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An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering

Abstract An open‐source, physics‐based tropical cyclone (TC) downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of TCs. The model is composed of three primary components: (a) a random seeding process that determines genesis, (b) an intensity‐dependent beta‐advection model that determines the track, and (c) a non‐linear differential equation set that determines the intensification rate. The model is entirely forced by the large‐scale environment. Downscaling ERA5 reanalysis data shows that the model is generally able to reproduce observed TC climatology, such as the global seasonal cycle, genesis locations, track density, and lifetime maximum intensity distributions. Inter‐annual variability in TC count and power‐dissipation is also well captured, on both basin‐wide and global scales. Regional TC hazard estimated by this model is also analyzed using return period maps and curves. In particular, the model is able to reasonably capture the observed return period curves of landfall intensity in various sub‐basins around the globe. The incorporation of an intensity‐dependent steering flow is shown to lead to regionally dependent changes in power dissipation and return periods. Advantages and disadvantages of this model, compared to other downscaling models, are also discussed.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

A Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression Method for Probabilistic Wind Farm Power Curve Estimation

Accurate estimation of the power curve for wind turbines or wind farms is crucial to ensure their efficient operation and management. However, conventional methods for power curve estimation rely either on expensive and infrequent measurements or on low-quality numerical simulations. Moreover, the majority of previous studies on power curve estimation for wind turbines or wind farms focused on deterministic estimation, which provides a point estimate of the relationship between wind speed and power generation. Nevertheless, the deterministic approach fails to consider the inherent uncertainty associated with wind energy production resulting from varying turbine characteristics. This can lead to inaccurate power generation estimation and suboptimal decisions regarding energy management. In this paper, a kernel density estimation (KDE) based Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression (MFGPR) model is proposed to fuse theoretical power curve data and the ground true measurements to create a mapping of wind speed and wind power. By conducting a case study on an actual wind farm in China, the efficacy of the proposed MFGPR model was demonstrated in characterizing the variability of wind power. The probabilistic MFGPR model was also able to generate confidence intervals that encompassed the measured power, thereby improving the accuracy and confidence in wind power estimation or wind resource assessment. Overall, the proposed MFGPR model offers a reliable approach to integrate high-fidelity ground measurements and theoretical power curve data, resulting in precise wind resource assessment and power estimation.

Gaussian process regression↗

WHONDRS Summer 2019 Sampling Campaign: Global River Corridor Surface Water FTICR-MS, NPOC, TN, Anions, Stable Isotopes, Bacterial Abundance, and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (v8)

The WHONDRS Summer 2019 Sampling (S19S) Campaign collected samples in 97 globally distributed river corridor systems between July and September 2019. Surficial streambed sediments were collected at three locations within each site (upstream, midstream, and downstream). Surface water was collected at the downstream site. This dataset includes a portion of the data types produced from the surface water samples and does not include any results from the sediment. Sediment data can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1729719. The S19S campaign was designed with the science community to ask questions associated with links among core/transient metabolomes, microbial metabolism, biogeochemical function, and physical properties of watershed and river corridor systems. This data package was originally published in March 2020. It was updated in October 2020 (v2, new and modified files), July 2021 (v3, new and modified files), January 2023 (v4, new and modified files), February 2023 (v5, new and modified files), August 2023 (v6, new and modified files), July 2025 (v7,new and modified files), and August 2026 (v8, new and modified files). Version 8 includes major restructuring of the files and their formats. See the change history section in readme for more details. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset contains (1) readme, (2) data dictionary, (3) file level metadata, (4) sampling protocol, (5) a data checks report, (6) field metadata, (7) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file, (8) joint genome institute (JGI) mapping file, and (9) a folder of sample data. The sample data folder contains (1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) and FTICR methods, (2) dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), (3) stable water isotopes (O and H), (4) specific conductivity, (5) total dissolved nitrogen (TN), (6) anions, (7) flow cytometry bacterial abundance data, (8) laboratory methods, and (9) a folder containing unaligned, peak-picked high resolution characterization of dissolved organic matter from sediment via 12 Tesla Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) through the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL, https://www.pnnl.gov/environmental-molecular-sciences-laboratory), and (12) a folder containing processed FTICR-MS data. All files are .msa, .txt, .spx, .xml, .csv, .pdf, .txt, .html, .jpg, or .jpeg.

18-O↗

WHONDRS Summer 2019 Sampling Campaign: Global River Corridor Sediment FTICR-MS, Dissolved Organic Carbon, Aerobic Respiration, Elemental Composition, Grain Size, Total Nitrogen and Organic Carbon Content, Bacterial Abundance, and Stable Isotopes (v10)

The WHONDRS Summer 2019 Sampling (S19S) Campaign collected samples in 97 globally distributed river corridor systems between July and September 2019. Surficial streambed sediments were collected at three locations within each site (upstream, midstream, and downstream). Surface water was collected at the downstream site. This dataset includes a portion of the data types produced from the sediment samples and does not include any results from the surface water. Surface water data can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1603775. The S19S campaign was designed with the science community to ask questions associated with links among core/transient metabolomes, microbial metabolism, biogeochemical function, and physical properties of watershed and river corridor systems. This data package was originally published in December 2020. It was updated in April 2021 (v2; modified files), May 2022 (v3; new and modified files), November 2022 (v4; new and modified files), January 2023 (v5 and v6; new and modified files), February 2023 (v7; new and modified files), August 2023 (v8; new and modified files), July 2025 (v9; new and modified files), and June 2026 (v10; new and modified files). Version 10 includes major restructuring of the files and their formats. See the change history in the readme for details. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset contains (1) readme, (2) data dictionary, (3) file level metadata, (4) sampling protocol, (5) a data checks report, (6) field metadata, (7) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file, (8) joint genome institute (JGI) mapping file, (9) a folder of site photos, and (10) a folder of sample data. The sample data folder contains (1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) and FTICR methods; (2) respiration rates and normalized respiration rates calculated from laboratory sediment incubations, (3) X-ray fluorescence (XRF) elemental composition, (4) grain size distribution from the < 2 millimeter fraction of sediment, (5) total organic carbon and total nitrogen content, (6) bacterial abundance flow cytometry data, (7) sediment stable isotopes (C and N), (8) laboratory methods, (9) water and sediment mass and volume used in incubations, (10) a folder with code, inputs, and plots for the respiration rates, (11) a folder containing XRF data, (12) a folder containing unaligned, peak-picked high resolution characterization of dissolved organic matter from sediment via 12 Tesla Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) through the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL; https://www.pnnl.gov/environmental-molecular-sciences-laboratory), (12) and a folder containing processed FTICR-MS data. All files are .msa, .txt, .spx, .xml, .csv, .pdf, .txt, .jpg, or .jpeg.

13C↗

Future directions in experimental gamma ray astronomy

Better vehicles and instruments are needed if gamma ray spectroscopy in astrophysics and cosmology is to advance. A gamma ray observatory will (1) permit long-term observations of selected sources to measure their variability and to achieve high sensitivity; (2) measure periods in days or weeks; and (3) assess the entire sky to observe various predicted sources, to measure the energy spectrum, and to map the isotropy of the cosmic ray background over larger collecting areas (of the order of a square meter). Conventional and unconventional instruments must cover the energy range from 0.1 MeV to 20 MeV with improved sensitivity. Angular resolution must be improved one degree or more to study discrete X-ray sources in the galactic center. Actively collimated detectors, improved double Compton instruments, and gamma ray correlators to actively synthesize the absolute energy spectrum of the sky protons are discussed as well as the need for scientific balloons.

Haymes, R. C.↗

A Determination of the Optimum Time of Year for Remotely Classifying Marsh Vegetation from LANDSAT Multispectral Scanner Data

The author has identified the following significant results. A technique was used to determine the optimum time for classifying marsh vegetation from computer-processed LANDSAT MSS data. The technique depended on the analysis of data derived from supervised pattern recognition by maximum likelihood theory. A dispersion index, created by the ratio of separability among the class spectral means to variability within the classes, defined the optimum classification time. Data compared from seven LANDSAT passes acquired over the same area of Louisiana marsh indicated that June and September were optimum marsh mapping times to collectively classify Baccharis halimifolia, Spartina patens, Spartina alterniflora, Juncus roemericanus, and Distichlis spicata. The same technique was used to determine the optimum classification time for individual species. April appeared to be the best month to map Juncus roemericanus; May, Spartina alterniflora; June, Baccharis halimifolia; and September, Spartina patens and Distichlis spicata. This information is important, for instance, when a single species is recognized to indicate a particular environmental condition.

Butera, M. K.↗

Digital computer program for generating dynamic turbofan engine models (DIGTEM)

This report describes DIGTEM, a digital computer program that simulates two spool, two-stream turbofan engines. The turbofan engine model in DIGTEM contains steady-state performance maps for all of the components and has control volumes where continuity and energy balances are maintained. Rotor dynamics and duct momentum dynamics are also included. Altogether there are 16 state variables and state equations. DIGTEM features a backward-differnce integration scheme for integrating stiff systems. It trims the model equations to match a prescribed design point by calculating correction coefficients that balance out the dynamic equations. It uses the same coefficients at off-design points and iterates to a balanced engine condition. Transients can also be run. They are generated by defining controls as a function of time (open-loop control) in a user-written subroutine (TMRSP). DIGTEM has run on the IBM 370/3033 computer using implicit integration with time steps ranging from 1.0 msec to 1.0 sec. DIGTEM is generalized in the aerothermodynamic treatment of components.

Daniele, C. J.↗

Remote Sensing Measurements of Vertical and Horizontal Moisture Variations from Aircraft Instruments

The research in this paper focuses on describing vertical and horizontal of water vapor variability using two remote sensing aircraft instruments. To achieve this goal we will compare precipitable water and upper level humidity estimates derived from the each of the instruments. The Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS) is a visible and infrared radiometer with similar channels to that of the GOES imager. MAMS has flown aboard the NASA ER-2 numerous times. It has been used to validate features observed with the previous series of GOES satellites. MAMS data has been used to study precipitable water and upper level water vapor as well as other geophysical parameters. MAMS provides the opportunity to obtain water vapor Imagery at 6.7 mm. Upper tropospheric humidity can be computed using this channel in a similar fashion to that of Soden and Bretherton. In addition to the water vapor channel, MAMS records data In 3 other Infrared channels and 8 visible and near Infrared bands at high spatial resolution (I 00 Abstract: m). The 1 1 and 12 mm infrared channels allow for the application of a split technique to derive total precipitable water. The Udar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) which uses the Differential Absorption Udar (DIAL) technique for obtaining simultaneous water vapor and aerosol profiles through the entire troposphere. LASE operates In the 81 5 nm wavelength region and uses a double pulsed Ti:sapphire laser that is locked onto a water vapor line. LASE has good horizontal (IO km) and excellent vertical (300 m) resolution. MAMS and LASE collected data simultaneously on several ER-2 flights in September 1995. LASE mixing ratio profiles will be Integrated for comparison with MAMS precipitable water estimates and the upper tropospheric humidity will be computed for the layer observed by the MAMS 6.7 mm channel for comparison for this time period. Results show a significant correlation between the measurements of the two Instruments. Regions of high/low upper tropospheric humidity are apparent In measurements from both instruments. Also changes in boundary layer moisture depicted by LASE are reflected in the total precipitable water measured by MAMS.

Atkinson, R. J.↗

Multiple Scattering of Laser Pulses in Snow Over Ice: Modeling the Potential Bias in ICESat Altimetry

The primary goal of NASA's current ICESat and future ICESat2 missions is to map the altitude of the Earth's land ice with high accuracy using laser altimetry technology, and to measure sea ice freeboard. Ice however is a highly transparent optical medium with variable scattering and absorption properties. Moreover, it is often covered by a layer of snow with varying depth and optical properties largely dependent on its age. We describe a modeling framework for estimating the potential altimetry bias caused by multiple scattering in the layered medium. We use both a Monte Carlo technique and an analytical diffusion model valid for optically thick media. Our preliminary numerical results are consistent with estimates of the multiple scattering delay from laboratory measurements using snow harvested in Greenland, namely, a few cm. Planned refinements of the models are described.

Davis, A. B.↗

Satellite and Surface Perspectives of Snow Extent in the Southern Appalachian Mountains

Assessing snow cover patterns in mountain regions remains a challenge for a variety of reasons. Topography (e.g., elevation, exposure, aspect, and slope) strongly influences snowfall accumulation and subsequent ablation processes, leading to pronounced spatial variability of snow cover. In-situ observations are typically limited to open areas at lower elevations (<1000 m). In this paper, we use several products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to assess snow cover extent in the Southern Appalachian Mountains (SAM). MODIS daily snow cover maps and true color imagery are analyzed after selected snow events (e.g., Gulf/Atlantic Lows, Alberta Clippers, and Northwest Upslope Flow) from 2006 to 2012 to assess the spatial patterns of snowfall across the SAM. For each event, we calculate snow cover area across the SAM using MODIS data and compare with the Interactive Multi-sensor Snow and ice mapping system (IMS) and available in-situ observations. Results indicate that Gulf/Atlantic Lows are typically responsible for greater snow extent across the entire SAM region due to intensified cyclogenesis associated with these events. Northwest Upslope Flow events result in snow cover extent that is limited to higher elevations (>1000 m) across the SAM, but also more pronounced along NW aspects. Despite some limitations related to the presence of ephemeral snow or cloud cover immediately after each event, we conclude that MODIS products are useful for assessing the spatial variability of snow cover in heavily forested mountain regions such as the SAM.

Sugg, Johnathan W.↗

Reactant conversion in homogeneous turbulence: Mathematical modeling, computational validations and practical applications

Closed form analytical expressions are obtained for predicting the limited rate of reactant conversion in a binary reaction of the type F + rO yields (1 + r) Product in unpremixed homogeneous turbulence. These relations are obtained by means of a single point Probability Density Function (PDF) method based on the Amplitude Mapping Closure. It is demonstrated that with this model, the maximum rate of the reactants' decay can be conveniently expressed in terms of definite integrals of the Parabolic Cylinder Functions. For the cases with complete initial segregation, it is shown that the results agree very closely with those predicted by employing a Beta density of the first kind for an appropriately defined Shvab-Zeldovich scalar variable. With this assumption, the final results can also be expressed in terms of closed form analytical expressions which are based on the Incomplete Beta Functions. With both models, the dependence of the results on the stoichiometric coefficient and the equivalence ratio can be expressed in an explicit manner. For a stoichiometric mixture, the analytical results simplify significantly. In the mapping closure, these results are expressed in terms of simple trigonometric functions. For the Beta density model, they are in the form of Gamma Functions. In all the cases considered, the results are shown to agree well with data generated by Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS). Due to the simplicity of these expressions and because of nice mathematical features of the Parabolic Cylinder and the Incomplete Beta Functions, these models are recommended for estimating the limiting rate of reactant conversion in homogeneous reacting flows. These results also provide useful insights in assessing the extent of validity of turbulence closures in the modeling of unpremixed reacting flows. Some discussions are provided on the extension of the model for treating more complicated reacting systems including realistic kinetics schemes and multi-scalar mixing with finite rate chemical reactions in more complex configurations.

Madnia, C. K.↗

Probing the Physics of Active Galactic Nuclei

As a result of a number of large multiwavelength monitoring campaigns that have taken place since the late 1980s, there are now several very large data sets on bright variable active galactic nuclei (AGNs) that are well-sampled in time and can be used to probe the physics of the AGN continuum source and the broad-line emitting region. Most of these data sets have been underutilized, as the emphasis thus far has been primarily on reverberation-mapping issues alone. Broader attempts at analysis have been made on some of the earlier IUE data sets (e.g., data from the 1989 campaign on NGC5 548) , but much of this analysis needs to be revisited now that improved versions of the data are now available from final archive processing. We propose to use the multiwavelength monitoring data that have been accumulated to undertake more thorough investigations of the AGN continuum and broad emission lines, including a more detailed study of line-profile variability, making use of constraints imposed by the reverberation results.

Peterson, Bradley M.↗

An Evaluation of Dynamical Downscaling Methods Used to Project Regional Climate Change

In the past decade, dynamical downscaling using “pseudo-global-warming” (PGW) techniques has been applied frequently to project regional climate change. Such techniques generate signals by adding mean global climate model (GCM)-simulated climate change signals in temperature, moisture, and circulation to lateral and surface boundary conditions derived from reanalysis. An alternative to PGW is to downscale GCM data directly. This technique should be advantageous, especially for simulation of extremes, since it incorporates the GCM's full spectrum of changing synoptic-scale dynamics in the regional solution. Here, we test this assumption, by comparing simulations in Europe and Western North America. We find that for warming and changes in temperature extremes, PGW often produces similar results to direct downscaling in both regions. For mean and extreme precipitation changes, PGW generally also performs surprisingly well in many cases. Moisture budget analysis in the Western North America domain reveals why. Large fractions of the downscaled hydroclimate changes arise from mean changes in large-scale thermodynamics and circulation, that is, increases in temperature, moisture, and winds, included in PGW by design. The one component PGW may have difficulty with is the contribution from changes in synoptic-scale variability. When this component is large, PGW performance could be degraded. Global analysis of GCM data shows there are regions where it is large or dominant. Hence, our results provide a road map to identify, through GCM analyses, the circumstances when PGW would not be expected to accurately regionalize GCM climate signals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Upscaling Soil Organic Carbon Measurements at the Continental Scale Using Multivariate Clustering Analysis and Machine Learning

Abstract Estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are essential for many environmental applications. However, significant inconsistencies exist in SOC stock estimates for the U.S. across current SOC maps. We propose a framework that combines unsupervised multivariate geographic clustering (MGC) and supervised Random Forests regression, improving SOC maps by capturing heterogeneous relationships with SOC drivers. We first used MGC to divide the U.S. into 20 SOC regions based on the similarity of covariates (soil biogeochemical, bioclimatic, biological, and physiographic variables). Subsequently, separate Random Forests models were trained for each SOC region, utilizing environmental covariates and SOC observations. Our estimated SOC stocks for the U.S. (52.6 ± 3.2 Pg for 0–30 cm and 108.3 ± 8.2 Pg for 0–100 cm depth) were within the range estimated by existing products like Harmonized World Soil Database, HWSD (46.7 Pg for 0–30 cm and 90.7 Pg for 0–100 cm depth) and SoilGrids 2.0 (45.7 Pg for 0–30 cm and 133.0 Pg for 0–100 cm depth). However, independent validation with soil profile data from the National Ecological Observatory Network showed that our approach ( R 2 = 0.51) outperformed the estimates obtained from Harmonized World Soil Database ( R 2 = 0.23) and SoilGrids 2.0 ( R 2 = 0.39) for the topsoil (0–30 cm). Uncertainty analysis (e.g., low representativeness and high coefficients of variation) identified regions requiring more measurements, such as Alaska and the deserts of the U.S. Southwest. Our approach effectively captures the heterogeneous relationships between widely available predictors and the current SOC baseline across regions, offering reliable SOC estimates at 1 km resolution for benchmarking Earth system models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A TOpographic Mapping (ATOM) Method to Design Magnetic Cores

Wireless power transfer offers safe, convenient, and efficient way of charging electric vehicles. Ongoing research is targeting wireless charging pad design optimization; designing the magnetic component is the most important part of the coupler design because the magnetic part determines the coupling factor and efficiency. Optimizing the coil layout and geometry as well as ferrite design requires finite elements analysis based modeling and simulation for minimized core losses, maximized magnetic coupling, and minimized material use for cost-effectiveness. Although parametric finite element analysis or emerging artificial intelligence methods can generate very accurate results, simulation times are extremely long. To address this issue, this study proposes a simple, effective core design called A TOpographic Mapping (ATOM). The proposed design is based on the design of magnetic core by using the magnetic flux distribution. The thickness of the core increases with increasing magnetic flux density, forming a variable thickness core design with less material and minimized core losses compared to conventional designs. A superimposing method is used to create an optimal design for a rotational magnetic field-based system. According to simulation results, the ATOM design reduces the required material volume by 13.19% and yields the lowest core loss and highest mutual inductance compared to other designs. In addition, misalignment, electromagnetic interference, and thermal performance were evaluated for the proposed design.

Aydin, Emrullah [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

Range data description based on multiple characteristics

An algorithm for describing range images based on Mean curvature (H) and Gaussian curvature (K) is presented. Range images are unique in that they directly approximate the physical surfaces of a real world 3-D scene. The curvature parameters are derived from the fundamental theorems of differential geometry and provides visible invariant pixel labels that can be used to characterize the scene. The sign of H and K can be used to classify each pixel into one of eight possible surface types. Due to the sensitivity of these parameters to noise the resulting HK-sing map does not directly identify surfaces in the range images and must be further processed. A region growing algorithm based on modeling the scene points with a Markov Random Field (MRF) of variable neighborhood size and edge models is suggested. This approach allows the integration of information from multiple characteristics in an efficient way. The performance of the proposed algorithm on a number of synthetic and real range images is discussed.

Al-Hujazi, Ezzet↗

Thermal oxidation of single-crystal silicon carbide - Kinetic, electrical, and chemical studies

This paper presents kinetic data from oxidation studies of the polar faces for 3C and 6H SiC in wet and dry oxidizing ambients. Values for the linear and parabolic rate constants were obtained, as well as preliminary results for the activation energies of the rate constants. Examples are presented describing how thermal oxidation can be used to map polytypes and characterize defects in epitaxial layers grown on low tilt angle 6H SiC substrates. Interface widths were measured using Auger electron spectroscopy (AES) with Ar ion beam depth profiling and variable angle spectroscopic ellipsometry (VASE) with effective medium approximation (EMA) models. Preliminary electrical measurements of MOS capacitors are also presented.

Petit, J. B.↗

Remotely-Sensed Regional-Scale Evapotranspiration of a Semi-Arid Great Basin Desert and its Relationship to Geomorphology, Soils, and Vegetation

Landsat thematic mapper data are used to estimate instantaneous regional-scale surface water and energy fluxes in a semi-arid Great Basin desert of the western United States. Results suggest that it is possible to scale from point measurements of environmental state variables to regional estimates of water and energy exchange. This research characterizes the unifying thread in the classical climate-topography-soil-vegetation relation -the surface water and energy balance-through maps of the partitioning of energy throughout the landscape. The study was conducted in Goshute Valley of northeastern Nevada, which is characteristic of most faulted graben valleys of the Basin and Range Province of the western United States. The valley comprises a central playa and lake plain bordered by alluvial fans emanating from the surrounding mountains. The distribution of evapotranspiration (ET) is lowest in the middle reaches of the fans where the water table is deep and plants are small, resulting in low evaporation and transpiration. Highest ET occurs in the center of the valley, particularly in the playa, where limited to no vegetation occurs, but evaporation is relatively high because of a shallow water table and silty clay soil capable of large capillary movement. Intermediate values of ET are associated with large shrubs and is dominated by transpiration.

Laymon, C.↗