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Space plasma physics research

During the course of this grant, work was performed on a variety of topics and there were a number of significant accomplishments. A summary of these accomplishments is included. The topics studied include empirical model data base, data reduction for archiving, semikinetic modeling of low energy plasma in the inner terrestrial magnetosphere and ionosphere, O(+) outflows, equatorial plasma trough, and plasma wave ray-tracing studies. A list of publications and presentations which have resulted from this research is also included.

Comfort, Richard H.↗

Modular Engine Noise Component Prediction System (MCP) Program Users' Guide

This is a user's manual for Modular Engine Noise Component Prediction System (MCP). This computer code allows the user to predict turbofan engine noise estimates. The program is based on an empirical procedure that has evolved over many years at The Boeing Company. The data used to develop the procedure include both full-scale engine data and small-scale model data, and include testing done by Boeing, by the engine manufacturers, and by NASA. In order to generate a noise estimate, the user specifies the appropriate engine properties (including both geometry and performance parameters), the microphone locations, the atmospheric conditions, and certain data processing options. The version of the program described here allows the user to predict three components: inlet-radiated fan noise, aft-radiated fan noise, and jet noise. MCP predicts one-third octave band noise levels over the frequency range of 50 to 10,000 Hertz. It also calculates overall sound pressure levels and certain subjective noise metrics (e.g., perceived noise levels).

Golub, Robert A.↗

Sea State and Weather Capability for NASA's Constellation Program

Marine weather and related parameters such as wind, ocean wave height and period, air temperature, sea surface temperature, visibility, and potential for icing are critical to the design, operation, and safety of crewed space vehicles. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Constellation Program requires detailed assessment of marine weather related parameters that may be encountered during launch, abort, landing, and crew rescue operations for the crewed Axes/Orion space vehicles. This information is required for both space vehicle design and operational purposes. The space vehicles must be designed such that they cam withstand the environment they are likely to encounter. The crewed Axes/Orion space vehicles will launch from NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida for both International Space Station (ISS) missions with 51.6deg inclination orbits and lunar missions with approximately 280 inclination orbits. Since both missions will fly ever the Atlantic Ocean on ascent to orbit and will fly over the Pacific Ocean on descent from orbit, an unlikely but possible emergency abort could require parachuting the Orion capsule and crew into the ocean. This situation could potentially put the crew in an isolated and hazardous environment for severn hours while they await rescue. Therefore, abort, landing, and crew rescue elements of the Constellation Program must address weather related parameters on a global scale. This paper describes buoy measurement data, sea surface temperature satellite data, and sea state computer model data that are being utilized by the Constellation Program to address these design and operational issues.

Barbre, R. E.↗

Sea State and Weather Assessment Capability for NASA's Constellation Program

Marine weather and related parameters such as wind, ocean wave height and period, air temperature, sea surface temperature, visibility, and potential for icing are critical to the design, operation, and safety of crewed space vehicles. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Constellation Program requires detailed assessment of marine weather related parameters that may be encountered during launch, abort, landing, and crew rescue operations for the crewed Ares/Orion space vehicles. This information is required for both space vehicle design and operational purposes. The space vehicles must be designed such that they can withstand the environment they are likely to encounter. The crewed Ares/Orion space vehicles will launch from NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida for both International Space Station (ISS) missions with 51.6 o inclination orbits and lunar missions with approximately 28 inclination orbits. Since both missions will fly over the Atlantic Ocean on ascent to orbit and will fly over the Pacific Ocean on descent from orbit, an unlikely but possible emergency abort could require parachuting the Orion capsule and crew into the ocean. This situation could potentially put the crew in an isolated and hazardous environment for several hours while they await rescue. Therefore, abort, landing, and crew rescue elements of the Constellation Program must address weather related parameters on a global scale. This paper describes buoy measurement data, sea surface temperature satellite data, and sea state computer model data that are being utilized by the Constellation Program to address these design and operational issues.

Barbre, B. J.↗

Deformable phrase level attention: A flexible approach for improving AI based medical coding

Objective: Improving the AI-driven automated medical encoding of clinical text plays a vital role in gathering information on the occurrence of diseases to improve population-level health. This work presents a novel attention mechanism designed to enhance text classification models and ensure appropriate classification of medical concepts in unstructured electronic health records. Materials and Methods: We developed a deformable, phrase-level attention mechanism to identify important lexical word-level and contextual phrase-level information from clinical text documents. We evaluated conventional and transformer-based deep learning models that we extended with our attention mechanism on the extraction of critical cancer information (e.g., site, subsite, laterality, histology, behavior) from 629,908 electronic pathology reports and on the automated medical encoding of 52,722 hospital discharge summaries. Results: Transformer-based models with the deformable, phrase-level attention mechanism achieved the best performance on the extraction of critical cancer information from pathology reports. Conventional- and transformer-based models show similar or better performance than their baseline counterparts on the automated medical encoding of clinical documents. Discussion: The addition of phrase-level information allowed models extended with our proposed method to outperform standard word-level attention. Our method showed favorable properties for the real-world application in terms of model robustness and phenotyping. These results indicate that our method is promising for automated data harmonization for common data models. Conclusion: This work proposes a novel deformable, phrase-level attention mechanism that enhances text classification models in the extraction of medical concepts from clinical text documents. We demonstrate strong performances on two clinical text datasets and showcase real-world deployability of our method.

Automated medical encoding↗

Development of an open-source regional data assimilation system in PEcAn v. 1.7.2: application to carbon cycle reanalysis across the contiguous US using SIPNET

Abstract. The ability to monitor, understand, and predict the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle requires the capacity to robustly and coherently synthesize multiple streams of information that each provide partial information about different pools and fluxes. In this study, we introduce a new terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation system, built on the PEcAn model–data eco-informatics system, and its application for the development of a proof-of-concept carbon “reanalysis” product that harmonizes carbon pools (leaf, wood, soil) and fluxes (GPP, Ra, Rh, NEE) across the contiguous United States from 1986–2019. We first calibrated this system against plant trait and flux tower net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using a novel emulated hierarchical Bayesian approach. Next, we extended the Tobit–Wishart ensemble filter (TWEnF) state data assimilation (SDA) framework, a generalization of the common ensemble Kalman filter which accounts for censored data and provides a fully Bayesian estimate of model process error, to a regional-scale system with a calibrated localization. Combined with additional workflows for propagating parameter, initial condition, and driver uncertainty, this represents the most complete and robust uncertainty accounting available for terrestrial carbon models. Our initial reanalysis was run on an irregular grid of ∼ 500 points selected using a stratified sampling method to efficiently capture environmental heterogeneity. Remotely sensed observations of aboveground biomass (Landsat LandTrendr) and leaf area index (LAI) (MODIS MOD15) were sequentially assimilated into the SIPNET model. Reanalysis soil carbon, which was indirectly constrained based on modeled covariances, showed general agreement with SoilGrids, an independent soil carbon data product. Reanalysis NEE, which was constrained based on posterior ensemble weights, also showed good agreement with eddy flux tower NEE and reduced root mean square error (RMSE) compared to the calibrated forecast. Ultimately, PEcAn's new open-source regional data assimilation framework provides a scalable workflow for harmonizing multiple data constraints and providing a uniform synthetic platform for carbon monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) as well as accelerating terrestrial carbon cycle research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Atmosphere Observing System (AOS): Synergistic Aerosol, Cloud, Convection and Precipitation Measurement and Modeling Systems

The 2017 Decadal Survey (DS) highlighted Earth System Science themes, science and application questions, and several high priority objectives that have led to the inclusion of Aerosols (A) and Clouds-Convection-Precipitation (CCP) as Designated Observables (DOs). On June 1, 2018, several NASA centers (GSFC, LaRC, JPL, MSFC, GRC and ARC) submitted a joint Study Plan to the NASA Earth Science Division for the Aerosol (A) and Cloud, Convection, and Precipitation (CCP) Pre-formulation Study (ACCP), with the ACCP Study concluding in early 2021. The new mission now in pre-phase A is being referred to as the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS), an integral part of NASA’s Earth System Observatory (ESO) strategy. The DS and the ACCP team recognized the science merit in combining the A and CCP DOs for both enhancing the ability to address a number of science objectives and also to provide an expanded capability to address additional objectives beyond those of the individual DOs. A critical element of the ACCP observing strategy is to make extensive use of new passive and active sensors as well as of the so-called Program-of-Record (PoR), complemented by a fully integrated sub-orbital component. In order to achieve maximum benefit, all these observations need to be integrated into comprehensive observing and modeling/data assimilation systems. Such an approach requires comprehensive model-data synthesis capabilities that needs to be conceived in conjunction with the space-based and suborbital components of AOS. In this presentation we will summarize the major science goals of AOS including cloud feedbacks, atmospheric convection, emphasizing aerosol processes and aerosol radiative effects, and the synergistic aspects of clouds-precipitation-aerosol interactions. We will describe examples of how AOS data will be used across space and time to better initialize forecasts and train modeling systems, and to infuse models and data assimilation systems with AOS data for advancing operational predictions and to generate expanded hindcasts and reconstruction of the climate record.

Arlindo da Silva↗

Rapid calculation of terrain parameters for radiation modeling from digital elevation data

Digital elevation models are now widely used to calculate terrain parameters to determine incoming solar and longwave radiation for use in surface climate models, interpretation of remote-sensing data, and parameters in hydrologic models. Because of the large number of points in an elevation grid, fast algorithms are useful to save computation time. A description is given of rapid methods for calculating slope and azimuth, solar illumination angle, horizons, and view factors for radiation from sky and terrain. Calculation time is reduced by fast algorithms and lookup tables.

Dozier, Jeff↗

Survey Data for Geomagnetic Field Modelling

The survey data discussed here are based on observations made relatively recently at points on land. A special subset of land survey data consists of those made at specially designated sites known as repeat stations. This class of data will be discussed in another part of this document (Barton, 1991b), so only the briefest of references will be made to repeat stations here. This discussion of 'ordinary' land survey data begins with a description of the spatial and temporal distributions of available survey data based on observations made since 1900. (The reason for this rather arbitrary choice of cut-off date is that this was the value used in the production of the computer file of magnetic survey data (land, sea, air, satellite, rocket) that is the primary source of data for geomagnetic main-field modeling). This is followed by a description of the various types of error to which these survey data are, or may be, subject and a discussion of the likely effects of such errors on field models produced from the data. Finally, there is a short section on the availability of geomagnetic survey data, which also describes how the data files are maintained.

Barraclough, D. R.↗

Physics-Driven Convolutional Autoencoder Approach for CFD Data Compressions: Preprint

With the growing size and complexity of turbulent flow models, data compression approaches are of the utmost importance to analyze, visualize, or restart the simulations. Recently, in-situ autoencoder-based compression approaches have been proposed and shown to be effective at producing reduced representations of turbulent flow data. However, these approaches focus solely on training the model using point-wise sample reconstruction losses that do not take advantage of the physical properties of turbulent flows. In this paper, we show that training autoencoders with additional physics-informed regularizations, e.g., enforcing incompressibility and preserving enstrophy, improves the compression model in three ways: (i) the compressed data better conform to known physics for homogeneous isotropic turbulence without negatively impacting point-wise reconstruction quality, (ii) inspection of the gradients of the trained model uncovers changes to the learned compression mapping that can facilitate the use of explainability techniques, and (iii) as a performance byproduct, training losses are shown to converge up to 12x faster than the baseline model.

auto-encoders↗

Real-Time Onboard Global Nonlinear Aerodynamic Modeling from Flight Data

Flight test and modeling techniques were developed to accurately identify global nonlinear aerodynamic models onboard an aircraft. The techniques were developed and demonstrated during piloted flight testing of an Aermacchi MB-326M Impala jet aircraft. Advanced piloting techniques and nonlinear modeling techniques based on fuzzy logic and multivariate orthogonal function methods were implemented with efficient onboard calculations and flight operations to achieve real-time maneuver monitoring and analysis, and near-real-time global nonlinear aerodynamic modeling and prediction validation testing in flight. Results demonstrated that global nonlinear aerodynamic models for a large portion of the flight envelope were identified rapidly and accurately using piloted flight test maneuvers during a single flight, with the final identified and validated models available before the aircraft landed.

Brandon, Jay M.↗

Semantic Property Graph for Scalable Knowledge Graph Analytics

Graphs are a natural and fundamental representation to describe entities, relationships, activities, and evolution of complex systems. Many domains such as communication, citation, procurement, biology, social media, and transportation can be modeled as a set of entities and their relationships. Resource Description Framework (RDF) and Labeled Property Graph (LPG) are two of the most used data models to encode information in a graph. Both models are similar in terms of using basic graph elements such as nodes and edges but differ in terms of the modeling approach, expressibility, serialization, and target applications. RDF is a flexible data exchange model for expressing information about entities but it tends to a have high memory footprint and inefficient storage, which does not make it a natural choice to perform scalable graph analytics. In contrast, LPG has gained traction as a reliable model to perform scalable graph analytic tasks such as sub-graph matching, network alignment, and real-time knowledge graph query. It provides efficient storage, fast traversal, and flexibility to model various real-world domains. At the same time, the LPG lacks the support of a formal knowledge representation such as an ontology to provide automated knowledge inference. We propose Semantic Property Graph (SPG) as a logical projection of reified RDF into the LPG model. SPG continues to use RDF ontology to define the type hierarchy of the projected graph and validate it against a given ontology. We present a framework to convert reified RDF graphs into SPG using two different computing environments. We also present cloud-based graph migration capabilities using Amazon Web Services.

Purohit, Sumit↗

Modeling Water Quality in Watersheds: From Here to the Next Generation

In this synthesis, we assess present research and anticipate future development needs in modeling water quality in watersheds. We first discuss areas of potential improvement in the representation of freshwater systems pertaining to water quality, including representation of environmental interfaces, in-stream water quality and process interactions, soil health and land management, and (peri-)urban areas. In addition, we provide insights into the contemporary challenges in the practices of watershed water quality modeling, including quality control of monitoring data, model parameterization and calibration, uncertainty management, scale mismatches and provisioning of modeling tools. Finally, we make three recommendations to provide a path forward for improving watershed water quality modeling science, infrastructure and practices. These include building stronger collaborations between experimentalists and modelers, bridging gaps between modelers and stakeholders, and cultivating and applying procedural knowledge to better govern and support water quality modeling processes within organizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data assimilation and model evaluation experiment datasets

The Institute for Naval Oceanography, in cooperation with Naval Research Laboratories and universities, executed the Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiment (DAMEE) for the Gulf Stream region during fiscal years 1991-1993. Enormous effort has gone into the preparation of several high-quality and consistent datasets for model initialization and verification. This paper describes the preparation process, the temporal and spatial scopes, the contents, the structure, etc., of these datasets. The goal of DAMEE and the need of data for the four phases of experiment are briefly stated. The preparation of DAMEE datasets consisted of a series of processes: (1) collection of observational data; (2) analysis and interpretation; (3) interpolation using the Optimum Thermal Interpolation System package; (4) quality control and re-analysis; and (5) data archiving and software documentation. The data products from these processes included a time series of 3D fields of temperature and salinity, 2D fields of surface dynamic height and mixed-layer depth, analysis of the Gulf Stream and rings system, and bathythermograph profiles. To date, these are the most detailed and high-quality data for mesoscale ocean modeling, data assimilation, and forecasting research. Feedback from ocean modeling groups who tested this data was incorporated into its refinement. Suggestions for DAMEE data usages include (1) ocean modeling and data assimilation studies, (2) diagnosis and theoretical studies, and (3) comparisons with locally detailed observations.

Lai, Chung-Cheng A.↗

Enabling Robust Exoplanet Atmospheric Retrievals with Gaussian Processes

Atmospheric retrievals are essential tools for interpreting exoplanet transmission and eclipse spectra, enabling quantitative constraints on the chemical composition, aerosol properties, and thermal structure of planetary atmospheres. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) offers unprecedented spectral precision, resolution, and wavelength coverage, unlocking transformative insights into the formation, evolution, climate, and potential habitability of planetary systems. However, this opportunity is accompanied by challenges: modeling assumptions and unaccounted-for noise or signal sources can bias retrieval outcomes and their interpretation. To address these limitations, we introduce a Gaussian process (GP)-aided atmospheric retrieval framework that flexibly accounts for unmodeled features and correlated noise in exoplanet spectra. We validate this method on synthetic JWST observations, and show that GP-aided retrievals reduce bias in inferred abundances and better capture model–data mismatches than traditional approaches. We also introduce the concept of mean squared error to quantify the trade-off between bias and variance, arguing that this metric more accurately reflects retrieval performance than bias alone. We then reanalyze the NIRISS/SOSS JWST transmission spectrum of WASP-96 b, finding that GP-aided retrievals yield broader constraints on CO 2 and H 2 O, possibly alleviating tension between previous retrieval results and equilibrium predictions. Our GP framework provides precise and accurate constraints while highlighting regions where models fail to explain the data. As JWST matures and future facilities come online, a deeper understanding of the limitations of both data and models will be essential, and GP-enabled retrievals like the one presented here offer a principled path forward.

Rotman, Yoav [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (Unit↗

A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences

The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×10^6 sq.km, compared to 6.46×10^6 sq.km for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×10^6 sq.km for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; and LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally, we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations and simulations for future climate with moderate (1 %/yr) CO2 increase show a relationship between LIG sea ice and sea ice simulated under CO2 increase around the years of doubling CO2. The LIG may therefore yield insight into likely 21st century Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.

Arctic sea ice↗

A Risk-Informed Approach to Trustworthiness Assessment in Digital Twins-Based Autonomous Control

In autonomous control systems, digital twins (DTs) are used to perform diagnostic and prognostic functions. The trustworthiness of these DTs is dependent on quality and coverage of the training data, model accuracy and integrity of sensor data. This work introduces a methodology to determine the trustworthiness of a DT system given faulty sensor data using a risk informed approach. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are used to propagate uncertainties and determine the probability of trustable recommendations. The decision to trust the control action provided by the DT is based on the DT output, expert opinion, and severity of problems. The performance of DTs is reliant on the data they are trained on. When they encounter out of distribution data, the trustworthiness of the recommendations decreases. To address this issue, we include an expert component that provides input on sensor degradation. For this, we utilize a generative artificial intelligence (AI) model, such as Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT). The GPT functions as an expert with broad knowledge. The GPT is fine-tuned to understand and discriminate sensor degradation scenarios using manufactured data. This methodology is demonstrated through a case study on a Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System (NAMAC) during a steady state scenario. Various sensor degradation types with different severity levels are considered. Degraded sensor data is processed by the DT system and the fine-tuned GPT. Finally, using the BBN, we combine the GPT information and the DT output with its sources of uncertainty. This provides an output regarding the trustworthiness of the DT recommendation.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Combining Observations and Models: A Review of the CARDAMOM Framework for Data‐Constrained Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

The rapid increase in the volume and variety of terrestrial biosphere observations (i.e., remote sensing data and in situ measurements) offers a unique opportunity to derive ecological insights, refine process‐based models, and improve forecasting for decision support. However, despite their potential, ecological observations have primarily been used to benchmark process‐based models, as many past and current models lack the capability to directly integrate observations and their associated uncertainties for parameterization. In contrast, data assimilation frameworks such as the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) and its suite of process‐based models, known as the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon Model (DALEC), are specifically designed for model‐data fusion. This review, motivated by a recent CARDAMOM community workshop, examines the development and applications of CARDAMOM, with an emphasis on its role in advancing ecosystem process understanding. CARDAMOM employs a Bayesian approach, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to enable data‐driven calibration of DALEC parameters and initial states (i.e., carbon pool sizes) through observation operators. CARDAMOM's unique ability to retrieve localized model process parameters from diverse datasets—ranging from in situ measurements to global satellite observations—makes it a highly flexible tool for analyzing spatially variable ecosystem responses to environmental change. However, assimilating these data also presents challenges, including data quality issues that propagate into model skill, as well as trade‐offs between model complexity, parameter equifinality, and predictive performance. We discuss potential solutions to these challenges, such as reducing parameter equifinality by incorporating new observations. This review also offers community recommendations for incorporating emerging datasets, integrating machine learning techniques, strengthening collaboration with remote sensing, field, and modeling communities, and expanding CARDAMOM's relevance for localized ecosystem monitoring and decision‐making. CARDAMOM enables a deep, mechanistic understanding of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics that cannot be achieved through empirical analyses of observational datasets or weakly constrained models alone.

Bayesian inference↗