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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Timber Harvesting Economics in Early Commercial Thinning and Group Selection Prescriptions

Forest management decisions that consider both short- and long-term objectives are becoming more challenging and costly, due to market uncertainty, labor shortages, and the evolving forest industry. Under such unpredictable circumstances, a better understanding of the production economics of various silvicultural prescriptions is crucial in implementing sound forest management activities. The objectives of this study were to: a) estimate stump to landing productivity and cost for Early Commercial Thinning (ECT) and Group Selection (GS) prescriptions; and b) compare the harvest system cost ($/PMH) using machine rate and PATH (Planning and Analysis in Timber Harvesting) methods. Detailed time-motion studies were conducted in the spruce-fir forest of Northern Maine, USA, during the summer of 2019. The results, as expected, indicated the harvesting costs were 23% higher for ECT (21.08 $/m3) compared to GS (16.32 $/m3). The average productivity of the harvester and forwarder were reduced by 15 and 37%, respectively, for ECT compared to GS. The estimated harvesting system cost ($/PMH) was 4% higher as indicated by PATH compared to machine rate method. Higher operational productivity in GS can be attributed to the larger volume of logs, and shorter travel loaded distance than ECT. These findings can help forest managers make more informed decisions while implementing appropriate silvicultural prescriptions under varying conditions based on management objectives and market conditions.

Forestry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life-cycle analysis of offshore macroalgae production systems in the United States

Offshore macroalgae production offers the potential to provide valuable biomass for food, energy, and higher value products without the use of land or freshwater while using excess nutrients and carbon dioxide. To realize this potential, the Macroalgae Research Inspiring Novel Energy Resources program of the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy has initiated projects to develop advanced cultivation technologies that enable the cost- and energy-efficient production of macroalgal biomass. Here, this study addresses the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and energy return on investment for five U.S. offshore macroalgae production systems designed for deployment at the thousand-hectare scale using a detailed module developed within the GREET life-cycle analysis model for this study. The carbon intensity of macroalgae production system designs, expressed as kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per dry metric ton of algae harvested, vary widely from 49 to 220 and confirm that biomass productivity has the highest degree of sensitivity across the model parameters tested. Regardless of the system designs, the upstream and combustion emissions from fuel use are the key contributor (over 45 %) to carbon intensity, indicating that the use of low-carbon fuels (e.g., renewable diesel) could further reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Further studies need to specify the market opportunity and specific product slates for macroalgae to provide a complete picture of the environmental impacts of macroalgal feedstock.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower Potential at Non-Powered Dams: A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Tool based on Grid, Community, Industry, and Environmental Impacts

Non-powered dams (NPDs) are dams that do not include hydraulic turbine (hydropower) equipment. Currently, there are more than 80,000 such dams in the United States, which provide a variety of non-energy benefits, including flood control, water supply, navigation, and recreation. Approximately 500 of these NPDs are identified as having the potential to add hydropower generation (totaling up to a capacity of more than 8200 MW). A large share of investment costs and environmental impacts of dam construction have already been incurred at these NPDs. Hence, adding power to the existing dam structure is hypothesized to be achieved at a lower cost, with less risk, and a shorter timeframe than the development required for new dam construction. The abundance of NPDs, the associated environmental favorability, and cost advantages, combined with the reliability, predictability, and dispatchability of hydropower, make NPDs a strong candidate in the nation’s renewable energy portfolio. To assess the NPD to hydropower conversion potential, in this study, we developed a GIS-based multi-criterial decision analysis tool, which allows users to rank these NPDs based on the grid, community, industry, and environmental impacts (i.e., GCIE impacts). This web-based interactive tool (developed using open-source Python and JavaScript) lets the user choose from a wide range of features to define each of the GCIE impact scores through a user-friendly graphical user interface. These features are related to dam operation, hydropower generation opportunity, power market economy, social vulnerability and risk, proximity to critical infrastructure and energy generating facilities, environmental concerns (air, water, and critical habitat), and exposure to natural hazards. The overall priority score of NPDs is calculated based on user-defined weights for each of the GCIE impact scores. Besides ranking NPDs, the tool can also be used to estimate the energy-storage feasibility (battery, hydrogen, and pump-storage hydropower) at each of the potential sites.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Economic, Greenhouse Gas, and Resource Assessment for Fuel and Protein Production from Microalgae: 2022 Algae Harmonization Update

This report presents an updated "harmonization study" documenting the collaborative analysis of microalgae cultivation and conversion to fuels and products. Four national laboratory modeling teams reconvened to investigate the resource, economic, and environmental sustainability implications of integrated systems encompassing large-scale algae farms and conversion biorefineries. Relative to prior harmonization analyses conducted by these partners, the present effort focuses on more near-term deployment potential based on the use of nutrient-replete, high-protein algal biomass compositions (more readily achievable today without sacrificing cultivation productivity), though this also incurs challenges in lower fuel yields and accordingly higher costs and carbon intensities for the overall integrated systems. Additionally, the present assessment adds further granularity around carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sourcing and transport via carbon capture of nearby point sources, as well as handling of high-saline cultivation media and resultant blowdown/disposal processing. Finally, this assessment focuses on conversion opportunities to produce both fuel (prioritizing sustainable aviation fuel, in this case via hydrothermal liquefaction) and protein products for the food and feed markets, recognizing growing needs for such products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar Photovoltaic and Storage Supply Chains and Technology and Market Opportunities

This talk will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to track solar photovoltaic (PV) and storage supply and demand in the United States and globally, as well as bottom-up calculations of manufacturing costs for facilities across the globe. We will begin with an overview of the global solar PV supply chain and 2022 benchmark input data used for NREL's bottom-up crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV module manufacturing cost models. For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review the industry-collected input data and methods used for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, and A) expenses. This 2022 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art c-Si and thin film PV module manufacturing in several countries and regions; and will also include a quantified summary of the impacts of the manufacturing incentives and tax credits that are available for solar manufacturing and installations within the United States. Next generation technologies that lower PV manufacturing and installation costs, reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and improve system energy yield will also be highlighted. We will conclude with projections of solar market penetration to 2050 from NREL's Solar Futures Study and Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) model, which includes solar coupled with lower-cost storage scenarios as well as the range of future cost scenarios for other power generation sources. We look forward to sharing NREL's extensive work in these areas and discussing ideas for future directions.

economics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparative Analysis of Natural Gas Cogeneration Incentives on Electricity Production in Latin America

An analysis to assess the influence of country-dependent variables and incentives on the feasibility of natural gas cogeneration projects in Latin America is presented in this work. The analysis is performed using a hypothetical industrial plant, where the cogeneration solution consists in the recovery of waste heat from the power generation for steam production. The feasibility is evaluated by calculating the Return of Investment (ROI) and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the project. Eight Latin American countries are studied considering their specific natural gas markets, regulation, and macroeconomic variables. Two scenarios, electricity production for self-consumption and electricity production with power surplus sale, are independently analyzed considering the effects of available incentives. In the countries where the project is feasible, the application of incentives leads to a significant reduction in the ROI and, consequently, to an increment in the IRR. The effect of the interest rate and environmental impact were also analyzed. In general terms, along the region, the regulation for cogeneration is incipient while incentives are very standard and similar respect to lowering of import, Value-Added Tax (VAT), and income taxes, which seems to be designed purely to promote capital investment. Following the results from this study, it is of paramount importance to create new policy instruments in the future to advance the regulatory framework for cogeneration in Latin America.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model of Operation-and-Maintenance Costs for Photovoltaic Systems

This article presents a method for calculating costs associated with operation and maintenance (O&M) of photovoltaic (PV) systems. It compiles details regarding the cost and frequency of multiple O&M services to estimate annual O&M costs ($\$$/year) for each year of an analysis period, the net present value ($\$$) of life cycle costs accumulated over the analysis period, and the reserve account amount ($\$$). Here we show that this method is an improvement over the previous averaged or levelized per-unit ($\$$/kW/year) valuations for estimating PV O&M costs, because it allows a detailed selection of services to perform based on system size, market served (e.g., residential, commercial, or utility), type and configuration of system components (e.g., micro-, string or central inverter) and site and environmental conditions (e.g., snow, pollen, bird populations). This model also distinguishes costs that vary from year to year and increase at different rates over time because of heuristic failure distributions (e.g. Weibull or Lognormal distribution) based on actuarial data for many of the services. This cost model was created by the PV O&M Working Group of researchers and industry, sponsored by DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office, and has been published in an on-line version hosted by SunSpec Alliance at apsuite.sunspec.org. A spreadsheet version is included with this paper as supplementary material.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1982

Solar thermal technologies benefits assessment: Objectives, methodologies and results for 1981

The economic and social benefits of developing cost competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) were assessed. The analysis was restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high insolation/high energy price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs were considered, reflecting uncertainty over fuel prices and STT cost projections. After considering the numerous benefits of introducing STT into the energy market, three primary benefits were identified and evaluated: (1) direct energy cost savings were estimated to range from zero to $50 billion; (2) oil imports may be reduced by up to 9 percent, improving national security; and (3) significant environmental benefits can be realized in air basins where electric power plant emissions create substantial air pollution problems. STT research and development was found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. The normal risks associated with investments in research and development are accentuated because the OPEC cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut the growth of alternative energy sources.

Gates, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Mobile Computing for Aerospace Applications

The use of commercial computer technology in specific aerospace mission applications can reduce the cost and project cycle time required for the development of special-purpose computer systems. Additionally, the pace of technological innovation in the commercial market has made new computer capabilities available for demonstrations and flight tests. Three areas of research and development being explored by the Portable Computer Technology Project at NASA Ames Research Center are the application of commercial client/server network computing solutions to crew support and payload operations, the analysis of requirements for portable computing devices, and testing of wireless data communication links as extensions to the wired network. This paper will present computer architectural solutions to portable workstation design including the use of standard interfaces, advanced flat-panel displays and network configurations incorporating both wired and wireless transmission media. It will describe the design tradeoffs used in selecting high-performance processors and memories, interfaces for communication and peripheral control, and high resolution displays. The packaging issues for safe and reliable operation aboard spacecraft and aircraft are presented. The current status of wireless data links for portable computers is discussed from a system design perspective. An end-to-end data flow model for payload science operations from the experiment flight rack to the principal investigator is analyzed using capabilities provided by the new generation of computer products. A future flight experiment on-board the Russian MIR space station will be described in detail including system configuration and function, the characteristics of the spacecraft operating environment, the flight qualification measures needed for safety review, and the specifications of the computing devices to be used in the experiment. The software architecture chosen shall be presented. An analysis of the performance characteristics of wireless data links in the spacecraft environment will be discussed. Network performance and operation will be modeled and preliminary test results presented. A crew support application will be demonstrated in conjunction with the network metrics experiment.

Alena, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged with Solar Thermal Technology Using Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs and Carnot-Battery Technique Using Shallow Reservoirs: Preprint

Geological thermal energy storage (GeoTES) utilizes the underground reservoirs to storage and dispatch energy per given demand schedule over a time scale up to seasons of a year. The energy input can be of various sources/forms; in this paper, we investigate 1) the GeoTES technology with solar thermal hybridization and using depleted oil/gas reservoirs; 2) the GeoTES technology with heat pumps charged by excess renewable electricity and using low-temperature shallow reservoirs. For each GeoTES technology, we carry out the suitability analysis of candidate reservoirs, develop initial techno-economic models, and validate the model with selected case study. The paper provides an overview of our technical progress on the topics of concern and aims to promote a wider acceptance of the GeoTES technologies in the future energy market.

Carnot battery↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reserve and energy scarcity pricing in United States power markets: A comparative review of principles and practices

Here, errors in forecasting load and renewable-based generation in restructured power systems mean that independent system operators (ISOs) must procure sufficient operating reserves to keep the real-time operation of the system reliable and secure. But when procured reserves turn out to be insufficient in real-time due to the lack of resource capacity or ramp capability, operators often set higher prices for reserves and energy to encourage more supply, and to motivate consumers to decrease usage or shift it to other times. This procedure, which is called scarcity or shortage pricing, is a core feature of U.S. electricity markets. It is receiving increased attention from market designers and stakeholders because scarcity will become more important for spot price formation in the future with the increased penetration of zero-marginal cost renewables, and the shrinking role of fuel costs in setting prices. Scarcity pricing is implemented in various ways by different ISOs. These differences have practical implications for the level of prices and incentives for investment, operations, and demand modification. In this paper, general approaches and specific calculation procedures for reserve and energy scarcity pricing practices and calculations across the seven ISO-based U.S. power markets are reviewed and compared. A consistent terminology is used to facilitate the comparison. Current scarcity pricing practices are grouped into three approaches: (1) imposing an adder after the spot market is run; (2) including stepwise demand curves within market clearing procedures for non-contingency reserve products (e.g., the novel flexiramp product), which tends to yield longer right tails for energy scarcity premium curves; and (3) having stepwise demand curves for traditional contingency reserve products only, which results in shorter right tails in energy scarcity curves. A generic numerical example is presented to highlight the large practical differences among the reserve scarcity pricing approaches and specific implementations. To further investigate factors that contribute the most to demand curves differences among ISOs, a sensitivity analysis is performed. This analysis shows that the largest source of differences among the curves is the scarcity prices assumed in the case of severe scarcity, while the number of steps used and whether flexiramp is considered also yields important differences in scarcity prices. As renewable penetration increases, it will become increasingly crucial to employ administrative demand curves so that spot prices more effectively motivate supply and demand adjustments exactly when and where they are needed. This study shows that the different assumptions yield very different scarcity premiums for reserves and energy, and are likely to provide divergent incentives for resources to respond to shortages. It is concluded that to promote market efficiency, a reserve shortage demand curve should have at least three features: inclusion of the marginal value of reserve products at each shortage level, consideration of the magnitude and probability of supply contingencies, and avoidance of abrupt price discontinuities that can cause excessively volatile market outcomes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights into Methodologies and Stochastic Optimization of Thermal Energy Storage-Coupled Advanced Reactor Systems: A Comparison of Methods for Accessing Long-Term Sub-System Sizing Adequacy

This paper investigates the potential of coupling Thermal Energy Storage (TES) with Advanced Reactors (ARs) to address uncertainties posed by climate change in deep decarbonized power systems. The TES Use-case Team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has examined the potential of storing thermal energy from ARs during low demand periods and optimizing discharge during peak-priced hours, in both steady-state and transient conditions. Building on this groundwork, this study bridges the gaps in optimal sizing of the sub-system of TES-coupled AR systems using Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON), INL?s framework for grid optimization. By applying this framework, we present statistically-robust optimal charge, discharge including balance of plant (BOP), and storage sizing for the High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) with 203 MWth output. To this end, we generated synthetic price samples for 30 years using 2018 ? 2021 real-time market data from ERCOT, PJM and MISO. Our results reveals that the TES-coupled HTGR system is highly effective in maximizing revenue from electricity sales. We observed a substantial increase of 40 % in ERCOT and a noteworthy 15 % increase in PJM and MISO when compared to the conventional BOP without TES. This improvement is achieved through regionally-tailored sub-system sizing, which ranges from 398 to 416 MWth for the discharge system and 610 to 1029 MWth for the TES. We find that the average electricity price directly impacts the overall economics, while price volatility influences storage size. Additional sensitivity analyses were performed to access the impact of key assumptions on system economics and sizing, differentiating the optimization window (i.e., 24 ? 219 hours of chronological observations) and by imposing storage continuity condition in tracking TES cycles. We observed that at the 120-hour of the optimization window, a reasonable balance between computation time and accuracy was achieved. Our analysis also highlights the significance of conducting multi-day cycle analysis (> 120-hour) for TES to capture interaction between electricity prices and storage dynamics, providing a comprehensive understanding of TES behavior that AR developers should integrate into their plant designs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilience in an Age of Increasing Electrification

The purpose of this paper is to outline considerations of global electrification trends that include the resultant system-wide and nation-wide impacts. How we incorporate resilience into the electrification plans that transition a nation from conventional energy sources to secure clean energy sources can impact the success of those transitions. Electrification of energy systems has the potential to impact power system planning, emissions, and security; however, little research has been done on comprehensive solutions for incorporating resilience into the electrification process. Research has been conducted on aspects of the energy system and electrification, but not holistically across disciplines and related to the interdependencies of different components of the grid system. This gap in research provides an opportunity for more analysis and a collection of best practices to incorporate resilience into electrification plans. Although clean energy is the goal of an increasing number of nations worldwide, there are many considerations in designing clean energy transitions and increased electrification. Resilience must be factored into clean energy transitions from planning, market design, and policies to modernized grid structures and new, location-specific dispersed energy and energy storage technologies.

clean energy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Best Practices for Predicting Acoustics of a Single Rotor Using the NASA RVLT Conceptual Design Toolchain

To facilitate the development of the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) market, the NASA Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology Project has created the Conceptual Design Toolchain, a suite of tools developed and/or selected to assist rotorcraft designers in all stages of rotorcraft design. Of particular interest to the UAM noise community are the following two steps in this toolchain: comprehensive analysis and acoustic prediction. Since the UAM application is relatively new, there is a need for a systematic study on how best to utilize these codes. To this end, the current study documents best practices for using the comprehensive analysis codes, CAMRAD II and CHARM, along with the acoustic code AARON. Two single rotors are considered: i) a simple rotor and ii) a rotor that is more exemplary of what UAM designers might use. Best practices are presented for the prediction of both tonal and broadband self-noise, along with the corresponding results. The goal is to provide conceptual designers the tools to conduct accurate noise prediction using the RVLT Conceptual Design Toolchain.

Acoustics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying System Strength From Grid-Forming Resources Using Frequency Scan Approach: Preprint

Current industry practices for quantifying the system strength contribution from grid-forming (GFM) resources to ensure stability of power systems dominated by inverter-based resources (IBRs) are primarily based on iterative electromagnetic transient (EMT) time-domain simulation studies. While feasible, these approaches are resource-intensive, lack scalability and intuition, and might not evaluate the system strength contribution over the entire frequency range of interest. This paper introduces a novel, frequency-domain approach to quantify system strength support provided by a GFM resource using frequency scans. The proposed method uses transfer functions from the grid voltage magnitude (V) and phase (?), respectively, to the reactive (Q) and active power (P) output of a GFM resource for quantifying its contribution to system strength. These transfer functions provide a direct measure of the ability of a GFM resource to behave as a stiff voltage source behind a reactance over a specified frequency range, enabling robust quantification of its system strength contribution. The key innovation of this work is the development of a frequency domain system strength metric called the dynamic short-circuit ratio (dSCR) that is suitable for IBR-dominated power systems and is directly related with the familiar short circuit ratio (SCR) metric. The new metric, dSCR, enables the assessment of system strength contributions from both synchronous machines and converter-based GFM resources using a unified benchmark, which is not possible with the traditional SCR metric. The paper also demonstrates how impedance scans could identify if an unstable condition observed during weak grid conditions is a result of the lack active or reactive power support or both. By leveraging the proposed frequency-domain dSCR metric for quantifying system strength contribution from GFM IBRs, the paper demonstrates targeted mitigation strategies for weak grid instabilities without resorting to repeated, time-consuming time-domain simulations. The result is a scalable and efficient approach to remediate stability challenges in power systems with high shares of IBRs and accelerating the integration of GFM technologies for system strength support in power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Software Quality Assurance Plan ANSYS LSDYNA Version 2023R1

ANSYS Inc. develops and markets engineering simulation software and services used in the aerospace, automotive, manufacturing, electronics, biomedical, energy, defense, and many other industries. ANSYS is dedicated to engineering simulation and is the world’s leading software provider. ANSYS was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania. ANSYS provides an engineering analysis tool combining structural, thermal, computational fluid dynamics, acoustic and electromagnetic simulation capabilities. ANSYS LS-DYNA is the most used explicit simulation program capable of simulating the response of materials to short periods of severe loading. Its many elements, contact formulations, material models, and other controls can be used to simulate complex models with control over all the details of the problem. ANSYS LS-DYNA has a vast array of capabilities to simulate extreme deformation problems using its explicit solver. Engineers can tackle simulations involving material failure and look at how the failure progresses through a part or through a system. Models with large amounts of parts or surfaces interacting with each other are also easily handled, and the interactions and load passing between complex behaviors are modeled accurately. Using computers with higher numbers of CPU cores can drastically reduce solution times. In addition, many consulting firms and hundreds of universities use ANSYS for analysis, research, and educational purposes. ANSYS is recognized worldwide as one of the most widely used and capable programs of its type. ANSYS has successfully passed over 100 customer quality system audits against American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) NQA-1 and 10 CFR Part 50, Appendix B, since the company was founded, over 60 of which have been since 1997. ANSYS has successfully passed over 100 International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 9001 assessments. ANSYS design analysis software is the first created within a quality system with ISO 9001 certification, which is the internationally accepted quality standard. Product development, testing, maintenance, and support processes also meet the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) quality requirements, as they have for nearly four decades. ANSYS staff perform more than 60,000 software verification tests before releasing each new product. ASME NQA-1-2012 (Subpart 2.7 is specific to software) is the industry- and NRC-accepted approach (consensus standard) for meeting 10 CFR Part 50, Appendix B, requirements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adoption Pathways for DC Power Distribution in Buildings

Driven by the proliferation of DC energy sources and DC end-use devices (e.g., photovoltaics, battery storage, solid-state lighting, and consumer electronics), DC power distribution in buildings has recently emerged as a path to improved efficiency, resilience, and cost savings in the transitioning building sector. Despite these important benefits, there are several technological and market barriers impeding the development of DC distribution, which have kept this technology at the demonstration phase. This paper identifies specific end-use cases for which DC distribution in buildings is viable today. We evaluate their technology and market readiness, as well as their efficiency, cost, and resiliency benefits while addressing implementation barriers. The paper starts with a technology review, followed by a comprehensive market assessment, in which we analyze DC distribution field deployments and their end-use characteristics. We also conduct a survey of DC power and building professionals through on-site visits and phone interviews and summarize lessons learned and recommendations. In addition, the paper includes a novel efficiency analysis, in which we quantify energy savings from DC distribution for different end-use categories. Based on our findings, we present specific adoption pathways for DC in buildings that can be implemented today, and for each pathway we identify challenges and offer recommendations for the research and building community.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1984

Polycrystalline silicon study: Low-cost silicon refining technology prospects and semiconductor-grade polycrystalline silicon availability through 1988

Photovoltaic arrays that convert solar energy into electrical energy can become a cost effective bulk energy generation alternative, provided that an adequate supply of low cost materials is available. One of the key requirements for economic photovoltaic cells is reasonably priced silicon. At present, the photovoltaic industry is dependent upon polycrystalline silicon refined by the Siemens process primarily for integrated circuits, power devices, and discrete semiconductor devices. This dependency is expected to continue until the DOE sponsored low cost silicon refining technology developments have matured to the point where they are in commercial use. The photovoltaic industry can then develop its own source of supply. Silicon material availability and market pricing projections through 1988 are updated based on data collected early in 1984. The silicon refining industry plans to meet the increasing demands of the semiconductor device and photovoltaic product industries are overviewed. In addition, the DOE sponsored technology research for producing low cost polycrystalline silicon, probabilistic cost analysis for the two most promising production processes for achieving the DOE cost goals, and the impacts of the DOE photovoltaics program silicon refining research upon the commercial polycrystalline silicon refining industry are addressed.

Costogue, E. N.↗