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DOE OSTI2026

JUSTIFI: Software for Improving Performance Objectives via Energy Efficiency

With growing energy supply concerns and rising costs, energy efficiency is a critical component of industrial energy resilience and competitiveness by directly reducing energy operating costs. Energy efficiency projects in manufacturing also yield valuable benefits to other key metrics, such as improved quality, reduced maintenance costs, improved safety, decreased pollution, and enhanced productivity. However, it is difficult to receive approval for energy efficiency projects, so implementation rates are low, even when meeting capital project payback period criteria. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs) in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback period while demonstrating a positive impact on the firm's key performance metrics and business strategy. Despite their significant financial and strategic value, NEBs are rarely factored into decision-making due to lack of tools to effectively identify and quantify them. Therefore, a comprehensive and integrative approach is needed for the rapidly evolving energy landscape. To address these challenges, through funding from U.S. Department of Energy, our new assessment methodology integrates common continuous improvement six sigma concepts, such as the DMAIC process, and a protocol of guiding questions, into energy efficiency assessments to identify NEBs. We have also developed open-source software, JUSTIFI, to guide users through this process, data collection, and quantification. It is designed to be used concurrently with DOE energy system analysis software suite, MEASUR. Our methodology and tools inform energy assessors, firm engineering, decision makers, and workforce seeking to increase energy resilience and to maximize benefits aligned with performance metrics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bioenergy and Climate Change in Ukraine: How climate can impact the sustainability of bioenergy production

The Russian invasion has exacerbated Ukraine’s energy security issues, prompting a shift toward diversifying energy supply sources. Additionally, strategic documents aim to align Ukraine’s energy system with EU climate requirements, focusing on reducing reliance on fossil fuels and advancing decarbonization efforts. This report focuses on the expansion of bioenergy as an alternative source of energy in Ukraine. Current assessments suggest that Ukraine has substantial bioenergy potential, primarily from agricultural residues and energy crops. However, the challenges posed by climate change and the ongoing war might impact the outcome of these projections. This report highlights the importance of integrating climate factors into energy modeling using tools like the integrated assessment models to provide a comprehensive understanding of Ukraine’s bioenergy potential under various climate scenarios. It also emphasizes the need for climate-smart agriculture and forestry practices to mitigate risks, enhance energy efficiency, and support resilient crop supplies. Recommendations for stakeholders include diversification of the energy supply sources, developing adaptation strategies, diversifying bioenergy feedstocks, and ensuring robust decision-making to navigate the impacts of climate change on Ukraine’s energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigation and Diagnosis of Faulty Data Channels in CMS Outer Tracker Module Testing

The High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) is currently undergoing upgrades to improve its luminosity. In parallel, this requires an upgrade to the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS)’s Outer Tracker, consisting of Pixel-Strip (PS) and Strip-Strip (2S) modules that can accurately track the path of charged particles originating from the collisions. It follows that such complex modules call for extensive testing, requiring a sophisticated Data Acquisition (DAQ) system that can perform specific tests to assess their performance. In addition, errors caused by the hardware of a given testing station, and its associated data channel, need to be accurately identified to guarantee proper testing of modules. We have developed a software extension to the Phase-II Outer Tracker Analyzer of Test Outputs (POTATO), which is a specialized software designed to analyze and grade all of the module tests through a centralized database. This extension categorizes and analyzes module test results by its station and data channel. Its analysis can be used to identify trends in grading that indicate issues in these channels’ grading process rather than in the individual modules. This poster shows our methodology and results for identifying faulty data channels. Using this extension, we can quickly diagnose and address problems in our DAQ system, ensuring proper evaluation corrections for each module.

Chen, Angus [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigation and Diagnosis of Faulty Data Channels in CMS Outer Tracker Module Testing

The High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) is currently undergoing upgrades to improve its luminosity. In parallel, this requires an upgrade to the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS)’s Outer Tracker, consisting of Pixel-Strip (PS) and Strip-Strip (2S) modules that can accurately track the path of charged particles originating from the collisions. It follows that such complex modules call for extensive testing, requiring a sophisticated Data Acquisition (DAQ) system that can perform specific tests to assess their performance. In addition, errors caused by the hardware of a given testing station, and its associated data channel, need to be accurately identified to guarantee proper testing of modules. We have developed a software extension to the Phase-II Outer Tracker Analyzer of Test Outputs (POTATO), which is a specialized software designed to analyze and grade all of the module tests through a centralized database. This extension categorizes and analyzes module test results by its station and data channel. Its analysis can be used to identify trends in grading that indicate issues in these channels’ grading process rather than in the individual modules. This poster shows our methodology and results for identifying faulty data channels. Using this extension, we can quickly diagnose and address problems in our DAQ system, ensuring proper evaluation corrections for each module.

Chen, Angus [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilience in an Evolving Electrical Grid

Fundamental shifts in the structure and generation profile of electrical grids are occurring amidst increased demand for resilience. These two simultaneous trends create the need for new planning and operational practices for modern grids that account for the compounding uncertainties inherent in both resilience assessment and increasing contribution of variable inverter-based renewable energy sources. This work reviews the research work addressing the changing generation profile, state-of-the-art practices to address resilience, and research works at the intersection of these two topics in regards to electrical grids. The contribution of this work is to highlight the ongoing research in power system resilience and integration of variable inverter-based renewable energy sources in electrical grids, and to identify areas of current and further study at this intersection. Areas of research identified at this intersection include cyber-physical analysis of solar, wind, and distributed energy resources, microgrids, network evolution and observability, substation automation and self-healing, and probabilistic planning and operation methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

1.4.2.402 - Water Risk for the Bulk Power System: Asset to Grid Impacts

Utilities and stakeholders need a standardized mechanism for evaluating how future climate and hydrologic conditions translate to water-related risks for power grid assets and systems to support planning decisions. Yet, no such mechanism exists. To address this need, our goals are to: (1) Develop and execute a state-of-the-art multi-model framework to assess future climate-water impacts and risks to the grid, including sensitivities to varying hydrologic drivers and infrastructure scenarios. (2) Create a standardized interactive visualization platform, using data from the climate-water risk assessments, that enables stakeholders to evaluate climate-water impacts, risks, and adaptation measures for power systems.

bulk power system↗
DOE OSTI2023

Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Program’s Workshop on the Future of Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (LES): Workshop Report

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is used as a tool to understand physical processes such as turbulence, aerosols, clouds, precipitation, radiation, the interactions among all these, and their interactions with the underlying surface. Over the next 10 years, LES will drive fundamental progress in open scientific questions in these areas as LES is increasingly used to gain understanding of complex interacting physical processes involving atmospheric turbulence. This growth will be driven both by scientific demand and the expansion of computational resources needed to conduct LES, and the form that the growth takes will largely be determined by how computational resources are leveraged for scientific gain. In particular, we suggest that computational resources are likely to be leveraged in two separate but not necessarily distinct ways. On one hand, growth in computational resources will allow LES to be made more routine, that is, performed more frequently, while on the other hand, the computational expense (measured in total floating point operations) afforded to individual LES will expand dramatically, allowing simulations to increase in both domain size and resolution as well as physical detail. Current U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) projects such as LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation Activity (LASSO) are leading the way in conducting routine LES, building large, public databases that are accessible for data science, sensitivity studies, and training for machine learning. LES will also become more routine as it becomes more accessible for individual researchers to address their scientific questions of interest. Scientific questions addressed by LES over the next 10 years are likely to include cloud organization and aggregation; aerosol cloud interactions and atmospheric chemistry (including geo-engineering); urban-scale LES; atmospheric extreme events, ranging from small-scale severe weather to wildfires; and ocean-wave-atmosphere interactions. Further LES-related research will likely grow significantly in areas related to societal impact studies of air quality and extreme weather events, applications to renewable energy forecasting and resource assessment, and aid in decision-making processes. The growth in the use of LES in atmospheric science research will drive the need for better physical process representations (e.g., cloud aerosol microphysics, radiation, and atmospheric chemistry) at the scales resolved by LES. To date, many of the process representations used by LES have been taken directly from coarser-resolution models. Promising methods for LES process representations include superdroplet and quadrature methods for microphysics, 3D approaches for radiation, and better representation of chemistry and aerosol processes. At LES resolution, land-atmosphere interactions for complex terrains, land cover/types, biogeochemistry, and plant canopy models are needed as an improvement beyond traditional and widely used Monin-Obuhkov similarity theory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing climate-change-induced flood risk in the Conasauga River watershed: an application of ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling

Abstract. This study evaluates the impact of potential future climate change on flood regimes, floodplain protection, and electricity infrastructures across the Conasauga River watershed in the southeastern United States through ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling. The ensemble streamflow scenarios were simulated by the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) driven by (1) 1981–2012 Daymet meteorological observations and (2) 11 sets of downscaled global climate models (GCMs) during the 1966–2005 historical and 2011–2050 future periods. Surface inundation was simulated using a GPU-accelerated Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) hydrodynamic model. A total of 9 out of the 11 GCMs exhibit an increase in the mean ensemble flood inundation areas. Moreover, at the 1 % annual exceedance probability level, the flood inundation frequency curves indicate a ∼ 16 km2 increase in floodplain area. The assessment also shows that even after flood-proofing, four of the substations could still be affected in the projected future period. The increase in floodplain area and substation vulnerability highlights the need to account for climate change in floodplain management. Overall, this study provides a proof-of-concept demonstration of how the computationally intensive hydrodynamic inundation modeling can be used to enhance flood frequency maps and vulnerability assessment under the changing climatic conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain. As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO 2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reference Station Risk Assessment for Refueling Heavy-Duty Vehicles Using HyRAM+

The deployment of heavy-duty (HD) hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that are entering the market now is driving the need for expanded HD hydrogen refueling station infrastructure to meet demand. This expansion must prioritize safety and reliability, necessitating careful consideration of the associated risks. In this study, we use a light-duty (LD) hydrogen refueling station as a comparative tool to quantify the risks for a HD station, which is essentially a scaled-up version of a LD station.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hazard Analysis to Support Fusion Systems Safety Assessments

Reliability, safety, and performance are vital aspects of any nuclear operation. Fusion technology continues to grow in public, private, and research interest, and coupled with rapidly growing energy needs, fusion technology research is poised for fast progress. The development of a Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) is seen as stepping stone for demonstrating long-cycle fusion. Naturally, such operation requires systems that are available, reliable, and safe. This work provides a novel demonstration of systems theory coupled with traditional hazard analysis to provide insights into the risk priority of components and systems found within the FNSF. The results of this work are a set of identified hazards that should be considered for the risk-informed design and development of the FNSF.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reliability Assessment of Solid-State Circuit Breakers (CRADA CRD-21-21469, Project 4 Final Report)

Growth in power requirements and the complexity of emerging distribution systems are creating the need for new solid-state products for many applications. The qualification requirements, testing standards and life-cycle management practices of solid-state devices used in protection applications is not established. The project will leverage newly developed accelerated testing capabilities design specifically for protection applications to generate large data sets that will enable advanced digital techniques for data analysis and embedded health monitoring.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Performance Assessment of OpenMP Compilers Targeting NVIDIA V100 GPUs

Heterogeneous systems are becoming increasingly prevalent. In order to exploit the rich compute resources of such systems, robust programming models are needed for application developers to seamlessly migrate legacy code from today’s systems to tomorrow’s. Over the past decade and more, directives have been established as one of the promising paths to tackle programmatic challenges on emerging systems. This work focuses on applying and demonstrating OpenMP offloading directives on five proxy applications. We observe that the performance varies widely from one compiler to the other; a crucial aspect of our work is reporting best practices to application developers who use OpenMP offloading compilers. While some issues can be worked around by the developer, there are other issues that must be reported to the compiler vendors. By restructuring OpenMP offloading directives, we gain an 18x speedup for the su3 proxy application on NERSC’s Cori system when using the Clang compiler, and a 15.7x speedup by switching max reductions to add reductions in the laplace mini-app when using the Cray-llvm compiler on Cori.

Davis, Josh↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Guideline for the Assessment of Uniaxial Creep and Creep-Fatigue Data and Models

Of primary concern to FE practitioners is a determination of which constitutive models are the “best”, capable of reproducing the mechanisms expected in an intended design accurately; as well as what experimental datasets are proper or “best” to use for fitting the constitutive parameters needed for the model(s) of interest. In addition, the inherent uncertainty in experiments and the repeatability and stability of extrapolations (for long-lived FE components) is a major concern. The goal of this project is to develop a guideline for the assessment of uniaxial creep and creep-fatigue data and models. The research objectives are RO1) develop an aggregated database of creep and creep-fatigue data for P91 steel and 316 stainless steel and perform a systematic assessment of the uncertainty and integrity of the datasets. RO2) employ the database to benchmark existing creep and creep-fatigue models to evaluate the model’s ability to predict standard and nonstandard boundary conditions.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

WBS 1.2.3.405 - Life Cycle Assessment of Storage Technologies

Recent commitments by the Biden administration have established targets to achieve a net-zero energy system by 2050. Meeting these targets will spur a rapid transition to clean energy technologies and a commensurate need to develop and deploy energy storage technologies at scale. Pumped Storage Hydro (PSH) is expected to be part of this solution because its ability to provide grid flexibility and stability and enable the dispatching of disparate variable renewable energy technologies. Despite PSH being a mature technology with a history of deployment dating back several decades, there is very little information on the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of PSH as compared to other storage technologies. The objective of this project is to perform a full lifecycle assessment (LCA) of new PSH projects in the U.S. This LCA includes all project phases (resource extraction, construction, operation, maintenance, end-of-life). The functional unit for this study is 1 kWh electricity delivered by system to grid substation connection point and the estimated lifetime for our base case is 80 years. Data used in this study are based on over 30 potential PSH projects that are in preliminary planning phases and are represent a wide range of potential closed-loop PSH systems in terms of location, technology, and capacity. The project approach, data sources, and modeling assumptions have been informed by a technical review committee of stakeholders that include experts from academia, national and international government, industry, and utilities. The GHGs and energy return on investment (EROI) from PSH will be compared to other storage technologies (e.g., stationary battery storage). Results from this project will improve the PSH community's understanding of the environmental impacts and sustainability of new PSH projects and how PSH compares to other storage technologies. The approach used in this project relies on open-source programming. The analysis framework (source code and data) and will be made publicly available at the end of the project. In addition to reporting results for the base case, we will perform rigorous sensitivity analysis to identify the major drivers, understand impacts of different configurations, and future energy markets. Results from this project will be published in a suitable journal.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Survey Results from Advanced Reactor Industry Domain Experts on Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction Analysis Software Verification and Validation

The seismic load case has a significant impact on the design and cost of nuclear power plants. Given the need to substantially reduce cost, advanced reactor designers are looking to leverage numerical tools that enable seismic analysis of an integrated vessel/support/structure/soil system. Modern nonlinear analysis tools provide a solution, capturing dynamic coupling between components (including soil-structure interaction (SSI)) concurrent with nonlinear behavior in one or more parts of the system. Although these methods have a rich history of technical development and implementation, software quality assurance (SQA) following nuclear industry standards remains a significant burden for those wishing to adopt such methods for advanced reactor design and licensing. To reduce the SQA burden, this project will develop the guidance for SQA verification and validation (V&V) of coupled nonlinear SSI analysis tools, to include a test matrix of software features and test problems to support commercial grade dedication (CGD). The guidance is intended to be technology-neutral: supporting designers of all advanced reactors. To maximize the value of the project to reactor designers, the project team performed focused surveys of and interviews with advanced reactor designers. Additionally, the project surveyed members of the broader industry involved in reactor design and licensing. The aggregated industry feedback consists of written survey responses, live polling responses, focused interviews, and informal feedback provided after outreach presentations, collectively referred to as “survey results”. Herein, the survey results are reported, reviewed, and assessed to inform follow-on project activities. The survey results confirmed the familiarity of the industry with the coupled nonlinear SSI analysis. They also affirm the project need based upon the expressed intent to (1) incorporate nonlinear features and (2) pursue the coupled nonlinear SSI analysis to reduce seismic demands and construction costs. All reactor designers indicated their intent to incorporate two or more nonlinear features, and all reactor designer respondents opined that the coupled nonlinear SSI analysis would allow for the optimization of the reactor design and construction. However, the programmatic challenges, whether real or perceived, present a significant barrier to reactor designers. The barrier most commonly identified by the reactor designer population was regulatory risk, with 70% citing this as a reason not to pursue the approach. The perceived regulatory risk identified by the reactor designers underscores the importance of regulator engagement and dialogue in this project. Additionally, half of the reactor designers identified cost and lack of guidance as a deterrent. The survey results also provide insights to tailor specific aspects of the guidance document and test matrix. The project plans to prepare both a formal referenceable guidance document and a collaborative, web-based test matrix and problem set. The project will focus on more complete test problem definitions for the prioritized nonlinear features over shallower problem descriptions for a larger set of features. The nonlinearities prioritized as high based upon survey feedback include fluid-structure interaction and seismic isolation and energy dissipation devices. The nonlinearities prioritized as intermediate include nonlinear geomaterials, nonlinear concrete, nonlinear steel, and interface/contact nonlinearity. Deep embedment and the associated nonlinear phenomena are assigned the lowest priority based upon survey feedback.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Economic, Greenhouse Gas, and Resource Assessment for Fuel and Protein Production from Microalgae: 2022 Algae Harmonization Update

This report presents an updated "harmonization study" documenting the collaborative analysis of microalgae cultivation and conversion to fuels and products. Four national laboratory modeling teams reconvened to investigate the resource, economic, and environmental sustainability implications of integrated systems encompassing large-scale algae farms and conversion biorefineries. Relative to prior harmonization analyses conducted by these partners, the present effort focuses on more near-term deployment potential based on the use of nutrient-replete, high-protein algal biomass compositions (more readily achievable today without sacrificing cultivation productivity), though this also incurs challenges in lower fuel yields and accordingly higher costs and carbon intensities for the overall integrated systems. Additionally, the present assessment adds further granularity around carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sourcing and transport via carbon capture of nearby point sources, as well as handling of high-saline cultivation media and resultant blowdown/disposal processing. Finally, this assessment focuses on conversion opportunities to produce both fuel (prioritizing sustainable aviation fuel, in this case via hydrothermal liquefaction) and protein products for the food and feed markets, recognizing growing needs for such products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-dimensional resilience: A quantitative exploration of disease outcomes and economic, political, and social resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic in six countries

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted a need for better understanding of countries’ vulnerability and resilience to not only pandemics but also disasters, climate change, and other systemic shocks. A comprehensive characterization of vulnerability can inform efforts to improve infrastructure and guide disaster response in the future. In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework for studying countries’ vulnerability and resilience to incident disasters across multiple dimensions of society. To illustrate this methodology, we leverage the rich data landscape surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic to characterize observed resilience for several countries (USA, Brazil, India, Sweden, New Zealand, and Israel) as measured by pandemic impacts across a variety of social, economic, and political domains. We also assess how observed responses and outcomes (i.e., resilience) of the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with pre-pandemic characteristics or vulnerabilities, including (1) prior risk for adverse pandemic outcomes due to population density and age and (2) the systems in place prior to the pandemic that may impact the ability to respond to the crisis, including health infrastructure and economic capacity. Our work demonstrates the importance of viewing vulnerability and resilience in a multi-dimensional way, where a country’s resources and outcomes related to vulnerability and resilience can differ dramatically across economic, political, and social domains. This work also highlights key gaps in our current understanding about vulnerability and resilience and a need for data-driven, context-specific assessments of disaster vulnerability in the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗