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Enhance Low Level Temperature and Moisture Profiles Through Combining NUCAPS, ABI Observations, and RTMA Analysis

Thermodynamic information from low levels in the atmosphere is crucial for operational weather forecasts and meteorological researchers. The NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) sounding products have been proven beneficial to fill the data gap between synoptic radiosonde observations (RAOBs). However, compared with the upper troposphere, the accuracy of NUCAPS soundings in the low levels still needs improvement. In this study, a deep neural network (DNN) is applied to fuse multiple data sources to enhance the NUCAPS temperature and moisture profiles in the lower atmosphere. The network is developed by combining satellite observations, including NUCAPS sounding retrievals and high resolution geostationary satellite observations from the Advanced Baseline Imager, and surface analysis from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) as inputs, while collocated soundings from ECMWF re-analysis version 5 are used as the benchmark for the training. The performance of the model is evaluated by using the independent testing data set, data from a different year, as well as collocated RAOBs, showing improvement to the temperature and moisture profiles by reducing the root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) by more than 30% in the lower atmosphere (from 700 hPa to surface) in both clear sky and partially cloudy conditions. A convective event from June 18, 2017 is presented to illustrate the application of the enhanced low level soundings on high impact weather events. The enhanced soundings from fused data capture the large surface-based convective available potential energy structures in the preconvection environment, which is very useful for severe storm nowcasting and forecasting applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

From Failure to Insight: Analyzing Disk Breakdowns in Large-Scale HPC Environments

Disk failure data provides valuable insights for preventing failures, enhancing storage robustness, guiding system design and deployment, and ensuring reliable operations at data centers. This paper introduces two disk failure datasets collected from large-scale HPC production environments over the past five years, comprising over 5,000 failure records from more than 40,000 disks. We analyzed these datasets across multiple dimensions, including temporal, spatial, and relational trends, and performed a comprehensive reliability assessment. Our analysis yielded numerous observations and insights that influence various operational aspects of HPC storage systems. We believe this study offers a holistic understanding of disk failure trends likely to interest the HPC storage community.

George, Anjus↗

A Performance Portable, Fully Implicit Landau Collision Operator with Batched Linear Solvers

Modern accelerators use hierarchical parallel programming models that enable massive multithreading within a processing element (PE), with multiple PEs per device driven by traditional processes. Batching is a technique for exposing PE-level parallelism in algorithms that have traditionally run on MPI processes or multiple threads within a single process. Opportunities for batching arise in, for example, kinetic discretizations of magnetized plasmas where collisions are advanced in velocity space at each spatial point independently. This paper builds on previous work on a high-performance, fully nonlinear, Landau collision operator by batching the linear solver, as well as batching the spatial point problems and adding new support for multiple grids for multiscale, multispecies problems. An anisotropic relaxation verification test that agrees well with previously published results and analytical models is presented. The performance results from NVIDIA A100 and AMD MI250X nodes are presented with hardware utilization analysis for each architecture. Finally, the entire implicit Landau operator time advance is implemented in Kokkos for performance portability, running entirely on the device and is available in the PETSc numerical library.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Stability and Activity of Cobalt Antimonate for Oxygen Reduction in Strong Acid

Guided by computational Pourbaix screening and high-throughput experiments aimed at the development of precious-metal-free fuel cells, we investigate rutile CoSb 2 O 6 as an electrocatalyst for oxygen reduction in 1 M sulfuric acid. Following 4 h of catalyst conditioning at 0.7 V vs RHE, operation at this potential for 20 h yielded an average current density of –0.17 mA cm –2 with corrosion at a rate of 0.04 nm hour –1 that is stoichiometric with catalyst composition. Surface Pourbaix analysis of the (111) surface identified partial H coverage under operating conditions. The Sb active site has an HO* binding free energy of 0.49 eV, which is near the peak of the kinetic 4e – ORR volcano for transition-metal oxides in acidic conditions. Furthermore, the experimental demonstration of operational stability and computational identification of a reaction pathway with favorable energetics place rutile CoSb 2 O 6 among the most promising precious-metal-free electrocatalysts for oxygen reduction in acidic media.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Thermal Analysis of Thermal Shield for PIP-II SSR1 Cryomodule

Fermilab's PIP-II project plans to enhance the onsite accelerator into the world's most intense neutrino beam, bringing Fermilab into the next generation of particle accelerators. The five different types of cryomodules are vital parts of the PIP-II project and each requires numerous engineering analyses to prove operation. For example, the thermal shield of the Single Spoke Resonator-1 (SSR1) cryomodule required a thermal analysis to ensure the design was operating as intended before fabrication commenced. The thermal shield is cooled by the supercritical helium inside of the extrusion and must remain between 45 and 80 Kelvin. The main purpose of the thermal shield is to intercept different high heat loads and thermal radiation and prevent them from reaching the more sensitive internal components. Finite Element Analysis (FEM) was used to determine temperature estimates of the thermal shield based on the location of a variety of heat sources. Results determined temperatures exceeding the design limit around the crucial component of the current leads. Due to superconducting properties, the areas around the current leads cannot surpass 68 Kelvin. Different solutions to the critical high-temperature areas will be proposed. These solutions range from changing the properties of the helium flow to designing an attachment for the thermal shield. Each proposition works as a viable solution, however, each proposition also has its own set of advantages and disadvantages that are described for further design consideration.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 32, No. 1, January-March 1991]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 The Safety Review and Approval Process for Space Nuclear Power Sources, G. L. Bennett; 19 Report on the American Nuclear Society International Topical Meeting: "The Safety, Status, and Future of Non-Commercial Reactors and Irradiation Facilities", E. G. Silver; 35 Book Review: Fission Product Transport Processes in Reactor Accidents, Proceedings to the International Centre tor Heat and Mass Processes T. S. Kress; 38 Fast Reactor Technology in the 1990s: A Summary of the 1990 International Fast Reactor Safety Meeting, A. E. Levin; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 56 Effects of Chemical Phenomena on LWR Severe Accident Fission Product Behavior, A. P. Malinauskas and T. S. Kress; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 65 Technical Note: Safety Parameter Display Systems—10 Years Later, R. J. Eckenrode; 68 Potential Application of Neural Networks to the Operation of Nuclear Power Plants, R. E. Uhrig; DESIGN FEATURES: 80 Twenty-First DOE/NRC Nuclear Air-Cleaning Conference, R. R. Bellamy, D. W. Moeller, and M. W. First; 91 Impact of an Apparent Radiation Embrittlement Rate on the Life Expectancy of PWR Vessel Supports, R. D. Cheverton, G. C. Robinson, W. E. Pennell, and R. K. Nanstad; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 103 Technical Note: The Impact of Offsite Factors on the Safety Performance of Small Nuclear Power Plants, Yu. D. Baranaev and A. N. Viktorov; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 109 Activities Related to Waste Management, Compiled by E. G. Silver; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 118 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; 121 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 123 Operating U.S. Power Reactors, Compiled by E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 140 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by E. G. Silver; 150 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 155 Status of Power-Reactor Licensing Activities, Compiled by E. G. Silver; 157 Proposed Rule Changes as of Sept. 30, 1990; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 79 MIT Offers Summer Program on Nuclear Power Reactor Safety; 108 Harvard School of Public Health Offers Several Short Courses; 139 Short Course and Workshop on Nuclear Criticality Safety at University of New Mexico; 160 SCK/CEN Announces Training Course on Emergency Planning and Response; 161 The Authors; 164 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 31

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Use of Machine Learning on PMU Data for Transmission System Fault Analysis

Synchrophasor technology has been used for monitoring, control, and protection of bulk power system for over 10 years. Deployment of phasor measurement units (PMUs) in the USA power system has surpassed 3000 units installed in the transmission substations as stand-alone intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) or as a software add-on to other devices such as digital protective relays (DPRs) or digital fault recorders (DFRs). By now, thousands of terabytes of PMU data may have been captured and stored by various transmission system operators (TSOs) and independent system operators (ISOs). This creates an opportunity to deploy advanced machine learning (ML) techniques to detect and classify faults recorded by PMUs automatically to be used by the system operators for rapid, critical decision-making when manual analysis of the past or unfolding events is not feasible. In this paper we offer a brief background on how the automated fault analysis may be done using DPR and/or DFR data, and compare some of the legacy approaches to the new ML approaches in the context of the system-wide PMU recordings. We then offer insights from developing practical ML solutions that have been applied on field recordings captured by close to 450 PMUs from all three US interconnections (Western, Eastern and ERCOT) over two years (2016-2017). We identify and illustrate ML challenges we addressed: inaccurate data, data with scarce and temporally imprecise fault labels, data recorded by PMUs sparsely located at substations resulting in the fault records taken afar from the ends of the faulted lines, data containing only positive sequence values, and data taken at different voltage levels. We then illustrate the ML model results for fault analysis under different application scenarios. The novelty of this study is not only in the design, implementation, and performance analysis of the ML algorithms, but also in the use of advanced fault modelling and simulation approaches to improve the training results when developing supervised ML models for fault detection and classification. Extensive simulations of faults were conducted on a 14-bus power system to create a training dataset with over 1400 accurately labelled faults. This dataset was applied to enhance the accuracy of fault detection and classification of machine learning-based models trained with small number of labelled faults in large datasets recorded in the grid interconnections ranging from 5,000 to 70,000 buses.

Synchrophasors, Machine Learning, Fault Analysis, ↗

Model validation and selection in metabolic flux analysis and flux balance analysis

13C-Metabolic Flux Analysis (13C-MFA) and Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) are widely used to investigate the operation of biochemical networks in both biological and biotechnological research. Both methods use metabolic reaction network models of metabolism operating at steady state so that reaction rates (fluxes) and the levels of metabolic intermediates are constrained to be invariant. They provide estimated (MFA) or predicted (FBA) values of the fluxes through the network in vivo, which cannot be measured directly. These fluxes can shed light on basic biology and have been successfully used to inform metabolic engineering strategies. Several approaches have been taken to test the reliability of estimates and predictions from constraint-based methods and to compare alternative model architectures. Despite advances in other areas of the statistical evaluation of metabolic models, such as the quantification of flux estimate uncertainty, validation and model selection methods have been underappreciated and underexplored. We review the history and state-of-the-art in constraint-based metabolic model validation and model selection. Applications and limitations of the χ 2 -test of goodness-of-fit, the most widely used quantitative validation and selection approach in 13C-MFA, are discussed, and complementary and alternative forms of validation and selection are proposed. A combined model validation and selection framework for 13C-MFA incorporating metabolite pool size information that leverages new developments in the field is presented and advocated for. Finally, we discuss how adopting robust validation and selection procedures can enhance confidence in constraint-based modeling as a whole and ultimately facilitate more widespread use of FBA in biotechnology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

SMART Task 6: Evaluation of the Costs of Geologic CO2 Storage for the Illinois Basin Decatur Project Site Using the NRAP/SMART Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) Model

This is a presentation featuring an analysis related to SMART Task 6 in which CO2 storage costs are presented. The National Energy Technology Laboratory has developed the NRAP/SMART Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model to provide quantitative cost-based insights to support developers planning CO2 injection and storage projects. TALES calculates the revenues, costs, and financial performance of candidate CO2 saline storage project based on site-specific activity costs and financial parameters. TALES is being integrated as a module pertaining to storage cost as part of the broader SMART Visualization and Decision Support Platform (SVDSP). In this study, the TALES model was applied using real activity cost data associated with the development and operations at the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) CO2 storage project site. Scenario analysis was implemented in which crucial operational and cost attributes were varied and the associated cost implications observed. Key results data and project cost summary metrics like first-year breakeven price of CO2 ($/tonne) and net present value (NPV) are presented in similar fashion to how they will appear in the SVDSP.

Vikara, Derek↗

Selecting and Implementing Resilience Metrics in Existing Energy Sector Models [Slides]

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes - including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences - based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Adapting Existing Energy Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes—including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences—based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Revealing power, energy and thermal dynamics of a 200PF pre-exascale supercomputer

As we approach the exascale computing era, the focused understanding of power consumption and its overall constraint on HPC architectures and applications are becoming increasingly paramount. Summit, located at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF), is one of the fastest and largest pre-exascale platforms in operation today. This paper provides a first-order examination and analysis of power consumption at the component-level, node-level, and system-level, from all 4,626 Summit compute nodes, each with over 100 metrics at 1Hz frequency over the entire year of 2020. We also investigate the power characteristics and energy efficiency of over 840k Summit jobs and 250k GPU failure logs for further operational insights. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic analysis of power data of HPC system at this scale.

Shin, Woong↗

Analysis of Tank 38h (HTF-38-23-19, -20) and Tank 43H (HTF-43-23-21, -22) Samples for Support of the Enrichment Control and Corrosion Control Programs

SRNL analyzed samples from Tank 38H and Tank 43H to support ECP and CCP. The results indicate the concentrations of most soluble species in the Tank 38H surface sample decreased significantly from the previous surface sample. The Tank 38H sub-surface sample shows changes in concentration for soluble species in the solution with some increasing and some decreasing. The current Thank 38H sub-surface sample contains visible sludge solids similar to the previous sample, i.e., less than 1%, based on visual appearance. The significant differences in the concentrations of major components between the Tank 38H surface and sub-surface samples indicate significant stratification of solution species between these two locations within the tank. Savannah River Mission Completion personnel indicate that ~ 150,000 gallons of Tank 22 supernate were received in Tank 38H since its last analysis during which time the 2H evaporator was not operated, so the observed stratification is expected. The Tank 43H surface and sub-surface samples are similar in composition to the previous samples. The similar solution compositions measured in the Tank 43H surface and sub-surface samples indicate a minimal stratification within the tank. The total uranium and plutonium in the current Tank 38H surface sample remains similar to the previous analysis. The Tank 38H sub-surface sample shows an increase in uranium and plutonium concentrations compared to the previous sample likely because of an increase in sludge solids in the current sample. The total uranium concentration in the Tank 43H surface sample is similar to the previous sample results while the plutonium in the Tank 43H sub-surface sample increased relative to the previous analysis. The sum of the major cations versus the sum of the major anions shows a difference of <10% for both samples from Tank 38H sub-surface sample (174 mg/L) increased compared with the previous sample. The Tank 38H surface sample silicon concentrations (27.5 mg/L) is one-half of the previous sample results. The Tank 43H surface sample silicon concentrations compared to the previous sample results indicate Si in the concentration range of 60 to 83 mg/L. Thus, these current samples analyzed from Tanks 38H and 43H show overall silicon concentrations ranging from 27.5 to 174 mg/L.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

SCALE 6.3 Validation: Reactor Physics

This study was performed to validate the SCALE/Polaris v6.3.0–PARCS v3.4.2 code procedure with the ENDF/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-group library for light-water reactor analysis by comparing the simulated results with the measured data for critical experiments and operating light-water reactors. Uncertainties of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code procedure for light-water reactor physics analysis were evaluated in the validation for key nuclear parameters such as reactivity, control bank work, temperature coefficients, and pin and assembly power peaking factors. In addition, the SCALE/TRITON v6.3.1 procedure with the ENDF/B-VII.1 and VIII.0 252-group and continuous-energy cross sections was validated for non-lightwater reactors including the HTR-10 reactor, the High-Temperature Test Reactor, the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment, and the Experimental Breeder Reactor II.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Scenario adaptive disruption prediction study for next generation burning-plasma tokamaks

Next generation High Performance (HP) tokamaks risk damage from unmitigated disruptions at high current and power. Achieving reliable disruption prediction for a device's HP operation based on its Low Performance (LP) data is a key to its success. In this letter, through explorative data analysis and dedicated numerical experiments on multiple existing tokamaks, we demonstrate how the operational regimes of tokamaks can affect the power of a trained disruption predictor. First, our results suggest data-driven disruption predictors trained on abundant LP discharges work poorly on the HP regime of the same tokamak, which is a consequence of the distinct distributions of the tightly correlated signals related to disruptions in these two regimes. Second, we find that matching operational parameters among tokamaks strongly improves cross-machine accuracy which implies our model learns from the underlying scalings of dimensionless physics parameters like q 95 , β p and confirms the importance of these parameters in disruption physics and cross machine domain matching from the data-driven perspective. Finally, our results show in the absence of HP data from the target devices, the best predictivity of the HP regime for the target machine can be achieved by combining LP data from the target with HP data from other machines. Furthermore, these results provide a possible disruption predictor development strategy for next generation tokamaks, such as ITER and SPARC, and highlight the importance of developing baseline scenario discharges of future tokamaks on existing machines to collect more relevant disruptive data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Investigation on Tuning Power–Frequency Droop for Improved Grid–Forming Inverter and Synchronous Generator Transient Load Sharing

Poor transient load sharing has been observed during the parallel operation of synchronous generators (SGs) and droop-controlled grid-forming (GFM) inverter-based resources (IBRs) in islanded microgrids. This can result in overcurrent protections, causing the inverters to trip, which leads to the collapse of voltage and frequency. In this article, small-signal analysis supported by electromagnetic transients (EMTs) simulation is performed on a detailed model of a microgrid containing IBRs and an SG to identify underdamped modes and their sensitivities to the power–frequency (P-F) droop parameter. Further EMT simulation of a more complex microgrid model with multiple GFM IBRs and SGs is performed to determine whether trends identified from the modal analysis extend to cases where the number of SGs in operation may vary. The objective is to investigate the effectiveness of tuning this parameter to reduce the likelihood of overcurrents in response to load and generation disturbances. The work uncovers both fast and slow modes of concern. Primarily, the findings show that increasing the P-F droop value improves the damping of the slower mode while degrading the damping of the faster mode, leading to an upper limit on the damping improvement of the GFM IBR output current. In EMT simulations of the more complex microgrid, the greatest damping improvement still exhibits significant maximum overshoot. Furthermore, the optimal value of the P-F droop parameter is sensitive to the number of SGs in operation. The conclusion is that tuning the P-F droop parameter is not an effective means to avoid the overcurrent tripping of GFM IBRs during response to large load or generation disturbances when operating in parallel to SGs in islanded microgrids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Regridding uncertainty for statistical downscaling of solar radiation

Abstract. Initial steps in statistical downscaling involve being able to compare observed data from regional climate models (RCMs). This prediction requires (1) regridding RCM outputs from their native grids and at differing spatial resolutions to a common grid in order to be comparable to observed data and (2) bias correcting RCM data, for example via quantile mapping, for future modeling and analysis. The uncertainty associated with (1) is not always considered for downstream operations in (2). This work examines this uncertainty, which is not often made available to the user of a regridded data product. This analysis is applied to RCM solar radiation data from the NA-CORDEX (North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) data archive and observed data from the National Solar Radiation Database housed at the National Renewable Energy Lab. A case study of the mentioned methods over California is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High-speed tunable generation of random number distributions using actuated perpendicular magnetic tunnel junctions

Perpendicular magnetic tunnel junctions (pMTJs) actuated by nanosecond pulses are emerging as promising devices for true random number generation (TRNG) due to their intrinsic stochastic behavior and high throughput. In this work, we demonstrate the tunability and quality of random number distributions generated by pMTJs operating at a frequency of 104 MHz. First, changing the pulse amplitude is used to systematically vary the probability bias. The variance of the resulting bitstreams closely matches the expected binomial distribution, demonstrating consistency with an underlying sequence of Bernoulli trials. Second, the quality of uniform distributions of 8-bit random numbers generated with a probability bias of 0.5 is considered. A reduced chi-square analysis of these data shows that only two XOR operations are sufficient to achieve this distribution with p-values greater than 0.05. Finally, we show that there is a correlation between long-term probability bias variations and pMTJ resistance. These findings suggest that variations in the characteristics of the pMTJ underlie the observed variation of probability bias. In conclusion, our results highlight the potential of stochastically actuated pMTJs for high-speed, tunable TRNG applications, showing the importance of the stability of pMTJ device characteristics in achieving reliable, long-term performance.

Magnetic tunnel junctions↗