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At least 901 records · Page 50

Infrastructure-Relevant Storms of the Last Century

Historical extreme storm events are widely used to make Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates, which form the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure safety. Past studies suggest that extreme precipitation processes can be sensitive to land surface feedback and the planetary warming trend, which makes the future safety of large infrastructures questionable given the projected changes in land cover and temperature in the coming decades. In this study, a numerical modeling framework was employed to reconstruct 10 extreme storms over CONUS that occurred during the past 100 years, which are used by the engineering profession for PMP estimation for large infrastructures such as dams. Results show that the correlation in daily rainfall for such reconstruction can range between 0.4 and 0.7, while the correlation for maximum 3-day accumulation (a standard period used in infrastructure design) is always above 0.5 for post-1948 storms. This suggests that current numerical modeling and reanalysis data allow us to reconstruct big storms after 1948 with acceptable accuracy. For storms prior to 1948, however, reconstruction of storms shows inconsistency with observations. Our study indicates that numerical modeling and data may not have advanced to a sufficient level to understand how such old storms (pre-1948) may behave in future warming and land cover conditions. However, the infrastructure community can certainly rely on the use of model reconstructed extreme storms of the 1948-present period to reassess safety of our large water infrastructures under assumed changes in temperature and land cover.

Chen, Xiaodong↗

Large Ensemble Particle Filter for Spatial Climate Reconstructions Using a Linear Inverse Model

Proxy records that document the last 2000 years of climate provide evidence for the wide range of the natural climate variability from inter-annual to secular timescales not captured by the short window of recent direct observations. Assessing climate models ability to reproduce such natural variations is crucial to understand climate sensitivity and impacts of future climate change. Paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) offers a powerful way to extend the short instrumental period by optimally combining the physics described by General Circulation Climate Models (GCMs) with information from available proxy records while taking into account their uncertainties. Here we present a new PDA approach based on a sequential importance resampling (SIR) Particle filter (PF) that uses Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) as an emulator of several CMIP-class GCMs. We examine in a perfect-model framework the skill of the various LIMs to forecast the dynamics of the surface temperatures and provide spatial field reconstructions over the last millennium in a SIR PF. Our results show that the LIMs allow for skillful ensemble forecasts at 1-year lead-time based on GCMs dynamical knowledge with best prediction in the tropics and the North Atlantic. The PDA further provides a set of physically consistent spatial fields allowing robust uncertainty quantification related to climate models biases and proxy spatial sampling. Our results indicate that the LIM yields dynamical memory improving climate variability reconstructions and support the use of the LIM as a GCM-emulator in real reconstruction to propagate large ensembles of particles at low cost in SIR PF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated Multiscale Model for Design of Robust 3D Solid-state Lithium Batteries

In FY23, we successfully established the multiscale modeling framework for probing the effects of materials microstructure on cell performance of 3D solid-state batteries. The framework covers physicochemical processes co-evolving at the atomistic and microstructure scales. Our simulations revealed the mechanism of initial interfacial degradation, formation of secondary phases, and the structure-property relationship for ion transport and mechanical stability at the interface. In addition, we also established the microstructure-performance relationships by performing sensitivity tests of various microstructure features and extracting their impact on cell performance during charge-discharge cycles. We have successfully applied our multiscale, multiphysics modeling capability to common electrode and electrolyte materials that are of interests to VTO and the experimental teams within the US-Germany collaboration. The insights we obtained from these simulations provide valuable design principles to optimize materials properties for advanced 3D solid-state batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The "PVLib" of Degradation: PVDeg

The Photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs through higher-efficiency cells, improved module designs, and improvements in durability. This leads to the use of new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, and not always with a sufficient amount of durability testing. To help drive down costs there is a desire to create modules that will last for up to 50 years of service life. To accomplish this, every degradation mode and mechanism must be identified and either eliminated or otherwise mitigated. This involves the extrapolation of laboratory results to the field conditions. There is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. While the basic equations used to model degradation are sometimes very simple, the full analysis involves calculations are cumbersome but ubiquitous for many degradation processes. A simplified, modeling framework to accomplish these repetitive processes will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this talk, we will describe our progress creating the open-source tool PVDeg. This tool can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. PVDeg simplifies many of the common foundational computational operations for obtaining meteorological data and using it to generate a model of the PV deployment. This prediction tool repository also contains various degradation models as well as a library of material parameters suitable for estimating the durability assessment of materials and components. We use an integration pipeline approach that allows us to leverage weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database, and other weather sources, to perform geospatial degradation analysis in the US and worldwide. We hope to become a repository that can be used for weathering and degradation analysis for various applications beyond the PV industry. During the talk, we will provide the PVPMC attendees the opportunity to interact with the tool via a Google Collab tutorial they can run on their phones or laptops.

durability↗

Simulation of the 23 July 2012 Extreme Space Weather Event: What if This Extremely Rare CME Was Earth Directed?

Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units (approx. 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the SpaceWeather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME.We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

SPACE WEATHER↗

Time-dependent-bases with local CUR decomposition method for accelerating turbulent combustion simulations

Here, this study presents a novel reduced-order modeling framework, Time-Dependent Bases with Local CUR decomposition (TDB-L-CUR), designed to efficiently and accurately approximate the species transport equations in reacting flow simulations. The method extends the existing TDB-CUR approach for chemically reacting flows (Jung et al. Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Engrg. 437 (2025) 117758), which leverages matrix decomposition techniques to form a global-in-space, time-dependent low-dimensional manifold. While TDB-CUR performs well in homogeneous systems, it may be less well-suited to spatially heterogeneous systems such as turbulent flames, where higher-rank approximations are typically required. The proposed TDB-L-CUR framework introduces two methodological extensions to the baseline approach. First, it applies unsupervised clustering to partition the physical domain into distinct regions, enabling spatially localized manifold construction, thereby reducing the rank required for the reduced-order representation. Second, it incorporates a computational singular perturbation (CSP)-based scheme for identifying and penalizing fast species, allowing for spatio-temporally adaptive mitigation of chemical stiffness. The proposed framework is validated on a hierarchy of test cases, including a one-dimensional premixed flame, a two-dimensional nonpremixed ignition case with vortex interaction, and a three-dimensional turbulent premixed flame. TDB-L-CUR significantly improves accuracy over TDB-CUR while further reducing computational cost. The fully on-the-fly formulation of TDB-L-CUR (i.e., requiring no offline training or prior knowledge) makes it a robust and scalable tool for reduced-order modeling of reactive flows.

Local manifold↗

A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

Numerical cloud resolving models (CRMs), which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that CRMs agree with observations in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and regional scale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a szrper-parameterization or multi-scale modeling -framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign can provide initial conditions as well as validation through utilizing the Earth Satellite simulators. At Goddard, we have developed a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics. The modeling system consists a coupled GCM-CRM (or MMF); a state-of-the-art weather research forecast model (WRF) and a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model). In these models, the same microphysical schemes (2ICE, several 3ICE), radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and surface models are applied. In addition, a comprehensive unified Earth Satellite simulator has been developed at GSFC, which is designed to fully utilize the multi-scale modeling system. A brief review of the multi-scale modeling system with unified physics/simulator and examples is presented in this article.

Tao, W.K.↗

Effective Lanthanide Diffusivity through U-Zr Metallic Fuel

Fuel-cladding chemical interaction (FCCI) is one of the main concerns for the performance of U-Zr metallic fuels. Although FCCI results in complex phase transformations and morphological changes in both the fuel and cladding sides of the interface, the formation of a brittle layer in the cladding side of the interface (sometimes referred to as wastage) has one of the most significant impacts on the cladding mechanical integrity. This brittle layer is associated with the formation of intermetallic compounds between the cladding constituents Fe, Cr and the lanthanide fission product species. The formation of this cladding wastage layer has been the focus of recent efforts to develop a mechanistic modeling framework, including production of lanthanides in the fuel, transport through the fuel to the fuel-cladding interface, and phase transformation to form intermetallic phases. To calculate the rate of transport of lanthanides through the fuel, a multi-scale computational approach has been used. Atomistic calculations have been performed to determine the diffusivities of Nd, the most prevalent lanthanide species, through the solid fuel matrix and along pore surfaces. These diffusivities have been used as input parameters for a mesoscale model to determine an effective diffusion coefficient that accounts for the formation of porosity, its interconnection, and infiltration with bond sodium from the fuel-cladding gap. The effective diffusivity has been used in engineering-scale simulations using the BISON fuel performance code, and BISON simulations have been compared to representative validation cases from the EBR-II reactor.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

U-net architected deep material network training with microstructure local field information

The Deep Material Network (DMN) has recently emerged as a powerful reduced-order modeling framework for simulating the mechanical response of heterogeneous materials such as composites. Unlike most data-driven approaches that directly learn a material’s response under prescribed loading, the DMN acts as a homogenization operator, learning the kinematic constraints and mechanical interactions of the underlying microstructure. However, traditional DMN training relies exclusively on homogenized effective properties derived from Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS), discarding the rich local field data that govern microstructural interactions. In this work, we extend the DMN framework to incorporate such local field information into the offline training process. Utilizing a U-Net architecture, we augment the DMN training objective to include the first and second statistical moments of the local stress fields obtained from linear DNS. This ensures that the learned network topology not only fits the effective stiffness but also accurately reflects the internal local stress and strain partitioning of the microstructure. The results confirm that supervising the localization process during training yields a superior surrogate model, reducing local prediction errors by an order of magnitude and significantly improving generalization to unseen nonlinear constitutive behaviors compared to traditional DMNs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Optimal charging scheduling and management for a fast-charging battery electric bus system

Herein we discuss how battery electric buses (BEBs) are rapidly being embraced by public transit agencies because of their environmental and economic benefits. To address the problems of limited driving range and time-consuming charging for BEBs, manufacturers have developed rapid on-route charging technology that utilizes typical layovers at terminals to charge buses in operation using high power. With on-route fast-charging, BEBs are as capable as their diesel counterparts in terms of range and operating time. However, on-route fast-charging makes it more challenging to schedule and manage charging events for a BEB system. First, on-route fast-charging may lead to high electricity power demand charges. Second, it may increase electricity energy charges because of charging that occurs during on-peak hours. Without careful charging scheduling and management, on-route fast-charging may significantly increase fuel costs and reduce the economic attractiveness of BEBs. The present study proposes a network modeling framework to optimize the charging scheduling and management for a fast-charging BEB system, effectively minimizing total charging costs. The charging schedule determines when to charge a BEB, while the charging management strategically controls the actual charging power. Charging costs include both electricity demand charges and energy charges. The charging scheduling and management problem is first formulated as a nonlinear nonconvex program with time-continuous variables. A discretizing method and a linear reformulation technique are then adopted to reformulate the model as a linear program, which can be easily solved using off-the-shelf solvers, even for large-scale problems. Finally, the model is demonstrated with extensive numerical studies based on two real-world bus networks. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can effectively determine the optimal charging scheduling and management for a fast-charging BEB system, which carries the potential for use in large-scale real-world bus networks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Synthetic modeling of soft x-ray emissivity for magnetic island analysis in LTX-β

We present a synthetic soft x-ray (SXR) forward-modeling framework that characterizes the emissivity structure of rotating magnetic islands in the Lithium Tokamak eXperiment-β across space and time. Magnetic islands associated with tearing modes produce modulations in line-integrated SXR brightness. Traditional tomographic methods struggle to resolve these structures in devices with limited sightlines, resulting in an under-determined inversion problem, or otherwise necessitate equilibrium reconstruction data, preventing their use in active control. Our approach removes this challenge by combining a fully three-dimensional ray-tracing model with a time-dependent emissivity prescription of a $m/n$ = 2/1 magnetic island. The model is validated through helical island geometry, rotation measured by magnetic diagnostics, and equilibrium constraints from PSI-Tri reconstructions. Synthetic brightness signals are generated for each photodiode sightline from a modeled emissivity profile and directly compared with experimental data from a tangential midplane SXR array. By fitting the synthetic diagnostic output to the observed brightness across time, we simultaneously infer key geometric parameters-such as island radial location, island width, and rotation frequency-without requiring full tomographic reconstruction, all with an average absolute deviation of less than 3%. This work demonstrates that forward modeling with a single tangential array can extract key island parameters in a spherical tokamak, providing a computationally efficient alternative to conventional SXR tomography and providing a pathway toward real-time magnetic-island characterization in future devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multiscale dynamics of charging and plating in graphite electrodes coupling operando microscopy and phase-field modelling

The phase separation dynamics in graphitic anodes significantly affects lithium plating propensity, which is the major degradation mechanism that impairs the safety and fast charge capabilities of automotive lithium-ion batteries. In this study, we present comprehensive investigation employing operando high-resolution optical microscopy combined with non-equilibrium thermodynamics implemented in a multi-dimensional (1D+1D to 3D) phase-field modeling framework to reveal the rate-dependent spatial dynamics of phase separation and plating in graphite electrodes. Here we visualize and provide mechanistic understanding of the multistage phase separation, plating, inter/intra-particle lithium exchange and plated lithium back-intercalation phenomena. A strong dependence of intra-particle lithiation heterogeneity on the particle size, shape, orientation, surface condition and C-rate at the particle level is observed, which leads to early onset of plating spatially resolved by a 3D image-based phase-field model. Moreover, we highlight the distinct relaxation processes at different state-of-charges (SOCs), wherein thermodynamically unstable graphite particles undergo a drastic intra-particle lithium redistribution and inter-particle lithium exchange at intermediate SOCs, whereas the electrode equilibrates much slower at low and high SOCs. These physics-based insights into the distinct SOC-dependent relaxation efficiency provide new perspective towards developing advanced fast charge protocols to suppress plating and shorten the constant voltage regime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Groundwater and Surface Water Flow (GSFLOW) model files for the East River, Colorado

The data package contains model input files and executables for the East River, Colorado (750 km2) located in the headwaters of the Upper Colorado River Basin. The code applied is the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater and Surface Water Flow (GSFLOW) model. The model contains a 100-m grid resolution to represent topographic complexity and a daily timestep accounts for energy and water partitioning between the snowpack, vegetation, soil zone and bedrock. The land surface model is dynamically linked to a three-dimensional groundwater flow model that allows for streamflow gaining and losing conditions. The groundwater model accounts for nine stratigraphic units and extends 400 m below land surface. Using this modeling framework we explore historical water budgets (water year 1987-2022) and the influence of seasonal warming and associated mechanisms driving groundwater declines and streamflow loss. A Readme_062424.txt file provides instructions on how to download all files. Input and output files are provided for the historical simulation representative of water years 1987 to 2022 (i.e. baseline) and the all-year +4C warming scenario. Instructions are provided to run the seasonal warming scenarios with warming applied only to the autumn, winter, spring or summer months. Modeled output used in figures for Carroll et al., 2024 are also provided with metadata describing where these data were obtained. This dataset additionally includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type.Updated on 06-24-2024: The dataset was updated to include model outputs (updated base.zip and 4C.zip files), figure source files (Figure_Source_Files.zip), an updated Readme file (Readme_062424.txt), climate input files (climate_input_files.zip), and the adoption of ESS-DIVE File Level Metadata and CSV reporting formats (inclusion of flmd.csv and dd.csv files).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Final technical report for DE-SC0022255: Discovering Physically Meaningful Structures from Climate Extreme Data

The past two decades have witnessed natural disasters and extreme weather events that affect millions of people. At the same time, the data volume from high-resolution climate models, satellite, in-situ and ground-based measurements have substantially increased to petabyte scales. These new and readily accessible datasets create the previously missing pipeline required for scientific machine learning (ML) and therefore new opportunities for improved understanding and prediction capability of climate extreme events. This project developed a deep latent variable model framework to discover physically meaningful hidden structures from high-dimensional, spatiotemporal climate extreme data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling the impact of structure and coverage on the reactivity of realistic heterogeneous catalysts

Adsorbates often cover the surfaces of catalysts densely as they carry out reactions, dynamically altering their structure and reactivity. Understanding adsorbate-induced phenomena and harnessing them in our broader quest for improved catalysts is a substantial challenge that is only beginning to be addressed. Here, in this work, we chart a path toward a deeper understanding of such phenomena by focusing on emerging in silico modeling methodologies, which will increasingly incorporate machine learning techniques. We first examine how adsorption on catalyst surfaces can lead to local and even global structural changes spanning entire nanoparticles, and how this affects their reactivity. We then evaluate current efforts and the remaining challenges in developing robust and predictive simulations for modeling such behavior. Last, we provide our perspectives in four critical areas—integration of artificial intelligence, building robust catalysis informatics infrastructure, synergism with experimental characterization, and adaptive modeling frameworks—that we believe can help surmount the remaining challenges in rationally designing catalysts in light of these complex phenomena.

catalytic mechanisms↗

A Coupled fcGCM-GCE Modeling System: A 3D Cloud Resolving Model and a Regional Scale Model

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and ore sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (21CE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicity calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generation regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A Brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications), and (4) The characteristics of the four-dimensional cloud data sets (or cloud library) stored at Goddard.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and A Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (21CE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generation regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and a Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CFWs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1 998 and 1999). In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗