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Modeling surface temperature distributions in forest landscapes

A model of the frequency distributions of the spatial variability in surface temperature is presented. Surface temperature data are obtained from two daytime and two nighttime flights of the Thermal IR Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) over forest land in western Oregon in August, 1985. The temperature values are corrected for atmospheric attenuation and thermal radiation emission with the LOWTRAN-6 algorithm. The temperature distributions were modeled with a two-parameter beta probability density distribution and the fit of the model was evaluated by comparison with the TIMS data set. Use of the model's parameters to identify and classify surface types shows good discrimination among various surfaces for the daytime images, with less distinct discrimination for the nighttime images.

Holbo, H. R.↗

Central cores of post-collapse clusters

By means of conventional static models, the modelling of post-collapse-core star clusters is shown. The rationale adopted is that core collapse will cause the formation of binary stars, which stabilize the cluster and make it static again, but with a very high central concentration. It is shown that the models require massive remnant stars at the cluster centers, and that the fitting of static models to post-collapse-core clusters determines how many such stars are needed.

King, Ivan R.↗

Lunar Neutral Exposphere Properties from Pickup Ion Analysis

Composition and structure of neutral constituents in the lunar exosphere can be determined through measurements of phase space distributions of pickup ions borne from the exosphere [1]. An essential point made in an early study [ 1 ] and inferred by recent pickup ion measurements [2, 3] is that much lower neutral exosphere densities can be derived from ion mass spectrometer measurements of pickup ions than can be determined by conventional neutral mass spectrometers or remote sensing instruments. One approach for deriving properties of neutral exospheric source gasses is to first compare observed ion spectra with pickup ion model phase space distributions. Neutral exosphere properties are then inferred by adjusting exosphere model parameters to obtain the best fit between the resulting model pickup ion distributions and the observed ion spectra. Adopting this path, we obtain ion distributions from a new general pickup ion model, an extension of a simpler analytic description obtained from the Vlasov equation with an ion source [4]. In turn, the ion source is formed from a three-dimensional exospheric density distribution, which can range from the classical Chamberlain type distribution to one with variable exobase temperatures and nonthermal constituents as well as those empirically derived. The initial stage of this approach uses the Moon's known neutral He and Na exospheres to deriv e He+ and Na+ pickup ion exospheres, including their phase space distributions, densities and fluxes. The neutral exospheres used are those based on existing models and remote sensing studies. As mentioned, future ion measurements can be used to constrain the pickup ion model and subsequently improve the neutral exosphere descriptions. The pickup ion model is also used to estimate the exosphere sources of recently observed pickup ions on KAGUYA [3]. Future missions carrying ion spectrometers (e.g., ARTEMIS) will be able to study the lunar neutral exosphere with great sensitivity, yielding the necessary ion velocity spectra needed to further analysis of parent neutral exosphere properties.

Hartle, R. E.↗

Aircraft System Identification from Multisine Inputs and Frequency Responses

The identification of aircraft flight dynamics is often performed using frequency responses, which are nonparametric models that quantify the steady-state magnitude and phase of a dynamic system response to sinusoidal inputs, as a function of frequency. Frequency responses are computed from measured input and output data, and then model parameters, such as stability and control derivatives, are estimated to best fit a parametric model to the empirical frequency response data. The utility of this approach is due to the familiarity of engineers with frequency responses, a number of theoretical and practical advantages under specific conditions, the availability of software packages, and many other reasons.

System identification↗

Evidence of a Supermassive Black Hole in the Galaxy NGC 1023 From The Nuclear Stellar Dynamics

We analyze the nuclear stellar dynamics of the SBO galaxy NGC 1023, utilizing observational data both from the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph aboard the Hubble Space Telescope and from the ground. The stellar kinematics measured from these long-slit spectra show rapid rotation (V equals approx. 70 km/s at a distance of O.1 deg = 4.9 pc from the nucleus) and increasing velocity dispersion toward the nucleus (where sigma = 295 +/- 30 km/s). We model the observed stellar kinematics assuming an axisymmetric mass distribution with both two and three integrals of motion. Both modeling techniques point to the presence of a central dark compact mass (which presumably is a supermassive black hole) with confidence > 99%. The isotropic two-integral models yield a best-fitting black hole mass of (6.0 +/- 0.4) x 10(exp 7) solar masses and mass-to-light ratio (M/L(sub v)) of 5.38 +/- 0.08, and the goodness-of-fit (CHI(exp 2)) is insensitive to reasonable values for the galaxy's inclination. The three-integral models, which non-parametrically fit the observed line-of-sight velocity distribution as a function of position in the galaxy, suggest a black hole mass of (3.9 +/- 0.4) x 10(exp 7) solar masses and M/L(sub v) of 5.56 +/- 0.02 (internal errors), and the edge-on models are vastly superior fits over models at other inclinations. The internal dynamics in NGC 1023 as suggested by our best-fit three-integral model shows that the velocity distribution function at the nucleus is tangentially anisotropic, suggesting the presence of a nuclear stellar disk. The nuclear line of sight velocity distribution has enhanced wings at velocities >= 600 km/s from systemic, suggesting that perhaps we have detected a group of stars very close to the central dark mass.

Bower, G. A.↗

Magsat investigation

A computer program was prepared for modeling segments of the Earth's crust allowing for heterogeneity in magnetization in calculating the Earth's field at Magsat heights. This permits investigation of a large number of possible models in assessing the magnetic signatures of subprovinces of the Canadian shield. The fit between the model field and observed fields is optimized in a semi-automatic procedure.

Hall, D. H.↗

A comparison of time domain boundary conditions for acoustic waves in wave guides

Researchers consider several types of boundary conditions in the context of time domain models for acoustic waves. Experiments with four different duct terminations (hard wall, free radiation, foam, and wedge) were carried out in a wave duct from which reflection coefficients over a wide frequency range were measured. These reflection coefficients were used to estimate parameters in the time domain boundary conditions. A comparison of the relative merits of the models in describing the data is presented. Boundary conditions which yield a good fit of the model to the experimental data were found for all duct terminations except the wedge.

Banks, H. T.↗

Participant-Observations of 'Effective Dialogue' at a NASA Center: Toward New Paradigm

Four recently instituted 'dialogic' communication forums at a NASA center are described and analyzed. Their discourse is compared to a (typical) paradigmatic model of dialogic discourse principles. It is argued that dialogue which does not fit the exemplary model may nonetheless be effective for building community, investment, and democratic exchange. The study further suggests that consensus and teamwork may be less evident (and perhaps less effective) than individual voice and oppositional stance.

Effective Dialogue↗

Derivation of Aero-Induced Fluctuating Pressure Environments for Ares I-X

A description is given of the external aero-inducted fluctuating pressure model which was fit and anchored to wind tunnel data from the past 40 years. This model is based upon the assumption that the flow around a vehicle can be divided into discrete flow zones with independent fluctuating pressure properties. The model is then used to derive fluctuating pressure environments during ascent for the Ares I-X test vehicle. A sensitivity study of the structural response to the spatial correlation of the fluctuating pressures is also performed.

Yang, Michael Y.↗

A Population Pharmacokinetic Model for Disposition in Plasma, Saliva and Urine of Scopolamine after Intranasal Administration to Healthy Human Subjects

An intranasal gel formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Space Motion Sickness. The bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) were evaluated under the Food and Drug Administration guidelines for clinical trials with an Investigative New Drug (IND) protocol. The aim of this project was to develop a PK model that can predict the relationship between plasma, saliva and urinary scopolamine concentrations using data collected from the IND clinical trials with INSCOP. Methods: Twelve healthy human subjects were administered three dose levels (0.1, 0.2 and 0.4 mg) of INSCOP. Serial blood, saliva and urine samples were collected between 5 min and 24 h after dosing and scopolamine concentrations were measured by using a validated LC‐MS‐MS assay. Pharmacokinetic Compartmental models, using actual dosing and sampling times, were built using Phoenix (version 1.2). Model selection was based on the likelihood ratio test on the difference of criteria (‐2LL) and comparison of the quality of fit plots. Results: The best structural model for INSCOP (minimal ‐2LL= 502.8) was established. It consisted of one compartment each for plasma, saliva and urine, respectively, which were connected with linear transport processes except the nonlinear PK process from plasma to saliva compartment. The best‐fit estimates of PK parameters from individual PK compartmental analysis and Population PK model analysis were shown in Tables 1 and 2, respectively. Conclusion: A population PK model that could predict population and individual PK of scopolamine in plasma, saliva and urine after dosing was developed and validated. Incorporating a non‐linear transfer from plasma to saliva compartments resulted in a significantly improved model fitting. The model could be used to predict scopolamine plasma concentrations from salivary and urinary drug levels, allowing non‐invasive therapeutic monitoring of scopolamine in space and other remote environments.

Wu, L.↗

Parameter estimation and error analysis in environmental modeling and computation

A method for the estimation of parameters and error analysis in the development of nonlinear modeling for environmental impact assessment studies is presented. The modular computer program can interactively fit different nonlinear models to the same set of data, dynamically changing the error structure associated with observed values. Parameter estimation techniques and sequential estimation algorithms employed in parameter identification and model selection are first discussed. Then, least-square parameter estimation procedures are formulated, utilizing differential or integrated equations, and are used to define a model for association of error with experimentally observed data.

Kalmaz, E. E.↗

A Swift Look at SN 2011fe: The Earliest Ultraviolet Observations of a Type Ia Supernova

We present the earliest ultraviolet (UV) observations of the bright Type Ia supernova SN 2011fe/PTF11kly in the nearby galaxy M101 at a distance of only 6.4 Mpc. It was discovered shortly after explosion by the Palomar Transient Factory and first observed by Swift/UVOT about a day after explosion. The early UV light is well-defined, with approx. 20 data points per filter in the 5 days after explosion. With these early UV observations, we extend the near-UV template of SNe Ia to earlier times for comparison with observations at low and high redshift and report fits from semiempirical models of the explosion. We find the early UV count rates to be well fit by the superposition of two parabolic curves. Finally, we use the early UV flux measurements to examine a possible shock interaction with a non-degenerate companion. We find that even a solar mass companion at a distance of a few solar radii is unlikely at more than 95% confidence.

Oates, Samantha↗

Satellite camera image navigation

Pixels within a satellite camera (1, 2) image are precisely located in terms of latitude and longitude on a celestial body, such as the earth, being imaged. A computer (60) on the earth generates models (40, 50) of the satellite's orbit and attitude, respectively. The orbit model (40) is generated from measurements of stars and landmarks taken by the camera (1, 2), and by range data. The orbit model (40) is an expression of the satellite's latitude and longitude at the subsatellite point, and of the altitude of the satellite, as a function of time, using as coefficients (K) the six Keplerian elements at epoch. The attitude model (50) is based upon star measurements taken by each camera (1, 2). The attitude model (50) is a set of expressions for the deviations in a set of mutually orthogonal reference optical axes (x, y, z) as a function of time, for each camera (1, 2). Measured data is fit into the models (40, 50) using a walking least squares fit algorithm. A transformation computer (66 ) transforms pixel coordinates as telemetered by the camera (1, 2) into earth latitude and longitude coordinates, using the orbit and attitude models (40, 50).

Kamel, Ahmed A.↗

Low Order Equivalent System Identification for the Tu-144LL Supersonic Transport Aircraft

Low order equivalent system models were identified from flight test data for the Tu-144LL supersonic transport aircraft. Flight test maneuvers were executed by Russian and American test Pilots flying the aircraft from Zhukovsky airfield outside Moscow, Russia. Flight tests included longitudinal and lateral / directional maneuvers at supersonic cruise flight conditions. Piloted frequency sweeps and multi-step maneuvers were used to generate data for closed loop low order equivalent system modeling. Model parameters were estimated using a flexible. high accuracy Fourier transform and an equation error / output error (EE/OE) formulation in the frequency domain. Results were compared to parameter estimates obtained using spectral estimation and subsequent least squares fit to frequency response data in Bode plots. Modeling results from the two methods agreed well for both a frequency sweep and multiple concatenated multi-step maneuvers. For a single multi-step maneuvers the EE/OE method gave a better model fit with improved prediction capability. A summary of closed loop low order equivalent system identification results for the Tu-144LL, including estimated parameters, standard errors, and flying qualities level predictions, were computed and tabulated.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

Low Order Equivalent System for the Tu-144LL Supersonic Transport Aircraft

Low order equivalent system models were identified from flight test data for the Tu- 144LL supersonic transport aircraft. Flight test maneuvers were executed by Russian and American test pilots flying the aircraft from Zhukovsky airfield outside Moscow, Russia. Flight tests included longitudinal and lateral/directional maneuvers at supersonic cruise flight conditions. Piloted frequency sweeps and multi-step maneuvers were used to Generate data for p closed loop low order equivalent system modeling Model parameters were estimated using a flexible, high accuracy Fourier transform and an equation error output error (EE/OE) formulation in the frequency domain. Results were compared to parameter estimates obtained using spectral estimation and subsequent least squares fit to frequency response data in Bode plots. Modeling results from the two methods a-reed well for both a frequency sweep and multiple concatenated multi-step maneuvers. For a single multi-step maneuver, the EE/OE method gave a better model fit with improved prediction capability. A summary of closed loop low order equivalent system identification results for the Tu-144LL. including estimated parameters, standard errors, and flying qualities level predictions, were computed and tabulated.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

Induction of Chromosomal Aberrations at Fluences of Less Than One HZE Particle per Cell Nucleus

The assumption of a linear dose response used to describe the biological effects of high LET radiation is fundamental in radiation protection methodologies. We investigated the dose response for chromosomal aberrations for exposures corresponding to less than one particle traversal per cell nucleus by high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei. Human fibroblast and lymphocyte cells where irradiated with several low doses of <0.1 Gy, and several higher doses of up to 1 Gy with O (77 keV/ (long-s)m), Si (99 keV/ (long-s)m), Fe (175 keV/ (long-s)m), Fe (195 keV/ (long-s)m) or Fe (240 keV/ (long-s)m) particles. Chromosomal aberrations at first mitosis were scored using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with chromosome specific paints for chromosomes 1, 2 and 4 and DAPI staining of background chromosomes. Non-linear regression models were used to evaluate possible linear and non-linear dose response models based on these data. Dose responses for simple exchanges for human fibroblast irradiated under confluent culture conditions were best fit by non-linear models motivated by a non-targeted effect (NTE). Best fits for the dose response data for human lymphocytes irradiated in blood tubes were a NTE model for O and a linear response model fit best for Si and Fe particles. Additional evidence for NTE were found in low dose experiments measuring gamma-H2AX foci, a marker of double strand breaks (DSB), and split-dose experiments with human fibroblasts. Our results suggest that simple exchanges in normal human fibroblasts have an important NTE contribution at low particle fluence. The current and prior experimental studies provide important evidence against the linear dose response assumption used in radiation protection for HZE particles and other high LET radiation at the relevant range of low doses.

Hada, Megumi↗

Properties of Martian Hematite at Meridiani Planum by Simultaneous Fitting of Mars Mossbauer Spectra

Mossbauer spectrometers [1] on the two Mars Exploration Rovers (MERs) have been making measurements of surface rocks and soils since January 2004, recording spectra in 10-K-wide temperature bins ranging from 180 K to 290 K. Initial analyses focused on modeling individual spectra directly as acquired or, to increase statistical quality, as sums of single-rock or soil spectra over temperature or as sums over similar rock or soil type [2, 3]. Recently, we have begun to apply simultaneous fitting procedures [4] to Mars Mossbauer data [5-7]. During simultaneous fitting (simfitting), many spectra are modeled similarly and fit together to a single convergence criterion. A satisfactory simfit with parameter values consistent among all spectra is more likely than many single-spectrum fits of the same data because fitting parameters are shared among multiple spectra in the simfit. Consequently, the number of variable parameters, as well as the correlations among them, is greatly reduced. Here we focus on applications of simfitting to interpret the hematite signature in Moessbauer spectra acquired at Meridiani Planum, results of which were reported in [7]. The Spectra. We simfit two sets of spectra with large hematite content [7]: 1) 60 rock outcrop spectra from Eagle Crater; and 2) 46 spectra of spherule-rich lag deposits (Table 1). Spectra of 10 different targets acquired at several distinct temperatures are included in each simfit set. In the table, each Sol (martian day) represents a different target, NS is the number of spectra for a given sol, and NT is the number of spectra for a given temperature. The spectra are indexed to facilitate definition of parameter relations and constraints. An example spectrum is shown in Figure 1, together with a typical fitting model. Results. We have shown that simultaneous fitting is effective in analyzing a large set of related MER Mossbauer spectra. By using appropriate constraints, we derive target-specific quantities and the temperature dependence of certain parameters. By examining different fitting models, we demonstrate an improved fit for martian hematite modeled with two sextets rather than as a single sextet, and show that outcrop and spherule hematite are distinct. For outcrop, the weaker sextet indicates a Morin transition typical of well-crystallized and chemically pure hematite, while most of the outcrop hematite remains in a weakly ferromagnetic state at all temperatures. For spherule spectra, both sextets are consistent with weakly ferromagnetic hematite with no Morin transition. For both hematites, there is evidence for a range of particle sizes.

Agresti, D. G.↗

Unified constitutive model for single crystal deformation behavior with applications

Single crystal materials are being used in gas turbine airfoils and are candidates for other hot section components because of their increased temperature capabilities and resistance to thermal fatigue. Development of a constitutive model which assesses the inelastic behavior of these materials has been studied in 2 NASA programs: Life Prediction and Constitutive Models for Engine Hot Section Anisotropic Materials and Biaxial Constitutive Equation Development for Single Crystals. The model has been fit to a large body of constitutive data for single crystal PWA 1480 material. The model uses a unified approach for computing total inelastic strains (creep plus plasticity) on crystallographic slip systems reproducing observed directional and strain rate effects as a natural consequence of the summed slip system quantities. The model includes several of the effects that have been reported to influence deformation in single crystal materials, such as shear stress, latent hardening, and cross slip. The model is operational in a commercial Finite Element code and is being installed in a Boundary Element Method code.

Walker, K. P.↗