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Challenging Implementation and Operations Traditions

The Deep Space Network (DSN) that provides for the communications link between the deep space missions and the science users currently consists of a small set of very large monolithic tracking antennas. This ground-based network includes a total of 12 antennas located in three roughly equidistant longitudes around the earth and utilizes a decentralized approach to it operations. Recently, however, studies have suggested that the number, complexity, and data throughput of the future set of space probes will be increasing dramatically. This demands more performance from the DSN than is currently available. In identifying the architecture for the future DSN required to support this mission set, one concept that proves promising is one that consists of a great many number of much smaller antennas configured in an array. This concept has been supported by the developments in antenna manufacturing technology and the consistent decrease in the cost of electronics required to receive, amplify, and combine signals from deep space probes. Furthermore, it is clear that past developments in the DSN have not benefited from the applications of economies of scale.

ANTENNA ARRAYS↗

Atmospheric variations - Vacillations and index cycles

Zonal indices, momentum flux, and mean and perturbation kinetic energies of the Southern Hemisphere upper troposphere, derived from the EOLE constant density balloon data set, are found to possess strong 18-23 day variations which are statistically significant to a posteriori levels. Cross-spectra and phase relationships suggest that the variation appears as a barotropic interaction between the middle latitude mean westerlies and ultra large-scale perturbations. Long-period and high-amplitude variations in energy conversion between eddy and mean kinetic energies are found which average out in the long term mean to be very small and positive, consistent with previously measured average hemispheric energetics. Furthermore, the variation is shown to possess an ultra-long wave preference. Examination of two independent data sources, time series of total ozone and stratospheric thickness data from the Selective Chopper Radiometer, suggests that the periodicity is a property of general hemispheric motion rather than just a property of the EOLE data set.

Webster, P. J.↗

Evaluation of Matthews-WLR-CH4: A New Wetland, Lake, and Reservoir Methane Emissions Data Set

Methane (CH4) is emitted from a variety of sources, both natural and anthropogenic, and is the second most important greenhouse gas contributing to climate change. Natural wetlands are the largest single contributor to annual global CH4 emissions and other inland water sources, such as lakes and reservoirs, produce CH4 but have received less attention. These emission sources are among the most uncertain components of the global CH4 cycle. These uncertainties stem from numerous issues, including the vast variability in these ecosystems and the sensitivity of CH4 emissions to interannual climate variations. Existing CH4 emission models display large differences in wetland spatial extent and include simplified, or lack all together, wetland-type classifications. Furthermore, CH4 emissions from lakes and reservoirs are typically combined with wetlands, or ignored, on a regional and global scale. Our NASA Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Science (IDS) study is focused on developing a suite of data sets on wetlands, lakes, and reservoirs (WLR) including global distributions of types, CH4-centric classifications, and daily CH4 emission rates (hereafter Matthews-WLR-CH4). This project is unique in that it comprises source-independent emission data for WLR, the first spatially-explicit data set of lake and reservoir CH4 emissions, and wetland emissions comprising numerous different wetland-type classifications.The focus of this study is to perform the initial evaluation of the wetland and lake CH4 emissions data from Matthews-WLR-CH4. This evaluation will focus on the domain of North America and include: 1) estimates of the contribution of wetland and lake sources to total CH4 emissions and atmospheric mixing ratios, 2) comparisons of wetland fraction and CH4 emissions to a suite of existing models (e.g., Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), Global Carbon Project (GCP)), and 3) an accuracy assessment with in situ airborne and tower-based atmospheric CH4 observations when the Matthews-WLR-CH4 emissions are implemented in forward and inverse CarbonTracker-Lagrange (CT-L) CH4 model simulations. Here we will present the new Matthews-WLR-CH4 wetland and lake CH4 emissions data, the initial evaluation of these products, and the path forward for our project.

Reservoir↗

Statistical analysis of mesoscale rainfall: Dependence of a random cascade generator on large-scale forcing

Under the theory of independent and identically distributed random cascades, the probability distribution of the cascade generator determines the spatial and the ensemble properties of spatial rainfall. Three sets of radar-derived rainfall data in space and time are analyzed to estimate the probability distribution of the generator. A detailed comparison between instantaneous scans of spatial rainfall and simulated cascades using the scaling properties of the marginal moments is carried out. This comparison highlights important similarities and differences between the data and the random cascade theory. Differences are quantified and measured for the three datasets. Evidence is presented to show that the scaling properties of the rainfall can be captured to the first order by a random cascade with a single parameter. The dependence of this parameter on forcing by the large-scale meteorological conditions, as measured by the large-scale spatial average rain rate, is investigated for these three datasets. The data show that this dependence can be captured by a one-to-one function. Since the large-scale average rain rate can be diagnosed from the large-scale dynamics, this relationship demonstrates an important linkage between the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and the statistical cascade theory of mesoscale rainfall. Potential application of this research to parameterization of runoff from the land surface and regional flood frequency analysis is briefly discussed, and open problems for further research are presented.

Over, Thomas, M.↗

Occurrence of Large Geomagnetically Induced Currents Within the EPRI SUNBURST Monitoring Network

Space weather, a natural hazard, can adversely impact human technological assets. High-voltage electric power transmission grids constitute one of the most critical technological systems vulnerable to space weather driven geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). One of the major challenges pertaining to the study of GICs over the continental United States has been the availability of GIC measurements, which are critical for validation of geoelectric field and power flow models, for example. In this study, we analyze GIC measurements collected at 17 Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI) SUNBURST transformer locations across the United States for which a GIC value of 10 A or greater was recorded. This data set includes 52 individual geomagnetic storms with Kp index 6 and above during the period from 2010 to 2021. The analysis confirms that there is a good correlation between the number of geomagnetic storms per year and the number of recorded GIC events. Our results also show that about 76% of the top 17 GIC events are associated with the storm main phase, while only 24% are attributed to storm sudden commencements. In addition, it is shown, for the first time, that mid-latitude positive bays can cause large GICs over the continental United States. Finally, this study shows that the largest measured GIC event in the data set was associated with a localized intense dB/dt structure, which could be attributed to substorm activity.

Chigomezyo M. Ngwira↗

Trends in Antarctic Surface Temperatures and Ice Extent from Satellite and Surface Observations

Surface air temperatures observed from stations around Antarctica have indicated predominantly positive trends which are as high as 0.4K per decade along the Antarctic Peninsula. Since the average air temperature during summer in the West Antarctic region is about -6 K, and since most of the stations are near coastal regions, it is important to know whether such trends are due to a local or large scale phenomenon. We analyzed about 19 years of infrared satellite data (1979-1997) to obtain a spatially detailed study of the variability of surface temperatures over the entire Antarctic region. We also analyzed potential impact of temperature changes over the sea ice cover using co-registered and nearly coincident microwave satellite data. The surface temperatures inferred from infrared data are shown to agree well with those observed from the limited number of Antarctic station data with a correlation coefficient of 0.98 and a standard deviation of less than 3K. The 19-year temperature data set shows positive trends of 0.12, 0.68, and 0.41 C per decade in ocean, sea ice and ice sheet surfaces, respectively. The sensitivity of the trend to record length was studied, using long term station data sets, and the results show that the trends start to stabilize at around 2 decades which is about the record length of satellite data. However, interannual fluctuations of the temperatures are large, especially in the ice sheets, and the 95% confidence level for the trends ranges from 0.12 to 1.22 for sea ice and from -0.74 to 1.55 C per decade for the ice sheet. In the sea ice regions, the position of the ice edge in winter with respect to the northernmost position of sea ice during the study period is also shown to be influenced by alternating warm and cold anomalies around the continent. This pattern is similar to that suggested by the presence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) but the wavenumber appears to be predominantly mode 3 (instead of reported mode 2) for the Antarctic region. Unexpectedly, trends in the sea ice extent are found to be positive in most Antarctic sectors during the same period with the exception of the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas region.

Comisc, J. C.↗

Solar Coronal Structure Study

The subject of this investigation is the study the physics of the solar corona through the analysis of the EUV and UV data produced by two flights (12 May 1992 and 25 April 1994) of the Lockheed Solar Plasma Diagnostics Experiment (SPDE) sounding rocket payload, in combination with Yohkoh and groundbased data. These joint datasets are useful for understanding the physical state of the solar atmosphere from the photosphere to the corona at the time of the rocket flights. Each rocket flight produced both spectral and imaging data. Highlights of this initial year of the contract included compilation, scaling and co-alignment of image sets, substantial progress on the Bright Point study, initial work on the Active Region and Large Scale Structure studies, DRSC slit-aspect determination work and calibration activities. One paper was presented at the 1997 Annual Meeting of the AAS/SPD in Bozeman, Montana. An initial set of calibrated spectra were placed into the public domain via the World Wide Web. Three Quarterly Progress Reports have been submitted; progress for the fourth quarter of the contract is summarized in this Final Contract Report. The intent of the investigation is to compare the physics of small- and medium-scale structure with that of large-scale structures with weak fields. A study has been identified in each size domain. The calibration of the rocket data forms an important element of the work. Of equal importance is the slit-aspect solution, which determines the correspondence between locations along the spectrograph slit and points on the solar disk.

Bruner, Marilyn E.↗

Pinatubo Aerosol Evolution: Using Composite Data Sets to Build the Global- To Micro-Scale Picture and Assess Consistency of Different Measurements

This paper brings together experimental evidence required to build realistic models of the global evolution of physical, chemical, and optical properties of the aerosol resulting from the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption. Such models are needed to compute the effects of the aerosol on atmospheric chemistry, dynamics, radiation, and temperature. Whereas there is now a large and crowing body of post-Pinatubo measurements by a variety of techniques, some results are in conflict, and a self-consistent, unified picture is needed, along with an assessment of remaining uncertainties. This paper examines, data from photometers, radiometers, impactors, optical counter/sizers, and lidars operated on the ground, aircraft, balloons, and spacecraft. Example data sources include: (1) Tracking sunphotometers and lidars at Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) and on the DC-8. (2) Particle spectrometers and wire impactors on the ER-2 and DC-8. (3) Dustsondes (particle counter/sizers on balloons). and (3) SAGE II, SAM II, AVHRR, CLAES, and ISAMS sensors on a variety of satellites. We assess the mutual consistency of these disparate data sets and recommend 'consensus' properties and uncertainties in the process of developing a composite data set. Recommended properties include the spatial and temporal evolution of particle chemical composition, shape, wavelength-and temperature-dependent refractive index, size distribution, and optical depth spectra. Supporting references are cited and representative data shown.

Russell, Philip B.↗

Validation of A Simulation Environment for Future Space Traffic Management

This study presents initial results of a newly developed simulation environment intendedto explore and assess future Space Traffic Management (STM) scenarios. The number ofnew Resident Space Objects (RSOs) in near-Earth orbit is expected to increase significantlywith the expected future deployment of a number of large constellations. These futurescenarios involve the addition of many tens of thousands of new RSOs, making the analysisinto their impact on collision risk extend beyond what traditional data-mining of present-dayconjunction data can reliably predict. To address this, a robust simulation environment wasdeveloped that implements a full force-model for orbit propagation, and computes continuousall-on-all conjunction statistics for arbitrarily large catalog sizes and simulation timeframes.Collision avoidance and station-keeping maneuvers can be optionally implemented based onconfigurable user inputs including physical characteristics and spacecraft meta-data (e.g.,commercial/government, owner country, etc.). Constellation build-out and de-orbit scenarioswere also implemented and modeled based on real-data analysis. Validation of the simulationresults was a critical component of the simulation development, and was done using the currentcatalog with comparisons against both public and internal NASA data-sets. The comparisonsdemonstrate that, with the appropriate settings, representative levels of conjunction ratesand probabilities can be obtained, providing confidence that the simulation tool can generatemeaningful outcomes for test scenarios. As an initial demonstration of the tool’s capabilities,year-long simulations with station-keeping were conducted to examine conjunction historiesusing both the current object catalog (5800 active satellites) and a hypothetical 60,000 objectscenario involving five potential large constellations. Output metrics include the number ofconjunction events, estimates of collision consequence (fragmentation), delta-V maneuver costs,and the probability of at least one collision occurring. The results highlight the potential thatthe simulation tool has for incorporating and running performance comparisons between, e.g.,various sets of maneuver guidelines, industry norms, and definitions of risk, with the overallobjective of providing actionable data to STM policy makers. The presentation will providean overview of the simulation development and validation efforts, as well as a discussion ofobservations gathered from the initial simulations performed.

conjunction assessment↗

Validation of IASI Satellite Ammonia Observations at the Pixel Scale Using In Situ Vertical Profiles

Satellite ammonia (NH 3 ) observations provide unprecedented insights into NH3 emissions, spatiotemporal variabilities and trends, but validation with in situ measurements remains lacking. Here, total columns from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) were intercompared to boundary layer NH 3 profiles derived from aircraft- and surface-based measurements primarily in Colorado, USA, in the summer of 2014. IASI-NH 3 version 3 near real-time data set compared well to in situ derived columns (windows ±15 km around centroid, ±1 h around overpass time) with a correlation of 0.58, a slope of 0.78 ± 0.14 and an intercept of 2.1 × 10 15 ±1.5 × 10 15 molecules cm −2 . Agreement degrades at larger spatiotemporal windows, consistent with the short atmospheric lifetime of NH 3 . We also examined IASI version 3R data, which relies on temperature retrievals from the ERA Reanalysis, and a third product generated using aircraft-measured temperature profiles. The overall agreement improves slightly for both cases, and neither is biased within their combined measurement errors. Thus, spatiotemporal averaging of IASI over large windows can be used to reduce retrieval noise. Nonetheless, sampling artifacts of airborne NH 3 instruments result in significant uncertainties of the in situ-derived columns. For example, large validation differences exist between ascent and descent profiles, and the assumptions of the free tropospheric NH 3 profiles used above the aircraft ceiling significantly impact the validation. Because short-lived species like NH 3 largely reside within the boundary layer with complex vertical structures, more comprehensive validation is needed across a wide range of environments. More accurate and widespread in situ NH 3 data sets are therefore required for improved validations of satellite products.

Ammonia↗

Signature extension studies

The importance of specific spectral regions to signature extension is explored. In the recent past, the signature extension task was focused on the development of new techniques. Tested techniques are now used to investigate this spectral aspect of the large area survey. Sets of channels were sought which, for a given technique, were the least affected by several sources of variation over four data sets and yet provided good object class separation on each individual data set. Using sets of channels determined as part of this study, signature extension was accomplished between data sets collected over a six-day period and over a range of about 400 kilometers.

Vincent, R. K.↗

Large-scale structure of the heliospheric magnetic field - 1976-1991

A uniform set of computed large-scale coronal fields derived from photospheric field observations now exists for the interval 1976 to the present. Using this data base we can begin to compare Solar Cycle 21 with Solar Cycle 22. The character of the field and its evolution are the same, but many of the particulars are different. The polar field was about 25 percent stronger at solar minimum in 1986 than in 1976, consequently the heliospheric current sheet was confined to a narrower latitude range. In the rising phase of Cycle 21 a strong 4-sector pattern developed; the same pattern was not present in Cycle 22. Other differences include the timing of the polar field reversals and changes in latitudinal extent of the current sheet.

Hoeksema, J. T.↗

The asymmetric wind of R127

We present optical, linear polarimetry in broad-band UBVRI filters plus narrow-band filters centered on the emission lines of H-alpha and the red forbidden N II and spectropolarimetry in the wavelength range from 4120 A to 6770 A of the luminous blue variable R127 in the LMC. Both observations display a decrease of the percentage polarization across the H-alpha emission line with respect to the continuum. We assume that H-alpha is recombination-line dominated and thus intrinsically unpolarized, and we use the continuum subtracted line polarization to estimate the interstellar foreground polarization. The resulting amount of intrinsic continuum polarization of R127 is very large, of order 1-1.5 percent, implying both the presence of copious free electrons and a considerable asphericity in their distribution. The two data sets, taken two months apart, display significant variations in the continuum polarization, which confirms that the stellar-wind properties of R127 are time-dependent in the maximum state. We discuss several possible wind geometries and present arguments favoring a clumpy, axisymmetric outflow.

Schulte-Ladbeck, R. E.↗

The planetary data system educational CD-ROM

The Planetary Data System (PDS) is producing a special educational CD-ROM that contains samples of PDS datasets and is expected to be released in 1993. The CD-ROM will provide university-level instructors with PDS-compatible materials and information that can be used to construct student problem sets using real datasets. The main purposes of the CD-ROM are to facilitate wide use of planetary data and to introduce a large community to the PDS. To meet these objectives the Educational CD-ROM will also contain software to manipulate the data, background discussions about scientific questions that can be addressed with the data, and a suite of exercises that illustrate analysis techniques. Students will also be introduced to the SPICE concept, which is a new way of maintaining geometry and instrument information. The exercises will be presented at the freshman through graduate student levels. With simplification, some of the material should also be of use at the high school level.

Guinness, E. A.↗

Diffusion of Na and K in the uppermost regolith of Mercury

We examine the conditions under which ions impacting the Hermean surface can act as a regional source of enhanced atmospheric column through ion implantation and subsequent release at the surface. At most latitudes, energetic (a few keV) Na or K ions which impact the nightside surface, are released quickly (well before noon) upon warming of the surface. We show that the relative sunrise/sunset difference produced by ion implantation is ((n)(sub SR) - (n)(sub SS)/(n)(sub Ave) = f, where f is the fraction of the photo-ions recycled, (n)(sub SR) is the average zenith column above the sunrise portion of the illuminated hemisphere, (n)(sub SS) is the average zenith column in the sunset portion, and (n)(sub Ave) is the average column over the sunlit disk. Thus, to produce a large sunrise/sunset difference via ion implantation and subsequent release requires efficient (close to total) recycling. We show that the most extensive set of available data reduced to Na column abundance does not show any sunrise enhancement. We argue that the K data do not permit an unambiguous interpretation in favor of sunrise/sunset differences. We further find that if an efficient surface loss process for the alkali is not operating after sunrise, the initial Na and K distribution will relax into the bulk of the solid. Preserved abundance gradients of Na and K in lunar glasses that the Arrhenius coefficients for impact glasses are likely more modest than those for laboratory glasses derived from rock by nonimpact processes, but the effect of the more modest diffusion rates is only to delay the efficient loss of Na by a few Earth days. We argue that implantation can lead to observable regional increases in the observed Na or K column densities only if it occurs at very high latitudes, where diffusion is slow. It is typically lower energy ions which impact at high latitude and these are both more numerous than the high energy ions and possess smaller average penetration depths; thus there are additional reasons to favor a high-latitude locus for any possible prompt return related increases in zenith column. We find that we cannot rule out sputtering as a source process, as the low-energy ions are efficient sputterers. Finally, we argue that the observed Na/K ratio in the atmopshere may be the expression of their different asymptotic rates of loss from the interiors of the regolith grains. If so, this allows us to fix the importance of sputtering and photon stimulated desorption relative to impact vaporization.

Killen, R. M.↗

Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with ENSO and Tropical Circulations

Tropical precipitation and the accompanying latent heat release is the engine that drives the global circulation. An increase or decrease in rainfall in the tropics not only leads to the local effects of flooding or drought, but contributes to changes in the large scale circulation and global climate system. Rainfall in the tropics is highly variable, both seasonally (monsoons) and interannually (ENSO). Two experimental observational data sets, developed under the auspices of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), are used in this study to examine the relationships between global precipitation and ENSO and extreme monsoon events over the past 20 years. The V2x79 monthly product is a globally complete, 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg, satellite-gauge merged data set that covers the period 1979 to the present. Indices based on patterns of satellite-derived rainfall anomalies in the Pacific are used to analyze the teleconnections between ENSO and global precipitation, with emphasis on the monsoon systems. It has been well documented that dry (wet) Asian monsoons accompany warm (cold) ENSO events. However, during the summer seasons of the 1997/98 ENSO the precipitation anomalies were mostly positive over India and the Bay of Bengal, which may be related to an epoch-scale variability in the Asian monsoon circulation. The North American monsoon may be less well linked to ENSO, but a positive precipitation anomaly was observed over Mexico around the September following the 1997/98 event. For the twenty-year record, precipitation and SST patterns in the tropics are analyzed during wet and dry monsoons. For the Asian summer monsoon, positive rainfall anomalies accompany two distinct patterns of tropical precipitation and a warm Indian Ocean. Negative anomalies coincide with a wet Maritime Continent.

Curtis, Scott↗

Analysis of Small-Scale Atmospheric Gravity Waves Using UARS MLS Radiance Measurements

Gravity waves play an important role in determining atmospheric circulation and small-scale mixing. Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) 63-GHz radiances can be used to calculate small-scale wave variances at 30-80 km altitudes. The major results from this new data set are summarized in the following: (1) MLS radiance fluctuations are contributed mostly by gravity waves of small (about 100 km) horizontal and large (>10 km) vertical scales. (2) MLS observations show that variance enhancements are strongly correlated with the stratospheric polar vortices, tropospheric deep convection zones, and surface topography. (3) As expected for gravity wave propagation, the normalized wave variances grow exponentially with height in the stratosphere but saturate in the mesosphere. (4) The long-term variations of the wave variance are dominated by an annual cycle in the stratosphere and a semiannual cycle in the mesosphere. (5) Separate analyses of the ascending and descending measurements show that the variances are sensitive to wave propagation directions. The subtropical variances, which are associated with deep convection, are likely caused by the gravity waves that propagate upward and eastward in the westward background wind. Additional information contained in the original.

Wu, Dong L.↗

Remote Data Access with IDL

A tool based on IDL (Interactive Data Language) and DAP (Data Access Protocol) has been developed for user-friendly remote data access. A difficulty for many NASA researchers using IDL is that often the data to analyze are located remotely and are too large to transfer for local analysis. Researchers have developed a protocol for accessing remote data, DAP, which is used for both SOHO and STEREO data sets. Server-side side analysis via IDL routine is available through DAP.

Galloy, Michael↗