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DOE OSTI2025

Reactive Transport Modeling of Hydrogen Production from Serpentinization of Olivine

Hydrogen production from serpentinization of ultramafic rocks represents a promising natural pathway for generating carbon-free energy, yet its kinetics and controlling factors remain incompletely understood. A key challenge in advancing serpentinization research lies in the heterogeneity of porosity and permeability in rocks, which leads to nonuniform fluid velocity fields, as well as uncertainties in estimating reactive surface area and identifying appropriate mineral reaction equilibria. Additional complexities arise from the role of dissolved SiO 2 , Fe 2+ /Fe 3+ partitioning, and the limited effect of pH variations within the strongly alkaline regime on hydrogen yields. These challenges hinder straightforward extrapolation from laboratory tests to practical applications of hydrogen production from natural rocks. Here, in this work, we address these questions using a simulation-based reactive transport modeling framework calibrated against controlled laboratory experiments reported elsewhere. The model couples geochemical kinetics, multiphase flow, and mineralogical feedbacks, enabling systematic evaluation of how surface area, dissolved silica concentration, Fe redox state, temperature, and pressure govern serpentinization and H2 generation. We find that surface area exerts the strongest control on reaction rates and hydrogen yields, while Fe 2+ /Fe 3+ ratios act as secondary modulators. Elevated dissolved silica concentrations suppress hydrogen production but accelerate serpentine precipitation, whereas increasing pH beyond 12 within the strongly alkaline regime produces only marginal gains. Finally, we demonstrate that integrating targeted experiments with calibrated simulations offers a powerful and efficient approach for predicting hydrogen yields and assessing parameter trade-offs in industrial-scale applications. This integration can substantially reduce the experimental burden while improving predictive capability, thereby enhancing both the mechanistic understanding and the practical feasibility of hydrogen production from serpentinization.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Forest reorganisation effects on fuel moisture content can exceed changes due to climate warming in wet temperate forests

Abstract The distributions of vegetation and fire activity are changing rapidly in response to climate warming. In many regions, climate effects on dead fuel moisture content (FMC) are expected to increase future wildfire activity. However, forest FMC is largely driven by microclimate conditions, which are moderated from open weather by vegetation canopies. As shifts in vegetation increase under climate warming, the extent to which future fire activity will be driven by climate directly or associated vegetation shifts remains unresolved. Here, we present a study aimed at quantifying the relative magnitudes of (i) direct climate warming, and (ii) vegetation change, on FMC. Field sites to evaluate these effects were established in a natural laboratory of altered forest states to mature wet temperate forest in south‐eastern Australia. FMC was estimated using a process‐based model and 48 years of reconstructed climate data. Canopy effects on microclimate were captured by transferring inputs from climate to microclimate using models parameterised with field observations. To evaluate the relative magnitude of climate and vegetation effects, we calculated the maximum difference in mean annual FMC across annual climate replicates and compared this to FMC differences across reorganising forest sites. Our results show vegetation effects on FMC can exceed those related to expected climate change. Changes to forest structure and composition increased (+15.7%) and decreased (−12.3%) mean annual FMC, with a larger negative effect when forest cover was completely removed (−18.5%). In contrast, the largest climate effect on FMC was −6.6% across 48‐years of data. Our study demonstrates that the magnitude of vegetation effects on FMC can exceed expected climate change effects. Models of future fire activity that do not account for changing vegetation effects on microclimate are omitting a key biophysical control on FMC and therefore may not be accurately predicting future fire activity.

Brown, Tegan P.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Neural Posterior Estimation for Galaxy-Galaxy Strong Lensing

We present a deep learning model based on neural posterior estimation (NPE) for comprehensive extraction of astrophysical parameters from galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses. The unprecedentedly large amount of galaxy-scale strong lenses expected in future cosmological surveys (${\cal O}(10^5)$) promises to enable valuable statistical constraints in various studies ranging from galaxy formation to the nature of dark matter, but it also poses a significant challenge for traditional modelling pipelines. To this end, our automated model includes several new, state-of-the-art features and approaches leveraging the framework of simulation-based inference (SBI). We infer a total of 20 parameters describing the mass and light profiles of both lens and source galaxies, using simulated raw multi-band data modelled under noise and observing conditions expected by the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), with its summary statistics generated by a residual network. We examine the efficacy of multi-band data in extracting nearly 20 model parameters simultaneous from strong lensing images including lens light. Finally, We perform a comprehensive set of diagnostics for SBI models, evaluating the model's prediction accuracy, stability, and uncertainty quantification.

Zhao, Roy J. [Chicago U., KICP]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Storms Are an Important Driver of Change in Tropical Forests

Tropical forest dynamics and composition have changed over recent decades, but the proximate drivers of these changes remain unclear. Investigations into these trends have focused on increasing drought stress, CO 2 , temperature, and fires, whereas convective storms are generally overlooked. We argue that existing literature provides clear support for the importance of storms as drivers of forest change. We reanalyze the largest plot-based study of tropical forest carbon dynamics to show that lightning frequency—an indicator of storm activity—strongly predicts forest carbon storage and residence time, and its inclusion improves model fit and weakens evidence for the effects of high temperatures. Convective storm activity has increased 5%–25% per decade over the past half century. Extrapolating from historic trends, we estimate that storms likely contribute ca. 50% of the reported increases in biomass mortality across Amazonia, with all realistic combinations of assumptions indicating a possible range of 12%–118%. Spatial variation in storm activity shows weak relationships with drought, demonstrating that forests can experience high drought stress, high storm activity, or both. Accordingly, we hypothesise that convective storms are among the most important drivers of tropical forest change, and as such, they require significant research investment to avoid misguiding science, policy, and management.

biomass carbon↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling household-level party composition behavior for multiparty activities: a random parameter nested logit modeling approach

This study presents findings of a household-level party composition model for multiparty activities. It exploits data from a comprehensive Household Travel Survey conducted by Chicago Metropolitan Agency of Planning. The study estimates a random parameter nested logit model to capture households’ unobserved preference heterogeneity and non-proportional substitution patterns in terms of activity party composition for multiparty activities. A wide variety of household demographics, activity attributes and residential neighborhood characteristics are examined in this paper. The magnitude of the impacts of the determinants are tested in this study by analyzing the elasticity of the variables, which suggests that household demographics and attributes of the multiparty activities have significant effects on the household-level activity party composition. Residential neighborhood characteristics, although somewhat less impactful, still play a meaningful role. This model will be implemented within the POLARIS transportation systems simulator to improve the activity generation modeling workflow, and the prediction accuracy of various activity-travel components.

activity party composition↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Controlling Variables for Mercury Vapors in Alpha-4 at Y-12: Two Year Data Collection Update

Multiple sensor packages were deployed at Alpha-4 by SRNL, in collaboration with United Cleanup Oak Ridge LLC (UCOR), to monitor mercury vapor concentrations and meteorological parameters. These sensors collected data, inside and outside of the legacy-use facility, for approximately two years. Though data gaps still exist, particularly in colder months, several controlling variables were identified that govern mercury vapor concentrations within Alpha-4. Temperature, barometric pressure gradients, humidity, and wind speed have been identified as controlling variables. A strong positive correlation was seen between mercury vapor concentrations and temperature which generally followed diurnal fluctuations. Temperatures below approximately 10 degrees Celsius did not show any spikes above the PEL, indicating more work can be performed at any time during the winter months – more data should be collected to confirm consistency in this finding. Additionally, spikes in mercury vapor concentrations above that of the permissible exposure limit (PEL; 100 µg/m 3 ) occurred primarily in late afternoon or evening/overnight hours (between 3 PM and 6 AM), which suggests D&D operations might be best scheduled during morning or daytime hours prior to the late afternoon. However, a limited number of spikes did occur outside of the identified window, although this may be attributed to disturbances in air flow and mercury vapor release from work activities performed inside of the Alpha-4 building. The analysis conducted allows for a strong predictive capability for estimating mercury vapor concentrations based upon accurate meteorological parameters. Still, additional data collection, particularly in the winter months, could help to strengthen the predictive power and validate the identified data trends. Further, increased temporal resolution could also help to better characterize the incipient stages of the increases and decreases in the mercury vapor concentration. Continued monitoring support by SRNL at Y-12 is underway at Alpha-4 to further close remaining data gaps and support deactivation and decommissioning work. Within a collaborative effort with UCOR, the SRNL team is collecting mercury vapor data to study the efficacy of a novel mercury suppressant, FerroBlack® which was recently deployed at Alpha-4. In addition, modifications to the current monitoring setup to increase measurement resolution is also being investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying spatial and vertical variations in soil C:N relationships in permafrost-affected landscapes

Permafrost regions are experiencing rapid changes that affect carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles, with implications for vegetation dynamics and gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Soil C:N ratio is a key indicator of organic matter quality, yet spatial estimates of N stocks and C:N ratios lag behind those for C. We used quantile regression forests to compare direct and indirect digital soil mapping approaches for predicting soil C:N ratios at 0–30, 30–60, and 60–100 cm depths across a latitudinal transect in Alaska. The indirect approach – deriving C:N from separately predicted C and N stocks – outperformed direct mapping for the surface layer (0–30 cm), while direct mapping was marginally better at greater depths. However, prediction accuracy decreased with depth for both methods. Temperature and topography were the most important predictors. Both approaches overestimated low and underestimated high C:N ratios, with direct mapping showing greater bias. Our results underscore the challenges of modeling C:N ratios in heterogeneous, data-sparse permafrost soils, but also suggest that indirect mapping holds promise if supported by more extensive datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Explainable machine learning to quantify the value of proximal remote sensing in latent energy flux estimation

Proximal remote sensing has the potential to provide critical information on vegetation biophysical factors that can predict land-atmosphere exchange of water and energy. Latent energy (LE) flux is traditionally estimated using process-based models which rely on vegetation parameters that change during the growing season. Data-driven models have the potential to address these issues by offering flexible predictor selection and more efficient utilization of the information in predictor sets. These models require careful choice of predictors to avoid redundancy and allow robust cross-validation. In this study we present a systematic and comprehensive evaluation of machine learning (ML) models to assess the capability of meteorological and proximal sensing data for predicting LE at a half-hourly temporal resolution across multiple growing seasons for an agricultural system. The results presented here demonstrate that a model using four environmental predictors in combination with two proximal sensing variables can capture 88 % of the variability in LE. ML models using only three predictors (one meteorological and two proximal remote sensing) captured 81 % of LE variability, offering the best trade-off between performance and complexity. An ML model utilizing only two predictors, one proximal remote sensing variable and downwelling radiation, captured 77 % of LE variability. These results demonstrate the power of proximal remote sensing and meteorological observations to estimate land-atmosphere water vapor exchange, providing a solution where more direct methods such as eddy covariance are not available and for evaluations of agronomic management and genotypic variations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗

DOE OSTI2025

Magnetohydrodynamic simulations preliminarily predict the habitability and radio emission of TRAPPIST-1e

TRAPPIST-1e, an Earth-sized exoplanet in the habitable zone of the nearby M dwarf TRAPPIST-1, may experience magnetospheric responses that vary with stellar space weather, which could potentially influence both its habitability and radio emissions. Our objective is to investigate how different Earth-like magnetospheric configurations of TRAPPIST-1e – specifically variations in dipolar magnetic field strength and axial tilt – respond to diverse stellar space weather conditions, including events analogous to coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and to assess their implications for potential habitability and expected radio emissions. We conducted 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the TRAPPIST-1e system using the PLUTO code in spherical coordinates. The planetary magnetic field was modelled as dipolar, with equatorial strengths from Earth-like to several times stronger. The dipole axis spans a representative range of axial tilts. We investigate four stellar wind environments, from sub-Alfvénic flow to CME-like disturbances. Planetary shielding was quantified based on the magnetopause standoff distance, and radio powers were estimated via empirical scaling laws. Our simulations show that both shielding and radio power depend strongly on the magnetic configuration. Stronger fields increase protection, while larger tilts reduce it. Radio power increases with both field strength and tilt across all wind regimes. An Earth-like magnetic field can provide effective shielding even under intense CMEs, whereas high tilts require stronger fields. Predicted radio powers reach ~10 20 erg s −1 during CMEs, making bursts from close-in, magnetised planets more detectable. However, for TRAPPIST-1e, the maximum cyclotron frequency lies below the Earth’s ionospheric cutoff (~10 MHz), making ground-based detection currently infeasible.

Sun: magnetic fields↗

DOE OSTI2022

Differentiable, Learnable, Regionalized Process-Based Models With Multiphysical Outputs can Approach State-Of-The-Art Hydrologic Prediction Accuracy

Predictions of hydrologic variables across the entire water cycle have significant value for water resources management as well as downstream applications such as ecosystem and water quality modeling. Recently, purely data-driven deep learning models like long short-term memory (LSTM) showed seemingly insurmountable performance in modeling rainfall runoff and other geoscientific variables, yet they cannot predict untrained physical variables and remain challenging to interpret. Here, we show that differentiable, learnable, process-based models (called δ models here) can approach the performance level of LSTM for the intensively observed variable (streamflow) with regionalized parameterization. We use a simple hydrologic model HBV as the backbone and use embedded neural networks, which can only be trained in a differentiable programming framework, to parameterize, enhance, or replace the process-based model's modules. Without using an ensemble or post-processor, δ models can obtain a median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.732 for 671 basins across the USA for the Daymet forcing data set, compared to 0.748 from a state-of-the-art LSTM model with the same setup. For another forcing data set, the difference is even smaller: 0.715 versus 0.722. Meanwhile, the resulting learnable process-based models can output a full set of untrained variables, for example, soil and groundwater storage, snowpack, evapotranspiration, and baseflow, and can later be constrained by their observations. Both simulated evapotranspiration and fraction of discharge from baseflow agreed decently with alternative estimates. The general framework can work with models with various process complexity and opens up the path for learning physics from big data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Polaron absorption in aligned conjugated polymer films: breakdown of adiabatic treatments and going beyond the conventional mid-gap state model

This study provides the first experimental polarized intermolecular and intramolecular optical absorption components of field-induced polarons in regioregular poly(3-hexylthiophene-2,5-diyl), rr-P3HT, a polymer semiconductor. Highly aligned rr-P3HT thin films were prepared by a high temperature shear-alignment process that orients polymer backbones along the shearing direction. rr-P3HT in-plane molecular orientation was measured by electron diffraction, and out-of-plane orientation was measured through series of synchrotron X-ray scattering techniques. Then, with molecular orientation quantified, polarized charge modulation spectroscopy was used to probe mid-IR polaron absorption in the ℏω = 0.075 — 0.75 eV range and unambiguously assign intermolecular and intramolecular optical absorption components of hole polarons in rr-P3HT. This data represents the first experimental quantification of these polarized components and allowed long-standing theoretical predictions to be compared to experimental results. The experimental data is discrepant with predictions of polaron absorption based on an adiabatic framework that works under the Born–Oppenheimer approximation, but the data is entirely consistent with a more recent nonadiabatic treatment of absorption based on a modified Holstein Hamiltonian. This nonadiabatic treatment was used to show that both intermolecular and intramolecular polaron coherence break down at length scales significantly smaller than estimated structural coherence in either direction. Importantly, this strongly suggests that polaron delocalization is fundamentally limited by energetic disorder in rr-P3HT.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Compact representation and long-time extrapolation of real-time data for quantum systems using the ESPRIT algorithm

Representing real-time data as a sum of complex exponentials provides a compact form that enables both denoising and extrapolation. As a fully data-driven method, the Estimation of Signal Parameters via Rotational Invariance Techniques (ESPRIT) algorithm is agnostic to the underlying physical equations, making it broadly applicable to various observables and experimental or numerical setups. In this work, we consider applications of the ESPRIT algorithm primarily to extend real-time dynamical data from simulations of quantum systems. We evaluate ESPRIT's performance in the presence of noise and compare it to other extrapolation methods. We demonstrate its ability to extract information from short-time dynamics to reliably predict long-time behavior and determine the minimum time interval required for accurate results. We discuss how this insight can be leveraged in numerical methods that propagate quantum systems in time, and we show how ESPRIT can predict infinite-time values of dynamical observables, offering a purely data-driven approach to characterizing quantum phases.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preferential adsorption of noble gases in zeolitic tuff with variable saturation: A modeling study of counter-intuitive diffusive-adsorptive behavior

Noble gas transport through geologic media has important applications in the prediction and characterization of measured gas signatures related to underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). Retarding processes such as adsorption can cause significant species fractionation of radionuclide gases, which has implications for measured and predicted signatures used to distinguish radioxenon originating from civilian nuclear facilities or from UNEs. Accounting for the effects of variable water saturation in geologic media on tracer transport is one of the most challenging aspects of modeling gas transport because there is no unifying relationship for the associated tortuosity changes between different rock types, and reactive transport processes such as adsorption that are affected by the presence of water likewise behave differently between gas species. In this study, we perform numerical diffusive-adsorptive transport simulations to estimate gas transport parameters associated with bench-scale laboratory diffusion cell experiments measuring breakthrough in zeolitic and non-zeolitic rocks for a gaseous mixture of xenon, krypton, and SF 6 at varying degrees of water saturation (S w ). Counter-intuitive transport behavior was observed in the zeolitic rock experiments whereby breakthrough concentrations were significantly higher when the core was partially saturated (S w = 17 %) than under dry (S w = 0 %) conditions. Breakthrough of xenon was especially retarded in the dry core – likely due to comparatively high affinity of xenon for zeolitic adsorption sites – and estimated effective diffusion coefficients for all gases were approximately an order of magnitude lower than what is predicted by porosity-tortuosity models. We propose the counter-intuitive behavior observed is because water infiltration of zeolite nanopores reduces both the adsorptive capacity of the rock and the tortuosity of connected flow paths. We developed a two-site competitive kinetic Langmuir adsorption reaction for the porous media transport simulator in order to constrain transport parameters within zeolitic tuff, where differential adsorption to zeolite and non-zeolite pores was observed. We determined that liquid saturation-dependent diffusive-adsorptive transport is affected by subtle and at times competing processes that are specific to different gases, which have a significant overall influence on effective transport parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Insights into the year-round vertical distribution of chlorophyll concentration in high-latitude Arctic Ocean: implications for primary production

Climate-induced rapid changes in the Arctic Ocean, such as decreasing sea ice extent and increasing water temperature, are altering nutrient and light availability, profoundly impacting primary producer growth. However, access to the high-latitude Arctic Ocean is limited, and satellite data are primarily available only during summer, making continuous in-situ data collection challenging. We collected year-round chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration data in high-latitude regions using a mooring system and performed a comparative analysis with reanalysis data. Unlike previous satellite-based studies, which typically rely on surface measurements, we used the annual vertical distribution of Chl-a. These data were applied to the vertically generalized production model to accurately estimate annual primary production. The moored Chl-a concentration data showed that phytoplankton exhibited a typical subsurface chlorophyll maximum (SCM) layer as sea ice retreated in June. Contrary to the gradually deepening SCM distribution predicted by model-based reanalysis data, the SCM layer persisted for approximately 4 months. This indicates that light and nutrient conditions within the SCM layer remained stable, sustaining continuous phytoplankton growth. Annual primary production, reflecting this vertical distribution of Chl-a concentration, was 6.85 gC m −2 yr −1 . This exceeded satellite-based estimates by at least two-fold, highlighting the significant underestimation of primary production by satellite approaches. Estimating primary production while accounting for the vertical distribution of phytoplankton and light is essential for improving ecological models to better understand carbon cycle and food web changes in the Arctic Ocean, with important implications for climate change predictions.

Arctic Ocean↗