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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Development of building energy asset rating using stock modelling in the USA

The US Building Energy Asset Score helps building stakeholders quickly gain insight into the efficiency of building systems (envelope, electrical and mechanical systems). A robust, easy-to-understand 10-point scoring system was developed to facilitate an unbiased comparison of similar building types across the country. The Asset Score does not rely on a database or specific building baselines to establish a rating. Rather, distributions of energy use intensity (EUI) for various building use types were constructed using Latin hypercube sampling and converted to a series of stepped linear scales to score buildings. A score is calculated based on the modelled source EUI after adjusting for climate. A web-based scoring tool, which incorporates an analytical engine and a simulation engine, was developed to standardize energy modelling and reduce implementation cost. This paper discusses the methodology used to perform several hundred thousand building simulation runs and develop the scoring scales.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Robust Machine Learning Schema for Developing, Maintaining, and Disseminating Machine Learning Models

Recent advances in the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have enabled the creation of predictive models that can improve decision making, decrease computational cost, and improve efficiency in a variety of fields. As an organization begins to develop and implement such models, the data used in the training, validation, and testing of ML models, the model parameters, and the use cases or limitations of the models must be properly stored to ensure models are both fully traceable and used correctly. In the context of predicting material behavior, advances in computationally intense, physics-based modeling of material behavior at various length scales and the emergence of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have driven the need for developing data-driven surrogate models of the physics-based simulation tools using ML techniques. Surrogate model development allows for accurate material behavior prediction at a fraction of the cost of its physics-based counterpart, allowing for multiscale simulations of real-world applications, further enabling the ability to design fit-for-purpose materials for a reasonable computational investment. However, training such models requires extensive data, and thus, effective data management is necessary to reach the full potential that ML can offer to material design and ICME. This paper proposes a generalized, robust schema that allows organizations to store both real (experimental) and virtual (simulation) data used to train ML models and the defining model parameters and architectures within the Granta MI Platform. The developed schema allows for various types of data inputs and outputs, including single point values, time-series data, and images that can be used in the prediction of material behavior, while following outlined best practices for effective data management. An effective schema for ML data and models can help prevent the recreation of virtual/real training data and surrogate models, help reduce the time to create new models similar to existing ones by offering a starting point in the hyperparameter determination stages, minimize resources devoted to verification and validation (V&V) and certification of models, and ensure that data and surrogate models are not misused due to full traceability of both the data and ML model. It also allows organizations access to models that have already been developed, such that they can be used in the design of new materials, enabling the overall goals of ICME.

Brandon L. Hearley↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Fiber Failure of Plain Weave Fabric with Recursive Multiscale Micromechanics

Recent advances in the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have enabled the creation of predictive models that can improve decision making, decrease computational cost, and improve efficiency in a variety of fields. As an organization begins to develop and implement such models, the data used in the training, validation, and testing of machine learning models, the model parameters, and the use cases or limitations of the models must be properly stored to ensure models are both fully traceable and used correctly. In the context of predicting material behavior, advances in computationally intense, physics-based, modeling of material behavior at various length scales, and the emergence of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have driven the need for developing data-driven surrogate models of the physics-based simulation tools using machine learning (ML) techniques. Surrogate model development allows for accurate material behavior prediction at a fraction of the cost of its physics-based counterpart, allowing for multiscale simulations of real-world applications, further enabling the ability to design fit-for-purpose materials for a reasonable computational investment. However, training such models requires extensive data, and thus effective data management is necessary to reach the full potential that ML can offer to material design and ICME. This paper proposes a generalized, robust schema that allows organizations to store both real (experimental) and virtual (simulation) data used to train machine learning models and the defining model parameters and architectures. The developed schema allows for various types of data inputs and outputs, including single point values, time-series data, and images that can be used in for various types of machine learning models while following outlined best practices for effective data management. An effective schema for machine learning data and models can help prevent the recreation of virtual/real training data and surrogate models, can help reduce the time to create new models similar to existing ones by offering a starting point in the hyperparameter determination stages, minimize resources devoted to verification and validation (V&V) and certification of models, and ensure that data and surrogate models are not misused due to full traceability of both the data and ML model. It also allows organizations access to models that have already been developed, such that they can be used in the design of new materials, enabling the overall goals of ICME.

Failure↗
NASA NTRS2019

Heat Analysis Manager (HAM), a Thermal Desktop API Based Heat Map Generation Software

Thermal engineers often create custom heat maps to analyze their thermal model. However, generating a heat map is difficult because thermal simulation only readily provide attributes of simulated nodes such as temperature, capacitance, heat generation, and a network of conductances. Heat flow values are a derived quantity from the nodal attributes, and the data processing and management of heat flow between nodes quickly become difficult for large models. Deriving a network of heat flow values requires vast amount of calculations and data handling, heat map generation process generally suffers from processing speed, loss of accuracy, and/or presentation of data in a useful format. Heat Analysis Manager (HAM) is a Thermal Desktop (TD) based free multi-purpose tool developed to aid thermal engineers in analyzing their thermal model, including a heat map generation functionality. HAM’s heat map generator retains accuracy and fast processing speed by utilizing TD’s application programming interface (API) and built-in TD’s “Qflow from Results.” Furthermore, HAM’s heat map output is presented in an easily customizable format in Excel, allowing users to create various custom visual heat maps. A full description of how HAM utilizes TD’s API to create a customizable heat map is provided. A simple model demonstration is included along with step-by-step procedures on creating custom heat maps. HAM’s heat map result has been verified against TD’s and other heat map generation software, and verification methods are also included.

Thermal desktop↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Safety, Reliability, and Mission Assurance Digital Future

The evolution from “document-centric” to “data-centric” and “model-centric” information leveraging structured data and model-based approaches is at the heart of digital engineering transformational efforts underway across industry and government. It is these approaches that pave the way for data lakes, Authoritative Sources of Truth (ASOTs), and systems- of-systems interoperability and the corresponding transformational benefits thereof. Such benefits include increased data availability, data access equity, data traceability, real-time analytics, batch analytics, and (most importantly) acceleration of the time-to-value and time-to-insights associated with engineering products and analyses. The longer-term benefits of reusability, customization and traceability are even more promising. For Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA), and Mission Success (SMS) activities; realization of such benefits is essential to provide engineers and analysts alike vital information when needed to support critical decision making throughout the entire life cycle. The SMA community often operate in parallel with engineering activities, for which information exchange with relevant context is paramount. Far too often, such information lags key decision points and/or is absent of the robust, integrated, knowledge needed, given inherent barriers associated with traditional document-centric means to data sharing, analysis, and reporting. This paper provides an overview of how NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) is evolving its policies, standards, guidance, and training to transform to eliminate such barriers, thus realizing the benefits emerging in this new digital era. A roadmap for achieving this digital future is presented along with key building blocks involving use and implementation of concepts such as: Objectives-Hierarchies, Objective-Driven Requirements, Accepted Standards, Safety and Assurance Cases, data digitization (i.e., ontologies, structured data, and model-centric data), FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, & Reusable) and/or FAIRUST (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable, Understandable, Secure, and Trusted) principles [1]. This paper also describes how OSMA, leveraging the Agency’s overall commitment to Digital Transformation (DT), is using the power of Policy, “Digital” Domain representation, Product Evolution, and Community Outreach and Engagement as part of a strategic vision and roadmap to evolve and transform its SMA organizations to become better able to serve its stakeholders and customers. Future publications will elaborate on these building blocks and deeper concepts.

Authoritative Source of Truth (ASOT),↗
NASA NTRS1982

Computing the Power-Density Spectrum for an Engineering Model

Computer program for calculating of power-density spectrum (PDS) from data base generated by Advanced Continuous Simulation Language (ACSL) uses algorithm that employs fast Fourier transform (FFT) to calculate PDS of variable. Accomplished by first estimating autocovariance function of variable and then taking FFT of smoothed autocovariance function to obtain PDS. Fast-Fourier-transform technique conserves computer resources.

Dunn, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Improved Cell Culture Method for Growing Contracting Skeletal Muscle Models

An improved method for culturing immature muscle cells (myoblasts) into a mature skeletal muscle overcomes some of the notable limitations of prior culture methods. The development of the method is a major advance in tissue engineering in that, for the first time, a cell-based model spontaneously fuses and differentiates into masses of highly aligned, contracting myotubes. This method enables (1) the construction of improved two-dimensional (monolayer) skeletal muscle test beds; (2) development of contracting three-dimensional tissue models; and (3) improved transplantable tissues for biomedical and regenerative medicine applications. With adaptation, this method also offers potential application for production of other tissue types (i.e., bone and cardiac) from corresponding precursor cells.

Marquette, Michele L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Research Study: Space Shuttle Main Engine Plume Flowfield Model

The initial research effort was an in-depth analysis of the shuttle main engine plumes in an effort to improve the flowfield model and to enhance shuttle base heating equipment predictions during ascent. A prediction methodology code was developed incorporating the improved plume model into a predictive tool which could consider different trajectoreis and engine perfromance variables. Various plume flow model improvement studies were ongoing at the time of the 51-L accident. Since that time, base heating and plume methodology improvements have continued as part of the overall emphasis on Shuttle design assurance before resuming flight schedule.

Bender, Robert L.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Model-Based Characterization of Elevated Temperature and High Pressure Oxy-Coal Combustion Systems

Reaction Engineering International is leading a DOE-funded program focused on characterization of the impacts of high temperatures and pressures in oxy-coal combustion systems. A primary objective is to evaluate flame behavior, heat transfer, and ash chemistry at high pressure to facilitate the application of pressurized oxy-coal in full-scale systems. The University of Utah’s 300 kW pressurized entrained flow gasifier has been successfully modified and operated as a high pressure, slurry-fed, oxy-coal combustor at firing rates ranging from nearly 100 kW to over 180 kW with reactor pressures as high as 200 psi. This presentation will describe the modifications to the gasifier to allow it to operate as a high pressure, oxy-coal combustor; detail experimental data including measurements of radiant flux, wall surface temperatures, and ash aerosol characterization; and CFD modeling of the experimental conditions. In addition, an update will be provided for accomplishments achieved to date for the component of the program focused on modeling of high temperature oxy-coal combustion using undiluted directed oxygen with minimal flue gas recirculation at atmospheric pressure.

CFD modeling↗
DOE OSTI2019

Process Modeling of U-10wt% Mo Alloys Using Integrated Computational Materials Engineering

Low-enriched uranium alloyed with 10 wt% molybdenum (U-10Mo) has been identified as a promising alternative to highly enriched uranium as fuel for the nation’s high-performance research reactors. Manufacturing the U-10Mo alloy consists of multiple complex thermomechanical processes, which is highly challenging for computational modeling. The integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) concept supports building a microstructure-based framework to investigate the effect of manufacturing processes on the material microstructure. In this report, an ICME model that combines homogenization, hot rolling, annealing, and cold rolling is presented as an example of implementing the ICME concept for modeling the manufacturing processes of the U-10Mo alloy. The integrated model enables information to be passed between the different model components, leading to an improved prediction and a better understanding of microstructure across multiple processes. The integrated model was also implemented to investigate the variation of chemical composition, thickness of the zirconium interlayer, grain growth, and carbide redistribution and fracture of U-10Mo during the thermomechanical processes. With the homogenization model, a molybdenum concentration map can be reconstructed from any given microstructure, and the homogenization time needed to reach a desired homogenization level can also be approximated. The microstructure-based finite-element rolling model, shows that the homogenization process reduces the nonuniformity in the thickness of the zirconium interlayers on the U-10Mo. With the output from the rolling model, a statistical analysis of second-phase hard particles was conducted to quantify the particle redistribution and interparticle spacing between carbides during the deformation. Also, new stringer identification criteria were proposed to predict the correlation between stringer volume fractions and hot-rolling reduction. A macro-finite-element method hot-rolling model showed that higher reduction passes can be achieved within the mill separation force range, and a new “aggressive” rolling schedule was proposed. The model also showed the importance of can material on the quality of rolled foils, with stronger can materials resulting in hot-rolled U-10Mo free of defects (waviness, dog-boning). The deformation-induced recrystallization model demonstrated capability to use inputs from deformation simulations of strain accumulation in U-10Mo samples to predict grain growth behavior of the fuel during thermal treatment stages. Finally, a plane-strain compression mode simulated particle fracture and calculates the void volume fraction generated during cold rolling. The macro-finite-element method cold-rolling model showed that smaller diameter rolls are necessary to achieve the desired foil thickness.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Analysis of Experimental Ice Accretion Data and Assessment of a Thermodynamic Model During Ice Crystal Icing

This paper evaluates a thermodynamic ice crystal icing model that has been previously presented to describe the possible mechanisms of icing within the core of a turbofan jet engine. The model functions between two distinct ice accretions based on a surface energy balance: freeze-dominated icing and melt-dominated icing. Freeze-dominated icing occurs when liquid water (from melted ice crystals) freezes and accretes on a surface along with the existing ice of the impinging water and ice mass. This freeze-dominated icing is characterized as having strong adhesion to the surface. The amount of ice accretion is partially dictated by a freeze fraction, which is the fraction of impinging liquid water that freezes. Melt-dominated icing occurs as unmelted ice on a surface accumulates. This melt-dominated icing is characterized by weakly bonded surface adhesion. The amount of ice accumulation is partially dictated by a melt fraction, which is the fraction of impinging ice crystals that melts. Experimentally observed ice growth rates suggest that only a small fraction of the impinging ice remains on the surface, implying a mass loss mechanism such as splash, runback, bounce, or erosion. The fraction of mass loss must be determined in conjunction with the fraction of freezing liquid water or fraction of melting ice on an icing surface for a given ice growth rate. This mass loss parameter, however, along with the freeze fraction and melt fraction, are the only experimental parameters that are currently not measured directly. Using icing growth rates from ice crystal icing experiments, a methodology that has been previously proposed is used to determine these unknown parameters. This work takes ice accretion data from tests conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) at the Glenn Research Center in 2018 that examined the fundamental physics of ice crystal icing. This paper continues evaluation of the thermodynamic model from a previous effort, with additions to the model that account for sub-freezing temperatures that have been observed at the leading edge of the airfoil during icing. The predicted temperatures were generally in good agreement with measured temperatures. Other key findings include the total wet-bulb temperature being a good first order indicator of whether icing is freeze-dominated (sub-freezing values) or melt-dominated (above freezing). Maximum sticking efficiency values, the fraction of impinging mass that adheres to a surface, was calculated to be about 0.2, and retained this maximum value for a range of melt ratios (0.3 to 0.65 and possibly higher), which is defined as the ratio of liquid water content to total water content. Higher air velocities reduced the maximum sticking efficiency and shifted the icing regime to higher melt ratio values. Finally, the leading edge ice accretion angle was found to be related to ice growth (lower growth rates for smaller angles) and melt ratio (smaller melt ratios resulted in smaller angles, likely due to erosion effects).

Ice-Crystal Icing↗
NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Residual Strength Model Developed for Life Prediction of Ceramic Matrix Composites

For the next generation of reusable launch vehicles, NASA is investigating introducing ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in place of current superalloys for structural propulsion applications (e.g., nozzles, vanes, combustors, and heat exchangers). The higher use temperatures of CMCs will reduce vehicle weight by eliminating and/or reducing cooling system requirements. The increased strength-to-weight ratio of CMCs relative to superalloys further enhances their weight savings potential. However, in order to provide safe designs for components made of these new materials, a comprehensive life prediction methodology for CMC structures needs to be developed. A robust methodology for lifing composite structures has yet to be adopted by the engineering community. Current industry design practice continues to utilize deterministic empirically based models borrowed from metals design for predicting material life capabilities. The deterministic nature of these models inadequately addresses the stochastic character of brittle composites, and their empirical reliance makes predictions beyond the experimental test conditions a risky extrapolation. A team of engineers at the NASA Glenn Research Center has been developing a new life prediction engineering model. The Probabilistic Residual Strength (PRS) model uses the residual strength of the composite as its damage metric. Expected life and material strength are both considered probabilistically to account for the observed stochastic material response. Extensive experimental testing has been carried out on C/SiC (a candidate aerospace CMC material system) in a controlled 1000 ppm O2/argon environment at elevated temperatures of 800 and 1200 C. The test matrix was established to allow observation of the material behavior, characterization of the model, and validation of the model's predictive capabilities. Sample results of the validation study are illustrated in the graphs.

Thomas, David J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Two-dimensional model of a Space Station Freedom thermal energy storage canister

The Solar Dynamic Power Module being developed for Space Station Freedom uses a eutectic mixture of LiF-CaF2 phase change salt contained in toroidal canisters for thermal energy storage. Results are presented from heat transfer analyses of the phase-change salt containment canister. A 2-D, axisymmetric finite-difference computer program which models the canister walls, salt, void, and heat engine working fluid coolant was developed. Analyses included effects of conduction in canister walls and solid salt, conduction and free convection in liquid salt, conduction and radiation across salt vapor filled void regions, and forced convection in the heat engine working fluid. Void shape, location, and growth or shrinkage (due to density difference between the solid and liquid salt phases) were prescribed based on engineering judgement. The salt phase change process was modeled using the enthalpy method. Discussion of results focuses on the role of free-convection in the liquid salt on canister heat transfer performance. This role is shown to be important for interpreting the relationship between groundbased canister performance (in 1-g) and expected on-orbit performance (in micro-g). Attention is also focused on the influence of void heat transfer on canister wall temperature distributions. The large thermal resistance of void regions is shown to accentuate canister hot spots and temperature gradients.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Application of High Performance Computing for Studying Cyclic Variability in Dilute Internal Combustion Engines

Combustion instabilities in dilute internal combustion engines are manifest in cyclic variability (CV) in engine performance measures such as integrated heat release or shaft work. Understanding the factors leading to CV is important in model-based control, especially with high dilution where experimental studies have demonstrated that deterministic effects can become more prominent. Observation of enough consecutive engine cycles for significant statistical analysis is standard in experimental studies but is largely wanting in numerical simulations because of the computational time required to compute hundreds or thousands of consecutive cycles. We have proposed and begun implementation of an alternative approach to allow rapid simulation of long series of engine dynamics based on a low-dimensional mapping of ensembles of single-cycle simulations which map input parameters to output engine performance. This paper details the use Titan at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility to investigate CV in a gasoline direct-injected spark-ignited engine with a moderately high rate of dilution achieved through external exhaust gas recirculation. The CONVERGE™ CFD software was used to perform single-cycle simulations with imposed variations of operating parameters and boundary conditions selected according to a sparse grid sampling of the parameter space. Using an uncertainty quantification technique, the sampling scheme is chosen similar to a design of experiments grid but uses algorithms designed to minimize the number of samples required to achieve a desired degree of accuracy. The simulations map input parameters to output metrics of engine performance for a single cycle, and by mapping over a large parameter space, results can be interpolated from within that space. This interpolation scheme forms the basis for a low-dimensional ‘metamodel’ (or model of a model) which can be used to mimic the dynamical behavior of corresponding high-dimensional simulations. Simulations of high-EGR spark-ignition combustion cycles within a parametric sampling grid were performed and analyzed statistically, and sensitivities of the physical factors leading to high CV are presented. With these results, the prospect of producing low-dimensional metamodels to describe engine dynamics at any point in the parameter space will be discussed. Additionally, modifications to the methodology to account for nondeterministic effects in the numerical solution environment are proposed.

Finney, Charles E. A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Using Dynamic Interface Modeling and Simulation to Develop a Launch and Recovery Flight Simulation for a UH-60A Blackhawk

Joint Shipboard Helicopter Integration Process (JSHIP) is a Joint Test and Evaluation (JT&E) program sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). Under the JSHDP program is a simulation effort referred to as the Dynamic Interface Modeling and Simulation System (DIMSS). The purpose of DIMSS is to develop and test the processes and mechanisms that facilitate ship-helicopter interface testing via man-in-the-loop ground-based flight simulators. Specifically, the DIMSS charter is to develop an accredited process for using a flight simulator to determine the wind-over-the-deck (WOD) launch and recovery flight envelope for the UH-60A ship/helicopter combination. DIMSS is a collaborative effort between the NASA Ames Research Center and OSD. OSD determines the T&E and warfighter training requirements, provides the programmatics and dynamic interface T&E experience, and conducts ship/aircraft interface tests for validating the simulation. NASA provides the research and development element, simulation facility, and simulation technical experience. This paper will highlight the benefits of the NASA/JSHIP collaboration and detail achievements of the project in terms of modeling and simulation. The Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS) at NASA Ames Research Center offers the capability to simulate a wide range of simulation cueing configurations, which include visual, aural, and body-force cueing devices. The system flexibility enables switching configurations io allow back-to-back evaluation and comparison of different levels of cueing fidelity in determining minimum training requirements. The investigation required development and integration of several major simulation system at the VMS. A new UH-60A BlackHawk interchangeable cab that provides an out-the-window (OTW) field-of-view (FOV) of 220 degrees in azimuth and 70 degrees in elevation was built. Modeling efforts involved integrating Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) generated data of an LHA ship airwake and integrating a real-time ship motion model developed based on a batch model from Naval Surface Warfare Center. Engineering development and integration of a three degrees-of-freedom (DOF) dynamic seat to simulate high frequency rotor-dynamics dependent motion cues for use in conjunction with the large motion system was accomplished. The development of an LHA visual model in several different levels of resolution and an aural cueing system in which three separate fidelity levels could be selected were developed. VMS also integrated a PC-based E&S simFUSION system to investigate cost effective IG alternatives. The DIMSS project consists of three phases that follow an approved Validation, Verification and accreditation (VV&A) process. The first phase will support the accreditation of the individual subsystems and models. The second will follow the verification and validation of the integrated subsystems and models, and will address fidelity requirements of the integrated models and subsystems. The third and final phase will allow the verification and validation of the full system integration. This VV&A process will address the utility of the simulated WOD launch and recovery envelope. Simulations supporting the first two stages have been completed and the data is currently being reviewed and analyzed.

Sweeney, Christopher↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Constitutive Model for the Inelastic Response of Metals: Application to 316H Steel

Here, predictions of the mechanical response of structural elements are conditioned by the accuracy of constitutive models used at the engineering length-scale. In this regard, a prospect of mechanistic crystal-plasticity-based constitutive models is that they could be used for extrapolation beyond regimes in which they are calibrated. However, their use for assessing the performance of a component is computationally onerous. To address this limitation, a new approach is proposed whereby a surrogate constitutive model (SM) of the inelastic response of 316H steel is derived from a mechanistic crystal plasticity-based polycrystal model tracking the evolution of dislocation densities on all slip systems. The latter is used to generate a database of the expected plastic response and dislocation content evolution associated with several instances of creep loading. From the database, a SM is developed. It relies on the use of orthogonal polynomial regression to describe the evolution of the dislocation content. The SM is then validated against predictions of the dead load creep response given by the polycrystal model across a range of temperatures and stresses. When the SM is used to predict the response of 316H during complex non monotonic loading, extrapolating to new loading conditions, it is found that predictions compare particularly well against those from the physics-based polycrystal model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment

Multivariate Bayesian analysis can bring significant benefits to seismic hazard analysis: Its multivariate feature enables computing scalar and vector hazard without making any approximations; Correlations between intensity measures are implicitly modeled, permitting direct simulation of ground motion selection tools such as the conditional mean spectrum and the generalized conditioning intensity measure; and Its updating feature enables a seamless integration of new ground motion data into the hazard results. Here, we first develop a multivariate Bayesian ground motion model through the NGA-West2 database. The model functional form considers fault-type, magnitude, and distance dependencies, and also the linear and the rock intensity dependent site response. We use a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform Bayesian inference consisting of Gibbs step and a multilevel Metropolis-Hastings step. We then perform several checks on the model and note that its performance is satisfactory. Finally, we illustrate the merits of this multivariate Bayesian analysis, which include: ground motion model updating with ground motion data recorded in the last four years not part of the NGA-West2 database; computation of scalar and vector seismic hazard using the un-updated and updated ground motion models for Los Angeles, CA; and simulation of the conditional mean spectrum under scalar and vector IM conditioning while accounting for different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty quantification of microstructural properties due to variability in measured pole figures

Experimental pole figures are an important input for microstructure homogenization models. In this paper, we derive an exact analytical formulation to quantify the uncertainties in homogenized properties due to uncertainty in the experimentally measured pole figures. The pole figures are acquired from a set of Ti-7Al alloy samples. These samples were obtained from the same process: by compressing a beta forged ingot at room temperature followed by annealing. The samples were taken from different regions of the original ingot, and this created variability in the resulting pole figures. The joint multivariate probability distributions of the computed orientation distribution function (ODF) is then found using the method of characteristic functions based on a Gaussian model of the pole figures. Engineering properties such as elastic modulus can be obtained by volume averaging over the ODF. We also show that uncertainty in elastic properties can be analytically obtained using direct transformation of random variables in the homogenization approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗