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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1992

Performance Evaluation and Modeling Techniques for Parallel Processors

In practice, the performance evaluation of supercomputers is still substantially driven by singlepoint estimates of metrics (e.g., MFLOPS) obtained by running characteristic benchmarks or workloads. With the rapid increase in the use of time-shared multiprogramming in these systems, such measurements are clearly inadequate. This is because multiprogramming and system overhead, as well as other degradations in performance due to time varying characteristics of workloads, are not taken into account. In multiprogrammed environments, multiple jobs and users can dramatically increase the amount of system overhead and degrade the performance of the machine. Performance techniques, such as benchmarking, which characterize performance on a dedicated machine ignore this major component of true computer performance. Due to the complexity of analysis, there has been little work done in analyzing, modeling, and predicting the performance of applications in multiprogrammed environments. This is especially true for parallel processors, where the costs and benefits of multi-user workloads are exacerbated. While some may claim that the issue of multiprogramming is not a viable one in the supercomputer market, experience shows otherwise. Even in recent massively parallel machines, multiprogramming is a key component. It has even been claimed that a partial cause of the demise of the CM2 was the fact that it did not efficiently support time-sharing. In the same paper, Gordon Bell postulates that, multicomputers will evolve to multiprocessors in order to support efficient multiprogramming. Therefore, it is clear that parallel processors of the future will be required to offer the user a time-shared environment with reasonable response times for the applications. In this type of environment, the most important performance metric is the completion of response time of a given application. However, there are a few evaluation efforts addressing this issue.

Dimpsey, Robert Tod↗

DOE OSTI2023

Building a DFT+U machine learning interatomic potential for uranium dioxide

Despite uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) being a widely used nuclear fuel, fuel performance models rely extensively on empirical correlations of material behavior, leveraging the historical operating experience of UO 2 . Mechanistic models that consider an atomistic understanding of the processes governing fuel performance (such as fission gas release and creep) will enable a better description of fuel behavior under non-prototypical conditions such as in new reactor concepts or for modified UO 2 fuel compositions. To this end, molecular dynamics simulation is a powerful tool for rapidly predicting physical properties of proposed fuel candidates. However, the reliability of these simulations depends largely on the accuracy of the atomic forces. Traditionally, these forces are computed using either a classical force field (FF) or density functional theory (DFT). While DFT is relatively accurate, the computational cost is burdensome, especially for f-electron elements, such as actinides. By contrast, classical FFs are computationally efficient but are less accurate. For these reasons, we report a new accurate machine learning interatomic potential (MLIP) for UO 2 that provides high-fidelity reproduction of DFT forces at a similar low cost to classical FFs. We employ an active learning approach that autonomously augments the DFT training data set to iteratively refine the MLIP. To further improve the quality of our predictions, we utilize transfer learning to retrain our MLIP to higher-accuracy DFT+U data. We validate our MLIPs by comparing predicted physical properties (e.g., thermal expansion and elastic properties) with those from existing classical FFs and DFT/DFT+U calculations, as well as with experimental data when available.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

PreMevE‐MEO: Predicting Ultra‐Relativistic Electrons Using Observations From GPS Satellites

Abstract Ultra‐relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two megaelectron‐volt (MeV) pose a major radiation threat to spaceborne electronics, and thus specifying those highly energetic electrons has a significant meaning to space weather communities. Here we report the latest progress in developing our predictive model for MeV electrons in the outer radiation belt. The new version, primarily driven by electron measurements made along medium‐Earth‐orbits (MEO), is called PREdictive MEV Electron (PreMevE)‐MEO model that nowcasts ultra‐relativistic electron flux distributions across the whole outer belt. Model inputs include >2 MeV electron fluxes observed in MEOs by a fleet of GPS satellites as well as electrons measured by one Los Alamos satellite in the geosynchronous orbit. We developed an innovative Sparse Multi‐Inputs Latent Ensemble NETwork (SmileNet) which combines convolutional neural networks with transformers, and we used long‐term in situ electron data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission to train, validate, optimize, and test the model. It is shown that PreMevE‐MEO can provide hourly nowcasts with high model performance efficiency and high correlation with observations. This prototype PreMevE‐MEO model demonstrates the feasibility of making high‐fidelity predictions driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure in MEO, thus has great potential of growing into an invaluable space weather operational warning tool.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of laser beam spatial profiles in a high-energy laser facility by use of deep learning

We adapt the significant advances achieved recently in the field of generative artificial intelligence/machine-learning to laser performance modeling in multipass, high-energy laser systems with application to high-shot-rate facilities relevant to inertial fusion energy. Advantages of neural-network architectures include rapid prediction capability, data-driven processing, and the possibility to implement such architectures within future low-latency, low-power consumption photonic networks. Four models were investigated that differed in their generator loss functions and utilized the U-Net encoder/decoder architecture with either a reconstruction loss alone or combined with an adversarial network loss. We achieved inference times of 1.3 ms for a 256 × 256 pixel near-field beam with errors in predicted energy of the order of 1% over most of the energy range. It is shown that prediction errors are significantly reduced by ensemble averaging the models with different weight initializations. These results suggest that including the temporal dimension in such models may provide accurate, real-time spatiotemporal predictions of laser performance in high-shot-rate laser systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

User's Manual for the FE/NETL Onshore CO 2 EOR Cost Model, Version 1

This user's manual describes the conceptual and mathematical basis for the FE/NETL Onshore CO 2 EOR Cost Model (a Fortran program). The model performs a cash flow analysis to estimate the cost of implementing CO 2 EOR using supercritical CO 2 by incorporating oil field performance outputs for a pattern from the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model (available on NETL's website along with its associated user's manuals under the Collection Name: FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model) and implementing patterns to develop an oil field for CO 2 EOR. The model calculates capital costs, operation and maintenance costs, and financing costs. The user’s manual also describes how to run the FE/NETL Onshore CO 2 EOR Cost Model, along with the model’s file structure, inputs and outputs. The FE/NETL Onshore CO 2 EOR Cost Model is available on NETL's website under the Collection Name: FE/NETL Onshore CO 2 EOR Cost Model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Recovering the Star Formation Histories of Recently Quenched Galaxies: The Impact of Model and Prior Choices

Accurate models of the star formation histories (SFHs) of recently quenched galaxies can provide constraints on when and how galaxies shut down their star formation. The recent development of nonparametric SFH models promises the flexibility required to make these measurements. However, model and prior choices significantly affect derived SFHs, particularly for post-starburst galaxies (PSBs), which have sharp changes in their recent SFH. In this paper, we create mock PSBs, then use the Prospector SED fitting software to test how well four different SFH models recover key properties. We find that a two-component parametric model performs well for our simple mock galaxies, but is sensitive to model mismatches. The fixed- and flexible-bin nonparametric models included in Prospector are able to rapidly quench a major burst of star formation, but systematically underestimate the post-burst age by up to 200 Myr. We develop a custom SFH model that allows for additional flexibility in the recent SFH. Our flexible nonparametric model is able to constrain post-burst ages with no significant offset and just ~90 Myr of scatter. Our results suggest that while standard nonparametric models are able to recover first-order quantities of the SFH (mass, SFR, average age), accurately recovering higher-order quantities (burst fraction, quenching time) requires careful consideration of model flexibility. These mock recovery tests are a critical part of future SFH studies. Finally, we show that our new, public SFH model is able to accurately recover the properties of mock star-forming and quiescent galaxies and is suitable for broader use in the SED fitting community. https://github.com/bd-j/prospector

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1979

METAPHOR (version 1): Users guide

General information concerning METAPHOR, an interactive software package to facilitate performability modeling and evaluation, is presented. Example systems are studied and their performabilities are calculated. Each available METAPHOR command and array generator is described. Complete METAPHOR sessions are included.

Furchtgott, D. G.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A PBL-radiation model for application to regional numerical weather prediction

Often in the short-range limited-area numerical weather prediction (NWP) of extratropical weather systems the effects of planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes are considered secondarily important. However, it may not be the case for the regional NWP of mesoscale convective systems over the arid and semi-arid highlands of the southwestern and south-central United States in late spring and summer. Over these dry regions, the PBL can grow quite high up into the lower middle troposphere (600 mb) due to very effective solar heating and hence a vigorous air-land thermal interaction can occur. The interaction representing a major heat source for regional dynamical systems can not be ignored. A one-dimensional PBL-radiation model was developed. The model PBL consists of a constant-flux surface layer superposed with a well-mixed (Ekman) layer. The vertical eddy mixing coefficients for heat and momentum in the surface layer are determined according to the surface similarity theory, while their vertical profiles in the Ekman layer are specified with a cubic polynomial. Prognostic equations are used for predicting the height of the nonneutral PBL. The atmospheric radiation is parameterized to define the surface heat source/sink for the growth and decay of the PBL. A series of real-data numerical experiments has been carried out to obtain a physical understanding how the model performs under various atmospheric and surface conditions. This one-dimensional model will eventually be incorporated into a mesoscale prediction system. The ultimate goal of this research is to improve the NWP of mesoscale convective storms over land.

Chang, Chia-Bo↗

NASA NTRS2003

Results of Evaluation of Solar Thermal Propulsion

The solar thermal propulsion evaluation reported here relied on prior research for all information on solar thermal propulsion technology and performance. Sources included personal contacts with experts in the field in addition to published reports and papers. Mission performance models were created based on this information in order to estimate performance and mass characteristics of solar thermal propulsion systems. Mission analysis was performed for a set of reference missions to assess the capabilities and benefits of solar thermal propulsion in comparison with alternative in-space propulsion systems such as chemical and electric propulsion. Mission analysis included estimation of delta V requirements as well as payload capabilities for a range of missions. Launch requirements and costs, and integration into launch vehicles, were also considered. The mission set included representative robotic scientific missions, and potential future NASA human missions beyond low Earth orbit. Commercial communications satellite delivery missions were also included, because if STP technology were selected for that application, frequent use is implied and this would help amortize costs for technology advancement and systems development. A C3 Topper mission was defined, calling for a relatively small STP. The application is to augment the launch energy (C3) available from launch vehicles with their built-in upper stages. Payload masses were obtained from references where available. The communications satellite masses represent the range of payload capabilities for the Delta IV Medium and/or Atlas launch vehicle family. Results indicated that STP could improve payload capability over current systems, but that this advantage cannot be realized except in a few cases because of payload fairing volume limitations on current launch vehicles. It was also found that acquiring a more capable (existing) launch vehicle, rather than adding an STP stage, is the most economical in most cases.

Woodcock, Gordon↗

NASA NTRS2017

Point-Mass Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Using a Hierarchical, Highly-Adaptable Software Design

A highly adaptable and extensible method for predicting four-dimensional trajectories of civil aircraft has been developed. This method, Behavior-Based Trajectory Prediction, is based on taxonomic concepts developed for the description and comparison of trajectory prediction software. A hierarchical approach to the "behavioral" layer of a point-mass model of aircraft flight, a clear separation between the "behavioral" and "mathematical" layers of the model, and an abstraction of the methods of integrating differential equations in the "mathematical" layer have been demonstrated to support aircraft models of different types (in particular, turbojet vs. turboprop aircraft) using performance models at different levels of detail and in different formats, and promise to be easily extensible to other aircraft types and sources of data. The resulting trajectories predict location, altitude, lateral and vertical speeds, and fuel consumption along the flight path of the subject aircraft accurately and quickly, accounting for local conditions of wind and outside air temperature. The Behavior-Based Trajectory Prediction concept was implemented in NASA's Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) flight-optimizing cockpit software application.

Karr, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Magnetotail Boundary Crossings at Lunar Distances: ARTEMIS Observations

We compare results from a preliminary analysis of two years of ARTEMIS magnetopause boundary crossings at lunar distances with available empirical models. We remove the effects of variable solar wind flow directions and aberration angles to study the magnetotail cross-section as a function of solar wind conditions. The average magnetopause distance from the central axis is 26 RE, but this distance ranges from 10 RE for high solar wind dynamic pressures and strong northward IMF orientations to 39 RE for low solar wind dynamic pressures and weak southward IMF orientations compared to the nominal solar wind conditions. The time-independent Howe and Binsack (1972) model describes the average location of the crossings very well. For high solar wind dynamic pressures, the Lu et al., (2011) model performs best, while for low pressures the Petrinec and Russell (1996) model gives the closest prediction. As predicted by theory and seen in past studies, the magnetotail cross-section is suggestive of prolate during intervals of strong IMF By, but oblate during intervals of strong IMF Bz. Any asymmetric variation of the tail boundary with respect to the sign of IMF By was not observed. The decreasing size of boundary with the increasing dynamic pressure was found when dynamic pressures are smaller than 2nPa. Although the scatter is larger, the tail size for pressures larger than 2nPa suggests a constant radius. The tail boundary size decreases as the strength of IMF Bz increases regardless of its polarity. However, it was also observed that an even stronger southward IMF Bz can cause larger magnetopause size in the presence of large dynamic pressures.

Magnetotail↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Long-Short Term Memory Models to Predict Solar Active Regions Emergence

We train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models that predict the formation of active regions (ARs), the main source of eruptive solar activity. Using the Doppler shift velocity, the continuum intensity and the magnetic field full-disk maps from SDO/HMI we have created time-series datasets of acoustic power and magnetic flux which are used to train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models on predicting decreases in continuum intensity 12 hours in advance. Testing of the models' performance was done on data from 5 ARs, unseen from the model during training. The model predicted the emergence of AR11726, AR13165 and AR13179, 10, 29 and 5 hours in advance, and variations of this model achieved average RMSE values of 0.11 for both active and quiet parts of the solar disc, showing the ability of the model to capture acoustic power anomalies and predict continuum intensity variations. This work sets the foundations for the very first ML-aided prediction of solar ARs.

SMD↗

NASA NTRS2017

Lightweight ZERODUR: Validation of Mirror Performance and Mirror Modeling Predictions

Upcoming spaceborne missions, both moderate and large in scale, require extreme dimensional stability while relying both upon established lightweight mirror materials, and also upon accurate modeling methods to predict performance under varying boundary conditions. We describe tests, recently performed at NASA's XRCF chambers and laboratories in Huntsville Alabama, during which a 1.2 m diameter, f/1.2988% lightweighted SCHOTT lightweighted ZERODUR(TradeMark) mirror was tested for thermal stability under static loads in steps down to 230K. Test results are compared to model predictions, based upon recently published data on ZERODUR(TradeMark). In addition to monitoring the mirror surface for thermal perturbations in XRCF Thermal Vacuum tests, static load gravity deformations have been measured and compared to model predictions. Also the Modal Response(dynamic disturbance) was measured and compared to model. We will discuss the fabrication approach and optomechanical design of the ZERODUR(TradeMark) mirror substrate by SCHOTT, its optical preparation for test by Arizona Optical Systems (AOS). Summarize the outcome of NASA's XRCF tests and model validations

technology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning models of intermittent operation of RO wellhead water treatment for salinity reduction and nitrate removal

Machine learning models were developed for intermittent multi-mode operation of a wellhead reverse osmosis water purification and desalination system to predict salt passage, nitrate passage, and permeate flux. The models, based on long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture, included an attention mechanism to increase model performance in proximity of the regulatory limit for nitrate. Training and testing of the models for the Startup, Production, Shutdown and Flushing operational modes were based on operational data (consisting of 22 process variables per data sample) acquired every 2–5 s over a six-month period. The significant sets of model input attributes for the different operational modes were assessed via Spearman ranking correlation, Self-Organizing Map (SOM) analysis and feed forward feature selection (FFFS). Although the variability of nitrate passage, salt passage and permeate flux was significant over the four operational modes, prediction performance for the three outcomes were with R2 and Average Absolute Relative Error (AARE) of 0.78–0.95 and 2.96–6.16 %, respectively. Model updates post membrane elements replacement demonstrated similar levels of prediction accuracy. The study results suggest that there is merit in exploring the utility of multi-mode models for sensor fault detection, data imputation, and for potential use in model-predictive control.

Intermittent RO operation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Universal Cryogenic Flow Boiling Correlations in Thermal Desktop for Liquid Hydrogen

Developing accurate models of two-phase cryogenic flow will reduce risk and reduce margins for future NASA vehicles such as the Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) system. Currently there is a need for more accurate, direct cryogenic data-anchored models for various boiling and two-phase phenomena. The focus of the current work is on modeling steady state cryogenic flow boiling in the transfer line that connects a propellant storage tank to an engine or customer receiver tank. This paper presents Thermal Desktop model validation results against several historical liquid hydrogen (LH2) heated tube experiments that cover a wide range of inlet conditions, mass flux, and heat flux. New universal cryogenic flow boiling correlations were recently developed and anchored to the largest cryogenic flow boiling database assembled in the world to-date. The new universal correlations are patched together and implemented into Thermal Desktop to compare model performance against the built-in flow boiling correlations. Axial wall temperature predictions as a function of preponderant parameters like heat flux, mass flux, inlet pressure, inlet quality, tube diameter, etc. using the two sets of flow boiling correlations are compared against the experimental data. Overall, the Thermal Desktop model with the new universal cryogenic flow boiling correlations demonstrates an improvement in predictive performance over the Thermal Desktop model using built-in correlations for both wall temperature and location of critical heat flux compared to the data for LH2 flow boiling in heated tubes.

Cryogenic Propellant Transfer↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Universal Cryogenic Flow Boiling Correlations in Thermal Desktop for Liquid Hydrogen

cryogenic propellant transfer↗

DOE OSTI2026

Battery Performance and Cost Model (BatPaC) Version 6.0

SF-26-016 The Battery Performance and Cost model (BatPaC) is a calculation method based on Microsoft Excel spreadsheets that has been developed at Argonne for estimating the performance and manufacturing cost of lithium-ion batteries for electric-drive vehicles including hybrid-electrics (HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and pure electrics. BatPaC was first developed in 2007, was subsequently peer reviewed, and it has served Argonne researchers and the greater battery community in studying the impact of material properties on performance at the pack level. BatPaC has been updated and re-released multiple times since its original public release in 2011. This current version is BatPaC 6.0, which contains additional functionality needed to handle advances in automotive batteries, like the use of lithium metal and silicon anodes and the need to accommodate cell expansion and apply high levels of pressure.

KNEHR, KEVIN [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗

NASA NTRS2000

Performance Evaluation of the NASA/KSC Transmission System

NASA-KSC currently uses three bridged 100-Mbps FDDI segments as its backbone for data traffic. The FDDI Transmission System (FTXS) connects the KSC industrial area, KSC launch complex 39 area, and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The report presents a performance modeling study of the FTXS and the proposed ATM Transmission System (ATXS). The focus of the study is on performance of MPEG video transmission on these networks. Commercial modeling tools - the CACI Predictor and Comnet tools - were used. In addition, custom software tools were developed to characterize conversation pairs in Sniffer trace (capture) files to use as input to these tools. A baseline study of both non-launch and launch day data traffic on the FTXS is presented. MPEG-1 and MPEG-2 video traffic was characterized and the shaping of it evaluated. It is shown that the characteristics of a video stream has a direct effect on its performance in a network. It is also shown that shaping of video streams is necessary to prevent overflow losses and resulting poor video quality. The developed models can be used to predict when the existing FTXS will 'run out of room' and for optimizing the parameters of ATM links used for transmission of MPEG video. Future work with these models can provide useful input and validation to set-top box projects within the Advanced Networks Development group in NASA-KSC Development Engineering.

Christensen, Kenneth J.↗