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Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty Model Identification from Flight Data

Uncertainty modeling is a critical element in the estimation of robust stability margins for stability boundary prediction and robust flight control system development. There has been a serious deficiency to date in aeroservoelastic data analysis with attention to uncertainty modeling. Uncertainty can be estimated from flight data using both parametric and nonparametric identification techniques. The model validation problem addressed in this paper is to identify aeroservoelastic models with associated uncertainty structures from a limited amount of controlled excitation inputs over an extensive flight envelope. The challenge to this problem is to update analytical models from flight data estimates while also deriving non-conservative uncertainty descriptions consistent with the flight data. Multisine control surface command inputs and control system feedbacks are used as signals in a wavelet-based modal parameter estimation procedure for model updates. Transfer function estimates are incorporated in a robust minimax estimation scheme to get input-output parameters and error bounds consistent with the data and model structure. Uncertainty estimates derived from the data in this manner provide an appropriate and relevant representation for model development and robust stability analysis. This model-plus-uncertainty identification procedure is applied to aeroservoelastic flight data from the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center F-18 Systems Research Aircraft.

Brenner, Martin J.↗

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering process parameters are elicited from the engineer/expert on the project and are based on that expert's technical knowledge. These are converted by a parametric cost model into a cost estimate. The method discussed makes no assumptions about the distribution underlying the distribution of possible costs, and is not tied to the analysis of previous projects, except through the expert calibrations performed by the parametric cost analyst.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

Application of Proliferation Resistance Optimization (PRO-X) Methodology to a Generic Research Reactor

The Proliferation Resistance Optimization Program (PRO-X) has been established by the NNSA to provide a framework for evaluating and integrating proliferation resistance into nuclear reactor system (core, fuel, and auxiliary facilities) designs that also maintain the safety and peaceful use missions of those systems. The research reactor (PRO-RR) area is the component of PRO-X that supports the program objectives by applying state-of-the-art analysis methods to research reactor systems. This report details the results of using a defined set of analytical tools to evaluate the neutronics, thermal hydraulics and proliferation risk characteristics of a set of parametric cores based on a generic 10 MW materials test reactor that uses a plate-type low enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. The analysis shows that by suitable adjustment of the core size, reflector configuration and power level, mission performance and safety margins can be maintained or improved while reducing the potential for production of special nuclear material.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

An improvement in SAR image interpretability provided by post-correlation signal processing

A presentation on the basis of subjective analysis of computer-generated SAR imagery depicts the improvement in interpretability obtained by post-correlation signal processing. A parametric study was conducted to determine the improvement in interpretability obtained by the application of signal weighting functions on the post-processed returns. The results suggest that a marked improvement in interpretability results from symmetrizing the exponential distribution of the fading signal. Preliminary analysis indicates that signal weighting improves the contrast ratio between the mean value of adjacent homogeneous regions in a SAR scene.

Matthews, N. D.↗

SLS Integrated Modal Test Uncertainty Quantification using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Uncertainty in structural loading during launch is a significant concern in the development of spacecraft and launch vehicles. Small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interaction can result in significant variation in system loads. In many cases involving large aerospace systems it is difficult, not economical, or impossible to perform a system modal test. However, it is still vital to obtain test results that can be compared with analytical predictions to validate models. Instead, the “Building Block Approach” is used in which system components are tested individually. Component models are correlated and updated to agree as best they can with test results. The Space Launch System consists of a number of components that are assembled into a launch vehicle. Finite element models of the components are developed, reduced to Hurty/Craig-Bampton models and assembled to represent different phases of flight. The only opportunity to obtain modal test data from an assembled Space Launch System will be during the Integrated Modal Test. There is always uncertainty in every model, which flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty Quantification is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. For the Space Launch System, model uncertainty is at the Hurty/Craig-Bampton component level. Uncertainty in the Hurty/Craig-Bampton components is quantified using the hybrid parametric variation approach that combines parametric and nonparametric uncertainty. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. This type of uncertainty cannot be represented by variations infinite element model input parameters and thus cannot be included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory. The hybrid parametric variation method requires the selection of dispersion values for the Hurty/Craig-Bampton fixed-interface eigenvalues, and the Hurty/Craig-Bampton stiffness matrices. Component test/analysis frequency error is used to identify the fixed-interface eigenvalue dispersions, while test/analysis cross-orthogonality is used to identify stiffness dispersion values. The hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach is applied to the Space Launch System Integrated Modal Test configuration. Monte Carlo analysis is performed, and statistics are determined for modal correlation metrics, frequency response from Integrated Modal Test shakers to selected accelerometers, as well as other metrics for determining how well target modes are excited and identified. If the predicted uncertainty envelopes future Integrated Modal Test results, then there will be increased confidence in the utility of the component-based hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

Future space transportation systems analysis study. Phase 1: Technical report, appendices

The transportation mass requirements developed for each mission and transportation mode were based on vehicle systems sized to fit the exact needs of each mission (i.e. rubber vehicles). The parametric data used to derive the mass requirements for each mission and transportation mode are presented to enable accommodation of possible changes in mode options or payload definitions. The vehicle sizing and functional requirements used to derive the parametric data will form the basis for conceptual configurations of the transportation elements in a later phase of study. An investigation of the weight growth approach to future space transportation systems analysis is presented. Parameters which affect weight growth, past weight histories, and the current state of future space-mission design are discussed. Weight growth factors of from 10 percent to 41 percent were derived for various missions or vehicles.

Source record↗

Geospatial analysis of freight accessibility and job attraction: The role of interstate ramps, airports, ports, and rail

The number of jobs within an industry is significantly influenced by geographical location, with transportation infrastructure playing a key role. While previous research has largely focused on how access to jobs affects employment, less attention has been given to how transportation infrastructure impacts business operations and job attraction. Here, this study addresses this gap by examining how the ease of transporting products to key transportation facilities affects job numbers in freight-intensive industries. Using job data from the Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics dataset at the Census Tract level, we applied a non-parametric model to assess the impact of proximity to interstate ramps, rail intermodals, ports, and airports. Our analysis revealed that closer transportation infrastructure generally has a greater impact on employment. Specifically, interstate ramps are crucial for attracting jobs, particularly in rural areas, while airport proximity is essential for industries dealing with high-value, time-sensitive goods, as seen notably in Massachusetts. The importance of transportation facilities varies considerably across states and industries. The findings and method in this study can be used by transportation agencies for freight planning.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Extraction of the Collins-Soper Kernel from a Joint Analysis of Experimental and Lattice Data

We present a first joint extraction of the Collins-Soper kernel (CSK) combining experimental and lattice QCD data in the context of an analysis of transverse-momentum-dependent distributions (TMDs). Based on a neural-network parametrization, we perform a Bayesian reweighting of an existing fit of TMDs using lattice data, as well as a joint TMD fit to lattice and experimental data. We consistently find that the inclusion of lattice information shifts the central value of the CSK by approximately 10% and reduces its uncertainty by 40%–50%, highlighting the potential of lattice inputs to improve TMD extractions.

Avkhadiev, Artur [Massachusetts Inst. of Technolog↗

Quick calculation method for fluid flow through duct systems

Conditions for subsonic compressible flow through duct systems are quickly and easily calculated using compact series of curves showing dimensionless parametric functions of Mach number and specific heat ratio. Method is directly applicable to analysis and design of compressible flow systems in industrial fields or processes.

Scott, L. R., Jr.↗

Transonic flow past lifting wings.

Work conducted by Norstrud (1971) has been extended to lifting flows with the inclusion of embedded continuous supercritical regions. The approach taken follows some fundamental steps proposed for two-dimensional flows by Oswatitsch (1950). The governing integral equation is replaced by a system of nonlinear algebraic equations. The method of parametric differentiation is applied to the solution of this system of equations. The analytical analysis is discussed together with a numerical analysis in the case of a wing configuration with arbitrary thickness distribution.

Norstrud, H.↗

Aircraft digital control design methods

Investigations were conducted in two main areas: the first area is control system design, and the goals were to define the limits of 'digitized S-Plane design techniques' vs. sample rate, to show the results of a 'direct digital design technique', and to compare the two methods; the second area was to evaluate the roughness of autopilot designs parametrically versus sample rate. Goals of the first area were addressed by (1) an analysis of a 2nd order example using both design methods, (2) a linear analysis of the complete 737 aircraft with an autoland obtained using the digitized S-plane technique, (3) linear analysis of a high frequency 737 approximation with the autoland from a direct digital design technique, and (4) development of a simulation for evaluation of the autopilots with disturbances and nonlinearities included. Roughness evaluation was studied by defining an experiment to be carried out on the Langley motion simulator and coordinated with analysis at Stanford.

Tashker, M. G.↗

A parametric study of the value of hydrological information for irrigation and hydropower management of the Feather River

A case study analysis is presented of the relationships between improvements in the accuracy, frequency, and timeliness of information used in making hydrological forecasts and economic benefits in the areas of hydropower and irrigation. The area chosen for the case study is the Oroville Dam and Reservoir. Emphasis is placed on the use of timely and accurate mapping of the aerial extent of snow in the basin by earth resources survey systems such as LANDSAT. The subject of benefits resulting from improved runoff forecasts is treated in a generalized way without specifying the source of the improvements.

Wetzler, E.↗

On the propagation of long waves in acoustically treated, curved ducts

A two dimensional study is presented on the behavior of long waves in lined, curved ducts. The analysis includes a comparison between the propagation in curved and straight lined ducts. A parametric study was conducted over a range of wall admittance and duct wall separation. The complex eigenvalues of the characteristic equation, which in the case of a curved duct are also the angular wavenumbers, were obtained by successive approximations.

Rostafinski, W.↗

On the propagation of long waves in acoustically treated, curved ducts

A two-dimensional, detailed study is presented on the behavior of long waves in lined, curved ducts. The analysis includes a comparison between the propagation in curved and straight lined ducts. A parametric study was conducted over a range of wall admittance and duct wall separation. The complex eigenvalues of the characteristic equation, which in the case of a curved duct are also the angular wavenumbers, have been obtained by successive approximations.

Rostafinski, W.↗

Coupled transient response of tiles bonded elastically to a finite flexible plate

Presented are several methods to study a system of tiles bonded elastically to a finite flexible plate responding to an impulse. First, a one-dimensional (1-D) approximation to the system is constructed using Timoshenko beam theory and transfer matrices. This simulates a strip one tile wide. Modal analysis determines the transient response to an impulse of short duration. Also presented are parametric studies of the effect of bond stiffness and the effect of stiffening from inplane stresses produced by large out-of-plane deflections. A two-dimensional (2-D) model is constructed from the eigenfunctions of the 1-D model in a Galerkin method using pairwise products of the 1-D modes as trial functions. Comparison of the two models establishes a factor applied to peak impulse pressure for results to agree.

El-Raheb, M.↗

Neural network representation and learning of mappings and their derivatives

Discussed here are recent theorems proving that artificial neural networks are capable of approximating an arbitrary mapping and its derivatives as accurately as desired. This fact forms the basis for further results establishing the learnability of the desired approximations, using results from non-parametric statistics. These results have potential applications in robotics, chaotic dynamics, control, and sensitivity analysis. An example involving learning the transfer function and its derivatives for a chaotic map is discussed.

White, Halbert↗

Parametric uncertainty modeling for application to robust control

Viewgraphs and a paper on parametric uncertainty modeling for application to robust control are included. Advanced robust control system analysis and design is based on the availability of an uncertainty description which separates the uncertain system elements from the nominal system. Although this modeling structure is relatively straightforward to obtain for multiple unstructured uncertainties modeled throughout the system, it is difficult to formulate for many problems involving real parameter variations. Furthermore, it is difficult to ensure that the uncertainty model is formulated such that the dimension of the resulting model is minimal. A procedure for obtaining an uncertainty model for real uncertain parameter problems in which the uncertain parameters can be represented in a multilinear form is presented. Furthermore, the procedure is formulated such that the resulting uncertainty model is minimal (or near minimal) relative to a given state space realization of the system. The approach is demonstrated for a multivariable third-order example problem having four uncertain parameters.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

Coupled 2-dimensional cascade theory for noise and unsteady aerodynamics of blade row interaction in turbofans. Volume 1: Theory development and parametric studies

Typical analytical models for interaction between rotor and stator in a turbofan analyze the effect of wakes from the rotor impinging on the stator, producing unsteady loading, and thereby generating noise. Reflection/transmission characteristics of the rotor are sometimes added in a separate calculation. In those models, there is a one-to-one relationship between wake harmonics and noise harmonics; that is, the BPF (blade passing frequency) wake harmonic causes only the BPF noise harmonic, etc. This report presents a more complete model in which flow tangency boundary conditions are satisfied on two cascades in relative motion for several harmonics simultaneously. By an extension of S.N. Smith's code for two dimensional flat plate cascades, the noise generation/frequency scattering/blade row reflection problem is solved in a single matrix inversion. It is found that the BPF harmonic excitation of the stator scatters considerable energy in the higher BPF harmonics due to relative motion between the blade rows. Furthermore, when swirl between the rotor and stator is modeled, a 'mode trapping' effect occurs which explains observations on fans operating at rotational speeds below BFP cuton: the BPF mode amplifies between blade rows by multiple reflections but cannot escape to the inlet and exit ducts. However, energy scattered into higher harmonics does propagate and dominates the spectrum at two and three times BPF. This report presents the complete derivation of the theory, comparison with a previous (more limited) coupled rotor/stator interaction theory due to Kaji and Okazaki, exploration of the mode trapping phenomenon, and parametric studies showing the effects of vane/blade ratio and rotor/stator interaction. For generality, the analysis applies to stages where the rotor is either upstream or downstream of the stator and to counter rotation stages. The theory has been coded in a FORTRAN program called CUP2D, documented in Volume 2 of this report. It is concluded that the new features of this analysis - unsteady coupling, frequency scattering, and flow turning between rotor and stator - have a profound effect on noise generation caused by rotor/stator interaction. Treating rotors and stators as isolated cascades is not adequate for noise analysis and prediction.

Hanson, Donald B.↗