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At least 901 records · Page 50

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

Numerical simulation of the atmosphere during a CAT encounter

In an attempt to determine whether clear air turbulence (CAT) which caused a brief, intense turbulence encounter to a jetliner might have been related to gravity waves generated by a line of thunderstorms, local sounding data taken within two hours of the incident have been used as input to a numerical model designed to simulate stratified flow over obstacles. In the model a rigid obstacle at the lower boundary acted as the source of the gravity waves. The model results show a large amplitude disturbance localized over the obstacle at and above flight level, in regions where CAT would be expected. Stratification studies have been conducted, varying the height and shape of the obstacle and the input wind profile. The success of the experiment leads to the conclusion that atmospheric gravity wave simulation can be useful in understanding and possibly avoiding CAT.

Keller, T. L.↗

Ion-ion waves in the auroral region - Wave excitation and ion heating

The properties of the ion-ion mode which is excited in plasmas when two or more cold ion beams are streaming relative to one another are investigated assuming a warm electron distribution at rest (the model consistent with particle distributions observed in auroral plasma cavities). Numerical solutions are derived for the generalized electrostatic dispersion equation for parallel propagation and for oblique propagation of ion waves. It is shown that the relative ion temperature and concentration have significant effects on the stability of the accelerated plasma and the expected ion heating. Finally, a relationship between ion drift and thermal speed is derived using the marginal stability of ion-ion waves for nonzero ion temperature; the relationship was found to compare favorably with DE-1 ion observations at the high-altitude boundary of the auroral cavity.

Dusenbery, P. B.↗

Models of Active Glacial Isostasy Roofing Warm Subduction: Case of the South Patagonian Ice Field

Modern geodetic techniques such as precise Global Positioning System (GPS) and high-resolution space gravity mapping (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE) make it possible to measure the present-day rate of viscoelastic gravitational Earth response to present and past glacier mass changes. The Andes of Patagonia contain glacial environments of dramatic mass change. These mass load changes occur near a tectonically active boundary between the Antarctic and South American plates. The mechanical strength of the continental side of this boundary is influenced by Neogene ridge subduction and by the subduction of a youthful oceanic slab. A ridge of young volcanos parallels the Pacific coastline. Release of volatiles (such as water) at depth along this ridge creates a unique rheological environment. To assess the influence of this rheological ridge structure on the observational land uplift rate, we apply a two dimensional viscoelastic Earth model. A numerical study is presented which examines the sensitivity of the glacial loading-unloading response to the complex structure at depth related to the subducting slab, the viscous wedge between slab and continental lithosphere, and the increase of elastic thickness from oceanic to continental lithosphere. A key feature revealed by our numerical experiments is a continuum flow wherein the slab subdues the material transport toward oceanic mantle and crust. The restricted flow is sensitive to the details of slab mechanical strength and penetration into the upper mantle. The reduced viscosity within the mantle wedge, however, enhances the load-induced material transport everywhere within the asthenosphere.

crustal mass changes↗

Resistive wave dissipation on magnetic inhomogeneities Normal modes and phase mixing

Numerical solutions of the linearized, resistive MHD equations indicate the presence of two characteristic forms of wave decay on magnetic inhomogeneities. Solutions for relatively long-wavelength disturbances and large values of the resistivity have the behavior of decaying normal modes. In the opposite limits, phase mixing becomes important, with the eventual build-up of large spatial gradients in which the resistive terms dominate. This composite behavior is shown to be conceptually consistent with analytic results, which predict that the complete solution consists of the sum of collective and noncollective contributions. The numerical simulations go beyond analytic theory by defining where each contribution prevails and computing wave decay when phase mixing is effective. The dispersion relation in the normal-mode regime is also determined analytically, with some approximations, and is in good agreement with the numerical solution. The decay time of the normal modes varies with Lundquist number at S1/6, while the phase-mixed decay time scales as S1/3.

Steinolfson, R. S.↗

Unsteady transonic aerodynamics - An aeronautics challenge

The paper presents a review of the historical development in unsteady transonic aerodynamics, along with the foundations and accomplishments of several approaches to solve the equations of unsteady transonic flow. The discussion covers the linearized unsteady flow theory, numerical solution of the exact equations for an inviscid compressible gas, nonlinear small disturbance theory of transonic flow and linearization of the unsteady component about the nonlinear solution for the steady state, local linearization solution for unsteady transonic flow, unsteady transonic flow theory for slender wings and bodies, and three-dimensional unsteady transonic flows. The relation between the calculated results and experiment is examined. It is shown that the newly emerging numerical methods are capable of solving the nonlinear equations for two-dimensional flow and can be extended to three-dimensional flows.

Spreiter, J. R.↗

DE 102 - A numerically integrated ephemeris of the moon and planets spanning forty-four centuries

It is pointed out that the 1960's were the turning point for the generation of lunar and planetary ephemerides. All previous measurements of the positions of solar system bodies were optical angular measurements. New technological improvements leading to immense changes in observational accuracy are related to developments concerning radar, Viking landers on Mars, and laser ranges to lunar corner cube retroreflectors. Suitable numerical integration techniques and more comprehensive physical models were developed to match the accuracy of the modern data types. The present investigation is concerned with the first integrated ephemeris, DE 102, which covers the entire span of the historical astronomical observations of usable accuracy which are known. The fit is made to modern data. The integration spans the time period from 1411 BC to 3002 AD.

Newhall, X. X.↗

Understanding the relation between wind- and pressure-driven sea level variability

Sea surface adjustment to combined wind and pressure forcing is examined using numerical solutions to the shallow water equations. The experiments use coastal geometry and bottom topography representative of the North Atlantic and are forced by realistic barometric pressure and wind stress fields. The repsonse to pressure is essentially static or close to the inverted barometer solution at periods longer than a few days and dominates the sea level variability, with wind-driven sea level signals being relatively small. With regard to the dynamic signals, wind-driven fluctuations dominate at long periods, as expected from quasi-geostrophic theory. Pressure becomes more important than wind stress as a source of dynamic signals only at periods shorter than approximately three days. Wind- and pressure-driven sea level fluctuations are anticorrelated over most regions. Hence, regressions of sea level on barometric pressure yield coefficients generally smaller than expected for the inverted barometer response known to be the case in the model. In the regions of significant wind-pressure correlation effects, to infer the correct pressure reponse using statistical methods, input fields must include winds as well as pressure. Because of the nonlocal character of the wind response, multivariate statistical models with local wind driving as input are not very successful. Inclusion of nonlocal wind variability over extensive regions is necessary to extract the correct pressure response. Implications of these results to the interpretation of sea level observations are discussed.

Ponte, Rui M.↗

A numerical investigation of planetesimal collision trajectories with a Moon accumulating in Earth orbit

In the scenario of lunar origin in which the Moon is assumed to have accreted most of its mass while in orbit about the Earth, ismals on the accrea knowledge of the relative impact rates of heliocentric planetting Earth and Moon is essential for any attempt to establish dynamical constraints on lunar origin. Numerical integrations of the regularized equations of motion for four bodies (Sun, Earth, Moon, planetismal) were done. A planetismal impact trajectory was calculated by assuming that the planetismal has hit the surface of the Moon at an assumed location, traveling in an assumed direction, and with an assumed impact speed. Next, the equations of motion were numerically integrated backward in time in order to determine from where the planetismal has come. In this way those volumes in heliocentric orbital element space which contribute trajectories that directly impact the Moon.

Cox, L. P.↗

Fluid dynamic modeling and numerical simulation of low-density hypersonic flow

The concept of a viscous shock-layer and several related versions of continuum theories/methods are examined for their adequacy as a viable framework to study flow physics and aerothermodynamics of relevance to sustained hypersonic flights. Considering the flat plate at angle of attack, or the wedge, as a generic example for the major aerodynamic component of a hypersonic vehicle, the relative importance of the molecular-transport effects behind the shock (in the form of the 'shock slip') and the wall-slip effects are studied. In the flow regime where the shock-transition-zone thickness remains small compared to the shock radius of curvature, a quasi-one-dimensional shock structure under the Burnett/thirteen-moment approximation, as well as particulate/collisional models, can be consistently developed. The fully viscous version of the shock-layer model is shown to provide the crucial boundary condition downstream the shock in this case. The gas-kinetic basis of the continuum description for the flow behind the bow shock, and certain features affecting the non-equilibrium flow chemistry, are also discussed.

Cheng, H. K.↗

Upwind-biased, point-implicit relaxation strategies for hypersonic flowfield simulations on supercomputers

An upwind-biased, point-implicit relaxation algorithm for obtaining the numerical solution to the governing equations for three-dimensional, viscous, hypersonic flows in chemical and thermal nonequilibrium is described. The algorithm is derived using a finite-volume formulation in which the inviscid components of flux across cell walls are described with Roe's averaging and Harten's entropy fix with second-order corrections based on Yee's Symmetric Total Variation Diminishing scheme. The relaxation strategy is well suited for computers employing either vector or parallel architectures, and the relation between computer architecture and algorithm is emphasized. It is also well suited to the numerical solution of the governing equations on unstructured grids. Because of the point-implicit relaxation strategy, the algorithm remains stable at large Courant numbers without the necessity of solving large. block tri-diagonal systems. A single relaxation step depends only on information from nearest neighbors. Predictions for pressure distributions, surface heating, and aerodynamic coefficients compare well with experimental data for Mach 10 flow over a blunt body. Predictions for the hypersonic flow of air in chemical and thermal nonequilibrium (velocity = 8917 m/s, altitude = 78 km.) over the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) configuration obtained on a multi-domain grid are discussed.

Gnoffo, Peter A.↗

Probabilistic Structural Analysis and Reliability Using NESSUS With Implemented Material Strength Degradation Model

This project included both research and education objectives. The goal of this project was to advance innovative research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction for improved reliability and safety of structural components of aerospace and aircraft propulsion systems. Research and education partners included Glenn Research Center (GRC) and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) along with the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). SwRI enhanced the NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) code and provided consulting support for NESSUS-related activities at UTSA. NASA funding supported three undergraduate students, two graduate students, a summer course instructor and the Principal Investigator. Matching funds from UTSA provided for the purchase of additional equipment for the enhancement of the Advanced Interactive Computational SGI Lab established during the first year of this Partnership Award to conduct the probabilistic finite element summer courses. The research portion of this report presents the cumulation of work performed through the use of the probabilistic finite element program, NESSUS, Numerical Evaluation and Structures Under Stress, and an embedded Material Strength Degradation (MSD) model. Probabilistic structural analysis provided for quantification of uncertainties associated with the design, thus enabling increased system performance and reliability. The structure examined was a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) fuel turbopump blade. The blade material analyzed was Inconel 718, since the MSD model was previously calibrated for this material. Reliability analysis encompassing the effects of high temperature and high cycle fatigue, yielded a reliability value of 0.99978 using a fully correlated random field for the blade thickness. The reliability did not change significantly for a change in distribution type except for a change in distribution from Gaussian to Weibull for the centrifugal load. The sensitivity factors determined to be most dominant were the centrifugal loading and the initial strength of the material. These two sensitivity factors were influenced most by a change in distribution type from Gaussian to Weibull. The education portion of this report describes short-term and long-term educational objectives. Such objectives serve to integrate research and education components of this project resulting in opportunities for ethnic minority students, principally Hispanic. The primary vehicle to facilitate such integration was the teaching of two probabilistic finite element method courses to undergraduate engineering students in the summers of 1998 and 1999.

Bast, Callie C.↗

Numerical simulations of interacting disk galaxies

Galaxy-galaxy interactions have long attracted many extragalactic astronomers in various aspects. A number of computer simulations performed in the 1970s have successfully reproduced the peculiar morphologies observed in interacting disk galaxies and clarified that tidal deformation explains most of the observed global peculiarities. However, most of these simulations have used test particles in modelling the disk component. Tidal response of a self-gravitating disk remains to be further clarified. Another topic which is intensely discussed at present is the relation between galaxy-galaxy interactions and activity. Many observations suggest that interactions trigger strong starbursts and possibly active galactic nuclei (AGN). However, the detailed mechanism of triggering is not yet clear. It is vital here to understand the dynamics of interstellar gas. In order to understand various phenomena related to galaxy-galaxy interactions (mainly for disk galaxies), the author performed a series of numerical simulations on close galaxy encounters which includes both interstellar gas and self-gravitating disk components. In these simulations, the galaxy model to be perturbed (target galaxy) consists of a halo and a disk. The halo was treated as a rigid spherical gravitational field which is assumed to remain fixed during the interaction. The disk is composed of stars and gas. The stellar disk was constructed by 20000 collisionless particles of the same mass. Those particles move in the halo gravitational field, interacting with each other and with the perturber. Therefore, the self-graviy of the disk is properly taken into account. Stellar particles were initially given circular velocities with small random motions required to stabilize the disk against local axisymmetric disturbances. The gravitational field of the stellar disk was calculated by the particle-mesh scheme (e.g. Hockney and Eastwood 1981). The gaseous component was modelled by the cloud-particle scheme (e.g. Roberts and Hausman 1984). Here, the authors represent the gas as an ensemble of small spheres (i.e. clouds) and include the creation of an OB star in a cloud-cloud collision and subsequent velocity push on nearby clouds due to a supernova explosion.

Noguchi, Masafumi↗

Instantaneous Wavenumber Estimation for Damage Quantification in Layered Plate Structures

This paper illustrates the application of instantaneous and local wavenumber damage quantification techniques for high frequency guided wave interrogation. The proposed methodologies can be considered as first steps towards a hybrid structural health monitoring/ nondestructive evaluation (SHM/NDE) approach for damage assessment in composites. The challenges and opportunities related to the considered type of interrogation and signal processing are explored through the analysis of numerical data obtained via EFIT simulations of damage in CRFP plates. Realistic damage configurations are modeled from x-ray CT scan data of plates subjected to actual impacts, in order to accurately predict wave-damage interactions in terms of scattering and mode conversions. Simulation data is utilized to enhance the information provided by instantaneous and local wavenumbers and mitigate the complexity related to the multi-modal content of the plate response. Signal processing strategies considered for this purpose include modal decoupling through filtering in the frequency/wavenumber domain, the combination of displacement components, and the exploitation of polarization information for the various modes as evaluated through the dispersion analysis of the considered laminate lay-up sequence. The results presented assess the effectiveness of the proposed wavefield processing techniques as a hybrid SHM/NDE technique for damage detection and quantification in composite, plate-like structures.

Mesnil, Olivier↗

M-MRAC for SPHERES

This paper presents application of the modified reference model MRAC (M-MRAC) method to control the relative position and orientation of a cluster of satellites known collectively as the Synchronized Position Hold, Engage, Reorient Experimental Satellites (SPHERES). The approach uses fast estimation algorithms to achieve guaranteed tracking of reference commands for both input and output signals in the presence of uncertainties in mass and inertia data and external disturbances. The tracking errors can be systematically decreased by the proper selection of the design parameters in the identification model. The generated control signals have acceptable magnitudes and exhibit no oscillations. The benefits of the method are demonstrated in numerical simulations.

Relative motion↗