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At least 901 records · Page 50

Evaluating Large‐Storm Dominance in High‐Resolution GCMs and Observations Across the Western Contiguous United States

Abstract Extreme precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency across much of the land‐surface as the global climate warms, but such projections have typically relied on coarse‐resolution (100–250 km) general circulation models (GCMs). The ensemble of HighResMIP GCMs presents an opportunity to evaluate how a more finely resolved atmosphere and land‐surface might enhance the fidelity of the simulated contribution of large‐magnitude storms to total precipitation, particularly across topographically complex terrain. Here, the simulation of large‐storm dominance, that is, the number of wettest days to reach half of the total annual precipitation, is quantified across the western United States (WUS) using four GCMs within the HighResMIP ensemble and their coarse resolution counterparts. Historical GCM simulations (1950–2014) are evaluated against a baseline generated from station‐observed daily precipitation (4,803 GHCN‐D stations) and from three gridded, observationally based precipitation data sets that are coarsened to match the resolution of the GCMs. All coarse‐resolution simulations produce less large‐storm dominance than in observations across the WUS. For two of the four GCMs, bias in the median large‐storm dominance is reduced in the HighResMIP simulation, decreasing by as much as 62% in the intermountain west region. However, the other GCMs show little change or even an increase (+28%) in bias of median large‐storm dominance across multiple sub‐regions. The spread in differences with resolution amongst GCMs suggests that, in addition to resolution, model structure and parameterization of precipitation generating processes also contribute to bias in simulated large‐storm dominance.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Dataset about Warming Effects on Carbon Cycling and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Permafrost Ecosystems

Field observations provide direct evidence of how does carbon cycling in permafrost ecosystems respond to climate change. This study provides a comprehensive dataset on the impact of warming on carbon cycling and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in permafrost ecosystems. The dataset is extracted and integrated from 132 peer-reviewed studies with 1430 paired observations across eight major permafrost ecosystems, including Arctic and subarctic tundra and wetland, and alpine meadow, steppe, tundra and wetland. This dataset includes 17 variables from experiments conducted during the growing season, covering the plant and soil carbon pools, soil nitrogen pool, and GHG (i.e., CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) fluxes, among others. Background information on site climate conditions, vegetation and soil characteristics, and details of the warming experiments, including timing, methods, and warming magnitude, are also contained in the dataset. This dataset facilitates a comprehensive understanding of the impact of warming on carbon cycling and GHG fluxes in permafrost ecosystems, and provides supports for meta-analyses and literature reviews, remote sensing data validation, and land model development and parameterization.

Bao, Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beiji↗

Soot superaggregates from flaming wildfires and their direct radiative forcing

Wildfires contribute significantly to global soot emissions, yet their aerosol formation mechanisms and resulting particle properties are poorly understood and parameterized in climate models. The conventional view holds that soot is formed via the cluster-dilute aggregation mechanism in wildfires and emitted as aggregates with fractal dimension Df < 1.8 mobility diameter Dm # 1 mm, and aerodynamic diameter Da# 300 nm. Here we report the ubiquitous presence of soot superaggregates (SAs) in the outflow from a major wildfire in India. SAs are porous, low-density aggregates of cluster-dilute aggregates with characteristic Df< 2.6, Dm . 1 mm, and Da# 300 nm that form via the cluster-dense aggregation mechanism. We present additional observations of soot SAs in wildfire smoke-laden air masses over Northern California, New Mexico, and Mexico City. We estimate that SAs contribute, per unit optical depth, up to 35% less atmospheric warming than freshly-emitted (Df < 1.8) aggregates, and <90% more warming than the volume-equivalent spherical soot particles simulated in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A mixed $\ell_1$ regularization approach for sparse simultaneous approximation of parameterized PDEs

We introduce and assess a novel sparse polynomial technique for the simultaneous approximation of parameterized partial differential equations (PDEs) with deterministic and stochastic inputs. Our approach treats the numerical solution as a jointly sparse reconstruction problem through the reformulation of the standard basis pursuit denoising, where the set of jointly sparse vectors is infinite. To achieve global reconstruction of sparse solutions to parameterized elliptic PDEs over both physical and parametric domains, we combine the standard measurement scheme developed for compressed sensing in the context of bounded orthonormal systems with a novel mixed-norm based $\ell_1$ regularization method that exploits both energy and sparsity. Moreover, we are able to prove that, with minimal sample complexity, error estimates comparable to the best $s$-term and quasi-optimal approximations are achievable, while requiring only {\em a priori} bounds on polynomial truncation error with respect to the energy norm.Finally, we perform extensive numerical experiments on several high-dimensional parameterized elliptic PDE models to demonstrate the superior recovery properties of the proposed approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Study of asymmetric fission yield behavior from neutron-deficient Hg isotope

A study of asymmetric fission yield behavior from a neutron-deficient Hg isotope has been conducted. The fission yield calculation of the neutron-deficient Hg isotope using Brownian Metropolis shape had showed unusual result at decreasing energy. In this paper, this interesting feature will be validated by using nine degree of scission shapes parameterization from Brosa model that had been implemented in TALYS nuclear reaction code. This validation is intended to show agreement between both model and the experiment result. The expected result from these models considered to be different due to dynamical properties that implemented in both models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Dissipative particle dynamics for directed self-assembly of block copolymers

The dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) simulation method has been shown to be a promising tool to study self-assembly of soft matter systems. In particular, it has been used to study block copolymer (BCP) self-assembly. However, previous parameterizations of this model are not able to capture most of the rich phase behaviors of BCPs in thin films nor in directed self-assembly (chemoepitaxy or graphoepitaxy). Here, we extend the applicability of the DPD method for BCPs to make it applicable to thin films and directed self-assembly. Our new reparameterization not only is able to reproduce the bulk phase behavior but also manages to predict thin film structures obtained experimentally from chemoepitaxy or graphoepitaxy. A number of different complex structures, such as bilayer nanomeshes, 90° bend structures, circular cylinders/lamellae and Frank-Kasper phases directed by trenches, and post arrays or chemically patterned substrates, have all been reproduced in this work. This reparameterized DPD model should serves as a powerful tool to predict BCP self-assembly, especially in some complex systems where it is difficult to implement self-consistent field theory.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Investigating growth to detonation in vapor-deposited hexanitrostilbene and pentaerythritol tetranitrate films using high-throughput methods

In this work, a high-throughput experimental setup was used to characterize initiation threshold and growth to detonation in the explosives hexanitrostilbene (HNS) and pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN). The experiment sequentially launched an array of laser-driven flyers to shock samples arranged in a 96-well microplate geometry, with photonic Doppler velocimetry diagnostics to characterize flyer velocity and particle velocity at the explosive–substrate interface. Vapor-deposited films of HNS and PETN were used to provide numerous samples with various thicknesses, enabling characterization of the evolution of growth to detonation. One-dimensional hydrocode simulations were performed with reactions disabled to illustrate where the experimental data deviate from the predicted inert response. Prompt initiation was observed in 144 μm thick HNS films at flyer velocities near 3000 m/s and in 125 μm thick PETN films at flyer velocities near 2400 m/s. This experimental setup enables rapid quantification of the growth of reactions in explosive materials that can reach detonation at sub-millimeter length scales. These data can subsequently be used for parameterizing reactive burn models in hydrocode simulations, as discussed in Paper II [D. E. Kittell, R. Knepper, and A. S. Tappan, J. Appl. Phys. 131, 154902 (2022)].

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A DFT-based kinetic Monte Carlo simulation of multiphase oxide-metal thin film growth

Functional thin films of nanoscale metal pillars in oxide or nitride matrices known as vertically aligned nanocomposite (VAN) have gained much interest owing to their unique strain-coupled and highly anisotropic properties. So far, the deposition of these films has been explored mostly experimentally. In this work, a density functional theory (DFT)-based kinetic Monte Carlo simulation model using Bortz–Kalos–Lebowitz algorithm was developed to understand the growth of VAN films deposited by pulsed laser technique on mismatching substrates. The model has been parameterized and applied to understand the kinetics of growth thin films consisting of Au pillars in CeO2 matrix deposited on SrTiO3 substrates. The effects of pulsed laser deposition (PLD) conditions including the pulse frequency, deposition flux, and substrate temperature were explored. The simulations indicate that the Au pillar size and shape exhibit significant dependence on the PLD conditions. Namely, increasing the temperature increases the average pillar size and lowers the pillar density, and vice versa. In addition, the simulations revealed that increasing the deposition rate results in lowering the average pillar size and increasing the density. Particularly, the DFT results suggest that Au pillar size can be tuned during the initial growth of the first monolayer due to the significantly low activation barrier. Our analysis showed that the relationship between the average pillar size and pillar density is influenced by the kinetics. Furthermore, autocorrelation analysis showed that pillars self-organize in quasi-ordered patterns at certain windows of the deposition conditions, which is attributed to the complex nature of the chemical interactions in the system, the kinetics, and the deposition parameters.

Physics↗

Local carbon reserves are insufficient for phloem terpene induction during drought in Pinus edulis in response to bark beetle–associated fungi

Stomatal closure during drought inhibits carbon uptake and may reduce a tree's defensive capacity. Limited carbon availability during drought may increase a tree's mortality risk, particularly if drought constrains trees' capacity to rapidly produce defenses during biotic attack. We parameterized a new model of conifer defense using physiological data on carbon reserves and chemical defenses before and after a simulated bark beetle attack in mature Pinus edulis under experimental drought. Attack was simulated using inoculations with a consistent bluestain fungus (Ophiostoma sp.) of Ips confusus, the main bark beetle colonizing this tree, to induce a defensive response. Trees with more carbon reserves produced more defenses but measured phloem carbon reserves only accounted for c. 23% of the induced defensive response. Our model predicted universal mortality if local reserves alone supported defense production, suggesting substantial remobilization and transport of stored resin or carbon reserves to the inoculation site. Our results show that de novo terpene synthesis represents only a fraction of the total measured phloem terpenes in P. edulis following fungal inoculation. Without direct attribution of phloem terpene concentrations to available carbon, many studies may be overestimating the scale and importance of de novo terpene synthesis in a tree's induced defense response.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Super-resolution within a one-dimensional phononic crystal of resonators using time reversal in an equivalent circuit model

An equivalent circuit model has been developed to model a one-dimensional waveguide with many side-branch Helmholtz resonators. This waveguide constitutes a phononic crystal that has been shown to have decreased phase speed below the resonance frequency of an individual resonator. This decreased phase speed can be exploited to achieve super-resolution using broadband time reversal focusing techniques. It is shown that the equivalent circuit model is capable of quantifying this change in phase speed of the crystal and also the small-scale wave-resonator interactions within the crystal. The equivalent circuit model enables the parameterization of the physical variables and the optimization of the focusing bandwidth by balancing the combination of increasing resolution and decreasing amplitude near the resonance frequency. It is shown that the quality factor—in this case, the quality factor determined by the geometric shape of each resonator—controls the range of frequencies that are strongly affected by the Helmholtz resonators.

Kingsley, Adam D.↗

AWARE: The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) performed comprehensive meteorological and aerosol measurements and ground-based atmospheric remote sensing at two Antarctic stations using the most advanced instrumentation available. A suite of cloud research radars, lidars, spectral and broadband radiometers, aerosol chemical and microphysical sampling equipment, and meteorological instrumentation was deployed at McMurdo Station on Ross Island from December 2015 through December 2016. A smaller suite of radiometers and meteorological equipment, including radiosondes optimized for surface energy budget measurement, was deployed on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet between 4 December 2015 and 17 January 2016. AWARE provided Antarctic atmospheric data comparable to several well-instrumented high Arctic sites that have operated for many years and that reveal numerous contrasts with the Arctic in aerosol and cloud microphysical properties. These include persistent differences in liquid cloud occurrence, cloud height, and cloud thickness. Antarctic aerosol properties are also quite different from the Arctic in both seasonal cycle and composition, due to the continent’s isolation from lower latitudes by Southern Ocean storm tracks. Antarctic aerosol number and mass concentrations are not only non-negligible but perhaps play a more important role than previously recognized because of the higher sensitivities of clouds at the very low concentrations caused by the large-scale dynamical isolation. Antarctic aerosol chemical composition, particularly organic components, has implications for local cloud microphysics. The AWARE dataset, fully available online in the ARM Program data archive, offers numerous case studies for unique and rigorous evaluation of mixed-phase cloud parameterization in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a Random-Forest Cloud-Regime Classification Model Based on Surface Radiation and Cloud Products

Various methods have been developed to characterize cloud type, otherwise referred to as cloud regime. These include manual sky observations, combining radiative and cloud vertical properties observed from satellite, surface-based remote sensing, and digital processing of sky imagers. While each method has inherent advantages and disadvantages, none of these cloud-typing methods actually includes measurements of surface shortwave or longwave radiative fluxes. Here, a method that relies upon detailed, surface-based radiation and cloud measurements and derived data products to train a random-forest machine-learning cloud classification model is introduced. Measurements from five years of data from the ARM Southern Great Plains site were compiled to train and independently evaluate the model classification performance. A cloud-type accuracy of approximately 80% using the random-forest classifier reveals that the model is well suited to predict climatological cloud properties. Furthermore, an analysis of the cloud-type misclassifications is performed. While physical cloud types may be misreported, the shortwave radiative signatures are similar between misclassified cloud types. From this, we assert that the cloud-regime model has the capacity to successfully differentiate clouds with comparable cloud–radiative interactions. Therefore, we conclude that the model can provide useful cloud-property information for fundamental cloud studies, inform renewable energy studies, and be a tool for numerical model evaluation and parameterization improvement, among many other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the Conservation of Energy Variables in Simulations of Deep Moist Convection

Abstract It is often assumed in parcel theory calculations, numerical models, and cumulus parameterizations that moist static energy (MSE) is adiabatically conserved. However, the adiabatic conservation of MSE is only approximate because of the assumption of hydrostatic balance. Two alternative variables are evaluated here: MSE − IB and MSE + KE, wherein IB is the path integral of buoyancy ( B ) and KE is kinetic energy. Both of these variables relax the hydrostatic assumption and are more precisely conserved than MSE. This article quantifies the errors that result from assuming that the aforementioned variables are conserved in large-eddy simulations (LES) of both disorganized and organized deep convection. Results show that both MSE − IB and MSE + KE better predict quantities along trajectories than MSE alone. MSE − IB is better conserved in isolated deep convection, whereas MSE − IB and MSE + KE perform comparably in squall-line simulations. These results are explained by differences between the pressure perturbation behavior of squall lines and isolated convection. Errors in updraft B diagnoses are universally minimized when MSE − IB is assumed to be adiabatically conserved, but only when moisture dependencies of heat capacity and temperature dependency of latent heating are accounted for. When less accurate latent heat and heat capacity formulae were used, MSE − IB yielded poorer B predictions than MSE due to compensating errors. Our results suggest that various applications would benefit from using either MSE − IB or MSE + KE instead of MSE with properly formulated heat capacities and latent heats.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metaanalysis of liana and tree functional traits

The objectives of this project were (i) to determine how tropical trees and lianas differed in terms of their functional traits, and (ii) to parameterize a computational model of tree-liana competition. We carried out a meta-analysis of tree and liana functional traits in order to achieve these goals. First, we downloaded functional trait data from the TRY database during November and December 2019. Traits of interest included leaf, wood, and root functional traits. We included only angiosperm tree and liana species that are found in tropical biomes. We then computed the species average for each trait. The results are included in “TRY_traits_metaanalysis.csv”. We also conducted a second meta-analysis focused on the hydraulic traits of tropical trees and lianas. We used Google Scholar and Web of Science to identify papers that contained hydraulic trait values. The papers that we found were all published between 1997-2019. As with our TRY-based meta-analysis, we included only angiosperm tree and liana species that are found in the tropics, and we computed species averages. The results are contained in the file “hydraulic_traits_metaanalysis.csv”. Both files are in csv format, so they can be read with any plain text editor, as well as programs like R or Excel.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MFNets: Multifidelity data-driven networks for Bayesian learning and prediction

This paper presents a multifidelity uncertainty quantification framework called MFNets. We seek to address three existing challenges that arise when experimental and simulation data from different sources are used to enhance statistical estimation and prediction with quantified uncertainty. Specifically, we demonstrate that MFNets can (1) fuse heterogeneous data sources arising from simulations with different parameterizations, e.g simulation models with different uncertain parameters or data sets collected under different environmental conditions; (2) encode known relationships among data sources to reduce data requirements; and (3) improve the robustness of existing multi-fidelity approaches to corrupted data. MFNets construct a network of latent variables (LVs) to facilitate the fusion of data from an ensemble of sources of varying credibility and cost. These LVs are posited as explanatory variables that provide the source of correlation in the observed data. Furthermore, MFNets provide a way to encode prior physical knowledge to enable efficient estimation of statistics and/or construction of surrogates via conditional independence relations on the LVs. We highlight the utility of our framework with a number of theoretical results which assess the quality of the posterior mean as a frequentist estimator and compare it to standard sampling approaches that use single fidelity, multilevel, and control variate Monte Carlo estimators. We also use the proposed framework to derive the Monte Carlo-based control variate estimator entirely from the use of Bayes rule and linear-Gaussian models -- to our knowledge the first such derivation. Finally, we demonstrate the ability to work with different uncertain parameters across different models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Using a Regional Cluster of AmeriFlux Sites in Central California to Advance Our Knowledge on Decadal-Scale Ecosystem-Atmosphere Carbon Dioxide Exchange

Continuous eddy convariance measurements of carbon dioxide, water vapor and heat were measured continuously between an oak savanna and an annual grassland in California over a 4 year period. These systems serve as representative sites for biomes in Mediterranean climates and experience much seasonal and inter-annual variability in temperature and precipitation. These sites hence serve as natural laboratories for how whole ecosystem will respond to warmer and drier conditions. The savanna proved to be a moderate sink of carbon, taking up about 150 gC m-2y-1 compared to the annual grassland, which tended to be carbon neutral and often a source during drier years. But this carbon sink by the savanna came at a cost. This ecosystem used about 100 mm more water per year than the grassland. And because the savanna was darker and rougher its air temperature was about 0.5 C warmer. In addition to our flux measurements, we collected vast amounts of ancillary data to interpret the site and fluxes, making this site a key site for model validation and parameterization. Datasets consist of terrestrial and airborne lidar for determining canopy structure, ground penetrating radar data on root distribution, phenology cameras monitoring leaf area index and its seasonality, predawn water potential, soil moisture, stem diameter and physiological capacity of photosynthesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗