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Mission Concept Design for Autonomous Space Missions using Mission-Level Modeling and Simulation

NASA’s Europa Lander mission is to search for biosignatures on Europa based on in-situ science using a lander architecture. This mission presents a set of challenges that requires a high level of autonomy on the lander system, leading to the need for a new operational paradigm that supports better collaboration and coordination between the lander and the ground operations team. M\&S is used for both designing the onboard system-level autonomy and the ground operations paradigm that allows effective and efficient collaboration and coordination between the lander and the ground operations team. In this paper, M\&S as applied to the design of new mission and operational concepts will be discussed. At its current early stage of the mission development for Europa Lander, the M\&S is used to explore different mission concepts and gain insights for design (formative) rather than to verify and validate fully designed mission concepts quantitatively (summative). Organically, we established a new approach to mission and operational concept exploration using high-fidelity modeling and simulation. M\&S has been an integral part of the approach of defining constraints and assertions, designing mission concepts, assessing (i.e., simulating them), and discovering insights, which feeds back to the definition an design steps. This organically-established approach provided important benefits to the project at its early phase of the development by enabling the project team to be able to build shared understanding of impacts from design characteristics, constraints, and their interactions on the mission performance.

Ye, Sean↗

Australian tidal currents – assessment of a barotropic model (COMPAS v1.3.0 rev6631) with an unstructured grid

While the variations of tidal range are large and fairly well known across Australia (less than 1 m near Perth but more than 14 m in King Sound), the properties of the tidal currents are not. We describe a new regional model of Australian tides and assess it against a validation dataset comprising tidal height and velocity constituents at 615 tide gauge sites and 95 current meter sites. The model is a barotropic implementation of COMPAS, an unstructured-grid primitive-equation model that is forced at the open boundaries by TPXO9v1. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the modelled M2 height amplitude is 8.8 cm, or 12 % of the 73 cm mean observed amplitude. The MAE of phase (10°), however, is significant, so the M2 mean magnitude of vector error (MMVE, 18.2 cm) is significantly greater. The root sum square over the eight major constituents is 26 % of the observed amplitude. We conclude that while the model has skill at height in all regions, there is definitely room for improvement (especially at some specific locations). For the M2 major axis velocity amplitude, the MAE across the 95 current meter sites, where the observed amplitude ranges from 0.1 to 156 cm s −1 , is 6.9 cm s −1 , or 22 % of the 31.7 cm s −1 observed mean. This nationwide average result is encouraging, but it conceals a very large regional variation. Relative errors of the tidal current amplitudes on the narrow shelves of New South Wales (NSW) and Western Australia exceed 100 %, but tidal currents are weak and negligible there compared to non-tidal currents, so the tidal errors are of little practical significance. Looking nationwide, we show that the model has predictive value for much of the 79 % of Australia's shelf seas where tides are a major component of the total velocity variability. In descending order this includes the Bass Strait, the Kimberley to Arnhem Land, and southern Great Barrier Reef regions. There is limited observational evidence to confirm that the model is also valuable for currents in other regions across northern Australia. We plan to commence publishing “unofficial” tidal current predictions for chosen regions in the near future based on both our COMPAS model and the validation dataset we have assembled.

Tidal currents↗

Magnetic field-temperature phase diagram of the spin-$\frac{1}{2}$ triangular lattice antiferromagnet KYbSe 2

A quantum spin liquid (QSL) is a state of matter characterized by fractionalized quasiparticle excitations, quantum entanglement, and a lack of long-range magnetic order. However, QSLs have evaded definitive experimental observation. Several Yb 3+ -based triangular lattice antiferromagnets with effective 𝑆 = $\frac{1}{2}$ have been suggested to stabilize the QSL state as the ground state. Here, in this work, we build a comprehensive magnetic temperature phase diagram of a high-quality single crystalline KYbSe 2 via heat capacity and magnetocaloric effect down to 30 mK with magnetic field applied along the 𝑎 axis. At zero magnetic field, we observe the magnetic long-range order at 𝑇 N =0.29 K entering 120 degrees ordered state in heat capacity, consistent with neutron scattering studies. Analysis of the low-temperature (𝑇) specific heat (𝐶) at zero magnetic field indicates linear 𝑇 dependence of 𝐶/𝑇 and a broad hump of 𝐶/𝑇 in the proximate QSL region above 𝑇 N . By applying magnetic field, we observe the up-up-down phase with 1/3 magnetization plateau and oblique phases, in addition to two new phases. These observations strongly indicate that while KYbSe 2 closely exhibits characteristics resembling an ideal triangular lattice, deviations may exist, such as the effect of the next-nearest-neighbor exchange interaction, calling for careful consideration for spin Hamiltonian modeling. Further investigations into tuning parameters, such as chemical pressure, could potentially induce an intriguing QSL phase in the material.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Completion design improvement using a deep convolutional network

Maximizing stimulated natural and hydraulic fracture network is one of the primary hydraulic fracturing concerns for economic production from a horizontal shale gas well. Geomechanical facies and preexisting fractures in each stage are identified based on similarities in formation characteristics to optimize the locations of perforation clusters. This often requires analyzing large volumes of drilling, Logging While Drilling (LWD) and Measurement While Drilling (MWD) data. In this paper, we develop a methodology that calculates the mechanical specific energy (MSE) using real-time drill string acceleration signals directly from its definition. High resolution vibration signals have been collected using a tri-axial accerlometer, which was an auxiliary tool included in acoustic borehole imager. This technique provides a cost-efficient solution for engineered completion design. Furthermore, we adopt deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with signal processing to build a data pipeline that effectively extracts patterns from dynamic acceleration signals for rock lateral MSE classification. First, we apply discrete wavelet transform and Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) for signal denoising and pattern recognition. Then we construct an image dataset using multi-scale image fusion at pixel level from 3 sensor channels, including axial, lateral acceleration spectrograms and zero-padded revolutions per minute (RPM). The resulted RGB image dataset includes 4,000 images of 5 MSE ranges with various rock strength conditions. Our results demonstrate that the proposed deep learning model can achieve more than 90% classification accuracy. The deep learning results, as a reference source, were applied in selected Marcellus Shale Energy and Environmental Lab (MSEEL) wells engineered completion located in the Marcellus shale gas site.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Integrative Modeling and Analysis of Fungal Central Carbon Metabolism

Over a thousand fungal genomes have been sequenced, yet manually curated genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) are available for only a limited number of species. Moreover, these models have often been developed independently, leading to inconsistencies in namespaces, compartment definitions, and pathway representations that hinder comparative analysis, the systematic reuse of prior curation efforts, and the integration of consolidated metabolic knowledge. Here, we present the Consolidated Fungal Core Metabolism Model (CFCMM), constructed by integrating thirteen published fungal models spanning Ascomycota, Mucoromycota, and both Crabtree-positive and Crabtree-negative yeasts. We harmonized metabolites and reactions into a non-redundant shared ModelSEED ontological space, standardized compartmentalization, and refined gene–protein–reaction (GPR) rules. Using pathway-level visualization and systematic gap detection, we further improved the integrated network through literature-guided curation to correct stoichiometry, stereospecificity, and pathway architecture. Orthologous protein family reconstruction and functional annotation workflows were used to validate and inform GPR associations, with particular emphasis on ambiguous enzyme superfamilies and membrane-associated components. Using the resulting CFCMM, we built high-quality central carbon core models for each fungus and performed flux balance analysis to quantify ATP-yield variation under aerobic and anaerobic conditions, explicitly evaluating scenarios driven by differences in electron transport chain (ETC) composition. Simulations reproduced the expected fermentative yield of approximately 2 mmol ATP per mmol glucose under anaerobic conditions and separated the thirteen fungi into two bioenergetic groups under aerobic respiration based on Complex I status, with predicted yields of approximately 30 versus 22 mmol ATP per mmol glucose. Forcing flux through the alternative oxidase bypass further reduced ATP yields to approximately 12 and 4 mmol ATP per mmol glucose in Complex I-containing and Complex I-lacking fungi, respectively. Collectively, this work provides a manually curated, ModelSEED-consistent, and extensible fungal core metabolic template, deployed in DOE KBase as a resource for automated reconstruction of central carbon core models from any sequenced fungal genome. In addition, the CFCMM provides modular components for developing GEMs with more accurate energy predictions and enables robust comparative analyses of fungal bioenergetics and core metabolic diversity

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

U.S. Offshore Pipeline and Reported Incident Datasets

The U.S. Offshore Pipeline and Reported Incident Datasets provide a compilation of data from a variety of credible resources, spatially-temporally integrated into multivariate resources. This spatial resource includes more than 80,000 points along existing and abandoned pipelines in the Gulf with matched incidents based on similar lease blocks and temporal timelines (e.g., the incident date occurs within reported pipeline lifespan), structural characteristics, geologic and seafloor data, and meteorological, oceanographic, and biochemical statistics spatially and temporally matched to each point. This is provided as both a feature class in a file geodatabase, as well as a CSV file for ease of use. The pipeline incidents table is a CSV file containing more than 900 reported incidents from 1986 to 2021, including incident date, area (Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease block and area code), reported causes, reported incident information, and results (i.e., cost, repairs, inspections), along with quantitative severity metrics. Field dictionaries are included for both the pipeline locations and incidents datasets, which detail field definitions. The pipeline locations field dictionary includes original resource reference information.

Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model↗

LandScan HD: a high-resolution gridded ambient population methodology for the world

Unwarned population distributions accounting for routine human activities are needed to address many global human security challenges, including disasters, conflict, and infrastructure demand. LandScan High Definition (LSHD) supports this need through gridded ambient population estimates that measure average human presence between daytime and nighttime at a high spatial resolution of 3 arcseconds (approximately 90 m). Although LSHD has traditionally been produced on a country-specific basis, advances in global foundational data and computational resources now enable scaling its methodology to the world. Combining aspects of top-down and bottom-up gridded population methods, LSHD allocates subnational population totals from authoritative statistics to built-up areas based on occupancy estimates for multiple facility types (e.g., residential, commercial) and then reaggregates these estimates to a global population grid. We scale this approach by organizing the LSHD data stack into a 1° resolution tileset of vector analytic features, enabling an efficient and repeatable workflow for all countries worldwide. Examining the Philippines as an output of the global LSHD baseline dataset, we contrast unwarned and residential (WorldPop) population distributions by (1) exploring a practical application of flood risk assessment and (2) evaluating their congruence with outcomes of collective human activities (subnational CO 2 emissions). Finally, we discuss plans to address current LSHD limitations through data/modeling and uncertainty quantification improvements and provide outlook for workflow automation and extending the model to social, demographic and economic population characteristics.

Building morphology↗

Overview of the X-33 Extended Flight Test Range

On July 1, 1996, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration signed a Cooperative Agreement No. NCC8-115 with Lockheed Martin Skunk Works to develop and flight test the X-33, a scaled version of a reusable launch vehicle. The development of an Extended Test Range, with range instrumentation providing continuous vehicle communications from Edwards Air Force Base Ca. to landing at Malmstrom Air Force Base Montana, was required to flight test the mach 15 vehicle over 950 nautical miles. The cooperative agreement approach makes Lockheed Martin Skunk Works responsible for the X-33 program. When additional Government help was required, Lockheed "subcontracted" to NASA Field Centers for certain work. It was through this mechanism that Dryden Flight Research Center became responsible for the Extended Test Range. The Extended Test Range Requirements come from two main sources: 1) Range Safety and 2) Lockheed Martin Skunk Works. The range safety requirements were the most challenging to define and meet. The X-33 represents a vehicle that launches like a rocket, reenters the atmosphere and lands autonomously like an aircraft. Historically, rockets have been launched over the oceans to allow failed rockets to be destroyed using explosive devices. Such approaches had to be reconsidered for the X-33 flying over land. Numerous range requirements come from Lockheed Martin Skunk Works for interface definitions with the vehicle communication subsystems and the primary ground operations center, defined the Operations Control Center. Another area of considerable interest was the reentry plasma shield that causes "blackout" of the radio frequency signals, such as the range safety commands. Significant work was spent to analyze and model the blackout problem using a cooperative team of experts from across the country. The paper describes the Extended Test Range a, an unique Government/industry team of personnel and range assets was established to resolve design issues and accomplish the X-33 requirements. The paper will also provide an overview of the technical approaches used to meet program requirements. The advances used to develop the extended test range will be discussed to show how other hypersonic and Access to Space programs can benefit from the development of the extended test range. Acknowledgment: The work described in this paper was NASA supported through cooperative agreement NCC8-115 with Lockheed Martin Skunk Works.

Mackall, D.↗

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix Orbit Determination Example

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. First, consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. Then it follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix of the estimate will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully include all of the errors in the state estimate. The empirical error covariance matrix is determined from a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm. It is a formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix obtained through use of the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than the usual total weighted residual form. Based on its formulation, this matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty and whether the source is anticipated or not. It is expected that the empirical error covariance matrix will give a better, statistical representation of the state error in poorly modeled systems or when sensor performance is suspect. In its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch estimation algorithms. In the current problem being studied a truth model making use of gravity with spherical, J2 and J4 terms plus a standard exponential type atmosphere with simple diurnal and random walk components is used. The ability of the empirical state error covariance matrix to account for errors is investigated under four scenarios during orbit estimation. These scenarios are: exact modeling under known measurement errors, exact modeling under corrupted measurement errors, inexact modeling under known measurement errors, and inexact modeling under corrupted measurement errors. For this problem a simple analog of a distributed space surveillance network is used. The sensors in this network make only range measurements and with simple normally distributed measurement errors. The sensors are assumed to have full horizon to horizon viewing at any azimuth. For definiteness, an orbit at the approximate altitude and inclination of the International Space Station is used for the study. The comparison analyses of the data involve only total vectors. No investigation of specific orbital elements is undertaken. The total vector analyses will look at the chisquare values of the error in the difference between the estimated state and the true modeled state using both the empirical and theoretical error covariance matrices for each of scenario.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗

Cell wall elasticity: I. A critique of the bulk elastic modulus approach and an analysis using polymer elastic principles

The traditional bulk elastic modulus approach to plant cell pressure-volume relations is inconsistent with its definition. The relationship between the bulk modulus and Young's modulus that forms the basis of their usual application to cell pressure-volume properties is demonstrated to be physically meaningless. The bulk modulus describes stress/strain relations of solid, homogeneous bodies undergoing small deformations, whereas the plant cell is best described as a thin-shelled, fluid-filled structure with a polymer base. Because cell walls possess a polymer structure, an alternative method of mechanical analysis is presented using polymer elasticity principles. This initial study presents the groundwork of polymer mechanics as would be applied to cell walls and discusses how the matrix and microfibrillar network induce nonlinear stress/strain relationships in the cell wall in response to turgor pressure. In subsequent studies, these concepts will be expanded to include anisotropic expansion as regulated by the microfibrillar network.

Plants/chemistry/cytology/ultrastructure↗

Spectral properties and enhanced superconductivity in renormalized Migdal-Eliashberg theory

Migdal-Eliashberg theory describes the properties of the normal and superconducting states of electron-phonon-mediated superconductors based on a perturbative treatment of the electron-phonon interactions. It is necessary to include both electron and phonon self-energies self-consistently in Migdal-Eliashberg theory in order to match numerically exact results from determinantal quantum Monte Carlo in the adiabatic limit. Here in this work we provide a method to obtain the real-axis solutions of the Migdal-Eliashberg equations with electron and phonon self-energies calculated self-consistently. Our method avoids the typical challenge of computing cumbersome singular integrals on the real axis and is numerically stable and exhibits fast convergence. Analyzing the resulting real-frequency spectra and self-energies of the two-dimensional Holstein model, we find that self-consistently including the lowest-order correction to the phonon self-energy significantly affects the solution of the Migdal-Eliashberg equations. The calculation captures the broadness of the spectral function, renormalization of the phonon dispersion, enhanced effective electron-phonon coupling strength, minimal increase in the electron effective mass, and the enhancement of superconductivity which manifests as a superconducting ground state despite strong competition with charge-density-wave order. We discuss surprising differences in two common definitions of the electron-phonon coupling strength derived from the electron mass and the density of states, quantities which are accessible through experiments such as angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy and electron tunneling. An approximate upper bound on 2Δ/T c for conventional superconductors mediated by retarded electron-phonon interactions is proposed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A First Look at the Upcoming SISO Space Reference FOM

Spaceflight is difficult, dangerous and expensive; human spaceflight even more so. In order to mitigate some of the danger and expense, professionals in the space domain have relied, and continue to rely, on computer simulation. Simulation is used at every level including concept, design, analysis, construction, testing, training and ultimately flight. As space systems have grown more complex, new simulation technologies have been developed, adopted and applied. Distributed simulation is one those technologies. Distributed simulation provides a base technology for segmenting these complex space systems into smaller, and usually simpler, component systems or subsystems. This segmentation also supports the separation of responsibilities between participating organizations. This segmentation is particularly useful for complex space systems like the International Space Station (ISS), which is composed of many elements from many nations along with visiting vehicles from many nations. This is likely to be the case for future human space exploration activities. Over the years, a number of distributed simulations have been built within the space domain. While many use the High Level Architecture (HLA) to provide the infrastructure for interoperability, HLA without a Federation Object Model (FOM) is insufficient by itself to insure interoperability. As a result, the Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization (SISO) is developing a Space Reference FOM. The Space Reference FOM Product Development Group is composed of members from several countries. They contribute experiences from projects within NASA, ESA and other organizations and represent government, academia and industry. The initial version of the Space Reference FOM is focusing on time and space and will provide the following: (i) a flexible positioning system using reference frames for arbitrary bodies in space, (ii) a naming conventions for well-known reference frames, (iii) definitions of common time scales, (iv) federation agreements for common types of time management with focus on time stepped simulation, and (v) support for physical entities, such as space vehicles and astronauts. The Space Reference FOM is expected to make collaboration politically, contractually and technically easier. It is also expected to make collaboration easier to manage and extend.

Mueller, Bjorn↗

Preliminary Medical Risk Estimates and Clinical Capability Needs for Artemis IV

BACKGROUND Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in- mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT v1.0 improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. METHODOLOGY: This abstract will present IMPACT estimates of medical system risk and clinical capability needs for the Artemis IV mission. Artemis IV is currently scheduled for 2026 and will visit the Gateway space station in lunar orbit prior to the second lunar landing of the Artemis program. The baseline Artemis IV mission that was modeled was 28 days in duration with phases including Orion outbound, 4 days on the Gateway space station in lunar orbit, 2 crew on the surface of the Moon for approximately one week, an additional 5 days on Gateway, and then return to Earth. This baseline was compared to two alternative 34-day design reference missions (DRMs) that shifted the lunar sortie earlier or later in the mission profile. Assumptions included 2 female and 2 male crew and a notional medical system mass of 25 kg. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), consideration of medical evacuation (known as return to definitive care – RTDC), and an estimate of crew time lost due to medical conditions (Task Time Lost – TTL). The presentation will also describe the medical conditions that are the greatest drivers of risk as well as the clinical capabilities and resources that have the largest effect on risk. RESULTS: All three DRMs had very low probability of LOCL from medical conditions, primarily due to short duration. RTDC was also similar across the DRMs. In contrast, TTL was higher in the early lunar sortie DRM due to earlier occurrence of EVA-related medical conditions. Taken as a whole, there was no clinically significant difference in medical risk across the three missions. Results for clinical capabilities and an example medical equipment list will be discussed but were similar across DRMs.

D Hilmers↗

Preliminary Medical Risk Estimates and Clinical Capability Needs for Late Artemis Missions

BACKGROUND Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in- mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT v1.0 improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. METHODOLOGY: This abstract will present IMPACT estimates of medical system risk and clinical capability needs for the Artemis IV mission. Artemis IV is currently scheduled for 2026 and will visit the Gateway space station in lunar orbit prior to the second lunar landing of the Artemis program. The baseline Artemis IV mission that was modeled was 28 days in duration with phases including Orion outbound, 4 days on the Gateway space station in lunar orbit, 2 crew on the surface of the Moon for approximately one week, an additional 5 days on Gateway, and then return to Earth. This baseline was compared to two alternative 34-day design reference missions (DRMs) that shifted the lunar sortie earlier or later in the mission profile. Assumptions included 2 female and 2 male crew and a notional medical system mass of 25 kg. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), consideration of medical evacuation (known as return to definitive care – RTDC), and an estimate of crew time lost due to medical conditions (Task Time Lost – TTL). The presentation will also describe the medical conditions that are the greatest drivers of risk as well as the clinical capabilities and resources that have the largest effect on risk. RESULTS: All three DRMs had very low probability of LOCL from medical conditions, primarily due to short duration. RTDC was also similar across the DRMs. In contrast, TTL was higher in the early lunar sortie DRM due to earlier occurrence of EVA-related medical conditions. Taken as a whole, there was no clinically significant difference in medical risk across the three missions. Results for clinical capabilities and an example medical equipment list will be discussed but were similar across DRMs.

D. Hilmers↗

Compactly‐Supported Nonstationary Kernels for Computing Exact Gaussian Processes on Big Data

The Gaussian process (GP) is a widely used method for analyzing large-scale data sets, including spatio-temporal measurements of nonlinear processes that are now commonplace in the environmental sciences. Traditional implementations of GPs involve stationary kernels (also termed covariance functions) that limit their flexibility, and exact methods for inference that prevent application to data sets with more than about 10,000 points. Modern approaches to address stationarity assumptions generally fail to accommodate large data sets, while all attempts to address scalability focus on approximating the Gaussian likelihood, which can involve subjectivity and lead to inaccuracies. In this work, we explicitly derive an alternative kernel that can discover and encode both sparsity and nonstationarity. We embed the kernel within a fully Bayesian GP model and leverage high-performance computing resources to enable the analysis of massive data sets. We demonstrate the favorable performance of our novel kernel relative to existing exact and approximate GP methods across a variety of synthetic data examples. Furthermore, we conduct space–time prediction based on more than 1 million measurements of daily maximum temperature and verify that our results outperform state-of-the-art methods in the Earth sciences. More broadly, having access to exact GPs that use ultra-scalable, sparsity-discovering, nonstationary kernels allows GP methods to truly compete with a wide variety of machine learning methods.

Gaussian processes↗

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Threat Assessment: Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle

This report provides results of a Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) risk assessment of the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle (MSR EEV). The assessment was performed using standard risk assessment methodology illustrated in Figure 1-1. Central to the process is the Bumper risk assessment code (Figure 1-2), which calculates the critical penetration risk based on geometry, shielding configurations and flight parameters. The assessment process begins by building a finite element model (FEM) of the spacecraft, which defines the size and shape of the spacecraft as well as the locations of the various shielding configurations. This model is built using the NX I-deas software package from Siemens PLM Software. The FEM is constructed using triangular and quadrilateral elements that define the outer shell of the spacecraft. Bumper-II uses the model file to determine the geometry of the spacecraft for the analysis. The next step of the process is to identify the ballistic limit characteristics for the various shield types. These ballistic limits define the critical size particle that will penetrate a shield at a given impact angle and impact velocity. When the finite element model is built, each individual element is assigned a property identifier (PID) to act as an index for its shielding properties. Using the ballistic limit equations (BLEs) built into the Bumper-II code, the shield characteristics are defined for each and every PID in the model. The final stage of the analysis is to determine the probability of no penetration (PNP) on the spacecraft. This is done using the micrometeoroid and orbital debris environment definitions that are built into the Bumper-II code. These engineering models take into account orbit inclination, altitude, attitude and analysis date in order to predict an impacting particle flux on the spacecraft. Using the geometry and shielding characteristics previously defined for the spacecraft and combining that information with the environment model calculations, the Bumper-II code calculates a probability of no penetration for the spacecraft.

Christiansen, Eric L.↗

Discrete Event Simulation-Based Timeline Validation Using R2U2

The Gateway Vehicle Systems Manager (VSM), the top-level software control system in a distributed, hierarchical Autonomous System Management Architecture is, like most modern spacecraft software control systems, heavily data-driven. For example, schedules (timelines) will be developed on the ground and, due to the high degree of autonomy, contain complex procedures involving conditional branching, variable timing, and resource contention resolution. In order to verify that an uploaded timeline will function correctly, it is necessary to explore the feasible set of possible executions. While it is possible to test a timeline using a mission simulation, the complexity of the system and duration of a timeline limits the number of trials and therefore the test coverage. To address this problem, the VSM team is using a discrete event system model that can rapidly generate from a timeline sets of event sequences using Monte Carlo techniques. To achieve rapid and trustworthy checking of the event sequences, we use an offline version of the runtime model checking tool R2U2. This presentation describes the approach the VSM team is using to implement the discrete event simulation and evaluate event sequences using R2U2. The presentation will discuss: 1. Description of the timelines by VSM in the context of VSM operations 2. Expansion of a timeline into a sequence of atomic events 3. Adjustment, in the Monte Carlo environment, of an event sequence to account for uncertainty, external events, and failures 4. Definition of R2U2 input and mission-time linear temporal logic files 5. Generation and use of R2U2 verdict sequences 6. Lessons learned and future work

Verification↗

Main and Satellite Features in the Ni 2p XPS of NiO

The origin and assignment of the complex main and satellite XPS features of the cations in ionic compounds has been the subject of extensive theoretical studies using different methods. There is agreement that within a molecular orbital model one needs to take into account different types of configurations. Specifically, those where a core electron is removed but no other configuration changes are made and those where in addition to ionization there are also shake or charge transfer changes to the ionic configuration. However, there are strong disagreements about the assignment of XPS features to these configurations. The present work is directed toward resolving the origin of main and satellite features for the Ni 2p XPS of NiO based on ab initio molecular orbital wavefunctions for a cluster model of NiO. A major problem in earlier ab initio XPS studies of ionic compounds has been the use of a common set of orbitals that was not able to properly describe all the ionic configurations that contribute to the full XPS spectra. This is resolved in the present work by using orbitals that are optimized for averages of the occupations of the different configurations that contribute to the XPS. The approach of using State Averaged orbitals is validated through comparisons between different averages and through use of higher order excitations in the wavefunctions for the ionic states. It represents a major extension of our earlier work on the main and satellite features of the Fe 2p XPS of Fe 2 O 3 and proves the reliability and the generality of the assignments of the character and origin of the different features of the XPS obtained with orbitals optimized for State Averages. These molecular orbital methods permit the characterization of the ionic states in terms of the importance of shake excitations and of the coupling of ionization of 2p 1/2 and 2p 3/2 spin-orbit split sub shells. Further, the work lays the foundation for definitive assignments of the character of main and satellite XPS features and points to their origin in the electronic structure of the material.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗