayesian Learning: Improved Learning Rate and Byzantine-Resilience

Here, we study a setting where a group of agents, each receiving partially informative private signals, seek to collaboratively learn the true underlying state of the world (from a finite set of hypotheses) that generates their joint observation profiles. To solve this problem, we propose a distributed learning rule that differs fundamentally from existing approaches, in that it does not employ any form of “belief-averaging”. Instead, agents update their beliefs based on a min-rule. Under standard assumptions on the observation model and the network structure, we establish that each agent learns the truth asymptotically almost surely. As our main contribution, we prove that with probability 1, each false hypothesis is ruled out by every agent exponentially fast, at a network-independent rate that is strictly larger than existing rates. We then develop a computationally-efficient variant of our learning rule that is provably resilient to agents who do not behave as expected (as represented by a Byzantine adversary model) and deliberately try to spread misinformation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Equivalent Fundamental-Mode Source Simulations for Spherical Uranium and Plutonium Systems [Abstract]

The equivalent fundamental-mode source refers to a “source” which is identically distributed in space, energy, and angle as that of a fundamental-mode fission source distribution. It has previously been shown that the system fixed source multiplication ($M_{fs}$) relates to the effective multiplication factor ($\kappa_{eff}$) as $M_{fs} = \frac{g^*}{1-k_{eff}}$ The term $\mathcal{g}$* therefore relates the system source distribution to the system equivalent fundamental-mode source. As previously shown, the $\mathcal{g}$* term is approximately 1 for deeply subcritical systems and then diverges as the system multiplication increases. For a system with a point source located in the center of an assembly (such a sphere), $\mathcal{g}$* will be greater than 1; this happens because there is a higher probability of induced fission when all of the starter neutrons originate from the center of the sphere. For a uniform source, $\mathcal{g}$* is less than 1, but does not diverge from 1 as dramatically as seen by a point source. One reason that $\mathcal{g}$* is an important parameter is that it is used in measurement methods to infer reactor kinetics parameters ($β_{eff}$ being one example). This work will discuss multiple ways to simulate $\mathcal{g}$* using MCNP®6.2, which include use of traditional methods versus a single input file method that was recently published. A discussion related to methods to simulate $M_{fs}$ will be presented. Spherical systems of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) will be compared with previous works. In addition, results of plutonium including multiple reflector materials will be investigated. Simulated systems will include both parametric studies as well as configurations used in recent experiments performed at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). These studies will include subtleties associated with system geometry that have not been previously shown. Last, this work will investigate the relationship between $\mathcal{g}$* and reactor kinetics parameters (such as $β_{eff}$).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Arp 58 and Arp 68: two M 51-type systems

ABSTRACT We study two M 51-type systems Arp 68 and Arp 58, which strongly differ by their stellar masses, gas content, and environment. Long-slit spectral observations obtained at the Russian 6-m telescope were used to trace the distributions of a line-of-sight (LOS) velocity and a gas-phase oxygen abundance along the spectral cuts. Two systems are compared by their observed properties. We found a very strong large-scale non-circular motion of gas in both systems and a kpc-size saw-edged velocity profile along the tidal spiral arm of Arp 68, probably caused by the gas outflow due to the stellar feedback. A deep decrease of LOS velocity is also found in the ‘hinge’ region in Arp 58, where the inner spiral arm transforms into the tidal spiral arm, which was predicted earlier for M 51-type galaxies. Local sites of star formation and the satellites are compared with the evolutionary models at the colour–colour diagrams. Unlike the spiral galaxy Arp 58, the main galaxy in Arp 68 system is experiencing an ongoing burst of star formation. Gas-phase metallicity estimates show that Arp 58 has a higher metal abundance and reveals a shallow negative radial gradient of the gas-phase oxygen abundance. The emission gas in Arp 68 has noticeably lower metallicity than it is expected for a given luminosity of this galaxy, which may be connected with its space position in the local void.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Angle-dependent strong-field ionization and fragmentation of carbon dioxide measured using rotational wave packets

In this work, we experimentally study the angle-dependent single ionization of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) by linearly and circularly polarized pulses. The angle dependence of the ionization probability by linearly polarized pulses extracted from time-domain measurements on an impulsively excited rotational wave packet is compared with data obtained from a direct angle-scan measurement. The results from the measurement with linear and circular polarization are consistent with the adiabatic ionization approximation. Further, we extend the time-domain method to extract the dependence of the asymptotic momentum distribution of fragment ions on the orientation of the molecular axis, and apply it to investigate dissociative double ionization of CO 2 . We show that such measurements can directly test the validity of the axial recoil approximation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Potential of hotspot solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence for better tracking terrestrial photosynthesis

Abstract Remote sensing of solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) opens a new window for quantifying a key ecological variable, the terrestrial ecosystem gross primary production (GPP), because of the revealed strong SIF–GPP correlation. However, similar to many other remotely sensed metrics, SIF observations suffer from the sun‐sensor geometry effects, which may have important impacts on the SIF–GPP relationship but remain poorly understood. Here we used remotely sensed SIF, globally distributed tower GPP data, and a mechanistic model to provide a systematic analysis. Our results reveal that leaf physiology, canopy structure, and sun‐sensor geometries all affect the SIF–GPP relationship. In particular, we found that SIF observations in the sun‐tracking hotspot direction can be a better proxy of GPP due to the similar responses of light use efficiency and SIF escaping probability in the hotspot direction to the increasing incoming solar radiation. Such conclusions are supported by a variety of modeling simulations and satellite observations over various plant function types, at different time scales and with satellite observational modes. This study demonstrates the potential and advantage of normalizing SIF observations to the hotspot direction for better global GPP estimations. This study also demonstrates the great potentials of current and future spaceborne sun‐tracking satellite missions for a significant improvement in measuring and monitoring, at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, the changes in terrestrial ecosystem GPP in response to anticipated changes in the Earth's environmental conditions.

Hao, Dalei↗

DOE OSTI2020

Angular Correlation Function Estimators Accounting for Contamination from Probabilistic Distance Measurements

With the advent of surveys containing millions to billions of galaxies, it is imperative to develop analysis techniques that utilize the available statistical power. In galaxy clustering, even small sample contamination arising from distance uncertainties can lead to large artifacts, which the standard estimator for two-point correlation functions does not account for. We first introduce a formalism, termed decontamination, that corrects for sample contamination by utilizing the observed cross-correlations in the contaminated samples; this corrects any correlation function estimator for contamination. Using this formalism, we present a new estimator that uses the standard estimator to measure correlation functions in the contaminated samples but then corrects for contamination. We also introduce a weighted estimator that assigns each galaxy a weight in each redshift bin based on its probability of being in that bin. We demonstrate that these estimators effectively recover the true correlation functions and their covariance matrices. Our estimators can correct for sample contamination caused by misclassification between object types as well as photometric redshifts; they should be particularly helpful for studies of galaxy evolution and baryonic acoustic oscillations, where forward modeling the clustering signal using the contaminated redshift distribution is undesirable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Firewalls at exponentially late times

We consider a version of the typical state firewall setup recently reintroduced by Stanford and Yang, who found that wormholes may create firewalls. We examine a late-time scaling limit in JT gravity in which one can resum the expansion in the number of wormholes, and we use this to study the exact distribution of interior slices at times exponential in the entropy. We consider a thermofield double with and without early perturbations on a boundary. These perturbations can appear on interior slices as dangerous high energy shockwaves. For exponentially late times, wormholes tend to teleport the particles created by perturbations and render the interior more dangerous. In states with many perturbations separated by large times, the probability of a safe interior is exponentially small, even though these would be safe without wormholes. With perturbation, even in the safest state we conceive, the odds of encountering a shock are fifty-fifty. One interpretation of the phenomenon is that wormholes can change time-ordered contours into effective out-of-time-ordered folds, making shockwaves appear in unexpected places.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Liquid state properties of SEI components in dimethoxyethane

The solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer is a critical constituent of battery technology, which incorporates the use of lithium metals. Since the formation of the SEI is difficult to avoid, the engineering and harnessing of the SEI are absolutely critical to advancing energy storage. One problem is that much fundamental information about SEI properties is lacking due to the difficulty in probing a chemically complex interfacial system. One such property that is currently unknown is the dissolution of the SEI. This process can have significant effects on the stability of the SEI, which is critical to battery performance but is difficult to probe experimentally. Here, we report the use of ab initio computational chemistry simulations to probe the solution state properties of SEI components LiF, Li 2 O, LiOH, and Li 2 CO 3 in order to study their dissolution and other solution-based characteristics. Ab initio molecular dynamics was used to study the solvation structures of the SEI with a combination of radial distribution functions, discrete solvation structure maps, and vibrational density of states, which allows for the determination of free energies. From the change in free energy of dissolution, we determined that LiOH is the most likely component to dissolve in the electrolyte followed by LiF, Li 2 CO 3 , and Li 2 O although none were favored thermodynamically. Furthermore, this indicates that dissolution is not probable, but Li 2 O would make the most stable SEI with regard to dissolution in the electrolyte.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗