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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Long-term ozone and temperature correlations above SANAE, Antarctica

A significant decline in Antarctic total column ozone and upper air temperatures has been observed in recent years. Furthermore, high correlations between monthly mean values of ozone and stratospheric temperature have been measured above Syowa, Antarctica. For the observations reported here, data from TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) aboard the Nimbus 7 satellite have been used to examine the 1980 to 1990 decrease in total column ozone above the South African Antarctic base of SANAE (70 deg 18 min S, 2 deg 21 min W). The cooling of the Antarctic stratosphere above SANAE during this period has been investigated by examining upper air temperatures at the 150, 100, 70, 50, and 30 hPa levels obtained from daily radiosonde balloon launches. Furthermore, these two data sets have been used to examine long-term, medium-term, and short-term correlations between total column ozone and the temperatures at each of the five levels. The trend in SANAE total column ozone has been found to be -4.9 DU/year, while upper air temperatures have been found to decrease at around 0.3 C/year. An analysis of monthly average SANAE total column ozone has shown the decrease to be most severe during the month of September with a trend of -7.7 DU/year. A strong correlation (r(exp 2) = 0.92) has been found between yearly average total column ozone and temperature at the 100 hPa level. Daily ozone and temperature correlations show high values from September to November, at a time when the polar vortex is breaking down.

Bodeker, Gregory E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Long-term changes in composition of solar particles implanted in extraterrestrial materials

Analysis of lunar surface samples for elements implanted therein by solar corpuscular radiation reveals evidence for the following compositional changes over a time period between 1.5 and 3 Gyr: 50-percent decreases in the ratios He-4/Ar-36 and Xe/Ar-36; a 20-percent increase in the ratio He-3/He-4; a 3-percent increase in the ratio Ne-20/Ne-22; and a 50-percent increase in the ratio N-15/N-14. The causes of these changes are not resolved at this time but may include (1) a change in acceleration conditions of the solar wind, (2) a change in flux of solar energetic particles relative to that of the solar wind, and (3) a change in composition of the solar convective zone. There is good evidence for a long-term decrease in the solar-wind flux.

Kerridge, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Long-Term Lunar Radiation Degradation Effects on Materials

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is focused on developing technologies for extending human presence beyond low Earth orbit. These technologies are to advance the state-of-the-art and provide for longer duration missions outside the protection of Earth's magnetosphere. One technology of great interest for large structures is advanced composite materials, due to their weight and cost savings, enhanced radiation protection for the crew, and potential for performance improvements when compared with existing metals. However, these materials have not been characterized for the interplanetary space environment, and particularly the effects of high energy radiation, which is known to cause damage to polymeric materials. Therefore, a study focusing on a lunar habitation element was undertaken to investigate the integrity of potential structural composite materials after exposure to a long-term lunar radiation environment. An overview of the study results are presented, along with a discussion of recommended future work.

Rojdev, Kristina↗
NASA NTRS2021

Analysis of the long-term drift rates and oscillations of Jupiter’s largest vortices

Jupiter’s troposphere is dynamically characterized by a series of alternating eastward and westward jets. Embedded between these alternating jets, large vortices, characterized by their high speed closed circulations can be found in several latitudinal bands. The Great Red Spot (GRS) and the White Ovals (WOS) located at ≈22 and ≈30 degrees south respectively1 are the largest of these vortices. The GRS has undergone significant changes in size, coloration and maximum circumferential wind speed over the last two decades. The three WOS also experienced changes in size, and they merged over time until there was only one remaining, which since then has been formally known as oval BA. Here we used over four decades worth of data from the Database for Object Positions on Jupiter (JUPOS), to investigate the long-term mean longitudinal drift of these largest vortices, and to characterize the deviations from this mean drift. A linear fit to the GRS drift speed for the last two decades gives a rate of change of (3.1 ± 0.4)^(-3°)/day/year. For oval BA we find that its annual drift rate changed from -0.39°/day in 2016 to -0.58°/day in 2020 following a steep trend that is best fitted by a second order polynomial. Regarding oscillations, we find that for the last two decades the GRS has continued to oscillate longitudinally with the same period (90 days) and peak-to-peak amplitude (1.2 degrees longitude) as reported historically. For the WOS, the data prior to 2000 seems to indicate that they presented similar oscillations with periods of ≈158 days and peak-to-peak amplitudes of ≈1.6 degrees. The analysis of the data for oval BA since the year 2000 reveals evidence of an oscillation with a period of ≈138 days and peak-to-peak amplitude of ≈1.6 degrees longitude.

Raúl Morales-Juberías↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-Term Aging in Miscible Polymer Nanocomposites

Here we find that the initial, solvent-cast state of nanoparticles (NPs) in a polymer matrix temporally evolves during thermal annealing such that, at steady state, NPs maximize their distance from each other subject to mass balance constraints. The observed timescales for this unexpected structural reorganization, as probed by small-angle X-ray scattering, are temperature-dependent and can be prohibitively large, especially at temperatures around and below 1.2Tg. X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy measurements during reorganization reveal that the collective NP dynamics slow down with annealing at constant temperature; this is accompanied by changes in the low-frequency regime in macroscopic viscoelastic measurements in equilibrated materials. By ruling out other potential sources for these effects (i.e., electrostatic interactions, adsorbed layers), we attribute these results to a long-ranged repulsive force between the NPs caused by fluctuations in the polymer phase, i.e., the "anti-Casimir" effect proposed by Obhukhov and Semenov [Long-range interactions in polymer melts: The anti-Casimir effect. Phys Rev Lett 2005, 95 (3), 038305]. Thus, our results highlight the important role of long-term, slow NP reorganization on the structure and, subsequently, the properties of polymer nanocomposites (PNCs), even in the case of nominally miscible polymer nanoparticle hybrids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2005

Long-term Measurements of Solar Proton Fluxes (1963-present) and the Subsequent Impact on Stratospheric Constituents

The fluxes of solar protons have been measured by satellites for over forty years (1963-present). Eight Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP) satellites measured solar proton fluxes from 1963-1993 and five NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) were used for the period 1994present. These high energy solar protons precipitate on the Earth's polar atmosphere sporadically, especially during solar proton events (SPEs), which typically last a few days. Solar protons with energies greater than 30 MeV are capable of reaching the stratosphere and causing increases in odd hydrogen (HOx) and odd nitrogen (NOy) constituents at polar latitudes (greater than 60 degrees geomagnetic). The enhanced HOx leads to short-lived ozone depletion (-days) due to the short lifetime of HOx constituents. The enhanced NOy leads to long-lived ozone changes because of the long lifetime of the NOy family in the stratosphere. Several very large SPEs (August 1972, August and October 1989, July and November 2000, September and November 2001, and October 2003) over the 1963-2004 time period were simulated in the GSFC two-dimensional chemistry and transport model and were predicted to cause significant polar upper stratospheric ozone depletion greater than 10%, which lasted for several weeks past the events. Several satellite instruments (BUV, SBUV, SBW/2, SAGE II, HALOE, etc.) have shown constituent changes as a result of SPEs. Long-term (greater than 40 year) model simulations of the influence of the solar protons and satellite measurements during and after some of the very large SPEs will be shown.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Long term integrity for space station power systems

A study was made of the High Temperature Design Codes ASME N47, British R5, and the French RCC-MR Rules. It is concluded that all these codes provide a good basis of design for space application. The new British R5 is the most complete since it deals with the problem of defects. The ASME N47 was subjected longer to practical application and scrutiny. A draft code is introduced, and a proposed draft for high temperature design in which attempts were made to identify gaps and improvements is suggested. The design is limited by creep characteristics. In these circumstances, life is strongly affected by the selected value of the factor of safety. The factor of safety of primary loads adopted in the codes is 1.5. Maybe a lower value of 1.25 is permissible for use in space. Long term creep rupture data for HAYNES 188 is deficient and it is suggested that extrapolation methods be investigated.

Leckie, F. A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

The sensitivity of runoff generation to spatial snowpack uniformity in an alpine watershed: Green Lakes Valley, Niwot Ridge Long-Term Ecological Research station

Seasonal water storage in high-elevation alpine catchments are critical sources of water for mountainous regions like the western U.S. The spatial distribution of snow in these topographically complex catchments is primarily governed by orography, solar radiation, and wind redistribution. While the effect of solar shading is relatively consistent from year-to-year, the redistribution of snow due to wind is more variable–capable of producing snowpacks that have varying degrees of uniformity across these hydrologically-important catchments. A reasonable hypothesis is that a warmer climate will cause snowfall to become more dense (i.e. wetter and heavier), possibly leading to less wind redistribution and thus produce a more uniformly distributed snowpack across the landscape. In this study, we investigate the role of increasingly uniform spatial snowpack distributions on streamflow generation in the Green Lakes Valley Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research station, within the headwaters of the Boulder Creek watershed in Colorado. A set of idealized hydrologic simulation experiments driven by reconstructed snowpacks spanning 2001–2014 show that more a more uniform spatial snowpack distribution leads to an earlier melt-out of31 days on average and tends to produce less total streamflow, with maximum decreases as large as 7.5%. Isolating the role of snowpack heterogeneity from melt-season precipitation, we find that snowpack uniformity reduces total streamflow by as much as 13.2%. Reductions in streamflow are largely explained by greater expo-sure to solar radiation in the uniformly distributed case relative to a more heterogeneous snowpack, with this exposure driving shifts towards earlier snowmelt and changes in soil water storage. Overall, we find that the runoff efficiency from shallower snowpacks is more sensitive to the effects of uniformity than deeper snowpacks, which has potential implications for a warming climate where shallower snowpacks and enhanced sensitivities may be present.

Alpine catchment↗
NASA NTRS2019

Long-Term Ozone Variability and Trends from Reanalyses: Can It Be Done?

Stratospheric ozone concentrations have begun to show early signs of recovery following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments as well as in response to decreasing upper-stratospheric temperatures. Secular trends in stratospheric ozone are modulated by considerable interannual variability and systematic changes in transport patterns that are expected under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially in the lower stratosphere. These factors necessitate the continued close monitoring of stratospheric ozone in upcoming decades, with a special focus on the lower stratosphere.As highly resolved data sets combining a plethora of observations with model simulations atmospheric reanalyses are, in principle, well suited for the task. All major reanalyses generate ozone output. However, significant spurious discontinuities that arise from step changes in the observing systems prevent a straightforward analysis of ozone trends and long-term variability. Building on our recent work, in this presentation we will demonstrate that trend detection is nonetheless possible using the ozone record from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) reanalysis bias-corrected using a chemistry model simulation as a transfer function. Next, we will outline several strategies to reduce artificial discontinuities in the ozone record in future NASA reanalyses. This discussion will be illustrated by an example of joint assimilation of bias-corrected ozone profiles from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite (2004 to present) and the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP) sensors that are expected to operate on future NOAA platforms.

Wargan, Krzysztof↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultra-selective CANAL Polymers for Hydrogen-based Membrane Separations after Long-Term Aging

Hydrogen is a critically important molecule in the chemicals and energy industries, driving the need for efficient purification technologies such as membrane-based separations. However, polymer membranes often suffer from physical aging, leading to decreased gas permeability over time. This study leverages the unique aging behavior of contorted microporous polymers, synthesized via catalytic arene-norbornene annulation (CANAL) polymerization, to enhance molecular sieving for H 2 separations. While prior studies demonstrated a 1000% increase in H 2 /CH 4 selectivity with minimal permeability loss over 150 days, we extend this investigation to hyperaged (∼1 year) CANAL polymers and evaluate their performance under various conditions of industrial relevance. We report a remarkable 6100% increase in H 2 /CH 4 selectivity and a 2400% improvement in H 2 /N 2 selectivity, with only a 55% decline in H 2 permeability. These membranes exhibit excellent long-term stability in binary and ternary gas mixtures and at elevated temperatures. Additionally, extended aging enhances H 2 /CO 2 selectivity beyond the 2008 upper bound due to improved size-sieving. High-temperature permeation experiments and grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations reveal that H 2 permeability increases from 570 to 3500 barrer as the temperature rises from 35 °C to 190 °C, while H 2 /CO 2 selectivity declines from 14 to 3 due to the higher diffusion activation energy of CO 2 . Despite this tradeoff, hyperaged CANAL membranes maintain performance beyond the 200 °C upper bound, having selectivity–permeability performance comparable to many state-of-the-art membranes for H 2 /CO 2 separations. As a result, this study highlights the robustness and industrial viability of ultra-selective CANAL polymers for hydrogen purification, contributing to advancements in clean energy and sustainable separation technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1989

Long-term exposure to zero-g and the gastro-intestinal tract function

The gastrointestinal tract (GIT) function is described with emphasis placed on its important role to smooth, delay, and modify sudden fluid load stress applied to the fluid distribution control system in the body. Two basic components of the GIT are considered: stomach dynamics, which involves storage, mixing, and discharge of food into the intestine after addition of gastric juices; and absorption of water and electrolytes from the small intestine. A dynamic model of these components is described, along with performance characteristics computed consecutively for one g and zero g conditions. The main impact of the zero g condition appears to be through a change in osmotic driven transport across the gut wall. A dramatic change in transport characteristics is predicted with implication for many body systems (the immune system in particular) during long-term exposure to zero g. Experimental measurements in zero g are needed to evaluate these predictions.

Mccormack, Percial D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate and atmospheric deposition drive the inter-annual variability and long-term trend of dissolved organic carbon flux in the conterminous United States

The lateral flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from soils to inland waters and ultimately to the ocean represents a fundamental component of the global carbon cycle. To estimate the DOC flux, we developed an empirical terrestrial-aquatic DOC fluxes model (TAF-DOC). TAF-DOC incorporates various environmental factors (e.g., meteorology, sulfur, and nitrogen deposition) that to-date have not been comprehensively considered or well-represented in existing modeling frameworks. TAF-DOC was applied to estimate spatial-temporal patterns of DOC flux and potential fates across the conterminous United States during the 1985 to 2018 time period. Our results suggest that TAF-DOC successfully characterized spatial-temporal of DOC flux. As expected, the interannual pattern of DOC flux was strongly regulated by precipitation, but the long-term trend was significantly influenced by the rate of atmospheric wet sulfur deposition. From 1985 to 2018, TAF-DOC estimated DOC loading from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems in the conterminous United States to be 33.5 ± 2.2 TgC per year, which was roughly 0.39–0.49% of total soil organic carbon stock estimates. The dominant fate of terrestrially-derived DOC was delivery to the coastal ocean in riverine export (41%), with another 21% buried in sediment and the remaining 12.8 ± 0.4 TgC per year (38%) returned to the atmosphere through outgassing from inland waters. Finally, assuming the quantities of DOC sediment burial and export to the ocean as an annual sink of terrestrially-derived carbon, budget inventories and models that do not account for DOC flux in the conterminous United States will underestimate the net annual carbon sink by as much as 5.5–6.4%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Comparing Sunspot Area and Sunspot Number as Proxies for Long-term Solar Irradiance Variation

Because relevant observations from space began only in 1979 with Nimbus-7, it is impossible to correlate direct measurements of small changes in solar irradiance with terrestrial temperature over a number of solar cycles. Yet there is recent evidence that some feature of solar change over a cycle may have a larger influence on climate than would result from merely introducing the additional amount of heat delivered to Earth's atmosphere at solar minimum. It would be useful to check this possibility over several solar cycles. To do this, we would need a sufficiently reliable proxy for irradiance change that at least survives a test against the space observations. Sunspot area is a fairly straightforward parameter to measure, and is associated with the extent of magnetic activity known to correlate strongly with solar irradiance change. We have tested the use of sunspot area as a long-term proxy for solar irradiance change, using observations made at the Coimbra Solar Observatory, from which we obtain both statistically weighted sunspot numbers and sunspot areas over the period 1980-1992. These are both correlated with solar irradiance values measured from Nimbus-7 spacecraft over the same time period, to see if sunspot area offers affords a strong positive correlation and also a distinct advantage over sunspot number as a useful proxy that can then be compared with terrestrial temperature records. Preliminary results yield a positive correlation of 0.71 for sunspot area, but further tests are being conducted and will be reported.

Jordan, Stuart D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Probabilistic Method of Assessing Carbon Accumulation Rate at Imnavait Creek Peatland, Arctic Long Term Ecological Research Station, Alaska

Arctic peatlands are an important part of the global carbon cycle, accumulating atmospheric carbon as organic matter since the Late glacial. Current methods for understanding the changing efficiency of the peatland carbon sink rely on peatlands with an undisturbed stratigraphy. Here we present a method of estimating primary carbon accumulation rate from a site where permafrost processes have either vertically or horizontally translocated nearby carbon-rich sediment out of stratigraphic order. Briefly, our new algorithm estimates the probability of the age of deposition of a random increment of sediment in the core. The method assumes that if sediment age is measured at even depth increments, dates are more likely to occur during intervals of higher accumulation rate and vice versa. Multiplying estimated sedimentation rate by measured carbon density yields carbon accumulation rate. We perform this analysis at the Imnavait Creek Peatland, near the Arctic Long Term Ecological Research network site at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Using classical radiocarbon age modeling, we find unreasonably high rates of carbon accumulation at various Holocene intervals. With our new method, we find accumulation rate changes that are in improved agreement within the context of other sites throughout Alaska and the rest of the Circum-Arctic region.

carbon accumulation;Imnavait;peatlands;permafrost;↗
NASA NTRS1998

Long-Term file activity patterns in a UNIX workstation environment

As mass storage technology becomes more affordable for sites smaller than supercomputer centers, understanding their file access patterns becomes crucial for developing systems to store rarely used data on tertiary storage devices such as tapes and optical disks. This paper presents a new way to collect and analyze file system statistics for UNIX-based file systems. The collection system runs in user-space and requires no modification of the operating system kernel. The statistics package provides details about file system operations at the file level: creations, deletions, modifications, etc. The paper analyzes four months of file system activity on a university file system. The results confirm previously published results gathered from supercomputer file systems, but differ in several important areas. Files in this study were considerably smaller than those at supercomputer centers, and they were accessed less frequently. Additionally, the long-term creation rate on workstation file systems is sufficiently low so that all data more than a day old could be cheaply saved on a mass storage device, allowing the integration of time travel into every file system.

Gibson, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Health-risk based approach to setting drinking water standards for long-term space missions

In order to develop plausible and appropriate drinking water contaminant standards for longer-term NASA space missions, such as those planned for the Space Exploration Initiative, a human health risk characterization was performed using toxicological and exposure values typical of space operations and crew. This risk characterization showed that the greatest acute waterborne health concern was from microbial infection leading to incapacitating gastrointestinal illness. Ingestion exposure pathways for toxic materials yielded de minimus acute health risks unlikely to affect SEI space missions. Risks of chronic health problems were within acceptable public health limits. Our analysis indicates that current Space Station Freedom maximum contamination levels may be unnecessarily strict. We propose alternative environmental contaminant values consistent with both acceptable short and long-term crew health safety.

Macler, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Solar Drivers of 11-yr and Long-Term Cosmic Ray Modulation

In the current paradigm for the modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), diffusion is taken to be the dominant process during solar maxima while drift dominates at minima. Observations during the recent solar minimum challenge the pre-eminence of drift: at such times. In 2009, the approx.2 GV GCR intensity measured by the Newark neutron monitor increased by approx.5% relative to its maximum value two cycles earlier even though the average tilt angle in 2009 was slightly larger than that in 1986 (approx.20deg vs. approx.14deg), while solar wind B was significantly lower (approx.3.9 nT vs. approx.5.4 nT). A decomposition of the solar wind into high-speed streams, slow solar wind, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs; including postshock flows) reveals that the Sun transmits its message of changing magnetic field (diffusion coefficient) to the heliosphere primarily through CMEs at solar maximum and high-speed streams at solar minimum. Long-term reconstructions of solar wind B are in general agreement for the approx. 1900-present interval and can be used to reliably estimate GCR intensity over this period. For earlier epochs, however, a recent Be-10-based reconstruction covering the past approx. 10(exp 4) years shows nine abrupt and relatively short-lived drops of B to < or approx.= 0 nT, with the first of these corresponding to the Sporer minimum. Such dips are at variance with the recent suggestion that B has a minimum or floor value of approx.2.8 nT. A floor in solar wind B implies a ceiling in the GCR intensity (a permanent modulation of the local interstellar spectrum) at a given energy/rigidity. The 30-40% increase in the intensity of 2.5 GV electrons observed by Ulysses during the recent solar minimum raises an interesting paradox that will need to be resolved.

Cliver, E. W.↗
NASA NTRS2019

NASA's Long-Term Astrophysics Data Archives

NASA regards data handling and archiving as an integral part of space missions, and has a strong track record of serving astrophysics data to the public, be-ginning with the IRAS satellite in 1983. Archives enable a major science return on the significant investment required to develop a space mission. In fact, the presence and accessibility of an archive can more than double the number of papers resulting from the data. In order for the community to be able to use the data, they have to be able to find the data (ease of access) and interpret the data (ease of use). Funding of archival research (e.g., the ADAP program) is also important not only for making scientific progress, but also for encouraging authors to deliver data products back to the archives to be used in future studies. NASA has also enabled a robust system that can be maintained over the long term, through technical innovation and careful attention to resource allocation. This article provides a brief overview of some of NASA's major astrophysics archive systems, including IRSA, MAST, HEASARC, KOA, NED, the Exoplanet Archive, and ADS.

L Rebull↗