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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Comprehensive Simulation Study to Evaluate Future Vehicle Energy and Cost Reduction Potential

Under the umbrella of EERE’s Office of Sustainable Transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) seek to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate the potential for vehicle-level fuel savings is critical to understanding DOE’s impact and success in this mission For this study, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light-duty vehicles across the following: Powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split hybrid electric vehicle, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); Vehicle classes (compact car, mid-size car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], mid-size SUV, and pickup truck); Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). We assessed each technology for five different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. We assumed a delay of 5 years between laboratory year and model year (i.e., the year the technology is introduced into production). Finally, we included uncertainties for both technology performance and cost by considering two cases (note that these cases are not intended as predictions of future performance): Low case , aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on business as usual regulatory and market environments; High case , aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on research and development (R&D) targets developed through support by VTO and HFTO. We estimated the energy and cost impact of different technologies using Autonomie (Argonne undated), a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool developed by Argonne and used to assess the energy consumption, performance, and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies. The tool comprises a complete set of vehicle models to assess impacts across a wide range of classes (from light- to heavy-duty), powertrain configurations (from conventional to hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs], fuel cell electric vehicles [FCEVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs], and battery electric vehicles [BEVs]), components, and control strategies, including vehicle-level and component-level controls developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies: analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrain components to meet different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route-based vehicle energy control, and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions made and the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs estimated for various types of light-duty vehicles. Details regarding vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Active and Transfer Learning of High-Dimensional Neural Network Potentials for Transition Metals

Classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations represent a very popular and powerful tool for materials modeling and design. The predictive power of MD hinges on the ability of the interatomic potential to capture the underlying physics and chemistry. There have been decades of seminal work on developing interatomic potentials, albeit with a focus predominantly on capturing the properties of bulk materials. Such physics-based models, while extensively deployed for predicting the dynamics and properties of nanoscale systems over the past two decades, tend to perform poorly in predicting nanoscale potential energy surfaces (PESs) when compared to high-fidelity first-principles calculations. These limitations stem from the lack of flexibility in such models, which rely on a predefined functional form. Machine learning (ML) models and approaches have emerged as a viable alternative to capture the diverse size-dependent cluster geometries, nanoscale dynamics, and the complex nanoscale PESs, without sacrificing the bulk properties. Here, in this study, we introduce an ML workflow that combines transfer and active learning strategies to develop high-dimensional neural networks (NNs) for capturing the cluster and bulk properties for several different transition metals with applications in catalysis, microelectronics, and energy storage, to name a few. Our NN first learns the bulk PES from the high-quality physics-based models in literature and subsequently augments this learning via retraining with a higher-fidelity first-principles training data set to concurrently capture both the nanoscale and bulk PES. Our workflow departs from status-quo in its ability to learn from a sparsely sampled data set that nonetheless covers a diverse range of cluster configurations from near-equilibrium to highly nonequilibrium as well as learning strategies that iteratively improve the fingerprinting depending on model fidelity. All the developed models are rigorously tested against an extensive first-principles data set of energies and forces of cluster configurations as well as several properties of bulk configurations for 10 different transition metals. Our approach is material agnostic and provides a methodology to transfer and build upon the learnings from decades of seminal work in molecular simulations on to a new generation of ML-trained potentials to accelerate materials discovery and design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

SANDD: A directional antineutrino detector with segmented 6 Li-doped pulse-shape-sensitive plastic scintillator

We present a characterization of a small (9-liter) and mobile 0.1% 6 Li-doped pulse-shape-sensitive plastic scintillator antineutrino detector called SANDD (Segmented AntiNeutrino Directional Detector), constructed for the purpose of near-field reactor monitoring with sensitivity to antineutrino direction. SANDD comprises three different types of module. A detailed Monte Carlo simulation code was developed to match and validate the performance of each of the three modules. The combined model was then used to produce a prediction of the performance of the entire detector. Analysis cuts were established to isolate antineutrino inverse beta decay events while rejecting large fraction of backgrounds. The neutron and positron detection efficiencies are estimated to be 34.8% and 80.2%, respectively, while the coincidence detection efficiency is estimated to be 71.7%, resulting in inverse beta decay detection efficiency of 20.0% ± 0.2%(stat.) ± 2.1%(syst.). Finally, the predicted directional sensitivity of SANDD produces an uncertainty of 20° in the azimuthal direction per 100 detected antineutrino events.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Budget constrained machine learning for early prediction of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 patients

Abstract The combination of machine learning (ML) and electronic health records (EHR) data may be able to improve outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients through improved risk stratification and patient outcome prediction. However, in resource constrained environments the clinical utility of such data-driven predictive tools may be limited by the cost or unavailability of certain laboratory tests. We leveraged EHR data to develop an ML-based tool for predicting adverse outcomes that optimizes clinical utility under a given cost structure. We further gained insights into the decision-making process of the ML models through an explainable AI tool. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Health System in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. We tested the performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality. We performed post hoc analysis to obtain optimal feature sets under various budget constraints. We demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a significant reduction in cost at the expense of a small reduction in predictive performance. For example, when predicting ventilation, it is possible to achieve a 43% reduction in cost with only a 3% reduction in performance. Similarly, when predicting mortality, it is possible to achieve a 50% reduction in cost with only a 1% reduction in performance. This study presents a quick, accurate, and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parallel I/O Evaluation Techniques and Emerging HPC Workloads: A Perspective

Emerging workloads such as artificial intelligence, big data analytics and complex multi-step workflows alongside future exascale applications are anticipated future HPC workloads, which will result in a more diverse I/O system workload and even less predictable I/O behavior and access patterns. Along with the ever increasing gap between the compute and storage performance capabilities, the in-depth understanding of extreme-scale I/O behavior and the I/O performance modeling and prediction are essential tools of the large-scale I/O evaluation process for addressing the needs of extreme-scale hybrid workloads. In this survey article, we focus on the state-of-the-art of the I/O behavior and performance analysis process for HPC systems in a 5-year time window and identify future research challenges.

Neuwirth, Sarah↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data, scripts, and figures associated with a manuscript studying impact of climate and topography on post-fire vegetation recovery.

This data package is associated with the publication “Impact of Topography and Climate on Post-fire Vegetation Recovery Across Different Burn Severity and Land Cover Types through Machine Learning” submitted to Remote Sensing of Environment (Zahura et al. 2023). In this research, a machine learning algorithm, random forest (RF), was utilized to examine the impact of climate and topography on post-fire vegetation recovery. We used enhanced vegetation index (EVI) to examine varying burn severity and land cover types. The data package includes the input files for RF model training, outputs from model predictions and analysis, and python scripts to run the model, analyze the results to understand model performance and interpretability, and plot manuscript figures. This data package contains three folders (Data, Scripts, and Figures), a file-level metadata (FLMD) csv, and a data dictionary (dd) csv. Please see Postfire_recovery_flmd.csv for a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The data dictionary (Postfire_recovery_dd.csv) describes the csv column headers. The “Data” folder provides all the inputs and outputs to train the RF model, evaluate performance, and interpret predictions. The “Scripts” folder contains python scripts and jupyter notebooks for model training and result analysis. The “Figures” folder includes the figures used in the manuscript in “.png” and “.jpg” format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Generation IV Benchmarking of TRISO Fuel Performance Models Under Accident Conditions Final Report

The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) is a co-operative international endeavor of fourteen members organized to carry out the research and development needed to establish the feasibility and performance capabilities of the next generation nuclear energy systems. GIF selected six reactor technologies, amongst which is the Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) that is primarily dedicated to the cogeneration of electricity and hydrogen. The technical basis for VHTR is the tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel, the graphite as the core structure, helium coolant, as well as the dedicated core layout and lower power density to removal decay heat in a natural way. At the heart of safety features of the VHTR concept lie the TRISO fuel particles that are designed to keep their structural integrity and retain fission products at temperatures up to 1600°C. As part as the design and future operation of VHTRs, a key aspect is the accurate prediction of fuel performance under irradiation and accident conditions. Modeling and simulation allow prediction of TRISO fuel behavior when subject to neutron flux and in high temperature accident scenarios. The refinement of the fuel performance models and codes is performed by comparison to in-pile and out-of-pile experimental data that reproduce the expected irradiation conditions in high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). Historically, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) developed a benchmark dedicated to the validation of predictive methods for fuel and fission product behavior through the Coordinated Research Program CRP-2 (IAEA, 1997). CRP-2 was later updated to cover fuel fabrication, quality assurance, irradiation performance, safety testing, and spent fuel. The scope of the resulting CRP-6 benchmarks focused on HTGR fuel performance and fission product release (IAEA, 2012). Taking advantage of additional TRISO fuel fabrication, irradiation, and safety testing campaigns, GIF launched a Generation IV Benchmarking of TRISO Fuel Performance Models under Accident Conditions in late 2015. This GIF benchmark is a three-year program steered by Idaho National Laboratory (INL, USA). The other participants include the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA, Japan) and the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI, Korea). The objectives of the benchmark are to: follow on the IAEA CRP benchmarks, (2) model fission product release under accident conditions, (3) compare results obtained by the fuel performance modeling codes of the benchmark participants, and (4) compare these code predictions to experimental data. Safety tests chosen for modeling include the first and second experiments of the Advanced Gas Reactor program (AGR-1 and AGR-2) and the High Flux Reactor (HFR) EU1bis experiment. This report presents the results obtained by the three research institutions using their respective fuel performance modeling codes. Comparisons of the corresponding fission product release predictions are made with experimental data from AGR-1, AGR-2, and HFR-EU1bis. The benchmark results show good agreements between all participants but also show a general trend of over-prediction of the experimental release data, which is mainly attributed to the use of over-estimated diffusion coefficients.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the numerical sensitivity of cellular automata grain structure predictions to large thermal gradients and cooling rates

Cellular automata (CA) models of as-solidified grain structure, originally developed and applied to casting, have become a common means of predicting grain structure resulting from Additive Manufacturing (AM) processes. The majority of these models are based on the decentered octahedron approach, which attempts to correct for the effect of grid anisotropy on the prediction of competitive solidification of dendritic grains. However, AM solidification occurs under cooling rates ($\dot{T}$) and thermal gradients (G) that are orders of magnitude larger than those encountered in casting, and no systematic investigation on the effect of the CA model cell size (Δx) and time step (Δt) on AM microstructure predictions has been performed. Here, in this study, such an investigation is first performed via simulation of individual grains of various crystallographic orientations with a fixed, unidirectional G, showing that CA prediction of the steady-state undercooling matched the expected values based on the interfacial response function at small G and deviated from the expected values at large G. Simulation of competitive growth of multiple grains showed a weakening of the predicted texture as G and Δx became large. Simulation of solidification under AM conditions, where G and $\dot{T}$ vary spatially across the melt pools, showed that not only does grain selection weaken and deviate from expectations at large Δx, but grains with crystallographic $\langle$100$\rangle$ aligned with the grid directions are more adversely affected by the temperature field discontinuities than grains with other crystallographic orientations. Despite the fact that the exact grain competition results depended on Δt, the overall texture development was notably less sensitive to Δt than Δx, provided that a reasonable value of Δt is selected based on the ratio of Δx to the maximum local solidification velocity in the simulation domain. Finally, from the directional solidification and AM simulation results, an analysis of computational cost compared to simulation resolution is performed based on an equation derived to quantify the relatively inaccuracy in grain selection based on the model and temperature field inputs. From this analysis, it is concluded that there is a need for algorithmic improvements to improve CA grain competition accuracy for large G processing conditions as sufficiently small Δx to resolve the necessary competition is intractable for many AM processing conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Crystal Structure Prediction of Binary Alloys via Deep Potential

Predicting crystal structure has been a challenging problem in physics and materials science for a long time. A reliable energy calculation engine combined with an efficient global search algorithm, such as particle swarm optimization algorithm or genetic algorithm, is needed to conduct crystal structure prediction. In recent years, machine learning-based interatomic potential energy surface models have been proposed, potentially allowing us to perform crystal structure prediction for systems with the accuracy of density functional theory (DFT) and the speed of empirical force fields. In this paper, we employ a previously developed Deep Potential model to predict the intermetallic compound of the aluminum–magnesium system, and find six meta-stable phases with negative or nearly zero formation energy. In particular, Mg 12 Al 8 shows excellent ductility and Mg 5 Al 27 has a high Young's modulus. Based on our benchmark results, we propose a relatively robust structure screening criterion that selects potentially stable structures from the Deep Potential-based convex hull and performs DFT refinement. By using this criterion, the computational cost needed to construct the convex hull with ab initio accuracy can be dramatically reduced.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental Analysis of the Effects of Simulator Complexity on Human Performance

Human Reliability Analysis predicts accidents caused by human errors and is an important factor in Probabilistic Safety Assessment that comprehensively evaluates the safety of nuclear power plants. This study compares and analyzes the human performance of nuclear power plant operators according to the simulator complexity as part of the HRA data collection support method development project conducted by Idaho National Laboratory. This experiment was conducted by setting two types of simulators and scenarios as independent variables. The data collected by conducting the experiments in two different simulators were analyzed using an analysis of variance test and a correlation analysis, and four human performance charts were derived.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Convolutional Neural Network Model for Battery Capacity Fade Curve Prediction using Early Life Data

Herein, early prediction of battery performance degradation trends can facilitate research of new materials and cell designs, rapid deployment of batteries in real-world applications, timely replacement of batteries in critical applications, and even the secondary use market. In this study, we design a convolutional neural network model to predict the entire battery capacity fade curve - a critical indicator of battery performance degradation - using first 100 cycles of data (~ three weeks of testing). We use the discharge voltage-capacity curves as input to the model and automate the feature extraction process through the convolutional layers of the network. Our approach can predict the per cycle capacity fade rate and rollover cycle (knee point) in the capacity fade curve, which indicate the onset of rapid capacity decay. On the publicly available graphite/LiFePO 4 battery dataset, optimized networks predict the capacity fade curves, rollover cycle, and end of life with 3.7% (worst-case), 19%, and 17% mean absolute percentage errors, respectively.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

UniKP: a unified framework for the prediction of enzyme kinetic parameters

Prediction of enzyme kinetic parameters is essential for designing and optimizing enzymes for various biotechnological and industrial applications, but the limited performance of current prediction tools on diverse tasks hinders their practical applications. Here, we introduce UniKP, a unified framework based on pretrained language models for the prediction of enzyme kinetic parameters, including enzyme turnover number (k cat ), Michaelis constant (K m ), and catalytic efficiency (k cat / K m ), from protein sequences and substrate structures. A two-layer framework derived from UniKP (EF-UniKP) has also been proposed to allow robust k cat prediction in considering environmental factors, including pH and temperature. In addition, four representative re-weighting methods are systematically explored to successfully reduce the prediction error in high-value prediction tasks. We have demonstrated the application of UniKP and EF-UniKP in several enzyme discovery and directed evolution tasks, leading to the identification of new enzymes and enzyme mutants with higher activity. UniKP is a valuable tool for deciphering the mechanisms of enzyme kinetics and enables novel insights into enzyme engineering and their industrial applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gene-Metabolite Association Prediction with Interactive Knowledge Transfer Enhanced Graph for Metabolite Production

Identifying gene targets for enhancing metabolite production in metabolic engineering is challenging due to the vast research literature and the approximation in genome-scale metabolic model (GEM) simulations. Here, to address this, we propose the Gene-Metabolite Association Prediction task, which automates gene discovery for given metabolite-gene pairs, accompanied by a benchmark dataset of 2474 metabolites and 1947 genes for Saccharomyces cerevisiae (SC) and Issatchenkia orientalis (IO). This task is complicated by incomplete metabolic graphs and metabolic heterogeneity. We introduce an Interactive Knowledge Transfer mechanism based on Metabolism Graphs (IKT4Meta) to enhance prediction accuracy by integrating cross-metabolism knowledge. Using Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) to generate inter-graph links mitigates heterogeneity issues, while intra-graph links are propagated via these anchors. Gene-metabolite predictions are then performed on the enriched graphs integrating multiple microorganisms’ knowledge. Experiments show that IKT4Meta outperforms baselines by up to 12.3% in link prediction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Benchmarking of ENDF/B-VIII.1 Thermal Scattering Library for Hydrogen

In correctly characterizing the energy and momentum transfer at thermal and cold energies between neutrons and its interacting medium, thermal scattering libraries, which details energy states due to the intra- and inter-molecular bond effects for the medium materials, are applied in place of free-gas cross section libraries in a particle transport simulation code. They are essential to the neutron performance of a neutron facility like SNS, where thermalized neutrons from 20 K liquid hydrogen and ambient (~300 K) water are transported to the beamlines for neutron scattering experiments in studying materials. Recently, a new version of thermal scattering library for parahydrogen and orthohydrogen at 14-20 K was developed and to be released in ENDF/B-VIII.1. It is, therefore, important to benchmark its impacts on the prediction of moderator performance due to the updates in the thermal scattering library. In this study, the recent ENDF/B-VIII.1 thermal scattering library was compared to the current ENDF/B-VII.1 one in the neutron performance calculations for the decoupled and coupled hydrogen moderators at SNS under theorized and real working conditions. In addition, the predictions using both thermal scattering libraries were benchmarked to the measurements of moderator performance. The consistency between the libraries was observed mostly for parahydrogen and the difference in orthohydrogen at cold neutron energies was noted.

Lu, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning approaches for influenza A virus risk assessment identifies predictive correlates using ferret model in vivo data

In vivo assessments of influenza A virus (IAV) pathogenicity and transmissibility in ferrets represent a crucial component of many pandemic risk assessment rubrics, but few systematic efforts to identify which data from in vivo experimentation are most useful for predicting pathogenesis and transmission outcomes have been conducted. To this aim, we aggregated viral and molecular data from 125 contemporary IAV (H1, H2, H3, H5, H7, and H9 subtypes) evaluated in ferrets under a consistent protocol. Three overarching predictive classification outcomes (lethality, morbidity, transmissibility) were constructed using machine learning (ML) techniques, employing datasets emphasizing virological and clinical parameters from inoculated ferrets, limited to viral sequence-based information, or combining both data types. Among 11 different ML algorithms tested and assessed, gradient boosting machines and random forest algorithms yielded the highest performance, with models for lethality and transmission consistently better performing than models predicting morbidity. Comparisons of feature selection among models was performed, and highest performing models were validated with results from external risk assessment studies. Our findings show that ML algorithms can be used to summarize complex in vivo experimental work into succinct summaries that inform and enhance risk assessment criteria for pandemic preparedness that take in vivo data into account.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing the performance of density functionals in describing the adsorption of atoms and small molecules on Ni(111)

Reaction networks calculated using density functional theory (DFT) play a crucial role in understanding and predicting heterogeneous catalyst performance. However, results obtained using different density functionals can vary significantly. Accordingly, it is important to assess the accuracy of available functionals in capturing adsorption energetics derived from single-crystal adsorption microcalorimetry experiments. Here, we evaluate how different density functionals describe the molecular and dissociative adsorption of CH 3 I, the adsorption of CH 3 , I, and H, and the dissociative adsorption of CH 4 on Ni(111). First, we identify energetically-preferred adsorbed states for each adsorbate at three surface coverages and calculate the corresponding enthalpies of adsorption at 160 K. Then, we compare the results to experimental measurements published in the literature. For each adsorption process we find at least one functional that is quantitatively accurate within experimental error, but no functional is accurate (within experimental error) for all adsorption processes studied. Even when assuming an additional DFT error of ±20 kJ/mol on top of the experimental error, only the PBE-D3 and RPBE-D3 functionals are accurate for all considered adsorption systems. Overall, these results indicate that quantitative agreement between density functional theory calculations and experimental measurements is both system- and functional-dependent. Importantly, single-crystal adsorption microcalorimetry experiments will continue to play an important role for benchmarking density functionals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗