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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Statistical–Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part I: Scheme Description

A novel framework is proposed for the bulk parameterization of rain microphysics: the Bayesian Observationally Constrained Statistical–Physical Scheme (BOSS). It is designed to facilitate direct constraint by observations using Bayesian inference. BOSS combines existing process-level microphysical knowledge with flexible process rate formulations and parameters constrained by observations within a Bayesian framework. Furthermore, using a raindrop size distribution (DSD) normalization method that relates DSD moments to one another via generalized power series, generalized multivariate power expressions are derived for the microphysical process rates as functions of a set of prognostic DSD moments. The scheme is flexible and can utilize any number and combination of prognostic moments and any number of terms in the process rate formulations. This means that both uncertainty in parameter values and structural uncertainty associated with the process rate formulations can be investigated systematically, which is not possible using traditional schemes. In this paper, BOSS is compared to two- and three-moment versions of a traditional bulk rain microphysics scheme (denoted as MORR). It is demonstrated that some process formulations in MORR are analytically equivalent to the generalized power expressions in BOSS using one or two terms, while others are not. BOSS is able to replicate the behavior of MORR in idealized one-dimensional rainshaft tests, but with a much more flexible and systematic design. Part II of this study describes the application of BOSS to derive rain microphysical process rates and posterior parameter distributions in Bayesian experiments using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling constrained by synthetic observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Birds Shed RNA-Viruses According to the Pareto Principle

A major challenge in disease ecology is to understand the role of individual variation of infection load on disease transmission dynamics and how this influences the evolution of resistance or tolerance mechanisms. Such information will improve our capacity to understand, predict, and mitigate pathogen-associated disease in all organisms. In many hostpathogen systems, particularly macroparasites and sexually transmitted diseases, it has been found that approximately 20% of the population is responsible for approximately 80% of the transmission events. Although host contact rates can account for some of this pattern, pathogen transmission dynamics also depend upon host infectiousness, an area that has received relatively little attention. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of pathogen shedding rates of 24 host (avian) – pathogen (RNA-virus) studies, including 17 bird species and five important zoonotic viruses. We determined that viral count data followed the Weibull distribution, the mean Gini coefficient (an index of inequality) was 0.687 (0.036 SEM), and that 22.0% (0.90 SEM) of the birds shed 80% of the virus across all studies, suggesting an adherence of viral shedding counts to the Pareto Principle. The relative position of a bird in a distribution of viral counts was affected by factors extrinsic to the host, such as exposure to corticosterone and to a lesser extent reduced food availability, but not to intrinsic host factors including age, sex, and migratory status. These data provide a quantitative view of heterogeneous virus shedding in birds that may be used to better parameterize epidemiological models and understand transmission dynamics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hicks Pries, Sulman, et al 2018. In situ incubation of 13C-labeled litter in three soil pits at Blodgett Forest, CA from 2013 to 2016

Even though over half of the world's soil organic carbon (SOC) is stored in subsoils (>20 cm deep), and the old ages of subsoil OC indicate its cycling differs from surface SOC, there are few studies examining in situ decomposition processes in deep soils. The purpose of this dataset is to elucidate these processes. In this study we added 13C-labeled fine roots to 15, 55, and 95 cm depths of a well-characterized coniferous forest Alfisol and monitored the amount of root-derived C remaining over 6, 12, and 30 months. We recovered the root-derived C in microbial phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) after 6 months and in coarse (>2 mm) particulate, fine (<2 mm) particulate, and dense, mineral-associated pools after 6, 12, and 30 months. Overall, root decomposition in the first 6 months was similar among all depths but significantly diverged at 30 months with faster decomposition at 15 cm than at 95 cm. There were more fungal and Gram negative-associated PLFAs at 15 cm than at 95 cm, and 13C analysis revealed those microbial groups preferred the added root carbon to native SOC. Mineral-associations were not the cause of slower decomposition at depth because similar amounts of applied root C was recovered in the dense fraction at all depths. The largest difference among depths was in the amount of root C recovered in the coarse particulate fraction, which was greater at 95 cm (50%) than at 15 cm (15%). Slower decomposition of the particulate pool at depth likely contributed to the increase in C:N ratios and depletion of δ13C values below 60 cm depth in our soil profiles. Simulations of these soils using the CORPSE model, which incorporates microbial priming effects and mineral stabilization of SOC, reproduced patterns of particulate and mineral-associated SOC over both time and depth and suggested that a lack of priming by root exudates at depth could account for the slower decomposition rate of particulate root material. Decomposition of deep particulate SOC may increase if root exudation or dissolved OC transport to depth increases.This dataset includes (1) characterization of the soil pits prior to litter addition, (2) characterization of how the litter changed after 6, 12, and 30 months, and (3) the CORPSE model structure, parameterization, and output.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

MENT-Flow: maximum-entropy phase space tomography using normalizing flows

Generative models can be trained to reproduce low-dimensional projections of high-dimensional phase space distributions. Normalizing flows are generative models that parameterize invertible transformations, allowing exact probability density evaluation and sampling. Consequently, flows are unbiased entropy estimators and could be used to solve the high-dimensional maximum-entropy tomography (MENT) problem. In this work, we evaluate a flow-based MENT solver (MENT-Flow) against exact maximum-entropy solutions and Minerbo's iterative MENT algorithm in two dimensions.

Hoover, Austin↗
DOE OSTI2013

Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Final Report to the U.S. Department of Energy for studies of Evaluation of Turbulence Parameterizations for Cloud-Resolving Models

The intermediately-prognostic higher-order turbulence closure (IPHOC) introduces a joint double-Gaussian distribution of liquid water potential temperature (θ l ), total water mixing ratio (q t ), and vertical velocity (w ) to represent any skewed turbulence circulations .The distribution is inferred from the first-, second-, and third-order moments of the variables given above, and is used to diagnose cloud fraction and grid-mean liquid water mixing ratio, as well as the buoyancy and fourth-order terms in the equations describing the evolution of the second- and third-order moments. Only three third-order moments (those of θ l , q t , and w ) are predicted in the IPHOC.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2016

ACAPEX – Ship-Based Ice Nuclei Collections Field Campaign Report

Measurements were sought to evaluate a hypotheses that sea-spray-sourced ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are of biological origin and represent a distinctly different INP population in comparison to long-range-transported desert or urban and regional land-sourced INP, and that the layering of marine within other aerosol layers feeding orographic storms over the mountains of California and the Western United States thereby leads to common and quantifiable scenarios that influence precipitation over the region. Aerosol collections on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research vessel (RV) Ronald H. Brown, for subsequent processing of INP immersion freezing activation temperature spectra and composition analyses, added a valuable measurement component to the ARM Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (ACAPEX) and related CalWater2 (NOAA) studies for use in parameterizing and modeling the impacts of marine boundary layer and other aerosols on climate and radiation via aerosol indirect effects on mixed-phase clouds. Twenty-five nominally 24-hour collections were made and have been processed for immersion freezing INP number concentrations versus temperature in the mixed-phase cloud temperature regime from -10 to -27°C. The similarity of INP number concentrations compared to typical marine boundary layer values attributed to sea-spray aerosols was noted. Nevertheless, variability of INP concentrations of up to 50 times was noted at individual temperatures over the course of the study. A particular analysis possible with this data set is to examine INP budgets over oceans inside versus outside of atmospheric river conditions. These INP measurements supplemented multiple airborne INP measurements on the ARM Aerial Facility (AAF), and others on the ground during ACAPEX and CalWater2, to provide extensive spatial and temporal analyses of INP immersion freezing spectra during winter storm periods. Future analyses will use thermal sensitivity to examine INP compositions as organic versus inorganic in these marine boundary layer samples. Data set integration is occurring under funding from an Atmospheric System Research (ASR) proposal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Coincident Aerosol and H2O Retrievals versus HSI Imager Field Campaign ReportH2O Retrievals versus HSI Imager Field Campaign Report

Two spectrally calibrated tarpaulins (tarps) were co-located at a fixed Global Positioning System (GPS) position on the gravel antenna field at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Their placement was timed to coincide with the overflight of a new hyperspectral imaging satellite. The intention was to provide an analysis of the data obtained, including the measured and retrieved spectral albedos for the calibration tarps. Subsequently, a full suite of retrieved values of H2O column, and the aerosol overburden, were to be compared to those determined by alternate SGP ground truth assets. To the extent possible, the down-looking cloud images would be assessed against the all-sky images. Because cloud contamination above a certain level precludes the inversion processing of the satellite data, coupled with infrequent targeting opportunities, clear-sky conditions were imposed. The SGP site was chosen not only as a target of opportunity for satellite validation, but as perhaps the best coincident field measurement site, as established by DOE’s ARM Facility. The satellite team had every expectation of using the information obtained from the SGP to improve the inversion products for all subsequent satellite images, including the cloud and radiative models and parameterizations and, thereby, the performance assessment for subsequent and historic image collections. Coordinating with the SGP onsite team, four visits, all in 2009, to the Central Facility occurred: • June 6-8 (successful exploratory visit to plan tarp placements, etc.) • July 18-24 (canceled because of forecast for heavy clouds) • Sep 9-12 (ground tarps placed, onset of clouds) • Nov 7-9 (visit ultimately canceled because of weather predictions). As noted, in each instance, any significant overcast prediction precluded image collection from the satellite. Given the long task-scheduling procedures (which were in place for each time period), coupled with other priorities and the satellite lifetime, no alternate SGP images could be obtained.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Investigating Marine Boundary Layer Parameterizations by Combining Observations with Models via State Estimation

In this project we have improved numerical weather prediction analyses and forecasts of low level winds in the marine boundary layer. This has been accomplished with the following tools; The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Weather and Research Forecasting model, WRF, both in his single column (SCM) and three-dimensional (3D) versions; The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Wave Watch III (WWIII); SE algorithms from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART, Anderson et al. 2009); and Observations of key quantities of the lower MBL, including temperature and winds at multiple levels above the sea surface. The experiments with the WRF SCM / DART system have lead to large improvements with respect to a standard WRF configuration, which is currently commonly used by the wind energy industry. The single column model appears to be a tool particularly suitable for off-shore wind energy applications given its accuracy, the ability to quantify uncertainty, and the minimal computational resource requirements. In situations where the impact of an upwind wind park may be of interest in a downwind location, a 3D approach may be more suitable. We have demonstrated that with the WRF 3D / DART system the accuracy of wind predictions (and other meteorological parameters) can be improved over a 3D computational domain, and not only at specific locations. All the scripting systems developed in this project (i.e., to run WRF SCM / DART, WRF 3D / DART, and the coupling between WRF and WWIII) and the several modifications and upgrades made to the WRF SCM model will be shared with the broader community.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Hydrogen Adsorbents with High Volumetric Density: New Materials and System Projections

A high-capacity, low-cost method for storing hydrogen remains one of the primary barriers to the widespread commercialization of fuel cell vehicles. Storage via adsorption is a promising approach due to its fast kinetics, reversibility, and high gravimetric densities. An unfortunate characteristic of adsorptive storage is that high gravimetric densities typically come at the expense of volumetric density (total basis). The goal of this project is to demonstrate best-in-class adsorbents based on metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) that achieve high volumetric and gravimetric H 2 densities simultaneously, while maintaining reversibility and fast kinetics. This is accomplished using a combination ion of high-throughput computational screening and experimental synthesis and characterization. The performance of the most promising materials are projected to the system level by parameterizing system models developed by the Hydrogen Storage Engineering Center of Excellence (HSECoE).

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Notes on Davis EOS: Historical Perspective, Derivations & Physical Considerations

Davis reactant and product semi-empirical EOS have been introduced in a series of publications by W. C. Davis. These EOS are convenient to use in conjunction with reactive burn models to parameterize the thermodynamic response of quiescent high explosives (HE) and the mixture of HE decomposition products. There is a history of development of these EOS with different formulae and functional forms found in different papers. The goal of the present notes is to track that history, clarify the physical motivation behind various modifications to Davis EOS over time, and collect all the relevant formulae in one place.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification for equations of state: copper as an example

Equations of state are essential for providing a fundamental description of materials properties in thermodynamic equilibrium and are used to provide closure relations for hydrodynamics simulations. Generally, equations of state rely on simple physics-based parameterized materials models to inform on the free energy of a material through out a given thermodynamic state space. Historically the parameters of these models have been tuned by hand to fit various experimental data. However, modern optimization and uncertainty quantification techniques allow us to quickly test thousands of parameter combinations and obtain meaningful uncertainty estimates on the parameters, opening opportunities for assessing systematic uncertainties in experiments, assessing model adequacy, and more. In this report, we use Bayesian inference to fit the solid (fcc) equation of state of copper. We focus on fitting five different experimental datasets, including the isobaric density, isobaric heat capacity, room temperature isotherm, principal isentrope, and principal Hugoniot. We fit all five data types simultaneously, and then explore the extent to which combinations of 2 subsets of the 5 datasets can constrain the EOS parameters, as compared to the fit to all 5. This information is useful for investigating the extent to which different datasets can con strain EOS models and thereby help guide experimental investigations in order to best constrain the EOS. We also discuss ways that the methodologies can be used to investigate systematic discrepancies between experiments, as well as how the methods can be used to assess model uncertainty. The framework we develop is general, in that it can be used with a variety of optimization or uncertainty quantification techniques and with a variety of data sources, including both experimental and ab-inito data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data From: Simulating bioclogging effects on dynamic riverbed permeability and infiltration, Water Resources Research

We collected a time series of Russian River infiltration rates to parameterize stochastic model development of infiltration conditions as a function of bioclogging. The time series of infiltration were collected from the Russian River Riverbank Filtration site located in Sonoma County California. Infiltration datasets are shown in units of m/day and were obtained using a seepage meter in 2012. To address the combined effects of bioclogging and disconnection on infiltration, we developed numerical representations of bioclogging processes based on these datasets using a within a one-dimensional, variably saturated flow model representing losing-connected and losing-disconnected rivers. All models and bioclogging formulations were used to create synthetic test cases for bioclogging.This research was supported by the Jane Lewis Fellowship from the University of California, Berkeley, the Sonoma County Water Agency (SCWA), the Roy G. Post Foundation Scholarship, the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Graduate Student Research (SCGSR) Program, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research under award DE-AC02-05CH11231, and the UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SPRUCE Representing Northern Peatland Microtopography and Hydrology within the Community Land Model: Modeling Archive

Here we provide model code, inputs, outputs and evaluation datasets for a new configuration of the Community Land Model (CLM) for SPRUCE, which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for SPRUCE. Our structural and process changes to CLM focus on modifications needed to represent the hydrologic cycle of bogs environment with perched water tables, as well as distinct hydrologic dynamics and vegetation communities of the raised hummock and sunken hollow microtopography characteristic of SPRUCE and other peatland bogs. The modified model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic raised-dome bog in northern Minnesota (S1-Bog), the site for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multimessenger Diagnostics of the Engine behind Core-collapse Supernovae

Abstract Core-collapse supernova explosions play a wide role in astrophysics by producing compact remnants (neutron stars or black holes) and the synthesis and injection of many heavy elements into their host galaxy. Because they are produced in some of the most extreme conditions in the universe, they can also probe physics in extreme conditions (matter at nuclear densities and extreme temperatures and magnetic fields). To quantify the impact of supernovae on both fundamental physics and our understanding of the universe, we must leverage a broad set of observables of this engine. In this paper, we study a subset of these probes using a suite of one-dimensional, parameterized mixing models: ejecta remnants from supernovae, ultraviolet, optical and infrared light curves, and transient gamma-ray emission. We review the other diagnostics and show how the different probes tie together to provide a more clear picture of the supernova engine. Join us in improving and evolving this document through active community engagement. Instructions are provided at this link: https://github.com/clfryer/MM-SNe .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗