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Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.

42 ENGINEERING↗

HERO CarbonSAFE Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Basalt CO2 storage has several advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. Associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. Reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. Widespread geographic distribution and, 5. Large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. And for locations such as the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, basalts may offer the only economically feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt, and current carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) permitting and regulatory frameworks were developed for conventional saline reservoirs. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts. The HERO CarbonSAFE project will assess feasibility of developing a commercial-scale (50+ million metric tons of CO2) geological storage complex within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), a layered continental flood basalt complex that underlies Calpine’s natural gas-fired Hermiston Power Project (HPP) in Hermiston, OR (Figure 1). Under this 2-year CarbonSAFE Phase II project, the HERO team will conduct a data acquisition campaign that includes drilling a stratigraphic well to a total depth of ~1,500 m into the thick layered basalts proximal to HPP. A comprehensive well logging and hydrologic testing program will be augmented with new core collected from flow zones and sealing units, and comprehensive laboratory testing to help refine the kinetic rates of mineralization. The newly acquired information will be integrated with existing data from regional wells to correlate basalt injection zone properties to develop storage hub/commercial-scale models. Using these models, the project team will evaluate injection scenarios to define the technical and economic potential for storing a minimum of 50 million metric tons of CO2 over a 30-year period, along with a robust sensitivity analysis on key parameters governing reservoir viability for sustainable injection over a commercial project lifetime. Specific technical objectives of HERO are: (1) assessing the reservoir response of a series of stacked layered reservoir flowtop sequences occurring in this area of the CRBG to commercial-scale injection volumes; (2) extending prior efforts by the project team to characterize the deep layered basalts encountered in regional studies, to leverage prior investments by U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Carbon Storage program; (3) leveraging DOE’s mineralization characterization efforts to advance model parametrization for commercial scale injection of CO2 in basalts; (4) conducting risk assessments associated with scaling up to commercial storage hub injection goals, while validating DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tools, to identify potential constraints that would prevent the CRBG from serving as a commercial-scale storage complex; (5) developing mitigation plans to address identified risks; (6) developing a commercial-scale injection and monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) strategy; (7) utilizing computational models to define and minimize, if possible, the Area of Review (AoR) under Class VI regulations; and (8) developing a robust CO2 management strategy for CRBG that also considers a regional source/sink approach that is responsive to stakeholder needs and industrial demand. Specific institutional objectives are: (1) identifying and developing plans to mitigate the nontechnical challenges associated with the build-out of a commercial-scale storage complex within the CRBG with integrated CO2 sources; (2) implementing the community outreach plan; (3) conducting regulatory research, including a survey of issues related to pore space ownership, MVA and long-term assurance of mineralization-based storage, to support an eventual application for a UIC Class VI permit; (4) advancing the project’s plan for CO2 liability management; and (5) continuing to refine and update the project’s economic model. The final objective is the preparation of a comprehensive Site Characterization Plan that draws upon the technical and institutional feasibility assessments to prepare the project for future commercialization efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

New data-driven approach to bridging power system protection gaps with deep learning

Protection is a critical function in power systems to avoid equipment damage, maintain personnel safety, and support system reliability. However, current protective relay technology cannot adequately protect equipment and personnel from effects of some events; these deficiencies are termed protection gaps. In this paper, a data-driven approach is proposed to complement traditional protection technology and distinguish fault conditions from transients caused by normal operations. A combined convolutional neural network and long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM) network is implemented to achieve data translation invariance and capture the temporal correlation of the time-series input data. As a result, the data-driven method can accurately detect system faults despite variation and noise in the input data. In addition, using the CNN-LSTM--based method avoids the complicated, manual feature extraction procedure required by many traditional data-driven methods. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is tested on two kinds of protection gaps: high-impedance faults and transformer inter-turn faults. Lastly, a transfer learning method is also proposed to address the common issue of data-driven methods for which real-world training data are scarce. Extensive study results demonstrate that the proposed approach can accurately bridge power system protection gaps.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Decomposition characteristics of C4F7N-based SF6-alternative gas mixtures

C4F7N [2,3,3,3-tetrafluoro-2-(trifluoromethyl)propanenitrile]/CO2 gas mixtures are being developed as an eco-friendly electrical insulator to replace SF6, the most potent greenhouse industrial gaseous dielectric. However, recent studies have reported complicated and often conflicting decomposition pathways for C4F7N/CO2 gas mixtures, which has raised concerns. In this work, the decomposition characteristics of C4F7N/CO2 gas mixtures were studied comprehensively by both designed computations and experiments. Computations were performed starting from fundamental propositions of C4F7N/CO2 decompositions, which were further experimentally verified by pyrolysis, long-term thermal aging with/without catalytic materials (industrial-grade molecular sieves 4A), and electrical decomposition by spark discharge. The results of both computations and experiments suggest that in an ideal thermal decomposition, C4F7N is likely to decompose into C2F6 and small fluoronitriles first at high temperatures. The generation of C3F6 and C2N2 from C4F7N thermal decomposition at lower temperatures appears because of the catalytic effect of incompatible materials, for example, the industrial-grade molecular sieves 4A that we tested. The electron impact dissociation of C4F7N plays an important role in C4F7N electrical decomposition, leading to additional formation of distinctive small molecules of CF4 and C2N2 of low concentrations. It was pointed out based on a real arcing test in a load disconnector that the decomposition of C4F7N gas mixtures in real applications will be at a much moderate and manageable rate than what was obtained from the highly accelerated laboratory tests presented in this work. The signatures of decomposition products extracted in this study provide invaluable guidance for developing decomposition-based diagnosis and fixation of decomposition byproducts toward SF6-free power grids.

Physics↗

Modeling of Radiolytic Hydrogen Generation of Irradiated Surrogate Aluminum Plates

The hydrogen generation from oxyhydroxide layers under irradiation is an important effect to understand for the long-term storage of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel. The original chemical model shows steady production of hydrogen from aluminum oxyhydroxide layers, with no roll-over effect in the curves of the hydrogen concentration until significant pressure has built up within the canister. This study uses a variety of kinetic fits to adjust the old chemical model to have roll-over effects that are consistent with new high-dose experiments. The data from aluminum 6061 coupon tests at high doses were used to fit several kinetic models. The 6061 aluminum samples are representative of the aluminum-clad fuel from the ATR. The fitted kinetic models were then used in a model of a mini-canister with much higher packing density to determine which kinetic rates would fit both sets of experimental tests. The rate constants for the kinetic mechanisms that were close were then tweaked such that the chemical models fit both the experimental data from the capsule tests and the data from the mini-canister tests. The kinetic models which fit the best are either inhibition by hydrogen, or a back reaction wherein H radical is reabsorbed onto the oxyhydroxide layer. The H back reaction rolls over quicker and may fit future collected data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Material Property Determinations for Rock Valley Legacy Samples in Support of Source Physics Experiment

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve nonproliferation verification and monitoring capabilities. The overarching goals of the SPE program are to improve understanding of prompt signals and physical signatures that develop from underground chemical explosions and associated modeling capabilities. Our work focuses on a primary factor controlling chemical explosion induced signals and signatures: the material properties of the rocks in which the chemical explosion takes place. This document reports on material property determinations of legacy core USGS Test Well F and outcrop analogs for the subsurface stratigraphy for the third phase of SPE in the Rock Valley (RV) area of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The objective of this work is to establish a baseline set of lithologic descriptions and material properties expected prior to observatory borehole drilling in support of the SPE-RVDC (Rock Valley Direct Comparison) experiment. We determine for each rock type the compressional failure envelope, elastic properties as a function of stress (bulk modulus versus mean stress, shear modulus versus shear stress, Young’s modulus versus axial stress and Poisson’s ratio versus axial stress), indirect tensile strength, and porosity. Geologic characterization, both at the core-scale and microscale, provides context for using the data in modeling efforts and to inform interpretations for the material properties testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Insights Into Seismicity Associated With Flexibly Operating Enhanced Geothermal System From Real‐Time Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) have the capacity to broaden the accessible resource pool for geothermal power generation. Traditionally viewed as a “baseload” resource, their flexible operation might also enable dispatchable load‐following generation and long‐term energy storage, aligning them with the evolving landscape of decarbonized electricity systems. However, increasing permeability and extracting energy during EGS operations can induce microseismic events; for many prior EGS efforts, some associated seismicity has been observed. While energetically beneficial, the flexibility of EGS operations prompts our inquiry into whether new types of operations will yield previously unseen seismicity patterns. We demonstrate the use of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) with real‐time edge computing to monitor seismicity during a pilot test of a cyclically operated EGS facility at the Blue Mountain geothermal field. Our focus lies in uncovering seismicity insights from the real‐time microseismic catalog, particularly during load‐following dispatchability tests simulating flexible EGS operation. Here, we find that variations in pore pressure consistently correlate with seismicity, and that controlling pressure cycles during flexible operations appears to constrain microseismic activity during subsequent cycles. The spatio‐temporal evolution of microseismic clouds recorded during cyclic injection cycles fits diffusive models over our available observation period. Additionally, seismicity elevation lags behind pore pressure increases, likely due to pressure diffusion to the fracture system boundary. Through real‐time monitoring, we offer novel insights into seismicity associated with flexibly operating EGS. Our findings suggest that leveraging DAS and edge computing can inform EGS operations and help mitigate induced seismicity.

Chamarczuk, Michal [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (Unite↗

Lightweight Solid Oxide Cell Design for Ammonia-fed SOFC Systems

A lightweight solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) was developed by OxEon Energy that demonstrates the potential for increased specific power (kW/g) suitable for the requirements of electric Vertical Take-off and Landing (eVTOL) applications. Fuel flexibility was demonstrated in button cells and stacks using both legacy electrolyte-supported SOFC structure and the lightweight structure. Button cell and stack performance was nearly identical among hydrogen, ammonia, and reformed natural gas. Durability testing shows similarly stable performance in each fuel. A button cell test in ammonia at 800 °C using the lightweight cell structure measured area specific resistance (ASR) of 0.25 Ω-cm2 in H2/N2 and NH3 fuel feeds and showed a peak power density of 0.98 W/ cm2 in NH3 fuel. Short term hold at 0.7 V showed stable performance.

Pike, Jenna↗

Effects of cold stress on metabolic regulation in the overwintering larvae of the Chinese white pine beetle, Dendroctonus armandi

Abstract The Chinese white pine beetle, Dendroctonus armandi Tsai & Li (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is considered the most destructive forest pest in the Qinling and Bashan Mountains of China. In recent years, winter temperature has dropped in these regions, and extremely low temperatures are hard to survive for insects. Cold hardiness becomes a crucial strategy because temperature change often leads to fluctuations in insect abundance, and the metabolism rate is a key index of resistance to cold in overwintering insects. Therefore, we investigated the relationship between the change in respiratory rate and the activity of metabolism‐related mitochondrial enzymes in D. armandi larvae under cold conditions. We found that the respiratory rate decreased, and it was matched with the activity of glutamate dehydrogenase, aconitase, and lipase during overwintering. Among the various test times under cold conditions, the respiratory rate also decreased with decreasing temperature and increased under very low temperatures. At all cold stress periods, glutamate dehydrogenase and lipase showed increased activity at higher temperatures and decreased activity under lower temperatures, but the activity of NAD‐malic enzyme, NADP‐malic enzyme, mitochondrial isocitrate dehydrogenase, and aconitase were contrary. Under all low temperatures, the activity of enzymes – except for NADP‐malic enzyme, glutamate dehydrogenase, and lipase – increased in short‐term cold stress and decreased in long‐term cold stress at 4, 0, −4, −6, −8, and −10 °C. However, at −2 °C, the activity of enzymes showed a decreasing trend in short‐term treatments and an increasing trend in long‐term treatments, except for mitochondrial isocitrate dehydrogenase. The results not only improve our understanding of the metabolic mechanism of cold adaptation in D. armandi , but also provide an important experimental basis for further study and biological pest control.

Fu, Danyang↗

Monitoring of Temperature Measurements for Different Flow Regimes in Water and Galinstan with Long Short-Term Memory Networks and Transfer Learning of Sensors

Temperature sensing is one of the most common measurements of a nuclear reactor monitoring system. The coolant fluid flow in a reactor core depends on the reactor power state. We investigated the monitoring and estimation of the thermocouple time series using machine learning for a range of flow regimes. Measurement data were obtained, in two separate experiments, in a flow loop filled with water and with liquid metal Galinstan. We developed long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for sensor predictions by training on the sensor’s own prior history, and transfer learning LSTM (TL-LSTM) by training on a correlated sensor’s prior history. Sensor cross-correlations were identified by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient of the time series. The accuracy of LSTM and TL-LSTM predictions of temperature was studied as a function of Reynolds number (Re). The root-mean-square error (RMSE) for the test segment of time series of each sensor was shown to linearly increase with Re for both water and Galinstan fluids. Using linear correlations, we estimated the range of values of Re for which RMSE is smaller than the thermocouple measurement uncertainty. For both water and Galinstan fluids, we showed that both LSTM and TL-LSTM provide reliable estimations of temperature for typical flow regimes in a nuclear reactor. The LSTM runtime was shown to be substantially smaller than the data acquisition rate, which allows for performing estimation and validation of sensor measurements in real time.

Pantopoulou, Stella↗

Evaluation of Desiccation Behavior in Basalt Microfiber–Reinforced Bentonite Clay for Geological Repositories of Nuclear Spent Fuel Using Digital Image Correlation

ABSTRACT Secure storage of nuclear spent fuel (NSF) is of great concern for protecting public health and safety. The preferred long-term solution is underground containment in geological repositories, where one or more engineered barrier materials (EBM) encapsulate the NSF and separate it from the natural rock. Bentonite clay is commonly used as an EBM due to its many advantageous properties including low hydraulic conductivity, which ensures limitation of water infiltration to the system and the subsequent risk of corrosion in NSF canisters. However, bentonite clay subjected to heating from nuclear decay may form desiccation cracking. This study conducted disk-shaped free shrinkage tests and ring-shaped restrained shrinkage tests of bentonite clay samples reinforced with basalt microfibers. Digital image correlation was used as a noncontact full-field displacement measurement to track the time-evolving shrinkage and desiccation cracking phenomena and make quantified comparisons between plain bentonite and bentonite with varying contents of basalt microfibers (i.e., 0.0, 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 % wt.). Results indicate that plain bentonite and basalt microfiber-reinforced samples showed similar free shrinkage behavior, while desiccation cracking behavior was significantly altered by adding basalt microfibers. Microfiber reinforcement effectively reduced major cracks through a “crack-bridging” effect while causing minor cracks to initiate earlier and at higher moisture contents than plain bentonite. Results infer that reinforcing plain bentonite with inorganic microfibers can potentially control desiccation cracking, leading to safer and improved nuclear waste management.

Materials Science↗

Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) test site needs: A joint PNNL-PMEL workshop report

This workshop report summarizes testing and capability needs for marine Carbon Dioxide Removal (mCDR) research identified by researchers from DOE’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) as essential to advancing the state of the science and technology. A one-day workshop was held for 36 hybrid participants on June 2, 2023 at PNNL’s Marine and Coastal Sciences Laboratory in Sequim, WA. The workshop began with DOE and NOAA leadership offering perspectives on the mission alignment and long-term implementation of mCDR research within NOAA’s Office of Ocean and Atmospheric Research (OAR), DOE’s Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO), and DOE’s Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM). As identified by the participants and by program leadership at both agencies, many mCDR strategies are in early stages of development making it difficult to reliably estimate their impact. The essential next step in proving the efficacy, safety, and sustainability of these solutions and identifying market potential requires studies under field-relevant conditions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Correcting for filter-based aerosol light absorption biases at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains site using photoacoustic measurements and machine learning

Abstract. Measurement of light absorption of solar radiation by aerosols is vital for assessing direct aerosol radiative forcing, which affects local and global climate. Low-cost and easy-to-operate filter-based instruments, such as the Particle Soot Absorption Photometer (PSAP), that collect aerosols on a filter and measure light attenuation through the filter are widely used to infer aerosol light absorption. However, filter-based absorption measurements are subject to artifacts that are difficult to quantify. These artifacts are associated with the presence of the filter medium and the complex interactions between the filter fibers and accumulated aerosols. Various correction algorithms have been introduced to correct for the filter-based absorption coefficient measurements toward predicting the particle-phase absorption coefficient (Babs). However, the inability of these algorithms to incorporate into their formulations the complex matrix of influencing parameters such as particle asymmetry parameter, particle size, and particle penetration depth results in prediction of particle-phase absorption coefficients with relatively low accuracy. The analytical forms of corrections also suffer from a lack of universal applicability: different corrections are required for rural and urban sites across the world. In this study, we analyzed and compared 3 months of high-time-resolution ambient aerosol absorption data collected synchronously using a three-wavelength photoacoustic absorption spectrometer (PASS) and PSAP. Both instruments were operated on the same sampling inlet at the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains (SGP) user facility in Oklahoma. We implemented the two most commonly used analytical correction algorithms, namely, Virkkula (2010) and the average of Virkkula (2010) and Ogren (2010)–Bond et al. (1999) as well as a random forest regression (RFR) machine learning algorithm to predict Babs values from the PSAP's filter-based measurements. The predicted Babs was compared against the reference Babs measured by the PASS. The RFR algorithm performed the best by yielding the lowest root mean square error of prediction. The algorithm was trained using input datasets from the PSAP (transmission and uncorrected absorption coefficient), a co-located nephelometer (scattering coefficients), and the Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (mass concentration of non-refractory aerosol particles). A revised form of the Virkkula (2010) algorithm suitable for the SGP site has been proposed; however, its performance yields approximately 2-fold errors when compared to the RFR algorithm. To generalize the accuracy and applicability of our proposed RFR algorithm, we trained and tested it on a dataset of laboratory measurements of combustion aerosols. Input variables to the algorithm included the aerosol number size distribution from the Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer, absorption coefficients from the filter-based Tricolor Absorption Photometer, and scattering coefficients from a multiwavelength nephelometer. The RFR algorithm predicted Babs values within 5 % of the reference Babs measured by the multiwavelength PASS during the laboratory experiments. Thus, we show that machine learning approaches offer a promising path to correct for biases in long-term filter-based absorption datasets and accurately quantify their variability and trends needed for robust radiative forcing determination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Graphene nanoplatelets reinforced cement as a solution to leaky wellbores reinforcing weak points in hydrated Portland cement with graphene nanoparticles improves mechanical and chemical durability of wellbore cements

In this work, to improve the performance of wellbore cement under subsurface environments, graphene nanoplatelets (GNPs) were added in various percentages to Class-H cement slurry. Microstructural characterization of cement slurries cured at 90 °C and 95% RH indicates that GNP modifies the microstructure of hydrated cement by reinforcing pore spaces. As a result, the mechanical properties, such as Young's modulus and axial peak stress, obtained from high temperature triaxial compression tests are significantly improved based on different percentages of added GNPs. Furthermore, the hydrated 1 × 2 inch GNP- Portland cement cores tested under simulated deep wellbore conditions of high-temperature and high pressure (HTHP), appear to have a ductile-like behavior, when compared to a typical brittle nature of Portland cement pastes. From our observations and published data on graphene resistance to fracture, GNP addition to cement is evidently enhancing the flexibility of cement. These improvements would reduce the risks associated with wellbore cement deterioration and a consequent leakage in fossil fuel production, geothermal energy production, CO 2 storage as well as long-term sealing materials in plugging and abandonment of all wellbores at the end of their service life.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The formation and evolution of Ni 2 Cr precipitates in Ni–Cr model alloys as a function of stoichiometry characterized by synchrotron x-ray diffraction

Ni-based alloys containing significant amounts of Cr, may precipitate new phases during long-term service at elevated temperatures. In Ni–Cr model alloys, the formation of Ni 2 Cr has been found to impact the material properties, including the strength and ductility after isothermal aging below the critical temperature of 590°C. In this work, we quantify the formation and evolution of long-range ordering in four Ni–Cr binary model alloys (Ni/Cr = 1.8, 2.0, 2.2, 2.4) after isothermal aging up to 10,000h at temperatures between 373 and 475°C. The alloys were characterized by hardness testing and synchrotron-based x-ray diffraction to quantify the impact of Ni 2 Cr phase fraction and precipitate size on mechanical properties. After 500h of isothermal aging, the formation of Ni 2 Cr was detected in all four alloys at 475°C. In the stochiometric alloy samples (Ni/Cr = 2.0), the formation of Ni 2 Cr was found after 500 and 3000h aging at 418 and 373°C, respectively. We found that the matrix lattice contraction and Ni 2 Cr phase fraction both saturate after early aging times. This is in stark contrast to the hardness and Ni 2 Cr precipitate size that both continue to increase with increasing aging time. Our results highlight that changes in hardness correlate linearly with Ni 2 Cr precipitate size rather than phase fraction. This important structure-property relationship can potentially help define Ni–Cr-based component lifetimes directly through an understanding of how Ni 2 Cr formation impacts strength and ductility. Here, we find that a precipitation hardening model for critical resolved shear stress with weakly coupled dislocations shows good agreement with the material property changes quantified from experimental measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Boosting SNR of cascaded FBGs in a sapphire fiber through a rapid heat treatment

This Letter reports the performance of femtosecond (fs) laser-written distributed fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) under high-temperature conditions up to 1600°C and explores the impact of rapid heat treatment on signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) enhancement. FBGs are essential for reliable optical sensing in extreme temperature environments. Comprehensive tests demonstrate the remarkable performance and resilience of FBGs at temperatures up to 1600°C, confirming their suitability for deployment in such conditions. Here, the study also reveals significant fringe visibility improvements of up to ∼10 dB on a 1-m-long sapphire optical fiber through rapid heat treatment, representing a first-time achievement to the best of our knowledge. These enhancements are vital for improving the SNR and overall performance of optical fiber systems in extreme temperatures. Furthermore, the research attains long-term stability for the cascaded FBGs over a 24-hr period at 1600°C. This research expands our understanding of the FBG behavior in high-temperature environments and opens avenues for developing robust optical fiber systems for energy, aerospace, oil and gas, and high-temperature distributed sensing applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗