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At least 901 records · Page 50

Quantifying model prediction sensitivity to model-form uncertainty

Computational and mathematical models are essential to understanding complex systems and phenomena. However, when developing such models, limited knowledge and/or resources necessitates the use of simplifying assumptions. It is therefore crucial to quantify the impact of such simplifying assumptions on the reliability and accuracy of resulting model predictions. This work develops a first-of-its-kind approach to quantify the impact of physics modeling assumptions on predictions. Here, we leverage the emerging field of model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to modeling assumptions, in combination with grouped Sobol’ indices to quantitatively measure an assumption’s importance. Specifically, we compute the grouped Sobol’ index for the MFU representation’s parameters as a single importance measure of the assumption for which the MFU representation characterizes uncertainty. To ensure this approach is robust to the subjective choice of how to parameterize a MFU representation, we establish bounds for the difference between sensitivity results for two different MFU representations based on differences in model prediction statistics. The capabilities associated with this approach are demonstrated on three exemplar problems: an upscaled subsurface contaminant transport problem, ablation modeling for hypersonic flight, and nuclear waste repository modeling. We found that our grouped approach is able to assess the impact of modeling assumptions on predictions and offers computational advantages over classical Sobol’ index computation while providing more interpretable results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DSMC Simulations of Hypersonic Flows With Shock Interactions and Validation With Experiments

The capabilities of a relatively new direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code are examined for the problem of hypersonic laminar shock/shock and shock/boundary layer interactions, where boundary layer separation is an important feature of the flow. Flow about two model configurations is considered, where both configurations (a biconic and a hollow cylinder-flare) have recent published experimental measurements. The computations are made by using the DS2V code of Bird, a general two-dimensional/axisymmetric time accurate code that incorporates many of the advances in DSMC over the past decade. The current focus is on flows produced in ground-based facilities at Mach 12 and 16 test conditions with nitrogen as the test gas and the test models at zero incidence. Results presented highlight the sensitivity of the calculations to grid resolution, sensitivity to physical modeling parameters, and comparison with experimental measurements. Information is provided concerning the flow structure and surface results for the extent of separation, heating, pressure, and skin friction.

Moss, James N.↗

DSMC Simulations of Hypersonic Flows With Shock Interactions and Validation With Experiments

The capabilities of a relatively new direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code are examined for the problem of hypersonic laminar shock/shock and shock/boundary layer interactions, where boundary layer separation is an important feature of the flow. Flow about two model configurations is considered, where both configurations (a biconic and a hollow cylinder-flare) have recent published experimental measurements. The computations are made by using the DS2V code of Bird, a general two-dimensional/axisymmetric time accurate code that incorporates many of the advances in DSMC over the past decade. The current focus is on flows produced in ground-based facilities at Mach 12 and 16 test conditions with nitrogen as the test gas and the test models at zero incidence. Results presented highlight the sensitivity of the calculations to grid resolutions, sensitivity to physical modeling parameters, and comparison with experimental measurements. Information is provided concerning the flow structure and surface results for the extent of separation, heating, pressure, and skin friction.

Moss, James N.↗

Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) Campaign

The Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign was an international cooperative field study based out of Osan Air Base, Songtan, South Korea (about 60 kilometers south of Seoul) in April-June 2016. A comprehensive suite of instruments capable of measuring atmospheric composition was deployed around the Korean peninsula on aircrafts, ships, and at ground sites in order to characterize local and transboundary pollution. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) forecast model was used for near real time meteorological and aerosol forecasting and flight planning during the KORUS-AQ campaign. Evaluation of GEOS-5 against observations from the campaign will help to identify inaccuracies in the models physical and chemical processes in this region within East Asia and lead to further developments of the modeling system.

KORUS-AQ↗

Feasibility of Formulating Ecosystem Biogeochemical Models From Established Physical Rules

Abstract To improve the predictive capability of ecosystem biogeochemical models (EBMs), we discuss the feasibility of formulating biogeochemical processes using physical rules that have underpinned the many successes in computational physics and chemistry. We argue that the currently popular empirically based approaches, such as multiplicative empirical response functions and the law of the minimum, will not lead to EBM formulations that can be continuously refined to incorporate improved mechanistic understanding and empirical observations of biogeochemical processes. Instead, we propose that EBM parameterizations, as a lossy data compression problem, can be better formulated using established physical rules widely used in computational physics and chemistry, and different biogeochemical processes can be more robustly integrated within a reactive‐transport framework. Through several examples, we demonstrate how mathematical representations derived from physical rules can improve understanding of relevant biogeochemical processes and enable more effective communication between modelers, observationalists, and experimentalists regarding essential questions, such as what measurements are needed to meaningfully inform models and how can models generate new process‐level hypotheses to test in empirical studies. Finally, while empirical models with more parameters are often less robust, physical rules‐based models can be more robust and show lower predictive equifinality, stemming from their enhanced consistency in representations of processes, interactions and spatial scaling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Generative models for simulation of KamLAND-Zen

Abstract The next generation of searches for neutrinoless double beta decay ($$0 \nu \beta \beta $$ 0 ν β β ) are poised to answer deep questions on the nature of neutrinos and the source of the Universe’s matter–antimatter asymmetry. They will be looking for event rates of less than one event per ton of instrumented isotope per year. To claim discovery, accurate and efficient simulations of detector events that mimic$$0 \nu \beta \beta $$ 0 ν β β is critical. Traditional Monte Carlo (MC) simulations can be supplemented by machine-learning-based generative models. This work describes the performance of generative models that we designed for monolithic liquid scintillator detectors like KamLAND to produce accurate simulation data without a predefined physics model. We present their current ability to recover low-level features and perform interpolation. In the future, the results of these generative models can be used to improve event classification and background rejection by providing high-quality abundant generated data.

Physics↗

Cathode to Target Simulations for Scorpius: I. Simulation Codes and Models

The new Scorpius linear induction electron accelerator is under development for multi-pulse flash radiography of large, explosively-driven hydrodynamic experiments. Beam physics from the cathode to the target was examined with computer simulations, including envelope, ray-trace, and particle-in cell (PIC) codes. Beam instabilities investigated included beam breakup (BBU), image displacement, diocotron, parametric envelope, ion hose, and the resistive wall instability. Beam corkscrew motion and emittance growth from beam mismatch were also studied. The results of these simulations is documented in a series of reports. In this report the computer codes and physical models used for these simulations are described. The conclusion of this study is that Scorpius will produce and accelerate a beam with radiographic quality equivalent to the present accelerators at Los Alamos National Laboratory if the same engineering standards and construction details are upheld.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Runtime and Pressurization Analyses of Propellant Tanks

Multi-element unstructured CFD has been utilized at NASA SSC to carry out analyses of propellant tank systems in different modes of operation. The three regimes of interest at SSC include (a) tank chill down (b) tank pressurization and (c) runtime propellant draw-down and purge. While tank chill down is an important event that is best addressed with long time-scale heat transfer calculations, CFD can play a critical role in the tank pressurization and runtime modes of operation. In these situations, problems with contamination of the propellant by inclusion of the pressurant gas from the ullage causes a deterioration of the quality of the propellant delivered to the test article. CFD can be used to help quantify the mixing and propellant degradation. During tank pressurization under some circumstances, rapid mixing of relatively warm pressurant gas with cryogenic propellant can lead to rapid densification of the gas and loss of pressure in the tank. This phenomenon can cause serious problems during testing because of the resulting decrease in propellant flow rate. With proper physical models implemented, CFD can model the coupling between the propellant and pressurant including heat transfer and phase change effects and accurately capture the complex physics in the evolving flowfields. This holds the promise of allowing the specification of operational conditions and procedures that could minimize the undesirable mixing and heat transfer inherent in propellant tank operation. It should be noted that traditional CFD modeling is inadequate for such simulations because the fluids in the tank are in a range of different sub-critical and supercritical states and elaborate phase change and mixing rules have to be developed to accurately model the interaction between the ullage gas and the propellant. We show a typical run-time simulation of a spherical propellant tank, containing RP-1 in this case, being pressurized with room-temperature nitrogen at 540 R. Nitrogen, shown in blue on the right-hand side of the figures, enters the tank from the diffuser at the top of the figures and impinges on the RP-1, shown in red, while the propellant is being continuously drained at the rate of 1050 lbs/sec through a pipe at the bottom of the tank. The sequence of frames in Figure 1 shows the resultant velocity fields and mixing between nitrogen and RP-1 in a cross-section of the tank at different times. A vortex is seen to form in the incoming nitrogen stream that tends to entrain propellant, mixing it with the pressurant gas. The RP-1 mass fraction contours in Figure 1 are also indicative of the level of mixing and contamination of the propellant. The simulation is used to track the propagation of the pure propellant front as it is drawn toward the exit with the evolution of the mixing processes in the tank. The CFD simulation modeled a total of 10 seconds of run time. As is seen from Figure 1d, after 5.65 seconds the propellant front is nearing the drain pipe, especially near the center of the tank. Behind this pure propellant front is a mixed fluid of compromised quality that would require the test to end when it reaches the exit pipe. Such unsteady simulations provide an estimate of the time that a high-quality propellant supply to the test article can be guaranteed at the modeled mass flow rate. In the final paper, we will discuss simulations of the LOX and propellant tanks at NASA SSC being pressurized by an inert ullage. Detailed comparisons will be made between the CFD simulations and lower order models as well as with test data. Conditions leading to cryo collapse in the tank will also be identified.

Field, Robert E.↗

Improving Variational Autoencoders for New Physics Detection at the LHC With Normalizing Flows

We investigate how to improve new physics detection strategies exploiting variational autoencoders and normalizing flows for anomaly detection at the Large Hadron Collider. As a working example, we consider the DarkMachines challenge dataset. We show how different design choices (e.g., event representations, anomaly score definitions, network architectures) affect the result on specific benchmark new physics models. Once a baseline is established, we discuss how to improve the anomaly detection accuracy by exploiting normalizing flow layers in the latent space of the variational autoencoder.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Particle–Continuum Coupling and its Scaling Regimes: Theory and Applications

Abstract This work is motivated by the goal of designing simulation software for technical devices that, at their functional core, rely on atomistic‐scale processes embedded in a larger‐scale fluid environment. The core of the problem is the conceptual and technical approach for coupling particle and continuum representations of a fluid. The state of the art for key aspects including physical modeling, mathematical formalization, computational implementation, and applications, is discussed and organized in a consistent picture across the relevant physical regimes.

Delle Site, Luigi↗

Secondary Pion Production using the LINAC Beam on Graphite and Tungsten Targets

The Fermilab 400-MeV Linac primary proton beam can produce precision, single-species secondary beams using a production target in the MeV Test Area experimental hall; specifically, pions from 4 up to 120 MeV kinetic energy. (These low energy pions rapidly decay into a muon beam in a secondary collection and transport beamline.) Although graphite is a standard production target material given its ultra-high temperature tolerance and low impact on the post-target primary beam, secondary pion/muon total production cross sections increase approximately as Z1/3 for positive muons and N2/3 for negative muons. Higher mass targets such as tungsten can potentially increase low-energy m+ and m- rates by factors of 3 and 8, respectively. Initial production studies have confirmed higher muon yield from heavy targets (tungsten vs carbon), but also, surprisingly, show significant differences in pion production between modern hadronic models (GENIEhad) and between GEANT and MCNP, state of the art production modeling codes. This project will further investigate the production discrepancies between these two target materials and between different physics models with high-statistics runs using the GEANT-based code, G4Beamline to better quantify the results and compare with production data which will be obtained using the MTA secondary beamline.

Ahmed, Shiza↗

Adaptively Learned Modeling for a Digital Twin of Hydropower Turbines with Application to a Pilot Testing System

In the development of a digital twin (DT) for hydropower turbines, dynamic modeling of the system (e.g., penstock, turbine, speed control) is crucial, along with all the necessary data interface, virtualization, and dashboard designs. Since the DT must mimic the actual dynamics of the hydropower turbine accurately, adaptive learning is required to train these dynamic models online so that the models in the DT can effectively follow the representation of the actual hydropower turbine dynamics accurately and reliably. This study presents an adaptive learning method for obtaining the hydropower turbine models for DT development of hydropower systems using the recursive least squares algorithm. To simplify the formulation, the hydropower turbine under consideration was assumed to operate near a fixed operating point, where the system dynamics can be well represented by a set of linear differential equations with constant parameters. In this context, the well-known six-coefficient model for the Francis turbine was formulated as the starting point to obtain input and output models for the turbine. Then, an adaptive learning mechanism was developed to learn model parameters using real-time data from a hydropower turbine testing system. This led to semi-physical modeling, in which first principles and data-driven modeling are integrated to produce dynamic models for DT development. Applications to a pilot system at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) were made, and the models learned adaptively using the data collected from the university’s pilot system. Desired modeling and validation results were obtained.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Comet Thermal Modeling

Past thermal models of cometary nuclei have tended to be restricted to hemispherical averages and have ignored many important effects such as surface heat flow, rotation period, or coma opacity. A computer based model called KRC/COM was developed which includes these and many other important effects to give a more accurate physical model of sublimation from icy cometary nuclei. Halley's Comet was used as a test case because of the high interest in the 1986 perihelion passage of that comet.

Weissman, P. R.↗

Supersonic reacting internal flow fields

The national program to develop a trans-atmospheric vehicle has kindled a renewed interest in the modeling of supersonic reacting flows. A supersonic combustion ramjet, or scramjet, has been proposed to provide the propulsion system for this vehicle. The development of computational techniques for modeling supersonic reacting flow fields, and the application of these techniques to an increasingly difficult set of combustion problems are studied. Since the scramjet problem has been largely responsible for motivating this computational work, a brief history is given of hypersonic vehicles and their propulsion systems. A discussion is also given of some early modeling efforts applied to high speed reacting flows. Current activities to develop accurate and efficient algorithms and improved physical models for modeling supersonic combustion is then discussed. Some new problems where computer codes based on these algorithms and models are being applied are described.

Drummond, J. Philip↗

Visualization techniques to experimentally model flow and heat transfer in turbine and aircraft flow passages

Increased attention to fuel economy and increased thrust requirements have increased the demand for higher aircraft gas turbine engine efficiency through the use of higher turbine inlet temperatures. These higher temperatures increase the importance of understanding the heat transfer patterns which occur throughout the turbine passages. It is often necessary to use a special coating or some form of cooling to maintain metal temperatures at a level which the metal can withstand for long periods of time. Effective cooling schemes can result in significant fuel savings through higher allowable turbine inlet temperatures and can increase engine life. Before proceeding with the development of any new turbine it is economically desirable to create both mathematical and experimental models to study and predict flow characteristics and temperature distributions. Some of the methods are described used to physically model heat transfer patterns, cooling schemes, and other complex flow patterns associated with turbine and aircraft passages.

Russell, Louis M.↗

Supersonic reacting internal flowfields

The national program to develop a trans-atmospheric vehicle has kindled a renewed interest in the modeling of supersonic reacting flows. A supersonic combustion ramjet, or scramjet, has been proposed to provide the propulsion system for this vehicle. The development of computational techniques for modeling supersonic reacting flowfields, and the application of these techniques to an increasingly difficult set of combustion problems are studied. Since the scramjet problem has been largely responsible for motivating this computational work, a brief history is given of hypersonic vehicles and their propulsion systems. A discussion is also given of some early modeling efforts applied to high speed reacting flows. Current activities to develop accurate and efficient algorithms and improved physical models for modeling supersonic combustion is then discussed. Some new problems where computer codes based on these algorithms and models are being applied are described.

Drummond, J. P.↗

Modeling of the 22 July 2009 Storm

The magnetic storm on 22 July 2009 is the greatest storm observed since the summer of 2008 when TWINS began its stereo imaging of the magnetosphere, On 22 July 2009, the Dst dropped to nearly -80 nT at 07:00 and 10:00 UT. During the main phase and at the peak of the storm, TWINS 1 and 2 were near apogee and moving from pre-dawn to post-dawn local time. The energetic neutral atom (ENA) Imagers on the 2 spacecraft captured the storm intensification and the formation of the partial ring current. The development of this storm has been simulated using the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) to understand and interpret the observed signatures. The CRCM reproduced the double-dip in the Dst index and the simulated ENA flux intensities agree very well with the TWINS images. However, the peak of ion flux predicted by the model is always eastward of the observed maximum by TWINS. This discrepancy posts a challenge to reexamine the physical models employed in the CRCM.

Fok, Mei-Ching↗

Scalable Implicit Solvers with Dynamic Mesh Adaptation for a Relativistic Drift-Kinetic Fokker–Planck–Boltzmann Model

In this work we consider a relativistic drift-kinetic model for runaway electrons along with a Fokker–Planck operator for small-angle Coulomb collisions, a radiation damping operator, and a secondary knock-on (Boltzmann) collision source. Here, we develop a new scalable fully implicit solver utilizing finite volume and conservative finite difference schemes and dynamic mesh adaptivity. A new data management framework in the PETSc library based on the p4est library is developed to enable simulations with dynamic adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), distributed memory parallelization, and dynamic load balancing of computational work. This framework and the runaway electron solver building on the framework are able to dynamically capture both bulk Maxwellian at the low-energy region and a runaway tail at the high-energy region. To effectively capture features via the AMR algorithm, a new AMR indicator prediction strategy is proposed that is performed alongside the implicit time evolution of the solution. This strategy is complemented by the introduction of computationally cheap feature-based AMR indicators that are analyzed theoretically. Numerical results quantify the advantages of the prediction strategy in better capturing features compared with nonpredictive strategies; and we demonstrate trade-offs regarding computational costs. The robustness with respect to model parameters, algorithmic scalability, and parallel scalability are demonstrated through several benchmark problems including manufactured solutions and solutions of different physics models. We focus on demonstrating the advantages of using implicit time stepping and AMR for runaway electron simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗