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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trajectory Planning for Mission Survivability of Autonomous Vehicles in Moderately to Extremely Uncertain Environments

Trajectory planning is a particularly challenging task for autonomous vehicles when the uncertainties in their operating environment cannot be characterized statistically. In this paper, we propose a receding horizon control strategy with novel trajectory planning policies that enable dynamic updating of the planned trajectories of autonomous vehicles operating in environments where potential conflicts are, from a statistical perspective, either partially known or completely unknown. The proposed policies utilize two metrics: (1) the number of feasible trajectories; and (2) the robustness of the feasible trajectories. We measure the effectiveness of the suggested policies in terms of mission survivability, which is defined as the probability that the primary mission is accomplished or, if that is not possible, the vehicle lands safely at an alternative site. We show that a linear combination of both metrics is an effective objective function when there is a mix of partially known and unknown uncertainties. When the operating environment is dominated by unknown disturbances, maximizing the number of feasible trajectories results in the highest mission survivability. These findings have significant implications for achieving safe aviation. autonomy.

Aviation autonomy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Warming Reduces the Efficacy of Wet Conditions to Moderate Extreme Heat and Atmospheric Aridity Across the Central Plains

In the literature, dry land surface conditions possess a well-established association with extreme heat and high atmospheric aridity, especially in regions that experience strong land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, few studies have examined whether global warming will impact the ability of wet conditions to constrain high temperatures and atmospheric aridity occurrences. Here we investigate how wet conditions, which we define using precipitation and soil moisture, constrain high temperature and high vapor pressure deficit during the warm season over the Central Plains in North America at different global warming levels (0-3 degrees K). Using a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, we show that absolute changes in the maximum temperature distribution outweigh the historical cooling effect of high precipitation or soil moisture conditions, reducing the probability of non-extreme maximum temperatures under global warming. Strikingly, the conditional likelihood of non-extreme maximum temperatures falls from 97-98% at baseline conditions to 50-58% at 1 degree of global warming. Once 2 degrees of warming is reached, there is very little probability of constraining extreme maximum temperatures. On the other hand, high precipitation and high soil moisture are able to better retain the ability to constrain concurrent high vapor pressure deficit conditions – moving from 99% at baseline conditions to 81-91% at 1 degree of warming and 26-42% at 2 degrees of warming. With our results, we find that the extent of this retention is dependent on how individual models represent relative changes in the VPD distribution as temperatures warm. Overall, our results highlight the growing vulnerability of the Central North American region to warmer temperatures and drier atmospheric conditions, even during periods of high precipitation and soil moisture.

Extreme heat↗
NASA NTRS2023

First VLTI/GRAVITY Observations of HIP 65426 b: Evidence for a Low or Moderate Orbital Eccentricity

Giant exoplanets have been directly imaged over orders of magnitude of orbital separations, prompting theoretical and observational investigations of their formation pathways. In this paper, we present new VLTI/GRAVITY astrometric data of HIP 65426 b, a cold, giant exoplanet which is a particular challenge for most formation theories at a projected separation of 92 au from its primary. Leveraging GRAVITY's astrometric precision, we present an updated eccentricity posterior that disfavors large eccentricities. The eccentricity posterior is still prior dependent, and we extensively interpret and discuss the limits of the posterior constraints presented here. We also perform updated spectral comparisons with self-consistent forward-modeled spectra, finding a best-fit ExoREM model with solar metallicity and C/O = 0.6. An important caveat is that it is difficult to estimate robust errors on these values, which are subject to interpolation errors as well as potentially missing model physics. Taken together, the orbital and atmospheric constraints paint a preliminary picture of formation inconsistent with scattering after disk dispersal. Further work is needed to validate this interpretation. Analysis code used to perform this work is available on GitHub: https://github.com/sblunt/hip65426.

Sarah Blunt↗