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NASA NTRS2012

Effects of Subscale Size and Shape on Global Energy Dissipation in a Multiscale Model of a Fiber-Reinforced Composite Exhibiting Post-Peak Strain Softening Using Abaqus and FEAMAC

A mesh objective crack band model is implemented in the generalized method of cells (GMC) micromechanics model to predict failure of a composite repeating unit cell (RUC). The micromechanics calculations are achieved using the MAC/GMC core engine within the ImMAC suite of micromechanics codes, developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The microscale RUC is linked to a macroscale Abaqus/Standard finite element model using the FEAMAC multiscale framework (included in the ImMAC suite). The effects of the relationship between the characteristic length of the finite element and the size of the microscale RUC on the total energy dissipation of the multiscale model are investigated. A simple 2-D composite square subjected to uniaxial tension is used to demonstrate the effects of scaling the dimensions of the RUC such that the length of the sides of the RUC are equal to the characteristic length of the finite element. These results are compared to simulations where the size of the RUC is fixed, independent of the element size. Simulations are carried out for a variety of mesh densities and element shapes, including square and triangular. Results indicate that a consistent size and shape must be used to yield preserve energy dissipation across the scales.

Pineda, Evan, J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives within the context of facilitating transformations to enable sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts and disruptions. ISIMIP uses community-agreed sets of scenarios with standardized climate variables and socioeconomic projections as inputs for projecting future risks and associated uncertainties, within and across sectors. The results are consistent multi-model assessments of sectoral risks and opportunities that enable studies that integrate across sectors, providing support for implementation of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Regional-scale risk models↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tracking Magnetic Perturbations, dB/dt and Geomagnetic Indices for Geospace Storms on a Routine Basis at the CCMC

The first comprehensive assessment of geospace model skill to specify magnetic perturbations (delta-B) on the ground and their time derivative (dB/dt) was performed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center starting in 2010. This study resulted in the addition of the Space Weather Modling Framework to the suite of operational models run by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Since then, magnetic pertubations have been made available on a larger scale for Run-on-Request simulations in geospace at the CCMC. We will demonstrate recent additions to the suite of analysis tools and model results including magnetic perturbations at more stations and on a grid of positions from both, original model outputs (SWMF using preset run configurations) and post-processed calculations using CalcDeltaB and their analysis and visualization using the open-source Kamodo data access and analysis suite and the Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events using Library tools (CAMEL) application.

Lutz Rastaetter↗

NASA NTRS2017

Aeroelastic Uncertainty Quantification Studies Using the S4T Wind Tunnel Model

This paper originates from the joint efforts of an aeroelastic study team in the Applied Vehicle Technology Panel from NATO Science and Technology Organization, with the Task Group number AVT-191, titled "Application of Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification to Military Vehicle Design." We present aeroelastic uncertainty quantification studies using the SemiSpan Supersonic Transport wind tunnel model at the NASA Langley Research Center. The aeroelastic study team decided treat both structural and aerodynamic input parameters as uncertain and represent them as samples drawn from statistical distributions, propagating them through aeroelastic analysis frameworks. Uncertainty quantification processes require many function evaluations to asses the impact of variations in numerous parameters on the vehicle characteristics, rapidly increasing the computational time requirement relative to that required to assess a system deterministically. The increased computational time is particularly prohibitive if high-fidelity analyses are employed. As a remedy, the Istanbul Technical University team employed an Euler solver in an aeroelastic analysis framework, and implemented reduced order modeling with Polynomial Chaos Expansion and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition to perform the uncertainty propagation. The NASA team chose to reduce the prohibitive computational time by employing linear solution processes. The NASA team also focused on determining input sample distributions.

Nikbay, Melike↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Situ Resource Utilization Modeling of a Lunar Water Processing System

A key element of achieving a sustained surface presence, such as defined in NASA’s Artemis plan, is In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). ISRU is the practice of using local resources to provide mission consumables that reduce system launch mass requirements, and regenerate resources (chiefly, water and oxygen) for propulsion and life support supporting both Lunar and Martian missions. ISRU systems require multiple complex processes, such as excavation, chemical reactors, and electrolysis subsystems that must operate in harmony to optimize the overall system process from beginning to end. The Mission Analysis and Integration Tool (MAIT) was previously developed with MATLAB in FY22 to connect individual subsystem models into a customized, flexible framework for the purpose of technology downselect, optimization, and end-to-end process planning. Beginning in FY24, MAIT was updated and became the capital program in the Systems Engineering and Integration (SE&I) ISRU Modeling and Analysis (SIMA) project. Prior work was leveraged and evolved using MATLAB/Simulink due to its ability to communicate with a vast number of other programming languages and makes up the backbone of data flow between inputs and outputs to the subsystem models. MAIT initially evaluated a suite of ISRU-related technologies, including the water processing Lunar Auger Dryer for ISRU (LADI) system with integrated upstream excavation and downstream electrolysis subsystems. With individual models consolidated, the MAIT tool generated over 5,000 cases during its first round of parametric sweeps on the water processing architecture at multiple production targets; the system analysis produced valuable insight into the optimal LADI geometry that minimized energy demands, estimated effects to cold trap size and radiator requirements, and calculated the power dynamics of the electrolysis unit and liquid oxygen storage volume. Additional efforts are being made to demonstrate the ability to scale ISRU technologies supporting the Space Technology Mission Directorate’s (STMD) commercialization strategy and increase the MAIT software capability. Work is ongoing to handle a wide array of ISRU system models beyond the Lunar environment, e.g. production of propellant for a Martian lander.

Avery Carlson↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Situ Resource Utilization Modeling of a Lunar Water Processing System

Avery Carlson↗

NASA NTRS2022

Hybrid Model Based Approaches for Systems Health Management and Prognostics

This is a previously approved and published presentation. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Present achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. In principle, data-driven approaches can replace expensive experimental test-setups as well as reduce the number of simulations needed to explore, e.g., the parametric space of a multi-parameter model. Nonetheless, the limitations of pure data-driven methods came to light rather quickly, at least for some industries. In many industrial applications, data acquisition is costly, and the volume of data that can be collected does not satisfy the requirements for effective model training and cross-validation. Therefore, some recent works in the area of machine learning is focusing on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, thus mitigating the drawbacks of the two approaches and emphasizing respective advantages. Partial physical knowledge of the problem can aid the learning process by “guiding” the algorithm towards efficient solutions that satisfy the physics driving the system behavior. The result is a hybrid modeling approach combining physical knowledge as well data-driven methods to develop a unified hybrid approach. A hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety-critical systems is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.

Prognostics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Framework for Optimization-Based ISRU Tool Design Using Discrete Element Modeling

Novel robotic excavation technologies are needed to perform in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) tasks at levels required to sustain a long-term presence on the lunar surface. Developing and testing multiple iterations of functional hardware is time and cost prohibitive, thus slowing down the pace of progress and delaying humanity’s settlement of the Moon. High-fidelity, physics-based simulation can reduce the time and effort required to develop and deploy robotic systems [1]. We have adopted this approach to create high-fidelity models of robotic test hardware to enable rapid virtual design and optimization of excavation technologies [2]. Such models can leverage modern computational tools like Discrete Element Method (DEM) simulations that can be coupled with automated design approaches like topology optimization to reduce the amount of prototyping and physical testing needed to realize useful tools.

ISRU↗

NASA NTRS1992

Proposed evaluation framework for assessing operator performance with multisensor displays

Despite aggressive work on the development of sensor fusion algorithms and techniques, no formal evaluation procedures have been proposed. Based on existing integration models in the literature, an evaluation framework is developed to assess an operator's ability to use multisensor, or sensor fusion, displays. The proposed evaluation framework for evaluating the operator's ability to use such systems is a normative approach: The operator's performance with the sensor fusion display can be compared to the models' predictions based on the operator's performance when viewing the original sensor displays prior to fusion. This allows for the determination as to when a sensor fusion system leads to: 1) poorer performance than one of the original sensor displays (clearly an undesirable system in which the fused sensor system causes some distortion or interference); 2) better performance than with either single sensor system alone, but at a sub-optimal (compared to the model predictions) level; 3) optimal performance (compared to model predictions); or, 4) super-optimal performance, which may occur if the operator were able to use some highly diagnostic 'emergent features' in the sensor fusion display, which were unavailable in the original sensor displays. An experiment demonstrating the usefulness of the proposed evaluation framework is discussed.

Foyle, David C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic failure assessment with application to solid rocket motors

A quantitative methodology is being developed for assessment of risk of failure of solid rocket motors. This probabilistic methodology employs best available engineering models and available information in a stochastic framework. The framework accounts for incomplete knowledge of governing parameters, intrinsic variability, and failure model specification error. Earlier case studies have been conducted on several failure modes of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. Work in progress on application of this probabilistic approach to large solid rocket boosters such as the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor for the Space Shuttle is described. Failure due to debonding has been selected as the first case study for large solid rocket motors (SRMs) since it accounts for a significant number of historical SRM failures. Impact of incomplete knowledge of governing parameters and failure model specification errors is expected to be important.

Jan, Darrell L.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Space Propulsion Design and Analysis

This software provides an improved methodology for predicting launcher base pressure and heat loads for RSRM (Reusable Solid Rocket Motor) launchers by accounting for complex anisotropic stress/strains and variable turbulent Prandtl and Schmidt numbers. A "building block" approach to turbulence model development, and validation has been applied for improved missile/launcher base region analysis. Modifications to existing kappa - epsilon turbulence models and application of scalar variance models are incorporated into a RANS-based method for aeropropulsive flow modeling, directly related to base flow methodology. (RANS stands for Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes.) The models are applied in a RANS solver framework and can improve analysis of other complex flow fields. The enhanced models provide a more accurate predictive capability for improving the design and analysis of RSRM launcher configuration. The kappa - epsilon model enhancements have been shown to improve the capability for predicting turbulence effects in base blow environments. The scalar variance models have been assessed over a wide range of flow configurations to improve prediction of turbulent scalar mixing.

Sinha, Neeraj↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dose Error Correction Using Simulation Extrapolation for Community Noise Dose-Response Modeling

The objective of this work is to provide a framework to account and correct for dose error in dose-response modeling due to measurement uncertainty. Error in noise measurements, especially in the case of limited monitoring locations in a community, can lead to an attenuation or misestimation of parameters in dose-response models. This error can result in overpredicted annoyance at lower doses and underpredicted annoyance at higher doses. Simulated data in the present work are based on previous NASA community studies and incorporate a notional design for future studies with the X-59 aircraft. Several populations of different annoyance response sensitivities are included. Simulation extrapolation (SIMEX, Cook and Stefanski 1994) is used to correct for the dose error in a simple, fully pooled logistic regression. Results indicate the negative impact of attenuation is greatly diminished for all amounts of dose error considered, regardless of a population’s annoyance sensitivity. Therefore, SIMEX can help produce a more accurate dose-response relationship.

SIMEX↗

NASA NTRS2016

Multiscale Static Analysis of Notched and Unnotched Laminates Using the Generalized Method of Cells

The generalized method of cells (GMC) is demonstrated to be a viable micromechanics tool for predicting the deformation and failure response of laminated composites, with and without notches, subjected to tensile and compressive static loading. Given the axial [0], transverse [90], and shear [+45/-45] response of a carbon/epoxy (IM7/977-3) system, the unnotched and notched behavior of three multidirectional layups (Layup 1: [0,45,90,-45](sub 2S), Layup 2: [0,60,0](sub 3S), and Layup 3: [30,60,90,-30, -60](sub 2S)) are predicted under both tensile and compressive static loading. Matrix nonlinearity is modeled in two ways. The first assumes all nonlinearity is due to anisotropic progressive damage of the matrix only, which is modeled, using the multiaxial mixed-mode continuum damage model (MMCDM) within GMC. The second utilizes matrix plasticity coupled with brittle final failure based on the maximum principle strain criteria to account for matrix nonlinearity and failure within the Finite Element Analysis--Micromechanics Analysis Code (FEAMAC) software multiscale framework. Both MMCDM and plasticity models incorporate brittle strain- and stress-based failure criteria for the fiber. Upon satisfaction of these criteria, the fiber properties are immediately reduced to a nominal value. The constitutive response for each constituent (fiber and matrix) is characterized using a combination of vendor data and the axial, transverse, and shear responses of unnotched laminates. Then, the capability of the multiscale methodology is assessed by performing blind predictions of the mentioned notched and unnotched composite laminates response under tensile and compressive loading. Tabulated data along with the detailed results (i.e., stress-strain curves as well as damage evolution states at various ratios of strain to failure) for all laminates are presented.

GMC↗

NASA NTRS2012

Shielded-Twisted-Pair Cable Model for Chafe Fault Detection via Time-Domain Reflectometry

This report details the development, verification, and validation of an innovative physics-based model of electrical signal propagation through shielded-twisted-pair cable, which is commonly found on aircraft and offers an ideal proving ground for detection of small holes in a shield well before catastrophic damage occurs. The accuracy of this model is verified through numerical electromagnetic simulations using a commercially available software tool. The model is shown to be representative of more realistic (analytically intractable) cable configurations as well. A probabilistic framework is developed for validating the model accuracy with reflectometry data obtained from real aircraft-grade cables chafed in the laboratory.

Schuet, Stefan R.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Model Checking JAVA Programs Using Java Pathfinder

This paper describes a translator called JAVA PATHFINDER from JAVA to PROMELA, the "programming language" of the SPIN model checker. The purpose is to establish a framework for verification and debugging of JAVA programs based on model checking. This work should be seen in a broader attempt to make formal methods applicable "in the loop" of programming within NASA's areas such as space, aviation, and robotics. Our main goal is to create automated formal methods such that programmers themselves can apply these in their daily work (in the loop) without the need for specialists to manually reformulate a program into a different notation in order to analyze the program. This work is a continuation of an effort to formally verify, using SPIN, a multi-threaded operating system programmed in Lisp for the Deep-Space 1 spacecraft, and of previous work in applying existing model checkers and theorem provers to real applications.

Havelund, Klaus↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) Version 2: New Activities and Future Plans

A remote sensing-based system has been developed to characterize the potential for rainfall-triggered landslides across the globe in near real-time. The Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model uses a decision tree framework to combine a static susceptibility map derived from information on slope, rock characteristics, forest loss, distance to fault zones and distance to road networks with satellite precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Since 2016, the LHASA model has been providing near real-time and retrospective estimates of potential landslide activity. Results of this work are available at https://landslides.nasa.gov. In order to advance LHASA’s capabilities to characterize landslide hazards and impacts dynamically, we have implemented a new approach that leverages machine learning, new parameters, and new inventories. LHASA 2.0 uses the XGBoost machine learning model to bring in dynamic variables as well as additional static variables to better represent landslide hazard globally. Global rainfall forecasts are also being evaluated to provide a 1-3 day forecast of potential landslide activity. Additional factors such as recent seismicity and burned areas are also being considered to represent the preconditioning or changing interactions with subsequent rainfall over affected areas. A series of parameters are being tested within this structure using NASA’s Global Landslide Catalog as well as many other event-based and multi-temporal inventories mapped by the project team or provided by project partners. In addition to estimates of landslide hazard, LHASA Version 2 will incorporate dynamic estimates of exposure including population, roads and infrastructure to highlight the potential impacts that rainfall-triggered landslides. The ultimate goal of LHASA Version 2.0 is to approximate the relative probabilities of landslide hazard and exposure across different space and time scales to inform hazard assessment retrospectively over the past 20 years, in near real-time, and in the future. In addition to the hazard. This presentation will outline the new activities for LHASA Version 2.0 and present some next steps for this system.

Dalia Kirschbaum↗

NASA NTRS2020

Atmospheric Carbon Cycle Dynamics Over the Above Domain: an Integrated Analysis Using Aircraft Observations (Arctic-CA) and Model Simulations (GEOS)

The Arctic Carbon Atmospheric Profiles (Arctic-CAP) project conducted six airborne surveys of Alaska and northwestern Canada between April and November 2017 to capture the spatial and temporal gradients of northern high-latitude carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and carbon monoxide (CO) as part of NASA's Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). The Arctic-CAP sampling strategy involved acquiring vertical profiles of CO2, CH4 and CO from the surface to 5 km altitude at 25 sites around the ABoVE domain on a 4- to 6-week time interval. We observed vertical gradients of CO2, CH4 and CO that vary by eco-region and duration of the sampling period, which spanned the majority of the seasonal cycle. All Arctic-CAP measurements were compared to a global simulation using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling system. Comparisons with GEOS simulations of atmospheric CO2, CH4 and CO highlight the potential of these multi-species observations to inform improvements in surface flux estimates and the representation of atmospheric transport. GEOS simulations provide estimates of the near surface average CO2 and CH4 enhancements that are well correlated with aircraft observations (R=0.74 and R=0.60 respectively), suggesting that GEOS has reasonable fidelity over this complex and heterogeneous region. This model-data comparison over the ABoVE domain reveals that while current state-of-the-art models and flux estimates are able to capture broadscale spatial and temporal patterns in near-surface CO2 and CH4 concentrations, more work is needed to resolve fine-scale flux features that are observed. The study also provides a framework for benchmarking a global model at regional scales, which is needed to use climate models as tools to investigate high-latitude carbon-climate feedbacks.

C Sweeney↗

NASA NTRS2022

L1 Adaptive Control with Switched Reference Models: Application to Learn-to-Fly

Learn-to-Fly (L2F) is a new framework that aims to replace the traditional iterative development paradigm for aerial vehicles with a combination of real-time aerodynamic modeling, guidance, and learning control. To ensure safe learning of the vehicle dynamics on the fly, this paper presents an L1 adaptive control (L1AC) based scheme, which actively estimates and compensates for the discrepancy between the intermediately learned dynamics and the actual dynamics. First, to incorporate the periodic update of the learned model within the L2F framework, this paper extends the L1AC architecture to handle a switched reference system subject to unknown time-varying parameters and disturbances. The paper also includes analysis of both transient and steady-state performance of the L1AC architecture in the presence of non-zero initialization error for the state predictor. Second, the paper presents how the proposed L1AC scheme is integrated into the L2F framework, including its interaction with the baseline controller and the real-time modeling module. Finally, flight tests on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) validate the efficacy of the proposed control and learning scheme.

Steven Snyder↗