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Evaluating Space Object Conjunction Probabilities Using Characteristic Function Inversion

This report discusses an approach to computing the probability of a conjunction between two space objects in the short-term encounter scenario. A conjunction is defined here as an event where the miss distance between the objects is less than some specified value. The scenario assumptions are that the motion of the objects is linear, their positions are Gaussian distributed, and their velocities are known and constant. Under these assumptions, the squared-miss distance is shown to have the generalized chi-square distribution. An established statistical technique called characteristic function inversion is employed to evaluate the distribution and obtain conjunction probabilities. The method is closely related to a recent approach based on moment generating function inversion, and a qualitative comparison of the approaches is provided. Last, the method is tested on several benchmark test cases where it agrees with numerical integration on the cases with conjunction probabilities above 10 –12 . However, the exact probability in these cases is usually not needed and this probability can be bounded above using an independent Gaussian approximation. Overall, the report shows how to compute conjunction probabilities using a standard statistical method, though numerical integration seems to perform equally well.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Use of Stable Mercury Isotopes to Assess Mercury and Methylmercury Transformation and Transport across Critical Interfaces from the Molecular to the Watershed Scale (Final Report)

This project titled “Use of Stable Mercury Isotopes to Assess Mercury and Methylmercury Transformation and Transport across Critical Interfaces from the Molecular to the Watershed Scale” represents a collaborative effort between the University of Michigan (Jason Demers, PI) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (Scott Brooks, co-I). Much has been learned about mercury (Hg) cycling in stream ecosystems, and East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) in particular, through decades of previous research. Nevertheless, some of the most fundamental questions regarding the sources of bioavailable Hg and its transformation to toxic methylmercury (MeHg) have remained unanswered. These fundamental questions include: (1) what are the sources and biogeochemical processes that lead to the input of dissolved Hg to stream water across critical subsurface interfaces within stream ecosystems, and EFPC in particular? and (2) what are the sources and biogeochemical processes that control the production and fate of bioaccumulative MeHg within stream ecosystems, and in EFPC in particular? To address these fundamental questions, our project aimed to couple laboratory experiments and field observations, both utilizing natural abundance Hg stable isotope techniques, to identify the processes responsible for generating mobile, bioavailable dissolved Hg from recalcitrant legacy sources within critical subsurface zones (e.g., streambed hyporheic zone, riparian floodplain subsurface). We used the isotopic signature of this bioavailable dissolved Hg to track its mobilization across these critical interfaces in order to link diffuse subsurface sources of dissolved Hg with increases in surface water dissolved Hg flux measured at the watershed scale. Additionally, our research aimed to determine the isotopic composition of MeHg within these same critical subsurface zones. We directly assessed the isotopic composition of MeHg within biota in order to gain insight into which subsurface sources of inorganic Hg and toxic MeHg are available for bioaccumulation within the EFPC ecosystem. Net fluxes of dissolved Hg along the flow path of EFPC were shown to vary spatially and temporally. In the Upper EFPC, within the Y12 boundary, stream water flux of dissolved Hg consistently decreased between the outfall and the downstream boundary of Y12 (57% ± 29%, 1SD). Within the Upper EFPC, an assessment of Hg isotopic composition suggested that losses were strongly reaction-driven, although isotopic diagnostics did not conform to any known processes. Downstream of Y12, in the upper reach of the Lower EFPC, dissolved Hg fluxes tended to increase during the dormant season (net gain of 11-120%), and decrease during the growing season (net loss of 23% +/- 18%, 1SD). In the downstream-most reach of Lower EFPC, dissolved Hg fluxes increased by 12-108% in 9 out of 10 monthly assessments. Overall, diffuse fluxes from the non-Y12 watershed accounted for 34% (+/- 17%, 1SD) of all dissolved Hg exported during base flow. Within Lower EFPC, an assessment of Hg isotopic composition was consistent with the contribution of diffuse Hg inputs from high-concentration hotspots within riparian floodplains and streambed hyporheic pore water. To investigate remobilization of recalcitrant Hg from legacy sediment sources, we developed procedures that coupled isotopic analysis with sequential extractions of streambed sediment. We found that the proportion of weakly-bound Hg within EFPC streambed sediment was relatively small, but could still account for a large proportion of the annual flux of dissolved Hg from EFPC. These sequential extractions also showed that this weakly-bound Hg fraction could be replenished from the much larger fraction of recalcitrant Hg in sediment. The isotopic composition of these weakly-bound and remobilized recalcitrant Hg fractions within the sediment was consistent with high-concentration dissolved Hg hotspots within hyporheic pore water. Thus, this research provided novel evidence that legacy mercury sources within streambed sediment could provide an ongoing contribution of dissolved Hg to surface waters. Finally, we developed new methods for the direct determination of the MeHg isotopic composition of organisms, which allowed a more direct evaluation of inorganic Hg and MeHg sources accumulating in the food web. We found that fish and aquatic invertebrates in both EFPC and a regional background site obtained inorganic Hg and MeHg from multiple isotopically distinct sources, including sediment, suspended particulates, and periphyton. Photodemethylation was found to be an important reaction influencing MeHg dynamics at both sites. However, the balance of microbial methylation and demethylation processes differed between the two streams, with fractionation resulting from methylation and demethylation processes being relatively in balance within the regional background site, whereas microbial methylation appeared to be dominant over microbial demethylation within the EFPC ecosystem. Broadly, the application of Hg isotopic analysis in this study led to numerous novel insights regarding the biogeochemical cycling of Hg in stream ecosystems. This research project promoted the development of two new approaches, including the coupling of sequential extractions with Hg isotopic analysis to assess remobilization of recalcitrant Hg within sediments, and a new method for the isotopic analysis of MeHg isolated from environmental samples. Both of these efforts represent advances in capacity for the field of mercury isotopic analysis and environmental assessment. Overall, this study demonstrates that the application of Hg stable isotope techniques continues to provide new insights into the biogeochemical cycling of Hg in complex aquatic environments, both within the EFPC and beyond.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Gravitational wave propagation beyond general relativity: waveform distortions and echoes

We study the cosmological propagation of gravitational waves (GWs) beyond general relativity (GR) across homogeneous and isotropic backgrounds. We consider scenarios in which GWs interact with an additional tensor field and use a parametrized phenomenological approach that generically describes their coupled equations of motion. We analyze four distinct classes of derivative and non-derivative interactions: mass, friction, velocity, and chiral. We apply the WKB formalism to account for the cosmological evolution and obtain analytical solutions to these equations. We corroborate these results by analyzing numerically the propagation of a toy GW signal. We then proceed to use the analytical results to study the modified propagation of realistic GWs from merging compact binaries, assuming that the GW signal emitted is the same as in GR. We generically find that tensor interactions lead to copies of the originally emitted GW signal, each one with its own possibly modified dispersion relation. These copies can travel coherently and interfere with each other leading to a scrambled GW signal, or propagate decoherently and lead to echoes arriving at different times at the observer that could be misidentified as independent GW events. Depending on the type of tensor interaction, the detected GW signal may exhibit amplitude and phase distortions with respect to a GW waveform in GR, as well as birefringence effects. Furthermore, we discuss observational probes of these tensor interactions with both individual GW events, as well as population studies for both ground- and space-based detectors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Universal energy-speed-accuracy trade-offs in driven nonequilibrium systems

The connection between measure theoretic optimal transport and dissipative nonequilibrium dynamics provides a language for quantifying nonequilibrium control costs, leading to a collection of thermodynamic speed limits, which rely on the assumption that the target probability distribution is perfectly realized. This is almost never the case in experiments or numerical simulations, so here we address the situation in which the external controller is imperfect. We obtain a lower bound for the dissipated work in generic nonequilibrium control problems that (1) is asymptotically tight and (2) matches the thermodynamic speed limit in the case of optimal driving. Along with analytically solvable examples, we refine this imperfect driving notion to systems in which the controlled degrees of freedom are slow relative to the nonequilibrium relaxation rate, and identify independent energy contributions from fast and slow degrees of freedom. Furthermore, we develop a strategy for optimizing minimally dissipative protocols based on optimal transport flow matching, a generative machine learning technique. Furthermore, this latter approach ensures the scalability of both the theoretical and computational framework we put forth. Crucially, we demonstrate that we can compute the terms in our bound numerically using efficient algorithms from the computational optimal transport literature and that the protocols we learn saturate the bound.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Beyond 4D tracking: using cluster shapes for track seeding

Tracking is one of the most time consuming aspects of event reconstruction at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and its high-luminosity upgrade (HL-LHC). Innovative detector technologies extend tracking to four-dimensions by including timing in the pattern recognition and parameter estimation. However, present and future hardware already have additional information that is largely unused by existing track seeding algorithms. The shape of pixel-clusters provides an additional dimension for track seeding that can significantly reduce the combinatorial challenge of track finding. We use neural networks to show that cluster shapes can reduce significantly the rate of fake combinatorical backgrounds while preserving a high efficiency. We demonstrate this using the information in cluster singlets, doublets and triplets. Numerical results are presented with simulations from the TrackML challenge.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The quantum evolutions of the diffractive transverse-momentum dependent gluon distribution

Using the Colour Glass Condensate description of electron-nucleus collisions at high energy, we study the diffractive production of a pair of jets with transverse momenta much larger than the nuclear saturation momentum Q s . At leading order in the QCD coupling, the di-jet cross-section exhibits transverse-momentum dependent (TMD) factorisation, with a gluon diffractive TMD distribution (DTMD) which is controlled by gluon saturation and describes the transverse-momentum imbalance between the produced jets. The next-to-leading corrections generate the various quantum evolutions of the diffractive gluon distribution. We focus on the Collins-Soper-Sterman (CSS) evolution which describes the change in the gluon DTMD when increasing the “hard scale” (the typical transverse momentum of the di-jets). We consider two different representations for this equation, one in transverse-momentum space, the other one in transverse-coordinate space. They are not fully equivalent with each other (despite being related by a Fourier transform) because of the respective boundary conditions. These conditions encode the essential physics of gluon saturation together with the effects of two other types of quantum evolution: the BK/JIMWLK evolution over the rapidity gap (“inside the Pomeron”) and the DGLAP evolution outside the rapidity gap (“within the diffractive system”). We demonstrate that, due to gluon saturation, one can compute both the boundary conditions and the CSS solutions mostly from first principles, without the need for a non-perturbative Sudakov. We numerically find a good agreement between the CSS solutions in the two aforementioned representations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Turbulence modeling to aid tidal energy resource characterization in the Western Passage, Maine, USA

Numerical models combined with field measurements are regularly used to characterize tidal energy resources at potential energetic sites. However, most existing works only focus on the tidal hydrodynamic characteristics, and turbulence parameters are often not reported because of the lack of high-quality turbulence measurements and the limitations of numerical models in resolving turbulent eddies. In this study, we used FVCOM - a hydrostatic primitive equation (HPE) model - to characterize the tidal energy resource in the Western Passage, Maine, USA, by taking care of the essential macro-scale turbulence properties. We observed an excellent model performance using the Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5 Turbulence Model; estimating the spatial and vertical distribution of the turbulent kinetic energy and intensity added a new perspective to the site ranking for tidal energy converter (TEC) deployments. In addition, we also examined the role of channel geometry and bathymetry, such as headlands and underwater sills, in enhancing turbulent eddies around potential TEC siting locations. Ultimately, the detailed analysis of the turbulent flow characteristics has changed the site-ranking results and demonstrated that the regional-scale HPE models could be used for the relative understanding of more or less turbulent sites for a refined resource assessment.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Preconditioners for multiphase poromechanics with strong capillarity

This paper aims to enhance the performance of Newton–Krylov solvers for coupled poromechanical problems with two-phase flow. In particular, we investigate the impact of capillary pressure on preconditioning strategies. Capillarity complicates the coupling between the solid deformation and fluid pressure degrees of freedom, as well as increases the nonlinearity of the system. Depending on the capillary pressure relation used in the constitutive formulation, the flow equations may exhibit a spectrum of advection-dominated to diffusion-dominated behavior. We propose preconditioning approaches that account for this behavior and lead to robust numerical performance within a broad range of regimes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analysis of basic airflow configurations for separate sensible and latent cooling systems with indoor air recirculation

Separate sensible and latent cooling (SSLC) is a technology with efficiency and comfort advantages over conventional cooling systems used for space conditioning of buildings. Using multiple cooling processes at different temperatures allows SSLC to save energy by raising the evaporation temperature of the sensible cooling process. In this paper, all possible airflow configurations of SSLC systems are enumerated under the following constraints: exactly two heat exchangers are used, and air is recirculated to the conditioned space (no exhaust or outdoor air treatment). Seven designs are identified, with varying free operating variables, and each is modeled. Analysis reveals that several configurations are equivalent, and there is only one unique basic airflow SSLC configuration: the one with the sensible and latent heat exchangers placed in series. The efficiency of the SSLC system is compared against that of the conventional system. Under standard conditions, an SSLC system can improve the coefficient of performance by 14.8%. In addition to the numerical simulation, the optimal operating condition of the basic air configuration of the SSLC system is derived analytically. The basic SSLC system is shown to offer the highest performance improvement when the outdoor temperature is relatively cool and the space sensible heat ratio is high.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An improved stochastic weighted particle method for boundary driven flows

Here, the stochastic weighted particle method (SWPM) is a generalization of the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method where particle weights are variable and dynamic. SWPM is backed by a strong theoretical foundation but has not been critically evaluated for problems of practical interest. A thorough assessment of SWPM for boundary-driven flows reveals significant numerical artifacts near the boundary, notably a diverging heat flux. To correct the boundary heat flux, two modifications to SWPM are proposed: separated grouping and a spatially-dependent weight transfer function. To gauge the relative efficiency of SWPM in comparison to DSMC, a high-Mach-number wheel flow which forms a strong density gradient is also simulated.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Elevated temperature mechanical properties of Inconel 617 surface oxide using nanoindentation

Inconel 617 is a principal candidate material for helium gas cooled very-high-temperature reactors with outlet temperatures of 700–950 °C. Recent findings showed that this alloy develops unique surface oxide layers especially at high temperature (HT) helium environment with distinctive wear, friction and contact properties. This study investigates the elevated temperature mechanical properties of Inconel 617 top surface layers aged in HT helium environment. Nanoindentation technique is used to obtain load-displacement graphs of the alloy top surface oxide in temperatures ranging from 25 °C up to 600 °C. In addition, using finite element analysis along with an iterative regression technique, a semi-numerical method is developed to further measure and quantify the material parameters and, in particular, time-independent and creep characteristics of the oxide. Although Young's modulus of the oxide is found to be relatively close to the bulk for the tested temperatures, the yield strength and hardness, in comparison to the bulk material, increase significantly as the material is oxidized after aging. The oxide exhibits significant softening as the temperature increases to 600 °C. Unlike the bulk material, diffusion through the grains is found to be the dominant creep mechanism for the oxide. Considerable difference between the mechanical properties of the oxide and the bulk material shows the need for accurate measurements of near surface mechanical properties, if reliable predictive contact and tribological models are sought at elevated temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Examining Infrasound Propagation at High Spatial Resolution Using a Nodal Seismic Array

Infrasound—acoustic waves in the atmosphere below 20 Hz—is a useful monitoring tool. Topography and atmospheric structure strongly control infrasound propagation, and at common source–receiver distances neither of these effects can be ignored when quantitative source constraints are sought. Detailed spatial measurements of the infrasound wavefield would inform propagation models and improve source estimates. However, the “large-N” deployment strategy now well-known in seismology has not yet been realized for infrasound studies. Here, we use the 900-node seismic array from the 2014 Imaging Magma Under St. Helens (iMUSH) experiment as a proxy for a large-N infrasound network, by leveraging acoustic–seismic coupled arrivals. The active-source component of iMUSH consisted of 23 shallowly buried explosions around Mount Saint Helens volcano; these explosions produced epicentral infrasound recorded on the nodes. We find that the bulk presence of ground-coupled infrasound on the nodes is controlled by wind noise and source–receiver distance, with observed arrivals for eight explosions. Explosions with the most extensive coupling produce complex spatial waveform patterns across the array. These patterns are related to both topographic and atmospheric propagation effects, as well as spatially variable site (coupling) effects. We compare our observations to simple topographic diffraction and high-resolution wind advection models, and full-wave numerical simulations. We find strong spatial correlations between (a) coupled arrival strength and modeled topographic obstruction and (b) coupled arrival time and along-path winds. Our seismoacoustic analyses and results are applicable to other existing and future nodal seismic data sets and can expand the utility of such deployments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Distributing User Code with the CernVM FileSystem

The CernVM FileSystem (CVMFS) is widely used in High Throughput Computing to efficiently distributed experiment code. However, the standard CVMFS publishing tools are designed for a small group of people from each experiment to maintain common software, and the tools are not a good fit for publishing software from numerous users in each experiment. As a result, most user code, such as code to do specific physics analyses, is still sent with every job to the place the job is run. That process is relatively inefficient, especially when the user code is large. To overcome these limitations, we have built a CVMFS user code publication system. This publication system enables users to still submit their code with their jobs but the code is distributed and accessed through the standard CVMFS infrastructure. The user code is automatically deleted from CVMFS after a period of no use. Most of the software for the system is available as a single self-contained open source rpm called cvmfs-user-pub and is available for other deployments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ion-temperature-gradient stability near the magnetic axis of quasisymmetric stellarators

Abstract The stability of the ion-temperature gradient mode in quasisymmetric stellarators is assessed. This is performed using a set of analytical estimates together with linear gyrokinetic simulations. The peak growth rates, their corresponding real frequencies and wave-vectors are identified. A comparison is made between a first-order near-axis expansion model and eleven realistic designs obtained using numerical optimization methods. It is found that while the near-axis expansion is able to replicate the growth rates, real frequencies and perpendicular wave-vector at the inner core (both using simplified dispersion relations and first-principle gyrokinetic simulations), it leads to an overestimation of the growth rate at larger radii. An approximate analytic solution of the ITG dispersion relation for the non-resonant limit suggests growth rates could be systematically higher in quasi-axisymmetric (QA) configurations compared to quasi-helically (QH) symmetric ones. However except for very close to the axis, linear gyrokinetic simulations do not show systematic differences between QA and QH configurations.

Physics↗

Transport Simulations on Scanning Transmission Electron Microscope Images of Nanoporous Shale

Digital rock physics is an often-mentioned approach to better understand and model transport processes occurring in tight nanoporous media including the organic and inorganic matrix of shale. Workflows integrating nanometer-scale image data and pore-scale simulations are relatively undeveloped, however. In this paper, a workflow is demonstrated progressing from sample acquisition and preparation, to image acquisition by Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (STEM) tomography, to volumetric reconstruction to pore-space discretization to numerical simulation of pore-scale transport. Key aspects of the workflow include (i) STEM tomography in high angle annular dark field (HAADF) mode to image three-dimensional pore networks in µm-sized samples with nanometer resolution and (ii) lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) simulations to describe gas flow in slip, transitional, and Knudsen diffusion regimes. It is shown that STEM tomography with nanoscale resolution yields excellent representation of the size and connectivity of organic nanopore networks. In turn, pore-scale simulation on such networks contributes to understanding of transport and storage properties of nanoporous shale. Interestingly, flow occurs primarily along pore networks with pore dimensions on the order of tens of nanometers. Smaller pores do not form percolating pathways in the sample volume imaged. Apparent gas permeability in the range of 10−19 to 10−16 m2 is computed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Landscape of Thermal Transients from Supernovae Interacting with a Circumstellar Medium

The interaction of supernova ejecta with a surrounding circumstellar medium (CSM) generates a strong shock, which can convert ejecta kinetic energy into observable radiation. Given the diversity of potential CSM structures (arising from diverse mass-loss processes such as late-stage stellar outbursts, binary interaction, and winds), the resulting transients can display a wide range of light-curve morphologies. We provide a framework for classifying the transients arising from interaction with a spherical CSM shell. The light curves are decomposed into five consecutive phases, starting from the onset of interaction and extending through shock breakout and subsequent shock cooling. The relative prominence of each phase in the light curve is determined by two dimensionless quantities representing the CSM-to-ejecta mass ratio η, and the breakout parameter ξ. These two parameters define four light-curve morphology classes, where each class is characterized by the location of the shock breakout and the degree of deceleration as the shock sweeps up the CSM. We compile analytic scaling relations connecting the luminosity and duration of each light-curve phase to the physical parameters. We then run a grid of radiation hydrodynamics simulations for a wide range of ejecta and CSM parameters to numerically explore the landscape of interaction light curves, and to calibrate and confirm the analytic scalings. We connect our theoretical framework to several case studies of observed transients, highlighting the relevance in explaining slow-rising and superluminous supernovae, fast blue optical transients, and double-peaked light curves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Instanton Effects in Euclidean vacuum, Real Time Production, and in the Light-front Wave Functions

Nontrivial topological structures of non-Abelian gauge fields were discovered in the 1970s. Instanton solutions, describing vacuum tunneling through topological barriers, have fermionic zero modes which are at the origin of ‘t Hooft effective Lagrangian. In the 1980s, instanton ensembles have been used to explain chiral symmetry breaking. In the 1990s, a large set of numerical simulations were performed deriving Euclidean correlation functions. The special role of scalar diquarks in nucleons and color superconductivity in dense quark matter has been elucidated. In these lectures, we discuss further developments of physics related to gauge topology. We show that the instanton–anti-instanton “streamline” configurations describe “sphaleron transitions” in high-energy collisions, which result in production of hadronic clusters with nontrivial topological/chiral charges. (They are not yet observed, but discussions of dedicated experiments at the LHC and RHIC are ongoing.) Another new direction is instanton effects in hadronic spectroscopy, both in the rest frame and on the light front. We will discuss their role in central and spin-dependent potentials, form factors and antiquark nuclear “sea”. Finally, we summarize the advances in the semiclassical theory of deconfinement, and chiral phase transitions at finite temperature, in QCD, and in some of its “deformed” versions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

On component isolation of conceptual advanced reactors

Implementation of component isolation in nuclear industry is challenging due to gaps in research and the lack of specific guidelines. In this study, parameters affecting component-level isolation of advanced reactor vessels are identified based on a representative numerical model with explicit consideration of nonlinear soil-structure interaction (SSI). The objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of, and to identify potential limitations of using conventional friction pendulum and lead-rubber bearings to seismically isolate vessels. It is found that slender vessels or components are particularly vulnerable to rotational accelerations at the isolation interface, which are caused by rotation of the sub-structure and by excitation of higher modes in the horizontal direction of the seismically isolated system. Component isolation is found to be more effective for relatively stiffer vessels and at sites with stiff soil properties. Considering that conventional isolators are deficient in resisting axial tension, it is observed that the optimum location for supporting a component to achieve seismic isolation, is at a cross-sectional plane passing through the center of mass of the vessel. These findings are corroborated by numerous simulations of the response of seismically isolated reactor vessels at different nuclear sites subject to a variety of ground motions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗