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The promise of remote sensing in the atmospheric sciences

The applications and advances in remote sensing technology for weather prediction, mesoscale meteorology, severe storms, and climate studies are discussed. Doppler radar permits tracking of the three-dimensional field of motion within storms, thereby increasing the accuracy of convective storm modeling. Single Doppler units are also employed for detecting mesoscale storm vortices and tornado vortex signatures with lead times of 30 min. Clear air radar in pulsed and high resolution FM-CW forms reveals boundary layer convection, Kelvin-Helmoltz waves, shear layer turbulence, and wave motions. Lidar is successfully employed for stratospheric aerosol measurements, while Doppler lidar provides data on winds from the ground and can be based in space. Sodar is useful for determining the structure of the PBL. Details and techniques of satellite-based remote sensing are presented, and results from the GWE and FGGE experiments are discussed.

Atlas, D.↗

Cooperative VAS program with NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

The importance of mesoscale moisture information in the forecasting of weather events is discussed. A test is being prepared with the March 6, 1982 Vertical Atmospheric Sounder/Atmospheric Variability Experiment (VAS/AVE) case study to be run on the sub-synoptic scale model (SSM). Model intracomparison of three carefully designed simulations should isolate the role of mesoscale information in the initial conditions for both mositure and vertical motion. Three simulations will be made for the period 1200Z 6 March to 0000Z 7 March starting with the regular synoptic time data of 1200Z. The distinction between the three cases arises from data manipulation at 1800Z midway through the forecast period: (1) Control Case: no alterations at 1800Z. (2) Moisture Information Suppression: at 1800Z the model simulation field for water vapor, which by this time contains considerable mesoscale structure, is replaced by a smoothed version from which the mesoscale structure has been eliminated. No other variables are structure altered. (3) Vertical Motion Information Suppression: at 1800Z the model is subjected to a dead start procedure which primarily imposes a nondivergent constraint of the horizontal motion field field suppressing vertical motion. The main effect is to eliminate the mesoscale component. Comparison of results for the 1800Z to 0000Z time period will give the information desired.

Houghton, D. D.↗

Closing the loop between microstructure and charge transport in conjugated polymers by combining microscopy and simulation

A grand challenge in materials science is to identify the impact of molecular composition and structure across a range of length scales on macroscopic properties. We demonstrate a unified experimental–theoretical framework that coordinates experimental measurements of mesoscale structure with molecular-level physical modeling to bridge multiple scales of physical behavior. Here we apply this framework to understand charge transport in a semiconducting polymer. Spatially-resolved nanodiffraction in a transmission electron microscope is combined with a self-consistent framework of the polymer chain statistics to yield a detailed picture of the polymer microstructure ranging from the molecular to device relevant scale. Using these data as inputs for charge transport calculations, the combined multiscale approach highlights the underrepresented role of defects in existing transport models. Short-range transport is shown to be more chaotic than is often pictured, with the drift velocity accounting for a small portion of overall charge motion. Local transport is sensitive to the alignment and geometry of polymer chains. At longer length scales, large domains and gradual grain boundaries funnel charges preferentially to certain regions, creating inhomogeneous charge distributions. While alignment generally improves mobility, these funneling effects negatively impact mobility. The microstructure is modified in silico to explore possible design rules, showing chain stiffness and alignment to be beneficial while local homogeneity has no positive effect. This combined approach creates a flexible and extensible pipeline for analyzing multiscale functional properties and a general strategy for extending the accesible length scales of experimental and theoretical probes by harnessing their combined strengths.

42 ENGINEERING↗

EAULIQ: The Next Generation

This report summarizes the design of a new version of the stratiform cloud parameterization called Eauliq; the new version is called Eauliq NG. The key features of Eauliq NG are: (1) a prognostic fractional area covered by stratiform cloudiness, following the approach developed by M. Tiedtke for use in the ECMWF model; (2) separate prognostic thermodynamic variables for the clear and cloudy portions of each grid cell; (3) separate vertical velocities for the clear and cloudy portions of each grid cell, allowing the model to represent some aspects of observed mesoscale circulations; (4) cumulus entrainment from both the clear and cloudy portions of a grid cell, and cumulus detrainment into the cloudy portion only; and (5) the effects of the cumulus-induced subsidence in the cloudy portion of a grid cell on the cloud water and ice there. In this paper we present the mathematical framework of Eauliq NG; a discussion of cumulus effects; a new parameterization of lateral mass exchanges between clear and cloudy regions; and a theory to determine the mesoscale mass circulation, based on the hypothesis that the stratiform clouds remain neutrally buoyant through time and that the mesoscale circulations are the mechanism which makes this possible. An appendix also discusses some time-differencing methods.

Randall, David A.↗

Regional models - Emerging research tools for synoptic meteorologists

A number of regional-scale numerical weather prediction models are discussed together with their application to the study of the structure and the dynamics of mesoscale phenomena. Consideration is given to investigations of natural phenomena (such as midlatitude cyclones and related baroclinic disturbances; upper-level jet-front systems; surface frontal zones, squall lines, and rain bands; mesoscale convective systems; and severe-storm environments) in which two operational models and four research models are used for regional-model studies. It is shown that these models provide investigators with four-dimensional dynamically consistent data sets to supplement and extend those available from observations.

Keyser, Daniel↗

Understanding Ice Supersaturation, Particle Growth, and Number Concentration in Cirrus Clouds

Many factors control the ice supersaturation and microphysical properties in cirrus clouds. We explore the effects of dynamic forcing, ice nucleation mechanisms, and ice crystal growth rate on the evolution and distribution of water vapor and cloud properties in nighttime cirrus clouds using a one-dimensional cloud model with bin microphysics and remote sensing measurements obtained at the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility located near Lamont, OK. We forced the model using both large-scale vertical ascent and, for the first time, mean mesoscale velocity derived from radar Doppler velocity measurements. Both heterogeneous and homogeneous nucleation processes are explored, where a classical theory heterogeneous scheme is compared with empirical representations. We evaluated model simulations by examining both bulk cloud properties and distributions of measured radar reflectivity, lidar extinction, and water vapor profiles, as well as retrieved cloud microphysical properties. Our results suggest that mesoscale variability is the primary mechanism needed to reproduce observed quantities. Model sensitivity to the ice growth rate is also investigated. The most realistic simulations as compared with observations are forced using mesoscale waves, include fast ice crystal growth, and initiate ice by either homogeneous or heterogeneous nucleation. Simulated ice crystal number concentrations (tens to hundreds particles per liter) are typically two orders of magnitude smaller than previously published results based on aircraft measurements in cirrus clouds, although higher concentrations are possible in isolated pockets within the nucleation zone.

Comstock, Jennifer M.↗

Discrete ion stochastic continuum overdamped solvent algorithm for modeling electrolytes

In this paper we develop a methodology for the mesoscale simulation of strong electrolytes. The methodology is an extension of the fluctuating immersed-boundary approach that treats a solute as discrete Lagrangian particles that interact with Eulerian hydrodynamic and electrostatic fields. In both algorithms the immersed-boundary method of Peskin is used for particle-field coupling. Hydrodynamic interactions are taken to be overdamped, with thermal noise incorporated using the fluctuating Stokes equation, including a "dry diffusion" Brownian motion to account for scales not resolved by the coarse-grained model of the solvent. Long-range electrostatic interactions are computed by solving the Poisson equation, with short-range corrections included using an immersed-boundary variant of the classical particle-particle particle-mesh technique. Also included is a short-range repulsive force based on the Weeks-Chandler-Andersen potential. This methodology is validated by comparison to Debye-Hückel theory for ion-ion pair correlation functions, and Debye-Hückel-Onsager theory for conductivity, including the Wien effect for strong electric fields. In each case, good agreement is observed, provided that hydrodynamic interactions at the typical ion-ion separation are resolved by the fluid grid.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Characteristics of Mesoscale Organization in WRF Simulations of Convection during TWP-ICE

Compared to satellite-derived heating profiles, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GCM) convective heating is too deep and its stratiform upper-level heating is too weak. This deficiency highlights the need for GCMs to parameterize the mesoscale organization of convection. Cloud-resolving model simulations of convection near Darwin, Australia, in weak wind shear environments of different humidities are used to characterize mesoscale organization processes and to provide parameterization guidance. Downdraft cold pools appear to stimulate further deep convection both through their effect on eddy size and vertical velocity. Anomalously humid air surrounds updrafts, reducing the efficacy of entrainment. Recovery of cold pool properties to ambient conditions over 5-6 h proceeds differently over land and ocean. Over ocean increased surface fluxes restore the cold pool to prestorm conditions. Over land surface fluxes are suppressed in the cold pool region; temperature decreases and humidity increases, and both then remain nearly constant, while the undisturbed environment cools diurnally. The upper-troposphere stratiform rain region area lags convection by 5-6 h under humid active monsoon conditions but by only 1-2 h during drier break periods, suggesting that mesoscale organization is more readily sustained in a humid environment. Stratiform region hydrometeor mixing ratio lags convection by 0-2 h, suggesting that it is strongly influenced by detrainment from convective updrafts. Small stratiform region temperature anomalies suggest that a mesoscale updraft parameterization initialized with properties of buoyant detrained air and evolving to a balance between diabatic heating and adiabatic cooling might be a plausible approach for GCMs.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗

On the Evaluation of Global Sea-Salt Aerosol Models at Coastal/Orographic Sites

Sea-salt aerosol global models are typically evaluated against concentration observations at coastal stations that are unaffected by local surf conditions and thus considered representative of open ocean conditions. Despite recent improvements in sea-salt source functions, studies still show significant model errors in specific regions. Using a multiscale model, we investigated the effect of high model resolution (0.1deg x 0.1deg vs. 1deg x 1.4deg) upon sea-salt patterns in four stations from the University of Miami Network: Baring Head, Chatam Island, and Invercargill in New Zealand, and Marion Island in the sub-antarctic Indian Ocean. Normalized biases improved from +63.7% to +3.3% and correlation increased from 0.52 to 0.84. The representation of sea/land interfaces, mesoscale circulations, and precipitation with the higher resolution model played a major role in the simulation of annual concentration trends. Our results recommend caution when comparing or constraining global models using surface concentration observations from coastal stations.

sea-salt aerosol↗

Cirrus cloud development in a mobile upper tropospheric trough: The November 26th FIRE cirrus case study

The period from 18 UTC 26 Nov. 1991 to roughly 23 UTC 26 Nov. 1991 is one of the study periods of the FIRE (First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Regional Experiment) 2 field campaign. The middle and upper tropospheric cloud data that was collected during this time allowed FIRE scientists to learn a great deal about the detailed structure, microphysics, and radiative characteristics of the mid latitude cirrus that occurred during that time. Modeling studies that range from the microphysical to the mesoscale are now underway attempting to piece the detailed knowledge of this cloud system into a coherent picture of the atmospheric processes important to cirrus cloud development and maintenance. An important component of the modeling work, either as an input parameter in the case of cloud-scale models, or as output in the case of meso and larger scale models, is the large scale forcing of the cloud system. By forcing we mean the synoptic scale vertical motions and moisture budget that initially send air parcels ascending and supply the water vapor to allow condensation during ascent. Defining this forcing from the synoptic scale to the cloud scale is one of the stated scientific objectives of the FIRE program. From the standpoint of model validation, it is also necessary that the vertical motions and large scale moisture budget of the case studies be derived from observations. It is considered important that the models used to simulate the observed cloud fields begin with the correct dynamics and that the dynamics be in the right place for the right reasons.

Mace, Gerald G.↗

Observational and numerical studies of extreme frontal scale contraction

The general objective of this effort is to increase understanding of how frontal scale contraction processes may create and sustain intense mesoscale precipitation along intensifying cold fronts. The five-part project (an expansion of the originally proposed two-part project) employed conventional meteorological data, special mesoscale data, remote sensing measurements, and various numerical models. First an idealized hydrostatic modeling study of the scale contraction effects of differential cloud cover on low-level frontal structure and dynamics was completed and published in a peer-reviewed journal. The second objective was to complete and publish the results from a three dimensional numerical model simulation of a cold front in which differential sensible heating related to cloud coverage patterns was apparently crucial in the formation of a severe frontal squall line. The third objective was to use a nonhydrostatic model to examine the nonlinear interactions between the transverse circulation arising from inhomogeneous cloud cover, the adiabatic frontal circulation related to semi-geostrophic forcing, and diabatic effects related to precipitation processes, in the development of a density current-like microstructure at the leading edge of cold fronts. Although the development of a frontal model that could be used to initialize such a primitive equation model was begun, we decided to focus our efforts instead on a project that could be successfully completed in this short time, due to the lack of prospects for continued NASA funding beyond this first year (our proposal was not accepted for future funding). Thus, a fourth task was added, which was to use the nonhydrostatic model to test tentative hypotheses developed from the most detailed observations ever obtained on a density current (primarily sodar and wind profiler data). These simulations were successfully completed, the findings were reported at a scientific conference, and the results have recently been submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. The fifth objective was to complete the analysis of data collected during the Cooperative Oklahoma Profiler Studies (COPS-91) field project, which was supported by NASA. The analysis of the mesoscale surface and sounding data, Doppler radar imagery, and other remote sensing data from multi frequency wind profiler, microwave radiometer, and the Radio Acoustic Sounding System has been completed. This study is a unique investigation of processes that caused the contraction of a cold front to a microscale zone exhibiting an undular bore-like structure. Results were reported at a scientific conference and are being prepared for publication. In summary, considerable progress has been achieved under NASA funding in furthering our understanding of frontal scale contraction and density current - gravity wave interaction processes, and in utilizing models and remotely sensed data in such studies.

Koch, Steven E.↗

Engineering & Microstructure Scale PIE Report on EBR-II X441A Metallic Fuel Pins for the MORPH Experiment

The objectives of this project are to increase fundamental understanding of irradiation induced metallic U-Pu-Zr fuel behavior and to obtain data needed for the development of irradiation models for metallic fuels in MARMOT. The requested metallic fuel pins are from the X441A experiment irradiated in Experimental Breeder Reactor (EBR)-II and will be provided by the PIs for the duration of the experiment. The purpose of the pins irradiated in the X441A assembly was to vary Zr composition and fuel slug diameter in order to provide data for the metallic fuel performance code “LIFEMETAL” [ANL-IFR-125]. The fuels of interest to this project are metallic fuels with several Zr compositions (in wt.%): U-19Pu-6Zr, U-19Pu-10Zr, and U-19Pu-14Zr, which were irradiated to a peak burnup of approximately 11 at.%. The cladding was the same for all three fuel pins (austenitic stainless steel D9), which allows investigation of fuel-cladding interaction (FCI) phenomena. Varying Zr content in fuel pins enables investigation of the effect of Zr on fuel restructuring and fuel-cladding compatibility. Engineering and microstructure scale PIE activities will be focused on investigation of fundamental aspect of fuel performance such as species diffusion and migration, fission product behavior, and constituent redistribution. Obtained microstructural information will be used as the basis for the development of MARMOT models of U-Pu-Zr fuel performance at the mesoscale. Experimental data obtained through this proposal will be used to provide this fundamental understanding which will serve as the foundation of the development of radiation models for U-Pu-Zr in MARMOT. It will also provide a starting point for the design of new experiments to provide data for the validation of these MARMOT models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Forest Breeze–Cold Pool Interactions Drive Convective Organization over Heterogeneous Vegetation

Heterogeneous landscapes can influence the development of convection through the generation of thermally driven mesoscale circulations. To assess the impacts of these circulations and their interaction with sea breezes, we simulated convection in an idealized coastal environment using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). We compared simulations with striped patterns of surface vegetation to those of uniform vegetation to identify the importance of vegetation heterogeneity in impacting convective development. Under dry soil conditions representative of those during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) and Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) campaigns in June 2022, we found that these vegetation-induced circulations, referred to in the literature as “forest breezes,” are more important than the sea breeze in determining the location of convection initiation. Convection and precipitation are also found to be favored over forests and suppressed over pasture and suburban landscapes as a result of greater surface sensible heat flux over the forest. Our findings also indicate that forest breezes are important for initiating convection along the boundaries of the forest, but that cold pools may play a key role in propagating the forest breezes toward the center of the forest stripe. In our simulations, the collisions of these breezes in the center of the forest stripe lead to uplift and strong convection there; however, a different width of the forest stripe would alter when the forest breezes collide or whether they collide at all. The presence of these cold pools may therefore impact the “ideal stripe width,” the width of each vegetation stripe which maximizes domain-wide precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Updraft and Downdraft Core Size and Intensity as Revealed by Radar Wind Profilers: MCS Observations and Idealized Model Comparisons

This study explores the updraft and downdraft properties of mature stage mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in terms of draft core width, shape, intensity, and mass flux characteristics. The observations use extended radar wind profiler (RWP) and surveillance radar datasets from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program for midlatitude (Oklahoma, USA) and tropical (Amazon, Brazil) sites. MCS drafts behave qualitatively similar to previous aircraft and RWP cloud summaries. The Oklahoma MCSs indicate larger and more intense convective up- and downdraft cores, and greater mass flux than Amazon MCS counterparts. However, similar size-intensity relationships and draft vertical profile behaviors are observed for both regions. Additional similarities include weak positive correlations between core intensity and core width (correlation coefficient r ~ 0.5), and increases in draft intensity with altitude. A model-observational intercomparison for draft properties (core width, intensity, mass flux) is also performed to illustrate the potential usefulness of statistical observed draft characterizations. Idealized simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model aligned with midlatitude MCS conditions are performed at model grid spacings (?x) that range from 4 km to 250 m. It is shown that the simulations performed at ?x = 250 m at similar mature MCS lifecycle stages are those that exhibit draft intensity, width, mass flux, and shape parameter performances best matching with observed properties.

radar, arm, wind profiler, goamazon↗

Impact of Lidar Wind Sounding on Mesoscale Forecast

An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) was conducted to study the impact of airborne lidar wind sounding on mesoscale weather forecast. A wind retrieval scheme, which interpolates wind data from a grid data system, simulates the retrieval of wind profile from a satellite lidar system. A mesoscale forecast system based on the PSU/NCAR MM5 model is developed and incorporated the assimilation of the retrieved line-of-sight wind. To avoid the "identical twin" problem, the NCEP reanalysis data is used as our reference "nature" atmosphere. The simulated space-based lidar wind observations were retrieved by interpolating the NCEP values to the observation locations. A modified dataset obtained by smoothing the NCEP dataset was used as the initial state whose forecast was sought to be improved by assimilating the retrieved lidar observations. Forecasts using wind profiles with various lidar instrument parameters has been conducted. The results show that to significantly improve the mesoscale forecast the satellite should fly near the storm center with large scanning radius. Increasing lidar firing rate also improves the forecast. Cloud cover and lack of aerosol degrade the quality of the lidar wind data and, subsequently, the forecast.

Miller, Timothy L.↗

Flower‐Type Organized Trade‐Wind Cumulus: A Multi‐Day Lagrangian Large Eddy Simulation Intercomparison Study

Shallow cumulus cloud fields in subtropical marine trade wind environments, particularly over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, show distinct organizational patterns. Among these, Flower‐type clouds are characterized by expansive stratiform cloud patches surrounded by regions of scattered convection. The objectives of this study were (a) to construct a case study of a time period during the EUREC 4 A/ATOMIC field campaign when Flower‐type organization was observed, (b) to evaluate the fidelity of a multi‐model ensemble of large eddy simulations of that case, and (c) to analyze the interaction between cloud and precipitation processes and mesoscale organization in the simulations. The simulations follow a quasi‐Lagrangian trajectory, allowing mesoscale features to develop over time in a domain that follows the boundary‐layer airmass. The results show a broad agreement in simulated thermodynamic properties across different LES codes, with Flower‐type cloud patches appearing within hours of each other. The consensus among models is consistent with observations made during the EUREC 4 A/ATOMIC field campaign on the specific day of interest. The cloud structure reveals three distinct peaks in the joint probability densities of cloud base and cloud top height, with the dominant peak at any given time influenced by the stage of cloud organization. The simulated cloud system evolution reveals consistent occurrence of maxima in liquid water path and rain rate before Flower reaches its maximum length scale. Targeted sensitivity tests reveal a weak relationship between Cloud Droplet Number concentration and the extent/degree/type of organization.

EUREC4A↗

“Gray Zone” Simulations Using a Three-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract Generating accurate weather forecasts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) properties is challenging in many geographical regions, oftentimes due to complex topography or horizontal variability in, for example, land characteristics. While recent advances in high-performance computing platforms have led to an increase in the spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the horizontal gridcell spacing (Δ x ) of many regional-scale NWP models currently fall within or are beginning to approach the gray zone (i.e., Δ x ≈ 100–1000 m). At these gridcell spacings, three-dimensional (3D) effects are important, as the most energetic turbulent eddies are neither fully parameterized (as in traditional mesoscale simulations) nor fully resolved [as in traditional large-eddy simulations (LES)]. In light of this modeling challenge, we have implemented a 3D PBL parameterization for high-resolution mesoscale simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The PBL scheme, which is based on the algebraic model developed by Mellor and Yamada, accounts for the 3D effects of turbulence by calculating explicitly the momentum, heat, and moisture flux divergences in addition to the turbulent kinetic energy. In this study, we present results from idealized simulations in the gray zone that illustrate the benefit of using a fully consistent turbulence closure framework under convective conditions. While the 3D PBL scheme reproduces the evolution of convective features more appropriately than the traditional 1D PBL scheme, we highlight the need to improve the turbulent length scale formulation. Significance Statement The spatial resolution of weather models continues to increase at a rapid rate in accordance with the enhancement of computing power. As a result, smaller-scale atmospheric features become more explicitly resolved. However, most numerical models still ignore the impact of horizontal weather variations on boundary layer flows, which becomes more important at these smaller spatial scales. To address this issue, we have implemented a new modeling approach, using fundamental principles, which accounts for horizontal variability. Our results show that including three-dimensional effects of turbulence is necessary to achieve realistic boundary layer characteristics. This novel technique may be useful for many applications including complex terrain flows, pollutant dispersion, and surface–atmosphere interaction studies.

Juliano, Timothy W.↗

Modeling and simulation of vascular tumors embedded in evolving capillary networks

Here in this work, we present a coupled 3D–1D model of solid tumor growth within a dynamically changing vascular network to facilitate realistic simulations of angiogenesis. Additionally, the model includes erosion of the extracellular matrix, interstitial flow, and coupled flow in blood vessels and tissue. We employ continuum mixture theory with stochastic Cahn–Hilliard type phase-field models of tumor growth. The interstitial flow is governed by a mesoscale version of Darcy’s law. The flow in the blood vessels is controlled by Poiseuille flow, and Starling’s law is applied to model the mass transfer in and out of blood vessels. The evolution of the network of blood vessels is orchestrated by the concentration of the tumor angiogenesis factors (TAFs); blood vessels grow towards the increasing TAFs concentrations. This process is not deterministic, allowing random growth of blood vessels and, therefore, due to the coupling of nutrients in tissue and vessels, makes the growth of tumors stochastic. We demonstrate the performance of the model by applying it to a variety of scenarios. Numerical experiments illustrate the flexibility of the model and its ability to generate satellite tumors. Simulations of the effects of angiogenesis on tumor growth are presented as well as sample-independent features of cancer.

3D–1D coupled blood flow models↗